Tectonic model of seismicity for the northeastern segment of the Amur Plate in the Earth’s two-phased rotation

The spatial distribution of the epicenters and hypocenters is analyzed for earthquakes of 2 ≤ M < 6 that occurred in the northeastern segment of the Amur Plate in two phases of changes in the angular speed of the Earth’s rotation. Groups of seismic events in the magnitude interval of 5 ≤ M < 6 are distinguished in the form of NE-trending seismic clusters regularly alternating along the plane of latitude. The seismic clusters are up to 1500 km long and 180–240 km wide and cover the seismic zones with different geodynamic and seismotectonic conditions of seismicity origination. In terms of the epicentral distributions for earthquakes with 2 ≤ M < 4, seismic activity zones are distinguished; these zones are seen as seimolineaments coupling the Tan Lu seismic zones and the eastern flanks of the latitudinal seismic zones. A scheme of distinguishing the compression and extension zones from the spatial clusters of earthquakes with 5 ≤ M < 6 in two phases of changes in the angular speed of the Earth’s rotation is proposed. This scheme satisfactorily agrees with the model of seismotectonic reconstructions of the compression–extension fields and axes.     

Dynamics of seismogenerating structures in the frontal zone of the Kolyma–Omolon superterrane

To develop a model for the dynamics of seismogenerating structures in the frontal zone of the Kolyma–Omolon superterrane (Chersky seismotectonic zone), the following aspects are analyzed: structural–tectonic position, deep structure parameters, active faults, and fields of tectonic stresses as revealed from solutions of focal mechanisms of strong earthquakes and kinematic types of Late Cenozoic fold deformations and faults. It is found that a certain dynamic setting under transpressional conditions takes place and it was caused by the interaction between structures of the Eurasian, North American, and Okhotsk lithospheric plates within regional segments of the Chersky zone (Yana–Indigirka and Indigirka–Kolyma). These conditions are possible if the Kolyma–Omolon block located in the frontal zone of the North American Plate was an indenter. Due to this, some terranes of different geodynamic origin underwent horizontal shortening, under which particular blocks of segments were pushed out laterally along the orogenic belt, on a system of conjugated strike-slip faults of different directions and hierarchical series, in the northwest and southeast directions, respectively, to form the main seismogenerating reverse-fault and thrust structures with the maximum seismic potential (M ≥ 6.5).     

Tectonic setting and geological manifestations of the 2003 Altai earthquake

Geological and geomorphic manifestations of the source of the earthquake that occurred in the southern Gorny Altai on September 27, 2003, are described. This earthquake, the strongest over the entire history of seismological observations, caused damage to buildings and structures in the Chuya and Kurai basins and was accompanied by exposure of its source at the surface with formation of a system of seismic ruptures trending in the northwestern direction. The linear zone of seismic rupture was traced for more than 70 km on the northern slopes of the North Chuya and South Chuya ranges, and a developed network of related splays was found. The secondary (gravitational and vibrational) seismic dislocations were expressed as downfalls, landslides, and gryphons in the pleistoseist zone. These dislocations occur over an area of approximately 90 × 25 km² that broadly coincides with the region of quakes having intensities of IX–VII. The paleoseismogeological investigations performed in the source region of the 2003 earthquake have shown that seven seismic events with M = 7.0–8.0 occurred in its source over the last 5000 years with a 500-to 900-year recurrence period. The study of the tectonic setting of the earthquake source in the Gorny Altai has allowed northward tracing of the main seismically active zones of the Mongolian and Gobi Altai, where earthquakes with a magnitude M > 7.0 occurred repeatedly, in particular, during the 20th century, and combination of all mountain systems of the Greater Altai into a common high-magnitude seismotectonic province.     

Site response of the Ganges basin inferred from re-evaluated macroseismic observations from the 1897 Shillong, 1905 Kangra,and 1934 Nepal earthquakes

We analyze previously published geodetic data and intensity values for the M _s = 8.1 Shillong (1897), M _s = 7.8 Kangra (1905), and M _s = 8.2 Nepal/Bihar (1934) earthquakes to investigate the rupture zones of these earthquakes as well as the amplification of ground motions throughout the Punjab, Ganges and Brahmaputra valleys. For each earthquake we subtract the observed MSK intensities from a synthetic intensity derived from an inferred planar rupture model of the earthquake, combined with an attenuation function derived from instrumentally recorded earthquakes. The resulting residuals are contoured to identify regions of anomalous intensity caused primarily by local site effects. Observations indicative of liquefaction are treated separately from other indications of shaking severity lest they inflate inferred residual shaking estimates. Despite this precaution we find that intensites are 1–3 units higher near the major rivers, as well as at the edges of the Ganges basin. We find evidence for a post-critical Moho reflection from the 1897 and 1905 earthquakes that raises intensities 1–2 units at distances of the order of 150 km from the rupture zone, and we find that the 1905 earthquake triggered a substantial subsequent earthquake at Dehra Dun, at a distance of approximately 150 km. Four or more M = 8 earthquakes are apparently overdue in the region based on seismic moment summation in the past 500 years. Results from the current study permit anticipated intensities in these future earthquakes to be refined to incorporate site effects derived from dense macroseismic data.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Constantine region,Northeast of Algeria

This paper presents a seismic hazard evaluation and develops an earthquake catalogue for the Constantine region over the period from 1357 to 2014. The study contributes to the improvement of seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazards in Northeast Algeria. A regional seismicity analysis was conducted based on reliable earthquake data obtained from various agencies (CRAAG, IGN, USGS and ISC). All magnitudes (M _l, m _b) and intensities (I ₀, I _MM, I _MSK and I _EMS) were converted to M _s magnitudes using the appropriate relationships. Earthquake hazard maps were created for the Constantine region. These maps were estimated in terms of spectral acceleration (SA) at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 s. Five seismogenic zones are proposed. This new method differs from the conventional method because it incorporates earthquake magnitude uncertainty and mixed datasets containing large historical events and recent data. The method can be used to estimate the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, annual activity rate λ(M) of an event and maximum possible magnitude M _max using incomplete and heterogeneous data files. In addition, an earthquake is considered a Poisson with an annual activity rate λ and with a doubly truncated exponential earthquake magnitude distribution. Map of seismic hazard and an earthquake catalogue, graphs and maps were created using geographic information systems (GIS), the Z-map code version 6 and Crisis software 2012.     

Field evidence of Quaternary seismites in the Mostaganem-Relizane (western Algeria) region: seismotectonic implication

Northwestern Algeria, Tell Atlas chain, belongs to the converging Africa-Eurasia plate boundary. Several active faults have been previously identified and several earthquakes occurred in the past. In the present study, seismites are observed in the Quaternary deposits. The identified seismites include injection sand dykes, pillar structures, pillow structures, load-cast structures, water escape structures, sismoslumps, thixotropic wedges, and thixotropic bowls. The following arguments support their seismic origin: (i) presence of active faults able of producing strong earthquakes, (ii) the granulometric characteristics of the deposits are favorable to liquefaction, (iii) the observed features, mainly those related to water escape structures, are comparable to those observed in modern earthquakes. Therefore, such features are evidence of the occurrence of earthquakes of M?>?5.5 magnitude in this study area, which may occur in the future.     

Seismicity assessment in and around Syria based on instrumental data: application of Gumbel distributions and Gutenberg-Richter relationship

An instrumental earthquake catalog covering the time span between 1903 and 2007 and for the area bounded by 32°N–38°N and 35°E–43°E has been compiled in this research. The catalog has a magnitude of completeness (M _c ) with 3.5. Least squares and statistical probability Gumbel’s techniques with different approaches have been applied on the instrumental events in order to assess the average recurrence time periods for different earthquake magnitudes. The constants a and b of Gutenberg-Richter and the average recurrence times have been computed firstly for the study area and secondly for the central and northern parts of Dead Sea fault system. The different statistical computations using Knopoff and Kagan formalism are generally in agreement and suggest an average recurrence time of 203 years for an earthquake of magnitude 7 for the region. The occurrence of large well-documented historical earthquakes in Lebanon and western Syria, the existence of active fault segments, the absence of large earthquakes during the study period, the increasing number of the low-magnitude earthquakes, and the continued accumulation of the strain since 1900 indicate therefore the probability of an earthquake occurrence of a large magnitude. This should be permanently taken into consideration in seismic hazard assessment on the local and regional scales.     

Geoblocks Recognition and Delineation of the Earthquake Prone Areas in the Tuan Giao Area (Northwest Vietnam)

The goal of the paper is to reveal the hierarchical block structure in the Tuan Giao area (Northwest Vietnam) and, on that base, to identify areas prone to earthquakes with M ≥ 5. Four large geoblocks of the second rank have been delineated on the basis of the joint analysis of geological, geophysical, geomorphic, and remote sensing data. The second rank geoblocks have been divided into smaller sub-blocks of the third rank. The recent geodynamics of the geoblocks have been characterized using geomorphic, seismological, gravity, and GPS data.The system of the delineated geoblocks is viewed as the Geodynamic Blocks model. The areas prone to earthquakes with M ≥ 5 have been identified using the pattern recognition algorithm CORA-3. The objects of the recognition were defined as circular areas, where boundaries of the geoblocks intersect each other. The recognition results confirm high seismic potential of the study region and provide information on potential earthquake sources for seismic hazard assessment: a number of boundary intersections have been identified as areas prone to earthquakes with M ≥ 5, where events of such magnitude have not been recorded up to date. Mordern geothermal activity and anomalies of dissolved methane (up to 10000 nL/L), helium and hydrogen in the hot mineral water springs prove high permeability of the study area and its active seismo-tectonic state.     

Results of a seismic forecasting experiment for the Kamchatka region

The integral results of a seismic forecasting experiment for the powerful M > 7 earthquakes in the Kamchatka region are presented. According to the empirical scheme of the short-term earthquake prediction, since 2002 all officially recorded forecasts, including five deep-focus earthquakes in the Sea of Okhotsk, have been predicted without missing events. The specific character of the features of the earthquake preparation and the annular cloud structures that began to be observed in satellite images near the coast of Japan at the boundary of the Okhotsk plate are analyzed.     

Evaluating of the earthquake hazard parameters with Bayesian method for the different seismic source regions of the North Anatolian Fault Zone

The earthquake hazard parameters and earthquake occurrence probabilities are computed for the different regions of the North Anatolia Fault Zone (NAFZ) using Bayesian method. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M _S magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for a time period between 1900 and 2015. Only two historical earthquakes (1766, M _S = 7. 3 and 1897, M _S = 7. 0) are included in Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the near future since no large earthquake has been observed for the instrumental period. In order to evaluate earthquake hazard parameters for next 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 years, M _max (maximum regional magnitude), β value, λ (seismic activity or density) are computed for the different regions of NAFZ. The computed M _max values are changed between 7.11 and 7.89. While the highest magnitude value is calculated in the Region 9 related to Tokat-Erzincan, the lowest value in the Region 10 including the eastern of Erzincan. The “quantiles” of “apparent” and “true” magnitudes of future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years are calculated for confidence limits of probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % of the 10 different seismic source regions. The region between Tokat and Erzincan has earthquake hazard level according to the determined parameters. In this region the expected maximum earthquake size is 7.8 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years. While the regional M _max value of Marmara Region is computed as 7.61, expected maximum earthquake size is 7.37 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years.     

Seismic source characteristics in Kachchh and Saurashtra regions of Western India: <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-value and fractal dimension mapping of aftershock sequences

Seismic source characteristics in the Kachchh rift basin and Saurashtra horst tectonic blocks in the stable continental region (SCR) of western peninsular India are studied using the earthquake catalog data for the period 2006–2011 recorded by a 52-station broadband seismic network known as Gujarat State Network (GSNet) running by Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), Gujarat. These data are mainly the aftershock sequences of three mainshocks, the 2001 Bhuj earthquake (M _w 7.7) in the Kachchh rift basin, and the 2007 and 2011 Talala earthquakes (M _w ≥ 5.0) in the Saurashtra horst. Two important seismological parameters, the frequency–magnitude relation (b-value) and the fractal correlation dimension (D _c) of the hypocenters, are estimated. The b-value and the D _c maps indicate a difference in seismic characteristics of these two tectonic regions. The average b-value in Kachchh region is 1.2 ± 0.05 and that in the Saurashtra region 0.7 ± 0.04. The average D _c in Kachchh is 2.64 ± 0.01 and in Saurashtra 2.46 ± 0.01. The hypocenters in Kachchh rift basin cluster at a depth range 20–35 km and that in Saurashtra at 5–10 km. The b-value and D _c cross sections image the seismogenic structures that shed new light on seismotectonics of these two tectonic regions. The mainshock sources at depth are identified as lower b-value or stressed zones at the fault end. Crustal heterogeneities are well reflected in the maps as well as in the cross sections. We also find a positive correlation between b- and D _c-values in both the tectonic regions.     

Characteristics of ring seismicity in different depth ranges before large and great earthquakes in the Sumatra region

Characteristics of the seismicity in depth ranges 0–33 and 34–70 km before ten large and great (M _w = 7.0−9.0) earthquakes of 2000–2008 in the Sumatra region are studied, as are those in the seismic gap zones where no large earthquakes have occurred since at least 1935. Ring seismicity structures are revealed in both depth ranges. It is shown that the epicenters of the main seismic events lie, as a rule, close to regions of overlap or in close proximity to “shallow” and “deep” rings. Correlation dependences of ring sizes and threshold earthquakes magnitudes on energy of the main seismic event in the ring seismicity regions are obtained. Identification of ring structures in the seismic gap zones (in the regions of Central and South Sumatra) suggests active processes of large earthquake preparation proceed in the region. The probable magnitudes of imminent seismic events are estimated from the data on the seismicity ring sizes.     

Earthquake hazard in Northeast India — A seismic microzonation approach with typical case studies from Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city

A comprehensive analytical as well as numerical treatment of seismological, geological, geomorphological and geotechnical concepts has been implemented through microzonation projects in the northeast Indian provinces of Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city, representing cases of contrasting geological backgrounds — a hilly terrain and a predominantly alluvial basin respectively. The estimated maximum earthquakes in the underlying seismic source zones, demarcated in the broad northeast Indian region, implicates scenario earthquakes of M _W 8.3 and 8.7 to the respective study regions for deterministic seismic hazard assessments. The microzonation approach as undertaken in the present analyses involves multi-criteria seismic hazard evaluation through thematic integration of contributing factors. The geomorphological themes for Sikkim Himalaya include surface geology, soil cover, slope, rock outcrop and landslide integrated to achieve geological hazard distribution. Seismological themes, namely surface consistent peak ground acceleration and predominant frequency were, thereafter, overlaid on and added with the geological hazard distribution to obtain the seismic hazard microzonation map of the Sikkim Himalaya. On the other hand, the microzonation study of Guwahati city accounts for eight themes — geological and geomorphological, basement or bedrock, landuse, landslide, factor of safety for soil stability, shear wave velocity, predominant frequency, and surface consistent peak ground acceleration. The five broad qualitative hazard classifications — ‘low’, ‘moderate’, ‘high’, ‘moderate high’ and ‘very high’ could be applied in both the cases, albeit with different implications to peak ground acceleration variations. These developed hazard maps offer better representation of the local specific seismic hazard variation in the terrain.     

Probabilities for the occurrences of medium to large earthquakes in northeast India and adjoining region

The return periods and occurrence probabilities related to medium and large earthquakes (M _w 4.0–7.0) in four seismic zones in northeast India and adjoining region (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E) have been estimated with the help of well-known extreme value theory using three methods given by Gumbel (1958), Knopoff and Kagan (1977) and Bury (1999). In the present analysis, the return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in a specified time period and probabilities of occurrences of earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 4.0 have been computed using a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue prepared for the period between 1897 and 2007. The analysis indicates that the most probable largest annual earthquakes are close to 4.6, 5.1, 5.2, 5.5 and 5.8 in the four seismic zones, namely, the Shillong Plateau Zone, the Eastern Syntaxis Zone, the Himalayan Thrusts Zone, the Arakan-Yoma subduction zone and the whole region, respectively. The most probable largest earthquakes that may occur within different time periods have been also estimated and reported. The study reveals that the estimated mean return periods for the earthquake of magnitude M _w 6.5 are about 6–7 years, 9–10 years, 59–78 years, 72–115 years and 88–127 years in the whole region, the Arakan-Yoma subduction zone, the Himalayan Thrusts Zone, the Shillong Plateau Zone and the Eastern Syntaxis Zone, respectively. The study indicates that Arakan-Yoma subduction zone has the lowest mean return periods and high occurrence probability for the same earthquake magnitude in comparison to the other zones. The differences in the hazard parameters from zone to zone reveal the high crustal heterogeneity and seismotectonics complexity in northeast India and adjoining regions.     

Application of time- and magnitude-predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in Iran

The regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied successfully in diverse regions of the world to describe the occurrence of main shocks. In the current study, the model has been calibrated against the historical and instrumental catalog of Iranian earthquakes. The Iranian plateau is divided into 15 seismogenic provinces; then, the interevent times for strong main shocks have been determined for each one. The empirical relations reported by Papazachos et al. (Tectonophysics 271:295–323, 1997a) for the Alpine–Himalayan belt (including Iran) were adopted except for the constant terms that were calculated separately for every seismotectonic area. By using the calibrated equations developed for the study area and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shocks in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities of occurrence P(?t) of the next main shocks during next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years as well as the magnitude of the expected main shocks (M _f) have been estimated. The immediate probability (within next 10 years) of a large main shock is estimated to be high and moderate (>35 %) in all regions except zones 9 (M _f = 5.8) and 15 (M _f = 6.1). However, it should be noted that the probabilities have been estimated for different M _f values in 15 regions. Comparing the model predictions with the actual earthquake occurrence rates shows the good performance of the model for Iranian plateau.     

Seismic hazard and probability assessment of Kashmir valley,northwest Himalaya,India

Seismic hazard analysis of the northwest Himalayan belt was carried out by using extreme value theory (EVT). The rate of seismicity (a value) and recurrence intervals with the given earthquake magnitude (b value) was calculated from the observed data using Gutenberg–Richter Law. The statistical evaluation of 12,125 events from 1902 to 2017 shows the increasing trend in their inter-arrival times. The frequency–magnitude relation exhibits a linear downslope trend with negative slope of 0.8277 and positive intercept of 4.6977. The empirical results showed that the annual risk probability of high magnitude earthquake M?≥?7.7 in 50 years is 88% with recurrence period of 47 years, probability of M?≤?7.5 in 50 years is 97% with recurrence period of 27 years, and probability of M?≤?6.5 in 50 years is 100% with recurrence period of 4 years. Kashmir valley, located in the NW Himalaya, encompasses a peculiar tectonic and structural setup. The patterns of the present and historical seismicity records of the valley suggest a long-term strain accumulation along NNW and SSE extensions with the decline in the seismic gap, posing a potential threat of earthquakes in the future. The Kashmir valley is characterized by the typical lithological, tectono-geomorphic, geotechnical, hydrogeological and socioeconomic settings that augment the earthquake vulnerability associated with the seismicity of the region. The cumulative impact of the various influencing parameters therefore exacerbates the seismic hazard risk of the valley to future earthquake events.     

Climate extremes: an observation and projection of its impacts on food production in ASEAN

Multifractal behaviour of interevent time sequences is investigated for the earthquake events in the NW Himalaya, which is one of the most seismically active zones of India and experienced moderate to large damaging earthquakes in the past. In the present study, the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is used to understand the multifractal behaviour of the earthquake data. For this purpose, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of the period 1965–2013 with a magnitude of completeness M _w 4.3 is used. The analysis revealed the presence of multifractal behaviour and sharp changes near the occurrence of three earthquakes of magnitude (M _w ) greater than 6.6 including the October 2005, Muzaffarabad–Kashmir earthquake. The multifractal spectrum and related parameters are explored to understand the time dynamics and clustering of the events.     

Study of active faults: Theoretical and applied implications

Theoretical and applied implications of the study of active faults and their identification and parametrization are discussed. The term active fault is defined as a fault with displacements that occurred in the late Pleistocene and Holocene and are expected to resume in the future. The displaced young landforms, late Quaternary sediments, and man-made constructions are the main reference marks to recognize active faults and estimate their kinematics and intensity. Since the structural pattern and parameters of all active faults are referred to the same, geologically short time interval, they are important for the study of recent geodynamics and young tectogenesis on the global, regional, and local scales. The opportunities that are opened for such investigations are illustrated by verification of the real existence of the Okhotsk and Bering minor plates. With allowance for active faults, it is possible to make tectonic and geodynamic reconstructions of the past events more plausible. Natural hazards, primarily, earthquakes, are related to active faults. The geological and geomorphic assessment of the seismic potential of active fault zones is discussed with emphasis on the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes (M _max) estimated from the segmentation of the active zones, the length of particular segments (L), the empirical relationships M _max/L for strong recent earthquakes, as well as the resumption periods of strong earthquakes and measurement of particular seismogenic offsets by trenching and other techniques, including archeoseismological methods. A question is posed about possible perennial variations in the stress-and-strain state of active zones, which are expressed on the scale of large seismoactive regions in oscillations of released seismic energy and should be taken into account by assessment of the seismic hazard.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Lake Van basin,Turkey

The seismic hazard for the Lake Van basin is computed using a probabilistic approach, along with the earthquake data from 1907 to present. The spatial distribution of seismic events between the longitudes of 41–45° and the latitudes of 37.5–40°, which encompasses the region, indicates distinct seismic zones. The positions of these zones are well aligned with the known tectonic features such as the Tutak-Çald?ran fault zone, the Özalp fault zone, the Geva? fault zone, the Bitlis fault zone and Karl?ova junction where the North Anatolian fault zone and East Anatolian fault zone meet. These faults are known to have generated major earthquakes which strongly affected cities and towns such as Van, Mu?, Bitlis, Özalp, Muradiye, Çald?ran, Erci?, Adilcevaz, Ahlat, Tatvan, Geva? and Gürp?nar. The recurrence intervals of M _s ≥ 4 earthquakes were evaluated in order to obtain the parameters of the Gutenberg–Richter measurements for seismic zones. More importantly, iso-acceleration maps of the basin were produced with a grid interval of 0.05 degrees. These maps are developed for 100- and 475- year return periods, utilizing the domestic attenuation relationships. A computer program called Sistehan II was utilized to generate these maps.     

The instrumental seismicity of the Jordan Dead Sea transform

The instrumental seismicity that occurred in the Jordan Dead Sea transform region during the period 1900–2014 is compiled from all available sources. Some 492 phosphate mining explosions (M ≤ 3.9) are recognized and filtered from the data. Excluding these, it is found that 4448 earthquakes have occurred with magnitudes M ≥ 3.0. Only 572, 18 and 2 of these had magnitudes M ≥ 4, 5, and 6 in respective order. Average recurrence periods for the 5 and 6 magnitudes are 6.3 and 57 years. Much of these have occurred in sequences and swarms. The epicentral distribution of the compiled instrumental seismicity data shows very good correlation with the general tectonics of the study region. All tectonic elements are active in the present with a noticeable hazard. The regional strike-slip faults of the transform proper remain the major sources of this hazard. They account for not less than 99% of the seismic energy released from all instrumental data. The calculated a-parameter of the whole transform is 6.6. It varies for all its strike-slip faults mostly in the range 6.0–6.6. The b-value of the whole transform and some of its major segments is 1.0. Others show b-variations in the range of 1.1–1.3. Such a- and b-values imply recurrence periods of 38 years and 395 years for the 6 and 7 magnitude earthquakes. Such values, their variations and the seismic moment calculations clearly indicate an appreciable level of seismic hazard associated with all segments. This hazard appears to be highest for Al Ghab segment, followed by Beqa’a and Wadi Araba segments, respectively. The other three segments appear to be of lower hazard. The seismicity of this region is very shallow. More than 99% of the seismic energy has been released from the brittle granitic upper crust whose thickness is about 21 km and its Poisson’s ratio is 0.25. More than 93.6% of the energy was released from its upper 10 km. Very little energy is released from the underlying ductile basaltic crust whose Poisson’s ratio is 0.29. The calculated seismic slip rate along the Whole Jordan Dead Sea transform is 0.54 cm/year if the fault depth is assumed 10 km. It increases to 0.77 and 1.07 cm/year if the fault depth is reduced to 7 and 5 km, respectively. These slip rates are comparable with the long-term geologically deduced rate of 1 cm/year.