Seismic ground motion relationship in southern China based on stochastic finite-fault model

The characteristics of seismic ground motions in southern China are difficult to determine statistically due to a lack of strong ground motion data. In this study, a stochastic finite-fault ground motion model was adopted to simulate the seismic ground motions at bedrock for southern China, based on parameters derived from small and medium earthquakes that have occurred in the region. From these, the response spectra was estimated. A set of ground motion attenuation relations hipswas then developed based on simulated peak ground motions and response spectral parameters through regression, which would be applicable for use in engineering practice. Through comparisons, it was demonstrated that the proposed ground motion relationships are generally consistent with those obtained from other reported ground motion attenuation models for southern China.     

Regional characteristics of coda attenuation after the lancang-Gengma earthquake

In the light of the single scattering model of coda originating from local earthquakes, and based on the aftershock coda registered respectively at the 4 short period stations installed near the foci shortly after theM7.6 Lancang andM7.2 Gengma earthquakes, this paper has tentatively calculated the rate of amplitude attenuation and theQ _c-value of the coda in the Lancang and Gengma areas using a newly-founded synthetic determination method. Result of the study shows the rate of coda amplitude attenuation demonstrates remarkable regional differences respectively in the southern and northern areas. The southern area presents a faster attenuation (Q _c=114), whereas the northern area shows a slower attenuation (Q _c=231). The paper also discusses the reasons causing such differences. Result of the study also suggests a fairly good linear relation between the coda source factorA _o(f) and the seismic moment and the magnitude. Using the earthquake scaling law, the following formulas can be derived: lgM ₀=lgA ₀(f)+17.6,M _D=0.67lgA ₀(f)+1.21 and logM ₀=1.5M _D+15.79. In addition, the rates of amplitude attenuationβ _s andβ _m are respectively calculated using the single scattering and multiple scattering models, and the ratioβ _s/β_m=1.20−1.50 is found for the results respectively from the two models. Finally, the mean free pathL of the S-wave scattering in the southern and northern areas are determined to be 54 km and 122 km respectively by the relations which can distinguish between the inherentQ _i and scatteringQ _s, testify to this areas having lowQ-values correspond to stronger scatterings. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 71–82, 1992. This study is partly supported by the Seismological Science Foundation of the State Seismological Bureau of China, and the present English version of the paper is translated from its Chinese original by Wenyi Xia, Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province.     

Anelasticity of the crust and upper mantle beneath north and central India from the inversion of observed Love and Rayleigh wave attenuation data

The fundamental mode Love and Rayleigh waves generated by earthquakes occurring in Kashmir, Nepal Himalaya, northeast India and Burma and recorded at Hyderabad, New Delhi and Kodaikanal seismic stations are analysed. Love and Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients are obtained at time periods of 15–100 seconds, using the spectral amplitude of these waves for 23 different paths along northern (across Burma to New Delhi) and central (across Kashmir, Nepal Himalaya and northeast India to Hyderabad and Kodaikanal) India. Love wave attenuation coefficients are found to vary from 0.0003 to 0.0022 km^–1 for northern India and 0.00003 km^–1 to 0.00016 km^–1 for central India. Similarly, Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients vary from 0.0002 km^–1 to 0.0016 km^–1 for northern India and 0.00001 km^–1 to 0.0009 km^–1 for central India. Backus and Gilbert inversion theory is applied to these surface wave attenuation data to obtainQ ^–1 models for the crust and uppermost mantle beneath northern and central India. Inversion of Love and Rayleigh wave attenuation data shows a highly attenuating zone centred at a depth of 20–80 km with lowQ for northern India. Similarly, inversion of Love and Rayleigh wave attenuation data shows a high attenuation zone below a depth of 100 km. The inferred lowQ value at mid-crustal depth (high attenuating zone) in the model for northern India can be by underthrusting of the Indian plate beneath the Eurasian plate which has caused a low velocity zone at this shallow depth. The gradual increase ofQ ^–1 from shallow to deeper depth shows that the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary is not sharply defined beneath central India, but rather it represents a gradual transformation, which starts beneath the uppermost mantle. The lithospheric thickness is 100 km beneath central India and below that the asthenosphere shows higher attenuation, a factor of about two greater than that in the lithosphere. The very lowQ can be explained by changes in the chemical constitution taking place in the uppermost mantle.     

Ground motion attenuation relation for small to moderate earthquakes in Fujian region, China

We collect 1974 broad-band velocity records of 94 earthquakes (ML=2.8~4.9, △=13~462 km) from seven stations of the Fujian Seismic Network from March 1999 to March 2007. Using real-time simulation, we obtain the corresponding acceleration and then adopt different models to analyze the seismic data. As a result, a new attenuation relationship between PGA and PGV of the small and moderate earthquakes on bedrock site in Fujian region is established. The Yongchun earthquake occurred recently verifies the attenuation relationship well. This paper provides a new approach for studying the ground motion attenuation relationship using velocity records.     

Projection of surface water resources in the context of climate change in typical regions of China

Climate change and its impact on hydrological processes are overarching issues that have brought challenges for sustainable water resources management. In this study, surface water resources in typical regions of China are projected in the context of climate change. A water balance model based on the Fu rational function equation is established to quantify future natural runoff. The model is calibrated using data from 13 hydrological stations in 10 first-class water resources zones of China. The future precipitation and temperature series come from the ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) climate dataset. Taking natural runoff for 1961–1990 as a baseline, the impacts of climate change on natural runoff are studied under three emissions scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulated results indicate that the arid and semi-arid region in the northern part of China is more sensitive to climate change compared to the humid and semi-humid region in the south. In the near future (2011–2050), surface water resources will decrease in most parts of China (except for the Liaozhong and Daojieba catchments), especially in the Haihe River Basin and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The decrement of surface water resources in the northern part of China is more than that in the southern part. For the periods 2011–2030 and 2031–2050, surface water resources are expected to decrease by 12–13% in the northern part of China, while those in the southern part will decrease by 7–10%.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch     

基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型

采用了分布式地震活动性模型. 该模型无需潜在震源区划分,同时简化了地震危险性概率分析方法. 根据破坏性地震目录建立了3个地震活动性模型,利用高斯光滑函数获得了华北区域内的a值分布特征,使用3种典型的衰减模型,分别计算了50年内超越概率10%, 5%和2%的地震动峰值加速度分布. 其分析结果显示了峰值加速度分布特征与我国第四代区划图大体一致,特定地震活动区（太原、 石家庄等地区）的峰值加速度略高于第四代区划图的结果,而这种峰值加速度分布特征与该地区较高的地震活动性特征是一致的. 概率危险性曲线结果表明,唐山、太原和北京等地区的潜在地震危险性比华北区域内其它城市高.      

基于信息论方法分析我国典型地震动衰减关系

近年来我国强震数据逐渐增多,为了比较和分析我国的几个典型地震动衰减关系,采用一种信息论方法,基于实际地震动记录,计算选取的地震动衰减关系模型的对数似然函数值,通过对数似然函数值对模型进行排序,并给出相应的权重及排名,分析了不同衰减关系对地震动的预测能力。研究表明:针对于我国西部强震数据,基于强震动记录建立的衰减关系的预测结果更接近于实测地震动数据。研究结果可为地震动记录信息不完善或缺乏强震数据地区的地震动衰减关系选取提供参考。     

Comparison of the spatial distribution of ground motion between main shocks and strong aftershocks

Using the ground motion attenuation relation, we calculated and compared the effective peak acceleration (EPA) generated by main shocks and their strong aftershocks of 21 earthquake sequences with MS≥7 occurred in Chinese mainland and offing of China during 1966~2002. The result shows that EPA of strong aftershocks usually exceed that of main shock for 76.2% earthquake sequences and EPA of more than 50% strong aftershocks are greatly lar-ger than that of main shocks in large area, which suggests that it is necessary to take damage produced by strong aftershock into account in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the seismic design.     

Copula joint function and its application in probability seismic hazard analysis

A mature mathematical technique called copula joint function is introduced in this paper, which is commonly used in the financial risk analysis to estimate uncertainty. The joint function is generalized to the n-dimensional Frank’s copula. In addition, we adopt two attenuation models proposed by YU and Boore et al, respectively, and construct a two-dimensional copula joint probabilistic function as an example to illustrate the uncertainty treatment at low probability. The results show that copula joint func...     

2-D Image of Seismic Attenuation beneath the Deep Seismic Sounding Profile "Quartz," Russia

—We present a 2-D image of the upper mantle attenuation using nuclear explosion data from the ultra-long refraction/reflection profile "Quartz." Our analysis is based on a modified common spectrum technique followed by least-squares inversion for Q and iterative ray tracing in the velocity structure obtained earlier. The resulting attenuation structure corroborates the earlier model for northern Eurasia, as well as our recent estimate based on the analysis of the long-range P _n phase, and provides significantly more detail than the existing models. The resulting upper mantle attenuation structure is characterised by Q values ranging from 400 to 1800. Down to the depths of 150–190, and probably 400 km, the attenuation increases horizontally in SE direction, away from the Baltic Shield. Our model exhibits strong 2-D, vertical and horizontal attenuation contrasts. A high-attenuation layer in the depth range of 120–150 to 160–180 km can apparently be associated with the presence of a partial melts within the base of the lithosphere.     

Nonlinear free thermal convection in a spherical shell:A variable viscosity model

Introduction The velocity field of surface plate motion can be split into a poloidal and a toroidal parts.At the Earth′s surface,the toroidal component is manifested by the existence of transform faults,and the poloidal component by the presence of convergence and divergence,i.e.spreading and subduc-tion zones.They have coupled each other and completely depicted the characteristics of plate tec-tonic motions.The mechanism of poloidal field has been studied fairly clearly which is related to …     

Stochastic spatial analysis of earthquake sequence

In this paper, by means of the statistical analysis method of stochastic spatial point process, statistical analysis of spatial distribution of earthquakes in the large northern region of China is made. Emphasis is on the test and analysis of the complete spatial randomness, correlation of earthquake distribution in the different magnitude interval and random labeling. It is shown by the analysis that the spatial distribution of earthquakes in the large northern region is “clustered”, the distributions of earthquakes in different magnitude interval are positively correlated and can be modeled by a two-dimensional process. The results obtained in the paper can be used for the establishment of a reasonable spatial distribution model and have some application in the reasonable estimation of seismic hazard. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 129–135, 1993.     

The GIS and analysis of earthquake damage distribution of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake

The geography information system of the 1303 Hongton M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studies. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship, the abnormal damage distribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics, site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed. Foundation item: National important fundamental research “The Basic Research of Important Project in Damage Environment” and The important project “The Seismic Hazard Assessment Research and Anti-earthquake Structure Research” from China Earthquake Administration during the 10th Five-year Plan. Contribution No. 04FE1008, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.     

Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin,Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble

ABSTRACT

A semi-distributed hydrological model is developed, calibrated and validated against unregulated river discharge from the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin, northern Brazil. Climate change impacts are simulated using projections from the 41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Scenario results are compared to a 1971–2000 base line. Most climate models suggest declines in mean annual discharge although some predict increases. A large proportion suggest that the dry season experiences large declines in discharge, especially during the transition to the rising water period. Most models (>75%) suggest declines in annual minimum flows. This may have major implications for both current and planned hydropower schemes. There is greater uncertainty in projected changes in wet season and annual maximum discharges. Two techniques are investigated to reduce uncertainty in projections, but neither is able to provide more confidence in the simulated changes in discharge.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor F. Hattermann     

Attenuation of peak ground acceleration in central california from observations of the 17 october, 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

The strong ground motion produced by the 17 October, 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in northern California was recorded at over 100 stations. Accelerograms were generated at sites with significantly different geology, including land fill and soft sedimentary soil sites. In this study, the attenuation characteristics of the peak vertical and horizontal ground accelerations are studied for freefield recording conditions within 100 km of the source by the application of a non-linear multi-regression procedure. Two sets of attenuation models for weighted and unweighted observations are compared with those reported by other investigators for this earthquake and for regional and worldwide data. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) observations for this earthquake exceed previous predictions of standard attenuation models, particularly beyond 30 km (approximately 60 percent at 50 km). Higher attenuation of the vertical component compared to the horizontal is confirmed. The regression considers site geology as an independent parameter. Soil sites display as much as 23 per cent amplification relative to rock sites for horizontal PGA and as much as 40 per cent for vertical PGA. Amplification of the ground motion at sites characterized by soft soil geology is examined by comparing the recorded PGA with the corresponding prediction at sites underlain by stiff soil. Eight of ten of the soft soil sites display significant amplification relative to stiff soil sites (as much as 300 per cent for horizontal and 200 per cent for vertical components). Particular attention is paid to the so-called anomalous observations at distances beyond 50 km. The anomalous observations between 50 and 80 km may be attributed to various factors such as geology, basic geometry, azimuthal dependence, source mechanism and normal scatter of observations.     

Attenuation relations of ground motion for rock and soil sites in eastern United States

This paper presents the attenuation relations of peak ground acceleration and spectral accelerations for rock and soil sites in the central and eastern United States (CEUS). For the bedrock site condition, 56 pairs of moment magnitude M and epicentral distance R are used to simulate ground motion, and for each pair of M and R, 550 samples of ground motion parameters are generated using a seismological model together with random vibration theory and distribution of extreme values. From the regression analyses of these data, the attenuation relations of ground motion parameters for the bedrock site are established. With the aid of appropriate site coefficients, these attenuation relations are modified for the site categories specified in the 1994 NEHRP Provisions. These attenuation relations are appropriate for the assessment of seismic hazards at far-field rock and soil sites in the CEUS.     

Influence of the modified global ocean tide model with local tides of East and South China Seas on load gravity in China and its neighbor area

Introduction With the development of science and technology, the accuracy of gravity measurement is im-proved. The gravity observation with FG5 gravimeter has reached accuracy of μ magnitude. And the high accurate superconducting gravimeter can detect the tiny signal of 10?2 μ magnitude in frequency domain. With the high-accuracy gravity observation on Earth′s surface, the Earth′s tidal parameters can be determined precisely. And the observations can also be used to invert the struc-ture…     

MÉTHODE D'ÉTUDE DES NAPPES LIBRES DANS LES AQUIFÈRES ANISOTROPES

Abstract

The necessary and sufficient conditions for non-zero phase shift and non-zero attenuation in linear flood routing can be derived from the continuity equation alone and are found to depend on the existence of an imaginary part in the expression for frequency or in the expression for wave number. It is shown that in linear flood routing the phase lag between flow rate and area of flow is directly related to the attenuation per unit wave length. The effects of using various forms of the momentum equation, in addition to the continuity equation, are exemplified by deriving analytical expressions in terms of the frequency, both for attenuation per unit channel length and for phase shift, for the kinematic wave, the general diffusion analogy, and the complete St. Venant equation.     

Visco-Elastic Waves in Rock-Like Composites

The subject of this paper is the treatment of rocks - and, especially, fluid-saturated and partially saturated reservoir rocks, as composite visco-elastic media. By this we mean to study and partially answer the question of how the effective material (frequency-dependent and complex-valued stiffness/density) parameters can be estimated from a knowledge of the constituents of the rocks, their volume fractions, the statistical distribution of sizes, shapes, orientations and positions of the individual particles (minerals of quartz, clay, etc.) and cavities (pores, cracks, etc.); in addition to parameters related to the fluid and its ability to flow, at the scale of the microstructure as well as that of the wavelength (assumed to be long compared to the scale-size of the microstructure).Our approach is to develop and combine a theory of stochastic waves with established results for the micromechanics of defects in solids, as well as state-of-the-art models of wave-induced fluid flow. Specifically, we first derive an exact formal expression for the effective material parameters in terms of a dynamic T-matrix for the material, which satisfies a single integral equation of the Lippmann-Schwinger type (known from quantum scattering theory), but formulated in an abstract vector space, associated with the combination of the strain and velocity fields into a more general state vector . Inclusions-based models are developed on the basis of standard many-body techniques, known from the static T-matrix approach as well as nuclear collision theory. The t-matrix of a low-aspect-ratio spheroidal crack is expressed in terms of the familiar displacement discontinuity parameters of Hudson, via the so-called K-tensor, which is of interest in itself, for example, when connecting cracks to pores (in the presence of multiple solid constituents) on the basis of an expression for the t-matrix of a communicating cavity.The present theory can in principle be used beyond the Rayleigh limit, but explicit estimates of the effective material parameters have so far been derived only under the assumption that (scattering attenuation can be ignored) the wavelength is large compared to the scale-size of a representative volume element. Starting with the dynamic equations of motion, we show that the behaviour of the mean wave in the Rayleigh limit is indeed determined by the effective stiffness tensor associated with a static theory of composites, in conjunction with the spatially averaged density for the heterogeneous material as a whole. Thus, we have provided justification to the procedure we used in a series of related papers, where we started out with the static equilibrium condition and employed the elastic/visco-elastic correspondence principle. Numerical examples (dealing with the effects of randomly oriented cracks on the isotropic velocity and attenuation spectra of a dual porosity model of clay-sand mixtures, and the effects of spatial distribution on the anisotropic attenuation spectra of fully aligned cracks that are partially saturated with two different fluids) will be provided in order to complement those in our earlier papers.     

Variation of karst spring discharge in the recent five decades as an indicator of global climate change: A case study at Shanxi,northern China

As one of the largest international scientific pro- grams in geoscience and environmental science, global change studies were initiated in the early 1980s[1,2]. Noticeable achievements have been made in the stud- ies using indicators such as loess, marine sediment, permafrost, vermicular red earth, and even magmatic activity[2―6]. In recent years, the importance of ground- water as a new type of global change indicators has caused wide attention[7]. Stochastic, isotopic and hy- drochemical st…