Typical source areas of May 1998 flow-like mass movements in the Campania region, Southern Italy

Flow-like mass movements in granular materials are among the most serious natural hazards, systematically producing huge amounts of damage and numerous victims, especially when involving volcanic soils. This is the case of the events in Southern Italy in May 1998, when rainfall triggered many destructive landslides along the slopes of a carbonate massif mantled by pyroclastic soils. Due to the complexity of the occurred phenomena, a shared interpretation of their triggering stage is still not available.

As a contribution to the topic, the paper initially discusses the geological and geomorphological features of the massif combining them in three hillslopes models. The models are then associated to the hydrogeological features and anthropogenic factors in order to define six typical landslides source areas that are not casually distributed on the massif. The study subsequently focuses on the most frequent type of source areas, associated to the largest unstable soil volumes and longest run-out distances. For these source areas, the triggering mechanism is discussed, with an example of geotechnical validation being proposed for a well monitored mountain basin. The geotechnical modelling at site scale confirms the geological analyses at massif scale and provides further insights into the events, thus highlighting the potential of a multidisciplinary approach for the interpretation of very complex slope instability phenomena.     

Modeling debris flow initiation and run-out in recently burned areas using data-driven methods

In the framework of the landslide susceptibility assessment, the maps produced should include not only the landslide initiation areas, but also those areas potentially affected by the traveling mobilized material. To achieve this purpose, the susceptibility analysis must be separated in two distinct components: (1) The first one, which is also the most discussed in the literature, deals with the susceptibility to failure, and (2) the second component refers to the run-out modeling using the initiation areas as an input. Therefore, in this research we present a debris flow susceptibility assessment in a recently burned area in a mountain zone in central Portugal. The modeling of debris flow initiation areas is performed using two statistical methods: a bivariate (information value) and a multivariate (logistic regression). The independent validation of the results generated areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves between 0.91 and 0.98. The slope angle, plan curvature, soil thickness and lithology proved to be the most relevant predisposing factors for the debris flow initiation in recently burned areas. The run-out is simulated by applying two different methods: the empirical model Flow Path Assessment of Gravitational Hazards at a Regional Scale (Flow-R) and the hydrological algorithm D-infinity downslope influence (DI). The run-out modeling of the 36 initiation areas included in the debris flow inventory delivered a true positive rate of 83.5% for Flow-R and 80.5% for DI, reflecting a good performance of both models. Finally, the susceptibility map for the entire basin including both the initiation and the run-out areas in a scenario of a recent wildfire was produced by combining the four models mentioned above.     

Mapping block-and-ash flow hazards based on Titan 2D simulations: a case study from Mt. Taranaki,NZ

Numerical models for simulation of mass flows are typically focussed upon accurately predicting the paths, travel times and inundation from a single flow or collapse event. When considering catchment-based hazards from a volcano, this is complicated by often being faced with several possible scenarios. Over the last 800 years at Mt. Taranaki/Egmont, a number of dome growth and collapse events have resulted in the genesis and emplacement of block-and-ash flows (BAFs). Each BAF was directed northwestward by a breach in the crater rim. The latest dome collapse events in the AD 1880s and AD 1755 inundated the northwestern flank and had run-out lengths 10 km from source. Future activity of this type could have a devastating effect on the Taranaki region’s communities, infrastructure and economy. Hazard planning has involved constructing volcanic hazard maps based upon the areas inundated by past volcanic flows, with little consideration of present-day topography. Here, a numerical geophysical mass flow modelling approach is used to forecast the hazards of future comparable BAF events on NW Mt. Taranaki. The Titan2D programme encompasses a “shallow water”, continuum solution-based, granular flow model. Flow mechanical properties needed for this approach include estimates of internal and basal friction as well as the physical dimensions of the initial collapse. Before this model can be applied to Taranaki BAFs, the input parameters must be calibrated by simulating a range of past collapse events. By using AD 1860 and AD 1755 scenarios, initial collapse volumes can be well constrained and internal and basal friction angles can be evaluated through an iterative approach from previous run-out lengths. A range of possible input parameters was, therefore, determined to produce a suite of potentially inundated areas under present-day terrain. A suite of 10 forecasts from a uniformly distributed range were combined to create a map of relative probabilities of inundation by future BAF events. These results were combined in a GIS package to produce hazard zones related to user-specified hazard thresholds. Using these input parameter constraints, future hazard forecasts for this scale and type of event can also take into account changing summit and topographic configurations following future eruptive or collapse events.     

Statistical Analysis of Landslide Events in Central America and their Run-out Distance

Statistical analyses of landslide deposits from similar areas provide information on dynamics and rheology, and are the basis for empirical relationships for the prediction of future events. In Central America landslides represent an important threat in both volcanic and non-volcanic areas. Data, mainly from 348 landslides in Nicaragua, and 19 in other Central American countries have been analyzed to describe landslide characteristics and to search for possible correlations and empirical relationships. The mobility of a landslide, expressed as the ratio between height of fall (H) and run-out distance (L) as a function of the volume and height of fall; and the relationship between the height of fall and run-out distance were studied for rock falls, slides, debris flows and debris avalanches. The data show differences in run-out distance and landslide mobility among different types of landslides and between debris flows in volcanic and non-volcanic areas. The new Central American data add to and seem consistent with data published from other regions. Studies combining field observations and empirical relationships with laboratory studies and numerical simulations will help in the development of more reliable empirical equations for the prediction of landslide run-out, with applications to hazard zonation and design of optimal risk mitigation measures.     

Experimental Study on the Mobility of Channelized Granular Mass Flow

Granular mass flows (e.g., debris flows/avalanches) in landslide-prone areas are of great concern because they often cause catastrophic disasters as a result of their long run-out distances and large impact forces. To investigate the factors influencing granular mass flow mobility, experimental tests were conducted in a flume model. Granular materials consisting of homogeneous sand and non-homogeneous sandy soil were used for studying particle size effects. Run-out tests with variable flow masses, water contents, and sloping channel confinement parameters were conducted as well. The results indicated that granular mass flow mobility was significantly influenced by the initial water content; a critical water content corresponding to the smallest flow mobility exists for different granular materials. An increase in the total flow mass generally induced a reduction in the travel angle (an increase in flow mobility). Consistent with field observations, the travel angles for different granular materials decreased roughly in proportion to the logarithm of mass. The flume model tests illustrate that the measured travel angles increase as the proportion of fine particles increases. Interestingly, natural terrain possesses critical confinement characteristics for different granular mass flows.     

A well-balanced numerical scheme for debris flow run-out prediction in Xiaojia Gully considering different hydrological designs

To simulate debris flow run-out, the governing equations for free-surface shallow flow are corrected by setting the basal flow resistance coefficients with the quadratic rheological friction model. A well-balanced numerical scheme is developed for its run-out simulation over irregular topography. A linear reconstruction is adopted for improving the spatial accuracy of the numerical scheme. Considering the complex friction terms of governing equations of debris flow, they are estimated with a full implicit scheme for ensuring stability of the numerical scheme. The validity check of run-out simulation is implemented based on general knowledge of fluid, and a well-studied case occurred in the Xiezi Gully in Yingxiu Town, Sichuan Province of China. For practical purpose, the present numerical scheme is used for run-out prediction of debris flow in Xiaojia Gully of Panzhihua City, Sichuan Province of China. Our work aims to present a well-balanced numerical scheme for debris flow run-out simulation prediction, which can be applied quite conveniently to solve other kinds of debris flow models and helpful to promote the development in debris flow numerical calculation.     

Application of a SPH depth-integrated model to landslide run-out analysis

Hazard and risk assessment of landslides with potentially long run-out is becoming more and more important. Numerical tools exploiting different constitutive models, initial data and numerical solution techniques are important for making the expert’s assessment more objective, even though they cannot substitute for the expert’s understanding of the site-specific conditions and the involved processes. This paper presents a depth-integrated model accounting for pore water pressure dissipation and applications both to real events and problems for which analytical solutions exist. The main ingredients are: (i) The mathematical model, which includes pore pressure dissipation as an additional equation. This makes possible to model flowslide problems with a high mobility at the beginning, the landslide mass coming to rest once pore water pressures dissipate. (ii) The rheological models describing basal friction: Bingham, frictional, Voellmy and cohesive-frictional viscous models. (iii) We have implemented simple erosion laws, providing a comparison between the approaches of Egashira, Hungr and Blanc. (iv) We propose a Lagrangian SPH model to discretize the equations, including pore water pressure information associated to the moving SPH nodes.     

Run-out analysis of flow-like landslides triggered by the Ms 8.0 2008 Wenchuan earthquake using smoothed particle hydrodynamics

Flow-like landslides have caused significant damage and casualties worldwide. However, studying such phenomena with traditional simulation methods is made difficult by their complex fluidization characteristics. In this paper, we use smoothed-particle hydrodynamics (SPH) for the run-out analysis of flow-like landslides. Compared with conventional methods, the proposed SPH modeling technique is the combination of a Bingham flow model and Navier?CStokes equations in the framework of computational fluid dynamics. At first, two benchmark problems of dam break and granular flow are simulated and verified to evaluate the accuracy of the SPH model. Then, run-out analyses are performed for flow-like landslides triggered by the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, China. Run-out analyses of the Tangjiashan, Wangjiayan, and Donghekou landslides are conducted by the application of SPH models to real flow-like landslides. All simulations show good agreement with characteristics of flow-like landslides observed in the field. We have found that numerical modeling can capture the fundamental dynamic behavior of these flow-like landslides and produce preliminary results for hazard assessment and site selection for reconstruction in earthquake-prone areas.     

Linking rainfall-induced landslides with predictions of debris flow runout distances

Rapid debris flows are among the most destructive natural hazards in steep mountainous terrains. Prediction of their path and impact hinges on knowledge of initiation location and the size and constitution of the released mass. To better link mass release initiation with debris flow paths and runout lengths, we propose to capitalize on a newly developed model for rainfall-induced landslide initiation (“Catchment-scale Hydro-mechanical Landslide Triggering” CHLT model, von Ruette et al. 2013) and couple it with simple estimates of debris flow runout distances and pathways. Landslide locations and volumes provided by the CHLT model are used as inputs to simulate debris flow runout distances with two empirical- and two physically-based models. The debris flow runout models were calibrated using two landslide inventories in the Swiss Alps obtained following a large rainfall event in 2005. We first fitted and tested the models for the “Prättigau” inventory, where detailed information on runout path was available, and then applied the models to landslides inventoried from a different catchment (“Napf”). The predicted debris flow runout distances (emanating from CHLT simulated landslide positions) were well in the range of observed values for the physically-based approaches. The empirical approaches tend to overestimate runout distances relative to observations. These preliminary results demonstrate the added value of linking shallow landslide triggering models with predictions of debris flow runout pathways for a range of soil states and triggering events, thus providing a more complete hazard assessment picture for debris flow exposure at the catchment scale.     

土质滑坡运动全过程物质点法模拟及其应用

物质点法（MPM）属于一种无网格数值计算方法,它可导入各种土体本构模型,考虑土体流固耦合行为,能够有效模拟土质滑坡大变形及超大变形。本文介绍了物质点法基本原理、控制方程与求解格式;基于5种物质点法的多孔介质表征模型,简要回顾了土质滑坡运动全过程物质点法模拟的最新研究进展。采用单套单相物质点模型,对深圳“12·20”人工堆填土滑坡全过程进行了物质点法模拟,使用了线性加载方式确定初始应力场,并使用了Drucker-Prager屈服准则弹塑性本构模型、GIMP算法与MUSL求解格式。模拟结果表明,该边坡发生失稳后,最大滑距达510m,滑坡范围纵向间距为1050m,最小滑坡角5.95°,均与观测结果相吻合。土体内部等效塑性应变区的演化趋势显示,滑坡机制为渐进式破坏,具体表现为:坡趾土体首先沿基岩界面发生剪切破坏,随后坡顶出现拉张裂隙,坡趾与坡顶塑性区分别沿基岩界面向坡体内部发育,形成贯通滑动面后滑动加速,超大变形出现。物质点法模拟滑坡运动全过程有助于理解滑坡致灾行为,可为滑坡防治提供参考。     

Numerical simulations of flow motion and deposition characteristics of granular debris flows

Flow motion and deposition characteristics of debris flows are of concern regarding land use planning and management. A simple model for the prediction of mentioned characteristics has been developed, incorporating a friction–collision rheological model. It demonstrated to be able to satisfactorily simulate the two-dimensional behavior of laboratory results and the one-dimensional behavior of two real debris-flow events. The numerical results show that the topography of the channel bed, the yield stress level of the debris flows, and the inflow pattern have significant influence on the simulated flow motion and deposition characteristics of debris flows. In addition, the predicted run-out distance has been compared with analytical solutions and field observations. The model could be employed for the preliminary evaluation of one-dimensional run-out distance of granular debris flows provided that the volume of the debris involved in the initial mobilization is assumed.     

冰屑对冰-岩碎屑流运动特性影响作用的初步分析

冰-岩碎屑流是一种发育在高寒山区、含固态水的特殊碎屑流,具有超强的运动性。冰屑对提高冰-岩碎屑流运动性至关重要,但对其认识仍较为不足。通过对2000年易贡滑坡的灾史资料分析和野外调查,指出易贡滑坡启动时携带冰川冰体、运动时铲刮含冰碎屑物,而且具有规模大、冲出距离远的运动特性,是典型的冰-岩碎屑流。进而引入斜槽实验模拟岩土体上覆冰川冰体失稳下滑的过程,验证调查发现的堆积体前端坑洞群问题,探讨冰-岩碎屑材料冲出距离与含冰量、冰屑岩屑粒径比的关系。研究发现,冰屑可能包裹在碎屑流前端并全程参与碎屑流运动,在停积后由于融化而在堆积体上形成坑洞。被包裹的冰屑能够提高冰-岩碎屑材料的冲出距离,但含冰量较大时冰屑可能由于黏结成团、不易进入碎屑流内部而导致冲出距离变小。由此归结得到,冰屑提高碎屑流冲出距离的一个重要前提为冰屑进入碎屑流内部,当冰屑与岩屑的粒径比越小时冰屑越容易进入。这项研究工作为认识冰屑影响提供了坑洞调查法和斜槽实验法,研究成果有助于更为深入地认识冰-岩碎屑流运动特性的冰屑影响机理,为预防冰-岩碎屑流的远程致灾提供科学依据。     

An integrated model to assess critical rainfall thresholds for run-out distances of debris flows

A dramatic increase in debris flows occurred in the years after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in SW China due to the deposition of loose co-seismic landslide material. This paper proposes a preliminary integrated model, which describes the relationship between rain input and debris flow run-out in order to establish critical rain thresholds for mobilizing enough debris volume to reach the basin outlet. The model integrates in a simple way rainfall, surface runoff, and concentrated erosion of the loose material deposited in channels, propagation, and deposition of flow material. The model could be calibrated on total volumes of debris flow materials deposited at the outlet of the Shuida catchment during two successive rain events which occurred in August 2011. The calibrated model was used to construct critical rainfall intensity-duration graphs defining thresholds for a run-out distance until the outlet of the catchment. Model simulations show that threshold values increase after successive rain events due to a decrease in erodible material. The constructed rainfall intensity-duration threshold graphs for the Shuida catchment based on the current situation appeared to have basically the same exponential value as a threshold graph for debris flow occurrences, constructed for the Wenjia catchment on the basis of 5 observed triggering rain events. This may indicate that the triggering mechanism by intensive run-off erosion in channels in this catchment is the same. The model did not account for a supply of extra loose material by landslips transforming into debris flow or reaching the channels for transportation by run-off. In August 2012, two severe rain events were measured in the Shuida catchment, which did not produce debris flows. This could be confirmed by the threshold diagram constructed by the model.     

Avalanche hazard mapping over large undocumented areas

An innovative methodology to perform avalanche hazard mapping over large undocumented areas is herewith presented and discussed. The method combines GIS tools, computational routines, and statistical analysis in order to provide a “semi-automatic” definition of areas potentially affected by avalanche release and motion. The method includes two main modules. The first module is used to define zones of potential avalanche release, based on the consolidated relations on slope, morphology, and vegetation. For each of the identified zones of potential release, a second module, named Avalanche Flow and Run-out Algorithm (AFRA), provides an automatic definition of the areas potentially affected by avalanche motion and run-out. The definition is generated by a specifically implemented “flow-routing algorithm” which allows for the determination of flow behaviour in the track and in the run-out zone. In order to estimate the avalanche outline in the run-out zone, AFRA uses a “run-out cone”, which is a 3D projection of the angle of reach α. The α-value is evaluated by statistical analysis of historical data regarding extreme avalanches. Pre- and post-processing of the AFRA input/output data is done in an open source GIS environment (GRASS GIS). The method requires only a digital terrain model and an indication of the areas covered by forest as input parameters. The procedure, which allows rapid mapping of large areas, does not in principle require any site-specific historical information. Furthermore, it has proven to be effective in all cases where a preliminary cost-efficient analysis of the territories potentially affected by snow avalanche was needed.     

Fold crest degradation and slump deposition in the deepwater Niger Delta,Nigeria

This study uses 3D seismic reflection dataset to investigate the time-integrated growth and degradation of fault-propagation folds and associated slump deposits in the deepwater Niger Delta. The results of the analysis showed that slump deposits are sourced almost entirely from the degradation of growing fold crests—resulting in the development of seaward-facing scarps on the forelimbs of these folds. The scarps develop parallel to fold axes and have dips that range between 4° SW and 20° SW. The constant presence of fan-shaped slump deposits downdip of these scarps suggests a direct relationship to fold crest degradation. Moreover, the spatio-temporal distribution of the slumps also shows a direct relationship with the heights of seabed scarps along the strike of growing folds. Slumps have short run-out distances (generally less than 5 km); however, they also travel long distances downslope (up to 10 km) across growing structures by exploiting relay areas between growing scarps.     

Scenario simulation of the geohazard dynamic process of large-scale landslides: a case study of the Xiaomojiu landslide along the Jinsha River

Natural Hazards - Large-scale landslides often cause severe damage due to their long run-out distances and having disaster chain effects. Scenario simulation has been adopted in the current work in...     

Bayesian active learning for parameter calibration of landslide run-out models

Landslides - Landslide run-out modeling is a powerful model-based decision support tool for landslide hazard assessment and mitigation. Most landslide run-out models contain parameters that cannot...     

Numerical issues in computing inundation areas over natural terrains using Savage-Hutter theory

When characterizing geologic natural hazards, specifically granular flows including pyroclastic flows, debris avalanches and debris flows, perhaps the most important factor to consider is the area of inundation. One of the key parameters demarcating the leading edge of inundation is the run-out distance. To define the run-out distance, it is necessary to know when the flow stops. Numerical experiments are presented for determining a stopping criterion and exploring the suitability of the Savage-Hutter theory for computing inundation areas of granular flows. The stopping criterion is a function of dimensionless average velocity, pile aspect ratio and internal and bed friction angle and can be implemented on either a global (entire flow) or local (small areas of the flow) level. Slumping piles on a horizontal surface, and geophysical flows over complex topography were simulated. Mountainous areas, such as Colima volcano, Mexico; Casita, Nicaragua; Little Tahoma Peak, USA, and the San Bernardino Mountains, USA, were used as test regions. These areas have combinations of steep, open slopes and sinuous channels. Because of differences in topography and physical scaling, slumping piles in the laboratory and geophysical flows in natural terrain must be scaled differently to determine a reasonable dimensionless relationship for the stopping criterion.     

Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda,northern Italy

Quantitative landslide risk assessment requires information about the temporal, spatial and intensity probability of hazardous processes both regarding their initiation as well as their run-out. This is followed by an estimation of the physical consequences inflicted by the hazard, preferentially quantified in monetary values. For that purpose, deterministic hazard modelling has to be coupled with information about the value of the elements at risk and their vulnerability. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to determine physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk can suffer an impact. These results can then be applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. Debris flow risk has been assessed in the area of Tresenda in the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, northern Italy). Three quantitative hazard scenarios for different return periods were prepared using available rainfall and geotechnical data. The numerical model FLO-2D was applied for the simulation of the debris flow propagation. The modelled hazard scenarios were consequently overlaid with the elements at risk, represented as building footprints. The expected physical damage to the buildings was estimated using vulnerability functions based on flow depth and impact pressure. A qualitative correlation between physical vulnerability and human losses was also proposed. To assess the uncertainties inherent in the analysis, six risk curves were obtained based on the maximum, average and minimum values and direct economic losses to the buildings were estimated, in the range of 0.25–7.7 million €, depending on the hazard scenario and vulnerability curve used.     

Susceptibility analysis of shallow landslides source areas using physically based models

Rainfall-induced shallow landslides of the flow-type involve different soils, and they often cause huge social and economical disasters, posing threat to life and livelihood all over the world. Due to the frequent large extension of the rainfall events, these landslides can be triggered over large areas (up to tens of square kilometres), and their source areas can be analysed with the aid of distributed, physically based models. Despite the high potential, such models show some limitations related to the adopted simplifying assumptions, the quantity and quality of required data, as well as the use of a quantitative interpretation of the results. A relevant example is provided in this paper referring to catastrophic phenomena involving volcaniclastic soils that frequently occur in southern Italy. Particularly, three physically based models (SHALSTAB, TRIGRS and TRIGRS-unsaturated) are used for the analysis of the source areas of huge rainfall-induced shallow landslides occurred in May 1998 inside an area of about 60 km². The application is based on an extensive data set of topographical, geomorphological and hydrogeological features of the affected area, as well as on both stratigraphical settings and mechanical properties of the involved soils. The results obtained from the three models are compared by introducing two indexes aimed at quantifying the “success” and the “error” provided by each model in simulating observed source areas. Advantages and limitations of the adopted models are then discussed for their use in forecasting the rainfall-induced source areas of shallow landslides over large areas.