AN SENSITIVITY SIMULATION ABOUT CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL PROCESSES OF TYPHOON CHANCHU

With the Reisner-2 bulk microphysical parameterization of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5), this paper investigates the microphysical sensitivities of Typhoon Chanchu. Four different microphysical sensitivity experiments were designed with an objective to evaluate their respective impacts in modulating intensity forecasts and microphysics budgets of the typhoon. The set of sensitivity experiments were conducted that comprised (a) a control experiment (CTL), (b) NEVPRW from which evaporation of rain water was suppressed, (c) NGP from which graupel was taken, and (d) NMLT from which melting of snow and graupel was removed. We studied the impacts of different cloud microphysical processes on the track, intensity and precipitation of the typhoon, as well as the kinematics, thermodynamics and vertical structural characteristics of hydrometeors in the inner core of the typhoon. Additionally, the budgets of the cloud microphysical processes in the fine domain were calculated to quantify the importance of each microphysical process for every sensitivity experiment. The primary results are as follows: (1) It is found that varying cloud microphysics parameters produce little sensitivity in typhoon track experiments. (2) The experiment of NGP produces the weakest storm, while the experiment of NMLT produces the strongest storm, and the experiment of NEVPRW also produces stronger storms than CTL. (3) Varying parameters of cloud microphysics have obvious impacts on the precipitation, kinematics, and thermodynamics of the typhoon and the vertical structural characteristics of hydrometeors in the typhoon’s inner core. (4) Most budgets of cloud microphysics in NMLT are larger than in CTL, while they are 20%–60% smaller in NEVPRW than in CTL.     

SENSITIVITY OF LANDFALLING TYPHOON STRUCTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO VARYING CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL PROCESSES

Typhoon KROSA in 2007 is simulated using GRAPES, a mesoscale numerical model, in which a two-parameter mixed-phase microphysics scheme is implanted. A series of numerical experiments are designed to test the sensitivity of landfalling typhoon structure and precipitation to varying cloud microphysics and latent heat release. It is found that typhoon track is sensitive to different microphysical processes and latent heat release. The cloud structures of simulated cyclones can be quite different with that of varying microphysical processes. Graupel particles play an important role in the formation of local heavy rainfall and the maintenance of spiral rainbands. Analysis reveals that the feedback of latent heat to dynamic fields can significantly change the content and distribution of cloud hydrometeors, thus having an impact on surface precipitation.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF LANDFALL TYPHOON KROSA

In this study,the super typhoon KROSA(2007)was simulated using a mesoscale numerical model Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)with a two-moment mixed-phase microphysics scheme.Local rainfall observations,radar and satellite data were also used to analyze the precipitation structure and microphysical features.It was shown that low-level jets and unstable temperature stratification provided this precipitation process with favorable weather condition.Heavy rainfall centers were located in the north and east part of KROSA with the maxima of 6-hourly total rainfall during the simulation more than 100 mm.The quantities of column solid water and column liquid water were generally equivalent,indicating the important role of ice phase in precipitation formation.Results of CloudSat showed that strong convection occurred in the eyewall around the cyclonic center.According to the simulation results,heavy precipitation in the northeast part of the typhoon was mainly triggered by convective clouds,accompanied by the strongest updraft under the melting level.In the southwest part of KROSA,precipitation intensity was rather homogeneous.The ascending center occurred in high-level cold clouds,favoring the formation and growth of ice particles.     

登陆台风“罗莎”中云物理特征的数值模拟研究

选取2007年16号超强台风“罗莎”为个例,利用耦合了双参数混合相云降水物理方案的 GRAPES中尺度模式对其进行模拟,并结合实况雨量、雷达及卫星资料分析了本次台风暴雨的结构及云微物理特征。结果表明,低空急流和不稳定的温度层结为本次降水过程提供了有利的天气条件。强降水中心主要出现在台风云系的北部和东部,在模拟时段内6小时累积降水最大值超过100 mm。积分固态水含量与液态水相当,说明冰相粒子在形成降水的过程中起重要作用。从CloudSat卫星探测结果来看,强对流发生在台风眼周围的云墙中。根据模拟结果分析,台风东北部的强降水属于对流云降水,最强上升气流出现在0 ℃等温线之下的暖区;西南部的降水强度比较均匀,强上升气流出现在高层冷云中,有利于冰粒子的形成和生长。      

不同微物理方案对台风“利奇马”雨带模拟的影响分析

云微物理过程是影响台风降水数值模拟的关键过程。利用华东中尺度模式系统,选取Thompson与CLR两种微物理参数化方案对台风“利奇马”进行数值模拟,对比观测、卫星资料,评估两个微物理参数化方案对台风模拟的影响,结果表明：相比于Thompson方案,CLR方案对台风“利奇马”的模拟在登陆后的路径、强度、降水明显更接近观测;Thompson方案在距离台风中心约100 km形成较强的螺旋雨带,而CLR方案在距离台风中心150 km左右的位置形成了较弱的螺旋雨带。进一步的分析表明,CLR方案模拟出的外围雨带距离台风中心的距离更远,是由于CLR方案中冰、霰等冰相态水凝物下落速度更小,更有可能被推送到距离台风中心更远的位置,从而形成不同的雨带分布。     

一次热带海洋对流云微物理过程的数值模拟

为了理解微物理过程以及次生对流云对热带对流云团发展演变过程的影响,利用二维云分辨模式对2006年1月20日靠近澳大利亚西北部的印度尼西亚暖池附近的一次对流云降水过程进行数值模拟,分析了对流云发展演变不同阶段各种微物理过程的特征,尤其对次生对流的形成以及并合过程进行了深入分析.结果表明:本个例所研究的热带对流云团具有发展...     

DOPPLER RADAR ECHO CHARACTERISTICS FOR COLD AIR INTRUDING INTO TYPHOON CHANCHU

With Doppler radar data from Shantou and Xiamen and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, the characteristics of a short-term heavy rainstorm on 17 May 2006 caused by Typhoon Chanchu are studied. Doppler radar data indicates that during the period from 1800 to 1900 May 17, the azimuthal phases of the positive and negative radial wind maximums are asymmetric around the core radius of the typhoon, i.e., the radial wind on the left side of the track is anomalously larger than that on the right side. Studies show that this is induced by the intrusion of cold air (northeasterly wind), which is primarily located at the mid-lower layers, lower than 4 km; this is due to the intruding cold air that forces the atmosphere to uplift, enhancing the release of instability energy, which triggers the heavy precipitation. During the late stage of the cold air activity, the typhoon is rapidly weakened. Consistent with the radar-observed intrusion of cold air, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis of wind data also shows that there are obvious large scalar wind values at the mid-lower layers (approximately 1–3 km) to the left of the typhoon center (1800 May 17), and in all regions—except those affected by the intruding cold air—the wind speeds on the right side of the track remain larger than those on the left side. Furthermore, the Rankine model results confirm that northeasterly cold air is introduced to the typhoon at the mid-lower layers to the left of the track. Calculations also point out that there exists a frontal zone with high θse that tilts from southeast to northwest with height and the super heavy rainstorm occurring in the south of Fujian province lies just near the frontal zone.     

冷空气侵入台风“珍珠”的多普勒雷达回波特征

利用汕头和厦门的多普勒雷达资料、NCEP再分析等资料,研究2006年5月17日台风“珍珠”的短时特大暴雨特征。多普勒雷达探测表明,17日18～19 h,在台风“珍珠”的核半径附近,正、负径向速度极值区分布不对称,即台风前进方向左侧的径向速度明显地大于右侧,研究表明这种特殊情况是由于冷空气(东北风)侵入所导致的,而且该冷空气侵入主要位于4 km以下的中低层,正是因为冷空气侵入造成强迫抬升,加剧不稳定能量释放,触发强降水产生,冷空气影响后期导致台风迅速减弱。与雷达速度场回波观测到的冷空气侵入相对应,17日18 h NCEP风速资料显示在中低层(约1～3 km)台风中心偏西侧,存在明显的全风速高值区,而除了受冷空气影响部位外,台风前进方向的右侧各层风速仍然大于左侧。利用蓝金模式模拟结果,可进一步证实了在台风前进方向左侧的中低层,东北向气流侵入台风涡旋的事实。通过计算物理量表明,在冷空气侵入区域存在高θse密集锋区,θse密集带从底层向高层、由偏东向偏西、由偏南向偏北方向倾斜,闽南地区的特大暴雨就发生在高θse的密集锋区附近。     

A STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF MICROPHYSICAL PROCESSES ON TYPHOON NIDA (2016) USING A NEW DOUBLE-MOMENT MICROPHYSICS SCHEME IN THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODEL

The basic structure and cloud features of Typhoon Nida (2016) are simulated using a new microphysics scheme (Liuma) within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Typhoon characteristics simulated with the Liuma microphysics scheme are compared with observations and those simulated with a commonly- used microphysics scheme (WSM6). Results show that using different microphysics schemes does not significantly alter the track of the typhoon but does significantly affect the intensity and the cloud structure of the typhoon. Results also show that the vertical distribution of cloud hydrometeors and the horizontal distribution of peripheral rainband are affected by the microphysics scheme. The mixing ratios of rain water and graupel correlate highly with the vertical velocity component and equivalent potential temperature at the typhoon eye-wall region. According to the simulation with WSM 6 scheme, it is likely that the very low typhoon central pressure results from the positive feedback between hydrometeors and typhoon intensity. As the ice-phase hydrometeors are mostly graupel in the Liuma microphysics scheme, further improvement in this aspect is required.     

高原东部地区一次雹云成雹过程的数值模拟

本文利用一维半时变双参数积云模式，对高原东部地区一次西风槽影响下的冰雹天气过程进行了数值模拟。讨论了该雹云内的动力、热力特点以及过冷云滴、冰晶、霰、雹的产生和转化以及降水粒子碰并增长等物理过程。对高原雹云的成雹机制作了初步探讨     

台风降水云区中单站强降水诊断分析和预报

实际工作表明,在台风降水云区中,有的站点有大暴雨、有的站点无大暴雨发生。这给单站预报带来较大难度。为了提高降水云区中单站大暴雨预报准确率,本文利用T213客观分析场和预报产品,采用多种物理量综合诊断分析方法,对登陆台风“云娜”在西进途中多站点进行水汽来源、不稳定层结的维持以及次生中尺度辐合等方面的研究,探讨单站大暴雨发生、发展机制和不发生大暴雨的成因。结果表明:单站有大暴雨发生的主要成因是有次级环流出现,如:站点上空∑θse(5 7 8)≥230℃。站点200 hPa为明显的负温度平流,850 hPa为明显的正温度平流。站点高低层均为正涡度中心,且低层的正值大于高层的正值。高低层散度都为负值中心;或高层为正值中心、低层为负值中心。站点垂直运动中心速度值要达-140×10-3hPa/s以下。站点需要有源源不断的充足水汽的供给和辐合。台风中心西北部水汽通量大值区靠近台风中心西部干舌梯度最大处以及风向和风速辐合最大处。在台风降水云区中,当站点满足上述各要素时大暴雨易发生。     

贵州威宁雹暴微物理特征的观测及数值模拟研究

利用位于贵州威宁雪山镇的X波段双偏振雷达,在观测资料质量控制的基础上,结合基于模糊逻辑的水凝物粒子识别算法(HID)以及中尺度数值模式WRF,对2018年6月28日贵州威宁羊街镇的一次强雹暴天气过程进行分析。结果表明：此次冰雹过程,观测识别与模式模拟结果具有较好的一致性,主要经历发展、成熟(孕育)、成熟(降雹)、衰减(消亡)四个阶段。(1)发展阶段：低密度霰(LDG)初生于-20℃层附近(5.0～6.8 km),是冰晶(CR)与周围过冷云水的凇附作用所致;高密度霰(HDG)初生于2.6～4.2 km,由聚合物(AG)凇附周围过冷云水所形成。(2)成熟(孕育)阶段：LDG、HDG以AG粒子为主要霰胚源进行凇附增长;雨夹雹(RH)初始形成在-20℃层附近(4.2～6.8 km),由周围少量HDG为雹胚源碰冻过冷云水所致。(3)成熟(降雹)阶段：LDG通过碰并作用大量形成,HDG产生有两种源项,一是由AG粒子(3.4～6.0 km)为高密度霰胚源的凇附作用,二是由上方的LDG粒子(6.8～9.3 km),因重力沉降作用,在下沉中撞冻过冷水所形成,并最终由HDG为主要雹胚源形成RH。(4)衰减...     

不同垂直分辨率对台风数值模拟影响的敏感性试验

利用新一代数值预报模式ARW(Advance Research WRF),模拟试验了在不同垂直分辨率条件下模式对"罗莎"台风的预报性能。试验结果表明,数值模式的垂直分辨率变化对台风路径预报效果的影响不大,但对台风强度和结构的预报效果有明显影响。但是,对于一定的水平分辨率而言,有一个与之匹配的垂直分辨率,垂直分辨率低于或者高于这个相匹配的阈值,模式的预报性能都会下降。     

0414号台风“云娜”的数值模拟

利用美国CAPS的非静力高分辨率区域预报模式(ARPS)对0414号台风"云娜"进行数值模拟,其中把新一代多普勒天气雷达资料分析引入模式,模拟结果表明ARPS模式能较好模拟台风"云娜"的移动路径、中心气压强度变化及台风大暴雨;并利用模式输出的组合反射率与雷达组合反射率资料比较来检验模拟结果.数值模拟结果表明台风自身结构是引起0414号台风西折路径的重要原因;浙南闽北地形对0414号台风的影响作地形敏感性试验结果表明浙南闽北地形使0414号台风移动路径出现右偏现象;浙南闽北地形对0414号台风强度影响较小,地形对深入内陆后台风强度变化有较明显的影响;浙南闽北地形对0414号台风暴雨有增幅作用,降水分布更加不均匀.     

基于CloudSat卫星的台风“彩云”(0914)云微物理结构模拟研究

使用NCEP (National Centerfor Environmental Prediction) FNL (Final Operational Global Analysis)资料作为初始场和边界条件,用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)模式对西太平洋超强台风"彩云"(0914)进行数值模拟,结合CloudSat卫星数据产品评估Lin、WSM6、Thompson和WDM6四种云微物理参数化方案对热带气旋模拟的适用性。结果表明:不同参数化方案模拟的环流形式区别不大,但对于热带气旋中心的最低气压模拟有差别。WSM6与WDM6模拟的热带气旋云量最多,Lin方案最少。但不同参数化方案模拟的热带气旋云系位置比较一致。不管从模拟的云冰剖面图还是剖面平均的云冰含量看,Thompson方案对云冰的模拟效果都是最优。雷达反射率强回波区域与云冰含量的高值区相对应,但高值区的强度、中心高度均大于CloudSat观测。水成物分布特征表明,Lin方案模拟的冰晶粒子与雪粒子较其他方案分布高度更高且含量偏小,雪粒子大部分由冰晶粒子碰并过程形成;Thomps...     

利用红外云图作台风客观定位

通过对１９８９－１９９３年收集到的台风红外Ｈ云图进行台风云系的云顶温度分析，得到了一组识别台风云系细微结构的云顶温度分布。在微机上实现了台风的客观定位。该方法经对１９９４年影响浙江的９４１４，９４１７，９４１８，９４３０四个台风的业务使用，效果较好。     

台风“珍珠”登陆期间动量通量的多尺度分析

利用台风"珍珠"登陆前后的近地层湍流观测资料,分析了该台风经过观测场地前后地面气象要素的变化及其动量通量特征。结果表明,台风"珍珠"经过观测场地前后的近地层气象要素发生了急剧的变化,并且在台风前部存在强的中尺度对流系统,反映在风速能谱密度结构上,频率f在3×10-4~2×10-3Hz之间的中尺度信号对能谱的贡献比平稳天气形势下的能谱贡献大很多,尤其是顺风方向风速的能谱密度的峰值与湍流信号的峰值相当;动量通量分析结果表明,台风中心经过观测场地的前后三小时,近地层通量以向下输送的中尺度通量为主,湍流通量的贡献相对于中尺度通量较小,也是向下输送的;而在其他时段,近地层通量主要以向上输送的湍流通量为主,中尺度通量量值很小,可以忽略。     

WRF模式中微物理和积云对流参数化方案对台风“莫拉克”模拟敏感性分析

基于WRF模式,研究了不同微物理和积云对流参数化方案对0908号台风"莫拉克"的路径移动、强度变化和降水过程模拟的敏感性。结果显示,积云对流参数化方案对台风"莫拉克"的路径和强度模拟起主导作用,采用Kain-Fritsch积云对流方案模拟的72 h平均路径误差较小;降水量的模拟主要取决于微物理参数化方案,而降水分布的好坏更依赖于积云对流参数化方案,而采用Thompson微物理和Grell-Devenyi积云对流方案的试验导致累积降水极值的偏干误差较大。积云对流方案对环境场和潜热释放模拟存在差异,导致路径和强度、温度廓线和垂直运动的模拟结果不同,而微物理方案对不同相态降水粒子的垂直分布结构模拟存在差异,从而导致降水模拟的差别。此外,由不同试验构造的集合平均能减少单个成员模拟路径和降水的不确定性,特别在强降水方面能减小空报数和漏报数,提高TS评分,改善模拟效果。     

台风对西南低涡影响的数值模拟与诊断个例分析

利用NCEP再分析资料和MM5中尺度数值预报模式对2004年9月3~6日因西南低涡造成四川盆地和重庆地区特大暴雨天气过程开展了数值模拟和诊断分析。结果表明,在此次特大暴雨天气过程中,西南低涡生成后由于受“桑达”台风的阻塞影响,西南低涡移动速度变慢,强度增大,生命期延长。同时“桑达”台风西侧吹入内陆的东北气流在西南低涡的东南侧转变为西南气流的过程中出现气流辐合并使得水汽迅速聚积,从而触发了在西南低涡附近形成特大暴雨天气过程。     

用SSM/I微波遥感图像分析海上台风的螺旋云带

文中介绍了美国国防气象卫星专用微波成像仪 (SSM /I)上各通道的特性 ,分析了大气中各种粒子 (尤其是云滴和降水滴 )对各通道辐射的吸收和散射效应。通过对SSM /I图像上台风单通道剖面、双通道散点图的分析 ,揭示了台风在微波图像上表现形式的内在物理原因。在此基础上 ,设计了一个降水指数 ,方法是 :将 85 .5GHz的吸收段对称拉伸到散射段的延长线上 ,然后求归一化后的 19.35 ,37.0GHz和经拉伸处理的 85 .5GHz图像 3者的平均值。 3个通道合成降水指数克服了 37.0GHz对大雨滴不敏感 ,和 85 .5GHz对中等大小雨滴不敏感的缺点 ,比原始单通道微波图像更清楚地显示了台风的螺旋云带结构