A review of SOHO/UVCS observations of sungrazing comets

In the last 10 years more than 1000 sungrazing comets have been discovered by the LASCO coronagraphs aboard SOHO the spacecraft; from this huge amount of data it has been possible to study the common origin of these comets and to explain some of the main peculiarities observed in their lightcurves. Moreover, the UV Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) aboard SOHO allowed EUV spectroscopy of sungrazers in the final stage of their trajectory (i.e. between 1.4 and 10 solar radii), but a few sungrazers have been observed with this instrument. In this paper we review the main results from the UVCS observation of sungrazers C/1996 Y1, C/2000 C6 and C/2001 C2, discussing also the first possible detection of two fragments and the determination of the pyroxene dust grain number density in the latter one. Preliminary results on the UVCS data interpretation of a sungrazer observed in 2002 (C/2002 S2) are also presented here.     

Dust Grains in the Comae and Tails of Sungrazing Comets: Modeling of Their Mineralogical and Morphological Properties

Observations of sungrazing comets, all of which belong to the Kreutz family, provide the opportunity of studying the properties of dust in the comae and tails of the comets. On the basis of available information on cometary and interplanetary dust as well as observations of dust in the tails of sungrazers, we model dust in sungrazing comets as fluffy silicate aggregates of submicrometer sizes. To better interpret observational data, we numerically calculate the solar radiation pressure, the equilibrium temperature, and the sublimation and crystallization rates of silicate grains near the Sun. Our results show that the dust tails contain aggregates of submicrometer crystal grains, but not amorphous grains, since amorphous silicates mostly crystallize after release from the comets. The peak in the lightcurves of the dust comae observed either at 11.2 or 12.3 solar radii (R_⊙) seems to result from sublimation of fluffy aggregates consisting of crystalline or amorphous olivines, respectively. We attribute an additional enhancement in the lightcurves inside 7 R_⊙ to increasing out-flow of crystalline and amorphous pyroxenes composed fluffy aggregates. According to our model, the observed lightcurves indicate a high abundance of olivine and a low abundance of pyroxene in the comets, which may bear implications about the dynamical and thermal history of the sungrazers and their progenitor.     

SOHO/SWAN observations of comets with small perihelia: C/2002 V1 (NEAT), C/2002 X5 (Kudo–Fujikawa), 2006 P1 (McNaught) and 96P/Machholz 1

SWAN, the all-sky hydrogen Lyman-alpha camera on the SOHO spacecraft, designed primarily to image the interplanetary neutral hydrogen around the Sun, also observes comets continuously over large portions of their apparitions to the north and south of the ecliptic and at small solar elongation angles. Because of SOHO’s location at the L1 Lagrange point, analysis of SWAN images provides excellent temporal coverage of water production. We report here our results of observations of some interesting target comets selected from the extensive SWAN archive. These include three Oort Cloud Comets C/2002 V1 (NEAT), C/2002 X5 (Kudo–Fujikawa), C/2006 P1 (McNaught) and three apparitions of atypical short-period Comet 96P/Machholz 1. The common aspect of these four comets is their small perihelion distances, which are 0.19, 0.09, 0.17, and 0.12 AU, respectively. Their water production rates over their whole apparitions can be approximated by power laws in heliocentric distance (r in AU) as follows: 1.3 × 10²⁹ r^−2.1 s⁻¹ for C/2002 V1 (NEAT), 7.5 × 10²⁸ r^−2.0 s⁻¹ for C/2002 X5 (Kudo–Fujikawa), 5.4 × 10²⁹ r^−2.4 s⁻¹ for C/2006 (P1 McNaught) and 4.6 × 10²⁷ r^−2.1 s⁻¹ for 96P/Machholz 1. We also present daily-average water production rates for the long-period comets over long continuous time periods. We examine these results in light of our growing survey of comets that is yielding some interesting comparisons of water production rate variations with heliocentric distance and taxonomic classes.     

A meteoroid stream survey using the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar: I. Methodology and radiant catalogue

Using a meteor orbit radar, a total of more than 2.5 million meteoroids with masses ∼10⁻⁷ kg have had orbits measured in the interval 2002-2006. From these data, a total of 45 meteoroid streams have been identified using a wavelet transform approach to isolate enhancements in radiant density in geocentric coordinates. Of the recorded streams, 12 are previously unreported or unrecognized. The survey finds >90% of all meteoroids at this size range are part of the sporadic meteoroid background. A large fraction of the radar detected streams have q<0.15 AU suggestive of a strong contribution from sungrazing comets to the meteoroid stream population currently intersecting the Earth. We find a remarkably long period of activity for the Taurid shower (almost half the year as a clearly definable radiant) and several streams notable for a high proportion of small meteoroids only, among these a strong new shower in January at the time of the Quadrantids (January Leonids). A new shower (Epsilon Perseids) has also been identified with orbital elements almost identical to Comet 96P/Machholz.     

Sungrazing Comets Discovered with the SOHO/LASCO Coronagraphs 1996-1998

The Kreutz sungrazing family of comets is unique because of its small perihelion distance and because of the large number of known members of this family. SOHO/LASCO coronagraph observations beginning in 1996 have revealed an unprecedented number of Kreutz comets. These new coronagraph observations improve upon earlier observations because of a larger field-of-view, increased image cadence, and better photometric measurements. This paper presents the lightcurves of the 141 Kreutz family comets observed from 1996 through 1998. Throughout this period, the number of family members discovered each year is shown to be constant. None of the comets were detected postperihelion. The lightcurves show distinctive characteristics which reveal much about the properties of the nuclei. It is shown that the individual fragments can be related to one of two “standard candles,” which we call Universal Curves. The comets all reach a peak brightness at one of two characteristic distances (both near 12 R_⊙) and that the comets fragment at another characteristic distance (about 7 R_⊙). Also, evidence is seen for line emission, which varies with heliocentric distance.     

Physical properties of asteroid dust bands and their sources

Disruptive collisions in the main belt can liberate fragments from parent bodies ranging in size from several micrometers to tens of kilometers in diameter. These debris bodies group at initially similar orbital locations. Most asteroid-sized fragments remain at these locations and are presently observed as asteroid families. Small debris particles are quickly removed by Poynting-Robertson drag or comminution but their populations are replenished in the source locations by collisional cascade. Observations from the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) showed that particles from particular families have thermal radiation signatures that appear as band pairs of infrared emission at roughly constant latitudes both above and below the Solar System plane. Here we apply a new physical model capable of linking the IRAS dust bands to families with characteristic inclinations. We use our results to constrain the physical properties of IRAS dust bands and their source families. Our results indicate that two prominent IRAS bands at inclinations ≈2.1° and ≈9.3° are byproducts of recent asteroid disruption events. The former is associated with a disruption of a ≈30-km asteroid occurring 5.8 Myr ago; this event gave birth to the Karin family. The latter came from the breakup of a large >100-km-diameter asteroid 8.3 Myr ago that produced the Veritas family. Using an N-body code, we tracked the dynamical evolution of ≈10⁶ particles, 1 μm to 1 cm in diameter, from both families. We then used these results in a Monte Carlo code to determine how small particles from each population undergo collisional evolution. By computing the thermal emission of particles, we were able to compare our results with IRAS observations. Our best-fit model results suggest the Karin and Veritas family particles contribute by 5-9% in 10-60-μm wavelengths to the zodiacal cloud's brightness within 50° latitudes around the ecliptic, and by 9-15% within 10° latitudes. The high brightness of the zodiacal cloud at large latitudes suggests that it is mainly produced by particles with higher inclinations than what would be expected for asteroidal particles produced by sources in the main belt. From these results, we infer that asteroidal dust represents a smaller fraction of the zodiacal cloud than previously thought. We estimate that the total mass accreted by the Earth in Karin and Veritas particles with diameters 20-400 μm is ≈15,000-20,000 tons per year (assuming 2 g cm⁻³ particles density). This is ≈30-50% of the terrestrial accretion rate of cosmic material measured by the Long Duration Exposure Facility. We hypothesize that up to ≈50% of our collected interplanetary dust particles and micrometeorites may be made up of particle species from the Veritas and Karin families. The Karin family IDPs should be about as abundant as Veritas family IDPs though this ratio may change if the contribution of third, near-ecliptic source is significant. Other sources of dust and/or large impact speeds must be invoked to explain the remaining ≈50-70%. The disproportional contribution of Karin/Veritas particles to the zodiacal cloud (only 5-9%) and to the terrestrial accretion rate (30-50%) suggests that the effects of gravitational focusing by the Earth enhance the accretion rate of Karin/Veritas particles relative to those in the background zodiacal cloud. From this result and from the latitudinal brightness of the zodiacal cloud, we infer that the zodiacal cloud emission may be dominated by high-speed cometary particles, while the terrestrial impactor flux contains a major contribution from asteroidal sources. Collisions and Poynting-Robertson drift produce the size-frequency distribution (SFD) of Karin and Veritas particles that becomes increasingly steeper closer to the Sun. At 1 AU, the SFD is relatively shallow for small particle diameters D (differential slope exponent of particles with D?100 μm is ≈2.2-2.5) and steep for D?100 μm. Most of the mass at 1 AU, as well as most of the cross-sectional area, is contributed by particles with D≈100-200 μm. Similar result has been found previously for the SFD of the zodiacal cloud particles at 1 AU. The fact that the SFD of Karin/Veritas particles is similar to that of the zodiacal cloud suggests that similar processes shaped these particle populations. We estimate that there are ≈5×¹⁰²⁴ Karin and ≈10²⁵ Veritas family particles with D>30 μm in the Solar System today. The IRAS observation of the dust bands may be satisfactorily modeled using ‘averaged’ SFDs that are constant with semimajor axis. These SFDs are best described by a broken power-law function with differential power index α≈2.1-2.4 for D?100 μm and by α?3.5 for 100 μm?D?1 cm. The total cross-sectional surface area of Veritas particles is a factor of ≈2 larger than the surface area of the particles producing the inner dust bands. The total volumes in Karin and Veritas family particles with 1 μm<D<1 cm correspond to D=11 km and D=14 km asteroids with equivalent masses ≈1.5×¹⁰¹⁸ g and ≈3.0×¹⁰¹⁸ g, respectively (assuming 2 g cm⁻³ bulk density). If the size-frequency and radial distribution of particles in the zodiacal cloud were similar to those in the asteroid dust bands, we estimate that the zodiacal cloud represents ∼3×¹⁰¹⁹ g of material (in particles with 1 μm<D<1 cm) at ±10° around the ecliptic and perhaps as much as ∼¹⁰²⁰ g in total. The later number corresponds to about a 23-km-radius sphere with 2 g cm⁻³ density.     

Sunskirting comets discovered with the LASCO coronagraphs over the decade 1996–2008

In addition to an unprecedented number of Kreutz sungrazing comets, the LASCO coronagraphs have discovered some 238 unrelated “sunskirting” comets over the 12 years from 1996 to 2008. This new class is organized in several groups, and at least two comets have further been found periodic. This article presents the photometry and the heliocentric light curves of these 238 sunskirting comets. The bulk of them exhibit a continuous increase of the brightness as the comet approaches the Sun, reach a peak before perihelion and then progressively fade with a large variety of brightness gradients. However some of them have peak brightness either at or post-perihelion, whereas a quite large number are approximately flat. Likewise for the sungrazers, we find a color effect prominent between 8 and 40R_⊙ (solar radii) which we interpret as resulting from the emission lines of the Na I doublet (D lines). We finally characterize the different groups of sunskirters on the basis of their cumulative distribution function of the peak brightness and of their fragmentation history.     

Infrared observations of Comet 81P/Wild 2 in 1997

Comet 81P/Wild 2 was observed in the thermal infrared over 6 months during its 1997 perihelion passage. The comet was most active in late February, about 3 months preperihelion; dust production declined by a factor of 3 between February and August. For the GIOTTO Halley dust size distribution, maximum dust production rate was ∼2 × 10⁶ g/s. The comet displayed a 10-μm silicate feature about 25% above the continuum, similar to several other Jupiter-family comets, but much lower than that seen in a number of Oort cloud comets.NASA’s STARDUST sample return mission will encounter P/Wild 2 98 days postperihelion in January 2004. Based on our observations at a similar point in the orbit and the Halley size distribution, we predict that the mass fluence on the spacecraft for a 150 km miss distance will be about 8 × 10⁻⁶ g/cm² for particles up to 1 cm in radius. The corresponding areal coverage will be about 10⁻⁴.     

Specific features of orbits of Kreutz dwarf comets

Angular orbital parameters of Kreutz sungrazing comets are considered. Three groups of Kreutz dwarf comets are distinguished based on the positioning of orbit poles, and the motion of fragments from group A is modeled numerically. It is found that Kreutz dwarf comets have a very large parameter А ₃ of nongravitational acceleration. This may be associated with sublimation of substances more refractory than water ice at extremely short heliocentric distances. It is demonstrated that the nongravitational acceleration of Kreutz dwarf comets is asymmetric with respect to perihelion, and the perturbing function maximum is observed ~15 min after the perihelion passage.     

On the hypothesis of the eruption origin of near-parabolic comets

The hypothesis on the genetic connection of near-parabolic comets with Jupiter, Saturn, and the transPlutonian region (5–3000 AU) proposed by E.M. Drobyshevskii is considered. It has been shown that, on average, 5.6 comets per an area of 10⁶ AU² passed through the transPlutonian region during the whole history of observations. Six-hundred nineteen comets crossed the ecliptic at heliocentric distances ranging from 0 to 2 AU. As has been shown, from the total number of 945 near-parabolic comets, eight comets closely approached Jupiter and five closely approached Saturn. The Kreutz comets, 1277 objects, did not approach Jupiter closer than 3 AU. Their minimal distance to Saturn was 5.5 AU. The minimal distance of the Kreutz comets from the edge of the transPlutonian region was 28.8 AU. The analysis led to the conclusion that the concept on the origin of the near-parabolic comets suggested by Drobyshevskii is groundless.     

Secular light curves of comets, II: 133P/Elst-Pizarro, an asteroidal belt comet

We present the secular light curve (SLC) of 133P/Elst-Pizarro, and show ample and sufficient evidence to conclude that it is evolving into a dormant phase. The SLC provides a great deal of information to characterize the object, the most important being that it exhibits outburst-like activity without a corresponding detectable coma. 133P will return to perihelion in July of 2007 when some of our findings may be corroborated. The most significant findings of this investigation are: (1) We have compiled from 127 literature references, extensive databases of visual colors (37 comets), rotational periods and peak-to-valley amplitudes (64 comets). 2-Dimensional plots are created from these databases, which show that comets do not lie on a linear trend but in well defined areas of these phase spaces. When 133P is plotted in the above diagrams, its location is entirely compatible with those of comets. (2) A positive correlation is found between cometary rotational periods and diameters. One possible interpretation suggest the existence of rotational evolution predicted by several theoretical models. (3) A plot of the historical evolution of cometary nuclei density estimates shows no trend with time, suggesting that perhaps a consensus is being reached. We also find a mean bulk density for comets of 〈ρ〉=0.52±0.06 g/cm³. This value includes the recently determined spacecraft density of Comet 9P/Tempel 1, derived by the Deep Impact team. (4) We have derived values for over 18 physical parameters, listed in the SLC plots, Figs. 6-9. (5) The secular light curve of 133P/Elst-Pizarro exhibits a single outburst starting at +42±4 d (after perihelion), peaking at LAG=+155±10 d, duration 191±11 d, and amplitude 2.3±0.2 mag. These properties are compatible with those of other low activity comets. (6) To explain the large time delay in maximum brightness, LAG, two hypothesis are advanced: (a) the existence of a deep ice layer that the thermal wave has to reach before sublimation is possible, or (b) the existence of a sharp polar active region pointing to the Sun at time = LAG, that may take the form of a polar ice cap, a polar fissure or even a polar crater. The diameter of this zone is calculated at ∼1.8 km. (7) A new time-age is defined and it its found that T-AGE = 80 cy for 133P, a moderately old comet. (8) We propose that the object has its origin in the main belt of asteroids, thus being an asteroid-comet hybrid transition object, an asteroidal belt comet (ABC), proven by its large density. (9) Concerning the final evolutionary state of this object, to be a truly extinct comet the radius must be less than the thermal wave depth, which at 1 AU is ∼250 m (at the perihelion distance of 133P the thermal wave penetrates only ∼130 m). Comets with radius larger than this value cannot become extinct but dormant. Thus we conclude that 133P cannot evolve into a truly extinct comet because it has too large a diameter. Instead it is shown to be entering a dormant phase. (10) We predict the existence of truly extinct comets in the main belt of asteroids (MBA) beginning at absolute magnitude ∼21.5 (diameter smaller than ∼190 m). (11) The object demonstrates that a comet may have an outburst of ∼2.3 mag, and not show any detectable coma. (12) Departure from a photometric R⁺² law is a more sensitive method (by a factor of 10) to detect activity than star profile fitting or spectroscopy. (13) Sufficient evidence is presented to conclude that 133P is the first member of a new class of objects, an old asteroidal belt comet, ABC, entering a dormant phase.     

A thermal modelling of cometary activity with a crystallized water ice nucleus

Arguments are presented to suggest that surface layers of the nuclei of periodic comets consist of crystallized rather than amorphous water ice and thermal modelling of such nuclei is presented. The rate of sublimation of water from a rotating nucleus is found to be greater than that from a uniformly heated nucleus. When the model is applied to P/Halley, the sublimation rate at perihelion is found to be 8.1 × 10²⁹ mol s⁻¹ for a nucleus rotating with a period of 50 hours and 7.6 × 10²⁹ for a uniformly heated nucleus on the premise that the effective radius of the nucleus is 2.5 km. The total sublimation of water per revolution is 5.38 × 10³⁶ molecules for P/Halley and 3.91 × 10³⁶ molecules per P/Crommelin. The result so obtained is discussed in relation to the observational data.     

The influence of the nucleus shape on the maximum size of grains ejected from a comet by gentle sublimation and jet‐like features

This paper deals with obtaining the maximum size of cometary grains ejected from nuclei of different shapes. Two mechanisms in terms of grain ejection from comets are taken into consideration. The first one is dragging of particles by outflowing gas molecules released by gentle sublimation from the comets. The second one is related with gas jets from the cavities in a nucleus by cometary jet‐like phenomena. We focused on ellipsoidal shapes of cometary nuclei but with different flattening. Calculations have been carried out for a large range of cometary parameters. It has been shown that for fixed mass of the nucleus the maximum size of grains is an increasing function of the nucleus flattening. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Solar flare track densities in interplanetary dust particles: The determination of an asteroidal versus cometary source of the zodiacal dust cloud

Dust particles that are larger than 1 μm, when injected into the Solar System from comets and asteroids, will spiral into the Sun due to the Poynting-Robertson effect. During the process of spiraling in, such dust particles accumulate solar flare tracks in their component minerals. The accumulated track density for a given dust grain is a function of the duration of its space exposure and its distance from the Sun. Using a computer model, it was determined that the expected track density distributions from grains produced by comets are very different from those produced by asteroids. Individual asteroids produce populations of particles that arrive at 1 AU with scaled track density distributions containing “spikes,” while comets supply particles with a flatter and wider distribution of track densities. Particles with track densities above 3 × 10⁷ (sϱA/v) tracks/cm² have probably been exposed to solar flare tracks prior to injection into the interplanetary medium and are therefore likely to be asteroidal. Particles with track densities below 0.7 × 10⁷(sϱA/v) tracks/cm² must be derived from comets or Earth-crossing asteroids. Earth-crossing asteroids are not responsible for all the dust collected at 1 AU since they cannot produce the large track densities observed in some of the interplanetary dust particles collected in the stratosphere. The track densities observed in the stratospheric dust fall within the predicted range, but there is at present an insufficient number of carefully determined densities to make strong statements about the sources of the present dust population.     

Dust tail of the active distant Comet C/2003 WT42 (LINEAR) studied with photometric and spectroscopic observations

We present the study of dust environment of dynamically new Comet C/2003 WT42 (LINEAR) based on spectroscopic and photometric observations. The comet was observed before and after the perihelion passage at heliocentric distances from 5.2 to 9.5 AU. Although the comet moved beyond the zone where water ice sublimation could be significant, its bright coma and extended dust tail evidenced the high level of physical activity. Afρ values exceeded 3000 cm likely reaching its maximum before the perihelion passage. At the same time, the spectrum of the comet did not reveal molecular emission features above the reflected continuum. Reddening of the continuum derived from the cometary spectrum is nonlinear along the dispersion with the steeper slop in the blue region. The pair of the blue and red continuum images was analyzed to estimate a color of the comet. The mean normalized reflectivity gradient derived from the innermost part of the cometary coma equals to 8% per 1000 Å that is typical for Oort cloud objects. However, the color map shows that the reddening of the cometary dust varies over the coma increasing to 15% per 1000 Å along the tail axis. The photometric images were fitted with a Monte Carlo model to construct the theoretical brightness distribution of the cometary coma and tail and to investigate the development of the cometary activity along the orbit. As the dust particles of distant comets are expected to be icy, we propose here the model, which describes the tail formation taking into account sublimation of grains along their orbits. The chemical composition and structure of these particles are assumed to correspond with Greenberg’s interstellar dust model of comet dust. All images were fitted with the close values of the model parameters. According to the results of the modeling, the physical activity of the comet is mainly determined by two active areas with outflows into the wide cones. The obliquity of the rotation axis of the nucleus equals to 20° relative to the comet’s orbital plane. The grains occupying the coma and tail are rather large amounting to 1 mm in size, with the exponential size distribution of a^−4.5. The outflow velocities of the dust particles vary from a few centimeters to tens of meters per second depending on their sizes. Our observations and the model findings evidence that the activity of the nucleus decreased sharply to a low-level phase at the end of April–beginning of May 2007. About 190 days later, in the first half of November 2007 the nucleus stopped any activity, however, the remnant tail did not disappear for more than 1.5 years at least.     

Photometric investigations of distant comets C/2002 VQ94 (LINEAR) and 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann-1

We present an analysis of the results of photometric investigations of two distant comets, C/2002 VQ94 (LINEAR) and 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann-1, obtained with the 6-m telescope of the Special Astrophysical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The comets under study demonstrate sufficient activity out of the zone of water ice sublimation (at heliocentric distances longer than 5 AU). In the spectra of the investigated comets, we found the CO⁺ and N₂⁺ emission. The presence of this emission may say that the comets were formed in the outer parts of the Solar System, in a protoplanetary cloud at a temperature ≤25 K. We found that the photometric maximum of the ionosphere (in the CO⁺ filter) of the comet C/2002 VQ94 (LINEAR) is shifted relative to the photometric center of the dust coma by 1.4″ (7.44 × 10³ km) in the direction deflected by 63° from the direction to the Sun. Using special filters to process the images, we picked out active structures (jets) in the dust coma of the 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann-1 comet.     

The frequency and intensity of comet showers from the Oort cloud

We simulate the Oort comet cloud to study the rate and properties of new comets and the intensity and frequency of comet showers. An ensemble of ∼10⁶ comets is perturbed at random times by a population of main sequence stars and white dwarfs that is described by the Bahcall-Soneira Galaxy model. A cloning procedure allows us to model a large ensemble of comets efficiently, without wasting computer time following a large number of low eccentricity orbits. For comets at semimajor axis a = 20,000 AU, about every 100 myr a star with mass in the range 1M_⊙−2M_⊙ passes within ∼10,000 AU of the Sun and triggers a shower that enhances the flux of new comets by more than a factor of 10. The time-integrated flux is dominated by the showers for comets with semimajor axes less than ∼30,000 AU. For semimajor axes greater than ∼30,000 AU the comet loss rate is roughly constant and strong showers do not occur. In some of our simulations, comets are also perturbed by the Galactic tidal field. The inclusion of tidal effects increases the loss rate of comets with semimajor axes between 10,000 and 20,000 AU by about a factor of 4. Thus the Galactic tide, rather than individual stellar perturbations, is the dominant mechanism which drives the evolution of the Oort cloud.     

The scattered disk as a source of Halley-type comets

We investigate a new dynamical mechanism for producing Halley-type comets from the scattered disk of comets. Levison and Duncan [Levison, H., Duncan, M., 1997. Icarus 127, 13-32] and Duncan and Levison [Duncan, M., Levison, H., 1997. Science 276, 1670-1672] showed that a significant number of objects leave the scattered disk by evolving to semi-major axes greater than 1000 AU. We find that once these objects reach semi-major axes on the order of ¹⁰⁴ AU, a significant fraction immediately have their perihelia driven inward by the galactic tides. Approximately 0.01% of the objects that reach ¹⁰⁴ AU then evolve onto orbits similar to the observed Halley-like comets due to gravitational interactions with the giant planets. The orbital element distribution resulting from this process is statistically consistent with observations. We discuss the implications of this model for the number of objects in the scattered disk in the text. The model predicts a temporal variation in the influx of HTCs with a period of ∼118 Myr. At the peak, the model predicts that there should be roughly 10 times as many HTCs as currently observed (i.e., there should be weak HTC showers). However, the model may inflate the importance of these showers because it does not include the effects of passing stars and giant molecular clouds.     

Modelling of Shape Changes of the Nuclei of Comets C/1995 O1 Hale–Bopp and 46P/Wirtanen Caused by Water Ice Sublimation

The aim of this modelling work is to assess shape changes of cometary nuclei caused by sublimation of ices. The simplest possible model is assumed with the nucleus being initially spherical and its thermal conductivity being neglected. We have calculated the time-dependent sublimation flux versus cometographic latitude. If the rotation axis of the comet is inclined to the orbital plane, then sublimation leads to non-symmetrical changes of the nucleus shape. Calculations were performed for the nuclei of comets Hale–Bopp and Wirtanen.