Solar ultraviolet irradiance and its temporal variation

Solar radiation at wavelengths below 300 nm is almost completely absorbed by the Earth’s atmosphere, becoming the dominant direct energy source and playing a major role in the chemistry and dynamics. Even small changes in this incoming radiation field will have both direct and indirect influences on atmospheric processes, and perhaps will affect the Earth’s climate as well. Some of the very earliest space missions included devices to measure solar ultraviolet irradiance, but for the most part they lacked the necessary precision and accuracy to record true solar variability over long time periods. The technology has continued to improve, and today reliable measurements over time scales up to, and including, the 11-year solar cycle, are being obtained. This review provides a summary of measurements made during the most recent solar cycle (number 22 extending from 1986 1996), with emphasis on the spectral range 120-300 nm. Comparisons and validations of recent data sets are considered, together with an assessment of the present understanding of the solar variations. There is now general agreement that for solar cycle 22 the variation is as large as a factor of two at the shortest wavelengths, decreasing to roughly 10% near 200 nm. Proceeding to wavelengths above 200 nm the solar variability continues to decrease, and at about 300 nm it becomes smaller than the present measurement capability of about 1%.     

Solar activity variations and climatic changes

Summary For the last two millenia it has been possible to determine the secular variation of solar activity from naked-eye sunspots, aurorae and radiocarbon variations. The results of the analysis of old East Asian observations of comets, which reflect the night cloudiness variation, do not agree with the former findings that the long-term climatic changes derived from comets depend on solar activity. The distinct anticorrelation between the Chinese records of comets and naked-eye sunspots is found only for the period from the 3rd to 6th century A.D., but in other centuries any correlation can hardly be seen. East Asian cometary observations give evidence of climatic changes in different parts of this large geographic region.Secular variations of the River Nile levels, regularly measured from the 7th to 15th century A.D., clearly correlate with the solar variations, which suggests evidence for solar influence on the climatic changes in the East African tropics. The decline of the Kingdoms in ancient Egypt and the occurrence of the Intermediate Periods are generally explained by very low Nile floods and prolonged droughts followed by severe famines and the destruction of the political structure. But the radiocarbon data show that at least the First and Second Intermediate Periods coincide with the secular maxima of solar activity and the Middle Kingdom with the minimum. This contradicts the positive correlation found from the eight centuries of measurements of River Nile levels made by Arabs. It seems that the influence of solar activity on the secular climatic changes has an episodic character.

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Solar proton activity during cycle 23 and changes in the ozonosphere: Numerical simulation and analysis of observational data

Using the data on solar proton fluxes measured on board the GOES satellites, the most powerful solar proton events (SPEs) of solar cycle 23 are selected, and ionization rates in the atmosphere in these periods at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are calculated. Assuming that each ion pair formed at the retardation of solar protons in the atmosphere leads to the formation of 1.25 molecules of nitric oxide, 2.0 molecules of the OH radical, and one oxygen atom, changes in the content of ozone, nitrogen and other compounds were calculated using a photochemical model. The calculations showed that the strongest ionization and destruction of ozone was caused by SPEs that occurred on July 14, 2000; November 8, 2000; November 4, 2001; and October 28, 2003. The results can form the basis for compiling the catalog of changes in ionization and ozone in the atmosphere caused by solar proton activity.     

Shortwave forcing of the Earth's climate: Modern and historical variations in the Sun's irradiance and the Earth's reflectance

Changes in the Earth's radiation budget are driven by changes in the balance between the thermal emission from the top of the atmosphere and the net sunlight absorbed. The shortwave radiation entering the climate system depends on the Sun's irradiance and the Earth's reflectance. Often, studies replace the net sunlight by proxy measures of solar irradiance, which is an oversimplification used in efforts to probe the Sun's role in past climate change. With new helioseismic data and new measures of the Earth's reflectance, we can usefully separate and constrain the relative roles of the net sunlight's two components, while probing the degree of their linkage. First, this is possible because helioseismic data provide the most precise measure ever of the solar cycle, which ultimately yields more profound physical limits on past irradiance variations. Since irradiance variations are apparently minimal, changes in the Earth's climate that seem to be associated with changes in the level of solar activity—the Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice age for example—would then seem to be due to terrestrial responses to more subtle changes in the Sun's spectrum of radiative output. This leads naturally to a linkage with terrestrial reflectance, the second component of the net sunlight, as the carrier of the terrestrial amplification of the Sun's varying output. Much progress has also been made in determining this difficult to measure, and not-so-well-known quantity. We review our understanding of these two closely linked, fundamental drivers of climate.     

西藏羊八井地区太阳短波辐照度特征及其短期预测模型对比分析

本研究利用西藏羊八井太阳短波辐照度观测数据分析了该地区2020—2021年的辐射时间序列分布特征,基于时间序列分析、随机森林（Random Forest,RF）和Prophet进行建模预测,通过对比研究探究三种模型在该地区的适用性以及提高模型预测精度的方法.结果表明：该地区短波太阳辐照度呈双峰倒U型分布的月变化和单峰倒U型分布的日变化特征.RF在选用模型中最优,其标准化均方根误差（Normalized Root Mean Square Error,NRMSE）、决定系数R2分别为17.54%和0.962.小波变换去噪能提高各模型预测精度,NRMSE降低4.82%~12.94%.组合模型能提高预测精度,误差倒数权重组合模型的NRMSE较差分自回归滑动平均模型（Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average,ARIMA）和Prophet分别下降35.22%、25.12%.预测时间步长差异也会影响预测效果,模型的预测误差随时间步长逐渐增大而减小.因此,可利用RF等机器学习模型在西藏地区进行太阳辐照度短期预测,通过小波变换、组合模型、预测时间步长等环节提高预测精度,以满足当地光伏发电对太阳辐照度的预测需求.     

Variations of Solar EUV Radiation Fluxes in Hydrogen Lines from Observations by the TIMED Satellite in Cycle 23 and by SDO/EVE in Cycle 24

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The fluxes in the spectral lines of the Lyman series and their variations in solar cycles 23 and 24 are analyzed. They are shown to vary differently with different solar...     

Soil erosion and overland flow in Japanese cypress plantations: spatio-temporal variations and a sampling strategy

ABSTRACT

Many studies have focused on soil erosion in unmanaged Japanese cypress plantations because the sparse understory vegetation and litter covering the forest ground enhance soil erosion. In this study, soil erosion, litter, and overland flow measurements were conducted over 14 months to identify the spatio-temporal variation and examine the optimal sample size. Fifteen traps (each 0.25 m wide) were installed in line along the bottom of a 15-m-wide slope. Soil erosion and overland flow had large spatial variations as compared to litter. The temporal coefficient of variation of soil erosion and overland flow was highest during dry seasons, while smaller during wet seasons. The random sampling analysis showed that the rate of decrease in spatio-temporal variation became moderate as the sample size increased beyond six. This result indicated that the optimal sample size was five, the total width of which was equivalent to about 8% of the monitored slope width.     

Solar cycle and seasonal variations in F-region vertical drifts over Kodaikanal,India

Measurements of the changes in phase path of F-region reflections at normal incidence at Kodaikanal (77° 28′E, 10° 14′N, dip 3°N) from February 1991 to February 1993 are used to determine the variation of the equatorial evening F-region vertical drifts (V_z) with season, solar and magnetic activity. It is found that on average, at Kodaikanal, the post-sunset peak in V_z(V_zp) is higher in equinox and local winter months than in local summer. The day-to-day variability in V_zp is highest in summer and lowest in winter. This seasonal trend persists even on magnetically quiet days (A_p\leq14). V_zp is found to increase with 10.7 cm solar flux in all three seasons but tends to saturate for large flux values (>230 units) during local summer and winter months. Magnetic activity [represented by A_p as well as the time-weighted accumulations of a_p and a_p ()] does not seem to have any statistically significant effect on V_zp, except during equinoctial months of moderate solar activity, when V_zp decreases as magnetic activity increases.     

Solar irradiance and total ozone over El Arenosillo (Spain) during the solar eclipse of 3 October 2005

The ground track of the annular eclipse of 3 October 2005 crossed the Iberian Peninsula. The main objective of this work was to analyze the variability of the solar irradiance and the total ozone column during the course of this event at El Arenosillo (Southwestern Spain). For achieving this goal, two Kipp & Zonen broadband radiometers (one for measuring total solar irradiance and other for measuring ultraviolet erythemal solar irradiance), one NILU-UV multi-band instrument and one Brewer spectroradiometer were used in this work. Total irradiance (310–2800 nm), and ultraviolet erythemal radiation (UVER) were recorded at a high frequency of 5 s, showing a strong reduction (higher than 80%) of the irradiance at the maximum solar obscuration which was of 79.6%. The irradiance decrease during the course of the eclipse was positively correlated with the percentage of eclipse obscuration, showing a very high agreement (R²～0.99). The irradiance recorded at selected wavelengths from the NILU-UV instrument shows a more pronounced decrease in the UV irradiance at the lower wavelengths during the solar eclipse. Finally, the evolution of the total ozone column (TOC) derived from Brewer and NILU instruments during the eclipse presented an opposite behavior: while the Brewer derived TOC values increase about 15 DU, the NILU derived TOC values decrease about 11 DU. This opposite behavior is mainly related to an artifact in the spectral irradiances recorded by the two instruments.     

Long-term variations in orographic rainfall: analysis and implications for upland catchments

Abstract

Climatic changes could alter the frequency and magnitude of rainfall events and the distribution of rainfall with altitude, with important consequences for management of aquatic ecosystems, water resources and flood risk. This study investigates changes in observed rainfall amounts across a range of altitudes in the Lake District region, northwest England, and spatial and temporal changes to the orographic “rainshadow” effect. Between the 1970s and 1990s there have been marked changes to the seasonality of precipitation, such that winters have become wetter, and increasingly dominated by heavy precipitation events. The intensity of these events has increased most markedly at higherelevation sites. Such changes could hinder recovery of sensitive upland sites from acidification and increase the risk of downstream flooding. An inter-decadal weakening of the region's rainshadow suggests a greater proportion of winter precipitation crosses the high-elevation Lake District dome. This is linked to changes in the frequency and character of wet weather patterns.     

Solar activity and cosmic ray variations as a factor of intensity of cyclonic processes at midlatitudes

Long-period variations in the cyclonic activity at middle and subpolar latitudes of the North Atlantic are studied on the basis of the data from the MSLP archive of the surface pressure (Climatic Research Unit, UK) for 1874–1995. It has been found that in the cold half year (the period of the most intense formation and development of extra-tropical cyclones) in the studied region, oscillations of the surface pressure with periods close to the main periods of solar activity (～80 and ～11 years) are observed. The obtained results make it possible to assume that solar activity and related variations in the galactic cosmic rays are one of the factors influencing the intensity of cyclonic processes at midlatitudes on the time scales of ～10 to ～100 years.     

b-value and fractal dimension variations in Iran

Iran sits on a region with a high intrinsic level of seismic activity due to its tectonic setting. Through statistical examination of the earthquakes listed in the catalogue from International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), this research attempted to calculate some seismicity factors and find correlation between them. A preliminary analysis indicated changes in the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship over the study region. Thus, the study area was divided into five zones (Alborz, Zagros, Azerbaijan, Central and East) and b-value was computed for each zone. Considering faulting mechanism styles and the b-values in the region, it was found that the lowest b-values belong to the thrust events and strike-slip faulting earthquakes have intermediate values. These findings support previous studies. Furthermore, results of b-value calculation were used for the estimation of accumulated differential stresses (σ₁–σ₂) over each zone. Overall, the b-value for Iran is averagely low which signifies the high stress tectonic regime in this region. Also, by having calculated fractal dimension (D) in each zone, a correlation obtained showing that in Iran region, the b-value correlates to fractal dimension by D = 4.2b–2 relation which does not support Aki's (1981) speculation of D = 3b/c.     

丰台地震台和房山地震台三维形变观测数据对比分析

丰台地震台和房山地震台数字化三维形变观测曲线均有年变化,但年变化相反,可能与两台站分别位于八宝山内支、外支断裂带有关,且主要由于内支断裂和外支断裂结构的不同引起,断层的不同结构及力学性质,决定了两个台站三维形变观测资料的变化规律不一致。     

GPS数据处理策略优化及适用性分析

为了分析电离层处理模式对高精度GPS数据处理精度的影响,文中结合全球分布的国际GPS服务(International GPS Service,IGS)跟踪站及具体的工程实例,对不同长度基线进行了处理,结果表明:使用高阶电离层模型改正,对成果精度有一定的提高,特别是不同长度基线处理时,应采用不同的处理模式,以便于保证成果的准确性.针对高精度GPS数据处理需要多时段重复观测的问题,本文基于误差理论提出了GPS数据处理过程中合理构建基线处理回数,多回基线组合平差的新方法;设计典型的实验研究了不同星历条件下长基线的处理效果.成果展示:采用长基线处理回数组合平差的方法,对数据处理成果精度的提高具有显著的效果,且在几种精密星历下均表现良好的收敛性;短基线通过增加基线处理回数及组合平差,成果精度及可靠性进一步提高.     

SSBUV and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 Solar Variability Measurements

The Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 instruments measured solar spectral UV irradiance during the maximum and declining phase of solar cycle 22. The SSBUV data accurately represent the absolute solar UV irradiance between 200–405 nm, and also show the long-term variations during eight flights between October 1989 and January 1996. These data have been used to correct long-term sensitivity changes in the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 data, which provide a near-daily record of solar UV variations over the 170–400 nm region between December 1988 and October 1994. The NOAA-11 data demonstrate the evolution of short-term solar UV activity during solar cycle 22.     

日长变化中长周期信号的提取及其特征分析

地核与固体地球之间角动量的交换虽然可以明显引起十年尺度的日长变化,但两者之间的耦合机制尚不明确.为了对日长年代际变化进行更深入的分析,有必要对其中主要的周期信号进行识别和提取.为此,本文利用标准Morlet小波变换方法,对精度相对较差的长期日长数据(1760-2018)进行处理,识别和提取出了 7个频率稳定的长周期信号...     

Solar activity and life: a review

During the early stages of the study of the origin of life, not enough attention was paid to the question of the correlation of chemical evolution on Earth and the all-important evolution of the still-to-be understood early Sun. Today, due to the advent of a significant fleet of space missions and the possibility of performing experiments in the International Space Station (ISS), a meaningful study begins to be possible concerning factors that led to an early onset of life on Earth. We wish to review and update recent work concerning the frontier between Space Weather (SpW) and Astrobiology. We argue that the present robust programs of various space agencies reinforce our hope for a better understanding of the bases of Astrobiology. Eventually, with a more realistic model of the Sun, more reliable discussions of all the factors influencing the origin of life on Earth, and hence Astrobiology, will be possible.     

Solar magnetic activity: topology and prediction

We ascribe the solar magnetic activity to the interplay between the plasma flow and the magnetic field. Observations by SOHO, Hinode and upcoming SDO are discussed. We then discuss the understanding and modeling of solar magnetic activity based on mathematical topological concepts. We present predictions using neural networks. Further we describe the outcome of the cycle 24 prediction panel. Finally, recommendations are given for making improved predictions.