树轮最大密度记录的吉尔吉斯斯坦天山山区公元1650年以来的7-8月温度变化

利用吉尔吉斯斯坦天山山区3个采样点的雪岭云杉树轮最大密度数据建立区域树轮最大密度年表（RC）。气候响应分析发现,区域树轮最大密度年表与7-8月平均温度显著相关。在此基础上,利用区域树轮最大密度年表重建了吉尔吉斯斯坦天山山区自1650年以来的7-8月温度变化,重建方程的方差解释量高达45．3％（Radj^2=44．7％,N=95,F=77．029）。重建结果显示,在过去的346a中吉尔吉斯斯坦天山山区7-8月平均温度的异常高温年份为40a,异常低温年份为46a,且存在11个低温时段（16501654,1662-1678,1693-1703,1779-1794,1801-1805,1811-1819,1834-1854,1882-1910,1917-1923,1952-1975和1986-1992年）和11个高温时段（1655-1661,1679-1692,1704-1778,1795-1800,1806-1810,1820-1833,1855-1881,1911-1916,1924-1951,1976-1985和1994-至今）。突变和周期分析揭示该地区的温度变化受到了火山、太阳活动和海陆气交互作用的共同影响。此外,在过去的346a来气候以暖干／冷湿为主,近20a来出现了明显暖湿化趋势。     

Trans-Tasman Sea climate variability since ad 1740 inferred from middle to high latitude tree-ring data

The limited length and spatial coverage of instrumental climate data for many areas of the Southern Hemisphere impedes the study of atmosphere-ocean dynamics prior to the past century. Such analyses are important for understanding interannual to decadal variation of the Southern Hemisphere circulation and whether recent changes are related to anthropogenic effects rather than natural variability. We use a middle- to high-latitude tree-ring width data set (from Tasmania, New Zealand and Tierra del Fuego) to reconstruct sea-level pressure (SLP) variability spanning the Tasman Sea and vicinity since ad 1740. The variables reconstructed are austral summer (November–March) SLP for Hobart, Tasmania (43°S, 147°E) and the Chatham Islands, New Zealand (44°S, 177°E), as well as a meridional circulation index (Hobart-Chatham Islands index) which measures the pressure gradient between these two stations. The three reconstructions are well verified statistically and capture between 40 and 48% of the variance in the SLP data. The instrumental and estimated SLP show similar spatial patterns of correlation with the sea surface temperature (SST) field for the Pacific. Statistically significant (above 95% level) 3–3.5 year spectral peaks are identified in the three reconstructions using multitaper spectral analysis, and a significant 4–5 year peak is found in both the Chatham Islands and Hobart-Chatham Islands SLP reconstructions. These two modes are within the bandwidth of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Although very speculative, they may also correspond to a proposed Antarctic circumpolar wave of SLP, SST, wind and sea-ice extent, believed to play a key role in atmosphere-ocean circulation for the Southern Hemisphere. Received: 30 November 1998 / Accepted: 13 December 1999     

Long-term summer temperature reconstruction inferred from tree-ring records from the Eastern Carpathians

The first 1,000 year long Carpathian tree-ring width chronology was established based on living and subfossil stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) samples from an upper timberline forest located in Calimani Mts. (Romania). Tree-ring data were standardized using the regional curve standardization method in order to preserve the low and medium frequency climate signals. The de-trended index strongly correlates with summer mean temperature both at annual and decadal scales. The Calimani summer mean temperature anomalies were reconstructed for the period ad 1163-2005 applying the rescaling method. This new climate proxy from the Carpathians shows similar fluctuations to other North Hemispheric temperature reconstructions, but with periods of distinct differences. The fingerprint of Little Ice Age in the Calimani area is visible between ad 1370 and 1630 followed by lagged cold decades in ad 1820 and 1840. The recent warming is evident only after the 1980s in our reconstruction.     

Eastern Mediterranean summer temperatures since 730 CE from Mt. Smolikas tree-ring densities

The Mediterranean has been identified as particularly vulnerable to climate change, yet a high-resolution temperature reconstruction extending back into the Medieval Warm Period is still lacking. Here we present such a record from a high-elevation site on Mt. Smolikas in northern Greece, where some of Europe’s oldest trees provide evidence of warm season temperature variability back to 730 CE. The reconstruction is derived from 192 annually resolved, latewood density series from ancient living and relict Pinus heldreichii trees calibrating at r1911–2015 = 0.73 against regional July–September (JAS) temperatures. Although the recent 1985–2014 period was the warmest 30-year interval (JAS Twrt.1961–1990 = + 0.71 °C) since the eleventh century, temperatures during the ninth to tenth centuries were even warmer, including the warmest reconstructed 30-year period from 876–905 (+ 0.78 °C). These differences between warm periods are statistically insignificant though. Several distinct cold episodes punctuate the Little Ice Age, albeit the coldest 30-year period is centered during high medieval times from 997–1026 (− 1.63 °C). Comparison with reconstructions from the Alps and Scandinavia shows that a similar cold episode occurred in central Europe but was absent at northern latitudes. The reconstructions also reveal different millennial-scale temperature trends (NEur = − 0.73 °C/1000 years, CEur = − 0.13 °C, SEur = + 0.23 °C) potentially triggered by latitudinal changes in summer insolation due to orbital forcing. These features, the opposing millennial-scale temperature trends and the medieval multi-decadal cooling recorded in Central Europe and the Mediterranean, are not well captured in state-of-the-art climate model simulations.     

Recent southern Indian Ocean climate variability inferred from a Law Dome ice core: new insights for the interpretation of coastal Antarctic isotopic records

Stable isotopes in water have been measured along a very high accumulation ice core from Law Dome on the east Antarctic coast. These enable a detailed comparison of the isotopic records over sixty years (1934–1992) with local (Antarctic station data) and remote meteorological observations (atmospheric reanalyses and sea-surface temperature estimates) on a seasonal to inter-annual time scale. Using both observations and isotopic atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) results, we quantify the relationships between stable isotopes (d ¹⁸O, dD and deuterium excess; d = dD –8 × d ¹⁸O) with site and source temperature at seasonal and decadal time scales, showing the large imprint of source conditions on Law Dome isotopes. These calibrations provide new insights for the quantitative interpretation of temporal isotopic fluctuations from coastal Antarctic ice cores. An abrupt change in the local meridional atmospheric circulation is clearly identified from Law Dome deuterium excess during the 1970s and analysed using GCM simulations.     

Variations in vapor pressure and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index since AD 1861 over the western Himalaya in India: inference from tree ring-width records

A regional tree ring-width index chronology prepared from various tree core samples of the western Himalaya has been analyzed in relation to climate fluctuations. The correlation analysis of tree ring chronology shows significant positive correlations with regional rainfall and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and negative correlations with temperature and vapor pressure (VP) during the spring season. The correlation coefficients (CCs) of tree ring-width index chronology with rainfall, temperature, SPEI, and VP during 1901–1990 are 0.50, −0.49, 0.65, and −0.51, respectively. All CCs are significant at 0.1% level. The highly significant CCs between tree ring-width index chronology and SPEI indicate that tree growth over the western Himalaya is more sensitive to soil moisture availability than rainfall, whereas the rising VP is found to have a significant moisture stress condition to tree growth by accelerating the evapotranspiration, which is not conducive for the development of tree growth in the region. So, based on the strong association between tree ring-width index chronology and SPEI; the reconstructions of SPEI and VP are developed back to AD 1861, that show the long period of dryness during 1936–1963.     

A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future climate change

Reconstructions of past climate are important for providing a historical context for evaluating the nature of 20th century climate change. Here, a number of percentile-based palaeoclimate reconstructions were used to isolate signals of both phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A total of 92 (82) El Niño (La Niña) events were reconstructed since A.D. 1525. Significantly, we introduce the most comprehensive La Niña event record compiled to date. This annual record of ENSO events can now be used for independent verification of climate model simulations, reconstructions of ENSO indices and as a chronological control for archaeologists/social scientists interested in human responses to past climate events. Although extreme ENSO events are seen throughout the 478-year ENSO reconstruction, approximately 43% of extreme and 28% of all protracted ENSO events (i.e. both El Niño and La Niña phase) occur in the 20th century. The post-1940 period alone accounts for 30% of extreme ENSO years observed since A.D. 1525. These results suggest that ENSO may operate differently under natural (pre-industrial) and anthropogenic background states. As evidence of stresses on water supply, agriculture and natural ecosystems caused by climate change strengthens, studies into how ENSO will operate under global warming should be a global research priority.     

A preliminary study on the climatic change of the hengduan mountains area since 1600 A.D.

Based on twelve tree-ring chronologies, two curves including the fluctuations of air temperature and the annual precipitation during last hundreds of years in the Hengduan Mountains area are drawn. Some significant cold/warm and dry/wet periods could be identified. A combined analysis between dendrochronologies and historical literature data of five classes helps us understand successive variations of each climatic pattern since 1600 A.D. In addition, the periodicities of some climatic features in the area have been studied in this paper.     

Reconstruction of annual winter rainfall since A.D.1579 in central-eastern Spain based on calcite laminated sediment from Lake La Cruz

We present the first winter (December to March) rainfall reconstruction based in a novel proxy, the thickness of annual calcite laminations preserved in Lake La Cruz (central–eastern Spain). A previous calibration analysis between laminae thickness and the instrumental data series (1950 to present) indicated a highly significant correlation with winter rainfall. Therefore this study attempts the winter rainfall reconstruction since the onset of laminations (1579 a.d.) by means of the calibration function previously developed. The verification analysis between inferred annual values and earlier instrumental data (1859–1949) confirms the suitability of this novel proxy and the reliability of the series reconstructed. The reconstructed series show the fluctuating character of winter rainfall in the western Mediterranean area; interdecadal dry periods alternated with wetter periods following, in a board sense, the pattern recorded by documentary sources in other regions of the Iberian Peninsula. At present times regional winter rainfall anomalies are highly correlated with the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However the time series analysis showed the dominance of nonstationary components at high frequencies of the climate signal over the last four centuries suggesting that the connection between winter rainfall and the NAO has not been stable over time and also other modes of variability, not only NAO, may have conditioned winter rainfall variability.     

An assessment of the possible effects of volcanic eruptions on North American climate using tree-ring data, 1602 to 1900 A.D.

Seasonal and annual temperature reconstructions derived from western North American semi-arid site tree-ring chronologies are used to examine the possible spatial response of North American climate to volcanic eruptions within the period 1602 to 1900. Low-latitude eruptions appear to give the strongest response. Cooling of the annual average temperatures in the central and eastern United States is reconstructed to follow volcanic eruptions with warming in the western states. The magnitude and spatial extent of the reconstructed cooling and warming varies seasonally. The warming that occurs in the west is strongest and most extensive in winter while the cooling in the east is most marked in summer. These results are based on reconstructed climate records which contain error terms unrelated to climatic factors. The suggested pattern of response to volcanic forcing is, however, supported by four independent temperature/proxy temperature series within the area of the temperature reconstructions. Additional support is provided by three independent series lying outside the area which suggest that the temperature spatial response may extend to the north beyond the area covered by the tree-ring reconstructions.     

Unprecedented low twentieth century winter sea ice extent in the Western Nordic Seas since A.D. 1200

We reconstructed decadal to centennial variability of maximum sea ice extent in the Western Nordic Seas for A.D. 1200–1997 using a combination of a regional tree-ring chronology from the timberline area in Fennoscandia and δ¹⁸O from the Lomonosovfonna ice core in Svalbard. The reconstruction successfully explained 59% of the variance in sea ice extent based on the calibration period 1864–1997. The significance of the reconstruction statistics (reduction of error, coefficient of efficiency) is computed for the first time against a realistic noise background. The twentieth century sustained the lowest sea ice extent values since A.D. 1200: low sea ice extent also occurred before (mid-seventeenth and mid-eighteenth centuries, early fifteenth and late thirteenth centuries), but these periods were in no case as persistent as in the twentieth century. Largest sea ice extent values occurred from the seventeenth to the nineteenth centuries, during the Little Ice Age (LIA), with relatively smaller sea ice-covered area during the sixteenth century. Moderate sea ice extent occurred during thirteenth–fifteenth centuries. Reconstructed sea ice extent variability is dominated by decadal oscillations, frequently associated with decadal components of the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO), and multi-decadal lower frequency oscillations operating at ~50–120 year. Sea ice extent and NAO showed a non-stationary relationship during the observational period. The present low sea ice extent is unique over the last 800 years, and results from a decline started in late-nineteenth century after the LIA.     

A note on the frequency of occurrence of severe winters as evidenced in monastery and historical records from Greece during the period 1200–1900 A.D.

Summary Monastery and historical records for Greece during the period 1200–1900 A.D. have been used to obtain the number of severe winters which occurred during this time period. A winter was considered as being severe if long duration of snow cover and/or freezing of lakes in Greece were archived. Evidence is presented that the coldest periods in Greece during the period 1200–1900 A.D. occurred in the first half of the 15th century, in the second half of the 17th and in the 19th century. Geographical coherence is indicated with other areas in Europe, e.g., with The Netherlands, where historical records exist over the same period. The number of severe winters in 50-year intervals does show a positive correlation with the volcanic dust veil index.

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Zusammenfassung Kloster- und andere historische Aufzeichnungen Griechenlands über den Zeitraum 1200 – 1900 wurden herangezogen, um die Anzahl der strengen Winter zu ermitteln. Ein Winter wurde als streng eingestuft, wenn lang anhaltende Schneedecke und/oder das Einfrieren von Seen in Griechenland verzeichnet wurden.Deutlich erweisen sich hierbei die erste Hälfte des 15. Jahrhunderts, die zweite Hälfte des 17. Jahrhunderts und das 19. Jahrhundert als kälteste Perioden in Griechenland während des genannten Zeitraums. Dies erwies sich als geographisch kohärent mit anderen Teilen Europas, z. B. mit den Niederlanden, für die historische Aufzeichnungen über den selben Zeitraum existieren. Die Anzahl der strengen Winter in 50-Jahr-Intervallen weist eine positive Korrelation mit dem Vulkanstaub-Index auf.

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With 3 Figures     

Reconstruction of seasonal temperatures in Central Canada since A.D. 1700 and detection of the 18.6- and 22-year signals

This paper presents an attempt to summarize various sparse proxy series into continuous and exhaustive climatic data. Freeze-up and break-up dates, early meteorological records and tree-ring data have been combined for the Hudson Bay region and 22 continuous proxy series extending from 1700 to 1979 have been deduced. These new series in term provided the basis for a regressive reconstruction of six seasonal temperature series. Verification tests are successful mainly for the high frequencies components. The low frequencies variability is better estimated by a best analogues method. Both kinds of reconstructions have been combined to improve the results. The main characteristic of the reconstructions is a warming trend beginning at the end of the 19th century. Evidence for a beat wave resulting from 22-year solar and 18.6-year lunar nodal tidal cycles is presented. A phase analysis showed results consistent with other studies of summer temperature variability: temperature maxima correspond to sunspot minima ending an even cycle and are emphasized by the lunar maxima. Different phenomena are pointed out for autumn and winter temperatures: their maxima coincide to sunspot even maxima amplified by lunar minima. In spring, the transition season, these signals are not apparent.     

Freezing of the Venetian Lagoon since the 9th century A.D. in comparision to the climate of western Europe and England

In the first part of this study, typical of historical climatology, the various sources regarding freezing of the Venetian Lagoon since the 9th century A.D., are reported and discussed. The events are related, where possible, to teleconnections. Two synoptic patterns (weather type A: northerly and D: easterly) seem to have played an important role. After having discussed the dynamics of the icing processes, the problem of comparing the data is considered, as over the centuries many works were made on the Lagoon, in order to divert the major tributaries. In fact, the hydrological regime and the physical characteristic of the Lagoon environment were changed, so that the conditions necessary for freezing were no longer the same. The series was compared with the severe winters in westtern Europe and England, in order to reconstruct the past climate of the Mediterranean region and discuss the observed secular changes in the light of the widely accepted ideas of climatic variations. The comparison shows some differences: e.g. at Venice the Medieval Climatic Optimum with the occurrence of severe winters ended earlier and the Little Ice Age was broken by a milder interval.     

An attempt to reconstruct the rainfall regime of andalusia (southern Spain) from 1601 A.D. to 1650 A.D. using historical documents

This study attempts to reconstruct the rainfall conditions of southern Spain from 1600 A.D. to 1650 A.D. during the so-called Little Ice Age. Weather information was taken from original documentary sources (urban annals, local and religious histories, municipal documents, letters) in two cities in the region, Seville and Granada. A numerical index was established to characterize the rainfall, its conditions, evolution and geographical distribution. Results were compared with modern precipitation data and with the results of other studies on historical climate.     

Analysis of the sea surges at Venice from A.D. 782 to 1990

Summary After an accurate search for old documents in Italian archives, the series of the sea surges has been reconstructed for a period of 12 centuries. In addition to written documents, other sources have also been investigated, e.g. the identification marks made by the Venetian Republic at the mean level of the high tides and accurate drawings made in the 18th century by the painterCanaletto with the help of a portable camera obscura. The sea surges at Venice are due to several forcing factors: a low pressure passing over the Mediterranean and generating a Sirocco wind; the barometric effect associated with a gradient of atmospheric pressure over the sea waters; free oscillations in the Adriatic sea; solar and lunar influences; subsidence of the soil. Except for a period which culminated in 1424–1442, when the moon was in perigee and the earth in perihelion, in general the meteorological factors largely dominate over the astronomical ones: the seasonal distribution shows a narrow peak in November–December and the series is important to show the frequency of the anomalies in the atmospheric circulations which determined meridional winds over the Adriatic sea. The analysis of the data shows clearly the 18.6 yr lunar nutation influence and a continuous rise of the sea level despite the cooling of the Little Ice Age. The most perturbed period were respectively: 1914–today, due to anthropogenic factors, i.e. excavating of new canals and underground water pumping; 1500–1550, during the Spörer Minimum of solar activity; 1720–1830; 1250–1350, which was also a stormy period in the North Sea. No apparent links with the Maunder Minimum of solar activity were found.With 7 Figures     

The past climate and sea-ice record from Iceland,Part 1: Data to A.D. 1780

A new reconstruction of the climate and sea-ice record for Iceland from medieval times to A.D. 1780 is presented, based on all available documentary sources. The importance of careful historical analysis to separate reliable from unreliable material is stressed, and these reconstructions are the first to have been produced using only reliable data. The major previous works on the subject (those of Thoroddsen, Koch, and Bergþórsson), which all include unreliable material, are discussed. Prior to A.D. 1600 the data are not considered to be full enough to permit a quantitative interpretation. For the period A.D. 1601 to 1780 decadal temperature and sea-ice indices are given.Although there is very little evidence for the first few centuries of settlement in Iceland (from c. 870 to c. 1170) the data suggest a fairly mild climatic period. Cold periods occurred around 1200, and at the end of the thirteenth century. The fourteenth century was very variable with a cold period in the 1350s to c. 1380. Between 1430 and c. 1560 there are very few contemporary sources and it is difficult to draw any conclusions on the climate during this time. The latter part of the sixteenth century was undoubtedly cold. From 1601 there are sufficient data to permit a decade by decade analysis. This shows a mild period between 1640 and 1670, and severe decades in the 1630s, 1690s, 1740s, and 1750s. Year to year and decade to decade variability is appreciable. The correlation between temperature and sea ice is not perfect but is still quite strong (similar to today). Because data have been gathered from different regions of Iceland it has been possible to demonstrate the spatial variability of Iceland's climate during the period 1601 to 1780. For example, during 1660 to 1700 there was a cooling in the north and west but warming in the south. The 1690s, the coldest decade of the Little Ice Age in Europe, was extremely cold in the west of Iceland, but less severe elsewhere.

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Oceanographic Change and Terrestrial Human Impacts in a Post A.D. 1400 Sediment Record from the Southwest Iceland Shelf

Environmental proxies of soil erosion on Iceland, and oceanographic conditions on the adjacent shelf, were measured on a 50 cm box core taken from the southwest Iceland shelf in 1993 during cruise 93030 of the Canadian ship, CSS Hudson. These data, covering the last several centuries, are compared with the documentary record of sea-ice changes around Iceland since A.D. 1600. The site is under the influence of the Irminger Current, which carries warm, saline, Atlantic water northward along the shelf. Because of the relative warmth of this current, sea ice rarely occurs off southwest Iceland, even during the most severe sea-ice intervals of the historical record. In severe sea-ice years, however, the ice drifts clockwise around Iceland from the northeast and east and, in rare cases, reaches the southern coasts (Ogilvie, 1992). The chronology of the core was established by converting the basal radiocarbon date to calendar years and assuming a linear sedimentation rate from the base of the core to the year of collection, 1993. Organic carbon, stable C and O isotope ratios, planktonic foraminiferal assemblages, and sediment magnetic parameters were measured on samples from the core, plotted against calendar years and compared to the Icelandic sea-ice index. The environmental proxies suggest that increased soil erosion, reduced salinity, and, possibly, decreased marine productivity prevailed during the severe sea-ice interval lasting from the last quarter of the eighteenth century to around 1920. Such a situation could develop with climatic cooling, increased storminess, and loss of vegetation cover to stabilise the soil. Although the core site generally lies outside the sea-ice limits, the evidence clearly shows the influence of sea ice and fresh water, and is sensitive to the overall climatic deterioration manifested by the sea-ice record.