共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 234 毫秒
1.
District-wide drought climatology of the southwest monsoon season over India based on standardized precipitation index (SPI) 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:4
District-wide drought climatology over India for the southwest monsoon season (June–September) has been examined using two
simple drought indices; Percent of Normal Precipitation (PNP) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The season drought
indices were computed using long times series (1901–2003) of southwest monsoon season rainfall data of 458 districts over
the country. Identification of all India (nation-wide) drought incidences using both PNP and SPI yielded nearly similar results.
However, the district-wide climatology based on PNP was biased by the aridity of the region. Whereas district-wide drought
climatology based on SPI was not biased by aridity. This study shows that SPI is a better drought index than PNP for the district-wide
drought monitoring over the country. SPI is also suitable for examining break and active events in the southwest monsoon rainfall
over the country. The trend analysis of district-wide season (June–September) SPI series showed significant negative trends
over several districts from Chattisgarh, Bihar, Kerala, Jharkhand, Assam and Meghalaya, Uttaranchal, east Madhya Pradesh,
Vidarbha etc., Whereas significant positive trends in the SPI series were observed over several districts from west Uttar
Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh, South & north Interior Karnataka, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, East Uttar
Pradesh, Punjab, Gujarat etc. 相似文献
2.
The statistical relationship between the summer monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India, onset
dates of monsoon and the index of mid latitude, (35° to 70°N) meridional circulation at 500 hPa level over different sectors
and hemisphere based on 19 years (1971–1989) data, have been examined. The results indicate that (i) the summer monsoon rainfalls
over all India, northwest India and peninsular India show a significant inverse relationship with the strength of meridional
index during previous January over sector 45°W to 90°E. (ii) The summer monsoon rainfalls over all India and peninsular India
show a significant inverse relationship with the strength of meridional index during previous December over sector 90°E to
160°E, (iii) The summer monsoon rainfall over northwest India shows a significant direct relationship with the meridional
index during previous May over sector 160°E to 45°W.
Significant negative relationships are also observed between the meridional circulation indices of previous October (sector
3 and 4), previous December (sectors 1, 3 and 4), previous winter season (sector 3 and 4) and the onset dates of summer monsoon
over India. The meridional circulation index thus can have some possible use for long range forecasting of monsoon rainfall
over all India, northwest India and peninsular India, as well as the onset dates of monsoon. 相似文献
3.
B. Parthasarathy 《Journal of Earth System Science》1984,93(4):371-385
Analysis of summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall series of 29 subdivisions based on a fixed number of raingauges (306
stations) has been made for the 108-year period 1871–1978 for interannual and long-term variability of the rainfall. Statistical
tests show that the rainfall series of 29 sub-divisions are homogeneous, Gaussian-distributed and do not contain any persistence.
The highest and the lowest normal rainfall of 284 and 26 cm are observed over coastal Karnataka and west Rajasthan sub-divisions
respectively. The interannual variability (range) varies over different sub-divisions, the lowest being 55 and the highest
231% of the normal rainfall, for south Assam and Saurashtra and Kutch sub-divisions respectively. High spatial coherency is
observed between neighbouring sub-divisions; northeast region and northern west and peninsular Indian sub-divisions show oppositic
correlation tendency. Significant change in mean rainfall of six sub-divisions is noticed. Correlogram and spectrum analysis
show the presence of 14-year and QBO cycles in a few sub-divisional rainfall series. 相似文献
4.
M. R. Ramesh Kumar S. Sathyendranath N. K. Viswambharan L. V. Gangadhara Rao 《Journal of Earth System Science》1986,95(3):435-446
Using the satellite derived sea surface temperature (SST) data for 1979 (bad monsoon) and 1983 (good monsoon), the SST variability for two contrasting monsoon seasons is studied. The study indicates that large negative anomalies off the Somali and Arabian coasts are associated with good monsoon rainfall over India. The strong monsoonal cooling in these regions can be attributed to strong low level winds and intense upwelling. The reappearance of 27°C isotherm off Somali coast in May/June coincides with the onset of southwest monsoon over India. Further, the influence of zonal anomaly of SST off Somalia Coast (SCZASST) and Central Indian Ocean Zonal Anomaly of SST (CIOZASST) with monsoon rainfall over India is brought out. The former is negatively related to the monsoon rainfall over western and central parts of India, whilst CIOZASST is positively related. 相似文献
5.
Temporal distribution of southwest monsoon (June –September) rainfall is very useful for the country’s agriculture and food
grain production. It contributes more than 75% of India’s annual rainfall. In view of this, an attempt has been made here
to understand the performance of the monthly rainfall for June, July, August and September when the seasonal rainfall is reported
as excess, deficient or normal. To know the dependence of seasonal rainfall on monthly rainfall, the probabilities of occurrence
of excess, deficient and normal monsoon when June, July, August and also June + July and August + September rainfall is reported
to be excess or deficient, are worked out using the long homogenous series of 124 years (1871-–1994) data of monthly and seasonal
rainfall of 29 meteorological sub-divisions of the plain regions of India.
In excess monsoon years, the average percentage contribution of each monsoon month to the long term mean (1871–1994) seasonal
rainfall (June –September) is more than that of the normal while in the deficient years it is less than normal. This is noticed
in all 29 meteorological sub-divisions. From the probability analysis, it is seen that there is a rare possibility of occurrence
of seasonal rainfall to be excess/deficient when the monthly rainfall of any month is deficient/excess. 相似文献
6.
Characteristics of certain surface meteorological parameters in relation to the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
With an objective to understand the influence of surface marine meteorological parameters in relation to the extreme monsoon activity over the Indian sub-continent leading to flood/drought, a detailed analysis of the sea level pressure over the Southern Hemisphere and various surface meteorological parameters over the Indian seas is carried out. The present study using the long term data sets (Southern Hemispheric Sea Level Pressure Analysis; Comprehensive Ocean Atmospheric Data Set over the Indian Seas; Surface Station Climatology Data) clearly indicates that the sea surface temperature changes over the south eastern Pacific (El Ninõ/La Niña) have only a moderate impact (not exceeding 50% reliability) on the Indian summer monsoon activity. On the other hand, the sea level pressure anomaly (SOI) over Australia and the south Pacific has a reasonably high degree of significance (more than 70%) with the monsoon activity over India. However, these two parameters (SLP and SST) do not show any significant variability over the Indian seas in relation to the summer monsoon activity. Over the Indian seas, the parameters which are mainly associated with the convective activity such as cloud cover, relative humidity and the surface wind were found to have a strong association with the extreme monsoon activity (flood/drought) and thus the net oceanic heat loss over the Indian seas provides a strong positive feed-back for the monsoon activity over India. 相似文献
7.
Spatial variability of aridity over northern India (north of 20°N) is studied by examining variations in the arid area. Area with an objectively determined summer monsoon rainfall (June to September total) of less than 500 mm is identified as arid area. The summer monsoon rainfall of 212 rain-gauges from 212 districts of the region for the period 1871–1984 are used in the analysis. An interesting feature of the arid area series is that it shows decreasing trend from beginning of the present century. The summer monsoon rainfall fluctuations over five subjectively divided zones over northern India are examined to understand the association between rainfall and the arid area variations. The rainfall series for northwest India shows a significant increasing trend and that for northeast India a significant decreasing trend from the beginning of this century. Rainfall fluctuations over the remaining zones can be considered intermediate stages of a systematic spatial change in the rainfall pattern. This suggested that the recent decreasing trend in the arid area is due to a westward shift in the monsoon rainfall activities. From correlation analyses it is inferred that perhaps the recent decreasing trend in the arid area and increasing trend in the monsoon rainfall over northwest India are associated with a warming trend of the northern hemisphere. 相似文献
8.
Application of meteorological and vegetation indices for evaluation of drought impact: a case study for Rajasthan, India 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
Drought is a serious climatic condition that affects nearly all climatic zones worldwide, with semi-arid regions being especially
susceptible to drought conditions because of their low annual precipitation and sensitivity to climate changes. Drought indices
such as the standardized precipitation index (SPI) using meteorological data and vegetation indices from satellite data were
developed for quantifying drought conditions. Remote sensing of semi-arid vegetation can provide vegetation indices which
can be used to link drought conditions when correlated with various meteorological data based drought indices. The present
study was carried out for drought monitoring for three districts namely Bhilwara, Kota and Udaipur of Rajasthan state in India
using SPI, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), water supply vegetation index (WSVI) and vegetation condition index
(VCI) derived from the Advanced Very High resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). The SPI was computed at different time scales of
1, 2, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months using monthly rainfall data. The NDVI and WSVI were correlated to the SPI and it was observed
that for the three stations, the correlation coefficient was high for different time scales. Bhilwara district having the
best correlation for the 9-month time scale shows late response while Kota district having the best correlation for 1-month
shows fast response. On the basis of the SPI analysis, it was found that the area was worst affected by drought in the year
2002. This was validated on the basis of NDVI, WSVI and VCI. The study clearly shows that integrated analysis of ground measured
data and satellite data has a great potential in drought monitoring. 相似文献
9.
Groundwater use in India, and many developing countries, is linked to livelihood and well-being of village communities. It is, therefore, important to characterise groundwater behaviour and resilience and identify strategies that will help to improve the sustainability of groundwater supplies. The concept of Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) has been widely used for analysing rainfall drought. In this study, we adapt SPI to understand watertable fluctuations and assess resilience of groundwater supplies vis-à-vis rainfall variability from one year to the next. The modified SPI, called Groundwater Resilience Index (GRI), represents a normalized continuous watertable elevation variability function. The index is applied to two districts, viz., Udaipur and Aravalli in Rajasthan and Gujarat, India, respectively, to assess its usefulness. To evaluate the association of rainfall variability with groundwater depth fluctuation, SPI was also calculated. The study showed that GRI varies less than SPI, indicating that groundwater availability is less variable than the rainfall in both districts. This means that groundwater increases reliability of water supply for irrigation in both districts. The estimated SPI and GRI at 6-month intervals for the study period show that even though the groundwater is not stressed (normal condition in 75% of the months observed), there is variation in resilience of the aquifer system to drought and extreme events. Overall, the study indicated that the proposed GRI can be a useful tool for understanding watertable fluctuations and assessing groundwater resilience, especially to prioritise areas for groundwater recharge when funds for recharge works are limited. 相似文献
10.
NACHIKETA ACHARYA S C KAR MAKARAND A KULKARNI U C MOHANTY L N SAHOO 《Journal of Earth System Science》2011,120(5):795-805
The northeast (NE) monsoon season (October, November and December) is the major period of rainfall activity over south peninsular
India. This study is mainly focused on the prediction of northeast monsoon rainfall using lead-1 products (forecasts for the
season issued in beginning of September) of seven general circulation models (GCMs). An examination of the performances of
these GCMs during hindcast runs (1982–2008) indicates that these models are not able to simulate the observed interannual
variability of rainfall. Inaccurate response of the models to sea surface temperatures may be one of the probable reasons
for the poor performance of these models to predict seasonal mean rainfall anomalies over the study domain. An attempt has
been made to improve the accuracy of predicted rainfall using three different multi-model ensemble (MME) schemes, viz., simple arithmetic mean of models (EM), principal component regression (PCR) and singular value decomposition based multiple
linear regressions (SVD). It is found out that among these three schemes, SVD based MME has more skill than other MME schemes
as well as member models. 相似文献
11.
D GAYATRI VANI S RAMBABU M RAJASEKHAR G V RAMA B V APPARAO A K GHOSH 《Journal of Earth System Science》2011,120(4):755-771
The Indian northeast monsoon is inherently chaotic in nature as the rainfall realised in the peninsular India depends substantially
on the formation and movement of low-pressure systems in central and southwest Bay of Bengal and on the convective activity
which is mainly due to the moist north-easterlies from Bay of Bengal. The objective of this study is to analyse the performance
of the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5), for northeast monsoon 2008 that includes tropical cyclones – Rashmi, Khai-Muk
and Nisha and convective events over Sriharikota region, the rocket launch centre. The impact of objective analysis system
using radiosonde observations, surface observations and Kalpana-1 satellite derived Atmospheric Motion Wind Vectors (AMV)
is also studied. The performance of the model is analysed by comparing the predicted parameters like mean sea level pressure
(MSLP), intensity, track and rainfall with the observations. The results show that the model simulations could capture MSLP
and intensity of all the cyclones reasonably well. The dependence of the movement of the system on the environmental flow
is clearly observed in all the three cases. The vector displacement error and percentage of improvement is calculated to study
the impact of objective data analysis on the movement and intensity of the cyclone. 相似文献
12.
In this paper, the simultaneous effect of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation (SO) on monsoon rainfall
over different homogeneous regions/subdivisions of India is studied. The simultaneous effect of both NAO and SO on Indian
summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is more important than their individual impact because both the oscillations exist simultaneously
throughout the year. To represent the simultaneous impact of NAO and SO, an index called effective strength index (ESI) has
been defined on the basis of monthly NAO and SO indices. The variation in the tendency of ESI from January through April has
been analyzed and reveals that when this tendency is decreasing, then the ESI value throughout the monsoon season (June–September)
of the year remains negative andvice versa. This study further suggests that during the negative phase of ESI tendency, almost all subdivisions of India show above-normal
rainfall andvice versa. The correlation analysis indicates that the ESI-tendency is showing an inverse and statistically significant relationship
with rainfall over 14 subdivisions of India. Area wise, about 50% of the total area of India shows statistically significant
association. Moreover, the ESI-tendency shows a significant relationship with rainfall over north west India, west central
India, central north east India, peninsular India and India as a whole. Thus, ESI-tendency can be used as a precursor for
the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall on a smaller spatial scale. 相似文献
13.
This study analyses regional drought characteristics (frequency, severity, and persistence) of meteorological droughts occurred in the northwestern parts falling under arid and semiarid regions of India with mean annual rainfall ranging between 100 and 900 mm. A drought is defined as a season or a year with rainfall less than 75% of corresponding mean at a place. Long-term monthly rainfall records (1901–2013) of 90 districts of north-west India located in the states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Gujarat are used in the analysis. The percentage departure of seasonal rainfall from long-term average rainfall has been used for identification of onset, termination, and quantification of drought severity. The average frequency varied from once every 3–4 years. The westerly districts have an average drought return period of 3 years, while districts lying toward the east had droughts once every 4 years. Only four of the 90 districts in the study area experienced droughts once every 5 years. Persistent droughts of 2, 3, and 4 year duration occurred widely. Severe droughts occurred in the years 1904, 1905, 1911, 1918, 1931, 1939, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1993, and 2002, with an average frequency of severe drought events of one in 10 years. The analysis presented in this paper improves understanding of the regional drought characteristics and will inform drought mitigations and strategies in these arid and semiarid areas. 相似文献
14.
D. R. Pattanaik 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(3):635-646
Between 1941 and 2002 there has been a decreasing trend in the frequency of monsoon disturbances (MDs) during the summer monsoon
season (June–September). This downwards trend is significant at the 99.9% level for the main monsoon phase (July–August) and
the withdrawal phase (September); however, it is not significant during the onset phase (June). The variability in rainfall
over the homogeneous regions of India on the sub-seasonal scale also shows a significant decreasing trend with respect to
the amount of rainfall over Northwest India (NWI) and Central India (CEI) during all three phases of the monsoon. Meteorological
observations reveal that there has been an eastward shift of the rainfall belt with time over the Indian region on the seasonal
scale and that this shift is more prominent during the withdrawal phase. This decreasing trend in MDs together with its restricted
westerly movement seem to be directly related to the decreasing trend in rainfall over CEI during both the main monsoon and
withdrawal phases and over NWI during the withdrawal phase. The low-level circulation anomalies observed during two periods
(period-I: 1951–1976; period-ii: 1977–2002) are in accordance with the changes in rainfall distribution, with comparatively
more (less) rainfall falling over NWI, CEI and Southern Peninsular India (SPI) during period-I (period-ii), and are accompanied
by a stronger (weaker) monsoon circulation embedded with an anomalous cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation over CEI during
the main monsoon and withdrawal phases. During the onset phase, completely opposite circulation anomalies are observed during
both periods, and these are associated with more (less) rainfall over NWI, CEI and SPI during period-ii (period-I). 相似文献
15.
P. V. Joseph Anu Simon Venu G. Nair Aype Thomas 《Journal of Earth System Science》2004,113(2):139-150
Time series of daily averaged rainfall of about 40 rain gauge stations of south Kerala, situated at the southern-most part
of peninsular India between latitudes about 8‡N and 10‡N were subjected to Wavelet Analysis to study the Intra Seasonal Oscillation
(ISO) in the rainfall and its inter-annual variability. Of the 128 days, 29th May to 3rd October of each of the 95 years 1901-1995
were analysed. We find that the period of ISO does not vary during a monsoon season in most of the years, but it has large
inter-annual variability in the range 23 to 64 days. Period-wise, the years cluster into two groups of ISO, the SHORT consisting
of periods 23, 27 and 32 days and the LONG with a single period of 64 days, both the sets at a significance level of 99%.
During the 95 years at this level of significance there are 44 years with SHORT and 20 years with LONG periods. 11 years have
no ISO even at the 90% level of significance.
We composited NCEP SST anomalies of the summer monsoon season June to September for two groups of years during the period
1965–1993. The first group is of 5 years with a LONG ISO period of 64 days for south Kerala rainfall at significance level
of 99% and the second group is of 12 years with SHORT ISO periods of 23, 27 and 32 days at the same level of significance.
The SST anomaly for the LONG (SHORT) ISO resembles that for an El Nino (La Nina). 相似文献
16.
On the impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events on sub-regional Indian summer monsoon rainfall 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
The relative impacts of the ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events on Indian summer (June–September) monsoon rainfall at
sub-regional scales have been examined in this study. GISST datasets from 1958 to 1998, along with Willmott and Matsuura gridded
rainfall data, all India summer monsoon rainfall data, and homogeneous and sub-regional Indian rainfall datasets were used.
The spatial distribution of partial correlations between the IOD and summer rainfall over India indicates a significant impact
on rainfall along the monsoon trough regions, parts of the southwest coastal regions of India, and also over Pakistan, Afghanistan,
and Iran. ENSO events have a wider impact, although opposite in nature over the monsoon trough region to that of IOD events.
The ENSO (IOD) index is negatively (positively) correlated (significant at the 95% confidence level from a two-tailed Student
t-test) with summer monsoon rainfall over seven (four) of the eight homogeneous rainfall zones of India. During summer, ENSO
events also cause drought over northern Sri Lanka, whereas the IOD events cause surplus rainfall in its south. On monthly
scales, the ENSO and IOD events have significant impacts on many parts of India. In general, the magnitude of ENSO-related
correlations is greater than those related to the IOD. The monthly-stratified IOD variability during each of the months from
July to September has a significant impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability over different parts of India, confirming
that strong IOD events indeed affect the Indian summer monsoon.
相似文献
Karumuri AshokEmail: |
17.
Trends of pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall pattern were studied on decadal basis over different homogeneous monsoon regions in India for the period 1871–2008. It is attempted to understand the relation of monsoon rainfall with the global teleconnections of El Niño and La Niña, for which the correlation analysis has been carried out with Darwin pressure and Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature (Niño 3.4 SST). The correlation analysis inferred that the significant correlations were observed when monsoon rainfall is related to ENSO indices on decadal scale than on annual ones. The study also found that the north-west region is more affected by the moderate El Niño years compared to strong El Niño years. The regions Central North-East and North-East could not make any difference among weak, moderate and strong La Niña events. The authors also have carried out the extreme value analysis over different homogeneous monsoon regions of India as well as for whole India. The results show that the return values of rainfall are increasing with the return periods for the forthcoming 10, 20, 50 and 100 years. The heterogeneity in number of threshold years that were recorded for the extreme rainfall over north-east (humid climatic type) and north-west (arid climatic type) described the climate variability. The results of the present study may be useful for the policy makers in understanding the rainfall exceedance in different return periods for planning the risk management strategies. 相似文献
18.
Gopinadh Konda J S Chowdary G Srinivas C Gnanaseelan Anant Parekh Raju Attada S S V S Rama Krishna 《Journal of Earth System Science》2018,127(4):46
In this study Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) and south Asian summer monsoon rainfall are examined in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) hindcast. High correlation between the observations and model TBO index suggests that the model is able to capture most of the TBO years. Spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies associated with positive TBO over the south Asian region are better represented in the model as in the observations. However, the model predicted rainfall anomaly patterns associated with negative TBO years are improper and magnitudes are underestimated compared to the observations. It is noted that positive (negative) TBO is associated with La Niña (El Niño) like Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the model. This leads to the fact that model TBO is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) driven, while in the observations Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also plays a role in the negative TBO phase. Detailed analysis suggests that the negative TBO rainfall anomaly pattern in the model is highly influenced by improper teleconnections allied to IOD. Unlike in the observations, rainfall anomalies over the south Asian region are anti-correlated with IOD index in CFSv2. Further, summer monsoon rainfall over south Asian region is highly correlated with IOD western pole than eastern pole in CFSv2 in contrast to the observations. Altogether, the present study highlights the importance of improving Indian Ocean SST teleconnections to south Asian summer rainfall in the model by enhancing the predictability of TBO. This in turn would improve monsoon rainfall prediction skill of the model. 相似文献
19.
Characteristics of meteorological drought in Bangladesh 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0
Meteorological drought events occur in Bangladesh are diagnosed using monthly rainfall and mean air temperature from the surface observations and Regional Climate Model (RegCM) by calculating Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the period 1961?C1990. The historical records of drought event obtained from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and International Disaster Database are used to verify the SPI and PDSI detected events. The SPI and monthly PDSI are obtained for 27 station data across Bangladesh as well as for two subregions over the country. Result based on the observed data shows that regional information is better in drought diagnosis compared to the point information. The regional analysis is able to detect about 80?% of the drought events occurred during the study period. Frequency of moderate drought is higher for all over the country. The SPI calculated from RegCM rainfall shows that the detection of moderate drought events is 10, 7, and 21?% overestimated for 1-, 3-, and 6-month length, respectively, compared to using of observed data. For extreme drought cases, detection is overestimated (underestimated) by 25?% (79?%) for 1-month (6-month) length. The PDSI results for model and observed data are nearly same to SPI calculations. Model monthly PDSI result is overestimated (underestimated) by 29?% (50?%) for moderate (severe) drought events with reference to the observed PDSI. Hence, RegCM output may be useful to detect 3?C6-month (monthly to seasonal) length moderate drought events over a heavy rainfall region likely Bangladesh. 相似文献
20.
The northeast monsoon rainfall (NEMR) contributes about 20–40 % of annual rainfall over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). In the present study, the relationship between the NEMR and near-surface atmospheric wind convergence (NSAWC) over the NIO is demonstrated using high-resolution multisatellite data. The rainfall product from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis and near-surface wind product from the Cross-Calibration Multi-Platform available at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution are used for the study. Large-scale NSAWC and divergence maps over the tropical Indian Ocean are generated at monthly scale from the wind product for the period of 1988–2010. A preliminary analysis is carried out for two consecutive anomalous Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years 2005 (negative) and 2006 (positive). The distinct spatial patterns of rainfall rate and NSAWC fields over the NIO clearly show the evolution of the anomalous IOD events in the south eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO). The spatially averaged time-series of pentad NSAWC over the south EEIO box suggests that the variability occurs in phase with rainfall rate during both the northeast monsoon years. Furthermore, the scatter plot between area-averaged pentad rainfall and convergence over the south EEIO box for the period of 1998–2010 shows statistically significant linear correlation which reveals that NSAWC plays a key role in regulating the NEMR. 相似文献