Landscapes of Risk: The Geography of Fatal Traffic Collisions in Indiana, 2003 to 2011

Potential death from traffic collisions is a common hazard faced by nearly everyone. This analysis uses geographical approaches to examine fatal collision risk in the state of Indiana from 2003 to 2011. The state averaged 757 fatal collisions annually. About 60 percent occurred in urban or suburban areas. Risk was highest in low-density exurban and rural areas and on highways, county roads, and interstates. County sheriffs and state police were more likely to face fatal collisions than municipal police. Significant black spots existed around the Illinois and Kentucky state lines. Fatal collisions were less clustered than nonfatal collisions. Fatal collisions exhibited positive spatial autocorrelation but the global Moran's I for counties was close to random. Approximately 10 percent of ninety-two counties had significant local spatial autocorrelation in fatal collision rates. Police and emergency response resource distributions should be considered in light of fatal collision black spots in the state.     

Scale variance analysis coupled with Moran's I scalogram to identify hierarchy and characteristic scale

Scale variance is highly sensitive to multi-scale patterns of variables, which is advantageous in identifying spatial hierarchy and characteristic scale(s). However, the significance of peak(s) in scale variance cannot be statistically tested, and different spatial patterns may be obtained when different zoning systems are used to calculate scale variance. To address these two problems, this study compared the scale levels with peaks in scale variance and the scale levels at which there were breaks in the nature of spatial autocorrelation as identified by shifts in Moran's I scalogram. The estimates for three simulated landscapes showed that accordance between scale levels identified employing the two methods can be used to evaluate the significance of peaks in scale variance and choose a more reasonable zoning system. The approach of scale variance analysis coupled with Moran's I scalogram was also applied to the Xilin River Basin of Inner Mongolia, China. The most vital characteristic scale (64 × 32 km) identified for the growing-season net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of the basin was validated by other spatial pattern analysis methods such as semi-variogram, Moran's I correlogram, and wavelet variance analyses, and the directionality of the chosen zoning systems was found to be similar to the orientation of actual dominant vegetation type patches. The results demonstrate that Moran's I scalogram can be used to improve the interpretation of the results of scale variance analysis and increase the reliability of scale variance analysis for landscapes having a repetitive patch pattern or gradient variation and that the proposed approach is suitable for identifying the hierarchy and the characteristic scales of patterns or processes. In summary, this study used a simple approach to solve two problems in scale variance analysis, thereby improving the methodology and enhancing the theoretical basis of multi-scale analysis.     

黄河流域县域碳排放的时空格局演变及空间效应机制

利用空间面板模型、空间自相关分析和以区域背景与最近邻状况为空间滞后的空间马尔科夫链对2000—2017年黄河流域县域碳排放时空格局与空间效应进行分析,结果表明：① 2000年以来黄河流域碳排放量激增,由山东全域和陕甘宁蒙交界的高值区向外圈层与轴向扩张,形成东高西低碳排放格局;② 存在“俱乐部趋同”现象,高碳排放县集聚于山东全域和陕甘宁蒙交界,低碳排放县集聚于西南部;2000年与2017年对比发现县域碳排放类型稳定性强,较高碳排放变为较低碳排放的县集中在东南部区域,而相反方向转变的县集中在内蒙古;③ 高碳溢出效应与低碳锁定效应是塑造时空格局的重要作用力,前者作用力更强;区域背景增强了“俱乐部趋同”与被包围异常值趋同,作用力强于最近邻状况,不显著区域内碳排放类型转变概率提高。④ 空间面板模型结果显示年轻人口结构、大经济规模、二产为主产业结构、高生活水平和高公共支出促进了碳排放量增加与空间效应作用,其中经济规模与产业结构是重要驱动因素。     

基于投影寻踪模型的河南县域交通与经济协调性评价

通过建构县域交通优势度与经济发展水平综合评价指标体系,运用投影寻踪模型对2003 年和2008 年河南省各县域单元的交通优势度和经济发展水平进行综合评价与比较。进而采用耦合协调度模型对河南县域交通优势度与区域经济发展水平的耦合协调性进行评价、比较与分类。研究表明,2003-2008 年期间河南省各县市交通优势度与经济发展水平均获得了较大幅度的提升,但区域分异现象还较为突出。县域交通优势度由2003 年的沿主要交通干线带状分布向团块状连片分布态势演进,中原城市群地区县市交通优势度高于外围地区,平原地区县市交通优势度高于山区县市;而县域经济综合发展水平西部普遍高于东部,山区资源县市高于平原农业县市。交通优势度与县域经济耦合作用强度普遍较高,并呈明显的增强态势,但多数地区交通与经济的协调发展度还有待提升,大多数县市交通发展水平超前于经济发展水平。因此,如何在既有的交通优势条件下推进河南县域经济的快速发展,是实现河南交通与经济协调发展的关键问题。     

Spatial and Longitudinal Patterns in County Age-Specific Net Migration in the United States 1950–2010

Many migration studies describe various counties by adopting a priori county typologies, such as the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service county typology, which might not be suitable for identifying different age migration patterns of the U.S. counties. This study employs a spatial clustering method that exhaustively compares all U.S. counties on their age migration similarity and spatial proximity to investigate signature age-specific net migration profiles across six decades of U.S. county age-specific net migration data from 1950 to 2010. All of the six-decade data are integrated into a common spatial county boundary on which counties below a population threshold are merged with the nearest county to mitigate the small population problem in net migration rates. As counties are merged by increasing large population thresholds, the Getis-Ord Gi* spatial autocorrelation statistic is applied to examine how the spatial migration patterns are affected. It is found that U.S. county age-specific net migration profiles exhibit four signature patterns. Although these patterns are persistent across the past six decades, their spatial distributions have experienced dramatic variation. The small population problem in net migration rates affects the extent and location of the significant spatial migration patterns.     

欠发达地区经济空间结构及其经济溢出效应的实证研究--以河南省为例

以县域为基本空间单元,以人均GDP为衡量指标,分析了河南省经济空间结构演变过程,结果表明,20世纪90年代以来,河南省经济正处于空间集聚过程,经济空间结构呈现出明显的中心——外围模式。通过建立模型对河南省经济空间集聚格局的经济增长效应的分析表明,总体上河南省县域间经济增长的空间相关性不显著。只有在高水平县域集聚区,县域经济增长与相邻县域呈显著的正相关关系,表现出区域之间的经济溢出效应。     

Gas exchange responses of a desert herbaceous perennial to variable sunlight in contrasting microhabitats

Over the course of a day, aridland plants experience a range of incident photosynthetic photon flux (PPF) spanning three orders of magnitude. Rapid photosynthetic responses to changes in PPF have large effects on individual plant carbon gain and water use patterns, hence are important to plant distribution and success. We investigated the response over time of photosynthesis (A), stomatal conductance (g), and inter-cellular CO₂ concentration (C_i) to step changes in PPF in a long-lived aridland perennial that typically occurs in two contrasting microhabitats, shade under shrubs of other species and unshaded inter-shrub spaces. An initial rapid response in A and C_i for plants in both microhabitats occurred after abrupt changes in PPF. This was followed by slower changes in these parameters during the rest of the light or dark period. Stomatal conductance responded more gradually to step changes in PPF. The initial increase in A after a dark cycle was significantly greater for plants under shrubs than for plants in inter-shrub spaces, but other changes in A, g and C_i did not differ. We attribute the similar responses in plants from different microhabitats to natural variations in solar radiation and limited selection for differentiation due to population gene pools dominated by plants in the open. Our results support the hypothesis that variable light regimes select for photosynthetic gas exchange processes that closely track changes in incident PPF. Our data also support the hypothesis that gas exchange responses to variable light regimes in aridland plants minimize trade-offs between carbon gain and water loss.     

A global climatology of extreme rainfall rates in the inner core of intense tropical cyclones

The localized rain rate maxima (R_M) of the inner core region of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are investigated using Version 6 of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis data-set from 1998 to 2010. Specifically, this study examines the probabilities of R_M exceeding 25 mm h^?1 (P25) in intense TCs. The 25 mm h^?1 R_M is the 90th percentile of all R_M observations during the study period. The descending order of P25 observed from intense TCs for the six major ocean basins is: the North Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the South Pacific Ocean, the South Indian Ocean, and the East-central Pacific Ocean. The six major basins have been subdivided into 29 sub-basins to discern regional variability of R_M. P25 increases with increasing TC category in all major basins, except for the South Pacific. Sub-basins with intense TCs that produce extreme rainfall rate maxima include the Bay of Bengal, the South Philippine Sea, the East China Sea, the north coast of Australia, southeast Melanesia, and the Northwest Atlantic. Sub-basins with a higher proportion of category 5 (CAT5) observations than category 3 (CAT3) observations tend to have a greater P25 beyond 60 km from the storm center.     

城镇体系等级结构的分形维数及其测算方法*

文章探讨了城镇体系等级结构的分形研究方法。首先,讨论了区域城镇规模分布的Zipf模型,并通过分形退化分析将其应用范围加以拓广,从而与非分形研究接口;第二,引进了分形结构因子,以此开创了城镇体系等级结构的FSF分析;第三,提出了表征城镇体系等级差异的差异度概念和度量方法。文章给出实例说明了各种方法的应用,并比较了三种方法的异同。     

Response of Sandy Lake in Schirmacher Oasis,East Antarctica to the glacial-interglacial climate shift

Freshwater lakes in Antarctica fluctuate from ice-free state (during austral summer) to ice-cover state (during austral winter). Hence the lakes respond instantly to the seasonal climate of the region. The Antarctic seasons respond sharply to the glacial and interglacial climates and these signatures are archived in the lake sediments. A sediment core from Sandy Lake, a periglacial lake located in Schirmacher Oasis of East Antarctica records distinct changes in grain-size, C, N, C/N ratios (atomic), δ¹³C_OM and δ¹⁵N_OM contents during the last 36 ky. The contents of the sedimentary organic matter (OM) proxies (C_org ~ 0.3 ± 0.2%, C/N ratios ~9 ± 5 and δ¹³C_OM ~?18 ± 6‰) indicate that the OM in this lake sediment is a product of mixing of terrestrial and lacustrine biomass. Distinctly lower contents of C_org (~0.2%) and sand (~50%), low C/N ratios (~8) and depleted δ¹³C_OM (~?20‰) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 32–17 ky BP based on Vostok Temperatures) suggest greater internal (autochthonous) provenance of organic matter and limited terrestrial (allochthonous) inputs probably due to long and intense winters in the Antarctic. Such intense winters might have resulted the lake surface to be ice-covered for most part of the year when the temperatures remained consistently colder than the Holocene temperatures. The denitrification within the lake evident by enriched δ¹⁵N_OM (>10‰) during Antarctic LGM might have resulted from oxygen-limitation within the lake environment caused by insulated lake surface. The gradual increases in δ¹³C_OM, C/N and sand content starting at ~11 ky BP and attaining high values (~?11‰, ~10 and ~80% respectively) at ~6 ky BP together suggest a subtle change in the balance of sources of organic matter between algal and macrophyte/bryophyte nearly 8–9 ky later to the beginning of the deglaciation. Thus the seasonal opening-up of the Sandy Lake similar to the modern pattern started with the establishment of the optimum temperature conditions (i.e., 0 °C anomaly) in the Antarctic, prior to which the lake environment might have remained mostly insulated or closed.     

Spatial variability of soil nutrients and GIS-based nutrient management in Yongji County,China

Integrated nutrient management is important for sustainable agricultural production and protecting environment quality and has been widely investigated around the world. In this article the spatial variability of soil nutrients was investigated and a regionalized nutrient management system was developed using geostatistics and geographic information system technologies. A total of 511 GPS-referenced soil samples were taken in Yongji County, Shanxi province, China, and analysed for major soil nutrients: soil total nitrogen (TN), Olsen extractable phosphorus (OLSENP) and extractable potassium (EXTK). Low concentrations of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) were found and they are likely to be the main limiting nutrients for crop growth in this county. Within the county moderate spatial dependence was found for all three soil variables, but at different spatial scales. The spatial distributions of TN, OLSENP and EXTK were estimated by using kriging interpolation. The cropped areas of the county were divided into fertilizer management categories consisting of four classes of TN, three classes of OLSENP and two classes of EXTK. For the targeted crop yields, regionalized fertilization maps of N, P and K in the county were produced using geographic information system. In 3-year field verification trials in two villages the crop yields of the wheat–maize rotation system increased by 10–20%, and farmers' cash income increased by 1550–2610 RMB ha^?1 year^?1 where regional fertilization recommendations were implemented, in comparison with traditional farmers' practices. The regionalized maps are a practical alternative to site-specific soil nutrient management approaches in areas where it is not practical, because of small farm size or other constraints, to use intensive soil sampling and chemical analyses.     

Variable complexity of the US Continental Divide trace

Abstract

Map-view complexity of 65 contiguous segments of the conterminous US Continental Divide trace was evaluated by the divider method, with each segment’s geometry approximated by a fractal dimension (D) value, or two D values applying to fine and coarse scales of inspection. Results support a generalization that D values in the range 1.05–1.12 are typical for drainage divides viewed at regional to national scales. However about 20% of cases reviewed in this study are smoother (D = 1.01–1.04) or more complex (D = 1.13–1.18) traces. Complexities of these watershed boundary segments show no significant correlation with physiographic province or local relief. The primary influence of bedrock lithology and surface process is seen in zones of Quaternary volcanism, where uncommonly smooth and highly complex divide trace segments are more the rule than exception. Uncommonly smooth divide traces are also found descending mountain pediments in areas of parallel drainage, and some of the most tortuous traces are associated with drainage patterns disrupted by non-fluvial processes. Divide trace segments crossing terrain with uniform lithology show decreased complexity, but traces with the broadest range of complexity, including highest D values, occur in areas with moderate, not extreme, degrees of bedrock diversity.     

山西省大同市农业生态气候适宜度评价

文章选择黄土高原边缘,颇具生态地理意义的山西省大同市及所辖7个县区为研究对象,依据该区域1971~2000年的长期实测气象资料,在借鉴前人建立的农业生态气候适宜度动态模型的基础上,经过多次作物实验,尝试性拟合出符合区域特点的典型气候要素适宜度隶属函数;分区计算了农业生态资源指数 、效能指数及利用系数,总结出区域气温及降水量适宜度曲线大致呈 "∩"型分布规律,峰值出现在每年的6~8月之间;日照百分率适宜度曲线呈 "∪"型分布规律,谷值出现在每年的7月。在SPSS统计软件环境中,以各区域累年逐月平均效能指数为分类实体,进行模糊动态聚类,提出研究区农业生态气候适宜度的三种等级模式。     

Determination of grid size for digital terrain modelling in landscape investigations—exemplified by soil moisture distribution at a micro-scale

The central problem of a combined analysis of digital terrain models (DTMs) and other landscape data is determination of a DTM grid size (w) providing a correct study of relationships between topographic variables and landscape properties. Generally, an adequate w is determined by an expert estimate, and solutions are largely subjective. We developed an experimental statistical method to determine an adequate w for DTMs applied to landscape studies. The method includes the following steps: (a) derivation of a DTM set using a series of w_i , (b) performance of a correlation analysis of data on a landscape property and a topographic variable estimated with various w_i , (c) plotting of correlation coefficients obtained versus w, and (d) determination of smoothed plot portions indicating intervals of an adequate w. We applied the method developed to study the ifluence of topography on the spatial distribution of soil moisture (M) at a micro-scale. We investigated the dependence of M on gradient (G), horizontal (k_h ), vertical (k_v ), and mean (H) landsurface curvatures. For DTM derivation, we used 13 values of w_i from 1 to 7m. An interval of adequate w_i for M falls between 2.25 and 3.25m in the given terrain conditions. In absolute magnitudes, correlation coefficients are largest within this interval; correlation coefficients of M with G, k_h , k_v and H are 0.28, 0.52, 0.50 and 0.60, respectively, for w = 3m. The results obtained demonstrate that the method actually works to identify an adequate w at a micro-scale. The method developed allows estimation of an adequate area of landform which realise a topographic control of landscape properties.     

Modeling the morphology of gully cross sections in the Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley

Abstract

Characterizing gully cross sections (GCs) is essential for calculating the volume and erosion rate of the gully. However, little research has focused on modeling the morphology of GCs. This study investigated 456 GCs with a laser distance meter located at the mouth, middle, and head of 152 gullies in the Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley of China; mapped them with AutoCAD software; fitted them with 2nd–6th degree polynomial functions, and discussed the correlation between the coefficients and the morphology of GCs. The results showed that: (1) using a 2nd-degree polynomial function (y = ax² + bx + c) to describe the morphology of GCs produced a better result than other polynomial functions; (2) the coefficient a of 2nd-degree polynomial function was correlated with depth (r = ?0.226, p < 0.01), gradient (r = 0.545, p < 0.01), and activities; and (3) the symmetry axis (?b/2a) of 2nd-degree polynomial function increased with gully change from left-deflection to right-skewed, and the absolute value showed the asymmetrical degree (r = 0.216, p < 0.01). This study will not only help to understand the morphology and evolution of gullies, but will also provide a scientific basis for prevention of gully erosion.     

1995-2010年山东省粮食单产变化空间分异及均衡增产潜力

以县域为基本空间单元,采用GIS 空间分析和ESDA方法,对山东省1995-2010 年间县域粮食单产空间格局变化进行了分析,在此基础上,结合全国农业生态区划,分析山东省粮食均衡增产潜力。结果表明:① 山东省县域粮食单产水平之间的差异整体上呈现出先增大后减小的趋势。鲁北和鲁西北平原农业生产基础差,单产增长速度最快;鲁西南平原农业生产基础差,单产增长速度较慢;鲁中南丘陵和山东半岛农业生产基础好,单产增长速度较慢;② 县域粮食单产变化的Global Moran's I 值为0.5708,表明单产变化的区域分布并非完全随机,而是表现出明显的空间集聚特征,4 种集聚类型中,“H-H”类型区和“L-L”类型区占主导,“H-H”类型区主要分布在鲁北和鲁西北平原,“L-L”类型区主要分布在鲁西南平原、鲁中南丘陵和山东半岛;③ 全省可划分为4 个一级、9 个二级均衡增产类型区,粮食单产增产潜力鲁北和鲁西北平原>鲁中南丘陵>山东半岛>鲁西南平原;总产量增产潜力约为9.50×10⁶ t,其中鲁中南丘陵>鲁北和鲁西北平原>鲁西南平原>山东半岛。     

MODELLING LONG‐TERM SUMMER AND WINTER BALANCES AND THE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY OF STORBREEN,NORWAY

Measurements of winter balance (b_w) and summer balance (b_s) have been carried out at Storbreen since 1949. Here we apply a simple mass balance model to study the climate sensitivity and to reconstruct the mass balance series priorto 1949. The model is calibrated and validated with data from an automatic weather station (AWS) operating in the ablation zone of Storbreen since 2001. Regression analysis revealed that b_w was best modelled using precipitation data southwest of the glacier. Results from the model compared well with reported mass balance values for the period 1949–2006, obtained correlations (r) for b_w and b_s varied between 0.83 and 0.87 depending on model set up. Reconstruction of the mass balance series for the period 1924/1925–1948/1949 suggested a cumulative mass deficit of c. 30 m w.e. mainly due to highly negative summer balances, but also lower b_wthan the average for 1949–2006. Calculated change in specific mass balance for a ±1°C change in air temperature was ±0.55 m w.e., whereas a ±10 % increase in precipitation represented a change of ±0.20 m w.e. Model results further indicated that for a 2°C warming, the ablation season will be extended by c. 30 days and that the period of ice melt at the AWS location will increase from c. 40 to c. 80 days.     

Subfossil Cladocera from surface sediment in thermokarst lakes in northeastern Siberia,Russia, in relation to limnological and climatic variables

Subfossil Cladocera were sampled and examined from the surface sediments of 35 thermokarst lakes along a temperature gradient crossing the tree line in the Anabar-river basin in northwestern Yakutia, northeastern Siberia. The lakes were distributed through three environmental zones: typical tundra, southern tundra and forest tundra. All lakes were situated within the continuous permafrost zone. Our investigation showed that the cladoceran communities in the lakes of the Anabar region are diverse and abundant, as reflected by taxonomic richness, and high diversity and evenness indices (H = 1.89 ± 0.51; I = 0.8 ± 0.18). CONISS cluster analysis indicated that the cladoceran communities in the three ecological zones (typical tundra, southern tundra and forest-tundra) differed in their taxonomic composition and structure. Differences in the cladoceran assemblages were related to limnological features and geographical position, vegetation type, climate and water chemistry. The constrained redundancy analysis indicated that T_July, water depth and both sulphate (SO₄ ^2?) and silica (Si⁴⁺) concentrations significantly (p ≤ 0.05) explained variance in the cladoceran assemblage. T_July featured the highest percentage (17.4 %) of explained variance in the distribution of subfossil Cladocera. One of the most significant changes in the structure of the cladoceran communities in the investigated transect was the replacement of closely related species along the latitudinal and vegetation gradient. The results demonstrate the potential for a regional cladoceran-based temperature model for the Arctic regions of Russia, and for and Yakutia in particular.     

Time series forecasting of river flow using an integrated approach of wavelet multi-resolution analysis and evolutionary data-driven models. A case study: Sebaou River (Algeria)

The complexity of hydrological processes and lack of data for modeling require the use of specific tools for non-linear natural phenomenon. In this paper, an effort has been made to develop a conjunction model – wavelet transformation, data-driven models, and genetic algorithm (GA) – for forecasting the daily flow of a river in northern Algeria using the time series of runoff. This catchment has a semi-arid climate and strong variability in runoff. The original time series was decomposed into multi-frequency time series by wavelet transform algorithm and used as inputs to artificial neural networks (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models. Several factors must be optimized to determine the best model structures. Wavelet-based data-driven models using a GA are designed to optimize model structure. The performances of wavelet-based data-driven models (i.e. WANFIS and WANN) were superior to those of conventional models. WANFIS (RMSE = 12.15 m³/s, EC = 87.32%, R = .934) and WANN (RMSE = 15.73 m³/s, EC = 78.83%, R = .888) models improved the performances of ANFIS (RMSE = 23.13 m³/s, EC = 54.11%, R = .748) and ANN (RMSE = 22.43 m³/s, EC = 56.90%, R = .755) during the test period.     

Spatial distribution and morphologic characteristics of gullies in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China: Hebei watershed

Gully erosion in the Black Soil Region of China has posed a threat to food security. This study aimed to determine the spatial distribution and morphologic characteristics of gullies in the region and their topographic thresholds. A 28 km² watershed was surveyed and 117 gullies measured. The results showed that: (1) Gullies were distributed equally on both hillslope and valley floor positions, with a total gully density of .66 km/km². (2) The mean depth, width, and cross-sectional area of gullies were .74 m, 2.39 m, and 2.43 m², respectively. These characteristics varied among gullies according to their topographic positions and slope gradients. Individual gully volume (V) was well predicted from gully length (L) by V = 2.08L^0.96 (r² = .66). Total gully volume (V) of each sub-watershed was predicted from mean slope gradient (S) and drainage area (A) as V = 275800S ? 8600A (r² = .73). (3) Gully erosion was more serious in steeper sub-watersheds and steeper hillslope positions. Gullies were wider in regions with relatively larger drainage areas, except for those developed in the main valley. The topographic threshold for gully initiation was S = .10A^?0.34, which indicated gully erosion was dominated by surface runoff. (4) Human activities, such as road construction, played a significant role in gully erosion.