A comparison of Indian and African monsoon variability at different time scales

A review is given of the summer monsoon systems in Africa and India, and of their comparison at different time scales. Features of the circulation are described first, including the main respective meteorological centres of action controlling the annual cycle of the rain bands over these two regions. The main elements of the atmospheric intraseasonal variability are then presented, which controls in particular the onset of these two monsoon systems. Then the sensitivity of these two monsoon systems to oceanic and continental surface conditions in the context of interannual variability is discussed and compared. Consequences in term of predictability are commented. Finally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC4) scenarios of the future climate over these two regions are presented.     

Identifying flood-prone landfills at different spatial scales

Landfills are mainly located in lowland areas close to settlements inducing flood risk of potential environmental contamination and adverse health effects. During recent flood events, numerous landfill sites were reportedly exposed to inundations, leading to erosion of landfilled material and release of pollutants threatening humans and the environment. Although emissions from landfills under regular operating conditions are well investigated, the behaviour and associated emissions in case of flooding are widely unknown. To enable environmental risk management, flood-prone landfills must be identified to establish priorities for subsequent protection and mitigation measures. This paper presents two flood risk assessment approaches at different spatial scales: a macro-scale assessment approach (MaSA) and a micro-scale assessment approach (MiSA). Both methodologies aim to determine the proportion of landfills endangered by flooding, and evaluate the impacts. The latter are expressed by means of risk categories (minor to serious) of impacts that flooded sites might have on humans and the environment. The evaluation of 1,064 landfills in Austria based on MaSA yields roughly 30 % of landfills located within or close to flood risk zones. Material inventories of 147 sites exposed to flooding are established, and potential emissions during a flood event are estimated. Three representative case study areas are selected and investigated in detail by applying the MiSA approach based on 2D hydrodynamic models to calculate flow depths and shear stress and by developing emission scenarios to validate the macro-scale screening approach (MaSA). The applications of MiSA and MaSA outlines that hazardous emissions due to flooding can lead to significant impacts on the environment. Uncertainty associated with related processes and data sources is considerably high. Nevertheless, both MiSA and MaSA provide a decision support tool to identify landfills with imminent risk for humans and the environment. Therefore, the described methodologies provide toolsets to enable environmental risk reduction by applying a priority-ranked flood risk management.     

Impact of the hydrological cycle on past climate changes: three illustrations at different time scales

We investigate in the paper the impact of the hydrologic cycle on climate at different periods. The aim is to illustrate how the changes in moisture transport, precipitation pattern, and weathering may alter, at regional or global scales, the CO₂ and climate equilibriums. We choose three climate periods to pinpoint intricate relationships between water cycle and climate. The illustrations are the following. (i) The onset of ice-sheet build-up, 115 kyr BP. We show that the increased thermal meridian gradient of SST allows large moisture advection over the North American continent and provides appropriate conditions for perennial snow on the Canadian Archipelago. (ii) The onset of Indian Monsoon at the end of the Tertiary. We demonstrate that superimposed to the Tibetan Plateau, the shrinkage of the Tethys, since Oligocene, plays a major role to explain changes in the geographical pattern of the southeastern Asian Monsoon. (iii) The onset of Global Glaciation (750 Ma). We show that the break-up of Rodinia occurring at low latitudes is an important feature to explain how the important precipitation increase leads to weathering and carbon burial, which contribute to decrease atmospheric CO₂ enough to produce a snows ball Earth. All these periods have been simulated with a hierarchy of models appropriate to quantify the water cycle impact on climate. To cite this article: G. Ramstein et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

开合构造在不同时空尺度下的地学表现

开合构造是研究地球开合运动及其构造特征,分析开合构造体系的形成机制,探索地球成因和演化的一种新假说。不同时空尺度的开合构造在地学上存在不同的表现,需要从不同角度开展研究。以亚欧非邻区巨型开合构造区、地中海大型开合构造区、东大别中型开合构造区为例,研究了开合构造理论在大地构造分区、地震活动以及现代大地测量结果解释等方面的应用。研究表明:(1)依据开合构造观点可将亚欧非邻区巨型开合构造划分为俄罗斯构造集群、非洲构造集群、北亚构造集群、中亚构造集群、南亚构造集群及东亚构造集群;(2)亚欧非邻区的强地震活动与构造集群间的新生代开合构造转换带关系密切;(3)地中海大型开合构造区内的地震剖面及震源机制揭示了地中海—土耳其—伊朗—阿富汗构造转换带现今构造运动主要以合为主;(4)东大别中型开合构造周边的狮子山、黄梅、麻城等台站的地倾斜和地应变、周边GNSS和流动重力观测结果揭示了该区周边存在时间尺度较短、量级较弱的由“合”向“开”的趋势转变,开合运动是近期诸多观测数据趋势出现准同步性变化的共同机理。     

On different time scales of suspended matter dynamics in the Weser estuary

Long-term observations in the Weser estuary (Germany) between 1983 and 1997 provide insight into the response of the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) under a wide range of conditions. In this estuary the turbidity zone is closely tied to the mixing zone, and the positions of the ETM and the mixing zone vary with runoff. The intratidal suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations vary due to deposition during slack water periods, subsequent resubsequent and depletion of temporarily-formed and spatially-limited deposits during the following ebb or flood, and subsequent transport by tidal currents. The corresponding time history of SPM concentrations is remarkably constant over the years. Spring tide SPM concentrations can be twice the neap tide concentrations or even larger. A hysteresis in SPM levels between the falling and rising spring-neap cycle is attributed to enhanced resuspension by the stronger spring tidal currents. There is evidence that the ETM is pushed up-estuary during times of higher mean water levels due to storms. During river floods the ETM is flushed towards the outer estuary. If river floods and their decreasing parts occur during times of relatively high mean water levels, the ETM seems to be maintained in the outer estuary. If river floods and their decreasing parts occur during times of relatively low mean water levels, the ETM seems to loose inventory and may need up to half a year of non-event conditions to gain its former magnitude. During this time seasonal effects may be involved. Analyses of storm events and river floods have revealed that the conditions in the seaward boundary region play an equally important role for the SPM dynamics as those arising from the river.     

Field examples of variations in fault patterns at different scales

Three field examples are presented which show changes in fault patterns at different scales. Normal faults in Jurassic limestones in Somerset consist of zones of sub-parallel segments at the exposure-scale, but contain complex zones of brecciation at the decimetre-scale. Normal faults in chalk at Flamborough Head consist of a complex network of small faults which accommodate strain between a set of large faults. The different-sized faults at Flamborough Head have different geometries and histories, with the larger faults showing a phase of reverse reactivation. The faulting in the Sydney Basin, Australia, can be explained in terms of the evolution and reactivation of transfer zones between overstepping faults. These transfer zones can cause the deformation to appear to be more complex as the analysis becomes more detailed.
Much recent work on the scaling relationslups of faults assumes that self-similar fault patterns occur over a wide range of scales. The data presented in this paper, however, suggest that there are problems in using the deformation pattern at one scale to infer deformation at other scales. Ideally, any analysis should involve the study of a wide range of scales to overcome these problems.     

Applicability of landslide susceptibility and hazard zoning at different scales

Landslide susceptibility and hazard zoning can notably improve land-use planning, and thus can be considered an efficient way to reduce future damage and loss of lives caused by landslides. However, the lack of standard procedures restricts the use of susceptibility and hazard-zoning maps, notwithstanding their extensive development over the last decades.JTC-1, the Joint Technical Committee on Landslides and Engineered Slopes, fills this void by proposing International Guidelines for Landslide Susceptibility, Hazard and Risk Zoning for land-use planning, which provide definitions, terminology and international standards for methods, levels, scales and types of zoning. The Guidelines also promote the use of quantitative risk-management principles, essential to compare risk from landslides with risks related to other hazards and with loss of life tolerance criteria.This paper focuses on the applicability of landslide susceptibility and hazard zoning at different scales. Several zoning examples, referring to active, dormant and occasionally reactivated slides, provide insights into and highlight the relationships among different methods, levels and types of zoning. The examples also stress the importance of a correct characterization of the processes leading to landsliding to produce reliable susceptibility and hazard-zoning maps.     

The comparison analysis of Chinese public perception of earthquakes on different time scales

China has suffered from severe earthquake disasters in recent years. In order to explore the impact of severe earthquakes on public risk perception on different time scales, four surveys were conducted twice each after the severe Wenchuan and Yushu earthquakes. t tests were performed between two consecutive surveys to explore the change of public risk attitudes. The results demonstrated that after the two severe earthquakes, the public seismic risk acceptance has increased over time, and the comparison between pre- and post-Yushu earthquake illustrated that the severe disaster had more impact on vulnerable population such as females, children and low-income people. Moreover, linear regression models were employed to find the determining factors of public acceptance towards earthquake risks. It was discovered that the public perceived earthquake effect had significant negative relationship with seismic risk acceptance, and public trust towards local government had positive relationship with the risk acceptance. This study could help government to gain better understanding of public mental status and take more effective disaster preparedness measures when preventing and responding to a severe earthquake.     

不同环节灌溉用水效率及节水潜力分析

以漳河灌区为例,在对灌区渠系进行等效概化的基础上,采用经验公式法进行不同工况下不同环节灌溉用水效率的分析计算.结果表明总干及干渠环节和分、斗、农渠环节的渠道水利用系数较大,而支干、分干和支渠环节的渠道水利用系数偏小,渠道断面大小、长度及防渗率是导致渠道水利用系数差异的主要原因.计算分析了不同条件下的灌溉用水效率阈值,达到相应阈值时的投资,以及净节水量和节水率,分析了投资与灌溉用水效率阈值及节水率的关系.表明随投资的增加灌溉用水效率及节水率均提高,但其过程符合报酬递减规律,且节水率的报酬递减速度更快.     

灌溉水利用效率随尺度变化规律分布式模拟

为评价农田灌溉水利用状况并揭示灌溉水利用效率的尺度变化规律,应用改进的分布式水文模型(SWAT)模拟了漳河灌区三干渠灌域的水循环过程和作物产量。以子流域嵌套方式将研究区划分为9个尺度来计算灌溉水利用效率指标,并分析其随尺度变化的特征及原因。结果表明,灌溉水分生产率受降雨、气候条件的时空分布特征影响较大,而且随尺度增大明显,其尺度关系可以近似应用幂函数描述,函数的形式和参数与分形思想接近。排水率在中等尺度上的数值最大,但随尺度变化不显著。因此,在一定精度条件下,灌溉水分生产率的尺度转换模式可以尝试应用幂函数形式。漳河灌区在中等尺度上的节水潜力最大。     

不同时间尺度氢氧稳定同位素效应的比较——以长沙降水为例

基于长沙2010年1月~2019年12月日降水中氢、氧稳定同位素以及相应日平均温度和日降水量的监测数据,利用数理统计方法对该站在日、月、年三类时间尺度下以及在不同降水强度条件下的降水中δ¹⁸O与降水量、δ¹⁸O与温度之间的关系以及局地大气水线（LMWL）变化特征进行分析和比较,其目的在于揭示在不同时间尺度下和不同降水强度条件下降水中稳定同位素效应的差异,深化对季风区降水稳定同位素变化规律的认识。结果表明：在长沙,降水中δ¹⁸O的变化范围随时间尺度的增大而减小;在日时间尺度下,降水量效应稳定存在,受雨滴下降过程中蒸发富集的影响,5.0 mm/d以下的小降水事件明显改变δ¹⁸O-P回归线的斜率。在月和年时间尺度下,降水中稳定同位素均不存在显著的降水量效应;在雨热同期的气候背景下,除冷半年外,在日和月时间尺度下,降水中δ¹⁸O与温度均存在显著的负相关关系。在年时间尺度下,降水中年加权平均δ¹⁸O与温度之间不存在显著的相关关系;对应于不同的时间尺度、不同的季节和不同的降水强度,LMWL均具有显著的差异。在日和月的时间尺度下,冷半年LMWL的斜率和截距分别小于和大于暖半年LMWL的斜率和截距,且随降水强度的增加呈先明显增加（日时间尺度在5.0 mm/d以下,月时间尺度在50.0 mm/month以下）、然后保持基本不变的态势。在年时间尺度下,冷半年LMWL的斜率和截距均大于暖半年。

     

Variations in long term wind speed during different decades in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

A study has been carried out by comparing the extreme wind speeds estimated based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 100 years return period using Fischer Tippet-1 (commonly known as Gumbel) and Weibull distributions for three locations (off Goa, Visakhapatnam and Machilipatnam) in the north Indian Ocean. The wind dataset for Goa is compared with that from ERA-40 data. For higher wind speeds (12–20m s⁻¹), NCEP wind speed has higher percentage of occurrence than that of ERA-40. Analysis has shown slight upward trend in the annual maximum wind for location off Machilipatnam with an increase of 1.2 cm s⁻¹ per year and a decreasing trend of −1.3 cm s⁻¹ per year in the case of Goa. The Weibull distribution with shape parameter 2 fits the annual maximum wind data better than FT-1 distribution.     

Hydro-salinity balance and mobilization in oasis irrigation areas at two different scales

Decades of intensive irrigation of farmlands in the oasis irrigated areas of Xinjiang, Northwest China has caused secondary salinization of vast areas of land since the mid-1980s. Based on the systematic analysis of the monitoring data of hydrology, soil, irrigation and salinity at two different scales in the case of Weigan River Plain Oasis in Xinjiang Province, algorithms derived from hydrosalinity balance principle were developed to estimate the salt mobilization and characteristics; salt and water mobilization and distribution were closely examined both in catchment scale and in field scale. The critical ratio of drainage to irrigation of Weigan River Plain Oasis was estimated to be 9.19%. Furthermore, analysis of the relationship between the two different scaling issues was illustrated. Finally, corresponding countermeasures for secondary soil salinization were proposed according to the different developmental stages and salinization status of water and soil resources.The findings of this paper is helpful in controlling the local hydrology, in limiting or diminishing salinization trends, as well as in providing academic and instructive meaning for the sustainable development of agriculture in oasis irrigation areas.     

Multiple time scales in rainfall variability

Monthly rainfall data averaged over a selected number of stations in peninsular Malaysia with a long record was subjected to singular spectrum analysis to determine the different modes of fluctuations in the rainfall. The analysis highlights the presence of fluctuations in the QBO time scale to a very long term time scale of 18–5 years which is possibly linked to lunar tidal forcing. There is also evidence of the Malaysian rainfall responding to El-Nino Southern Oscillation. An oscillation with a 7 to 10 year cycle is also evident. The annual cycle as a regular periodic oscillation is well established by the SSA.     

考虑不同尺度孔隙压缩敏感性的砂岩渗透特性研究

以往的研究多是从宏观层面建立孔隙压缩敏感性与渗透率之间的关系,缺乏砂岩不同尺度孔隙结构改变对渗透率演化规律的认识。从细观孔隙层面来看,不同尺度孔隙在应力作用下闭合程度差异明显,考虑不同尺度下孔隙压缩敏感性对准确预测渗透率演化至关重要。因此,利用多场耦合核磁共振试验平台开展了砂岩渗流-应力耦合试验,获得了不同应力作用下砂岩渗透率以及孔径分布曲线的变化规律,将孔径分成大孔(>1μm)、中孔(0.1～lμm)、小孔(<0.1μm)3类,计算了砂岩不同尺度孔隙压缩系数及其转化因子,提出了考虑不同尺度孔隙压缩敏感性的砂岩渗透率计算公式。结果发现:砂岩不同尺度孔隙的压缩性差异明显,大尺度孔隙的压缩敏感性更强;考虑不同尺度孔隙压缩敏感性的渗透率公式与试验值具有较好的一致性。     

Effect of translate speed of typhoon on wind waves

Natural Hazards - Quantitative assessments on the effect of translate speed of typhoons on wind waves were carried out. A WRF-SWAN coupled model that used observed meteorological data was applied...     

Geostatistical analysis of soil moisture measurements and remotely sensed data at different spatial scales

The European remote sensing satellite (ERS-2) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data was used for temporal monitoring of soil moisture at Sukhothai, Thailand. Higher correlations were found between the observed soil moisture and the radar backscattering coefficient. The soil moisture distribution shows great variation in space and time due to its stochastic nature. In order to obtain a better understanding of the nature and causes of spatial variation of soil moisture, the extensive soil moisture measurements observed in Thailand and also remotely sensed ERS-2 SAR data were used for geostatistical analysis. The observed soil moisture shows seasonal variations with mean varying from 3.33 %v/v (dry season) to 33.44 %v/v (wet season). The spatial geostatistical structure also shows clear seasonal variations in the geostatistical characteristics such as range and sill. The sills vary from 1.00 (%v/v)² for the driest day to 107.57 (%v/v)² for one of the wet days. The range or the correlation lengths varies between 46.5 and 149.8 m for the wettest and driest periods. The nugget effect does not show strong seasonal pattern or trend but the dry periods usually have a smaller nugget effect than the wet periods. The spherical variogram model fits the sample variograms very well in the case of soil moisture observations while the exponential model fits those of the remotely sensed data. The ranges observed from the observed soil moisture data and remotely sensed data at the same resolution are very similar. Resolution degradation affects the geostatistical structure of the data by reducing the sills, and increasing the ranges.     

In situ and laboratory investigations of fluid flow through an argillaceous formation at different scales of space and time, Tournemire tunnel, southern France

In the context of a research and development program on waste disposal, an experimental site (Tournemire tunnel, Aveyron, France) was selected by the French Institute for Nuclear Protection and Safety (IPSN) in order to undertake studies on potential fluid flow at different scales of space and time within a 250-m-thick argillaceous formation. The argillite has a low natural water content (~3–5%) and very low radii access porosity. Diffusion (tritiated water) coefficients (1×10^–12 to 2×10^–11 m²/s) and hydraulic conductivities derived from different types of laboratory tests (10^–14 to 10^–13 m/s) are characteristics of a very low-permeable rock. In situ hydraulic tests (including long-term hydraulic-head measurements) were used to obtain values for hydraulic head and hydraulic conductivity at a scale of 1–10 m (10^–13 to 10^–11 m/s). Despite uncertainties on these data (due to a scale factor, presence of fissures, and possible artefacts due to hydro-chemo-mechanical coupling), it is expected that fluid flow is essentially governed by diffusion processes. Identification of possible natural flows at larger scales of time and space was investigated using natural isotopic tracers from interstitial fluids. Modelling, based on the deuterium profile along the clay formation and assuming pure diffusion processes, provides estimations of possible flow times. However, lack of knowledge concerning the past geological evolution of the site and the possible role of a fracture network do not permit reduction of uncertainties on these estimations at this stage. Electronic Publication     

1961-2013年新疆不同时间尺度降水量的气候特征及其历史演变规律

利用新疆1961-2013年资料完整的89个气象观测站降水量资料, 应用数理统计、线性趋势、突变、小波分析等方法, 对新疆降水量的时空分布和变化特征以及突变性、周期性特征进行了分析. 结果表明: 新疆年降水量空间分布极不均匀, 大值区分布主要在天山山区及其两侧; 降水集中出现在春末至夏季, 其中, 7月在全年所占比例最大. 新疆及其各分区年降水量与降水量距平百分率均呈显著增加趋势, 不同于中国大部分区域同期呈显著减少或无明显线性变化趋势的现象, 增加速率与年降水量有关, 同时年际波动及阶段性变化明显; 四季降水量增加趋势的显著性不如年降水量, 空间分布上年和四季降水量均表现为大部分地区呈增加趋势, 且增加趋势冬季 > 夏季 > 春季 > 秋季. 新疆及天山山区年降水量在1987年发生了突变, 北疆在1984年发生了突变, 而南疆在1981-1986年期间发生了突变; 新疆及北疆年降水量具有3 a、6 a、8 a、11 a、18 a的波动周期, 天山山区存在6 a与10 a的震荡周期, 南疆波动周期为5 a、8 a、18 a, 四季降水量也存在不同的波动周期.