千岛湖流域不同土地利用方式对氮和磷流失的影响

从流域尺度研究氮、磷随地表径流的流失是国内外研究的热点.通过研究千岛湖流域降雨径流中总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、可溶氮(DN)和可溶磷(DP)浓度变化,探讨不同土地利用方式对氮素、磷素流失的影响,结果表明不同土地利用方式下日降雨量与径流水中的总氮、可溶氮、总磷和可溶磷浓度均呈显著正相关;不同土地利用方式下土壤中降雨径流中总氮和总磷浓度变异较大.红薯地和园地等有人工耕种的坡地氮磷流失浓度最大,草地和林地等受人工影响干扰少的土地利用方式氮磷流失浓度相对较少.高坡林地降雨径流中氮磷流失浓度大于缓坡林地,平均DN/TN值和DP/TP值变化较小,分别为0.45和0.22左右.     

江苏残坡积土质滑坡预警模型和判据研究

以江苏省典型的雪浪山残坡积土质滑坡为例,根据5个单次降雨过程中滑坡体土壤含水率动态确定了前期降雨影响的时间跨度为10 d和每日的有效降雨系数,在此基础上对传统的有效降雨量模型进行了修正.通过对38个残坡积土质滑坡实例的有效降雨量频次统计确定了3～5级滑坡预警的临界有效降雨量分别为50 mm、80 mm和170 mm,研...     

岩溶泉域降雨径流水文过程的模拟——以重庆金佛山水房泉为例

通过地貌、水文地质、土壤、植被、地下洞穴管道等实地调查,以及示踪试验确定水房泉泉域范围和地下水文系统特征,并通过代表性点的土壤入渗试验、降雨和流量监测以及DEM数据等获得泉域水文模型所需的面积、结点高程、入渗率、糙率、管道长度、含水层孔隙度、出流系数等参数。选择SCS径流曲线模型估算地表产流,利用SWMM模型模拟泉域对场降雨的径流响应过程。通过运行模型,与实测流量比较,结果显示模拟曲线与观测流量曲线吻合较好,用于校正和验证的两场降雨产流的模拟误差分别为9.5%和12%,表明SWMM可应用于岩溶区以管道流为主要排水系统的含水介质的模拟。     

降雨型滑坡失稳概率计算方法

为了解决滑坡风险评价中的滑坡失稳概率计算问题,利用前人在降雨阈值的研究成果,结合气象学中降雨概率分布理论,以云南省盐津县庙坝滑坡为例进行计算,建立降雨型滑坡失稳概率计算模型。结果表明,盐津县降雨型滑坡的降雨阈值类型为累积降雨量-历时关系阈值,即为单日降雨阈值,降雨阈值为29.7 mm;盐津县在当日降雨量达到或超过阈值水平时可能诱发滑坡,对滑坡影响的滞后天数最大为5天;庙坝滑坡在8月20—25日6天内单日降雨达到或超过29.7 mm的降雨概率为46.49%;庙坝滑坡在8月25日因前5天或当天单日降雨量超过29.7 mm而失稳的概率为0.2853%。     

基于降雨洪峰关系曲线的沿河村落预警指标确定

预警指标对流域的山洪预警有着重要的作用。主要以荣成市崂山小流域崂山大疃为例,提出了确定雨量预警指标的方法。根据不同的土壤干湿程度,基于降雨径流曲线获得降雨径流关系,采用推理公式法计算设计洪水,绘制降雨洪峰曲线;根据崂山大疃现场调查,基于曼宁公式获取水位流量关系曲线,结合成灾水位推算临界流量,根据降雨洪峰曲线,由流量反推降雨。计算结果:在Pa=40 mm的情况下,崂山大疃的3个时段的临界雨量为62 mm,75 mm,95 mm,经过"折减"处理获得的3个时段预警指标,准备转移指标为56,68,86mm,立即转移指标为68,83,105 mm。     

无资料地区小流域设计径流若干技术问题

从研究小流域水文特性及其影响因素入手,提出了在同一气候区内,应用小流域高度分布曲线与年降雨是随高度呈线性变化关系,来确定小流域面平均年降雨量,并应用年降雨径流关系分解小流域不闭合的河床地下水潜流量,以提高无资料地区小流域设计径流的技术水平。     

中国日降雨空间变化对雨水径流源头总量控制的影响

为研究中国不同区域的降雨特征对径流总量控制效果的影响,利用186个气象站近30年的日降雨量资料,通过空间分析与统计计算,得到不同年径流总量控制率所对应的设计降雨量以及年均控制降雨量;结合年径流总量控制率与年均控制降雨量的关系将中国区域分为9种类型。结果表明:中国设计降雨量地域变化明显,广东、四川、广西、河北和河南等省的标准差为全国平均水平的1.5~3倍,且随年径流总量控制率的提升而增加,源头径流控制效果差异明显;南部地区径流控制效果多为"高量低率";"低量低率"区位于甘肃、宁夏等地,面积占比为9.44%,其降雨特征不适合发挥源头控制设施的效果;而最适宜发挥源头控制作用的"高量高率"区位于西南部分地区,面积占比为3.80%。     

开都河流域山区径流模拟及降雨输入的不确定性分析

选取塔里木河源区的开都河流域为研究区,将流域内气象水文站点数据与遥感数据相结合,利用气象、土壤类型、土地利用和地表覆盖、数字高程(DEM)和降雨等资料,模拟流域水文过程,并在出山口实测径流数据的基础上对模型进行率定和验证;对降雨输入所带来的径流模拟不确定性进行分析,探讨降雨输入的空间异质性对水文预报结果的影响机制.结果表明:MIKE-SHE模型能在水文、气象站点稀少,土壤及水文地质数据缺乏的条件下,模拟开都河流域的日径流过程,但精度上仍有待提高;降雨输入的空间分布程度对径流模拟有重要影响.FY-2C遥感估算降雨资料能够更好地表达降雨时间的空间异质性,相应地对径流模拟精度也有一定程度的提高.     

分布式降雨径流物理模型的建立和应用

根据流域降雨径流的主要过程,考虑流域气象及下垫面要素的空间异质性,建立了具有物理基础的分布式降雨径流模型。模型将流域离散为栅格计算单元,并按水流特性分栅格单元为坡面单元和河网单元。在坡面单元上主要计算降雨、下渗、坡面流、壤中流等水文过程,而河网单元则主要计算河道汇流过程。模型利用空间权重插值方法将雨量站点的降雨量插值到各个计算单元,采用运动波方程来计算坡面流,将壤中流概化为垂向流和侧向流,分别用Green-Ampt公式和运动波方程来模拟,河道汇流也采用运动波方程。模型结构简单、参数的物理意义明确,大多数参数可利用DEM、土壤类型图、植被类型图直接获取,少数敏感参数通过率定确定。模型在浙江省甬江上游黄土岭流域和皎口流域进行了应用和检验,其结果令人满意。     

廊坊市城区集雨量计算方法探讨

随着国民经济的发展,人类越来越向城市集中,致使城市规模越来越大,城市不透水面积不断扩大,形成了城市的特殊气候、水文和地面条件,改变了城市自然环境,对城市降雨径流产生了很大影响。根据廊坊市城区现状,采用了新的计算方法,对廊坊市城区降雨径流关系进行了分析计算,通过验证,该计算方法推算的城区排水量比较准确,该方法可应用于城市防洪及城市排水计算。     

考虑前期降雨过程的边坡稳定性分析

基于三峡库区实测降雨资料,研究了不同初始条件对不同土体边坡稳定性影响,建议了能够反映边坡含水状态的初始条件选取方法。在此基础上,采用非饱和渗流分析方法研究了前期降雨对不同土体边坡稳定性影响,以典型的砂土和黏土边坡为例初步探索了前期降雨对边坡稳定性影响规律。结果表明：初始条件对不同土体边坡稳定性影响不同;建议将多年平均降雨量对应的稳态渗流场作为初始条件进行非饱和渗流分析。边坡土体渗透系数越低,边坡稳定性受前期降雨的影响越大、影响时间也越长。砂土和黏土边坡稳定性分析时建议至少考虑15 d以上的前期降雨,对于砂土边坡还应根据这15 d前面5 d的降雨情况确定是否需要增加计算天数。短历时高强度前期降雨对砂土边坡稳定性影响更大,而长历时低强度前期降雨对黏土边坡稳定性影响更大。累积前期降雨量可以作为判断边坡最小安全系数出现时刻的依据。砂土边坡出现最小安全系数时刻与10 d累积前期降雨量最大的时刻较为吻合,而黏土边坡则与15 d累积前期降雨量最大的时刻较为吻合。     

城市降水径流的污染来源与排放特征研究进展

综述了城市地表径流污染的成因、来源和排放特征的研究.城市降水径流污染来自3个方面:降水、城市地表和排水系统.其中,城市地表和排水系统是城市降水径流污染的主要来源.在具合流制排水系统的城市,20%~60%的径流污染(SS、COD和BOD₅)来自排水系统.在一次降雨过程中,城市降雨径流污染的排放一般存在初期冲刷效应,径流中污染物浓度的峰值一般提前于径流的峰值.但是由于影响初期冲刷效应的因素多而随机,使得初期冲刷出现的频率和程度存在明显的差异,而且很难建立初期冲刷与降雨特征和流域特征的通用关系.     

Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak discharges

Flood frequency approaches vary from statistical methods, directly applied on the observed annual maximum flood series, to adopting rainfall–runoff simulation models that transform design rainfalls to flood discharges. Reliance on statistical flood frequency analysis depends on several factors such as the selected probability distribution function, estimation of the function parameters, possible outliers, and length of the observed flood series. Through adopting the simulation approach in this paper, watershed-average rainfalls of various occurrence probabilities were transformed into the corresponding peak discharges using a calibrated hydrological model. A Monte Carlo scheme was employed to consider the uncertainties involved in rainfall spatial patterns and antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). For any given rainfall depth, realizations of rainfall spatial distribution and AMC conditions were entered as inputs to the model. Then, floods of different return periods were simulated by transforming rainfall to runoff. The approach was applied to Tangrah watershed in northeastern Iran. It was deduced that the spatial rainfall distribution and the AMCs exerted a varying influence on the peak discharge of different return periods. Comparing the results of the simulation approach with those of the statistical frequency analysis revealed that, for a given return period, flood quantiles based on the observed series were greater than the corresponding simulated discharges. It is also worthy to note that existence of outliers and the selection of the statistical distribution function has a major effect in increasing the differences between the results of the two approaches.     

A simple model for preliminary evaluation of rainfall-induced slope instability

Slope failures in the tropical regions, particularly Malaysia are commonly triggered by frequent rainfall. The tropical rainfall can be characterized as short and intense throughout the year, and prolonged and less intense during monsoon seasons. Under such circumstances, various rainfall patterns should be included in the analysis of rainfall-induced slope failure in the tropical regions. This paper is aimed to demonstrate a simple model for preliminary evaluation of rainfall-induced slope failure. The critical rainfall patterns for four typical types of soil were first determined. Seepage finite element analyses were conducted using the extreme rainfall of ten-year return period for Johor Bahru, Malaysia. The results showed that the ratio of rainfall intensity to soil saturated permeability (i.e., I/k_sat) plays an important role in determining the critical rainfall pattern. Two critical combinations of antecedent rainfall and major rainfall, 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 5-day, 7-day, 14-day, and 30-day antecedent rainfalls and the redistribution of the critical combination of antecedent rainfall and 1-day major rainfall were responsible for the formation of suction envelope in soil. The suction envelope, representing the worst suction distribution in soil, was used for the computation of factor of safety of soil slope through the modified infinite-slope–limit-equilibrium method. A model, PERISI, was developed based on the findings from numerical simulation. The suction envelope and factor of safety computed from the PERISI model showed good agreements with the results obtained from Seep/W and Slope/W computer programs and the results derived from the model of Rahardjo et al. developed in 1995.     

前期土壤含水量对红壤坡面产流产沙特性的影响

利用田间人工模拟降雨试验,研究了前期土壤含水量对两种红壤坡面降雨入渗、产流和产沙特性的影响.结果表明:前期含水量越高,两种土壤都是产流越快,达到稳定径流和入渗的时间越短.低含水量区(干态和稍干),两种土壤的径流系数和入渗率都与降雨时间呈线性关系,并在60 min内达不到稳定.高含水量区(稍湿和湿态),两种土壤的径流系数、入渗率及产沙速率与降雨时间关系都符合Boltzmann(玻耳兹曼)方程;第四纪红粘土发育的红壤稍干态和红砂岩发育的红壤干态下的产沙速率在整个降雨过程中变化不明显,并都维持在较低水平;第四纪红粘土发育的红壤干态和红砂岩发育的红壤稍干态下的产沙速率随着模拟降雨的进行而大致以线性关系增大.土壤前期含水量越高,两种土壤坡地累tk积入渗量都越小,雨水转化为土壤水分的比率亦越小.     

Deforestation effects on soil properties,runoff and erosion in northern Iran

Improper cultivation practices are seriously degrading native forest ecosystems in northern Iran. Hence, the objectives of this study are to compare selected soil properties, runoff amount, erosion and also introducing equations to predict the runoff and soil erosion in three types of land use (forest, garden and cultivated). A simple portable rainfall simulator has been set in 90 random points to create experimental rainfall. Result showed that changes in natural forest led to a significant clay, organic carbon of soil, total N and antecedent soil moisture decrease and sand, pH and bulk density increasing. The rainfall runoff experiments indicate that runoff content of the natural forest soils was 35 % and respectively 38.45 % higher than the garden and cultivated land soils .This result could be related to the higher antecedent soil moisture in natural forest compared with the other land uses. According to the obtained results, garden soil erosion and cultivated land was 1.351 and respectively 1.587 times higher than the forest. The correlation matrix revealed that runoff content was positively correlated with antecedent soil moisture, bulk density and silt, and negatively with soil organic carbon, total N and sand. Also, soil organic carbon, total N, clay and sand showed negative correlation with soil erosion, while there is a positive correlation between erosion and silt, bulk density, pH and antecedent soil moisture. The results of multiple linear regression showed that runoff in forest, garden and cultivated land can be predicted with correlation coefficient of 0.637, 0.547 and 0.624, respectively. The correlation coefficients of 0.798, 0.628 and 0.560 in equations indicate their moderate potential in simulating soil erosion.     

鄂西岩溶槽谷区洼地的水位响应特征及产流阈值估算

以湖北省兴山县黄粮镇刘家坝和龙湾两处岩溶洼地作为研究对象,利用其降雨、水文和土壤水等监测数据,探讨灌入式补给条件下洼地汇流的水位响应特征和产流特点,并基于降雨量和洼地内明渠流量的关系,采用数学拟合方程,估算两处洼地的降雨产流阈值,进而分析了影响产流阈值的因素。结果表明:降雨强度增大,产流阈值减小;土壤前期含水率越大,越有利于坡面产流;落水洞和岩溶泉水位与降雨有较好的同步响应关系,水位变化曲线随雨强大小分别表现出“陡升陡降”和“缓升缓降”的特点;刘家坝和龙湾洼地的产流阈值分别为7.4 mm和10.6 mm。      

基于改进型前馈神经网络的流域产流预报模型的研究

在分析流域产流机制、影响因素和现行产流计算方法的基础上,首次取前期影响雨量、主产流历时、全过程面平均雨量和４个代表雨强计７个因子作为神经网络输入,直接以流域产流深作为神经网络输出,并针对传统ＢＰ算法的固有缺陷,采用混合ＧＮ－ＢＦＧＳ算法训练网络。实例验证了所建模型及算法的有效性和可行性。还对神经网络隐层单位数等进行了初步研究。     

Spatial distribution,variation and trend of five-day antecedent rainfall in Singapore

ABSTRACT

This paper presents the spatial distribution, variation and trend of 5-day antecedent rainfall in Singapore based on rainfall data from 22 meteorological stations. The effect of climate was analyzed by dividing the study period into three decades i.e. Decade 1: 1982–1991, Decade 2: 1992–2001 and Decade 3: 2002–2011. Kriging interpolation was used for rainfall mapping. The results show that spatial distribution of 5-day antecedent rainfall does not coincide with that of the annual rainfall. The maximum annual rainfall occurred in the northwestern side of Singapore. On the other hand, the maximum 5-day antecedent rainfall occurred in the north and northeastern sides. The results of this study suggest that the climate change has increased the amount of 5-day antecedent rainfall quite significantly, i.e. from 420.5 (1987) to 592.9 mm (2006), thus affecting the vulnerability of the area with respect to rainfall-induced slope failure. The analyses also showed that most of slope failures were located in the north and northeast of Singapore between December and earlier March. More slope failures were observed in Decade 3 as compared to Decades 1 and 2. In other words, the analysis confirmed that 5-day antecedent rainfall had affected the slope stability in Singapore.     

Early warning system for shallow landslides using rainfall threshold and slope stability analysis

A combined cluster and regression analysis were performed for the first time to identify rainfall threshold that triggers landslide events in Amboori, Kerala, India. Amboori is a tropical area that is highly vulnerable to landslides. The 2, 3, and 5-day antecedent rainfall data versus daily rainfall was clustered to identify a cluster of critical events that could potentially trigger landslides. Further, the cluster of critical events was utilized for regression analysis to develop the threshold equations. The 5-day antecedent (x-variable) vs. daily rainfall (y-variable) provided the best fit to the data with a threshold equation of y = 80.7–0.1981x. The intercept of the equation indicates that if the 5-day antecedent rainfall is zero, the minimum daily rainfall needed to trigger the landslide in the Amboori region would be 80.7 mm. The negative coefficient of the antecedent rainfall indicates that when the cumulative antecedent rainfall increases, the amount of daily rainfall required to trigger monsoon landslide decreases. The coefficient value indicates that the contribution of the 5-day antecedent rainfall is ∼20% to the landslide trigger threshold. The slope stability analysis carried out for the area, using Probabilistic Infinite Slope Analysis Model (PISA-m), was utilized to identify the areas vulnerable to landslide in the region. The locations in the area where past landslides have occurred demonstrate lower Factors of Safety (FS) in the slope stability analysis. Thus, rainfall threshold analysis together with the FS values from slope stability can be suitable for developing a simple, cost-effective, and comprehensive early-warning system for shallow landslides in Amboori and similar regions.