An individual cognitive evacuation behaviour model for agent-based simulation: a case study of a large outdoor event

Route selection is a complex issue in simulating the pedestrian’s walking behaviour during the evacuation. In many current studies, the agent-based model has been widely used to simulate the individualized behaviour, and growing concern is given to the cognitive aspects in route selection. However, the influence of incomplete spatial knowledge and the preferences for different routing strategies has not been fully considered. To represent more reliable route choice by different pedestrians, this study presents an individual cognitive evacuation behaviour model which is mainly focusing on the individual differences in routing strategy and spatial knowledge. The model consists of two major components, namely the multiple routing strategies and personalized spatial cognitive road network. Based on a review of the previous studies, the potential factors that may affect the evacuation behaviour were discussed. The quantitative relationships between these potential factors and the pedestrian’s routing preference, as well as the possibilities of recognizing different roads, were explored using the regression method. As a case study, the proposed model was implemented using the data collected from a field survey of a real outdoor event. When applied in an agent-based simulation, the implemented model will support more reliable simulation of route choices corresponding to the pedestrians’ behaviour in the real event.     

Integrating GIS and data warehousing in a Web environment: A case study of the US 1880 Census

While the business intelligence sector, involving data warehouses and online analytical processing (OLAP) technologies, is experiencing strong growth in the IT marketplace, relatively little attention has been devoted to the problem of utilizing such tools in conjunction with GIS. This study contributes to the development of this research area by examining the issues involved in the design and implementation of an integrated data warehouse and GIS system that delivers analytical OLAP and mapping results in real‐time across the Web. The case study chosen utilizes individual records from the US 1880 population census, which have recently been made available by the North Atlantic Population Project. Although historical datasets of this kind present a number of challenges for data warehousing, the results indicate that the integrated approach adopted offers a much more flexible and powerful analytical methodology for this kind of large social science dataset than has hitherto been available.     

区域创新集群发展的关键要素及作用机制研究——以日本创新集群为例

在分析创新集群的构成与创新机制的基础上,从外部环境、构成主体等4个方面讨论了创新集群与产业集群的区别。以日本创新集群发展为例,分析创新集群的关键创新要素及作用机制,研究发现:在知识经济和经济区域化发展背景下,区域创新集群已成为促进区域产业升级与提升竞争力的核心力量;在创新集群发展中,领先企业的创新主导与示范作用突出,但又通过技术权力以技术锁定、标准控制等各种不同方式实施技术控制,影响中小型企业及其他研发机构发挥创新作用;在技术传播中,技术扩散、技术转移、技术溢出同时存在,在不同主体、不同阶段、不同空间尺度之间的途径与作用效果不同,畅通的技术通道保证了创新的共创共享;社会网络以社会文化、制度基础保障了各成员主体间经济学意义上最经济的创新合作与交流;创新平台构建了多要素、多功能、多层次的创新系统,体现了创新集群的整体创新优势。此外,行业协会也是创新集群形成与发展的重要基础。     

天山北坡经济带“三生空间”发展格局与智能水网体系建设

天山北坡经济带是新疆生产力集中度较高,现代工业、农业、交通信息、教育科技等较为发达的区域,是国家丝绸之路经济带建设的核心区,对新疆经济社会发展具有重要的带动和辐射作用,国内生产总值均占全疆53%以上,工业增加值占全疆67%,城镇化率68.9%,远高于全疆42.1%的平均水平,然而水资源却仅占11%。为破解资源性缺水困境而实施的"两河调水"工程正在陆续建成发挥效益,如何优化配置原水与客水、高水与低水、地表水与地下水等各种水源,统筹协调区域、城乡、兵地、产业、经济社会与生态环境等各种需求,已成为亟待研究决策的重大现实问题。通过分析天北带水资源可利用量、生态环境需水量、水资源开发利用现状及存在问题,结合调水工程新增水量,提出了水资源优化配置的原则、贯彻新时期"十六字"治水思路和"五大"发展理念的实践路径与综合调控措施,主要学术观点和结论为:(1)结合"两河调水"工程,在天山北坡建设东西连通的输水大通道,将由南向北流的逐条河流交叉连接起来,形成一个南北交汇,东西贯通,覆盖整个区域的"大水网",实现全域水源优化配置。(2)按照"以水定地,以水定产,以水定城,适水发展"的原则,强化国土空间管控,按...     

Development of a Journal: Some brief comments relating to the Part Index for the Australian Geographer, 1928-98

This commentary concentrates on the physical production of the Australian Geographer and developments of a related nature. As I cannot pretend to have read every paper published over the last 71 years, comment on content is very limited. I also wish to avoid overlap with already published retrospectives included in Volume 19, Number 1, and Volume 27, Number 1, of this journal. A full issue-by-issue index is included in Volume 30, Number 1, of the Australian Geographer (pp. 103-26): all major papers, but not some minor pieces, are listed. Some of the latter, when part of a series, are listed in Tables 1 to 4 in this commentary. A full alphabetical author index for the 71 years of the journal will be included in the next issue (July 1999) as Appendix B.     

Human geography and its relationship to GIS: a perspective from the vantage point of GIS

Concern abounds over what is a never ending sequence of paradigm shifts within human geography. One result is the marginalisation of previous work. Considerable concern has been expressed among those working with geographical information systems (GIS) over the relationship of this area of work to human geography. Behind much of this turmoil is the ascendancy of post‐modernism, an approach with which many human geographers are unable to actively engage in debate. At a time when the other social sciences are incorporating space into their research, human geography and GIS are parting company with the two facing very different futures.     

补偿标准参照的比较:机会成本与环境收益——以石羊河流域生态补偿为例

流域生态补偿是当前生态经济研究的热点问题。在简要说明流域内生态系统服务与流域生态补偿的关系之后,从理论上分析了流域生态补偿标准的环境收益参照——机会成本变为环境收益,并以石羊河流域生态恢复目标为例开展实证,在考虑补偿总预算约束下,比较采用两种补偿标准参照生态补偿机制运行的效果。结果表明:采用环境收益代替机会成本作为补偿标准参照,对于提高农户参与生态补偿的积极性、保护生态系统服务行为的约束性作用明显;引入以机会成本与环境收益比值确定的优先补偿指标,在生态补偿资金预算约束下替代机制对完成既定生态恢复目标有显著促进作用。     

基于粮食安全的中国能源可持续发展:机遇和挑战(英文)

中国能源安全形势日益严峻,机遇与挑战并存。生物质能发展具备资源丰富、产品多元化、循环利用和增加农民收入的显著优势,加快生物质能开发对保障中国能源供给安全极为重要。本文通过运用灰色关联分析方法,对中国生物质能开发与粮食安全之间的关系进行定量评价。结果显示我国生物质能开发对粮食安全的影响并不明显,中国的粮食安全主要受其农业生产条件限制。但这并不意味着中国生物质能可以不受限制的发展,中国发展生物质能需综合平衡多种因素,如短期内大量投资、生物质供应的激烈竞争。清洁、可持续是中国生物能源发展的重要方向。     

汽车产业园区生态化模式研究与应用——以长春市汽车产业开发区为例

汽车产业属于资源和能源消耗型产业,作为长春市支柱产业的汽车产业在推动长春市经济发展的同时也引发了相应的环境问题,长春市汽车产业开发区是具有较高产业集聚度的汽车产业共生体,可以作为生态产业园区建设的良好载体,研究其生态化改造,对长春市汽车产业的可持续发展具有重要意义。因此综合国内外生态产业园区规划的方法与手段,基于长春汽车产业开发区现有的产业发展基础及资源回收与综合利用体系,通过生态链设计和系统集成对长春市汽车产业开发区生态化改造进行了总体框架设计,并在此基础上对生态功能划分、代谢分析和物质平衡核算以及空间布局进行了研究,最后在对园区建设的效益予以估算及评价的基础上提出生态产业园区未来发展可能存在的问题及初步的对策建议。     

‘The forest is our inheritance’: An introduction to Semai Orang Asli place‐naming and belonging in the Bukit Tapah Forest Reserve

The forest realm of the Gòòl‐War watershed of southeast Perak, Malaysia holds much socio‐cultural significance to the Semai Orang Asli communities living along these rivers. Notwithstanding its present‐day location within the Bukit Tapah Forest Reserve, the forest continues to be where Semai conceptions of history and lore are encoded in the geographical particulars of the landscape. A thriving forest‐dependent lifestyle maintains and transmits Semai place knowledge, observed in this research through people's command of ancestral place‐names. This paper provides an introduction to Semai toponymy and considers the implications of indigenous place‐names on the protection of indigenous homelands and ways of life.     

公众对黑河流域生态系统服务消费偏好及支付意愿研究——基于选择实验法的实证分析

运用选择实验法研究了黑河流域居民对流域生态系统服务的消费偏好及其支付意愿,并结合Mixed logit模型和潜类别模型分别从连续和离散的视角对消费者偏好的异质性进行了检验和实证研究。研究发现：① 黑河流域居民对流域生态系统服务的改善存在显著的异质性偏好,且流域居民从流域水质改善中能获得最大的效用,生态导向型消费者对平均扬沙天气情况改善存在显著偏好,娱乐享受型消费者对流域休闲娱乐条件改善存在显著的偏好。② 黑河流域居民对河流水质、东居延海水面面积和休闲娱乐条件改善3个属性指标具有显著的支付意愿,且对河流水质改善的支付意愿最大,为133.91元/（a·户）。③ 黑河流域居民愿意为流域生态系统服务改善的整体支付意愿为473.16元/（a·户）。     

Laboratory experiments and thermal calculations for the development of a next-generation glacier-ice exploration system: Development of an electro-thermal drilling device

A next-generation drilling system, equipped with a thermal drilling device, is proposed for glacier ice. The system is designed to penetrate glacier ice via melting of the ice and continuously analyze melt-water in a contamination-free sonde. This new type of drilling system is expected to provide analysis data in less time and at less cost than existing systems. Because of the limited number of parameters that can be measured, the proposed system will not take the place of conventional drilling systems that are used to obtain ice cores; however, it will provide a useful method for quickly and simply investigating glacier ice.An electro-thermal drilling device is one of the most important elements needed to develop the proposed system. To estimate the thermal supply required to reach a target depth in a reasonable time, laboratory experiments were conducted using ice blocks and a small sonde equipped solely with heaters. Thermal calculations were then performed under a limited range of conditions. The experiments were undertaken to investigate the effects of the shape and material of the drill head and heater temperature on the rate of penetration into the ice. Additional thermal calculations were then performed based on the experimental results.According to the simple thermal calculations, if the thermal loss that occurs while heat is transferred from the heater to ice (in melting the ice) is assumed to be 50%, the total thermal supply required for heaters in the sonde and cable is as follows: (i) 4.8 kW (sonde) plus 0 W (cable) to penetrate to 300 m depth over 10 days into temperate glacier ice for which the temperature is 0 °C at all depths and to maintain a water layer along 300 m of cable; (ii) 10 kW (sonde) plus 19–32 kW (cable) to penetrate to 1000 m depth over 1 month into cold glacier ice for which the temperature is −25 °C at the surface and 0 °C at 1000 m depth and to maintain a water layer along 1000 m of cable; and (iii) 19 kW (sonde) plus 140–235 kW (cable) to penetrate to 3000 m depth over 2 months into an ice sheet for which the temperature is −55 °C at the surface and 0 °C at 3000 m depth and to maintain a water layer along 3000 m of cable. The thermal supply required for the cable is strongly affected by the thickness of the water layer, cable diameter, and the horizontal distance from the ice wall at which the ice temperature was maintained at its initial temperature. A large thermal supply is required to heat 3000 m of cable in an ice sheet (scenario (iii) above), but penetration into glacier ice (scenarios (i) and (ii) above) could be realistic with the use of a currently employed generator.     

Publication of new and revised taxa: a guide to the International Code of Botanical Nomenclature for Diatomists

As revision of diatom taxonomy has become crucial to many recent palaeolimnological studies, the number of nomenclatural changes required has increased. Publication and validation of new names for diatoms is governed by a set of principles published periodically and known collectively as the International Code of Botanical Nomenclature. Creation of a computerised taxonomic database, designed to record recent nomenclatural changes, has revealed many of the names published to be invalid as they fail to comply with all requirements of the code. This paper outlines briefly the criteria needed to validly publish new or revised taxa.     

Development of a diatom-based specific conductivity model for the glacio-isostatic lakes of Truelove Lowland: implications for paleoconductivity and paleoenvironmental reconstructions in Devon Island lakes, N.W.T., Canada

Diatoms are identified and enumerated from the surface sediments of 100 lakes of Truelove Lowland, Devon Island, N.W.T., Canada. These lakes range from large oligotrophic lakes, to small tundra ponds, to coastal marine lagoons which are diverse in terms of ionic concentration and composition. The relationship between diatoms and 15 limnological variables is examined using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Specific conductivity is identified as the most important variable influencing the distribution of diatoms in the Truelove lakes. A Weighted Averaging (WA) calibration model is developed to predict diatom-inferred specific conductivity. The reliability of the model is tested by evaluating the correlation between observed and diatom-inferred values and determining the error of prediction by bootstrapping. The applicability of the predictive conductivity equation is demonstrated by reconstructing the paleoconductivity history of Fish Lake.     

Recent water quality trends and a comparison to sediment-core records for two riverine lakes of the Upper Mississippi River basin: Lake St. Croix and Lake Pepin

Long-term water quality monitoring data from two riverine lakes in the Upper Mississippi River basin, Lakes St. Croix and Pepin, were analyzed to compare the long-term average water quality conditions and land use distributions, water quality trends and loads at lake inlets and outlets, trends from long-term versus short-term monitoring records, and the ability of paleolimnological cores to accurately infer lake water quality conditions. During the 1976–2004 period, the long-term average concentrations of nutrients, suspended solids, and chlorophyll-a were consistently lower at the Lake St. Croix inlet versus the Lake Pepin inlet, which drains a greater proportion of urban and agricultural runoff. Despite these differences, nutrient trends were similar at the inlets to both lakes; reductions in total phosphorus and ammonium concentrations were attributed to improvements in point source technologies, whereas increasing nitrate concentrations were attributed to both point source changes and nonpoint source increases. Despite improvements in several water quality variables, nitrate concentrations are increasing in both lakes, sediment trends indicate persistent nonpoint source inputs to Lake Pepin, and current total phosphorus concentrations remain well above pre-1950s levels in both lakes. Since urban development and agriculture are increasing in the Lake St. Croix and Lake Pepin Watersheds, continued point source regulation and additional nonpoint source control efforts will be needed to further improve water quality in these lakes. The 1976–2004 trends for most water quality variables were similar at inlet versus outlet sites on Lake St. Croix. Trends at Lake Pepin inlet versus outlet sites were less similar, but data availability limited the comparison to the 1993–2003 period. While the truncated data record highlighted short-term trends in both lakes, the full data record was most useful for exploring general patterns in water quality. Length of monitoring record affected our ability to detect trends at the inlets to both lakes, and altered the magnitude of detected trends. During the two decades of the 1980s and 1990s, paleolimnological estimates of retained phosphorus loads were similar to those estimated from recent water quality monitoring. These similarities support the use of paleolimnological approaches to infer past water quality conditions in Lakes St. Croix and Pepin. This is one of eight papers dedicated to the “Recent Environmental History of the Upper Mississippi River” published in this special issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology. D. R. Engstrom served as guest editor of the special issue.     

Linking Urban Field Theory with Gis and Remote Sensing to Detect Signatures of Rapid Urbanization on the Landscape: Toward a New Approach for Characterizing Urban Sprawl

The effect on travel time of the decentralization of land use is an unresolved issue in the literature on travel behavior. Here we report our testing of the contention that commute times are lower in polycentric than in monocentric urban systems with data from the 1998 Netherlands National Travel Survey. Multilevel regression analysis indicates that the role of urban form variables in the explanation of commute times is limited in comparison with micro-level personal and household characteristics. Car commute times are shown to be higher in most poly-centric systems. In addition, car commute times tend to increase with higher residential densities and with the size of daily urban systems (DUS). The results suggest that the relocation of residences and employment in the Netherlands has not by and large led to lower commute times. One reason for this might be the strong spatial planning tradition in the Netherlands.