多源地理大数据支撑下的地理事件建模与分析

地理事件作为描述地理过程的基本单元,逐渐成为地理信息科学（GIS）核心研究内容。由于受人类活动数据获取限制,GIS对地理事件的建模和分析主要关注事件所引起的地理空间要素变化及要素之间的相互影响与作用机制。然而,近年来随着基于位置服务数据（LBS）爆炸式的增长和人类活动大数据定量刻画手段的快速发展,地理事件对人类活动的影响以及公众对地理事件的网络参与度都引起了多个领域的广泛关注,对地理事件的时空认知、建模方法和分析框架提出了巨大的挑战。对此,本文首先深入分析了大数据时代地理事件的概念与分类体系;其次,基于地理事件的时空语义给出了基于图模型的事件数据建模,建立了事件本体及其次生或级联事件的“节点—边”表达结构,开展了事件自身时空演化及其前“因”后“果”的形式化描述;第三,从时空数据分析与挖掘的角度,给出了大数据时代地理事件建模与分析的整体框架,拟突破传统“地理实体空间”事件探测与分析方法的局限性,融合“虚拟空间”事件发现与传播模拟思路,实现多源地理大数据支撑下的面向地理事件的人类活动多尺度时空响应与区域差异分析;最后,本文以城市暴雨事件为例诠释了本文所提出的地理事件建模与分析方法,从城市和城市内部两个尺度进行了暴雨事件与人类活动的一致性响应及区域差异分析,得到了明确的结论,验证了前文分析框架的可行性与实用性。     

The simulation of surface flow dynamics using a flow-path network model

This paper proposes a flow-path network (FPN) model to simulate complex surface flow based on a drainage-constrained triangulated irregular network (TIN). The TIN was constructed using critical points and drainage lines extracted from a digital terrain surface. Runoff generated on the surface was simplified as ‘water volumes’ at constrained random points that were then used as the starting points of flow paths (i.e. flow source points). The flow-path for each ‘water volume’ was constructed by tracing the direction of flow from the flow source point over the TIN surface to the stream system and then to the outlet of the watershed. The FPN was represented by a set of topologically defined one-dimensional line segments and nodes. Hydrologic variables, such as flow velocity and volume, were computed and integrated into the FPN to support dynamic surface flow simulation. A hypothetical rainfall event simulation on a hilly landscape showed that the FPN model was able to simulate the dynamics of surface flow over time. A real-world catchment test demonstrated that flow rates predicted by the FPN model agreed well with field observations. Overall, the FPN model proposed in this study provides a vector-based modeling framework for simulating surface flow dynamics. Further studies are required to enhance the simulations of individual hydrologic processes such as flow generation and overland and channel flows, which were much simplified in this study.     

基于景观生态安全格局构建的城镇空间扩展模式研究——以江苏沿海地区为例

基于景观生态学的“格局-过程”理论,对维护江苏沿海地区地形地貌、水源涵养、生物多样性、游憩景观等生态系统服务的单一安全格局进行构建;根据“最小-最大约束”准则,通过镶嵌运算进行叠加,构建综合生态安全格局。运用MCR模型,设置并比对“生态安全模式”“经济发展模式”和“生态与经济协调模式”等不同模式对城镇空间扩展的影响,识别需严格保护的低安全水平区和未来城镇空间重点开发的高安全水平区。研究得出：“生态保护与经济发展”协调型模式更好平衡“生态-社会-经济”效益,合理确定城镇建设和产业发展空间,是城镇健康有序发展的最优模式。     

基于ESSG的空间轨道目标管理与碰撞检测方法

随着航天科技的快速发展,大量的空间目标(航天器与空间碎片)占用了有限的轨道资源,极大地改变了空间环境,影响了正常的航天发射、空间科学活动及其安全。该文针对空间目标的特点与安全性,提出了利用地球系统空间格网(ESSG)对空间轨道目标进行格网化管理的思路,介绍了格网管理的原理,设计了轨道目标碰撞检测方法。重点探讨了空间轨道目标对格网的映射、静态和动态空间目标的数据导入、空间目标碰撞风险检测等基本问题;设计了一个原理性实验,验证了该文方法的可行性。     

A review of assessment methods for cellular automata models of land-use change and urban growth

ABSTRACT

Cellular automata (CA) models are in growing use for land-use change simulation and future scenario prediction. It is necessary to conduct model assessment that reports the quality of simulation results and how well the models reproduce reliable spatial patterns. Here, we review 347 CA articles published during 1999–2018 identified by a Scholar Google search using ‘cellular automata’, ‘land’ and ‘urban’ as keywords. Our review demonstrates that, during the past two decades, 89% of the publications include model assessment related to dataset, procedure and result using more than ten different methods. Among all methods, cell-by-cell comparison and landscape analysis were most frequently applied in the CA model assessment; specifically, overall accuracy and standard Kappa coefficient respectively rank first and second among all metrics. The end-state assessment is often criticized by modelers because it cannot adequately reflect the modeling ability of CA models. We provide five suggestions to the method selection, aiming to offer a background framework for future method choices as well as urging to focus on the assessment of input data and error propagation, procedure, quantitative and spatial change, and the impact of driving factors.     

The Minkowski approach for choosing the distance metric in geographically weighted regression

In this study, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is adapted to benefit from a broad range of distance metrics, where it is demonstrated that a well-chosen distance metric can improve model performance. How to choose or define such a distance metric is key, and in this respect, a ‘Minkowski approach’ is proposed that enables the selection of an optimum distance metric for a given GWR model. This approach is evaluated within a simulation experiment consisting of three scenarios. The results are twofold: (1) a well-chosen distance metric can significantly improve the predictive accuracy of a GWR model; and (2) the approach allows a good approximation of the underlying ‘optimal distance metric’, which is considered useful when the ‘true’ distance metric is unknown.     

The Victorian Bushfires of 2002–03 and the Politics of Blame: a Discourse Analysis

This paper identifies contrasting environmental discourses on bushfire from the public debate that followed the Victorian fires of 2002–03. Submissions to the inquiry into the 2002–03 Victorian bushfires provide a particularly rich source of documentation. It is argued that environmental events such as bushfire only become political issues, or problems, when they are constituted as such through environmental discourse. Through the analysis, three contrasting discourses on bushfire are identified—here labelled the ‘conservationist’, ‘ruralist’ and ‘wise use’ discourses. In examining how different ‘constructions’ of bushfire have led to conflict, each discourse is shown to consist of a range of actors who draw on shared storylines. Having established a better understanding of the different attitudes, beliefs, interests and values that underpin debates about bushfire, the paper concludes with a brief discussion of the prospects for compromise among the discourses and the potential for improved land and fire management outcomes.     

“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线东盟国家与中国地缘关系判识研究

基于GDELT事件数据,采用语气指数、事件频率、事件记忆性、语气均衡度、核密度估计等方法,定量分析 2013―2019 年东盟关于中国事件的态度,探讨冲突事件空间演化特征,追踪事件并构建事件关系网络。结论：东盟关于中国的报道以合作事件为主;东盟冲突事件语气均衡度相对离散,半月周期内合作、冲突事件对同类事件发生有正向影响,季度内冲突事件会得到改善;东盟风险格局由大事件主导、局部事件补充形成,演化趋向简洁化;合作事件以领导人会谈为主,司法交流、基建合作、国际援助等多类型合作并存,冲突事件以南海争端为主,边境安全、境外犯罪、恐怖袭击等亦有重要影响;菲律宾、缅甸是关键国家节点,东盟对中国主要作用途径有：菲、老、印、柬领导人会谈,菲、越、印领土主权问题,缅甸边境风险等。中国应重视长期布局与东盟的合作关系,加强政府间合作框架设计与战略对接,强化次区域合作,推动南海合作新机制发展,针对性防范各国突出风险。     

山水实景演出的空间生产研究:以《桃花源记》实景演出为例

实景演出是国内旅游开发中文化旅游融合的典范.基于旅游表演理论和空间生产理论,通过参与观察和深度访谈等研究方法,以《桃花源记》为案例,探讨实景演出的空间生产机制,得出结论如下:①以桃花源景区和演出公司为主导,改造生产出物质空间,构成白天的景区游览空间;②通过灯光、音效、烟雾的效果将夜间的景区空间分割为前台和后台,在前台游...     

Reservoir Modeling by Data Integration via Intermediate Spaces and Artificial Intelligence Tools in MPS Simulation Frameworks

Conditioning stochastic simulations are very important in many geostatistical applications that call for the introduction of nonlinear and multiple-point data in reservoir modeling. Here, a new methodology is proposed for the incorporation of different data types into multiple-point statistics (MPS) simulation frameworks. Unlike the previous techniques that call for an approximate forward model (filter) for integration of secondary data into geologically constructed models, the proposed approach develops an intermediate space where all the primary and secondary data are easily mapped onto. Definition of the intermediate space, as may be achieved via application of artificial intelligence tools like neural networks and fuzzy inference systems, eliminates the need for using filters as in previous techniques. The applicability of the proposed approach in conditioning MPS simulations to static and geologic data is verified by modeling a real example of discrete fracture networks using conventional well-log data. The training patterns are well reproduced in the realizations, while the model is also consistent with the map of secondary data.     

体绘制技术在地学3D GIS 可视化中的应用研究

体绘制技术是目前科学计算可视化研究的一个重要组成部分，对地质体内部属性分布的可视化有重要意义。该文针对地学研究中几何建模和属性建模同样重要的特点，基于一种矢栅一体化的混合数据模型，对地质体表面采用三角面片描述几何形状，对地质体内部采用基于八叉树的自适应网格剖分技术描述内部属性特征。对网格剖分后的体数据，采用体元投射的体绘制技术进行地质体内部属性可视化，显示出很好的效果，具有实际应用意义。     

网络关系视角下中国公民出境旅游安全感知事件时空分布特征——以"一带一路"沿线国家为例

以中国大陆居民赴“一带一路”沿线国家旅游安全感知事件为例,搜集2013—2018年我国大陆居民赴“一带一路”沿线国家旅游游记,从网络关系视角出发,分析并刻画其旅游安全感知事件的时空网络结构特征。研究发现：（1）中国公民赴“一带一路”沿线国家旅游安全感知事件分布存在集聚特征,在年尺度上表现出固化性;（2）从区域和国家层面分析得出旅游安全感知事件呈现出稳中渐变特征,如区域层面来说,西亚是旅游安全感知事件重灾区,而中亚是旅游安全感知事件的相对沉寂区;（3）各类旅游安全感知事件的空间分布同质性与异质性并存。     

Macrogeomorphic evolution of the post-Triassic Appalachian mountains determined by deconvolution of the offshore basin sedimentary record

A perplexing macrogeomorphic problem is the persistence of topography in mountain ranges that were initially formed by orogenic events hundreds of millions of years old. In this paper, we deconvolve the post-Triassic macrogeomorphic history of a portion of one of these ranges, the central and northern Appalachians, using a well-documented offshore isopach sedimentary record of the US Atlantic margin. Topography is an important signature of tectonic, eustatic and/or geomorphic processes that produces changes in the erodible thickness of the crust (ETC). We define ETC as the total thickness of crust that would have to be consumed by erosion to reduce the mean elevation of a landscape to sea level. We use the term ‘source flux’, designated by ν˙, to describe the rate of change in ETC attributed to deep-seated geological processes such as crustal thickening, crustal extension, magmatic intrusions or dynamic flow in the mantle. In a mountain belt, the rate of change of mean elevation with respect to a base level, designated by ? ′, can be represented as ? ′ = c(ν˙ ? k _d z ′ ?; ? _c ) ?& hairsp;l˙ , where k _d is a proportionality constant relating the mean mechanical erosion rate to mean elevation, ? _c is the mean chemcial erosion rate, c  is a compensation ratio (held constant for Airy isostasy at 0.21) and l˙  is the rate of eustatic sea-level change. This equation describes the sum of constructive source terms, two destructive erosion terms and a eustatic sea-level term. We use this simple linear equation to develop a landscape evolution model based on the concept of a unit response function. The unit response function is analogous to a unit hydrograph which describes the relationship between input (rainfall) and output (discharge) in a hydrological system. In our case, we solve for the general relationship between the source flux into the mountain belt and the erosional flux out of the belt. Offshore sediment volumes are used to determine the erosional flux. Drainage basin area is treated as either a constant (pinned drainage divide) or as increasing through time (migrating drainage divide). We use a third-order polynomial fit to a global sea-level curve to account for long-term eustatically driven changes in ETC and in drainage basin area. Chemical erosion is treated as a constant fixed at 5 m Myr^?1. We consider two end-member models. The first is a ‘tectonic’ model in which the source flux is allowed to vary while k _d is assumed to be constant over geological time and equal to its mean Pleistocene value of about 0.07 Myr^?1. The second is an ‘erodibility’ model in which k _d is allowed to vary, reflecting changes in climatic, climatic variables and rock-type erodibility, while the source flux is held constant at zero. The ‘tectonic’ model reveals four important increases in the source flux, ranging from 200 to 2000 m Myr^?1 that occur over short (<10 Myr) time spans, followed by a protracted period (>25 Myr) where ν˙ drops below zero to values of ?1000 to ?6000 m Myr^?1. The ‘erodibility’ model produces a topography that decays in a step-like fashion from an initial mean elevation that ranges between ～1800 and 2300 m. These models cannot unequivocally distinguish the relative importance of tectonic vs. climatic processes in the macrogeomorphic evolution of the post-rift Appalachians, but they do provide some first-order quantitative prediction about these two end-member options. In light of existing stratigraphic, geological and thermochronological data, we favour the tectonic model because most of the events correlate well in time and form with known syn- and post-rift magmatic events. Nevertheless, the most recent episode of increased sediment flux to the offshore basins during the Miocene remains difficult to explain by either model. Limited evidence suggests that this event may reflect asthenospheric flow-driven uplift and the development of dynamically supported topography at a time when mechanical erosion rates were increasing in response to a cooling terrestrial climate.     

空间认同:城市空间研究转向中的知识前沿、趋势与启发

中国城市化进程的快速发展,促使人们不断解构、调整和重构对城市空间的认同,这是城市化发展中不容忽视的新问题。以Web of Science（WoS）为数据源,对国外城市空间认同研究进行了分析和知识再现。研究发现：① 城市空间认同是人们对城市发展中社会经济认同、文化认同、集体认同、身份认同与情感认同的集合。作为重要的国民意识,城市空间认同主题是国外学者关注的重要领域,对该领域研究的本质上是对城市空间实践中人文主义空间诉求的知识表征;② 在2008~2017年的国外城市空间认同研究中,美国、英国、澳大利亚等国家具有明显优势,国际合作研究网络主要在美洲-欧洲、欧洲-澳洲,以及澳洲-欧美之间;国外城市空间认同研究高被引文献注重对“空间多中心性”“地方与连续性”“城市社区”“城市公民身份”“空间绅士化”“地方主义”等方面的讨论。③ 未来研究更加倾向在“认同”“空间”“城市”“地理”“政治”“地方”,以及“社区”等新主题方面。相比较而言,国内对城市空间认同的研究较为欠缺,随着中国城市空间实践不断推向纵深阶段,需要强化城市空间认同研究的“理论自觉”。     

GIS作为新一代地理学语言的特征

地理学语言是人类理解、研究、表达与传播地理信息的重要工具, 它随着人类科学技术的进步与认识水平的提高而不断演进。本文根据地理学语言在结构、功能及其特征方面所发生的变化, 结合地理信息本体论、认知论和语言学理论, 总结了GIS 语言的定义与基本属性, 阐述了GIS作为新一代地理学语言的本质特征、结构、功能以及内容体系, 明确了其在地理学研究中的地位与作用。GIS语言实现了地理对象的语义定义、特征抽象、行为表达和时空运算处理过程的高度统一, 是地理学语言的高级形态;通过分析GIS 语言所具有的抽象性、系统性、严密性、确切性、层次性等基本特征。认为GIS语言的概念与体系结构的形成, 将推动地理学及地理信息科学的发展。文中从数字技术的影响、学科范式的转变、发展导向和地理表达能力四个方面对GIS语言的研究作了展望。     

Contesting ‘Local’ Commemoration of the Second World War: the case of the Changi Chapel and Museum in Singapore

This paper concerns the performance of national war memory at the Changi Chapel and Museum, a site honouring the many prisoners interned in Japanese-Occupied Singapore—especially at Changi—during the Second World War. In the light of the global nature of ‘the Changi story’, and the predominantly transnational nature of its present in situ memorialisation, we first examine how the Singapore state has sought to ‘localise’ the site to make it equally appealing to Singaporeans, as a place where a sense of their ‘shared history’ may be invoked. We then explore the Singaporeans' views about the site and its reconfiguration as a national icon, arguing how the state's task of ‘localising’ the site has been a vexed process due to myriad factors such as ethnic and religious plurality, and the already foreign-centric bias of prevailing knowledge about Changi. Following that, we show how this performance of national memory is also inflected by Australia's national remembrance of the same event. More broadly, we highlight the contested process of ‘localising’ such war memoryscapes as national iconography, suggesting how it may be more fruitful to conceive them as ‘international memoryscapes’, or places to which all individuals can relate regardless of race or national affiliations.     

The CartACom model: transforming cartographic features into communicating agents for cartographic generalisation

Our research is concerned with automated generalisation of topographic vector databases in order to produce maps. This article presents a new, agent-based generalisation model called CartACom (Cartographic generalisation with Communicating Agents), dedicated to the treatment of areas of low density but where rubber sheeting techniques are not sufficient because some eliminations or aggregations are needed. In CartACom, the objects of the initial database are modelled as agents, that is, autonomous entities, that choose and apply generalisation algorithms to themselves in order to increase the satisfaction of their constraints as much as possible. The CartACom model focuses on modelling and treating the relational constraints, defined as constraints that concern a relation between two objects. In order to detect and assess their relational constraints, the CartACom agents are able to perceive their spatial surroundings. Moreover, to make the good generalisation decisions to satisfy their relational constraints, they are able to communicate with their neighbours using predefined dialogue protocols. Finally, a hook to another agent-based generalisation model – AGENT – is provided, so that the CartACom agents can handle not only their relational constraints but also their internal constraints. The CartACom model has been applied to the generalisation of low-density, heterogeneous areas like rural areas, where the space is not hierarchically organised. Examples of results obtained on real data show that it is well adapted for this application.     

Postrevolutionary land encroachments in Cairo: Rhizomatic urban space making and the line of flight from illegality

After the January 2011 revolution, new and unpermitted constructions on previously empty land went up across Cairo at striking speed. This paper explores a case of such land encroachments carried out by waste collectors in the neighbourhood of Manshiet Nasser in Cairo, Egypt. It begins with theoretical debates about the production of urban space, arguing that the de Certeauian paradigm, in which urban marginals poach or hijack others' spaces evanescently, fails to account for the way such encroachments produce permanent new spaces rhizomatically alongside the pre‐existing order. The paper then turns to a close examination of the events in Manshiet Nasser. Although in a broad view the actors are marginals living in the ‘informal’ city, the conditions enabling the encroachments were such that only the wealthiest and most powerful members of the ‘community’ benefitted. In a context of generalized ‘illegality’, the squatters rely on practical norms and de facto recognitions to obtain some degree of tenure security. Since these efforts rely on and play off legal norms even as the squatters violate them, the paper argues that property rights in this context should be understood not in classificatory terms based on the legal/illegal binary, but rather through a trajectory of ‘becoming‐legal’: a ‘line of flight’ that approaches legality asymptotically.     

自然过程与人文过程模拟之差异比较分析

模拟是对历史事件的重现,在模拟的基础上可以加以预测用来推断事件未来的发展。以台风移动与降水和三次产业结构演进两个模拟案例为代表,对地理学两大重要分支学科自然地理学和人文地理学分别对应的自然过程模拟和人文过程模拟的差异特点进行了初步比较。主要集中在系统分析框架下的主要组成要素、构建系统框架的知识背景基础、模拟的数据来源和定量化方法以及研究核心对象与应用范式4 个方面对自然过程模拟和人文过程模拟之间的差异进行了总结,并对两者的发展趋势作了简述。最后指出无论自然过程模拟还是人文过程模拟都是区域可持续发展不可或缺的两种模拟技术,随着人地系统理论的深入发展,这两种模拟技术未来必然会逐渐相互渗透融合,界限不再简单分明。     

A Bayesian approach to inverse modelling of stratigraphy, part 1: method

The inference of ancient environmental conditions from their preserved response in the sedimentary record still remains an outstanding issue in stratigraphy. Since the 1970s, conceptual stratigraphic models (e.g. sequence stratigraphy) based on the underlying assumption that accommodation space is the critical control on stratigraphic architecture have been widely used. Although these methods considered more recently other possible parameters such as sediment supply and transport efficiency, they still lack in taking into account the full range of possible parameters, processes, and their complex interactions that control stratigraphic architecture. In this contribution, we present a new quantitative method for the inference of key environmental parameters (specifically sediment supply and relative sea level) that control stratigraphy. The approach combines a fully non‐linear inversion scheme with a ‘process–response’ forward model of stratigraphy. We formulate the inverse problem using a Bayesian framework in order to sample the full range of possible solutions and explicitly build in prior geological knowledge. Our methodology combines Reversible Jump Markov chain Monte Carlo and Simulated Tempering algorithms which are able to deal with variable‐dimensional inverse problems and multi‐modal posterior probability distributions, respectively. The inverse scheme has been linked to a forward stratigraphic model, BARSIM (developed by Joep Storms, University of Delft), which simulates shallow‐marine wave/storm‐dominated systems over geological timescales. This link requires the construction of a likelihood function to quantify the agreement between simulated and observed data of different types (e.g. sediment age and thickness, grain size distributions). The technique has been tested and validated with synthetic data, in which all the parameters are specified to produce a ‘perfect’ simulation, although we add noise to these synthetic data for subsequent testing of the inverse modelling approach. These tests addressed convergence and computational‐overhead issues, and highlight the robustness of the inverse scheme, which is able to assess the full range of uncertainties on the inferred environmental parameters and facies distributions.