Numerical correlation of speleothem stable isotope records using a genetic algorithm

The correlation of geological records is commonly based on subjective and arbitrary interpretation by a researcher. Geological data are usually collected as a series on a depth scale, and then chronologies of the profiles are constructed. The correlation of geological records based on matching quality indicators requires an efficient method of searching for the best position. GenCorr is a software based on a genetic algorithm, for correlation of records with or without accompanying chronological control. Where their age information is available, points on both records may be moved in the range limited by the age uncertainties. GenCorr has been developed by the authors in Borland RAD Studio 2007 environment. The authors tested the impact of matched record length, noise level, sampling resolution, or additional linear components and hiatuses on the correlation results using artificial test data. Finally, the genetic algorithm was applied to stable isotope records obtained from two stalagmites collected from the Demianova Cave System (Low Tatras, Slovakia). The results show that the genetic algorithm correlation method is similar to that used in pattern recognition by the human eye without prior knowledge of the ages. The genetic algorithm is able to correlate in multidimensional space and is free from human biases, but we accept that there are also occasions where additional expert opinion may be also important. GenCorr can be run on every PC with MS Windows operating system, the package was not tested in Mac environment. GenCorr is available as a freeware from the authors. For downloading, please contact: dzeq@twarda.pan.pl.     

The record of paleoclimatic change from stalagmites and the determination of termination II in the south of Guizhou Province,China

A high-resolution climate record from 163.00 kaBP to 113.80 kaBP has been obtained through TIMS-U series dating and carbon and oxygen isotope analysis of the three large stalagmites from two caves in the south of Guizhou Province, China. The record of the oxygen isotopes from the stalagmites reveals that the undulation characteristics between the cooling event of the glacial period and the warming event of the interglacial period in the research area can compare well to those of ice cores, lake sediments, loess and deep sea sediments on the scale of ten-thousand years or millennium time scale. The climate undulation provided by the record of the stalagmites has a coherence with the global changes and a tele-connection to the paleoclimate changes in the north polar region. Our results suggest that the direct dynamics of paleo-monsoon circulation changes reflected in the record of the stalagmites might be caused by changes of the global ice volume, and in turn related to various factors, including the solar radiation strength at the mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, the southern extension of the ice-rafted event in the North Atlantic, and changes of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature at the low-latitudes. Using °¹⁸O values, we have calculated the temperatures and the results show that the temperature difference between the penultimate glacial period (with an average temperature of 8.1°C, and a minimum temperature range from 0.65°C to-1.43°C at stage 6) and the last interglacial period (with an average temperature of 18.24°C at sub-stage 5e) was about 10°C. This temperature difference from the record of the stalagmites corresponds in general to the record temperature variation (about 10°C) of measured ice cores. The climate records from the three stalagmites in the two caves have shown that the circulation strength of the Asian summer monsoon and the winter monsoon in the penultimate glacial period and the last inter-glacial period had a clear change. With the TIMS-U series method, termination II of the penultimate glacial period has been precisely dated at an age of (129.28± 1.10) kaBP for the three stalagmites in the south of Guizhou Province, China. This borderline age represents the beginning of the last interglacial period or the boundary between the Middle Pleistocene and the Late Pleistocene, and corresponds to the beginning age of the last interglacial period shown by the ice cores and in the SPECMAP curve of the marine oxygen isotopes. The chronology determination of termination II is not only of stratigraphic and chronological significance, but also lays an important foundation for discussing the short time scales of climate oscillation and rapidly changing events of paleoclimate in the circulation region of the East Asian monsoon.     

Stalagmite growth perturbations from the Kumaun Himalaya as potential earthquake recorders

The central part of the Himalaya (Kumaun and Garhwal Provinces of India) is noted for its prolonged seismic quiescence, and therefore, developing a longer-term time series of past earthquakes to understand their recurrence pattern in this segment assumes importance. In addition to direct observations of offsets in stratigraphic exposures or other proxies like paleoliquefaction, deformation preserved within stalagmites (speleothems) in karst system can be analyzed to obtain continuous millennial scale time series of earthquakes. The Central Indian Himalaya hosts natural caves between major active thrusts forming potential storehouses for paleoseismological records. Here, we present results from the limestone caves in the Kumaun Himalaya and discuss the implications of growth perturbations identified in the stalagmites as possible earthquake recorders. This article focuses on three stalagmites from the Dharamjali Cave located in the eastern Kumaun Himalaya, although two other caves, one of them located in the foothills, were also examined for their suitability. The growth anomalies in stalagmites include abrupt tilting or rotation of growth axes, growth termination, and breakage followed by regrowth. The U-Th age data from three specimens allow us to constrain the intervals of growth anomalies, and these were dated at 4273?±?410 years BP (2673–1853 BC), 2782?±?79 years BP (851–693 BC), 2498?±?117 years BP (605–371 BC), 1503?±?245 years BP (262–752 AD), 1346?±?101 years BP (563–765 AD), and 687?±?147 years BP (1176–1470 AD). The dates may correspond to the timings of major/great earthquakes in the region and the youngest event (1176–1470 AD) shows chronological correspondence with either one of the great medieval earthquakes (1050–1250 and 1259–1433 AD) evident from trench excavations across the Himalayan Frontal Thrust.     

A 53 year seasonally resolved oxygen and carbon isotope record from a modern Gibraltar speleothem: Reconstructed drip water and relationship to local precipitation

The response of a climate proxy against measured temperature, rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns at sub-annual resolution is the ultimate test of proxy fidelity but very few data exist showing the level of correspondence between speleothem climate proxies and the instrumental climate record. Cave sites on the Gibraltar peninsula provide a unique opportunity to calibrate speleothem climate proxies with the longest known available precipitation isotopes and instrumental records. An actively growing speleothem sampled from New St. Michaels Cave in 2004 is composed of paired laminae consisting of light columnar calcite and a darker microsparitic calcite. Stable isotope analysis of samples micromilled in 100 μm steps at the equivalent of bi-monthly intervals reveals fabric-correlated annual cycles in carbon isotopes, oxygen isotopes and trace elements responding to seasonal changes in cave microclimate, hydrology and ventilation patterns. Calcite δ¹³C values reach a minimum in the light columnar fabric and evidence from trace element behaviour and cave monitoring indicates that this grows under cave ‘winter’ conditions of highest pCO₂, whereas the dark microsparitic calcite, characterised by elevated δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values grows under low ‘summer’ pCO₂ conditions. Drip water δ¹³C_DIC reaches a minimum in March–April, at which time the attenuated δ¹⁸O signal becomes most representative of winter precipitation. An age model based on cycle counting and the position of the ¹⁴C bomb carbon spike yields a precisely dated winter oxygen isotope proxy of cave seepage water for comparison with the GNIP and instrumental climate record for Gibraltar. The δ¹⁸O characteristics of calcite deposited from drip water representing winter precipitation for each year can be derived from the seasonally resolved record and allows reconstruction of the δ¹⁸O drip water representing winter precipitation for each year from 1951–2004. These data show an encouraging level of correspondence (r² = 0.47) with the δ¹⁸O of rainfall falling each year between October and March and on a decadal scale the δ¹⁸O of reconstructed winter drip water mirrors secular change in mean winter temperatures.     

In-phase anomalies in Beryllium-10 production and palaeomagnetic field behaviour during the Iceland Basin geomagnetic excursion

Increases in the production rate of cosmogenic radionuclides associated with geomagnetic excursions have been used as global tie-points for correlation between records of past climate from marine and terrestrial archives. We have investigated the relative timing of variations in ¹⁰Be production rate and the corresponding palaeomagnetic signal during one of the largest Pleistocene excursions, the Iceland Basin (IB) event (ca. 190 kyr), as recorded in two marine sediment cores (ODP Sites 1063 and 983) with high sedimentation rates. Variations in ¹⁰Be production rate during the excursion were estimated by use of ²³⁰Th_xs normalized ¹⁰Be deposition rates and authigenic ¹⁰Be/⁹Be. Resulting ¹⁰Be production rates are compared with high-resolution records of geomagnetic field behaviour acquired from the same discrete samples. We find no evidence for a significant lock-in depth of the palaeomagnetic signal in these high sedimentation-rate cores. Apparent lock-in depths in other cores may sometimes be the result of lower sample resolution. Our results also indicate that the period of increased ¹⁰Be production during the IB excursion lasted longer and, most likely, started earlier than the corresponding palaeomagnetic anomaly, in accordance with previous observations that polarity transitions occur after periods of reduced geomagnetic field intensity prior to the transition. The lack of evidence in this study for a significant palaeomagnetic lock-in depth suggests that there is no systematic offset between the ¹⁰Be signal and palaeomagnetic anomalies associated with excursions and reversals, with significance for the global correlation of climate records from different archives.     

A method to anchor floating chronologies in annually laminated speleothems with U–Th dates

Stalagmites occasionally present laminae which, when demonstrated to be annual, may be used to construct an annually resolved chronology. Such annually laminated records provide an opportunity to improve the precision of age models based on other dating techniques. Since annually laminated stalagmites sometimes present a complex stratigraphy with lateral variations in lamina thickness associated with changing macroscopic growth shapes, a procedure for lamina counting is developed here, which complements other methods of speleothem lamina counting. Regardless of the complexity of laminae, when the exact date of a laminated section is unknown, lamina counting provides a floating chronology. This paper describes a method to anchor floating chronologies in speleothems using the least-squares fit of the lamina counting to the radiometric dates (typically U–Th). The estimation of uncertainties in the age model is also considered, which accounts for uncertainties in the lamina counting as well as the fit of the lamina count to the radiometric dates. The uncertainty of this fit does not depend on the analytical uncertainty of the radiometric dates or the precision in the lamina counting, and simply considers all the available dates and their distance to the proposed age model. As an example, the method was applied to a stalagmite from Northern Spain and its accuracy was compared with the annually resolved and cross-dated Greenland chronology during the 8.2 ka event. Although this method has been described for stalagmites, it could be applied to other records in which cross-dating techniques would not be suitable.     

Biomass effects on stalagmite growth and isotope ratios: A 20th century analogue from Wiltshire, England

Increases in calcite deposition rates combined with decreases in δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O in three modern stalagmites from Brown's Folly Mine, Wiltshire, England, are correlative with a well-documented re-vegetation above the mine. Increased soil P_CO2 resulted in greater amounts of dissolved CaCO₃ in the drip waters, which consequently increased annual calcite deposition rates. The absence of deposition prior to 1916 (28 years after the mine was closed) indicates that vegetation had not yet sufficiently developed to allow higher P_CO2 values to form in the soil. Lower δ¹³C values through time may reflect the increased input of isotopically light biogenic carbon to the total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). δ¹⁸O decreased synchronously with δ¹³C, reflecting the increased importance of isotopically light winter recharge due to greater biomass-induced summer evapotranspiration. This is the first empirical demonstration that vegetation density can control stalagmite growth rates, δ¹³C, and δ¹⁸O, contributing critical insights into the interpretation of these climate proxies in ancient stalagmites.     

Simulation of daily rainfall scenarios with interannual and multidecadal climate cycles for South Florida

Concerns about the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change have led to a closer examination of how climate varies in the long run, and how such variations may impact rainfall variations at daily to seasonal time scales. For South Florida in particular, the influences of the low-frequency climate phenomena, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), have been identified with aggregate annual or seasonal rainfall variations. Since the combined effect of these variations is manifest as persistent multi-year variations in rainfall, the question of modeling these variations at the time and space scales relevant for use with the daily time step-driven hydrologic models in use by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) has arisen. To address this problem, a general methodology for the hierarchical modeling of low- and high-frequency phenomenon at multiple rain gauge locations is developed and illustrated. The essential strategy is to use long-term proxies for regional climate to first develop stochastic scenarios for regional climate that include the low-frequency variations driving the regional rainfall process, and then to use these indicators to condition the concurrent simulation of daily rainfall at all rain gauges under consideration. A newly developed methodology, called Wavelet Autoregressive Modeling (WARM), is used in the first step after suitable climate proxies for regional rainfall are identified. These proxies typically have data available for a century to four centuries so that long-term quasi-periodic climate modes of interest can be identified more reliably. Correlation analyses with seasonal rainfall in the region are used to identify the specific proxies considered as candidates for subsequent conditioning of daily rainfall attributes using a Non-homogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM). The combined strategy is illustrated for the May–June–July (MJJ) season. The details of the modeling methods and results for the MJJ season are presented in this study.     

近台资料对近震相对定位算法的影响

从地震定位的基本原理出发,分析认为近台资料可用于双差定位算法,但不能用于其他相对定位方法.在此基础上,通过分析和模拟计算表明,应用近台资料时,双差法有可能给出一定精度的地震绝对位置.但仅采用近台资料时,相对位置的误差会比使用远台资料时有所增加.近台和远台资料的联合使用,有利于得到较为精确的定位结果.当震源深度远小于震中距时,如果没有深度震相的参与,只能得到误差较小的震中相对分布,深度的相对位置仍有较大的误差.对2003年新疆伽师地震余震序列中部分余震的重新定位试验,验证了近台资料对双差定位算法的上述影响.     

Advances in GDGT research in Chinese marginal seas: A review

Archaeal and bacterial glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) play a unique role in discerning the biogeochemical processes and climate change in terrestrial (e.g. soil, peat, stalagmites, lakes, rivers, hot springs) and marine environments. Organic proxies based on GDGTs (e.g. TEX₈₆, MBT/CBT and BIT) have made impressive applications in the open ocean and terrestrial environments. However, the applicability of these proxies in marginal seas has not been thoroughly evaluated, which is necessary given the complexity and dynamics of these systems, such as organic matter (OM) flux, hydrodynamic conditions, and human impact. This review aims to summarize recent studies of GDGTs and GDGT-based proxies in the Chinese marginal seas (CMS), which are characterized by diverse gradient in terrigenous supplies and ocean productivity and hold rich information on climate and sea level changes, ocean current dynamics, sedimentary evolution and biogeochemical processes.     

A stratigraphic network across the Subtropical Front in the central South Atlantic: Multi-parameter correlation of magnetic susceptibility, density, X-ray fluorescence and δO records

Computer aided multi-parameter signal correlation is used to develop a common high-precision age model for eight gravity cores from the subtropical and subantarctic South Atlantic. Since correlations between all pairs of multi-parameter sequences are used, and correlation errors between core pairs (A, B) and (B, C) are controlled by comparison with (A, C), the resulting age model is called a stratigraphic network. Precise inter-core correlation is achieved using high-resolution records of magnetic susceptibility κ, wet bulk density ρ and X-ray fluorescence scans of elemental composition. Additional δ¹⁸O records are available for two cores. The data indicate nearly undisturbed sediment series and the absence of significant hiatuses or turbidites. After establishing a high-precision common depth scale by synchronously correlating four densely measured parameters (Fe, Ca, κ, ρ), the final age model is obtained by simultaneously fitting the aligned δ¹⁸O and κ records of the stratigraphic network to orbitally tuned oxygen isotope [J. Imbrie, J. D. Hays, D. G. Martinson, A. McIntyre, A. C. Mix, J. J. Morley, N. G. Pisias, W. L. Prell, N. J. Shackleton, The orbital theory of Pleistocene climate: support from a revised chronology of the marine δ¹⁸O record, in: A. Berger, J. Imbrie, J. Hays, G. Kukla, B. Saltzman (Eds.), Milankovitch and Climate: Understanding the Response to Orbital Forcing, Reidel Publishing, Dordrecht, 1984, pp. 269-305; D. Martinson, N. Pisias, J. Hays, J. Imbrie, T. C. Moore Jr., N. Shackleton, Age dating and the orbital theory of the Ice Ages: development of a high-resolution 0 to 300.000-Year chronostratigraphy, Quat. Res. 27 (1987) 1-29.] or susceptibility stacks [T. von Dobeneck, F.Schmieder, Using rock magnetic proxy records for orbital tuning and extended time series analyses into the super-and sub-Milankovitch Bands, in: G. Fischer, G. Wefer (Eds.), Use of proxies in paleoceanography: Examples from the South Atlantic, Springer-Verlag, Berlin (1999), pp. 601-633.]. Besides the detection and elimination of errors in single records, the stratigraphic network approach allows to check the intrinsic consistency of the final result by comparing it to the outcome of more restricted alignment procedures. The final South Atlantic stratigraphic network covers the last 400 kyr south and the last 1200 kyr north of the Subtropical Front (STF) and provides a highly precise age model across the STF representing extremely different sedimentary regimes. This allows to detect temporal shifts of the STF by mapping δMn / Fe. It turns out that the apparent STF movements by about 200 km are not directly related to marine oxygen isotope stages.     

Spectral time method of identification of seismic events at distances of 15°–40°

The spectral time method is applied to the identification of underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and earthquakes from P wave records obtained at stations at epicentral distances of 15°–40°. It is necessary to utilize data at such great distances because the density of stations of the International Monitoring System is small in several areas of the Earth. At such distances, it is difficult to detect S and surface LR waves and, therefore, the efficiency of the identification using the diagnostic parameters (discriminants) S/P and LR/P is drastically reduced. As a result, the role of spectral and spectral time methods in the identification of events from P waves becomes much more significant. An advantage of the spectral time method (STM) is that it is applicable in the region of interest, provided that data from one or two reference underground chemical explosions and a representative sample of earthquake records obtained at network stations of the region are available. Moreover, in the majority of cases, the STM identifies earthquakes that could not be recognized with the use of spectral diagnostic parameters. We used records of UNEs and earthquakes in Central Asia received from the archives of the Center of the Incorporated Research Institution for Seismology (IRIS) in Washington, the National Data Center in Dubna (Russian Federation), and the International Data Center (IDC) in Vienna. The effectiveness of earthquake record selection using the given method amounted to about 80%. Supposedly, the application of this method of identification can increase the percentage of filtration (screening) of regional events having a natural origin.     

A comparison of different methods for speleothem age modelling

Speleothems, such as stalagmites and flowstones, can be dated with unprecedented precision in the range of the last 650,000 a by the ²³⁰Th/U-method, which is considered as one of their major advantages as climate archives. However, a standard approach for the construction of speleothem age models and the estimation of the corresponding uncertainty has not been established yet.Here we apply five age modelling approaches (StalAge, OxCal, a finite positive growth rate model and two spline-based models) to a synthetic speleothem growth model and two natural samples. All data sets contain problematic features such as outliers, age inversions, large and abrupt changes in growth rate as well as hiatuses.For data sets constrained by a large number of ages and not including problematic sections, all age models provide similar results. In case of problematic sections, the algorithms provide significantly different age models and uncertainty ranges.StalAge, OxCal and the finite positive growth rate model are, in general, more flexible since they are capable of modelling hiatuses and account for problematic sections by increased uncertainty. The spline-based age models, in contrast, reveal problems in modelling problematic sections.Application to the synthetic data set allows testing the performance of the algorithms because the ‘true’ age model is available and can be compared with the age models. OxCal and StalAge generally show a good performance for this example, even if they are inaccurate for a short section in the area of a hiatus. The two spline-based models and the finite positive growth rate model show larger inaccurately modelled sections.     

Precise dating of East-Asian-Monsoon D/O events during 95―56 ka BP: Based on stalagmite data from Shanbao Cave at Shennongjia, China

Based on 23 U/Th analyses and 532 oxygen isotopic data, an averaged 80-a stalagmite oxygen isotopic composition series was established through 95 to 56 thousand years before present (ka BP) from two speleothems in Shanbao Cave, Shennongjia, central China. Shanbao Cave record (referred to as SB record) replicates well with Hulu Cave record, extending the characteristics of millennial oscillations in East-Asian-Summer-Monsoon (EASM) to the past 95 ka. The trend of the SB record generally follows mid-July solar insolation at 65°N, suggesting that mid-high northern latitude insolation, in the first order, controls changes of EASM intensity. Millennial oscillations of EASM recorded in the stalagmites are well related to the Greenland interstadials referred to as Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events from 1 to 22, indicating that rapid ocean-atmosphere reorganization in North Atlantic has a remote effect in EASM. The well-dated D/O events by stalagmites probably provide an absolute calibration for chronologies of Greenland ice cores. The timings of D/O events in the SB record are different variously from those in Greenland ice cores. For D/O 19 and 20, the age offsets between the stalagmites' and the Greenland ice cores' record are significant, larger than the uncertainties of uranium-series dating. The two events in the SB record are younger than those in North GRIP time scale by 1―2 ka, and older than the counterparts in GISP2 by approximately 3―4 ka. A comparison between the SB and Brazil stalagmite record shows an anti-phase relation in millennial-scale monsoon precipitation between the two localities. This supports a mode for the coupled ocean-atmosphere "See-saw".     

Complicated responses of stalagmite δ 13C to climate change during the last glaciation from Hulu Cave,Nanjing, China

We present a record on carbon stable isotopic composition (δ ¹³C), covering 75 through 10 thousands years ago (ka B.P.), from Hulu Cave, Nanjing. The overlapping d 13C profiles are very similar in pattern and range, indicating that they mainly record climatic signal. During the last glacial-interglacial transition, the >6‰ change of δ ¹³C values implies different contributions of C3 vs. C4 type plants in soils. On millennial scale, however, the increased calcite δ ¹³C during the warm Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events suggests a decrease of dissolved bio-genic CO₂ when water flux rate through soil is large. This correlation between heavier d 13C and higher precipitation is consistent with our previous report on the samples’ stable oxygen isotope records (Wang et al., 2001). Comparison of coeval δ ¹³C and δ ¹⁸O of stalagmites indicates that kinetic fractionation of carbon isotope is closely related to growth rate of stalagmites. This study also shows that local vegetation changes may lag behind precipitation changes by δ700 years during the deglaciation.     

Holocene climate forcings and lacustrine regime shifts in the Indian summer monsoon realm

Extreme climate events have been identified both in meteorological and long-term proxy records from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) realm. However, the potential of palaeoclimate data for understanding mechanisms triggering climate extremes over long time scales has not been fully exploited. A distinction between proxies indicating climate change, environment, and ecosystem shift is crucial for enabling a comparison with forcing mechanisms (e.g. El-Niño Southern Oscillation). In this study we decouple these factors using data analysis techniques [multiplex recurrence network (MRN) and principal component analyses (PCA)] on multiproxy data from two lakes located in different climate regions – Lonar Lake (ISM dominated) and the high-altitude Tso Moriri Lake (ISM and westerlies influenced). Our results indicate that (i) MRN analysis, an indicator of changing environmental conditions, is associated with droughts in regions with a single climate driver but provides ambiguous results in regions with multiple climate/environmental drivers; (ii) the lacustrine ecosystem was ‘less sensitive’ to forcings during the early Holocene wetter periods; (iii) archives in climate zones with a single climate driver were most sensitive to regime shifts; (iv) data analyses are successful in identifying the timing of onset of climate change, and distinguishing between extrinsic and intrinsic (lacustrine) regime shifts by comparison with forcing mechanisms. Our results enable development of conceptual models to explain links between forcings and regional climate change that can be tested in climate models to provide an improved understanding of the ISM dynamics and their impact on ecosystems. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A high-resolution tephrostratigraphy from Quoyloo Meadow,Orkney, Scotland: Implications for the tephrostratigraphy of NW Europe during the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition

Macro- and crypto-tephra layers deposited in European climate archives during the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition (LGIT ca. 16–8 ka) have become increasingly important as a means to robustly correlate palaeoclimate records, and to test the spatial and temporal synchronicity of climatic transitions. However, correlations between climate archives are currently limited by the number of tephra-linkages that can be made. This disparity in the observed distributions of tephras may lie with methodological limitations relating to the resolution of cryptotephra refinement within palaeoclimate records. Here we present new data from Quoyloo Meadow, Orkney Mainland, Scotland, where nine tephra horizons and ten chemically distinct tephra populations have been identified and correlated to known eruptions during the LGIT. Three of the tephras; the Hässeldalen, Hovsdalur and the Fosen are characterised and placed into a reliable tephrostratigraphy for the first time in the British Isles. The detection of new tephra layers in this case is thought to reflect modifications to the sampling approach applied here. The resulting tephrostratigraphy is used to produce an age model with centennial-scale precision, providing new age estimates for three poorly dated tephras. The chronology rivals the output of more traditionally dated radiocarbon chronologies, and illustrates the potential for tephra to develop robust age-depth models for carbonate sequences.     

Extreme hydrological events,palaeo-information and climate change

Abstract

Extreme flood events have been and continue to be one of the most important natural hazards responsible for deaths and economic losses. Extreme floods result in direct destructive effects during the time of the event, and they also may be followed by a related chain of indirect calamities such as famines and epidemics that produce additional damages and suffering. Extreme hydrological events that have occurred in the historical past may also occur in the future. Knowledge about magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of past extreme hydrological events in most regions are too short to adequately evaluate potential magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme hydrological events. Stationary climate in which the mean and variance do not change over time is a basic underlying assumption of standard methodological procedures for estimating recurrence probabilities of extreme hydrological events. Palaeo-archives contained in river and lake sediments, fossil plant and animal matter, ice layers, and other natural archives show that the assumption of stationary climate is not valid when the time scale is extended beyond centuries and millennia. Records of past extreme floods that occurred long before the period of instrumentation can be reconstructed from the distribution of slackwater flood deposits or from derivation of water depths competent to transport the largest rocks found in flood deposited sediment. Palaeoflood records reconstructed from the Upper Mississippi and Lower Colorado River systems in the United States confirm nonstationary behaviour of the mean and variance in hydrological time series. These stratigraphic records have shown that even very modest climatic changes have resulted in very important changes in the magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme floods. A close relationship was found between the palaeo-flood record of extreme floods in the Upper Mississippi River system and a palaeo-record of stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon preserved in speleothem calcite from a local cave. The relationship suggests that isotopic records elsewhere might be calibrated to provide insight about how future potential climate changes might impact extreme flood magnitudes and recurrence frequencies there. Atmospheric global circulation models (GCMs) mainly simulate average climatic conditions and are presently inadequate sources of information about how future climate changes might be represented at the extreme event scale. Palaeo-flood archives, however, provide basic information about how magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme hydrological events responded to past climate changes and they also provide a reference base against which GCM simulations can be calibrated regionally and be better interpreted to decipher hydrological information at the extreme event scale.     

Accurate chronological construction for two young stalagmites from the tropical South Pacific

Modern to Holocene tropical Pacific stalagmites are commonly difficult to date with the U-series, the most commonly used dating method for speleothems. When U-series does not provide robust age models, due to multiple sources of ²³⁰Th or little U, radiocarbon is, potentially, the best alternative. The ¹⁴C content of two stalagmites (Pu17 and Nu16) collected from Pouatea and Nurau caves in the Cook Island Archipelago of the South Pacific were measured to obtain accurate chronology for their most modern parts. The bomb-pulse soil continuum modelling indicates that bomb radiocarbon in Pu17 onsets in 1956 and reaches its maximum in 1966 CE, suggesting a fast transfer of atmospheric carbon to the stalagmite of <1 year. The modelling for Pu17 suggests a 20% contribution from C₁ - an instantaneous carbon source, which renders possible an immediate transfer of atmospheric signal into the cave. Nu16 shows a slower transfer of atmospheric carbon to the stalagmite than Pu17, with bomb radiocarbon onsetting in 1957 CE and peaking in 1972 CE. The less negative δ¹³C values in Nu16 than Pu17, and also the modelling corroborated this, which points out no contribution from the instantaneous carbon source. The radiocarbon age models and laminae counting age models were then spliced to achieve a single master chronology for the top part of each stalagmite. This study is an example of ¹⁴C age modelling combined with visible physical and chemical laminae counting and how it can improve the accuracy and precision of dating for otherwise hard-to-date tropical Pacific speleothems. Such accurate and precise age models pave the way to obtain sub-annually resolved paleoclimate records by further improving the calibration of climate proxy data with the current and instrumental weather parameters.