应用经验正交函数作梅雨天气形势预告试验

本文叙述用经验正交函数序列作梅雨结束期副热带高压天气形动的统计预报试验。试验用1960年6月1—30日20时每天的500毫巴高度资料统计计算经验函数。采用预报时间间隔为一天的时间序列自迴归方法,可以预报出副高西进、北抬与维持的趋势。预报结果几乎不受预报区域边界的影响,说明存在时间平流作用。     

贵州中尺度数值预报系统及其模拟试验

主要介绍了贵州中尺度数值预报系统、中尺度模式MM5以及业务情况。业务运行实践证明，系统具有较强的短期天气预报能力，对降水的量级和落区预报效果较好。选取4种积云对流参数化方案和两种边界层参数化方案对贵州汛期11个降水个例进行36h的降水模拟，经检验、分析和比较发现：各种方案预报效果的优劣在不同条件下有所不同，没有哪一种方案的预报效果是绝对最优的，总的来说：对50mm以下的降水，GR方案的预报效果较好，而KF方案则较差；对50mm以上的降水，BM、KF方案的预报效果一般较好；降水的模拟对参数化方案敏感。     

用神经网络试报极端气温

用人工神经元技术,筛选出与气温相关性较大的１０个物理量,建立几组样本资料,经过学习和训练,建立预报专家网络,来试报哈尔滨市夏季最高和最低气温。     

Statistical downscaling of precipitation using local regression and high accuracy surface modeling method

Downscaling precipitation is required in local scale climate impact studies. In this paper, a statistical downscaling scheme was presented with a combination of geographically weighted regression (GWR) model and a recently developed method, high accuracy surface modeling method (HASM). This proposed method was compared with another downscaling method using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database and ground-based data from 732 stations across China for the period 1976–2005. The residual which was produced by GWR was modified by comparing different interpolators including HASM, Kriging, inverse distance weighted method (IDW), and Spline. The spatial downscaling from 1° to 1-km grids for period 1976–2005 and future scenarios was achieved by using the proposed downscaling method. The prediction accuracy was assessed at two separate validation sites throughout China and Jiangxi Province on both annual and seasonal scales, with the root mean square error (RMSE), mean relative error (MRE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The results indicate that the developed model in this study outperforms the method that builds transfer function using the gauge values. There is a large improvement in the results when using a residual correction with meteorological station observations. In comparison with other three classical interpolators, HASM shows better performance in modifying the residual produced by local regression method. The success of the developed technique lies in the effective use of the datasets and the modification process of the residual by using HASM. The results from the future climate scenarios show that precipitation exhibits overall increasing trend from T1 (2011–2040) to T2 (2041–2070) and T2 to T3 (2071–2100) in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The most significant increase occurs in RCP8.5 from T2 to T3, while the lowest increase is found in RCP2.6 from T2 to T3, increased by 47.11 and 2.12 mm, respectively.

     

一次飑线过程的数值模拟及诊断分析

利用NCAR、NCEP和FSL/NOAA等共同研制的WRF中尺度数值模式,对2009年6月3日河南地区发生的一次飑线过程进行数值模拟,并利用模式输出的高分辨率资料对该次过程进行诊断分析。结果表明:WRF模式成功地再现了高低空环流形势演变及强对流的分布发展特征,高空冷涡后部冷空气南下,近地层较暖,形成了上冷下暖的位势不稳定层结及地面辐合线是这次强对流和飑线天气过程的触发机制。强对流发生时,该地区出现的低空增温增湿、低空急流的爆发及低层急流核向东南快传、高空急流轴稳定在强对流天气发生地上空,对流有效位能积累和释放随时间的演变过程及垂直螺旋度大值中心等对此次强对流天气过程有较好的指示意义。     

蕨菜生产开发试验技术分析

对蕨菜进行人工种植开发试验,结果表明：人工种植产量高、品质好、销路广,是农民脱贫致富的一条好路子,在普安县可大面积推广种植。     

智能网格SCMOC及多模式降水预报对比

以三源融合网格实况降水分析资料CMPAS为参照,基于二分法经典检验、预报评分综合图和面向对象MODE检验等方法,对比分析2021年智能网格预报SCMOC以及ECMWF全球、CMA-Meso中尺度模式在秦岭及周边地区的降水预报表现,主要结论如下：1)ECMWF能够很好地刻画日平均降水量、日降水量标准差以及地形影响下降水量、降水频次的空间分布特征,但对于0.1 mm以上量级的降水预报频次远高于观测,暴雨预报频次低于观测,SCMOC、CMA-Meso日降水量大于等于0.1 mm的降水频次和暴雨频次预报更好;SCMOC不足在于降水的空间精细分布特征描述能力相对较弱。2)ECMWF预报的大于等于0.1 mm降水频次日峰值出现时间整体较观测偏早3 h左右,CMA-Meso、SCMOC与观测总体吻合较好。3)三种产品24 h降水量大于等于0.1 mm的TS(Threat Score)评分数值上基本一致,但降水预报表现的特征显著不同,SCMOC成功率高、命中率低,漏报多、空报少,ECMWF、CMA-Meso则相反;24 h、3 h大雨以上量级降水SCMOC的TS评分、成功率、命中率一致优于其他两种产品...     

海南岛海风雷暴结构的数值模拟

利用WRF(ARW)V3.6模式模拟了2010年10月5-6日发生在海南的一次秋季大暴雨过程,从降水、风场、反射率和云结构等方面分析WRF模式中3个积云参数化方案(KF,BMJ,TiedTke)和4个微物理参数化方案(Lin et al,WSM5,WSM6,Thompson)对海南岛秋季暴雨模拟的影响。结果表明:此次秋季暴雨过程模拟对不同的积云参数化方案和微物理参数化方案组合是比较敏感的,不同的积云参数化方案和微物理参数化方案组合通过调整温湿场结构,从而影响模拟降水的时间、强度和落区。对比发现,Thompson微物理方案的组合对于降水量级的模拟更为敏感,能较合理的描述暴雨发生发展过程中的水汽输送、热力和动力条件,并通过影响雨水混合比和云水混合比的高度和大小从而影响降水。其中Thompson微物理方案和TiedTke积云方案的组合能较好的模拟出本次暴雨过程的特征,与实测最为接近,该组合模拟的最大垂直速度和反射率区与最大云水混合比对应。另外,积云方案和微物理方案的选择不影响水汽混合比的模拟。

     

The alternative of CubeSat-based advanced infrared and microwave sounders for high impact weather forecasting

近年来,小卫星技术的发展给传统气象卫星提供了经济有效的替补方案。本文针对可能出现的传统气象卫星的缺失情形,借助快速的区域观测系统模拟试验,探索了利用小卫星填补空缺的可能性。研究表明,单个小卫星,无论是近红外高光谱还是微波探测仪,都能够对局地强风暴天气的预报有所改进。然而,为了填补传统卫星缺失带来的影响,需要发射三颗甚至更多的小卫星来增加观测的覆盖面,以弥补小卫星精度略低、通道略少的缺陷。     

Impact of moisture flux convergence and soil moisture on precipitation: a case study for the southern United States with implications for the globe

Interactions between soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), atmospheric moisture fluxes and precipitation are complex. It is difficult to attribute the variations of one variable to another. In this study, we investigate the influence of atmospheric moisture fluxes and land surface soil moisture on local precipitation, with a focus on the southern United States (U.S.), a region with a strong humidity gradient and intense moisture fluxes. Experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting model show that the variation of moisture flux convergence (MFC) is more important than that of soil moisture for precipitation variation over the southern U.S. Further analyses decompose the precipitation change into several contributing factors and show that MFC affects precipitation both directly through changing moisture inflow (wet areas) and indirectly by changing the precipitation efficiency (transitional zones). Soil moisture affects precipitation mainly by changing the precipitation efficiency, and secondly through direct surface ET contribution. The greatest soil moisture effects are over transitional zones. MFC is more important for the probability of heavier rainfall; soil moisture has much weaker impact on rainfall probability and its roles are similar for the probability of intermediate-to-heavy rainfall (>10 mm day^?1). Although MFC is more important than soil moisture for precipitation over most regions, the impact of soil moisture could be large over certain transitional regions. At the submonthly time scale, the African Sahel appears to be the only major region where soil moisture has a greater impact than MFC on precipitation. This study provides guidance to understanding and further investigation of the roles of local land surface processes and large-scale circulations on precipitation.     

Hydro-climatic forecasting using sea surface temperatures: methodology and application for the southeast US

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are often used for the development of hydro-climatic variable forecasts based on teleconnection methods. Such methods rely on projections or linear combinations of teleconnection indices [e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] and other predictor fields. This study introduces a new hydro-climatic forecasting method identifying SST “dipole” predictors motivated by major teleconnection patterns. An SST dipole is defined as a function of average SST anomalies over two oceanic areas of specific sizes and geographic locations. An optimization algorithm is developed to search for the most significant SST dipole predictors of an external hydro-climatic series based on the Gerrity Skill Score. The significant dipoles are cross-validated and used to generate multiple forecast values. The new method is applied to the forecasting of seasonal precipitation over the southeast US. Hindcasting results show that significant dipoles related to ENSO as well as other prominent patterns at different lead times can indeed be identified. The dipole method also compares favorably with existing statistical forecasting schemes with respect to multiple skill measures. Furthermore, an operational forecasting framework able to produce ensemble forecast traces and uncertainty intervals that can support regional water resources planning and management is also developed.     

ECMWF集合预报产品在重庆暴雨预报中的检验与应用北大核心

利用重庆地区34个国家气象站降水资料和ECMWF集合预报降水资料,系统检验和评估了集合预报统计量产品及后处理技术产品对2014—2016年5—9月重庆暴雨的预报性能。结果表明:集合统计量产品中最大值、90%分位数、融合产品、概率匹配平均、75%分位数对暴雨预报有一定参考性,其中90%分位数和融合产品对暴雨落区预报较好,最大值对暴雨强度预报有一定指示意义,但表现为明显的湿偏差。集合预报后处理技术产品的暴雨TS评分较控制预报和集合平均有明显提高,其中概率预报、最优百分位、融合—概率匹配、频率匹配法的暴雨TS评分超过最大值,对暴雨强度预报具有较好的指导意义,其预报偏差均表现为湿偏差,融合—概率匹配和频率匹配法对暴雨落区预报较好,概率匹配—融合对降低暴雨空报率较好。     

不同催化剂、核化率、播撒速率的数值试验

以 2 0 0 0 - 0 3 - 1 4的飞机增雨为例 ,设计不同催化剂、播撒率、核化率的播撒试验方案 ,通过数值试验 ,结合个例 ,对比分析表明 :播撒率不变 ,增大核化率 ,投影面积、影响时段增加 ;核化率不变 ,播撒率越大 ,投影面积越大。对于 An- 2 6飞机 Ag I发生器 ,播撒率为 80 0 g/h,核化率在 1 0 1 3及以下时 ,投影面积较小 ,不利于增雨 ;核化率为 1 0 1 4时 ,投影面积的极值为 5 3 2 5 km2 ,影响时段为 1 2 0 min以上 ,1 2 0 min以内面积的平均值为 3 2 45 km2 ,有利于增雨。对于 Y- 1 2飞机 Ag I发生器 ,播撒率为 60 0 g/h,核化率在 5× 1 0 1 3及以下时 ,不利于增雨 ;核化率为 1 0 1 4时 ,面积极值为 45 90 km2 ,影响时段在 1 2 0 min以上 ,1 2 0 min以内面积的平均值为 2 90 5 km2 ,利于增雨。对于液态二氧化碳 ,核化率为 1 0 1 2 ,播撒率达到 1 2 g/s以上时 ,增雨作用较好     

台风"灿都"造成云南强降水过程的水汽螺旋度诊断分析

利用地面加密观测、Micaps资料和NCEP1°×1°再分析资料对1003号"灿都"台风造成云南暴雨进行诊断分析。结果表明:台风低压为高温高湿且具有强对流不稳定的深厚系统。进入云南后除了自身携带的大量水汽和能量外,先后有副热带高压西侧强盛偏南急流和孟加拉湾西南气流卷入,使得台风低压在云南持久不衰,并产生全省性强降水。诊断量"水汽螺旋度"对暴雨落区和强度有较好的对应关系,强降水多发生在水汽螺旋度正值中心的偏南侧。"水汽螺旋度"随时间变化的两个影响因子"螺旋度通量散度"和"湿螺旋度散度"对强降水的落区和强度也有较好的指示作用。若是分别对两个因子进行诊断,再综合分析环流形势,将能达到更好的强降水预报效果。     

X波段雷达和微波辐射计联合反演云中雨水含量分布的数值试验

运用中国科学院大气物理研究所的三维云模式,对北京地区2005-06-26的一次层状云过程进行模拟试验,以此为真值,分别用雷达—辐射计联合系统和单雷达进行云中雨水分布的反演。结果表明,联合反演与模式真值的平均相对误差只有16%,联合反演的精度比单雷达反演有大幅度的提高,并从理论上讨论了误差的来源。     

A reliable and efficient two-stream algorithm for spherical radiative transfer: Documentation of accuracy in realistic layered media

We present a fast and well documented two-stream algorithm for radiative transfer and particle transport in vertically inhomogeneous, layered media. The physical processes considered are internal production (emission), scattering, absorption, and Lambertian reflection at the lower boundary. The medium may be forced by internal sources as well as by parallel or uniform incidence at the top boundary. This two-stream algorithm is based on a general purpose multi-stream discrete ordinate algorithm released previously. It incorporates all the advanced features of this well-tested and unconditionally stable algorithm, and includes two new features: (i) corrections for spherical geometry, and (ii) an efficient treatment of internal sources that vary rapidly with depth. It may be used to compute fluxes, flux divergences and mean intensities (actinic fluxes) at any depth in the medium. We have used the numerical code to investigate the accuracy of the two-stream approximation in vertically inhomogeneous media. In particular, computations of photodissociation and warming/cooling rates and surface fluxes of ultraviolet and visible radiation for clear, cloudy and aerosol-loaded atmospheres are presented and compared with results from multi-stream computations. The O₃ +hv O(¹D) + O₂ and O₃ +hv O(³P) + O₂ photodissociation rates were considered for solar zenith angles between 0.0–70.0° and surface albedos in the range 0.0–1.0. For small and moderate values of the solar zenith angle and the surface albedo the error made by the two-stream approximation is generally smaller, <10%, than the combined uncertainty in cross sections and quantum yields. Surface ultraviolet and visible fluxes were calculated for the same range of solar zenith angles and surface albedos as the photodissociation rates. It was found that surface ultraviolet and visible fluxes may be calculated by the two-stream approximation with 10% error or less for solar zenith angles less than 60.0° and surface albedos less than 0.5. For large solar zenith angles and/or large surface albedos, conditions typical at high latitudes, the error made by the two-stream approximation may become appreciable, i.e. 20% or more for the photodissociation rates in the lower stratosphere and for ultraviolet and visible surface fluxes for large surface albedos. The two-stream approximation agrees well with multi-stream results for computation of warming/cooling rates except for layers containing cloud and aerosol particles where errors up to 10% may occur. The numerical code provides a fast, well-tested and robust two-stream radiative transfer program that can be used as a software tool by aeronomers, atmospheric physicists and chemists, climate modellers, meteorologists, photobiologists and others concerned with radiation or particle transport problems. Copies of the FORTRAN77 program are available to interested users.     

自然表面比辐射率测定方法的理论分析和实验

本文对野外现场测定自然表面比辐射率的方法进行了理论分析和观测实验.结果表明文献[1]的测量方法在估计比辐射率时偏高而使表面温度估计偏低,对原方法改进后可得到很好的改善;实验结果与理论计算值有很好的一致性,以部分计算值代替实测值,可减少实测项目,使观测方案进一步简化且仍保持良好的精度.应用改进后的方法,我们在“黑河试验”现场测定了几种不同下垫面的比辐射率.     

利用TRMM卫星资料对人工增雨云系模式云微观场预报能力的检验

文中利用TRMM卫星测雨雷达探测反演的云水、雨水、云冰和降冰4种云参数产品及实况降水资料,对比检验该人工增雨云系业务模式对云微观场和地面降水场的预报能力.结果表明,人工增雨云系模式系统对降水的预报能力要略优于现行业务运行的GRAPES模式;人工增雨云系模式系统能较好地预报云系系统云物理微观量的垂直结构特征,模式预报的微观场与卫星监测吻合较好;在播撒窗区的水平分布上,模式预报的各水凝物分布形势和强中心位置与卫星监测一致,其大小也接近监测值;人工增雨云系模式能较好地预报云的微观场和天气形势场,可作为云系人工增雨条件决策的重要参考依据.     

Use of precipitation data for diabatic initialization to improve the tropical analysis of divergence and moisture

Summary First, we review the present status of diabatic initialization used for numerical weather prediction and conclude that the deficiency of diabatic initialization mostly stems from the shortcoming in evaluating diabatic heating rates accurately, particularly the release of latent heat by cumulus convection. This indicates the need to adjust the initial conditions for physical processes, and Krishnamurti and his colleagues introduced in 1984 the concept of physical initialization. Since cumulus convection is most sensitive to input data among many physical processes, the adjustment of atmospheric input data to a prediction model to produce desired initial precipitation rates is referred to as cumulus initialization.In this article we describe a general approach to diabatic initialization with a special emphasis on cumulus initialization. We present the results of forecasting experiments with a version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) to demonstrate the efficacy of a cumulus initialization procedure to ameliorate the spinup problern of precipitation. Finally, we discuss application of the present methodology of cumulus initialization for a stability-dependent mass-flux cumulus parameterization of CCM2 to pave the way to complete the diabatic normal mode initialization package for CCM2. Note that the present cumulus initialization scheme can be used to assimilate into the atmospheric analysis of the tropics the precipitation rates estimated by satellite radiometric imagery data.With 8 FiguresThe National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation     

夏季西太平洋副热带高压的客观定量化预测及其对汛期降水的指示

基于动力统计相似预报原理,将模式误差动力统计预报方案应用于西太平洋副热带高压的客观定量化预测,通过交叉检验距平相关系数,筛选出对副热带高压区域的500 hPa高度场模式预报结果订正较好的因子作为前期关键因子集.对2003-2010年的副热带高压区域的500 hPa高度场进行了回报检验,结果显示该方案在数值模式预报结果基础上有了进一步提高,显示出较高的预测水平.在此基础上,从高度场预测结果中提取出与中国降水关系最为密切的两个典型副热带高压特征指数(脊线指数与西伸脊点指数),将其投影在二维平面上,并根据不同类型的副热带高压特征下对应的雨型分类特征得到预报年副热带高压所属类型下中国夏季降水的分布类型,多年检验结果表明,预测的投影类型所对应的降水合成分布与实况的降水具有较好的一致性,进一步验证此种副热带高压与雨型分类的合理性,达到通过副热带高压的定量化预测对夏季的旱涝分布形式进行预测的目的,为进一步提高汛期降水预测水平提供一种可能的思路.