Geodetic inversion for space–time distribution of fault slip with time-varying smoothing regularization

We have developed a new geodetic inversion method for space–time distribution of fault slip velocity with time-varying smoothing regularization in order to reconstruct accurate time histories of aseismic fault slip transients. We introduce a temporal smoothing regularization on slip and slip velocity through a Bayesian state space approach in which the strength of regularization (temporal smoothness of slip velocity) is controlled by a hyperparameter. The time-varying smoothing regularization is realized by treating the hyperparameter as a time-dependent stochastic variable and adopting a hierarchical Bayesian state space model, in which a prior distribution on the hyperparameter is introduced in addition to a conventional Bayesian state space model. We have tested this inversion method on two synthetic data sets generated by simulated aseismic slip transients. Results show that our method reproduces well both rapid changes of slip velocity and steady-state velocity without significant oversmoothing and undersmoothing, which has been hard to overcome by the conventional Bayesian approach with time-independent smoothing regularization. Application of this method to transient deformation in 2002 caused by a silent earthquake off the Boso peninsula, Japan, also shows similar advantages of this method over the conventional approach.     

A Bayesian palaeoenvironmental transfer function model for acidified lakes

A Bayesian approach to palaeoecological environmental reconstruction deriving from the unimodal responses generally exhibited by organisms to an environmental gradient is described. The approach uses Bayesian model selection to calculate a collection of probability-weighted, species-specific response curves (SRCs) for each taxon within a training set, with an explicit treatment for zero abundances. These SRCs are used to reconstruct the environmental variable from sub-fossilised assemblages. The approach enables a substantial increase in computational efficiency (several orders of magnitude) over existing Bayesian methodologies. The model is developed from the Surface Water Acidification Programme (SWAP) training set and is demonstrated to exhibit comparable predictive power to existing Weighted Averaging and Maximum Likelihood methodologies, though with improvements in bias; the additional explanatory power of the Bayesian approach lies in an explicit calculation of uncertainty for each individual reconstruction. The model is applied to reconstruct the Holocene acidification history of the Round Loch of Glenhead, including a reconstruction of recent recovery derived from sediment trap data. The Bayesian reconstructions display similar trends to conventional (Weighted Averaging Partial Least Squares) reconstructions but provide a better reconstruction of extreme pH and are more sensitive to small changes in diatom assemblages. The validity of the posteriors as an apparently meaningful representation of assemblage-specific uncertainty and the high computational efficiency of the approach open up the possibility of highly constrained multiproxy reconstructions.     

Mapping Air Temperature in the Lancang River Basin Using the Reconstructed MODIS LST Data

Air temperature is an important climatological variable and is usually measured in meteorological stations. Accurate mapping of its spatial and temporal distribution is of great interest for various scientific disciplines, but low station density and complexity of the terrain usually lead to significant errors and unrepresentative spatial patterns over large areas. Fortunately the current studies have shown that the regression models can help overcome the problem with the help of time series remote sensing data. However, noise induced by cloud contamination and other atmospheric disturbances variability impedes the application of LST data. An improved Savizky-Golay (SG) algorithm based on the LST background library is used in this paper to reconstruct MODIS LST product. Data statistical analysis included 12 meteorological stations and 120 reconstructed MODIS LST images of the period from 2001 to 2010. The coeffificient of correlations (R²) for 80% of the stations was higher than 0.5 (below 0.5 for only 2 stations) which illustrated that there is a considerably close agreement between monthly mean TA (air temperature) and the reconstructed LST in the Lancang River basin. Comparing to the regression model for every month with only LST data, the regression model with LST and NDVI had higher R² and RMSE. Finally, the LST-NDVI regression method was applied as an estimate model to produce distributed maps of air temperature with month intervals and 1 km spatial in the Lancang River basin of 2010.     

A chrysophyte stomatocyst-based reconstruction of cold-season air temperature from Alpine Lake Silvaplana (AD 1500–2003); methods and concepts for quantitative inferences

Relatively little is known about past cold-season temperature variability in high-Alpine regions because of a lack of natural cold-season temperature proxies as well as under-representation of high-altitude sites in meteorological, early-instrumental and documentary data sources. Recent studies have shown that chrysophyte stomatocysts, or simply cysts (sub-fossil algal remains of Chrysophyceae and Synurophyceae), are among the very few natural proxies that can be used to reconstruct cold-season temperatures. This study presents a quantitative, high-resolution (5-year), cold-season (Oct–May) temperature reconstruction based on sub-fossil chrysophyte stomatocysts in the annually laminated (varved) sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, SE Switzerland (1,789 m a.s.l.), since AD 1500. We first explore the method used to translate an ecologically meaningful variable based on a biological proxy into a simple climate variable. A transfer function was applied to reconstruct the ‘date of spring mixing’ from cyst assemblages. Next, statistical regression models were tested to convert the reconstructed ‘dates of spring mixing’ into cold-season surface air temperatures with associated errors. The strengths and weaknesses of this approach are thoroughly tested. One much-debated, basic assumption for reconstructions (‘stationarity’), which states that only the environmental variable of interest has influenced cyst assemblages and the influence of confounding variables is negligible over time, is addressed in detail. Our inferences show that past cold-season air-temperature fluctuations were substantial and larger than those of other temperature reconstructions for Europe and the Alpine region. Interestingly, in this study, recent cold-season temperatures only just exceed those of previous, multi-decadal warm phases since AD 1500. These findings highlight the importance of local studies to assess natural climate variability at high altitudes.     

基于MODIS数据网格化重建历史耕地空间分布的方法——以清代云南省为例

建立具有准确空间属性的历史时期土地覆被数据集有助于更好地模拟土地覆被变化的过程及其效应。本文基于我国过去300年耕地面积总体呈持续增加的特点,提出了历史时期耕地分布范围未超出现代耕地范围的合理假设,并以地表高程和坡度为影响土地宜垦程度的主导因子,评估了MODIS土地覆被产品中现代耕地分布区域的宜垦程度,再按宜垦程度从高...     

利用树木车轮资料重建西藏中部过去气候的初步尝试

为较可靠地利用年轮气候学方法重建过去气候，本文依据西藏中部，四个经过合适取样和精确定年的树木年轮年表，首先确立了它们各自生长状况对气候要素的响应函数，进一步明确年轮宽度与气候变化的关系。接着，选择可被重建的气候因子，并建立包括前期生长在内的、经过正交变换的转换函数，达到重建过去气温和降水的目的。此外，还划出不同的校准期和验证期，采用统计方法和其它类型代用资料进行检验。     

基于加权光滑样条的多云雨地区NDVI重构——以广东省为例

为探讨加权光滑样条算法（sspw）在多云雨地区重构高质量NDVI的效果,以广东省为研究区,对其范围内2005—2015年MOD13Q1 NDVI数据进行重构。为证实sspw在重构多云雨地区NDVI的优势,选取多云雨样区的重构影像进行对比,并将未加权滤波［普通光滑样条（ssp）、Savitzky-Golay（SG）滤波］与加权滤波（sspw、加权SG滤波）重构的NDVI时序曲线进行对比。结果发现：1）sspw能有效重构多云雨地区NDVI。2）与未加权滤波相比,在质量权重的辅助下,加权滤波重构的NDVI数据时间序列曲线更接近原始NDVI上包络线,加权滤波重构的NDVI与原始NDVI线性相关性更强,误差更小;而加权滤波中,sspw比加权SG（Savitzky-Golay）滤波更能抑制图像中的噪音。总体来说,sspw重构的数据误差更小,与原始高质量数据相关性更强,重构效果更好,更适合多云雨地区。     

20世纪中国耕地格网化数据分区重建

针对中国国家尺度层面耕地历史数据集的缺乏,提出了分区建模的方案.首先,将中国定性划分为四大区域,即传统农区、东北地区、西北地区、青藏地区;在此基础上,分别量化地形、人口要素与耕地分布之间的关系,构建空间格网化模型.利用该方案,重建了中国1913、1933、1950、1970、1990 和2000 年6 个时间断面空间分辨率为10 km的格网化耕地数据.对比1990 年的重建结果与遥感解译结果,发现无论是县域尺度,还是栅格尺度,数据集的准确性都较高.对重建的耕地数据集进行分析发现,近百年来中国的耕地面积出现先增后减的趋势,拐点大体在20 世纪后期,不仅是耕地总量的先增后减,而且垦殖强度也是先增后减,但区域之间并不一致,其中变化较大的是东北和西北地区.     

A chironomid-based salinity inference model from lakes on the Tibetan Plateau

Previous studies have shown chironomids to be excellent indicators of environmental change and training sets have been developed in order to allow these changes to be reconstructed quantitatively from subfossil sequences. Here we present the results of an investigation into the relationships between surface sediment subfossil chironomid distribution and lake environmental variables from 42 lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) revealed that of the 11 measured environmental variables, salinity (measured as total dissolved solids TDS) was most important, accounting for 10.5% of the variance in the chironomid data. This variable was significant enough to allow the development of quantitative inference models. A range of TDS inference models were developed using Weighted Averaging (WA), Partial Least Squares (PLS), Weighted Averaging–Partial Least Squares (WA–PLS), Maximum Likelihood (ML), Modern Analogues Technique (MAT) and Modern Analogues Techniques weighted by similarity (WMAT). Evaluation of the site data indicated that four lakes were major outliers, and after omitting these from the training set the models produced jack-knifed coefficients of determination (r ²) between 0.60 and 0.80, and root-mean-squared errors of prediction (RMSEP) between 0.29 and 0.44 log₁₀ TDS. The best performing model was the two-component WA–PLS model with r ² _jack = 0.80 and RMSEP_jack = 0.29 log₁₀ TDS. The model results were similar to other chironomid-salinity models developed in different regions, and they also showed similar ecological groupings along the salinity gradient with respect to freshwater/salinity thresholds and community diversity. These results therefore indicate that similar processes may be controlling chironomid distribution across salinity gradients irrespective of biogeographical constraints. The performance of the transfer functions illustrates that chironomid assemblages from the Tibetan Plateau lakes are clearly sensitive indicators of salinity. The models will therefore allow the quantification of long-term records of past water salinity for lacustrine sites across the Tibetan Plateau, which has important implications for future hydrological research in the region.     

过去千年气候变化重建研究新进展

20世纪气候变暖的归因是当前全球共同关注的焦点之一,而解决这一问题的途径之一是对过去千年的气候变化历史进行精确重建。简要回顾过去千年气候重建的研究进展,重点关注古气候空间重建方法方面的最新进展,并将目前古气候空间重建方法划分为3类,即综合-比例法（Composite Plus Scale, CPS）、气候场重建法（Climate Field Reconstruction, CFR）以及状态空间模型（State-space Model）法,同时指出了这些方法的优缺点以及可能的解决途径。     

河流水质风险评价的灰色-随机风险率方法

提出了量化影响河流水质的随机不确定性与灰色不确定性的水质超标灰色－随机风险率概念，建立了水质超标灰色－随机风险率评价模型。在水质单项参数评价模型中，将河流污染物浓度变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布，将污染物浓度超过水质类别标准值的风险率处理成灰色概率，即水质超标灰色－随机风险率。在水质综合评价模型中，河流水环境系统被考虑为担任某一使用可能的可靠性系统，而任意一种水质参数超标意味着河流水体使用功能不能得到应有的保证，也即表明水体综合评价超标，最后借鉴系统可靠性分析的理论和方法计算水质综合超标率。该方法应用于黄河花园口断面重金属污染风险评价。     

基于DPSIR-PLS模型的中国水贫困评价

针对现有水贫困评价中系统间缺乏关联性和指标体系未验证的情况,在借鉴原有研究成果的基础上,将基于因果关系的DPSIR模型和PLS结构方程模型相结合,构建中国水贫困评价指标体系和框架模型,并进行验证,最后测算了2003-2014年我国31个省（市）区的水贫困现状。采用ISODATA聚类方法,划分各省区水贫困驱动系统类型,进一步通过核密度估计和马尔科夫链分析水贫困分布的整体形态和演进趋势。结果显示：我国水贫困状况逐渐向"俱乐部收敛"转化,整体呈现良好的发展态势;水贫困类型出现跨越式发展,但流动性较低;不同省区出现严重水贫困、较重水贫困、中度水贫困和微水贫困集聚的现象。评价结果基本可以反映各省区水贫困的实际情况,具有一定的现实意义。     

A review of historical reconstruction methods of land use/land cover

Understanding long-term human-environment interactions requires historical reconstruction of past land-use and land-cover changes. Most reconstructions have been based primarily on consistently available and relatively standardized information from historical sources. Based on available data sources and a retrospective research, in this paper we review the approaches and methods of the digital reconstruction and analyze their advantages and possible constraints in the following aspects: (1) Historical documents contain qualitative or semi-quantitative information about past land use, which also usually include land-cover data, but preparation of archival documents is very time-consuming. (2) Historical maps and pictures offer visual and spatial quantitative land-cover information. (3) Natural archive has significant advantages as a method for reconstructing past vegetation and has its unique possibilities especially when historical records are missing or lacking, but it has great limits of rebuilding certain land-cover types. (4) Historical reconstruction models have been gradually developed from empirical models to mechanistic ones. The method does not only reconstruct the quantity of land use/cover in historical periods, but it also reproduces the spatial distribution. Yet there are still few historical land-cover datasets with high spatial resolution. (5) Reconstruction method based on multiple-source data and multidisciplinary research could build historical land-cover from multiple perspectives, complement the missing data, verify reconstruction results and thus improve reconstruction accuracy. However, there are challenges that make the method still in the exploratory stage. This method can be a long-term development goal for the historical land-cover reconstruction. Researchers should focus on rebuilding historical land-cover dataset with high spatial resolution by developing new models so that the study results could be effectively applied in simulations of climatic and ecological effects.     

土地利用/覆被历史重建方法(英文)

Understanding long-term human-environment interactions requires historical reconstruction of past land-use and land-cover changes. Most reconstructions have been based primarily on consistently available and relatively standardized information from historical sources. Based on available data sources and a retrospective research, in this paper we review the approaches and methods of the digital reconstruction and analyze their advantages and possible constraints in the following aspects:(1) Historical documents contain qualitative or semi-quantitative information about past land use, which also usually include land-cover data, but preparation of archival documents is very time-consuming.(2) Historical maps and pictures offer visual and spatial quantitative land-cover information.(3) Natural archive has significant advantages as a method for reconstructing past vegetation and has its unique possibilities especially when historical records are missing or lacking, but it has great limits of rebuilding certain land-cover types.(4) Historical reconstruction models have been gradually developed from empirical models to mechanistic ones. The method does not only reconstruct the quantity of land use/cover in historical periods, but it also reproduces the spatial distribution. Yet there are still few historical land-cover datasets with high spatial resolution.(5) Reconstruction method based on multiple-source data and multidisciplinary research could build historical land-cover from multiple perspectives, complement the missing data, verify reconstruction results and thus improve reconstruction accuracy. However, there are challenges that make the method still in the exploratory stage. This method can be a long-term development goal for the historical land-cover reconstruction. Researchers should focus on rebuilding historical land-cover dataset with high spatial resolution by developing new models so that the study results could be effectively applied in simulations of climatic and ecological effects.     

湖泊碳酸盐记录的古水温定量研究进展

湖泊古水温乃至古气温的定量反演,可以促进过去全球变化研究由定性走向定量。目前利用湖泊碳酸盐对湖泊古水温进行重建主要有三种方式,一是运用同位素地质温度计原理,利用水温与湖泊碳酸盐氧同位素值和湖水氧同位素值三者之间的函数关系,对湖泊古水温做定量研究;二是通过测定介壳[Mg2+]/[Ca2+]进而重建古水温;三是通过测定湖泊流域范围内现代水文气象参数及一些相关的同位素资料直接建立起湖泊自生碳酸盐氧同位素值与温度间的统计模型。各种方法有不同的适用条件和适用范围及其一定的局限性,对此做了归纳和评述。     

Precipitation variability in Hulunbuir,northeastern China since 1829 AD reconstructed from tree-rings and its linkage with remote oceans

Precipitation is the main factor limiting the radial growth of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica in the Hulunbuir region, northeastern China. We used tree-ring width data to reconstruct precipitation from prior August to current July during the 1829–2009. The reconstruction was verified by the jackknife method, and accounts for 60.49% of the actual precipitation variance during their common period (1951–2009). Over the past 181 years, the climate in the Hulunbuir region has experienced distinct dry–wet alternations at the decadal scale. The Hulunbuir area experienced seven wet periods and seven dry periods, and there was no significant long-term increase or decrease in precipitation. The reconstructed precipitation sequence for Hulunbuir was largely consistent with the precipitation sequence of Helan Mountain and Baiyinaobao in China. Multi-taper method spectral analysis found periodicities of 18.6, 7.2, 4.0, 2.7–2.8, 2.4 and 2.2 years in 0.05 significant level and 10.2, 8.9, 5.0 and 2.0 years at 0.1 significant level. Our reconstructions are significantly correlated with the intensity of the East Asia Summer Monsoon, El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation.     

Bayesian inversion with Markov chains—I. The magnetotelluricone-dimensional case

We use Monte Carlo Markov chains to solve the Bayesian MT inverse problem in layered situations. The domain under study is divided into homogeneous layers, and the model parameters are the conductivity of each layer. We use an a priori distribution of the parameters which favours smooth models. For each layer, the a priori and a posteriori distributions are digitized over a limited set of conductivity values.
  The Markov chain relies on updating the model parameters during successive scanning of the domain under study. For each step of the scanning, the conductivity is updated in one layer given the actual value of the conductivity in the other layers. Thus we designed an ergodic Markov chain, the invariant distribution of which is the a posteriori distribution of the parameters, provided the forward problem is completely solved at each step.
  We have estimated the a posteriori marginal probability distributions from the simulated successive values of the Markov chain. In addition, we give examples of complex magnetotelluric impedance inversion in tabular situations, for both synthetic models and field situations, and discuss the influence of the smoothing parameter.     

Quantitative assessment of the reliability of chironomid remains in paleoecology: effects of count density and sample size

Random distributions for a wide range (1–100,000) of chironomid head capsules (HC) were simulated on a 1-m² surface. The number of HC found in circular surfaces equivalent to standard core diameters (90 and 63 mm) was estimated 1000 times, over the range of tested densities. For each number of HC found in the samples, the range of simulated densities was estimated using a threshold probability (p > 0.95). This enabled us to develop equations to infer HC density from sample counts. Because of the threshold probability for comparable sample counts, the equations yield higher estimated densities under a random distribution than for a regular distribution. The probability of sampling at least one HC was >0.95 for densities of 900 HC m^?2 for the 90-mm core and 1400 HC m^?2 for the 63-mm core. For a specific sample count, the range of actual densities was ~10 times higher for the 63-mm core than the 90-mm core. Comparison with field larval densities revealed that most densities were too low to be suitable for annually resolved reconstruction of a quantitative signal, using current corer sizes, although a large number of populations can support sub-decadal analyses. Nonetheless, some lakes exhibit population sizes large enough to reconstruct robust quantitative estimates of past chironomid abundances. This work provides guidance to reconstruct species dynamics and fine-scale time series analyses in paleoecology.     

树轮密度对气候的响应及重建研究进展

树轮密度是重建过去气候变化的重要代用指标。过去几十年,国内外学者针对树轮密度开展了大量的研究工作,取得了丰硕的成果。论文收集了国内外有关树轮密度的研究文献,从树轮密度对气候变化的响应和气候重建等方面进行了概述。尽管树轮密度对气候变化的响应可能受到样点的地理位置、地形(如海拔、坡向等)、树种等因素的影响,但湿冷地区树轮晚材最大密度能较好地反映生长季或生长季末期温度变化;而干旱地区的早材平均密度能揭示生长季早期的降水变化。因此,目前大多数研究以重建生长季或生长季末期温度为主,也有重建降水量、海平面气压变化的案例。此外,重建方程的方差解释量存在空间和树种间的差异,但这些差异需要更多的研究工作加以验证。最长的重建序列来自于欧洲,长达2018 a;国内基于树轮密度重建的最长温度序列来自于西南地区,长达449 a。另外,树轮密度序列在对温度响应的分异性问题以及评估强火山喷发的降温效应方面还存在争议。其争议源于树轮密度与温度关系还受到其他环境变量与人为因素的影响,因此今后研究还需关注树轮密度与降水、光照等其他气候变量的关系,同时也要注重树种、海拔、实验方法等非气候因子的影响。     

汉江上游郧县五峰段史前大洪水水文学恢复研究

通过深入的野外考察,在汉江上游郧县五峰段多个地点发现全新世古洪水事件的沉积学记录,为恢复史前特大洪水事件的洪峰水位和洪峰流量提供了物质基础。在系统获取河道水文参数的基础上,采用ArcGIS 耦合HEC-RAS模型,推算出其洪峰流量介于42 220~63 400m³/s 之间。对于河槽糙率的灵敏度检验表明,给定糙率变化±25%,模型模拟得到的洪峰流量误差在-10.6%~6.3%之间。这个误差范围远小于采用比降-面积法获得的结果。同时,采用该模型和同样的参数,依据该河段现代大洪水洪痕高程,恢复推算其洪峰流量,其结果与实测数据误差在-3.9%~1.0%之间。与其它方法相比较,这种新方法有效地提高了水文参数选取准确性,使得古洪水水文恢复计算结果更为可靠。本研究为超长尺度大洪水水文学恢复提供了新的途径,也获得了汉江上游万年尺度特大洪水的水文学数据资料,对汉江上游水利水电枢纽工程建设、水资源调度和防洪减灾具有重要的现实意义。