Hierarchy of earthquakes in the Baikal rift system: implications for lithospheric stress

We investigated space-time lithospheric stress patterns of the Baikal rift system according to the hierarchy of earthquakes using mechanisms of 265 K_P ≥ 10 events recorded from 1950 to 1998 and seismic moments of 802 K_P ≥ 11 events from 1968 to 1994. The lithosphere of the region was confirmed to undergo rifting with mostly normal-slip events, while local areas of frequent strike-slip and reverse motions may record stress heterogeneity. The dominance of rifting, although being evident in the stress dynamics, is unstable, which is indicated by increase in strike-slip and reverse motions to as many as normal slip events in the latest 1980s–earliest 1990s. The lithospheric stress patterns inferred from seismic-moment data are generally consistent with those derived from the classical focal mechanism method. The suggested approach of seismic zoning according to earthquake slip geometry may provide a more reliable background for successful mitigation of seismic hazard in the region.     

Energy flux of strong earthquakes

In this paper, the energy flux of strong earthquakes at a station is determined considering the progressive rupture of a fault as the source of earthquakes. It is found that the motion of the source and the relative position of the station with respect to the fault are important in determining the energy density, the energy flux and the duration of the earthquake at this station. There is a “sphere of influence” beyond which the source may be assumed to be stationary. The analytical results are in good agreement with those of the 5 strong motion records obtained very near the fault from the Parkfield event of 27th June, 1966. 21 strong motion records are studied for energy densities at the stations from which a magnitude-energy relationship is obtained which agrees closely with other existing relationships.     

Energy sector policies in Botswana and their implications for global climate change

Like most African countries, Botswana contributes almost insignificantly to global greenhouse emissions (GHGs). In this context, some have argued that energy policy and legislative measures to regulate emissions in Botswana should not be accorded high priority. This is a misguided view when one considers that each country, no matter how under-industrialized, contributes to the overall global emission problem. Moreover, the least developed countries will have to industrialize in order to meet the increasing economic and social needs of their growing populations. For rapidly growing economies like Botswana, whose annual energy demand is projected to increase by about 4% for the next ten years, the importance of compiling accurate inventories of sources and sinks of GHGs and formulating environmentally-friendly policies can hardly be over- emphasized. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides the ideal basis for the country-by-country investigations and management of global climatic change; specifically its nature, properties, directionality, characteristics and probable consequences. Botswana was a founding signatory of UNFCCC in 1992 and ratified the Convention in 1994. The country is also involved in regional cooperation efforts, within the Southern African Development Community, to enforce regulatory mechanisms to minimize GHG emissions from the energy sector. There exist certain energy-related institutions, policies, and regulations in the country which could mitigate the impact of GHG emissions on global warming. This paper, based on government and other relevant documentation, critically analyses Botswana's energy sector policies in as far as they affect climate change. It is clear that much still needs to be done about energy policies in terms of proper formulation, monitoring, co-ordination, energy pricing and the exploration of energy alternatives to mitigate potentially negative impacts on climate change.     

On intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquakes in the Himalayan arc region using pattern recognition algorithm M8

Seismicity of the Himalayan arc lying within the limits shown in figure 1 and covering the period 1964 to 1987 was scanned using M8 algorithm with a view to identifying the times of increased probabilities (TIPs) of the occurrence of earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 7·0, during the period 1970 to 1987. In this period, TIPs occupy 18% of the space time considered. One of these precedes the only earthquake in this magnitude range which occurred during the period. Two numerical parameters used in the algorithm, namely the magnitude thresholds, had to be altered for the present study owing to incomplete data. Further monitoring of TIPs is however warranted, both for testing the predictive capability of this algorithm in the Himalayan region and for creating a base for the search of short-term precursors.     

On the migration of precursors of strong earthquakes

It is found that perturbations presumedly associated with swarms, the B patterns and the BG pattern precursors of strong earthquakes in New Zealand, California and Apennines, propagate in the crust of the Earth with a velocity of the order of cm¹. The hypothesis that a single travelling elastic perturbation causes a set of precursors of the same strong earthquake is discussed and it is concluded that each precursor is associated with a different perturbation.     

Characterising the present-day stress regime of the Georgina Basin

The onshore Georgina Basin in northern Australia is prospective for unconventional hydrocarbons; however, like many frontier basins, it is underexplored. A well-connected hydraulic fracture network has been shown to be essential for the extraction of resources from the tight reservoirs that categorise unconventional plays, as they allow for economic flows of fluid from the reservoir to the well. One of the fundamental scientific questions regarding hydraulic stimulation within the sub-surface of sedimentary basins is the degree to which local and regional tectonic stresses act as a primary control on fracture propagation. As such, an understanding of present-day stresses has become increasingly important to modern petroleum exploration and production, particularly when considering unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs. This study characterises the regional stress regime in the Georgina Basin using existing well data. Wellbore geophysical logs, including electrical resistivity image logs, and well tests from 31 petroleum and stratigraphic wells have been used to derive stress magnitudes and constrain horizontal stress orientations. Borehole failure features interpreted from wellbore image and caliper logs yield a maximum horizontal stress orientation of 044°N. Integration of density log data results in a vertical stress gradient of 24.6 MPa km^–1. Leak-off and mini-fracture tests suggest that this is the minimum principal stress, as leak-off values are generally shown to be at or above the magnitude of vertical stress. The maximum horizontal stress gradient is calculated to be in the range of 31.3–53.9 MPa km^–1. As such, a compressional stress regime favouring reverse/reverse–strike-slip faulting is interpreted for the Georgina Basin.     

全球新生代苦橄岩时空分布特征及意义

苦橄岩是一种高温下形成的超镁铁质熔岩,形成温度一般高出地幔部分熔融而成的玄武岩300~400℃,可以为判断热点提供依据。该文以GEOROC和PetDB两个地质数据库为基础,通过对其中新生代苦橄岩年龄及构造环境数据的统计分析,以期查明新生代苦橄岩的时空分布特征和厘定出可能的高温热点分布情况。研究表明,新生代有苦橄岩产出的火山活动自中新世开始变得活跃,在更新世和全新世达到顶峰。同时,苦橄岩产出环境多样且具有演变特征,中新世前以CFB和洋岛环境为主,中新世后转为岛弧和洋岛环境为主,更新世和全新世则主要为洋岛环境,总体上来看新生代苦橄岩主要产于大洋环境,并以洋岛环境为主。另外,根据苦橄岩的出露特征可得出现代高温热点可能分布在夏威夷群岛、科隆群岛(厄瓜多尔)、冰岛、加那利群岛、欧洲造山带德国境内的埃费尔山地区、红海洋脊、东非裂谷处、法属留尼汪岛、中国东南沿海广东省境内以及堪察加岛弧10个地区。     

Spatial aspects of building and population exposure data and their implications for global earthquake exposure modeling

This paper discusses spatial aspects of the global exposure dataset and mapping needs for earthquake risk assessment. We discuss this in the context of development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model (GED4GEM), which requires compilation of a multi-scale inventory of assets at risk, for example, buildings, populations, and economic exposure. After defining the relevant spatial and geographic scales of interest, different procedures are proposed to disaggregate coarse-resolution data, to map them, and if necessary to infer missing data by using proxies. We discuss the advantages and limitations of these methodologies and detail the potentials of utilizing remote-sensing data. The latter is used especially to homogenize an existing coarser dataset and, where possible, replace it with detailed information extracted from remote sensing using the built-up indicators for different environments. Present research shows that the spatial aspects of earthquake risk computation are tightly connected with the availability of datasets of the resolution necessary for producing sufficiently detailed exposure. The global exposure database designed by the GED4GEM project is able to manage datasets and queries of multiple spatial scales.     

Predicting failure in rocks and its implications for predicting earthquakes

In the laboratory rock failure can be predicted both in space and in time. The processes leading to failure are well understood and manifest themselves in measurable quantities. Ultrasonic velocity changes and surface strain anomalies are the most reliable indicators of the impeding failure. To a lesser degree and very much dependent on the deformation rate and the moisture content, acoustic emissions cluster in the vicinity of the failure shortly before the rupture occurs. The precursory failure zone has a linear dimension on the order of 1000 grain diameters. If the same physical mechanisms are involved in the Earth as failure is approached, then detailed velocity and surface strain measurements would greatly enhance our ability to predict earthquakes. With the realization of the Global Positioning System and a possible extension to a satellite holographic system, it is now possible to measure surface deformation inexpensively on a densely spaced grid.     

Identification of potential areas for the occurrence of strong earthquakes in Himalayan arc region

Morphostructural zoning (MSZ) scheme of the Himalayan arc region as obtained from a joint study of topographic, geological and tectonic maps as well as satellite imagery is analysed. Three types of morphostructures have been determined: territorial units (blocks of different ranks), linear zones limiting these blocks (lineaments) and intersections of the lineaments (knots). Comparison of MSZ scheme with the know seismicity indicates epicenters of strong earthquakes (M≥6·5) clustered around some of these knots. Pattern recognition method is used to determine seismically potential areas for the occurrence of recognition method is used to determine seismically potential, for the occurrence of strong earthquakes of magnitude ≥M ₀. We have carried out two such studies for the Himalayan arc region, one forM ₀=6·5 and the other forM ₀=7·0. Out of a total number of 97 knots, 48 knots are found to be seismically potential for the occurrence of earthquake ofM≥6·5. The results of the study forM ₀=6·5 were presented in the symposium on “Earthquake Prediction” held in Strasbourg, France, March 1991 (Gorshkovet al 1991). The epicenter of Uttarkashi earthquake of magnitude,M _b=6·6 that occurred in the late hours of 19th October 1991 (UTC) lies in the vicinity of one such knot. The second study carried out subsequently shows that only 36, knots are potential for the occurrence of earthquakes ofM≥7·0, which include the knot, associated with theUttarkashi earthquake.     

蒋家沟砾石土的特性及其对斜坡失稳的意义

云南蒋家沟是世界上著名的由降雨导致泥石流、浅层滑坡频发的沟谷之一。组成蒋家沟斜坡表层的砾石土具有孔隙度高、级配宽、不均匀系数大等特点,级配曲线为上凹型或双峰型,为内在不稳定性土。X射线衍射分析表明,粒径小于1 mm 的细粒部分主要由绿泥石和伊利石等黏土矿物及次生石英组成,黏土矿物会影响砾石土的物理力学性质。在环境电镜扫描中观测了砾石土的微观结构,发现一种特殊的“桥式”胶结结构,并在遇水条件下发生断裂,不仅降低了微弱黏聚力,而且土颗粒容易分离成粒径为数十微米的散微粒。这与砾石土中黏性部分具有高分散性有关。此外这些散微粒在自滤过程中会能发生运移,并在孔喉等处积聚而堵塞孔隙,会降低砾石土的渗透性以及有利于斜坡中暂态上层滞水的积聚。     

Quiescence period prior to strong earthquakes in the Kuril-Kamchatka zone

The characteristics of the distributions of the time differences occurrence of the consecutive earthquakes in the Kuril-Kamchatka zone, including the Hokkaido Island area, have been investigated in various magnitude ranges. For the purpose of the analysis, we used the data from the regional and world earthquake catalogs for the last 20 years. As a result of this analysis, a new intermediate-term precursor effect has been found: a quiescence period observed prior to the strongest earthquakes. This precursor manifests itself in the form of the long-term (2–6 months) absence of events with M ≥ 5.5 within the territory. For the predictive purposes, it was proposed to replace the quiescence period by such a more stable parameter as the sum of the three longest intervals between the earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in a sliding time window. The prognostic informativeness of this parameter has been assessed.     

A model of characteristic earthquakes and its implications for regional seismicity

Regional seismicity (i.e. that averaged over large enough areas over long enough periods of time) has a size–frequency relationship, the Gutenberg–Richter law, which differs from that found for some seismic faults, the Characteristic Earthquake relationship. But all seismicity comes in the end from active faults, so the question arises of how one seismicity pattern could emerge from the other. The recently introduced Minimalist Model of Vázquez‐Prada et al. of characteristic earthquakes provides a simple representation of the seismicity originating from a single fault. Here, we show that a Characteristic Earthquake relationship together with a fractal distribution of fault lengths can accurately describe the total seismicity produced in a region. The resulting earthquake catalogue accounts for the addition of both all the characteristic and all the non‐characteristic events triggered in the faults. The global accumulated size–frequency relationship strongly depends on the fault length fractal exponent and, for fractal exponents close to 2, correctly describes a Gutenberg–Richter distribution with a b exponent compatible with real seismicity.     

Tectonic implications of the earthquakes in the Indian subcontinent

The Bhuj earthquake (26 January 2001) in India and the Ghori earthquake (8 October 2005) in Pakistan, both occurred close to the Indian-Iranian plate boundary related to the activity along the intercontinental Chaman transform fault. It is suggested that the seismic activity along NNW — NNE trending weak zones or faults is more intense in the sub-continent than along the WNW trending zones. Since the stress along the former is less compressive but more of the shear or translational type. The devastative Koyna (1967) and Latur (1993) earthquakes both occurred along faults or weak zones that were close to the meridional rather than the equatorial trend. The Indian plate is moving to the north or NNE or NNW, along a rotational trajectory and hence the force tends to be more compressive along the equatorial weak zones. In contrast, it tends to be less compressive and more of the shear or translational along the weak zones that are close to meridional trend. The seismic activity is therefore more intense along the weak zones with NNW to NNE trend than along the ENE to EW trending zones.     

Horizontal motions and the generation of strong earthquakes in the North Sakhalin interiors

The recent geodynamics of Sakhalin Island is best described by the convergence of the Eurasian and North American (Sea of Okhotsk) lithospheric plates, which is manifested in the high seismic activity of the island. In North Sakhalin, the plate boundary is thought to correspond to a system of roughly N-S-trending faults, which belong to the North Sakhalin deep fault, and the Upper-Piltun fault; the latter was ruptured by the 1995 M 7.2 Neftegorsk earthquake. This study first confirmed that the stationary motion of the Sea of Okhotsk plate is retarded on this fault to form with time a series of drag folds and stress field anomalies. The latter are released during the subsequent (in a 400⦒o 1000-year period) strong earthquakes by seismic sliding on the flanks of the Upper Piltun fault. The 2003–2006 GPS observations revealed the free state of this fault zone with relative slip rates of 5–6 mm/yr.     

Investigation of the variability of strong ground motions from Vrancea earthquakes

A systematic investigation of the applicability of several ground motion prediction models for Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source is conducted in this research. Two ground motion prediction models recommended by previous evaluations (Vacareanu et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 11(6):1867–1884, 2013a; Pavel et al. in Earthq Struct 6(1):1–18, 2014), as well as two new state-of-the-art ground motion prediction equations (Vacareanu et al. in J Earthq Eng, 2013b; Earthq Struct 6(2):141–161, 2014) are tested using an increased strong ground motion database consisting of 150 recordings from Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes. The evaluation is performed by using several goodness-of-fit parameters from the literature. Moreover, the applicability of the single-station sigma method is also investigated by using the same strong ground motion database recorded in 30 seismic stations from southern and eastern Romania. The influence of the soil conditions on the numerical results obtained in this study is investigated and discussed using the results provided by the analysis of variance method. The impact of the single-station standard deviation on the levels of seismic hazard is also assessed in this study, and the results show, in the analyzed cases, significant reductions of the hazard levels.     

Focal mechanisms of the Atlas earthquakes,and tectonic implications

The determination of the focal mechanisms of the strongest shocks in the Atlas chain and the Canary Islands area reveals that the present-day tectonics along this range is a compression reflected either by reverse or dextral strike-slip faulting along the ENE-WSW trends. All the solutions are consistent with: 1. the other focal mechanism solutions determined further north in the Azores-Gibraltar, Alboran, Rif and Tell areas; 2. the NNW to NW trending compression inferred from other methods such as neotectonics,in situ stress field measurements and plate motions.

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Zusammenfassung Die Bestimmung des Erdbebenherdmechanismus der stärksten Beben im Atlasgebirge und des Gebietes der Kanarischen Inseln gibt zu erkennen, daß die aktuellen tektonischen Bewegungen entlang dieses Bereiches kompressiv wirksam sind. Dies zeigt sich entweder anhand von Überschiebungen oder an dextralen Blattverschiebungen. Alle Ergebnisse sind übereinstimmend mit: 1. den anderen Erdbebenherdmechanismen weiter im Norden liegender Regionen (Azoren - Gibraltar, Alboran, Rif und Tell); 2. die nach NNW bis NW wirkende Kompression, welche von anderen Methoden abgeleitet wurde (Neotektonik,in-situ Spannungsmessungen und Plattenkinematik).

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Résumé La détermination des mécanismes au foyer des séismes les plus importants de la chaîne atlasique et des îles Canaries révèle que la situation tectonique actuelle le long de cette chaîne est une compression reflétée par le jeu de failles soit inverses, soit décrochantes dextres le long des accidents ENE-WSW. Toutes les solutions sont compatibles avec: (1) les autres mécanismes déterminés plus au nord, dans les régions d'Açores-Gibraltar, Alboran, Rif et Tell; (2) la compression orientée NNW-SSE à NW-SE déterminée à l'aide d'autres méthodes comme la néotectonique, les mesures de contraintesin situ et la cinématique des plaques.

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Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.