西藏地区复杂地形下的降水空间分布估算模型

本文提供了一个描述西藏地区年、季降水量空间分布的估算模型.利用卫星遥测数字化地形高程资料和西藏地区仅有的27个常规气象站的多年平均降水整编资料,根据地形坡向站点分为三类.再采用多元逐步回归方法,建立西藏地区的年、季降水量和经度、纬度、海拔高度、坡度、坡向、遮蔽度等6个地理、地形因子之间的关系模型,估算西藏地区降水量的空间分布.结果表明,此方法建立的关于西藏地区降水量与诸因子之间方程的相关性显著,平均绝对误差、相对误差分别为093mm和116%,对估算模型进行F检验,均通过置信度为095的相关检验,回归效果较显著.分析表明估算降水能够定量、定性地再现西藏地区的实际降水分布.     

鲁甸地震的滑坡物质运移规律与地形特征

长期、缓慢的地貌演化具有阶段性的特点,构造抬升与侵蚀相互作用引起山坡物质运移,使地貌单元具有向相对稳定状态转变的趋势.滑坡作为山坡物质运移的一种主要方式,在地貌演化过程中起到了重要作用.2014年鲁甸MS6.5地震诱发了异常多的滑坡,可以看作是该区地貌物质在短时间内发生的集中调整过程.这些滑坡主要沿河流分布,表明河流侵...     

中国区域地理、地形因子对降水分布影响的估算和分析

不同与以往基于最小二乘的多元线性回归方法,本文首次尝试将新型的第二代回归分析方法——偏最小二乘回归分析方法应用到中国区域的降水建模中．利用区域内394个气象观测站建站到2000年45年(及以上)的降水资料,建立了一个简单的年、季降水量和地理、地形因子(包括纬度、经度、地形高程、坡度、坡向和遮蔽度)的关系模型,估算了区域降水量中地理、地形的影响部分,并分析了这种影响的特征．结果表明,用此方法建立的模型能够解释70%以上的因变量的变异,相关系数基本都在0.84以上,经交叉有效性检验,模型的回归效果较显著．分析表明,在多元线性回归不适用的情况下,本文基于偏最小二乘法的简单模型能够比较准确地定性、定量地再现实际降水分布．     

An integrated statistical approach to identify the nonlinear trend of runoff in the Hotan River and its relation with climatic factors

A number of studies have indicated a transition from warm-dry to warm-wet climate in Northwest China after the 1980s. This transition was characterized by an increase in temperature and precipitation, added river runoff volume, increased lake water surface elevation and area, and elevated groundwater table. However, some literatures showed that the Hotan River has presented a contrary situation, i.e. the runoff decreased, whereas temperature and precipitation increased. In order to discover the nonlinear runoff trend and its causes in the Hotan River, based on the related data from hydrological stations, ground and air sounding meteorological stations, this study applied a comprehensive method combing correlation analysis, wavelet analysis and regression analysis to investigate the runoff change in the Hotan River with its relevant climatic factors over the past decades. The main findings are: (a) the hydrological process of the Hotan River is a nonlinear system, with a periodicity of 24 year cycle, and it shows different nonlinear trends at different time scales; (b) the data from the ground meteorological stations in the Hotan area shows a false appearance that there is almost no correlation between runoff and temperature, and a little negative correlation between runoff and precipitation; (c) but the data from air sounding meteorological stations shows the truth that there is a close relation between the runoff in the Hotan River and the 0°C level height in summer on the north slope of Kunlun Mountains. The two variables present a same periodicity, i.e. 24-year cycle, having similar nonlinear trends and significant correlations at different time scales.     

Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data

This study aims to determine trends in the long‐term annual mean and monthly total precipitation series using non‐parametric methods (i.e. the Mann–Kendall and Sen's T tests). The change per unit time in a time series having a linear trend was estimated by applying a simple non‐parametric procedure, namely Sen's estimator of slope. Serial correlation structure in the data was accounted for determining the significance level of the results of the Mann–Kendall test. The data network used in this study, which is assumed to reflect regional hydroclimatic conditions, consists of 96 precipitation stations across Turkey. Monthly totals and annual means of the monthly totals are formed for each individual station, spanning from 1929 to 1993. In this case, a total of 13 precipitation variables at each station are subjected to trend detection analysis. In addition, regional average precipitation series are established for the same analysis purpose. The application of a trend detection framework resulted in the identification of some significant trends, especially in January, February, and September precipitations and in the annual means. A noticeable decrease in the annual mean precipitation was observed mostly in western and southern Turkey, as well as along the coasts of the Black Sea. Regional average series also displayed trends similar to those for individual stations. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The pattern of surface wind flow in Antarctica

Summary The main characteristics of surface winds are tabulated for 34 Antarctic stations. Using these data, supplemented by traverse records, the average wind flow is interpolated for each region and presented as a map showing the pattern of surface wind flow for the whole continent. Attention is focused on the flow in relation to surface contours. Statistics are presented for surface slope, wind speed, temperature, seasonal variations of speed and temperature, diurnal variation (including power spectra) of the wind speed and times of maximum and minimum speed at coastal and inland stations, wind frequency versus direction, the occurrence of calms, the deviation of the plateau wind from the downslope direction, the wind direction near the front of ice shelves, the proportion of cloud cover, and wind chill factors. In all cases data are grouped according to the environs of the stations in an attempt to isolate systematic differences depending on location: coastal stations near the foot of the ice slope and fully exposed to katabatic flow, coastal stations on offshore islands, coastal stations on peninsulas, coastal stations on extensive rock areas, ice shelf stations and inland stations.     

Effects of a variety of Indian Ocean surface temperature anomaly patterns on the summer monsoon circulation: Experiments with the NCAR general circulation model

The time mean response of the summer monsoon circulation, as simulated by the 2.5° latitude-longitude resolution, July version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Model (GCM), to a variety of Indian Ocean surface temperature anomaly patterns is examined. In separate experiments, prescribed changes in surface temperature are imposed in the Western Arabian Sea, the Eastern Arbian Sea or the Central Indian Ocean. The influence of these anomaly patterns on the simulated summer monsoon circulation is evaluated in terms of the geographical distribution of the prescribed change response for any field of interest. This response is defined as the grid point difference between a 30-day mean from a prescribed change experiment and the ensemble average of the 30-day means from the control population for which the same set of climatological ocean surface temperatures are used in each simulation. The statistical significance of such a prescribed change response is estimated by relating the normalized response (defined as the ratio of the prescribed change response to the standard deviation of 30-day means as estimated from the finite sample of control cases) to the classical Student'st-statistic. Using this methodology, the most prominent and statistically significant features of the model's response are increased vertical velocity and precipitation over warm anomalies and typically decreased vertical velocity and precipitation in some preferred region adjacent to the prescribed change region. In the case of cold anomalies, these changes are of opposite sign. However, none of the imposed anomaly patterns produces substantial or statistically significant precipitation changes over large areas of the Indian sub-continent. The only evidence of a major nonlocal effect is found in the experiment with a large positive anomaly (+3°C) in the Central Indian Ocean. In this instance, vertical velocity and precipitation are reduced over Malaysia and a large area of the Equatorial Western Pacific Ocean. Thus, while these anomaly experiments produce only a local response (for the most part), it is hoped, as one of the purposes of the planned Monsoon Experiment (MONEX), that the necessary data will be provided to produce detailed empirical evidence on the extent to which Indian Ocean surface temperature anomalies correlate with precipitation anomalies over the Indian subcontinent—a correlation which generally does not appear in these GCM results.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation     

A Gridded Daily Min/Max Temperature Dataset With 0.1° Resolution for the Yangtze River Valley and its Error Estimation

The minimum/maximum (Min/Max) temperature in the Yangtze River valley is decomposed into the climatic mean and anomaly component. A spatial interpolation is developed which combines the 3D thin-plate spline scheme for climatological mean and the 2D Barnes scheme for the anomaly component to create a daily Min/Max temperature dataset. The climatic mean field is obtained by the 3D thin-plate spline scheme because the relationship between the decreases in Min/Max temperature with elevation is robust and reliable on a long time-scale. The characteristics of the anomaly field tend to be related to elevation variation weakly, and the anomaly component is adequately analyzed by the 2D Barnes procedure, which is computationally efficient and readily tunable. With this hybridized interpolation method, a daily Min/Max temperature dataset that covers the domain from 99°E to 123°E and from 24°N to 36°N with 0.1° longitudinal and latitudinal resolution is obtained by utilizing daily Min/Max temperature data from three kinds of station observations, which are national reference climatological stations, the basic meteorological observing stations and the ordinary meteorological observing stations in 15 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River valley from 1971 to 2005. The error estimation of the gridded dataset is assessed by examining cross-validation statistics. The results show that the statistics of daily Min/Max temperature interpolation not only have high correlation coefficient (0.99) and interpolation efficiency (0.98), but also the mean bias error is 0.00 °C. For the maximum temperature, the root mean square error is 1.1 °C and the mean absolute error is 0.85 °C. For the minimum temperature, the root mean square error is 0.89 °C and the mean absolute error is 0.67 °C. Thus, the new dataset provides the distribution of Min/Max temperature over the Yangtze River valley with realistic, successive gridded data with 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution and daily temporal scale. The primary factors influencing the dataset precision are elevation and terrain complexity. In general, the gridded dataset has a relatively high precision in plains and flatlands and a relatively low precision in mountainous areas.     

Integrating stations from the North America Gravity Database into a local GPS-based land gravity survey

The ability to augment local gravity surveys with additional gravity stations from easily accessible national databases can greatly increase the areal coverage and spatial resolution of a survey. It is, however, necessary to integrate such data seamlessly with the local survey. One challenge to overcome in integrating data from national databases is that these data are typically of unknown quality. This study presents a procedure for the evaluation and seamless integration of gravity data of unknown quality from a national database with data from a local Global Positioning System (GPS)-based survey. The starting components include the latitude, longitude, elevation and observed gravity at each station location. Interpolated surfaces of the complete Bouguer anomaly are used as a means of quality control and comparison. The result is an integrated dataset of varying quality with many stations having GPS accuracy and other reliable stations of unknown origin, yielding a wider coverage and greater spatial resolution than either survey alone.     

Seasonal trends in Romanian streamflow

Mean daily streamflow records from 44 river basins in Romania with an undisturbed runoff regime have been analyzed for trends with the nonparametric Mann‐Kendall test for two periods of study: 1961–2009 (25 stations) and 1975–2009 (44 stations). The statistical significance of trends was tested for each station on an annual and seasonal basis, for different streamflow quantiles. In order to account for the presence of serial correlation that might lead to an erroneous rejection of the null hypothesis, a trend‐free prewhitening was applied to the original data series. The regional field significance of trends is tested by a bootstrap procedure. Changes in the streamflow regime in Romania are demonstrated. The main identified trends are an increase in winter and autumn streamflow since 1961 and a decrease in summer flow since 1975. The streamflow trends are well explained by recent changes in temperature and precipitation that occurred in the last 50 years. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Artificial neural network models for forecasting monthly precipitation in Jordan

Forecasting precipitation in arid and semi-arid regions, in Jordan in the Middle East for example, has particular importance since precipitation is the unique source of water in such regions. In this study, 1-month ahead precipitation forecasts are made using artificial neural network (ANN) models. Feed forward back propagation (FFBP), radial basis function (RBF) and generalized regression type ANNs are used and compared with a simple multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The models are tested on monthly total precipitation recorded at three meteorological stations (Baqura, Amman and Safawi) from different climatological regions in Jordan. For the three stations, it is found that the best calibrated model is FFBP with respect to all performance criteria used in the study, including determination coefficient, mean square error, mean absolute error, the slope and the intercept in the best-fit linear line of the scatter diagram. In the validation stage, FFBP is again the best model in Baqura and Amman. However, in Safawi, the driest station, not only FFBP but also RBF and MLR perform equally well depending on the performance criterion under consideration.     

Estimation of surface runoff and water‐covered area during filling of surface microrelief depressions

During the filling of surface microrelief depressions the precipitation excess (precipitation minus infiltration and interception) is divided between surface storage and runoff, i.e. runoff starts before the surface depressions are filled. Information on the division of precipitation excess is needed for modelling surface runoff during the filling of surface depressions. Furthermore, information on the surface of the area covered with water is needed for calculating infiltration of water stored in soil surface depressions. Thirty‐two soil surface microreliefs were determined in Danish erosion study plots. The slope was c. 10% for all plots. Data were treated initially by removing the slope, after which 20 ‘artificial’ slopes (1–20%) were introduced producing 640 new data sets. Runoff during filling of the microrelief storage was calculated for each of the 640 data sets using a model developed for calculating surface storage and runoff from grid elevation measurements. Runoff started immediately after the first addition of water for all data sets. On a field scale, however, runoff has to travel some distance as overland flow and storage in smaller and larger depressions below the runoff initiation point must be taken into consideration. The runoff increases by intermittent steps. Whenever a depression starts to overflow to the border of the plot, the runoff jumps accordingly. In spite of the jumps, the distribution between surface storage and runoff was closely related to the quotient between precipitation excess and depression storage capacity. Surface area covered with water was exponentially related to the amount of water stored in surface depressions. Models for calculating surface storage and runoff from grid elevation measurements are cumbersome and require time‐consuming measurements of the soil surface microrelief. Therefore, estimation from roughness indices requiring fewer measurements is desirable. New improved equations for such estimations are suggested. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

华北降水年代际变化特征及相关的海气异常型

利用近50年华北地区26个站逐月降水观测资料和全球大气海洋分析资料,分析了华北降水的年代际变化特征及其和全球海气系统年代际变化的关系.对华北降水距平指数变化分析表明,近50年来华北降水具有减少的总体趋势,叠加在该趋势之上的是年代际变化,其中1965年和1980年发生了两次跃变,使得20世纪80年代干旱尤为严重.在对华北地区降水年代际变化特征分析的基础上,揭示了与华北降水年代际异常相伴随的大气环流和上层海洋热力异常型.结果表明,华北降水年代际异常与太平洋上层海洋热力状况异常有显著关系,主要表现为太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）与华北降水异常的相关.在年代际时间尺度上,华北干旱与上层海洋热力及大气环流异常的配置关系如下：当华北地区干旱时,则热带中东太平洋海温偏高,北太平洋中部海温偏低,即太平洋上主要表现为PDO暖位相,全球大部分地区（包括华北地区）气温偏高,青藏高原地区气温偏低,日本北部及东西伯利亚气压异常偏低,华北及其以南大片地区气压偏高,华北地区由异常西北风控制,不利于水汽向华北地区输送.     

A new temperature based method to separate rain and snow

This paper presents the development and testing of a new method to estimate daily snowfall from precipitation and associated temperature records. The new method requires two variables; the threshold mean daily air temperature at which 50% of precipitation is considered snow, and the temperature range within which mixed precipitation can occur. Sensitivity analyses using 15 climate stations across south‐western Alberta, Canada, and ranging from prairie to alpine regions investigates the sensitivity of those two variables on mean annual snowfall (MAS), the coefficient of determination, and the MAS‐weighted coefficient of determination. Existing methods, including the static threshold method, one linear transition method used by Quick and Pipes, and the Leavesley method employed in the PRMS hydrological modelling system are compared with the new method, using a total of 963 years of daily data from the 15 climate stations used for the sensitivity analyses. Four different approaches to using the two input variables (threshold temperature and range) were tested and statistically compared: mean annual variables based on the 15 stations, mean annual variables for each station, mean monthly variables for each station, and a sine curve representing seasonal variation of the variables. In almost all cases the proposed new method resulted in higher MAS‐weighted coefficients of determination, and, on average, they were significantly different from those of other methods. The paper concludes with a decision tree to help decide which method and approach to apply under a variety of data availabilities. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Isotopic characteristics of precipitation in Slovenia and Croatia: Comparison of continental and maritime stations

The stable isotopic composition of hydrogen and oxygen (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) and tritium activity (³H) were monitored in monthly precipitation at two continental stations (Ljubljana, Zagreb) and six stations along the eastern Adriatic coasts of Slovenia and Croatia in the period 2001–2003. Mean air temperatures and amount of precipitation were also recorded.

Distinct differences in both meteorological and isotopic data between the continental and maritime stations were observed. Seasonal variations in δ¹⁸O are smaller at the maritime stations than at the continental ones due to smaller seasonal temperature variations. A good correlation between δ¹⁸O and δ²H was obtained for each station, and the local meteoric water lines are close to the Global Meteoric Water Line, with a decreasing trend of slope for the south-Adriatic stations. Good correlations between δ¹⁸O in monthly precipitation and mean monthly air temperature were observed at all stations. The slope of δ¹⁸O vs. T varied between 0.37‰ °C⁻¹ and 0.15‰ °C⁻¹. Mean ³H activity and seasonal variation of ³H activity are smaller at maritime stations than at continental ones. Additionally, ³H activity decreases in the NW–SE direction of the Adriatic coast.

The study of spatial variations over this relatively small area rich in geographical and climatic diversities showed the complexity of the isotopic composition of precipitation and the isotopic data obtained for eight stations, most of them in the karstic area along the Adriatic coast, and gave valuable information for regional hydrological investigations and modelling of isotope variability over the Mediterranean basin.     

Crustal structure of the Mizuho Plateau, East Antarctica from geophysical data

Various kinds of geophysical surveys have been carried out in the Mizuho Plateau, East Antarctica by the Japanese Antarctic Research Expeditions (JARE). The correlation between the high-level gravity anomaly and the bedrock elevation is examined along a route where both data are sufficient to permit deriving a crustal model from gravity, radio-echo sounding and explosion seismic data. The bedrock elevation usually correlates well with the high-level gravity anomaly. However, along the traverse route S-H-Z from the Syowa to Mizuho stations, the bedrock elevation has a weak negative correlation with the high-level gravity anomaly. Such a weak negative correlation is attributed to the deeper part of the crust.The crustal structure between the Syowa and Mizuho stations is modeled from the gravimetric data and the radio-echo sounding of bedrock elevations, so as to fit the P-wave velocity structure derived from the data of explosion seismic experiments. Then the structure is extended from Syowa Station seaward across Lützow-Holm Bay and from Mizuho Station southeastwards inland, where only gravimetric data are available. Thus, a crustal section about 600 km long is obtained on a margin of East Antarctica. The depth of the Moho increases by about 7 km from Syowa Station to the point Y200 (71° 46′S, 48° 56′E), about 500 km from the coast. A graben-like structure is obtained along the line across Lützow-Holm Bay. This suggests that both sides of the bay are bounded by faults.     

Error estimation and optimization of gravity surveys1

Gravity data are often acquired over long periods of time using different instruments and various survey techniques, resulting in data sets of non-uniform accuracy. As station locations are inhomogeneously distributed, gravity values are interpolated on to a regular grid to allow further processing, such as computing horizontal or vertical gradients. Some interpolation techniques can estimate the interpolation error. Although estimation of the error due to interpolation is of importance, it is more useful to estimate the maximum gravity anomaly that may have gone undetected by a survey. This is equivalent to the determination of the maximum mass whose gravity anomaly will be undetected at any station location, given the data accuracy at each station. Assuming that the maximum density contrast present in the survey area is known or can be reasonably assumed from a knowledge of the geology, the proposed procedure is as follows: at every grid node, the maximum mass whose gravity anomaly does not disturb any of the surrounding observed gravity values by more than their accuracies is determined. A finite vertical cylinder is used as the mass model in the computations. The resulting map gives the maximum detection error and, as such, it is a worst-case scenario. Moreover, the map can be used to optimize future gravity surveys: new stations should be located at, or near, map maxima. The technique is applied to a set of gravity observations obtained from different surveys made over a period of more than 40 years in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt in eastern Canada.     

Temporal trends in δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: insights from time series modelling and trend analysis

Temporal and spatial variations of stable oxygen (¹⁸O) and hydrogen (²H) isotope measurements in precipitation act as important proxies for changing hydro‐meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. Temporal trends in time series of the stable isotope composition in precipitation were rarely observed, and they are poorly understood. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here, we investigate temporal trends of δ¹⁸O in precipitation at 17 observation stations in Germany between 1978 and 2009. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series from different models can be observed. Mann–Kendall trend tests are applied on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models, which account for first and higher order serial correlations. Effects of temperature, precipitation, and geographic parameters on isotope trends are also investigated in the proposed models. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared with a trend‐free pre‐whitening procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we further explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. Overall, three out of the 17 stations show significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. The significant trends in the isotope time series generally occur only at low elevation stations. Higher order autoregressive processes are shown to be important in the isotope time series analysis. Results suggest that the widely used trend analysis with only the first order autocorrelation adjustment may not adequately take account of the high order autocorrelated processes in the stable isotope series. The investigated time series analysis method including higher autocorrelation and external climate variable adjustments is shown to be a better alternative. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional potential evapotranspiration in arid climates based on temperature,topography and calculated solar radiation

Values of evapotranspiration are required for a variety of water planning activities in arid and semi‐arid climates, yet data requirements are often large, and it is costly to obtain this information. This work presents a method where a few, readily available data (temperature, elevation) are required to estimate potential evapotranspiration (PET). A method using measured temperature and the calculated ratio of total to vertical radiation (after the work of Behnke and Maxey, 1969) to estimate monthly PET was applied for the months of April–October and compared with pan evaporation measurements. The test area used in this work was in Nevada, which has 124 weather stations that record sufficient amounts of temperature data. The calculated PET values were found to be well correlated (R²=0·940–0·983, slopes near 1·0) with mean monthly pan evaporation measurements at eight weather stations.In order to extrapolate these calculated PET values to areas without temperature measurements and to sites at differing elevations, the state was divided into five regions based on latitude, and linear regressions of PET versus elevation were calculated for each of these regions. These extrapolated PET values generally compare well with the pan evaporation measurements (R²=0·926–0·988, slopes near 1·0). The estimated values are generally somewhat lower than the pan measurements, in part because the effects of wind are not explicitly considered in the calculations, and near‐freezing temperatures result in a calculated PET of zero at higher elevations in the spring months. The calculated PET values for April–October are 84–100% of the measured pan evaporation values. Using digital elevation models in a geographical information system, calculated values were adjusted for slope and aspect, and the data were used to construct a series of maps of monthly PET. The resultant maps show a realistic distribution of regional variations in PET throughout Nevada which inversely mimics topography. The general methods described here could be used to estimate regional PET in other arid western states (e.g. New Mexico, Arizona, Utah) and arid regions world‐wide (e.g. parts of Africa). Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.