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1.
In order to examine the changes in Walker circulation over the recent decades, we analyzed the sea surface temperature (SST), deep convective activities, upper tropospheric moistening, sea level pressure (SLP), and effective wind in the boundary layer over the 30-year period of 1979–2008. The analysis showed that the eastern tropical Pacific has undergone cooling while the western Pacific has undergone warming over the past three decades, causing an increase in the east–west SST gradient. It is indicated that the tropical atmosphere should have responded to these SST changes; increased deep convective activities and associated upper tropospheric moistening over the western Pacific ascending region, increased SLP over the eastern Pacific descending region in contrast to decreased SLP over the western Pacific ascending region, and enhanced easterly wind in the boundary layer in response to the SLP change. These variations, recognized from different data sets, occur in tandem with each other, strongly supporting the intensified Walker circulation over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Since the SST trend was attributed to more frequent occurrences of central Pacific-type El Niño in recent decades, it is suggested that the decadal variation of El Niño caused the intensified Walker circulation over the past 30 years. An analysis of current climate models shows that model results deviate greatly from the observed intensified Walker circulation. The uncertainties in the current climate models may be due to the natural variability dominating the forced signal over the tropical Pacific during the last three decades in the twentieth century climate scenario runs by CMIP3 CGCMs.  相似文献   

2.
By using a 2-layer AGCM designed by Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences.this paper investigates influences of thickness and extent variations in Arctic sea ice on the atmosphere circulation,particularly on climate variations in East Asia.The simulation results have indicated that sea ice thickness variation in the Arctic exhibits significant influences on simulation results,particularly on East Asian monsoon.A nearly reasonable distribution of sea ice thickness in the model leads directly to stronger winter and summer monsoon over East Asia.and improves the model's simulation results for Siberia high and Icelandic low in winter.On the other hand,sea ice thickness variation can excite a teleconnection wave train across Asian Continent,and in low latitudes,the wave propagates from the western Pacific across the equator to the eastern Pacific.In addition,the variation of sea ice thickness also influences summer convective activitiesover the low latitudes including South China Sea and around the Philippines.Effects of winter sea ice extents in the Barents Sea on atmospheric circulation in the following spring and summer are also significant.The simulation result shows that when winter sea ice extent in the target region is larger (smaller) than normal.(1)in the following spring (averaged from April to June).positive (negative) SLP anomalies occupy the northern central Pacific.which leads directly to weakened (deepened)Aleutian low.and further favors the light (heavy) sea ice condition in the Bering Sea:(2)in the following summer,thermal depression in Asian Continent is deepened (weakened).and the subtropical high in the northwestern Pacific shifts northward(southward) from its normal position and to be strengthened (weakened).  相似文献   

3.
Compared to the 50-year mean climatological value (1961–2010), the precipitation of middle-eastern Inner Mongolia exhibited a significant decrease during the past 10 years (2001–2010). To identify the climatic causes, a comprehensive investigation was conducted by inspecting climatic factors from this 50-year period, which appear to work together in connecting closely to the precipitation. Significant positive correlations with precipitation were found in sea level pressure (SLP) difference between the area of (30° N–20° S; 50–160° E) and the northeastern Pacific Ocean, between the Northern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific Oceans, and sea surface temperature difference between the northeastern and northwestern Pacific in the previous year, while negative connections were found in the 500-hPa temperature difference between the Antarctic and the belt region around 60° S. During the period of 2001–2010, East Asia was prevailingly controlled by a huge high, which was regarded as one of unfavorable factors for producing rain or snow. Other factors were the enlarged 500 hPa temperature differences between the Antarctic and the zones around 60° S and the Equator, the negative SLP difference between the East Asia, northern Atlantic, and Pacific Oceans. Finally, the unique wind flows and associated moisture transports also played a key role in the precipitation reduction for the first decade of the twenty-first century.  相似文献   

4.
By using a 2-layer AGCM designed by Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy ofSciences.this paper investigates influences of thickness and extent variations in Arctic sea ice onthe atmosphere circulation,particularly on climate variations in East Asia.The simulation resuhshave indicated that sea ice thickness variation in the Arctic exhibits significant influences onsimulation results,particularly on East Asian monsoon.A nearly reasonable distribution of sea icethickness in the model leads directly to stronger winter and summer monsoon over East Asia.andimproves the model's simulation results for Siberia high and Icelandic low in winter.On the otherhand,sea ice thickness variation can excite a teleconnection wave train across Asian Continent,andin low latitudes,the wave propagates from the western Pacific across the equator to the easternPacific.In addition,the variation of sea ice thickness also influences summer convective activitiesover the low latitudes including South China Sea and around the Philippines.Effects of winter sea ice extents in the Barents Sea on atmospheric circulation in the followingspring and summer are also significant.The simulation result shows that when winter sea iceextent in the target region is larger (smaller) than normal.(1)in the following spring (averagedfrom April to June).positive (negative) SLP anomalies occupy the northern central Pacific.whichleads directly to weakened (deepened)Aleutian low.and further favors the light (heavy) sea icecondition in the Bering Sea:(2)in the following summer,thermal depression in Asian Continent isdeepened (weakened).and the subtropical high in the northwestern Pacific shifts northward(southward) from its normal position and to be strengthened (weakened).  相似文献   

5.
The influence of changes in winds over the Amundsen Sea has been shown to be a potentially key mechanism in explaining rapid loss of ice from major glaciers in West Antarctica, which is having a significant impact on global sea level. Here, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model data are used to assess twenty-first century projections in westerly winds over the Amundsen Sea (U AS ). The importance of model uncertainty and internal climate variability in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario projections are quantified and potential sources of model uncertainty are considered. For the decade 2090–2099 the CMIP5 models show an ensemble mean twenty-first century response in annual mean U AS of 0.3 and 0.7 m s?1 following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. However, as a consequence of large internal climate variability over the Amundsen Sea, it takes until around 2030 (2065) for the RCP8.5 response to exceed one (two) standard deviation(s) of decadal internal variability. In all scenarios and seasons the model uncertainty is large. However the present-day climatological zonal wind bias over the whole South Pacific, which is important for tropical teleconnections, is strongly related to inter-model differences in projected change in U AS (more skilful models show larger U AS increases). This relationship is significant in winter (r = ?0.56) and spring (r = ?0.65), when the influence of the tropics on the Amundsen Sea region is known to be important. Horizontal grid spacing and present day sea ice extent are not significant sources of inter-model spread.  相似文献   

6.
进一步从资料分析和大气环流模式的敏感性试验, 对西北太平洋海温异常与亚太中高纬度地区冬季海平面气压异常经向偶极模的关系及影响进行了研究。资料分析表明, 对应冬季亚太地区海平面气压的经向(ME)型偶极模, 西北太平洋中高纬度海温异常的影响存在两个重要关键区。尤其是(40°N~55°N, 150°E~160°W)海区的海温异常与冬季东亚经向型气压偶极模指数IME有明显正相关, (20°N~35°N, 125°E~170°W)海区的海温异常与指数IME有明显负相关。而上述两个关键海区的SSTA对经向型振荡模的影响, 主要是通过热通量异常的作用。敏感性模拟试验清楚表明, 西北太平洋关键区的海温异常对亚洲—太平洋地区冬季海平面气压场的经向偶极模有一定影响。区域1(42°N~62°N, 145°E~165°W)的负异常相对于其自身的正异常来说, 对亚太地区海平面气压场的负经向偶极模贡献更大, 而区域2 [(22°N~42°N, 135°E~175°E)和(26°N~42°N, 175°E~170°W)]的正异常相对区域1的负异常来说对负经向偶极模的贡献更大一些。但是, 单独区域1的负异常海温和单独区域2的正异常海温影响下的海平面气压场响应的负经向偶极模都会有不同程度的位置偏移。当存在区域1的负异常海温和区域2的正异常海温相互匹配的情况下, 亚洲—太平洋地区冬季海平面气压场的负经向偶极模特征更为显著。  相似文献   

7.
The seasonal melt-freeze transitions are fundamental features of the Arctic climate system. The representation of the pan-Arctic melt and freeze onset (north of 60°N) is assessed in two reanalyses and eleven CMIP5 global circulation models (GCMs). The seasonal melt-freeze transitions are retrieved from surface air temperature (SAT) across the land and sea-ice domains and evaluated against surface observations. While monthly averages of SAT are reasonably well represented in models, large model-observation and model–model disparities of timing of melt and freeze onset are evident. The evaluation against surface observations reveals that the ERA-Interim reanalysis performs the best, closely followed by some of the climate models. GCMs and reanalyses capture the seasonal melt-freeze transitions better in the central Arctic than in the marginal seas and across the land areas. The GCMs project that during the 21st century, the summer length—the period between melt and freeze onset—will increase over land by about 1 month at all latitudes, and over sea ice by 1 and 3 months at low and high latitudes, respectively. This larger summer-length increase over sea ice at progressively higher latitudes is related to a retreat of summer sea ice during the 21st century, since open water freezes roughly 40 days later than ice-covered ocean. As a consequence, by the year 2100, the freeze onset is projected to be initiated within roughly 10 days across the whole Arctic Ocean, whereas this transition varies by about 80 days today.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

The seasonal cycle of the GLAS/U of Maryland GCM is analysed in terms of the behaviour of the monthly and seasonal mean fields and the structure of the annual harmonic. (The stationary and transient eddies are treated in a companion paper.)

Both polar regions at upper levels are much too cold in the annual mean, leading to excessive zonal winds above 200 mb. The problem is present in all seasons, but is most severe in local winter. A compensating belt of warm temperatures at lower latitudes is found. It is argued that the inclusion of gravity wave drag is not necessarily the solution to this problem.

The simulated annual harmonics of Northern Hemisphere sea‐level pressure and 200‐mb heights are realistically intense over the eastern continents and weak over the eastern oceans. Problems in the simulation include the anomalously deep Aleutian low and the low values of the height over Europe, both occurring in winter.

The simulation of the annual harmonic in sea‐level pressure and 200‐mb heights in the Southern Hemisphere is realistic. The GCM fails to show the observed amplitude of the annual harmonic in 200‐mb temperature over Antarctica.

The GCM precipitation is too intense over land, particularly in summer. It is suggested that the problem is related to the parametrizations of moist convection and the boundary layer. The seasonal patterns of precipitation over the western tropical Pacific are generally realistic.

There is no evidence that the GCM systematically underestimates momentum flux convergence.  相似文献   

9.
The sea level pressure (SLP) variability in 30–60 day intraseasonal timescales is investigated using 25 years of reanalysis data addressing two issues. The first concerns the non-zero zonal mean component of SLP near the equator and its meridional connections, and the second concerns the fast eastward propagation (EP) speed of SLP compared to that of zonal wind. It is shown that the entire globe resonates with high amplitude wave activity during some periods which may last for few to several months, followed by lull periods of varying duration. SLP variations in the tropical belt are highly coherent from 25°S to 25°N, uncorrelated with variations in mid latitudes and again significantly correlated but with opposite phase around 60°S and 65°N. Near the equator (8°S–8°N), the zonal mean contributes significantly to the total variance in SLP, and after its removal, SLP shows a dominant zonal wavenumber one structure having a periodicity of 40 days and EP speeds comparable to that of zonal winds in the Indian Ocean. SLP from many of the atmospheric and coupled general circulation models show similar behaviour in the meridional direction although their propagation characteristics in the tropical belt differ widely.  相似文献   

10.
ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5   总被引:4,自引:2,他引:2  
We analyse the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) to simulate the tropical Pacific mean state and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CMIP5 multi-model ensemble displays an encouraging 30 % reduction of the pervasive cold bias in the western Pacific, but no quantum leap in ENSO performance compared to CMIP3. CMIP3 and CMIP5 can thus be considered as one large ensemble (CMIP3 + CMIP5) for multi-model ENSO analysis. The too large diversity in CMIP3 ENSO amplitude is however reduced by a factor of two in CMIP5 and the ENSO life cycle (location of surface temperature anomalies, seasonal phase locking) is modestly improved. Other fundamental ENSO characteristics such as central Pacific precipitation anomalies however remain poorly represented. The sea surface temperature (SST)-latent heat flux feedback is slightly improved in the CMIP5 ensemble but the wind-SST feedback is still underestimated by 20–50 % and the shortwave-SST feedbacks remain underestimated by a factor of two. The improvement in ENSO amplitudes might therefore result from error compensations. The ability of CMIP models to simulate the SST-shortwave feedback, a major source of erroneous ENSO in CGCMs, is further detailed. In observations, this feedback is strongly nonlinear because the real atmosphere switches from subsident (positive feedback) to convective (negative feedback) regimes under the effect of seasonal and interannual variations. Only one-third of CMIP3 + CMIP5 models reproduce this regime shift, with the other models remaining locked in one of the two regimes. The modelled shortwave feedback nonlinearity increases with ENSO amplitude and the amplitude of this feedback in the spring strongly relates with the models ability to simulate ENSO phase locking. In a final stage, a subset of metrics is proposed in order to synthesize the ability of each CMIP3 and CMIP5 models to simulate ENSO main characteristics and key atmospheric feedbacks.  相似文献   

11.
Future climate in the Pacific Northwest   总被引:4,自引:2,他引:2  
Climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on the whole reproduce the observed seasonal cycle and twentieth century warming trend of 0.8°C (1.5°F) in the Pacific Northwest, and point to much greater warming for the next century. These models project increases in annual temperature of, on average, 1.1°C (2.0°F) by the 2020s, 1.8°C (3.2°F) by the 2040s, and 3.0°C (5.3°F) by the 2080s, compared with the average from 1970 to 1999, averaged across all climate models. Rates of warming range from 0.1°C to 0.6°C (0.2°F to 1.0°F) per decade. Projected changes in annual precipitation, averaged over all models, are small (+1% to +2%), but some models project an enhanced seasonal cycle with changes toward wetter autumns and winters and drier summers. Changes in nearshore sea surface temperatures, though smaller than on land, are likely to substantially exceed interannual variability, but coastal upwelling changes little. Rates of twenty-first century sea level rise will depend on poorly known factors like ice sheet instability in Greenland and Antarctica, and could be as low as twentieth century values (20 cm, 8) or as large as 1.3 m (50).  相似文献   

12.
CMIP3气候模式对东亚冬季大气环流模拟能力的评估   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
利用1960—1999年ECMWF月平均再分析资料(ERA40)和耦合模式比较计划(Phase 3 of the CoupledModel Intercomparison Project,简称CMIP3)21个气候耦合模式对20世纪气候模拟试验的模式结果,从气候态和年际变化两个方面,评估了CMIP3气候模式对东亚冬季大气环流的模拟能力。结果表明:(1)模式对东亚地区冬季海平面气压、850 hPa纬向风、经向风和500 hPa高度场气候态的模拟存在不同程度的偏差,但均能较好模拟出上述要素气候态的空间分布特征。总体而言,模式对500 hPa高度场气候态的模拟效果最好,而对850 hPa经向风的模拟效果较差。(2)模式基本上能抓住近40年来东亚地区冬季500 hPa高度场的主要变化特征,但基本上不能模拟出冬季海平面气压、850 hPa纬向风和经向风的变化特征。此外,模式对阿留申低压、蒙古高压和东亚冬季风强度的变化特征几乎没有模拟能力。  相似文献   

13.
Occurrence of winter air temperature extremes in Central Spitsbergen   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
The occurrence of daily air temperature extremes in winter in Central Spitsbergen in the period 1975–2008 was analysed. The mean winter temperature was found to be increasing by approximately 1.65°C per decade. Negative extremes were becoming less frequent, decreasing at a rate of approximately 5 days per decade, whereas the frequency of positive extremes showed a small (2 days per decade) but insignificant positive trend. Furthermore, circulation patterns responsible for positive and negative temperature extremes were analysed. Composite maps of the sea level pressure (SLP) and 500-hPa geopotential heights (z500 hPa) means and anomalies were constructed for the days with positive and negative extremes. Circulation patterns causing extremely warm winter days are characterised by a cyclonic centre or a low pressure trough over the Fram Strait. Cyclones located west of Spitsbergen with a warm sector over the archipelago bring warm air masses from the southern quadrant. On extremely cold days, the cyclone centres are usually located over the Barents Sea. This SLP pattern implies airflow from the north and northeast that brings cold Arctic air to the North Atlantic. Another factor in the occurrence of the temperature extremes in Central Spitsbergen is the sea-ice cover. Negative temperature extremes usually occur together with a high concentration of sea ice, particularly in the middle and end of winter.  相似文献   

14.
With an increasing political focus on limiting global warming to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels it is vital to understand the consequences of these targets on key parts of the climate system. Here, we focus on changes in sea level and sea ice, comparing twenty-first century projections with increased greenhouse gas concentrations (using the mid-range IPCC A1B emissions scenario) with those under a mitigation scenario with large reductions in emissions (the E1 scenario). At the end of the twenty-first century, the global mean steric sea level rise is reduced by about a third in the mitigation scenario compared with the A1B scenario. Changes in surface air temperature are found to be poorly correlated with steric sea level changes. While the projected decreases in sea ice extent during the first half of the twenty-first century are independent of the season or scenario, especially in the Arctic, the seasonal cycle of sea ice extent is amplified. By the end of the century the Arctic becomes sea ice free in September in the A1B scenario in most models. In the mitigation scenario the ice does not disappear in the majority of models, but is reduced by 42 % of the present September extent. Results for Antarctic sea ice changes reveal large initial biases in the models and a significant correlation between projected changes and the initial extent. This latter result highlights the necessity for further refinements in Antarctic sea ice modelling for more reliable projections of future sea ice.  相似文献   

15.
冬季蒙古高压与北太平洋海温异常的年际尺度关系   总被引:7,自引:1,他引:6  
李崇银  王力群  顾薇 《大气科学》2011,35(2):193-200
蒙古高压和北太平洋海区的气压差被认为是造成东亚冬季风及其变化的重要原因,而过去有关的研究以其年代际时间尺度为多,本文的研究揭示了冬季蒙古高压和北太平洋海温异常(SSTA)在年际时间尺度上的相互关系.冬季蒙古高压的活动与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)之间在年际时间尺度上也存在明显的负相关,冬季的强(弱)蒙古冷高压活动往往对应...  相似文献   

16.
北极海冰的厚度和面积变化对大气环流影响的数值模拟   总被引:13,自引:2,他引:13  
文中利用中国科学院大气物理研究所设计的两层大气环流模式 ,模拟研究了北极海冰厚度和面积变化对大气环流的影响 ,尤其是对东亚区域气候变化的影响。模式中海冰厚度处理趋于合理分布 ,导致东亚冬、夏季风偏强 ,使冬季西伯利亚高压和冰岛低压的模拟结果更趋合理 ;另一方面 ,海冰厚度变化可以激发出跨越欧亚大陆的行星波传播 ,在低纬度地区 ,该行星波由西太平洋向东太平洋地区传播 ;海冰厚度变化对低纬度地区的对流活动也有影响。冬季北极巴伦支海海冰变化对后期大气环流也有显著的影响。数值模拟结果表明 :冬季巴伦支海海冰偏多 (少 )时 ,春季 (4~ 6月 )北太平洋中部海平面气压升高 (降低 ) ,阿留申低压减弱 (加深 ) ,有利于春季白令海海冰偏少 (多 ) ;而夏季 ,亚洲大陆热低压加深 (减弱 ) ,5 0 0 h Pa西太平洋副热带高压位置偏北 (南 )、强度偏强 (弱 ) ,东亚夏季风易偏强 (弱 )。  相似文献   

17.
Summary Seventeen years of sea level pressure (SLP), 200-hPa zonal wind and 500-hPa geopotential height data were used to investigate the boreal winter and summer interannual (IA) circulation patterns. The IA patterns for these variables and for their zonally asymmetric (ZA) part were determined by performing empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses on the SLP and on ZA SLP. The corresponding patterns for the other variables were obtained by correlating their time series with the amplitude time series of these EOF analyses. For both seasons, the SLP and ZA SLP show a zonal wavenumber one pattern extending from the tropics into the winter hemisphere extratropics, which is consistent with the circulation anomalies related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles. The zonal wavenumber one pattern observed for the boreal winter describes the SLP and ZA SLP variations related to the mature state of the El Niño and La Niña episodes, and that for the summer, the SLP and ZA SLP variations associated with the initial or decay stages of these phenomena. The 200-hPa zonal wind and 500-hPa geopotential height patterns exhibit strong seasonal dependence, and the ZA parts of these two variables show even more pronounced seasonal differences. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of the atmospheric circulation, in particular at the upper tropospheric levels, might play an important role in extending the IA wavetrain-like structure into the subtropics as noted for the 200-hPa zonal wind and its ZA part in the Pacific/Americas sector. This wavetrain-like structure shows its Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH) branches for the boreal winter, and only its SH branch, for the boreal summer. Thus, the effects of the seasonal cycle of the atmospheric circulation on the IA patterns seem to be stronger for the NH.With 9 Figures  相似文献   

18.
The ability of modern climate models to simulate ice season length in the Arctic, its recent changes and navigation season on Arctic marine routes along the Eurasian and the North American coastlines is evaluated using satellite ice cover observations for 1979–2007. Simulated mean sea ice season duration fits remarkably well to satellite observations and so do the simulated 20th century changes using historical forcing. This provides confidence to extend the analysis to projections for the twenty-first century. The navigation season for the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP), alternative sea routes from the North Atlantic to Asia, will considerably increase during this century. The models predict prolongation of the season with a free passage from 3 to 6 months for the NSR and from 2 to 4 months for the NWP by the end of twenty-first century according to A1B scenario of the IPCC. This suggests that transit through the NSR from Western Europe to the Far East may be up to 15% more profitable in comparison to Suez Canal transit by the end of the twenty-first century.  相似文献   

19.
The recent decline in Arctic sea-ice cover (SIC) shows seasonal and regional characteristics. The retreat of summer sea ice has occurred mainly in the Pacific sector of the Arctic. In this study, using the moving t-test, we found an abrupt change event in the long-term sea-ice area in the Pacific sector in summer 1989. This event was linked to the phase shift of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or the Northern Annular Mode (NAM). Corresponding with the AO/NAM phase shift from negative to positive, the area of the northern hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex decreased abruptly in winter 1988/89. Comparisons of two periods before (1979–1988) and after (1989–1993) the abrupt decrease in sea ice show that an anomalous winter sea level pressure (SLP) was induced by changes in the polar vortex leading to an anomalous cyclonic ice drift in the Pacific sector. The changes in SLP and wind field persisted into the following spring, resulting in a decrease in SIC and warming of the surface air temperature (SAT). The influence of the spring SLP and SAT on ice persisted into the following summer. Meanwhile, the increased summer net surface heat flux over the ocean and sea ice as a result of the decreased spring ice cover further contributed to the summer sea-ice melt.  相似文献   

20.
Local to regional climate anomalies are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. The knowledge of large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in former times is therefore crucial when addressing past climate changes across Europe and the Mediterranean. However, currently available SLP reconstructions lack data from the ocean, particularly in the pre-1850 period. Here we present a new statistically-derived 5° × 5° resolved gridded seasonal SLP dataset covering the eastern North Atlantic, Europe and the Mediterranean area (40°W–50°E; 20°N–70°N) back to 1750 using terrestrial instrumental pressure series and marine wind information from ship logbooks. For the period 1750–1850, the new SLP reconstruction provides a more accurate representation of the strength of the winter westerlies as well as the location and variability of the Azores High than currently available multiproxy pressure field reconstructions. These findings strongly support the potential of ship logbooks as an important source to determine past circulation variations especially for the pre-1850 period. This new dataset can be further used for dynamical studies relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean and Eurasia, for the comparison with outputs from GCMs as well as for detection and attribution studies.  相似文献   

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