PRO-GRADE: GIS toolkits for ground water recharge and discharge estimation

PRO-GRADE is an ESRI ArcGIS 9.2 plug-in package that consists of two separate toolkits: (1) the p attern r ecognition o rganizer for g eographic i nformation s ystem (PRO-GIS) and (2) the g round water r echarge a nd d ischarge e stimator for GIS (GRADE-GIS). PRO-GIS is a collection of several existing image-processing algorithms into one user interface to offer the flexibility to extract spatial patterns according to the user's needs. GRADE-GIS is a ground water recharge and discharge estimation interface using a mass balance method that requires only hydraulic conductivity, water table, and bedrock elevation data for simulating two-dimensional steady-state unconfined aquifers. PRO-GRADE was developed to assist ongoing assessments of the water resources in Illinois and Wisconsin, and is being used to assist several ground water resource studies in several locations in the United States. The advantage of using PRO-GRADE is to enable fast production of initial recharge and discharge maps that can be further enhanced by using a follow-up ground water flow model with parameter estimation codes. PRO-GRADE leverages ArcGIS to provide a computer-assisted framework to support expert judgment in order to efficiently select alternative recharge and discharge maps that can be used as (1) guidelines for field study planning and decision making; (2) initial conditions for numerical simulation; and (3) screening for alternative model selection and prediction/parameter uncertainty evaluation. In addition, PRO-GRADE allows for more easy and rapid correlation of those maps with other hydrologically relevant geospatial data.     

Combined thermodynamic and rare earth element modelling of garnet growth during subduction: Examples from ultrahigh-pressure eclogite of the Western Gneiss Region, Norway

Major and trace element zonation patterns were determined in ultrahigh-pressure eclogite garnets from the Western Gneiss Region (Norway). All investigated garnets show multiple growth zones and preserve complex growth zonation patterns with respect to both major and rare earth elements (REE). Due to chemical differences of the host rocks two types of major element compositional zonation patterns occur: (1) abrupt, step-like compositional changes corresponding with the growth zones and (2) compositionally homogeneous interiors, independent of growth zones, followed by abrupt chemical changes towards the rims. Despite differences in major element zonation, the REE patterns are almost identical in all garnets and can be divided into four distinct zones with characteristic patterns.In order to interpret the major and trace element distribution and zoning patterns in terms of the subduction history of the rocks, we combined thermodynamic forward models for appropriate bulk rock compositions to yield molar proportions and major element compositions of stable phases along the inferred pressure-temperature path with a mass balance distribution of REEs among the calculated stable phases during high pressure metamorphism. Our thermodynamic forward models reproduce the complex major element zonation patterns and growth zones in the natural garnets, with garnet growth predicted during four different reaction stages: (1) chlorite breakdown, (2) epidote breakdown, (3) amphibole breakdown and (4) reduction in molar clinopyroxene at ultrahigh-pressure conditions.Mass-balance of the rare earth element distribution among the modelled stable phases yielded characteristic zonation patterns in garnet that closely resemble those in the natural samples. Garnet growth and trace element incorporation occurred in near thermodynamic equilibrium with matrix phases during subduction. The rare earth element patterns in garnet exhibit distinct enrichment zones that fingerprint the minerals involved in the garnet-forming reactions as well as local peaks that can be explained by fractionation effects and changes in the mineral assemblage.     

The seismic microzonation of the city of Catania (Italy) for the maximum expected scenario earthquake of January 11, 1693

Safety against earthquake hazards presents two aspects: structural safety against potentially destructive dynamic forces and site safety related to geotechnical phenomena, such as amplification, landsliding and soil liquefaction. The correct evaluation of seismic hazard is, therefore, highly affected by risk factors due to geological nature and geotechnical properties of soils. In response to these new developments, several attempts have been made to identify and appraise geotechnical hazards and to represent them in the form of zoning maps, in which locations or zones with different levels of hazard potential are identified. The geotechnical zonation of the subsoil of the city of Catania (Italy) suggests a high vulnerability of the physical environment added to site amplification of the ground motion phenomena. The ground response analysis at the surface, in terms of time history and response spectra, has been obtained by some 1D equivalent linear models and by a 2D linear model, using a design scenario earthquake as input at the conventional bedrock. In particular, the study has regarded the evaluation of site effects in correspondence of the database of about 1200 boreholes and water-wells available in the data-bank of the Catania area. According to the response spectra obtained through the application of the 1D and 2D models, the city of Catania has been divided into some zones with different peak ground acceleration at the surface, to which corresponds a different value of the Seismic Geotechnical Hazard. A seismic microzoning map of the urban area of the city of Catania has been obtained. The map represents an important tool for the seismic improvement of the buildings, indispensable for the mitigation of the seismic risk.     

A deformation-based seismic design method for 3D R/C irregular buildings using inelastic dynamic analysis

A new deformation-based design method concerning 3D reinforced concrete (R/C) buildings is presented, which involves the use of advanced analysis tools, i.e. response-history analysis for appropriately scaled input motions, for multiple levels of earthquake action. The critical issues concerning the inelastic response-history analysis used for the design, namely the definition of the appropriate input, the set up of the analytical model that should account for post-yield behaviour of plastic hinge zones, and the direction of loading, are discussed. The proposed method is based on a partially inelastic model, while the design of structural members is carried out for different performance levels related to their inelastic behaviour. The aforementioned method builds on previous proposals by the first author and his co-workers, nevertheless a new procedure for the design of members that are expected to develop inelastic behaviour for the serviceability earthquake is proposed; its aim is the reduction of member design forces and the a-priori definition of their inelastic performance, by exploiting the deformation limits for the specific performance level, which are related to the damage level of the structural members. The proposed method was applied to irregular multistorey R/C 3D frame buildings with setbacks, and their performance for several levels of earthquake action was assessed using a fully inelastic model and additional ground motions not used at the design phase. The same buildings were designed according to the provisions of Eurocode 8. Comparison of the two methods of seismic design, revealed the advantages of the proposed design method, in particular the more economic detailing of transverse reinforcement in the members that develop very little inelastic behaviour even for very strong earthquakes.     

地震区划原则和方法的研究——以华北地区为例.

本文基于对我国华北地区地震活动在时间和空间不均匀分布的认识,吸收了近20年来地震预测方面的科研成果,采用目前国际通用的地震危险性概率分析方法,通过对华北区划的试验,对地震区划的原则和方法提出了如下改进: 1.以地震带作为地震活动性参数的统计单元.引入地震活动趋势估计因素,评定表征地震活动水平的年平均发生率,以使区划结果同预测未来时间段地震活动水平相适应; 2.采用按震级挡次分配各潜在震源区的年平均发生率,可以合理地评估高震级地震的危险程度; 3.采用以震级挡次为条件概率的空间分布函数,刻画地震带内各潜在震源区之间发生相应震级挡次地震的相对危险程度,使区划结果更好地反映地震活动在时间和空间上不均匀性分布的特点; 4.在地震危险性分析计算中,引入了方向性函数项,使得分析模型更接近我国地震震源的实际情况.      

梁柱-板柱组合结构(住宅)体系模型振动台试验研究

梁柱-板柱组合结构(住宅)体系由上部大开间板柱结构和底部框架结构构成，是一种可持续发展的新型结构形式。通过两个12层l：15模型的振动台对比试验，探讨其动力特性、地震反应和破坏情况。试验表明，该体系的抗震性能介于框架结构和板柱结构之间。总层数在12层以下时，不设剪力墙的该体系在7度区基本上满足规范要求，合理设置剪力墙后可用于8度区。     

Effective Solar Indices for Ionospheric Modeling: A Review and a Proposal for a Real-Time Regional IRI

The first part of this paper reviews methods using effective solar indices to update a background ionospheric model focusing on those employing the Kriging method to perform the spatial interpolation. Then, it proposes a method to update the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model through the assimilation of data collected by a European ionosonde network. The method, called International Reference Ionosphere UPdate (IRI UP), that can potentially operate in real time, is mathematically described and validated for the period 9–25 March 2015 (a time window including the well-known St. Patrick storm occurred on 17 March), using IRI and IRI Real Time Assimilative Model (IRTAM) models as the reference. It relies on foF2 and M(3000)F2 ionospheric characteristics, recorded routinely by a network of 12 European ionosonde stations, which are used to calculate for each station effective values of IRI indices \(IG_{12}\) and \(R_{12}\) (identified as \(IG_{{12{\text{eff}}}}\) and \(R_{{12{\text{eff}}}}\)); then, starting from this discrete dataset of values, two-dimensional (2D) maps of \(IG_{{12{\text{eff}}}}\) and \(R_{{12{\text{eff}}}}\) are generated through the universal Kriging method. Five variogram models are proposed and tested statistically to select the best performer for each effective index. Then, computed maps of \(IG_{{12{\text{eff}}}}\) and \(R_{{12{\text{eff}}}}\) are used in the IRI model to synthesize updated values of foF2 and hmF2. To evaluate the ability of the proposed method to reproduce rapid local changes that are common under disturbed conditions, quality metrics are calculated for two test stations whose measurements were not assimilated in IRI UP, Fairford (51.7°N, 1.5°W) and San Vito (40.6°N, 17.8°E), for IRI, IRI UP, and IRTAM models. The proposed method turns out to be very effective under highly disturbed conditions, with significant improvements of the foF2 representation and noticeable improvements of the hmF2 one. Important improvements have been verified also for quiet and moderately disturbed conditions. A visual analysis of foF2 and hmF2 maps highlights the ability of the IRI UP method to catch small-scale changes occurring under disturbed conditions which are not seen by IRI.     

Seismic hazard of the Northern Apennines based on 3D seismic sources

Seismic hazard has been computed for the Northern Apennines in northern Italy based on a new seismogenic zonation. This zonation considers inclined (dipping) planes as seismogenic sources, defined on the basis of all the seismotectonic information available so far. Although these geometries are extremely rough because they simplify with a few inclined elements the totality of faults constituting a source, this model mimics the tectonic style better than that based on horizontal planes. Nevertheless, for a comparison between the new ground motions obtained and those available in the literature, the plane version of the zonation has been developed, where horizontal areas (the standard seismogenic zones), representing the surficial projection of the inclined planes, are used as seismogenic sources.     

Seismic hazard zonation of Catalonia, Spain, integrating random uncertainties

In order to analyse the seismic hazard inCatalonia a new parametric earthquakedataset, in terms of macroseismicintensities, has been used. A newseismotectonic zonation of the area understudy and surrounding regions, which takesinto account the geologic and seismic data,is proposed. From these input data, anestimation of the seismicity of the variousseismotectonic zones has been carried outusing both stationary andnon-stationary models. As seismicity doesnot show important non-stationarities, ahazard analysis, has been carried out withthe parameters from the stationary model. Asensitivity study, using the Montecarlotechnique shows relatively smalluncertainties. For each point of thestudied area the maximum likely feltintensity was also considered. A seismichazard map combining the probabilistic anddeterministic models integratinguncertainties resulting from sensitivityanalysis is proposed.     

Reducing capture zone uncertainty with a systematic sensitivity analysis

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has established several methods to delineate wellhead protection areas (WHPAs) around community wells in order to protect them from surface contamination sources. Delineating a WHPA often requires defining the capture zone for a well. Generally, analytical models or arbitrary setback zones have been used to define the capture zone in areas where little is known about the distribution of hydraulic head, hydraulic conductivity, or recharge. Numerical modeling, however, even in areas of sparse data, offers distinct advantages over the more simplified analytical models or arbitrary setback zones. The systematic approach discussed here calibrates a numerical flow model to regional topography and then applies a matrix of plausible recharge to hydraulic conductivity ratios ( R / K ) to investigate the impact on the size and shape of the capture zone. This approach does not attempt to determine the uncertainty of the model but instead yields several possible capture zones, the composite of which is likely to contain the actual capture zone. A WHPA based on this composite capture zone will protect ground water resources better than one based on any individual capture zone. An application of the method to three communities illustrates development of the R / K matrix and demonstrates that the method is particularly well suited for determining capture zones in alluvial aquifers.     

Research on the principle and methodology of seismic zonation

Based on the cognizance of the temporal-spatial inhomogeneity of seismicity in North China, adopting the results of earthquake prediction in the past two decades and the currently used methods of seismic hazard analysis, and after some zonation trials in North China, some improvements on the zonation principle and methodology were made:

1. Seismic zones were taken as statistic units where seismicity parameters were obtained. Tendency analysis was introduced. Earthquake annual average occurrence rates were estimated corresponding to the seismicity level in the future period;
2. Average annual earthquake occurrence rates for a given magnitude interval of a specific seismic zone were assigned to potential sources considering the relative risk level among these sources. Thus, the risk of great earthquakes can be estimated.
3. The probabilistic spatial distribution function under the condition of magnitude interval was suggested to reflect the temporal and spatial inhomogeneity of seismicity.
4. An orientation function in the seismic hazard analysis model was adopted, which reflects the real condition of earthquake foci in China.

     

Uncertainty assessment in river flow projections for Ethiopia’s Upper Awash Basin using multiple GCMs and hydrological models

ABSTRACT

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge in the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, is assessed using five MIKE SHE hydrological models, six CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios for the period 2071–2100. Hydrological models vary in their spatial distribution and process representations of unsaturated and saturated zones. Very good performance is achieved for 1975–1999 (NSE: 0.65–0.8; r: 0.79–0.93). GCM-related uncertainty dominates variability in projections of high and mean discharges (mean: –34% to +55% for RCP4.5, – 2% to +195% for RCP8.5). Although GCMs dominate uncertainty in projected low flows, inter-hydrological model uncertainty is considerable (RCP4.5: –60% to +228%, RCP8.5: –86% to +337%). Analysis of variance uncertainty attribution reveals that GCM-related uncertainty occupies, on average, 68% of total uncertainty for median and high flows and hydrological models no more than 1%. For low flows, hydrological model uncertainty occupies, on average, 18% of total uncertainty; GCM-related uncertainty remains substantial (average: 28%).     

A theoretical prediction of chemical zonation in early oceans(>520 Ma)

Early oceans(520 Ma) were characterized by widespread water-column anoxia, stratification, and limited oxidant availability, which are comparable to the chemical characteristics of modern marine sedimentary pore-waters in productive continental margins. Based on this similarity and our current understanding of the formation mechanism of early Earth ocean chemistry, we propose an idealized chemical zonation model for early oceans that includes the following redox zones(from shallow nearshore to deep offshore regions): oxic, nitrogenous(NO3?-NO2?-enriched), manganous-ferruginous(Mn2+ or Fe2+-enriched), sulfidic(H2S-enriched), methanic(CH4-enriched), and ferruginous(Fe2+-enriched). These zones were dynamically maintained by a combination of processes including surface-water oxygenation by atmospheric free oxygen, nitrate reduction beneath the chemocline, nearshore manganese-iron reduction, sulfate reduction, methanogenesis, and hydrothermal Fe2+ inputs from the deep ocean. Our modified "euxinic wedge" model expands on previous versions of this model, providing a more complete theoretical framework for the chemical zonation of early Earth oceans that helps to explain observations of unusual Mo-S-C isotope patterns. This model may provide a useful foundation for future studies of ocean chemistry evolution and elemental biogeochemical cycles in early Earth history.     

Deposition of rheomorphic ignimbrite D (Mogán Formation), Gran Canaria, Canary Islands, Spain

 Rheomorphic ignimbrite D (13.4 Ma, Upper Mogán Formation on Gran Canaria), a multiple flow–single cooling unit, is divided into four major structural zones that differ in fabric and finite strain of deformed pyroclasts. Their structural characteristics indicate contrasting deformation mechanisms during rheomorphic flow. The zones are: (a) a basal zone (vitrophyre) with pure uniaxial flattening perpendicular to the foliation; (b) an overlying shear zone characterized by asymmetric fabrics and a significantly higher finite strain, with an ellipsoid geometry similar to stretched oblate bodies; (c) a central zone with a finite strain geometry similar to that of the underlying shear zone but without evidence of a rotational strain component; and (d) a slightly deformed to non-deformed top zone where the almost random orientation of subspherical pyroclasts suggests preservation of original, syn-depositional clast shapes. Rheomorphic flow in D is the result of syn- to post-depositional remobilization of a hot pyroclastic flow as shown by kinematic modeling based on: (a) the overall vertical structural zonation suggested by finite strain and fabric analysis; (b) the relation of shear sense to topography; (c) the interrelationship of the calculated vertical cooling progression at the base of the flow (formation of vitrophyre) and the related vertical changes in strain geometry; (d) the complex lithification history; and (e) the consequent mechanisms of deformational flow. Rheomorphic flow was caused by load pressure due to an increase in the vertical accumulation of pyroclastic material on a slope of generally 6–8°. We suggest that every level of newly deposited pyroclastic flow material of D first passed through a welding process that was dominated by compaction (pure flattening) before rheomorphic deformation started. Received: 25 June 1997 / Accepted: 28 October 1998     

Three-dimensional Q structure in Jiashi earthquake region of Xinjiang

Introduction It is well known that the occurrence of moderate and strong earthquakes and the distribution of seismically active belts are most directly related to deep crustal faults. Therefore, studying geometrical spreading and physical state of medium of deep crustal faults has always been a major subject in earthquake science. It is not only of great significance to the understanding of deep structural background and seismogenic mechanism of strong earthquakes, but also of great help to se…     

Oxfordian magnetostratigraphy of Poland and its correlation to Sub-Mediterranean ammonite zones and marine magnetic anomalies

A nearly continuous magnetostratigraphic polarity pattern was compiled from several ammonite-zoned carbonate successions of southern Poland and from a composite magnetostratigraphy from the Iberian Range of Spain. The array of sections spans the middle two-thirds of the Oxfordian within the Sub-Mediterranean Province (Cordatum through Bifurcatus ammonite zones). The average paleopole calculated from eight of these Polish sections is at 78.5°N, 184.9°E (δp = 2.6°, δm = 3.5°). The Sub-Mediterranean polarity pattern is consistent with an independent polarity pattern derived from the Boreal-realm sections of the British Isles, and improves the inter-correlation between these faunal realms. Cycle stratigraphy published for these ammonite subzones from southern France enabled temporal scaling of the polarity pattern, thereby facilitating correlation to marine magnetic anomalies M28 through M33 as modeled from deep-tow magnetometer surveys in the Western Pacific. The bases of the Middle and Upper Oxfordian substages as defined in the Sub-Mediterranean zonation in Poland correspond approximately to chrons M33 and M29 of that Pacific M-sequence model.     

The East Pacific Rise near 21°N, 13°N and 20°S: inferences for along-strike variability of axial processes of the Mid-Ocean Ridge

Data obtained along various segments of the Mid-Ocean Ridge (MOR) are used to construct an idealized model for crustal accretion. The model seeks to predict the topographic, volcanic, tectonic, and hydrothermal characteristics of any given spreading segment of the MOR as a function of distance away from the bounding transform faults. This model is based on a series of detailed mapping efforts carried out on segments of the MOR having a broad range of spreading rates between 2 and 16 cm/yr. This paper includes the results of the French SEARISE program carried out during the summer of 1980 aboard the N/O “Jean Charcot” and two American cruises conducted in 1981 aboard the R/V “Melville”.     

地磁场三维曲面Spline模型

利用149个地面实测数据以及12个子午工程测点数据,50个CHAMP卫星高度实测数据,并结合高空180 km处的50个IGRF12数据点,基于这三个高度的数据首次建立了中国地区地磁场三维曲面Spline（3D Spline）模型.在境外添加了39个测点以控制边界效应.通过CM4模型将所有测点的场源进行分离,统一通过主磁场值建模分析.通过将模拟结果与实测值、曲面Spline（2D Spline）以及Taylor（2D Taylor）、三维Taylor（3D Taylor）模型及IGRF12模型相比较,结果显示3D Spline模型的空间分布与其他模型整体趋势一致,但更为曲折,随着高度上升,3D Spline模型的要素Y的强度逐渐减弱.通过比较3D Spline、2D和3D Taylor模型对于不同高度6个缺测点的模拟值,残差和均方根偏差（RMSE）,3D Spline模型的模拟效果最好,要素Y、Z和总强度F的RMSE值要比其他模型低50%以上.3D Spline模型在不同高度处的模拟效果主要取决于该高度附近的实测值数量和精度.     

基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型

采用了分布式地震活动性模型. 该模型无需潜在震源区划分,同时简化了地震危险性概率分析方法. 根据破坏性地震目录建立了3个地震活动性模型,利用高斯光滑函数获得了华北区域内的a值分布特征,使用3种典型的衰减模型,分别计算了50年内超越概率10%, 5%和2%的地震动峰值加速度分布. 其分析结果显示了峰值加速度分布特征与我国第四代区划图大体一致,特定地震活动区（太原、 石家庄等地区）的峰值加速度略高于第四代区划图的结果,而这种峰值加速度分布特征与该地区较高的地震活动性特征是一致的. 概率危险性曲线结果表明,唐山、太原和北京等地区的潜在地震危险性比华北区域内其它城市高.      

Compiling and verifying 3D models of 2D induced polarization and resistivity data by geostatistical methods

A 3D model of collected time-domain induced polarization (IP) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data is compiled by geostatistical methods as well as studying spatial correlation among the database. Mesgaran copper deposit, located in Birjand eastern Iran, was chosen to compile and verify the model, leading to five parallel surveyed IP and ERT profiles with dipole–dipole arrays. The collected data were inverted, and then 2D models of IP and ER were prepared; also 3D inversion was done. Afterward, the 3D model has been built by geostatistical methods. Correspondingly, the anomalies threshold was detected by fractal methods and the estimation variance and Kriging efficiency were calculated to validate the modeling. The mineralization zones were determined according to the classified anomalies and those with the lowest error. Results indicated a high correlation between anomalies identified from the model and mineralization. The results made it possible to construct 3D models from surveyed 2D data with acceptable error level.