Examining barriers and opportunities for sustainable adaptation to climate change in Interior Alaska

Human adaptation to climate change is comprised of “adjustments” in response to (or anticipation of) climatic impacts. Adaptation does not necessarily imply favorable or equitable change, nor does it automatically imply sustainable use of ecosystems. “Sustainable adaptation” in this case implies strategic, collective action to respond to or anticipate harmful climate change to reduce disruption to key resource flows and adverse effects on general well-being. This research examined social-ecological system responses to recent warming trends in the remote northwest region of Interior Alaska using a unique vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessment (VA) approach that integrated indigenous observations and understanding of climate (IC) with western social and natural sciences. The study found that Alaska Native communities that were historically highly mobile and flexible across the landscape for subsistence hunting are increasingly restricted by the institutional rigidity of the regulatory system for wildlife and subsistence management. This has resulted in negative impacts to game harvest access and success threatening food security and community well-being. This suggests that policies limiting the ability of natural resource-dependent societies to be flexible, diversify, or innovate can threaten livelihoods and exacerbate vulnerability. Nevertheless, opportunities for sustainable adaptation exist where wildlife management is adaptive and includes an understanding of and response to climate variability and slow-onset climate change with the human dimensions of subsistence hunting for more effective “in-season” management.     

Institutional adaptation to climate change: Flood responses at the municipal level in Norway

The article examines the role institutions play in climate adaptation in Norway. Using examples from two municipalities in the context of institutional responses to floods, we find, first, that the institutional framework for flood management in Norway gives weak incentives for proactive local flood management. Second, when strong local political and economic interests coincide with national level willingness to pay and provide support, measures are often carried out rapidly at the expense of weaker environmental interests. Third, we find that new perspectives on flood management are more apparent at the national than the municipal level, as new perspectives are filtered by local power structures. The findings have important implications for vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in terms of policy options and the local level as the optimal level for adaptation.     

Impact of projected climate change on hydrologic regime of the Upper Paraguay River basin

We present an assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime of the 600,000 km² Upper Paraguay River basin, located in central South America based on predictions of 20 Atmospheric/Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). We considered two climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and two 30-years time intervals centered at 2030 and 2070. Projected temperature and precipitation anomalies estimated by the AOGCMs for the study site are spatially downscaled. Time series of projected temperature and precipitation were estimated using the delta change approach. These time series were used as input to a detailed coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model aiming to estimate projected streamflow in climate change scenarios at several control points in the basin. Results show that impacts on streamflow are highly dependent on the AOGCM used to obtain the climate predictions. Patterns of temperature increase persist over the entire year for almost all AOGCMs resulting in an increase in the evapotranspiration rate of the hydrological model. The precipitation anomalies show large dispersion, being projected as either an increase or decrease in precipitation rates. Based on these inputs, results from the coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model show nearly one half of projections as increasing river discharge, and other half as decreasing river discharge. If the mean or median of the predictions is considered, no discernible change in river discharge should be expected, despite the dispersion among results of the AOGCMs that reached +/?10 % in the short horizon and +/? 20 % in the long horizon, at several control points.     

Alleviating barriers to urban climate change adaptation through international cooperation

International cooperation on climate change adaptation is regarded as one of the major avenues to reduce vulnerability in developing countries. Nevertheless, it remains unclear which design properties of international arrangements match with specific problems in local adaptation processes. This paper analyses conditions and institutional design options under which international cooperation can facilitate climate adaptation in urban areas in developing countries. We conduct a qualitative meta-analysis of empirical evidence from 23 cases. Using the archetype approach, we identify re-appearing barriers and change factors in urban squatter settlements and municipal public sectors in developing countries. We characterise five generic modes of international cooperation for climate adaptation based on UNFCCC documents, process observation, and literature review. Combining these analyses, we develop testable propositions that explain how specific design options of international arrangements can alleviate barriers and make use of change factors for urban adaptation in developing countries. We find, first, that international cooperation has the most potential to tackle adaptation barriers in squatter settlements if its institutional mechanisms support improvements of procedures and rights in localised state–society interactions. Second, national or regional centres of competence may foster endogenous dynamics in municipal public sectors. Third, national adaptation policies can enable and incentivise municipal adaptation. Fourth, flexible indicators of adaptation benefits are instruments to tailor international decision making and monitoring systems to local needs. We conclude that these insights, the archetypes approach, and a multi-level study design can be used to advance research on international cooperation, barriers, and success factors for climate change adaptation.     

Contrasting perspectives on barriers to adaptation in Australian climate change policy

Barriers to adaptation have emerged as key concerns in climate change theory and practice, however there remains little consensus about which barriers are the most significant to different groups and how competing concerns may be addressed. We investigate the significance of different barriers to adaptation for governments, the private sector, and civil society in Australia through a systematic analysis of submissions to the Australian Productivity Commission’s inquiry into barriers to adaptation. Our results show that respondents prioritise barriers differently according to their respective sectors, and that there are competing concerns about which barriers should be addressed first. Nevertheless, some barriers are more persistent in the submissions than others, with governance and policy seen by most groups as being the major impediments to adaptation. We explain the implications of our analysis for adaptation politics and policy.     

Institutional dimensions of climate change adaptation: insights from the Philippines

Understanding the institutional dimensions of climate change adaptation (CCA) is critical to the adaptation process. The institutional changes that follow the introduction of a CCA measure affect certain areas of governance, including social, political, policy, and other domains that are already exposed to prevailing institutions. Thus, understanding CCA necessitates analysis of the interplays between and among institutions that exist within a hierarchical structure, as well as the examination of how institutions across different scales define the challenges in CCA implementation. This article contributes to this discussion by investigating the challenges in mainstreaming CCA into local land use planning in Albay, Philippines. It applies a four-stage mixed methodology and uses a modified Institutional Analysis and Development framework as its primary analytical guide. Its findings imply that: (1) mainstreaming CCA is a multi-scale, multi-setting endeavour; (2) mainstreaming CCA operationalization involves networks of interacting institutions and institutional arrangements; and (3) addressing the challenges in mainstreaming needs extensive institutional transformations that reach across the various institutional settings within these networks.

POLICY RELEVANCE

This article advocates that, in designing strategies to address the challenges in mainstreaming CCA, analysts, planners, and policy makers must understand that the challenges exist within a network of institutional settings, and that these challenges encompass a chain of institutional interactions or interplays within this network. Accordingly, overcoming these challenges necessitates broad institutional reforms that go beyond the institutional setting where CCA is to be mainstreamed. Moreover, this article suggests that CCA policy making and analysis must focus on the vertical, horizontal, and network linkages and relationships created by institutional arrangements, as well as on the interplays facilitated by these arrangements. More importantly, there is a need to determine whether the institutional interplays between and among existing and planned institutions are complementary, counterproductive, conflicting, overlapping, neutral, or coexisting. Such knowledge will assist policy makers and analysts to understand the existing and potential barriers to, as well as identify opportunities for, adaptation. Consequently, the solutions to address the barriers, and the strategies that can take advantage of the opportunities, can be formulated effectively.     

Institutional design propositions for the governance of adaptation to climate change in the water sector

This paper provides an evidence-based contribution to understanding processes of climate change adaptation in water governance systems in the Netherlands, Australia and South Africa. It builds upon the work of Ostrom on institutional design principles for local common pool resources systems. We argue that for dealing with complexities and uncertainties related to climate change impacts (e.g. increased frequency and intensity of floods or droughts) additional or adjusted institutional design propositions are necessary that facilitate learning processes. This is especially the case for dealing with complex, cross-boundary and large-scale resource systems, such as river basins and delta areas in the Netherlands and South Africa or groundwater systems in Western Australia. In this paper we provide empirical support for a set of eight refined and extended institutional design propositions for the governance of adaptation to climate change in the water sector. Together they capture structural, agency and learning dimensions of the adaptation challenge and they provide a strong initial framework to explore key institutional issues in the governance of adaptation to climate change. These institutional design propositions support a “management as learning” approach to dealing with complexity and uncertainty. They do not specify blueprints, but encourage adaptation tuned to the specific features of local geography, ecology, economies and cultures.     

Adapting water management to climate change: Institutional involvement,inter-institutional networks and barriers in India

The capacity of a nation to address the hydrological impacts of climate change depends on the institutions through which water is governed. Inter-institutional networks that enable institutions to adapt and the factors that hinder smooth coordination are poorly understood. Using water governance in India as an example of a complex top-down bureaucratic system that requires effective networks between all key institutions, this research unravels the barriers to adaptation by combining quantitative internet data mining and qualitative analysis of interviews with representatives from twenty-six key institutions operating at the national level.Institutions' online presence shows a disconnect in the institutional discourse between climate change and water with institutions such as the Ministries of Water Resources, Earth Sciences and Agriculture, indicating a lesser involvement compared to institutions such as the Ministries of Finance, External Affairs, Planning Commission. The online documents also indicate a more centralised inter-institutional network, emanating from or pointing to a few key institutions including the Planning Commission and Ministry of Environment and Forests. However, the interviews suggest more complex relational dynamics between institutions and also demonstrate a gap between the aspirational ideals of the National Water Mission under the National Action Plan on Climate Change and the realities of climate change adaptation. This arises from institutional barriers, including lengthy bureaucratic processes and systemic failures, that hinder effective inter-institutional networks to facilitate adaptation. The study provides new understanding of the involvement and barriers of complex multi-layered institutions in climate change adaptation.     

Cultural barriers to climate change adaptation: A case study from Northern Burkina Faso

Human adaptation to climate change is a heterogeneous process influenced by more than economic and technological development. It is increasingly acknowledged in the adaptation to climate change literature that factors such as class, gender and culture play a large role when adaptation strategies are either chosen or rejected at the local scale. This paper explores adaptation strategies by focusing on livelihood diversification in the face of the most recent of recurrent droughts in the Sahel. It is shown that for Fulbe, one of the two main ethnic groups in the small village in Northern Burkina Faso studied, culture acts as a major barrier to embracing four of the most successful livelihood strategies: labour migration, working for development projects, gardening, and the engagement of women in economic activities.     

Informing adaptation responses to climate change through theories of transformation

Transformative actions are increasingly being required to address changes in climate. As an aid to understanding and supporting informed decision-making regarding transformative change, we draw on theories from both the resilience and vulnerability literature to produce the Adaptation Action Cycles concept and applied framework. The resulting Adaptation Action Cycles provides a novel conceptualisation of incremental and transformative adaptation as a continuous process depicted by two concentric and distinct, yet linked, action learning cycles. Each cycle represents four stages in the decision-making process, which are considered to be undertaken over relatively short timeframes. The concept is translated into an applied framework by adopting a contextual, actor-focused suite of questions at each of the four stages. This approach compliments existing theories of transition and transformation by operationalising assessments at the individual and enterprise level. Empirical validation of the concept was conducted by collaborating with members of the Australian wine industry to assess their decisions and actions taken in response to climate change. The contiguous stages represented in the Adaptation Action Cycles aptly reflected the diverse range of decision-making and action pathways taken in recent years by those interviewed. Results suggest that incremental adaptation decision-making processes have distinct characteristics, compared with those used in transformative adaptation. We provide empirical data to support past propositions suggesting dependent relationships operate between incremental and transformative scales of adaptation.     

Modeling climate change feedbacks and adaptation responses: recent approaches and shortcomings

This paper offers a critical review of modeling practice in the field of integrated assessment of climate change and ways forward. Past efforts in integrated assessment have concentrated on developing baseline trajectories of emissions and mitigation scenario analyses. A key missing component in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) is the representation of climate impacts and adaptation responses. In this paper, we identify key biases that are introduced when climate impacts and adaptation responses are omitted from the analysis and review the state of modeling studies that attempt to capture these feedbacks. A common problem in these IAM studies is the lack of connection with empirical studies. We therefore also review the state of the empirical work on climate impacts and identify ways that this connection could be improved.     

The effectiveness of communicative tools in addressing barriers to municipal climate change adaptation: lessons from the Netherlands

Little research has been done on the effectiveness of communicative tools for climate change adaptation. Filling this knowledge gap is relevant, as many national governments rely on communicative tools to raise the awareness and understanding of climate impacts, and to stimulate adaptation action by local governments. To address this knowledge gap, this study focuses on the effectiveness of communicative tools in addressing key municipal barriers to climate change adaptation, by conducting a large N-size empirical study in the Netherlands. This study explores the effectiveness of these tools in theory, by checking whether their goals match the perceived barriers to municipal climate change adaptation, and the effectiveness in practice by analysing whether they are used and perceived as useful. Document analyses have clarified the assumptions underlying the tools. By conducting semi-structured interviews with 84 municipalities the key barriers to climate change adaptation and the use and usefulness of the tools in practice were analysed. The research revealed that the key barriers experienced by municipalities are a lack of urgency, a lack of knowledge of risks and measures, and limited capacity, the first being the primary one. Communicative tools, while being effective in theory, are not sufficiently effective in practice in addressing the key barriers. Municipalities that are not experiencing a sense of urgency to take on adaptation planning are not likely to be activated by the tools. Advanced municipalities need more sophisticated tools. This article concludes with some suggestions to improve the effectiveness of communicative tools.

Key policy insights

• Although effective in theory in addressing key barriers to municipal adaptation planning, the effectiveness in practice of communicative tools is limited.

• To increase their effectiveness in practice, municipalities’ awareness of the existence of the communicative tools needs to be raised.

• Advanced municipalities need more sophisticated tools that are context-specific and address a wide range of climate risks.

• The effectiveness of communicative tools can be improved by embedding them in a wider mix of policy instruments.

     

Climate change policy responses for Canada's Inuit population: The importance of and opportunities for adaptation

We identify and examine how policy intervention can help Canada's Inuit population adapt to climate change. The policy responses are based on an understanding of the determinants of vulnerability identified in research conducted with 15 Inuit communities. A consistent approach was used in each case study where vulnerability is conceptualized as a function of exposure-sensitivity to climatic risks and adaptive capacity to deal with those risks. This conceptualization focuses on the biophysical and human determinants of vulnerability and how they are influenced by processes and conditions operating at multiple spatial-temporal scales. Case studies involved close collaboration with community members and policy makers to identify conditions to which each community is currently vulnerable, characterize the factors that shape vulnerability and how they have changed over time, identify opportunities for adaptation policy, and examine how adaptation can be mainstreamed. Fieldwork, conducted between 2006 and 2009, included 443 semi-structured interviews, 20 focus groups/community workshops, and 65 interviews with policy makers at local, regional, and national levels. Synthesizing findings consistent across the case studies we document significant vulnerabilities, a function of socio-economic stresses and change, continuing and pervasive inequality, and magnitude of climate change. Nevertheless, adaptations are available, feasible, and Inuit have considerable adaptive capacity. Realizing this adaptive capacity and overcoming adaptation barriers requires policy intervention to: (i) support the teaching and transmission of environmental knowledge and land skills, (ii) enhance and review emergency management capability, (iii) ensure the flexibility of resource management regimes, (iv) provide economic support to facilitate adaptation for groups with limited household income, (v) increase research effort to identify short and long term risk factors and adaptive response options, (vi) protect key infrastructure, and (vii) promote awareness of climate change impacts and adaptation among policy makers.     

Hydrologic effects of climate change in the Yukon River Basin

A monthly water balance (WB) model was developed for the Yukon River Basin (YRB). The WB model was calibrated using mean monthly values of precipitation and temperature derived from the Precipitation-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data set and by comparing estimated mean monthly runoff with runoff measured at Pilot Station, Alaska. The calibration procedure used the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search. Potential hydrologic effects of climate change were assessed for the YRB by imposing changes in precipitation and temperature derived from selected Inter-governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) climate simulations. Scenarios from five general circulation model (GCM) simulations were used to provide a range of potential changes. Results from the scenarios indicate an increase in annual runoff in the twenty-first century for the YRB with simulated increases in precipitation having the greatest effect on increases in runoff. Simulated increases in temperature were found to alter the timing of snow accumulation and melt.     

气候变化情景下澜沧江流域极端洪水事件研究

以澜沧江流域为研究对象,基于ISIMIP2b协议中提供的GFDL-ESM2M、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-LR、MIROC5这4种全球气候模式,通过4种模式的输出数据耦合VIC模型,分析4种模式在历史时期（1961—2005年)对洪峰洪量极值(年最大洪峰流量、3 d最大洪量)、极端洪水的模拟能力,比较RCR2.6和RCP6.0两种情景下未来时期（2021—2050年)年均径流量较基准期（1971—2000年)的变化情况,并结合P-III型分布曲线预估了澜沧江流域在两种情景下未来时期极端洪水的强度变化情况。结果表明：VIC模型在该流域能够较好地模拟极端洪水;HadGEM2-ES和MIROC5两种气候模式的输出数据在澜沧江流域有较好的径流模拟适用性;在RCP2.6情景下,澜沧江流域未来时期年均径流量没有明显变化,可能会有略微的增加,而在RCP6.0情景下,未来时期年均径流量有较大可能增加;澜沧江流域未来时期极端洪水较基准期,在RCP2.6情景下无明显变化,而在RCP6.0情景下,洪峰、洪量增加的可能性较大,极端洪水频率和强度也较大可能增加。     

Smallholders adaptation to climate change in Mali

This study was undertaken to assess the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture in the Sikasso region of southern Mali, as part of an effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to integrate climate change adaptation considerations into their development projects. The region is considered to be the breadbasket of Mali, providing a substantial amount of the country’s food supplies as well as cotton for exchange earnings. The project had two components: modeling how climate change could affect production of cereal and cash crops in southern Mali; and conducting a stakeholder-driven vulnerability and adaptation assessment to identify potential options for addressing current and projected risks to agriculture from climate change. Projected changes in crop yields were based on a previous analysis that was extended for the purposes of this study. The projections suggested that the sensitivity of maize to changing weather conditions is relatively small (generally less than 10% change) under both dry and wet scenarios in 2030 and 2060. White (Irish) potatoes, the primary cash crop, are the most sensitive to changing weather conditions, with yields decreasing under both dry and wet conditions; yields could decrease by about 25% by 2060. Stakeholder workshops, field interviews, and an expert analysis were used to assess current and future climate-related vulnerability and to identify potential adaptation options. The main focus of the assessment was farmers in a village of about 3,000 people in the Sikasso region that practiced a rice-potato rotation system typical to the region. The farmers emphasized adaptation measures that require outside financial and technical assistance, for example installation of a water gate that would retain more water in the inland valley and increase the water table to flood rice fields during the rainy season and for furrow irrigation of potatoes during the dry season. Adaptations emphasized by both the farmers and representatives of regional technical services were crop diversification and germplasm improvement; soil and water management; access to equipment (plows, carts, oxen, and improved stoves); credit stockage villageois (CSV); and fertilizer.     

Hydrological effects of the increased CO2 and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin using a modified SWAT

Increased atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change may significantly impact the hydrological and meteorological processes of a watershed system. Quantifying and understanding hydrological responses to elevated ambient CO₂ and climate change is, therefore, critical for formulating adaptive strategies for an appropriate management of water resources. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to assess the effects of increased CO₂ concentration and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The standard SWAT model was modified to represent more mechanistic vegetation type specific responses of stomatal conductance reduction and leaf area increase to elevated CO₂ based on physiological studies. For estimating the historical impacts of increased CO₂ in the recent past decades, the incremental (i.e., dynamic) rises of CO₂ concentration at a monthly time-scale were also introduced into the model. Our study results indicated that about 1–4% of the streamflow in the UMRB during 1986 through 2008 could be attributed to the elevated CO₂ concentration. In addition to evaluating a range of future climate sensitivity scenarios, the climate projections by four General Circulation Models (GCMs) under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios were used to predict the hydrological effects in the late twenty-first century (2071–2100). Our simulations demonstrated that the water yield would increase in spring and substantially decrease in summer, while soil moisture would rise in spring and decline in summer. Such an uneven distribution of water with higher variability compared to the baseline level (1961–1990) may cause an increased risk of both flooding and drought events in the basin.     

Identifying thresholds and barriers to adaptation through measuring climate sensitivity and capacity to change in an Australian primary industry

Primary producers, including graziers, crop farmers and commercial fishers are especially vulnerable to climate change because they depend on highly climate-sensitive natural resources. Adaptation to climate change will make a major difference to the severity of the impacts experienced. However, individuals (resource users) can erect sometimes seemingly peculiar barriers to potential adaptation options that need to be addressed if adaptation is to be effective. Our aim was to understand the nature of barriers to change for cattle graziers in the northern Australian rangelands. We conceptualised barriers as adverse reactions where resource users are unlikely to contemplate adaptations that threaten core values or perceptions about themselves. We assumed that resource users that were more sensitive to climate change impacts—or more dependent on the resource—were more proximate to thresholds of coping and thus more likely to erect barriers, especially people with little adaptive capacity. Given that climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity are important components of vulnerability, our approach was to conduct a vulnerability assessment to identify potential but important barriers to change. Data from 240 graziers suggest that graziers in northern Australia might be especially vulnerable to climate change because their identity, place attachment, low employability, weak networks and dependents can make them sensitive to change, and their sensitivity can be compounded by a low adaptive capacity. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation, especially at the scale of the individual.     

Reconciling approaches to climate change adaptation for Colombian agriculture

The projected impact of climate change on agro-ecological systems is considered widespread and significant, particularly across the global tropics. As in many other countries, adaptation to climate change is likely to be an important challenge for Colombian agricultural systems. In a recent study, a national-level assessment of the likely future impacts of climate change on agriculture was performed (Ramirez-Villegas et al. Clim Chang 115:611–628, 2012, RV2012). The study diagnosed key challenges directly affecting major crops and regions within the Colombian agricultural system and suggested a number of actions thought to facilitate adaptation, while refraining from proposing specific strategies at local scales. Further insights on the study were published by Feola (2013) (F2013), who stressed the need for transformative adaptation processes to reduce vulnerability particularly of resource-limited farmers, and the benefits of a predominantly stakeholder-led approach to adaptation. We clarify that the recommendations outlined in RV2012 were not intended as a recipe for multi-scale adaptation, but rather a set of actions that are required to diagnose and develop adaptation actions particularly at governmental levels in coordination with national and international adaptation initiatives. Such adaptation actions ought to be, ideally, a product of inclusive sub-sectorial assessments, which can take different forms. We argue that Colombian agriculture as a whole would benefit from a better outlining of adaptation needs across temporal scales in sub-sectorial assessments that take into account both RV2012 and F2013 orientations to adaptation. We conclude with two case studies of research on climate change impacts and adaptation developed in Colombia that serve as examples of realistic, productive sectorial and sub-national assessments.     

Impacts and adaptation to climate change in European economies

This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change to European economies under an increase in global mean temperature at +2 °C and +4 °C. It is based on a summary of conclusions from available studies of how climate change may affect various sectors of the economies in different countries. We apply a macroeconomic general equilibrium model, which integrates impacts of climate change on different activities of the economies. Agents adapt by responding to the changes in market conditions following the climatic changes, thus bringing consistency between economic behaviour and adaptation to climate change. Europe is divided into 85 sub-regions in order to capture climate variability and variations in vulnerabilities within countries. We find that the impacts in the +2 °C are moderate throughout Europe, with positive impacts on GDP in some sub-regions and negative impacts down to 0.1 per cent per year in others. At +4 °C, GDP is negatively affected throughout Europe, and most substantially in the southern parts, where it falls by up to 0.7 per cent per year in some sub-regions. We also find that climate change causes differentiations in wages across Europe, which may cause migration from southern parts of Europe to northern parts, especially to the Nordic countries.