京津唐地区细菌性痢疾社会经济影响时空分析

细菌性痢疾是常见疾病,也是备受关注的公共健康问题。近年来,京津唐地区的细菌性痢疾发病率相对较高。本文首先分析了2012年京津唐地区细菌性痢疾的季节性和人群特征;其次,使用热点分析模型,探索了京津唐地区细菌性痢疾发病率的时空聚集性;最后,运用地理探测器模型研究了细菌性痢疾的发生和社会经济因素之间的量化关系。结果表明：① 细菌性痢疾发病的峰值时间是8月;发病率最高的年龄段是0-9岁,其次是80岁以上;农民群体发病率最高,其次是散居儿童。② 京津唐地区细菌性痢疾在空间和时间上都存在聚集性。空间上,细菌性痢疾发病率的高聚集区主要分布于北京市的房山区及门头沟区和天津市的滨海新区,低聚集区主要分布于唐山市的滦县,时间上,细菌性痢疾发病率的高聚集区在12个月均有发生,低聚集区主要发生在1-4月以及6月。③ 影响细菌性痢疾发病率空间分布的主要社会经济因素为农村人口占总人口的比例、人口密度和各区县的人均GDP,它们的解释力分别为61%,37%和20%,并且发现它们的交互作用都大于独自影响的作用。本研究通过对京津唐地区细菌性痢疾发病情况的人群特征、时空特征以及影响因素的分析,为本地区细菌性痢疾的预防和控制提供理论依据。     

Spatial-temporal variation of phytoplankton community structure in Jiaozhou Bay,China

To better understand the spatial-temporal variation in phytoplankton community structure and its controlling factors in Jiaozhou Bay,Qingdao,North China,four seasonal sampling were carried out in 2017.The phytoplankton community structure and various environmental parameters were examined.The phytoplankton community in the bay was composed of mainly diatoms and dinoflagellates,and several other species of Chrysophyta were also observed.Diatoms were the most dominant phytoplankton group throughout the year,except in spring and winter,when Noctiluca scintillans was co-dominant.High Si/N ratios in summer and fall reflect the high dominance of diatoms in the two seasons.Temporally,the phytoplankton cell abundance peaked in summer,due mainly to the high temperatures and nutrient concentrations in summer.Spatially,the phytoplankton cell abundance was higher in the northern part of the bay than in the other parts of the bay in four seasons.The diatom cell abundances show significant positive correlations with the nutrient concentrations,while the dinoflagellate cell abundances show no correlation or a negative correlation with the nutrient concentrations but a significant positive correlation with the stratification index.This discrepancy was mainly due to the different survival strategies between diatoms and dinoflagellates.The Shannon-Wiener diversity index(H')values in the bay ranged from 0.08 to 4.18,which fell in the range reported in historical studies.The distribution pattern of H' values was quite different from that of chlorophyll a,indicating that the phytoplankton community structure might have high biomass with a low diversity index.Compared with historical studies,we believe that the dominant phytoplankton species have been changed in recent years due mainly to the changing environment in the Jiaozhou Bay in recent 30 years.     

Spatial-temporal changes of vegetation cover in Guizhou Province,Southern China

Guizhou Province is an important karst area in the world and a fragile ecological area in China. Ecological risk assessment is very necessary to be conducted in this region. This study investigates different characteristics of the spatial-temporal changes of vegetation cover in Guizhou Province of Southern China using the data set of SPOT VEGETATION(1999–2015) at spatial resolution of 1-km and temporal resolution of 10-day. The coefficient of variation, the Theil-Sen median trend analysis, and the Mann-Kendall test are used to investigate the spatial-temporal change of vegetation cover and its future trend. Results show that: 1) the spatial distribution pattern of vegetation cover in Guizhou Plateau is high in the east whereas low in the west. The average annual normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) from west to east is higher than that from south to north. 2) Average annual NDVI improved obviously in the past 17 years. The growth rate of average annual NDVI is 0.028/10 yr, which is slower than that of vegetation in the country(0.048/10 yr) from 1998 to 2007. Average annual NDVI in karst area is lower than that in non-karst area. However, the growing rate of average annual NDVI in karst area(0.030/10 yr) is faster than that in non-karst area(0.023/10 yr), indicating that vegetation coverage increases more rapidly in karst area. 3) Vegetation coverage in the study area is stable overall, but fluctuates in the local scales. 4) Vegetation coverage presents a continuous increasing trend. The Hurst exponent of NDVI in different vegetation types has an obvious threshold in various elevations. 5) The proportion of vegetation cover with sustainable increase is higher than that of vegetation cover with sustainable decrease. The improvement in vegetation cover may expand to most parts of the study area.     

近30年来青海省三江源区草地的土壤侵蚀时空分析

分析了青海省三江源区草地生态系统土壤侵蚀的空间差异,以及草地退化与土壤侵蚀的关系,并对该区近30年来土壤侵蚀的动念变化进行描述.结果表明,该区域微度以上土壤侵蚀面积占源区总面积的46.47%,而草地生态系统发生微度以上土壤侵蚀的面积比例达56.04%.源区土壤侵蚀类型是以冻融侵蚀伴随着水力侵蚀或风力侵蚀的复合侵蚀为主,...     

Spatial-temporal Analysis and Prediction of Precipitation Extremes:A Case Study in the Weihe River Basin,China

Extreme precipitation events bring considerable risks to the natural ecosystem and human life.Investigating the spatial-tem-poral characteristics of extreme pre...     

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL CHANGES AND TRENDS OF AGEING IN CHINA

This study focuses on the development stages of ageing and its regional differences in China based on examination of official statistics and documents. The development of ageing in China has experienced three major stages. Firstly, in the 1950s, low coefficient of elderly population （over 65 years） paced up to primary adult type. Secondly, there was a deeply drop of the elderly population because of natural disaster and political factors in the 1960s. Thirdly, from the 1970s to the end of 20th century, the constant increasing of elderly coefficient made China close to elderly society. With statistic data of population, Logistic model is used to simulate the future development of ageing, and two characteristics of development of ageing are presented. Firstly, as for ageing from 2005 to 2050, the elderly coefficient will grow up significantly from 8.48% to 16.30%. Secondly, after 2025, the increasing rate of elderly coefficient will slow down gradually. The regional differences of elderly population in China can be summarized as follows： 1） the eastern China possesses higher elderly coefficient and huger elder population than the western China; 2） about 47.4% of municipalities and provinces in the eastern China become elderly especially Shanghai, Zhejiang Province, Jiangsu Province, Beijing, Tianjin and Shandong Province; 3） ageing intensity is higher in rural area than urban area but getting close each other, and there are more elderly people in rural area than in urban area. Therefore, these will arose aged care problems, and it becomes important issue to establish the social security system in rural areas as soon as possible for elderly people.     

Salt lakes and their origins in Xinjiang,China

This paper, based on field data and experimental results, gives an analysis and summary of the types and salt-forming characteristics of salt lakes in Xinjiang, and the distribution and chemical compositions of their brines and groups of salt minerals. The evolution and substance origins of the salt lakes and their salt-forming regularities as seen from analyses of their paleogeographic environment and geological tectonics are also reported. This paper will serve as a reference for further investigation of the Xinjiang salt lakes, and as a guide for fuller utilization of their resources. This paper was published in Chinese inOcean. Limn. Sinica 15(2):168–178, 1984.     

Spatial-temporal variability of submesoscale currents in the South China Sea

Spatial and seasonal variabilities of submesoscale currents in the northeastern South China Sea are investigated by employing a numerical simulation with a horizontal resolution of 1 km. The results suggest that submesoscale currents are widespread in the surface mixed layer mainly due to the mixed layer instabilities and frontogenesis. In horizontal, submesoscale currents are generally more active in the north than those in the south, since that active eddies, especially cyclonic eddies, mainly occur in the northern area. Specifically, submesoscale currents are highly intensified in the east of Dongsha Island and south of Taiwan Island. In temporal sense, submesoscale currents are more active in winter than those in summer,since the mixed layer is thicker and more unstable in the winter. The parameterization developed by FoxKemper et al. is examined in terms of vertical velocity, and the results suggest that it could reproduce the vertical velocity if mixed layer instability dominates there. This study improves our understanding of the submesoscale dynamics in the South China Sea.     

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL DISPARITIES OF INTERNET DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA

This paper attempts to summarize the disparities of lnternet development in China spatially-temporally. The major objective is to measure the differences between Eastern, Central and Western China. Methods of map presentation, correlation, Lorenz curve, Gini Coefficient and location quotient analysis are conductcd in this study.For convenience, the indicator of regional lnternet development is simplified as the number of domain names registered under .CN in each province. The data used are collected from the semi-annual surveys of the Statistical surrey Report on the Internet Development in China since 1999. There are several findings: 1)The number of domain names in each province (city) declines gradually from the east to the west. 2) The gap between the highest growth provinces (cities) and the lowest ones is rather large. 3) Although the absolute differences between the eastern, ccntral and western China have been enlarged, the relative diffcrences in each province (city) have remained constant.4) Provinces (cities) are classified into three types according to location quotient changes, namely, rising type,changeless type and declining type. Compared with industrial and economic growth, lnternet sector in the eastern and western China is relatively ascending, while that in the central China is descending. 5) The number of domain names at provincial level is not statistically consistent with GDP.     

Spatial-temporal characteristics of land subsidence corresponding to dynamic groundwater funnel in Beijing Municipality,China

Due to long-term over-exploitation of groundwater in Beijing Municipality,regional groundwater funnels have formed and land subsidence has been induced.By combining a groundwater monitoring network,GPS monitor-ing network data,radar satellite SAR data,GIS and other new technologies,a coupled process model based on the dy-namic variation of groundwater and the deformation response of land subsidence has been established.The dynamic variation of groundwater funnels and the land subsidence response process were analyzed systematically in Beijing.Study results indicate that current groundwater funnel areas are distributed mainly in the southwest of Shunyi District,the northeast of Chaoyang District and the northwest of Tongzhou District,with an average decline rate of groundwa-ter level of 2.66 m/yr and a maximum of 3.82 m/yr in the center of the funnels.Seasonal and interannual differences exist in the response model of land subsidence to groundwater funnels with uneven spatial and temporal distribution,where the maximum land subsidence rate was about-41.08 mm/yr and the area with a subsidence rate greater than 30 mm/yr was about 1637.29 km2.Although a consistency was revealed to exist between a groundwater funnel and the spatial distribution characteristics of the corresponding land subsidence funnel,this consistency was not perfect.The results showed that the response model of land subsidence to the dynamic variation of groundwater was more revealing when combining conventional technologies with InSAR,GIS,GPS,providing a new strategy for environmental and hydrogeological research and a scientific basis for regional land subsidence control.     

2008-2018年中国手足口病时空分异特征

手足口病是一种在婴幼儿中多发的常见传染病,对儿童的身体健康具有重要影响.为揭示我国手足口病的时空分异特征,为手足口病的防控提供科学依据,本文选取自2008年手足口病被列为丙类传染病以来至2018年中国手足口病发病率为研究数据,运用全局莫兰指数、Getis-Ord Gi*、新兴时空热点分析和标准差椭圆等空间统计方法对中国...     

Spatial-temporal Patterns and Driving Forces of Water Retention Service in China

Overwhelming water-deficiency conditions and an unbalanced water supply and demand have been major concerns of both the Chinese government and the general public during recent decades. Studying the spatial-temporal patterns and impact factors that influence water retention in China is important to enhance the management of water resources in China and other similar countries. We employed a revised Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST) model and regression analyses to investigate the water retention service in China. The results showed that the southeastern China generally performed much better than Northwest China in terms of the spatial distribution of water retention. In general, the efficacy of the water retention service in China increased from 2000 to 2014; although some areas still had a downward trend. Water retention service increased significantly(P < 0.05) in aggregate in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the Da Hinggan Mountains and Xiao Hinggan Mountains. However, the service in southwestern China showed a decreasing trend(P < 0.05), which would have significant negative impact on the downstream population. This study also showed that in China the changes in water retention service were primarily due to climate change(which could explain 83.49% of the total variance), with anthropogenic impact as a secondary influence(likewise the ecological programs and socioeconomic development could explain 9.47% and 1.06%, respectively). Moreover, the identification of water retention importance indicated that important areas conservation and selection based on downstream beneficiaries is vital for optimization protection of ecosystem services, and has practical significance for natural resources and ecosystem management.     

重要经济发展区域间海运网络时空演变特性分析

“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家（MSR）、金砖国家（BRICS）、美日韩（AJK）是重要经济发展区域。研究其海运网络的时空演变规律有助于国家层面的贸易竞争均衡分析,对海运战略科学部署和智慧应对具有十分重要的意义。AIS（Automatic Identification System）数据具有实时性,且已基本覆盖全球港口的近海区域,能为海运网络提供及时分析的数据支撑。本文利用AIS数据挖掘MSR、BRICS、AJK的运输网络时空演变规律,结果表明,MSR散货、集装箱、油轮的内部网络结构的变化明显大于AJK和BRICS,说明“一带一路”倡议促进了MSR的内部海运贸易;MSR、AJK和BRICS的外部网络结构变化2013-2016年都较大,说明“一带一路”倡议的实施期间,MSR、AJK和BRICS 3个区域之间的海运贸易变化较大;3个区域的集装箱、油轮吞吐量加权的内外部海运网络结构2015-2016年较2013-2014年更为稳定,随着“一带一路”倡议的实施,这3个区域内部和区域之间的吞吐量加权海运网络结构变化幅度逐步减小。“一带一路”倡议对不同的经济发展区域的影响不同,对MSR的内外部海运网络结构都产生了一定影响,对BRICS散货、集装箱、油轮型海运网络的影响呈现差异化特征,对AJK内部海运网络没有影响,对AJK的外部网络产生了部分影响。提高MSR的海运贸易吞吐量,提升MSR在海运网络中的贸易地位,仍是当前的发展重点。     

中国省域煤矿事故时空分异特征及影响因素研究

煤矿事故给国家和人民带来巨大的生命财产损失,科学把握煤矿事故发生的宏观规律及区域煤矿安全的影响因素有助于促进煤矿安全生产。本文尝试采用GIS空间分析方法开展区域煤矿事故的研究,基于空间自相关性、时空演化规律方法研究了2006-2015年中国省域煤矿事故的时空分异特点,并分析了省域煤矿安全的影响因素及相对风险度。主要结论：①中国各省区之间煤矿事故存在明显的空间自相关性,但随着各省区煤矿安全生产形势改善情况的不同,其自相关性在不断下降;②以空间重心转移曲线分析中国煤矿事故发生的时空演化规律,10年间煤矿事故空间重心向东北方向转移。③重特大事故频发的省区由于监管措施的有力执行往往具有较低的煤矿百万吨死亡率;平均煤矿生产能力低的省区具有较高的煤矿百万吨死亡率;④建立基于解释变量的贝叶斯空间模型,以煤炭百万吨死亡率为指标评估中国各省区煤矿事故相对风险度,中国煤矿安全生产相对危险度存在明显的空间分布规律且各省区差异较大,相对危险度较高的省区主要集中在南方地区,包括湖北、福建等,危险度较低的省区主要集中在中东部地区,包括山西、内蒙古等。     

Spatial-temporal pattern and population driving force of land use change in Liupan Mountains region, southern Ningxia, China

The Liupan Mountains is located in the southern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China, which forms an important dividing line between landforms and bio-geographic regions. The populated part of the Liupan Mountains region has suffered tremendous ecological damages over time due to population pressure, excessive demand and inappropriate use of agricultural land resources. In this paper, datasets of land use between 1990 and 2000 were obtained from Landsat TM imagery, and then spatial models were used to characterize landscape conditions. Also, the relationship between the population density and land use/cover change （LUCC） was analyzed. Results indicate that cropland, forestland, and urban areas have increased by 44,186ha, 9001ha and 1550ha, respectively while the grassland area has appreciably decreased by 54,025ha in the study period. The decrease in grassland was most notable. Of the grassland lost, 49.4% was converted into cropland. The largest annual land conversion rate in the study area was less than 2%. These changes are attributed to industrial and agricultural development and population growth. To improve the eco-economic conditions in the study region, population control, urbanization and development of an ecological friendly agriculture were suggested.     

中国土地利用时空数据平台建设及其支持下的相关研究

20世纪 90年代中期 ,我们建立了国家资源环境动态信息服务运行系统。在土地利用数据库的建设过程中 ,其中 5 2 0 L andsat TM遥感影像经过地理配准和几何校正后 ,在全数字解译环境下 ,解译并绘制了 1∶ 10万的土地利用图。现已将其矢量数据转换为 1km的栅格数据 (包括所有高分辨率的、通过计算每个网格内各土地利用类型的面积百分比而获得的土地利用信息)。因此 ,国家资源环境动态服务系统可用来监测国家尺度的土地利用的变化。     

20世纪90年代中国东西部土地利用变化时空特征分析

在覆盖全国的1km栅格土地利用本底与动态成分数据时空信息平台支持下,应用土地利用动态度模型,分别计算了全国及东西部地区土地利用一级类型的单一和综合动态度,并分析了土地利用动态度的空间格局。通过分析东西部土地利用类型变化特征和土地利用类型转换特征,对20世纪90年代中国东西部土地利用变化过程的时空特征进行了全面分析,揭示了东西部地区土地利用变化的时空规律。并对主要土地利用类型变化的原因进行了分析。     

基于地理探测器的中国中部城市土地绿色利用效率时空演变及影响因素研究

中部崛起战略后,中国中部六省（湖北省、湖南省、安徽省、山西省、江西省和河南省）经济快速发展,建成区面积不断扩张,不仅威胁粮食安全,更加剧资源环境约束。在此背景下,本文采用2007—2018年中部六省80个地级市面板数据,并运用Malmquist-Luerberger指数、重心模型、空间计量模型和地理探测器模型分析中部六省80个地级市土地绿色利用效率时演变、重心移动轨迹变化及其影响因素情况。结果表明：① 2007—2018年中部六省土地绿色利用效率增长是靠技术进步“单轨驱动”的。② 城市土地绿色利用效率值表现出明显的空间分异特征,且重心总体向东北方向移动。③ 中部六省各地级市之间土地绿色利用效率存在空间依赖性和空间溢出效应。④ 除城市建设用地面积外,城镇化率、产业结构高级化水平、经济发展水平、外商直接投资额均正向影响中部六省80个地级市土地绿色利用效率。其中,各个影响因素对土地绿色利用效率的影响从强到弱依次为产业结构高级化水平、外商直接投资额、建设用地面积、城镇化率、经济发展水平。     

Spatial-temporal Analysis of Daily Air Quality Index in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China During 2014 and 2016

Urban air pollution is a prominent problem related to the urban development in China, especially in the densely populated urban agglomerations. Therefore, scientific examination of regional variation of air quality and its dominant factors is of great importance to regional environmental management. In contrast to traditional air pollution researches which only concentrate on a single year or a single pollutant, this paper analyses spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of air quality in disparate regions based on the air quality index(AQI) of the Yangtze River Delta region(YRD) of China from 2014 to 2016. Results show that the annual average value of the AQI in the YRD region decreases from 2014 to 2016 and exhibit a basic characteristic of ‘higher in winter, lower in summer and slightly high in spring and autumn'. The attainment rate of the AQI shows an apparently spatial stratified heterogeneity, Hefei metropolitan area and Nanjing metropolitan area keeping the worst air quality. The frequency of air pollution occurring in large regions was gradually decreasing during the study period. Drawing from entropy method analysis, industrialization and urbanization represented by per capita GDP and total energy consumption were the most important factors. Furthermore, population agglomeration is a factor that cannot be ignored especially in some mega-cities. Limited to data collection, more research is needed to gain insight into the spatiotemporal pattern and influence mechanism in the future.