美国海滩养护与海滩经济对中国 滨海旅游产业发展的启示

根据美国最新的海滩经济和旅游研究的数据资料,分析了其海滩养护的概况、管理、对滨海旅游经济增长的贡献和当前面临的困境,对照分析了中国滨海旅游产业发展所面临的海岸侵蚀加剧、海滩环境污染、海滩养护投入力度不够、政府职能分散、旅游开发破坏公众利益等一系列问题,借鉴美国海滩旅游开发经验并结合中国实际情况,分别从海滩养护、海滩开发研究与评估、政府管理、动态监测几个层面提出中国未来海滩旅游开发的建议。     

海滩养护影响下的海岸风沙堆积——以福建平潭岛龙凤头海滩养护工程为例

海滩养护工程实施后,在保护海岸抵御侵蚀的同时往往还产生其他的环境问题。尤其在强风区海岸,海滩养护造成了滩面环境的改变,使滩面风沙搬运和沉积特征都发生了显著变化。对福建平潭岛龙凤头海滩养护工程实施前后的风沙沉积对比研究表明,养护后海滩的干滩宽度、滩面沉积物粒径、表层湿度、海滩高程等环境要素变化对滩面风沙搬运与沉积过程都产生了重要的影响。主要结论为:(1)养护海滩干滩滩肩高程的提高增加了滩面风速,增大了滩面风沙输沙率;(2)养护海滩干滩宽度的增加既扩大了风区长度也为风沙搬运提供了充足的物源,且不受潮汐过程影响,提供了持续的风沙物源供给,增加了风沙作用时间;(3)养护海滩剖面形态的变化使得海滩滩面沉积物含水率减小,降低风沙起动风速,增强了滩面风沙搬运。     

海平面上升与海滩侵蚀

世纪性的海平面持续上升，加大了海岸水下斜坡深度，逐渐减小波浪对沉溺古海岸的扰动作用而形成海底的横向供沙减少，却加强激浪对上部海滩的冲刷。逐渐上升的海平面，降低了河流坡降而减少了入海沙量。因此世界海滩普遍出现沙量补给匮乏。海平面上升伴随着厄尔尼诺现象与风暴潮频率的增加，水动力加大。这两者的综合效应，使海滩遭受冲刷，沙坝向陆移动。如按ＩＰＣＣ估计，至２１００年海面上升５０ｃｍ时，中国主要旅游海滨的沙滩将损失现有面积的１３％─６６％。主要对策是海岸防护与海滩人工喂养。     

Municipal initiatives for managing dunes in coastal residential areas: a case study of Avalon, New Jersey, USA

The characteristics of foredunes created in a municipal management program on a developed barrier island are evaluated to identify how landforms used as protection structures can be natural in appearance and function yet compatible with human values. Shoreline management zones include a naturally evolving, undeveloped segment; a noneroding, developed segment; eroding and noneroding segments of an “improved beach” where dunes have been built by artificial nourishment; and a privately built, artificially nourished dune on the shoreline of an inlet.A disastrous storm in 1962 resulted in an aggressive program for building dunes using sand fences, vegetation plantings, purchase of undeveloped lots, and sediment backpassing to maintain beach widths and dune elevations. The present nourished and shaped foredune in the improved beach is higher, wider, and closer to the berm crest than the natural dune. Restricted inputs of aeolian sand keep the surface flat and poorly vegetated. A stable section of this engineered shore has a wider beach, and sand fences have created a higher foredune with greater topographic diversity. The cross shore zonation of vegetation here is more typical of natural dunes, but the environmental gradient is much narrower. The privately built dune is low, narrow, and located where it could not be created naturally. Foreshore and aeolian sediments in the undeveloped segment and the improved beach are similar in mean grain size (0.16–0.21 mm) and sorting (0.31–0.39φ), but sediment on the surface of the nourished dune is coarser (28.1% gravel) with a more poorly sorted sand fraction (1.30φ) representing lag elements on the deflation surface.Willingness to enhance beaches and dunes for protection has reduced insurance premiums and allowed the municipality to qualify for funds from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to replace lost sediment, thus placing an economic value on dunes. Success of the management program is attributed to: (i) timing property-purchase and dune-building programs to periods immediately after storms (causing residents to accept high dunes that restrict access or views); (ii) instituting a vigorous education program (reminding residents of hazards during nonstorm periods); (iii) maintaining control over local sediment supplies (to keep pace with erosion and create new shoreline environments); (iv) investing private and municipal economic resources in landforms (qualifying them for external funds for replacement); and (v) maintaining, augmenting, or simply tolerating biodiversity and natural processes (retaining a natural heritage).     

Quantitative evaluation of the counterbalance between photosynthetic stimulation and depression caused by low partial pressure of O2 and CO2 in alpine atmospheres

To evaluate the effects of low atmospheric pressure on leaf photosynthesis, we compared the photosynthesis of identical leaves of Fagus crenata at lowland (0 m a.s.l.) and at highland (2360 m a.s.l.). At the high altitude, the atmospheric pressure and partial pressure of CO₂ at intercellular air spaces in the leaf (C_i360) decreased to 77% and 78% of those at the low altitude, respectively. On the other hand, the efficiency of photosynthetic CO₂-utilization was apparently higher at the high altitude because of a mitigation of the O₂-inhibition of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco) under low ambient partial pressure of O₂. This stimulation of photosynthesis partly compensated a photosynthetic depression due to the low C_i360, and the net assimilation rate (A_n360) at the high altitude retained 94% of the value at the low altitude. A theoretical model indicated that the stimulation of photosynthesis at high altitudes depend on internal conductance (g_i) and/or on Rubisco content. The model demonstrated that low atmospheric pressure at high altitudes caused severe restrictions of photosynthesis when leaves had a small g_i and/or a large amount of Rubisco, whichever are repeatedly reported in alpine plants.     

1960-2007年中国地表潜在蒸散发敏感性的时空变化(英文)

Potential evapotranspiration (E0), as an estimate of the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, has been widely studied in the fields of irrigation management, crop water demand and predictions in ungauged basins (PUBs). Analysis of the sensitivity of E0 to meteorological factors is a basic research on the impact of climate change on water resources, and also is important to the optimal allocation of agricultural water resources. This paper dealt with sensitivity of E0 over China, which was divided into ten drainage systems, including Songhua River basin, Liaohe River basin, Haihe River basin, Yellow River basin, Yangtze River basin, Pearl River basin, Huaihe River drainage system, Southeast river drainage system, Northwest river drainage system and Southwest river drainage system. In addition, the calculation method of global radiation in Penman-Monteith formula was improved by optimization, and the sensitivities of Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration to the daily maximum temperature (STmax), daily minimum temperature (STmin), wind speed (SU2), global radiation (SRs) and vapor pressure (SVP) were calculated and analyzed based on the long-term meteorological data from 653 meteorological stations in China during the period 1960-2007. Results show that: (1) the correlation coefficient between E0 and pan evaporation increased from 0.61 to 0.75. E0 had the decline trends in eight of ten drainage systems in China, which indicates that "pan evaporation paradox" commonly exists in China from 1960 to 2007. (2) Spatially, Tmax was the most sensitive factor in Haihe River basin, Yellow River basin, Huaihe River drainage system, Yangtze River basin, Pearl River basin and Southeast river drainage system, and VP was the most sensitive factor in Songhua River Basin, Liaohe River basin, Northwest river drainage system while Rs was the most sensitive factor in Southwest river drainage system. For the nation-wide average, the most sensitive factor was VP, followed by Tmax, Rs, U2 and Tmin. In addition, the changes in sensitivity coefficients had a certain correlation with elevation. (3) Temporally, the maximum values of STmax and SRs occurred in July, while the maximum values of STmin, SVP and SU2 occurred in January. Moreover, trend analysis indicates that STmax had decline trends, while STmin, SU2, SRs and SVP had increasing trends.     

A More Rational Climatic Moisture Index*

A climatic moisture index (I_m) used extensively by C. W. Thornthwaite and others is examined, and a modified version of the index is proposed. Arbitrary limits [?100 ≤ I_m≤ 100 (∞? 1)], combined with its dimensionless property, make the original index difficult to interpret. Our refined version also is dimensionless, but the limits have been recast so that ?1 ≤ I_m≤ 1. Wet climates have positive values of I_m while dry climates are negative, and the index is symmetric about zero. The spatial distribution of our modified annual-average moisture index over the world's continents is mapped and described.     

A new geographical language：A perspective of GIS

Language plays a vital role in the communication, sharing and transmission of information among human beings. Geographical languages are essential for understanding, investigating, representing and propagating geo-spatial information. Geographical languages have developed and evolved gradually with improvements in science, technology and cognitive levels. Concerning the theoretical progress from geographical information ontology, epistemology and linguistic theory, this paper firstly puts forward the concept of a GIS language and discusses its basic characteristics according to changes in the structures, functions and characteristics of geographical languages. This GIS language can be regarded as a system of synthetic digital symbols. It is a comprehensive representation of geographical objects, phenomena and their spatial distributions and dynamic processes. This representation helps us generate a universal perception of geographical space using geographical scenarios or symbols with geometry, statuses, processes, spatio-temporal relationships, semantics and attributes. Furthermore, this paper states that the GIS language represents a new generation of geographical language due to its intrinsic characteristics, structures, functions and systematic content. Based on the aforementioned theoretical foundation, this paper illustrates the pivotal status and contributions of the GIS language from the perspective of geographical researchers. The language of GIS is a new geographical language designed for the current era, with features including spatio-temporal multi-dimension representation, interactive visualization, virtual geographical scenarios, multi-sensor perception and expedient broadcasting via the web. The GIS language is the highest-level geographical language developed to date, integrating semantic definitions, feature extraction, geographical dynamic representation and spatio-temporal factors and unifying the computation of geographical phenomena and objects. The GIS language possesses five important characteristics: abstraction, systematicness, strictness, precision and hierarchy. In summary, the GIS language provides a new means for people to recognize, understand and simulate entire geo-environments. Therefore, exploration of the GIS language’s functions in contemporary geographical developments is becoming increasingly important. Similarly, construction of the conceptual model and scientific systems of the GIS language will promote the development of the disciplines of geography and geographical information sciences. Therefore, this paper investigates the prospects of the GIS language from the perspectives of digital technology, geographical norms, geographical modeling and the disciplinary development of geography.     

An Advanced Well Log and an Effective Methodology to Evaluate Water Saturation of the Organic-Rich Cambay Shale

Water saturation (S_w) is a vital parameter in the evaluation of hydrocarbon reservoir. Realistic estimation of S_w in shale reservoir is a challenging problem because of the presence of significant clay minerals and organic matter. The present study aims to estimate S_w of organic-rich Cambay Shale, Jambusar–Broach block, Cambay Basin, India, using an effective methodology and improved equation (TOC–clay equation), considering the appropriate corrections to counter the effect of clay minerals and organic matter in modifying resistivity. Advanced log like Litho-scanner has been utilized for the continuous estimation of clay content and total organic carbon (TOC), required for the estimation of S_w. Elemental capture spectroscopy and support vector regression were also applied for evaluation of clay content and TOC in one well where Litho-scanner log is not available. To investigate the effectiveness and applicability of the TOC–clay equation, results of S_w estimated from this equation and various other models have been compared with core S_w for a well. The analysis indicates that S_w derived from TOC–clay equation is having the closest agreement to core S_w data with an average absolute percentage error of 7.9% and coefficient of correlation 0.95. For other models, average absolute errors are significantly higher (16.8–32.7%). The application of TOC–clay equation will be useful for evaluation of the Cambay Shale reservoir. In addition, the resistivity-based TOC–clay equation used in this study is simple with a practical approach; it can be applied easily and efficiently for any organic-rich shale reservoir elsewhere.

     

开封市黄河滩区土地资源规避洪水风险的安全利用

基于ArcGIS与ERDAS遥感影像制图软件,利用2007年SPOT2.5m分辨率遥感影像,结合实地调查,详细编绘了开封市段黄河河道边界、开封段黄河滩区土地资源的利用现状。采用1992~2007年最大洪峰时期的TM影像与沿河水文站点的观测资料,提取1992~2007年7个典型日期的河道行洪边缘线,与本底数据叠加,编制了开封段不同常遇洪水流量下滩区淹没范围。按照黄河下游二维水沙数学模型,采用2004年汛后河道大断面资料,计算生成不同流量级大洪水在滩区的可能淹没范围图(淹没区边界)。在此基础上,结合土地资源管理与河道行洪安全性的要求,总结当前黄河下游滩区利用开发的现状与存在问题,制订土地安全利用规避洪险的原则,规划土地安全利用分区,分为临河风险缓冲带、近河宜耕地带、相对稳定利用带(中风险带)和稳定利用带。提出了黄河滩区土地资源合理安全利用的对策。     

Refining the palaeoecology of lacustrine testate amoebae: insights from a plant macrofossil record from a eutrophic Scottish lake

Lakes are common natural systems for which sedimentation is considered to be relatively simple, generally dominated by fluvial processes along the margin and prevailing low-energy settling in the central, deeper parts. However, for many lakes, higher-energy wind-driven processes dominate. As such, a new category of lakes is proposed, herein referred to as wind-driven waterbodies (WWB). WWB display a sedimentation largely dominated by wave related processes and wind-induced lake-scale water circulation evidenced by the construction of beach ridges, spits or cuspate spits along their shorelines, and by sediment drifts, sedimentary shelf progradation and erosional surfaces in their deeper, offshore domains. WWB are observed worldwide, they share a common physiography that favours wind-forced hydrodynamics and related sedimentation patterns. This physiography is expressed by the I_WWB index, a ratio of the maximum representative fetch relative to mean basin depth. It is proposed that an index value greater than three favours the evolution of a lake as a WWB. The WWB concept represents a new end-member in an alternative, sedimentologically-based lake classification that is proposed in this paper.     

Glacier Distribution in the Alps: Statistical Modelling of Altitude and Aspect

Mass balance of glaciers in mountain areas varies not only with altitude and regional position but also with aspect, gradient, glacier size, glacier type and detailed topographic position. These factors are combined here in models of how glacier altitude varies, tested with data for the Alps edited from the World Glacier Inventory. An overall northward tendency in glacier numbers (toward 005 ± 4°) and lower altitudes (013 ± 5°) is maintained across a range of glacier sizes, types, altitudes and the major divisions of the Alps. Variation with aspect of glacier altitude (and, by implication, of glacier balance) in the Alps is essentially unimodal, and north‐facing glaciers average 220 m lower in middle altitude than south‐facing: 148 m in the Western Alps, 232 m in the West‐central, 252 m in the East‐central, and 268 m in the Eastern Alps. For smaller subdivisions, confidence intervals on estimates are broader and many differences lack statistical significance. Contrasts are greater in the higher massifs, with greater relief, and lower in cloudy, windward areas. There are small windrelated tendencies east of north along the northern and western fringes, but trends across space are weak: position is thus treated by subdivision into districts and groups. Mid‐altitude averages 2891 m overall and varies from 2552 to 3127 m for 27 glacier districts, and from 2124 to 3209 m for 103 glacier groups. Glacier mid‐altitude varies also with glacier form, nourishment, height range and area, which account for over two‐thirds of variance in combined models.     

科尔沁沙地玉米(Zea mays)田垄上和垄间土壤呼吸比较

采用动态密闭气室法测定分析了科尔沁沙地典型玉米(Zea mays)农田垄上和垄间土壤呼吸速率的差异及自养和异养呼吸特征,并估算了生态系统碳平衡。结果表明:(1)垄上和垄间土壤呼吸速率存在极显著差异(p0.001),且存在线性关系(p0.05);季节水平上垄上土壤呼吸可解释垄间土壤呼吸98.4%的变异。(2)季节水平上土壤总呼吸(RS)、异养呼吸(RH)和自养呼吸(RA)的温度敏感性指数Q10大小顺序为:RA(4.35)RS(3.10)RH(2.08)。(3)RS和RH之间存在显著差异,RA与RS和RH之间不存在显著差异;RA占RS比例的季节变化范围为28.1%~71.1%,生长季RH和RA占RS的比例均值分别为44.4%和55.6%。(4)科尔沁沙地典型农田生态系统在生长季为碳汇,可净固存大气CO2-C的量为659.1g·m-2。     

GIS作为新一代地理学语言的特征(英文)

Language plays a vital role in the communication, sharing and transmission of information among human beings. Geographical languages are essential for understanding, investigating, representing and propagating geo-spatial information. Geographical languages have developed and evolved gradually with improvements in science, technology and cognitive levels. Concerning the theoretical progress from geographical information ontology, epistemology and linguistic theory, this paper firstly puts forward the concept of a GIS language and discusses its basic characteristics according to changes in the structures, functions and characteristics of geographical languages. This GIS language can be regarded as a system of synthetic digital symbols. It is a comprehensive representation of geographical objects, phenomena and their spatial distributions and dynamic processes. This representation helps us generate a universal perception of geographical space using geographical scenarios or symbols with geometry, statuses, processes, spatio-temporal relationships, semantics and attributes. Furthermore, this paper states that the GIS language represents a new generation of geographical language due to its intrinsic characteristics, structures, functions and systematic content. Based on the aforementioned theoretical foundation, this paper illustrates the pivotal status and contributions of the GIS language from the perspective of geographical researchers. The language of GIS is a new geographical language designed for the current era, with features including spatio-temporal multi-dimension representation, interactive visualization, virtual geographical scenarios, multi-sensor perception and expedient broadcasting via the web. The GIS language is the highest-level geographical language developed to date, integrating semantic definitions, feature extraction, geographical dynamic representation and spatio-temporal factors and unifying the computation of geographical phenomena and objects. The GIS language possesses five important characteristics: abstraction, systematicness, strictness, precision and hierarchy. In summary, the GIS language provides a new means forpeople to recognize, understand and simulate entire geo-environments. Therefore, exploration of the GIS language’s functions in contemporary geographical developments is becoming increasingly important. Similarly, construction of the conceptual model and scientific systems of the GIS language will promote the development of the disciplines of geography and geographical information sciences. Therefore, this paper investigates the prospects of the GIS language from the perspectives of digital technology, geographical norms, geographical modeling and the disciplinary development of geography.     

Analysis of Ultimate Fossil Fuel Reserves and Associated CO2 Emissions in IPCC Scenarios

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) commissioned a special report on emissions scenarios in 2000 so as to forecast global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for a variety of assumptions. These scenarios have been subjected to a multitude of criticisms, alleging overoptimistic predictions for fossil fuel production rates. Intrigued by this controversy, this paper employs the Hubbert linearization technique to solve for ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of fossil fuels for six significant IPCC scenarios. The predictions are substantially higher than geological URR estimates found in recent literature, ranging from 19 to over 200% higher for oil, 16 to over 500% for coal, and 171 to over 500% for natural gas, depending on the scenario. Subsequently, the atmospheric CO₂ concentrations resulting from full consumption of URR related to IPCC data, as well as literature-based URR, are determined with a simple model. The former concentrations range from 640 to over 1,300 ppm. In comparison, the peak-based URR in the literature yield 463–577 ppm. All of these figures are higher than the 450 ppm ‘threshold’ which some see as critical. Therefore, despite peaking fossil fuels, concern over climate change is still warranted. At the same time, the fossil fuel production inputs to the IPCC’s CO₂ emissions models appear predominantly overoptimistic, which calls into question the accuracy of the climate change assessment outputs. Moving forward, the IPCC is encouraged to re-assess its fossil fuel forecasts, incorporating more reasonable scenarios for peak production of fossil fuels.     

渭河下游河流输沙需水量计算

基于对河流输沙运动特性的分析,认为最小河流输沙需水量是当河流输沙基本上处于冲淤平衡状态时输送单位重量的泥沙所需要的水的体积,通过河段进口即上游断面水流挟沙力 (S_u^*) 与含沙量 (S_u) 比较,分S_u ≤ S_u^*和S_u > S_u^*两种情况,分别建立了最小河段输沙需水量的计算方法。并应用该方法对渭河下游输沙需水量做了计算。计算的空间尺度为渭河下游的咸阳、临潼、华县三个断面,时间尺度为四个代表年的年内月均需水量,分p = 25% (1963年)、p = 50% (1990年)、p = 75% (1982年)、p = 90% (1979年)。计算结果分析表明：渭河各断面汛期月均输沙需水量大于非汛期月均输沙需水量。相较而言,在不同代表年的汛期和非汛期,从咸阳断面至华县断面输沙需水量在增加。在丰水年 (p = 25%),渭河下游咸阳、临潼、华县等3个断面年输沙需水量分别为63.67亿m³、97.95亿m³和103.25亿m³;在平水年 (p = 50%),渭河下游咸阳、临潼、华县等3个断面年输沙需水量分别为49.71亿m³、83.27亿m³和85.08亿m³;在枯水年 (p = 75%),渭河下游咸阳、临潼、华县等3个断面年输沙需水量分别为30.17亿m³、55.14亿m³和65.32亿m³;在特枯水年 (p = 90%),渭河下游咸阳、临潼、华县等3个断面年输沙需水量分别为23.96亿m³、37.91亿m³和38.92亿m³。由丰水年到枯水年,渭河下游各断面年输沙需水量变小。     

面向地貌学本源的DEM增值理论框架与构建方法

数字高程模型（DEM）在表达地貌形态、认知地表过程、揭示地学机理等研究中发挥着基础性的作用,是重要的地理空间数据模型,广泛地应用于地学分析与建模中。但是,传统DEM具有属性单一的天然缺陷,难以支撑面向地学过程与机理挖掘的地球系统科学研究。亟待在传统DEM的基础上实现其数据模型的增值,服务于新地貌学研究范式和新对地观测技术背景下的数字地形建模与分析。立足于以上问题,本文构建了DEM增值的理论框架,主要包括DEM增值的概念、内涵、内容、类别、不同增值类别之间的相互关系,以及此理论框架的研究意义和应用范畴。提出了DEM增值的构建方法,包含：① 强调地上地下一体化、时间空间相耦合的DEM空间维度和时间维度增值方法;② 重视地下、地表和地上物质构成,形态属性耦合的物质属性和形态属性增值方法;③ 顾及自然过程、人工作用的地物对象、地貌形态的地物要素和形体要素增值方法。最后,分别以数字阶地模型、数字坡地模型和数字流域模型为例,阐释DEM在面向地貌学本源问题时的不同增值方法及应用场景。期望通过对DEM进行维度、属性和要素3个层面的增值,实现现代对地观测技术背景下数字高程模型表达方法的突破,并支撑知识驱动的数字地貌问题分析。     

坡面径流冲刷及泥沙输移特征的试验研究

通过室内放水冲刷试验,对坡面细沟侵蚀发生的临界条件、细沟发展过程中的侵蚀产沙特征、以及影响细沟侵蚀产沙的因素进行了分析研究,得出了试验土条件下产生细沟的临界流量与坡面坡度的关系式.在分析产沙变化的基础上,探讨了细沟侵蚀量随径流量和坡面倾斜度的变化规律.     

An evaluation of ontology matching techniques on geospatial ontologies

Standardization is one of the pillars of interoperability. In this context, efforts promoted by the Open Geospatial Consortium, such as CityGML (Technical University, Berlin), a standard for exchanging three-dimensional models or urban city objects, are welcomed. However, information from other domains of interest (e.g. energy efficiency or building information modeling) is needed for tasks such as land planning, large-scale flooding analysis, or demand/supply energy simulations. CityGML allows extension in order to integrate information from other domains, but the development process is expensive because there is no way to perform it automatically. The discovery of correspondences between CityGML concepts and other domains concepts poses a significant challenge.

Ontology matching is the research field emerged from the Semantic Web to address automatic ontology integration. Using the ontology underlying CityGML and the ontologies which model other domains of interest, ontology matching would be able to find the correspondences that would permit the integration in a more automatic manner than it is done now.

In this paper, we evaluate if ontology matching techniques allow performing an automatic integration of geospatial information modeled from different viewpoints. In order to achieve this, an evaluation methodology was designed, and it was applied to the discovery of relationships between CityGML and ontologies coming from the building information modeling and Geospatial Semantic Web domains. The methodology and the results of the evaluation are presented. The best results have been achieved using string-based techniques, while matching systems give the worst precision and recall. Only in a few cases the values are over 50%, which shows the limitations when these techniques are applied to ontologies with a partial overlap.     

挠力河流域河流径流量对气候变化的敏感性分析

流域径流量对气候变化的敏感性分析是理解气候变化对流域水资源影响的重要手段。本文利用非更新式人工神经网络(ANN)模型,以年平均降雨、年最低气温和最高气温为输入参数,年平均径流量为输出变量,构建了三江平原挠力河流域的径流量预测ANN模型;并根据IPCC第四次报告的气候变化模式,设定了9种不同的气候变化情景,利用构建的ANN模型分析了流域径流量对气候变化的敏感性。结果表明:构建的人工神经网络模型能够较好的模拟径流量,可用于气候变化的敏感性分析;挠力河流域上游径流量对气候变化的敏感性要大于中游区域的,降水变化对径流量的影响大于气温对其产生的影响。