Landslide susceptibility analysis based on citizen reports

Landslide susceptibility estimates are essential for reducing the risk posed by landslides to social and economic well-being. However, estimates of landslide susceptibility depend on reliable landslide inventories whose production requires extensive field or remote sensing efforts. Further, most inventories are not updated through time and thus may not capture the influence of changes in climate and/or land use. Inventories based on citizen reports of landslide occurrence, have the potential to overcome these limitations. Such an inventory can be produced from citizen reports to a 311-phone and online system, a nationwide database that updates real-time and records reported landslides location and timing. Whereas this landslide inventory is promising, it has not used for landslide susceptibility analyses and may be associated with spatial uncertainties and reporting biases. In this study we explore the use of 311-based landslide inventory for landslide susceptibility estimates in Pittsburgh, PA, USA, where landslide risk is among the highest in the nation. We compare the 311-based inventory to field-validated inventories through a multi-pronged approach that combines field validation of 311-reported landslides, probabilistic analysis of the association between landslides and the underlying topographic and geologic factors, and spatial filtering. Our results show that: (a) approximately 70% of the 311-reported landslides are associated with an identifiable landslide in the field; (b) the spatial uncertainty of the 311-reported landslides is 104 ± 25 m; (c) 311-reported landslides differ from other inventories in that they are primarily associated with proximity to roads, however, field-correction of 311-reported landslide locations rectifies this anomaly; (d) a simple spatial filter, scaled by the uncertainty in location as determined from a subset of the 311-data, can increase the consistency between the 311-reported inventory and field-validated inventories. These results suggest that 311-based landslide inventories can improve susceptibility estimates at a relatively low cost and high temporal resolution.     

Discriminant analysis as a possible tool in landslide investigations

As part of an investigation of mass movement on outslopes of contour surface-mines in West Virginia, discriminant analysis was used to determine whether selected spoil properties could statistically distinguish failed and unfailed embankments. The analysis utilized the variables degree of saturation, liquid limit, and shrinkage limit, and the a priori assignment of samples into either actively failing, unfailed, or regraded categories. Results were encouraging, with seventy-four percent of the samples being correctly classified. All misclassifications involved samples from active or regraded landslides, suggesting the method was conservative. Performance of discriminant analysis could probably be improved by modifying the sampling plan.     

基于人工边坡稳定性的降雨型滑坡预警预报模型设计与应用

由削坡建房遗留的人工边坡存在大量滑坡隐患问题,在降雨引发土质边坡自身动力变化分析条件下,以稳定性评价建模为基础,提出降雨型滑坡动力学预警预报模型.文中以广东省梅州市花岗岩地区为例,使用GIS技术构建了1727个预警分析单元,并进行关键地质环境因子赋值及与气象站点数据关联;按坡高、坡度等参数,分别构建16个边坡失稳动力学...     

GIS‐based regional landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study in southern California

Landslides threaten lives and property throughout the United States, causing in excess of $2 billion in damages and 25–50 deaths annually. In regions subjected to urban expansion caused by population growth and/or increased storm intensities caused by changing climate patterns, the economic and society costs of landslides will continue to rise. Using a geographic information system (GIS), this paper develops and implements a multivariate statistical approach for mapping landslide susceptibility. The presented susceptibility maps are intended to help in the design of hazard mitigation and land development policies at regional scales. The paper presents (a) a GIS‐based multivariate statistical approach for mapping landslide susceptibility, (b) several dimensionless landslide susceptibility indexes developed to quantify and weight the influence of individual categories for given potential risk factors on landslides and (c) a case study in southern California, which uses 11 111 seismic landslide scars collected from previous efforts and 5389 landslide scars newly digitized from local geologic maps. In the case study, seven potential risk factors were selected to map landslide susceptibility. Ground slope and event precipitation were the most important factors, followed by land cover, surface curvature, proximity to fault, elevation and proximity to coastline. The developed landslide susceptibility maps show that areas classified as having high or very high susceptibilities contained 71% of the digitized landslide scars and 90% of the seismic landslide scars while only occupying 26% of the total study area. These areas mostly have ground slopes higher than 46% and 2‐year, 6‐hour precipitation greater than 51 mm. Only 12% of digitized landslides and less than 1% of recorded seismic landslides were located in areas classified as low or very low susceptibility, while occupying 42% of the total study region. These areas mostly have slopes less than 27% and 2‐year, 6‐hour precipitation less than 41 mm. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

以菏泽地震为例探讨地震学综合预测方法

在前人提出的地震预测方法基础上提出一种地震学综合预测方法。 首先利用动态图像方法(地震条带与地震空区)大致确定潜在地震危险区; 然后利用中、 强地震产生的库仑应力确定孕震区; 最后利用地震矩快速释放模型和相关长度增长模型判断孕震区是否进入短临状态。 在地震三要素预测中, 发挥地震学典型预测方法的优势, 并且对相关性较小的预测方法的预测结论相互对比、 印证, 以便得出更可靠的预测结果。 文中还利用这种综合预测方法对1983年菏泽5.9级做了简略研究, 结果表明这种综合预测方法的预测结果和菏泽地震基本上是一致的。     

Verification of landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study

A methodology is proposed for mapping susceptibility to landsliding and validating the results. Heavy rains in late 1996 and early 1997 led to a large number of landslids in the Rute sector (Córdoba, Southern Spain), where landslide susceptibility mapping had previously been carried out using a ‘matrix’ method developed with a Geographical Information System (GIS). Analysis of the distribution of the new landslides (or reactivated earlier ones) enabled the methodology to be validated by calculating association coefficients and determining the closeness of the match between subsequent field evidence and the previously defined susceptibility levels. From the data obtained, it can be concluded that the susceptibility mapping effectively explained the spatial distribution of landslides, thus providing valuable information on stability conditions over a widespread area. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于长时间尺度下滑坡易发性评价研究———以甘肃省永靖县为例

利用决策树模型,基于五期土地利用评价因子,对甘肃省永靖县进行近40年的长时间尺度下的滑坡易发性评价,五期评价结果均显示研究区内滑坡灾害的极高和高易发性区域主要集中在中部黄河流域(盐锅峡镇至刘家峡水电站段)周边、西南部川城村—红泉镇—王台乡周边区域以及中部偏东的三条岘乡,该区域人口密集,人类活动较多.研究结果与前人研究结果类似,且通过受试者工作特征曲线的精度检验,说明五期评价结果均具有较高的可靠性.另外,研究区内的自然植被和裸土地与滑坡易发性指标之间具有负相关关系,而旱地、水域和城乡建设用地等人类活动频繁的区域则更容易导致滑坡灾害的发生.从时间尺度上来看,极高和高易发性分区面积逐年下降,但自 2000年,极高和高易发性分区面积减少速度出现显著减缓,同期,该区域内的土地利用变化为城乡建设用地面积增加而植被面积减少,这使得区域内边坡稳定性下降,使部分防灾工程措施的减灾能力下降.本研究为该地区的灾害预防、预测和城乡土地规划提供了参考.     

基于损伤分级的底框结构抗震可靠性分析

底部框架上部混凝土多孔砖砌体结构是一种复合结构形式,在地震作用下两部分结构的损伤状态及其概率可能不同。因此,本文将两种结构形式的"破坏指标"分别用于其结构损伤程度的标定,并考虑地震烈度的发生概率,以此为基础探讨抗震可靠度的分级计算方法。通过对一幢底框结构案例的分析,说明该方法有效实现了抗震可靠度分析的精细化,突破了传统可靠度计算中首超破坏机制对结构破坏判断的单一性限制,适用于复合结构多级风险的量化分析。     

Earthquake-reactivated landslide scenarios in Southern Italy based on spectral-matching input analysis

The Tyrrhenian portion of the Calabria region (southern Italy) is particularly prone to landslides as a consequence of intense morphodynamic processes. These processes affect the slopes that are composed of highly jointed metamorphic rock masses. Moreover, the frequent intense rainfalls and the up to Mw 7.0 regional earthquakes represent the main landslide triggering factors. An area of approximately $45\,\hbox {km}^{2}$ was selected as a test site in the context of a regional project aimed at reconstructing possible earthquake-reactivated landslide scenarios (i.e., referred to already existing landslide masses). An inventory map led to the identification of 175 landslides, including rock slides, earth slides and rock falls. Ground-motion scenarios based on a spectral-matching method were derived to evaluate the expected earthquake-induced displacements of the existing landslides. Naturally recorded acceleration time histories were selected from international ground-motion databases based on a similarity index and considered representative of the seismological features of the considered seismic sources (i.e., epicentral distance, magnitude, focal mechanism). Spectral attenuation was considered, according to well-established attenuation laws, to define the expected response spectrum at the outcropping bedrock corresponding to each existing landslide. Subsequently, the selected natural records were modified to guarantee spectral matching with the attenuated response spectra at each landslide site. The derived time histories were used to compute co-seismic displacements via the classic Newmark’s sliding-block method. Different scenarios of co-seismic landslide displacements or collapse were generated for different pore-water pressure hypotheses. The strongest $\hbox {Mw}>6$ seismic scenario (Messina Straits seismogenic source) indicated an exceedance probability of earthquake-induced co-seismic landslide collapse varying from 20 to 55 % with the increasing severity of the pore-water pressures. This probability corresponds to a percentage of co-seismic landslide displacements up to 40 % of the total inventoried landslides. The exceedance probability indicated that co-seismic landslide collapse drops below 20 % for $\hbox {Mw}<6$ seismic scenarios. In contrast, if a uniform probability is assumed for the seismic action occurrence, i.e., return periods of 475 and 2,475 years, the total percentage of landslide co-seismic displacements could be as high as 70 and 90 %, respectively, for the considered pore-water pressures.     

Prediction of landslide occurrence based on slope-instability analysis and hydrological model simulation

Hillslope failure usually occurs as soil resistance deteriorates in the presence of the acting stress developed by a rising groundwater level during rainstorms. The present study adopted a slope-instability analysis and a hydrological model for landslide prediction during heavy rainstorms. Variation of the groundwater table on hillslope was simulated by using the hydrological model and then the temporal groundwater level at each grid was substituted into the slope-instability analysis to determine the instability of the grids in watersheds for prediction of massive landslides.Hydrological records from two landslide-prone areas in northern Taiwan were collected. Digital elevation model was adopted to obtain the geomorphologic factors required for the slope-instability analysis and the hydrological model. The spatial distribution of soil thickness required for performing the infinite slope model was estimated by using a wetness index. Results showed that the temporal variation of the percentage of unstable grids in the study watersheds basically followed the variation of rainfall hyetographs. The percentage of the unstable grids reached a maximum value when the centroid of the hyetograph passed. A comparison between the landslide records and the model analytical results revealed that a massive landslide might occur if more than 50% of the grids in the subwatershed were classified as unstable in the study areas. The predicted time and location of landslide occurrence were consistent with those obtained from field investigations. It is therefore considered promising to apply the developed analytical method for landslide warning to alleviate the loss of lives and property.     

结构地震反应在小波基下的动力可靠性分析

本文用Meyer小波作为地震地面运动非平稳过程的小波基，推导出线性多自由度在此小波基下的瞬时功率密度谱，由此求出结构动力及可靠度时程，实例表明：这种方法是有效可行的。     

非饱和黄土动力液化研究 ——以党家岔滑坡为例

黄土具有极强的水敏性和动力易损性,黄土地区多次强震都引起过液化、滑坡等地质灾害,造成了严重的人员伤亡和财产损失,因此振动作用下高含水率黄土的液化问题不容忽视.在大量已有研究的基础上,以宁夏党家岔滑坡为例,研究振动作用下高含水率黄土的液化问题.现场调查发现高含水率滑带土并未达到完全饱和状态(饱和度达95％左右),在新鲜的...     

不同小波基下的结构位移反应动力可靠性分析

本文从三种不同小波即：修正的Meyer小波，littlewood-Paley小波，谐波小波的基本概念出发，得出这三种小波基下的地震输入瞬时功率谱，并求出在地震作用下各自的结构位移反应瞬时功率谱，同时定量给出了在这三种小波基下的自由度体系结构位移反应的动力可靠度时程。     

Detailed seismic risk analysis of electrical substation equipment using a reliability based approach

This paper proposes a risk analysis framework for substation structures based on reliability methods. Even though several risk assessment approaches have been developed for buildings, detailed risk analysis procedures for infrastructure components have been lacking in prior studies. The proposed framework is showcased by its application to a system of interconnected structures at a power substation in Tehran. Finite element models of structures are developed and validated in accordance with prev...     

基于响应面法的连续刚构地震可靠度分析

地震可靠度是桥梁抗震研究中的重要问题。基于随机分析的响应面理论和规范反应谱法,提出了一种分析具有随机结构参数的桥梁地震可靠度的方法,研究了结构的破坏准则及其极限状态方程,计算了高墩大跨连续刚构桥在地震激励下设计基准期内的动力可靠度。分析时考虑了结构参数和场地土的随机性,分别计算了连续刚构在多遇地震、设防地震和罕遇地震作用下的失效概率,得到了结构在设计基准期内,"三水准设防标准"条件下的地震可靠度。结果表明,该桥设计满足抗震规范要求。     

Advance first order second moment (AFOSM) method for single reservoir operation reliability analysis: a case study

Reservoir system reliability is the ability of reservoir to perform its required functions under stated conditions for a specified period of time. In classical method of reservoir system reliability analysis, the operation policy is used in a simple simulation model, considering the historical/synthetic inflow series and a number of physical bounds on a reservoir system. This type of reliability analysis assumes a reservoir system as fully failed or functioning, called binary state assumption. A number of researchers from various research backgrounds have shown that the binary state assumption in the traditional reliability theory is not extensively acceptable. Our approach to tackle the present problem space is to implement the algorithm of advance first order second moment (AFOSM) method. In this new method, the inflow and reservoir storage are considered as uncertain variables. The mean, variance and covariance of uncertain variables are determined using moment values of reservoir state variables. For this purpose, a stochastic optimization model developed based on the constraint state formulation is applied. The proposed model of reliability analysis is used to a real case study in Iran. As a result, monthly probabilities of water allocation were computed from AFOSM method, and the outputs were compared with those from Monte Carlo method. The comparison shows that the outputs from AFOSM method are similar to those from the Monte Carlo method. In term of practical use of this study, the proposed method is appropriate to determine the monthly probability of failure in water allocation without the aid of simulation.     

基于生态-经济重要性的滨湖城市土地开发适宜性分区研究——以无锡市为例

契爷石水库是广东省东莞市的一座中型供水水库,为富营养化水体.为改善该水库水质,2002年10月开始从东江调水,以满足供水的水量和水质要求.在调水后的两年期间,对水文、水质和浮游植物种类和数量进行了调查.本文将调查结果与以往(2000年)调查数据进行了对比,分析了调水后该水库水质和浮游植物的特点和调水对水质的影响.调水直接导致TP浓度显著下降,丰水期的TN浓度有一定下降,但调水并没显著降低枯水期TN的浓度.调水后,丰水期水体的叶绿素a浓度有明显的增加,枯水期叶绿素a浓度大大低于调水前.与调水前相比,调水后浮游植物种类数有明显增加,特别是绿藻种类,蓝藻中的假鱼腥藻和针状蓝纤维藻仍为浮游植物优势种,但硅藻中的短小曲壳藻和针杆藻等成为新的优势种,裸藻的数量大为减少.     

基于Kruskal-Wallis检验的地下水污染质分布的研究——以长春地区为例

为准确评价地下水污染质空间分布,本文以长春地区地下水重要组分NO3-为例,利用统计学的熵—矩检验法对长春地区2008年56个水质采样点的检测数据的概率分布进行了检验,得出数据不服从正态分布的结论.在此基础上,选择不要求总体服从正态分布的非参数Kruskal-Wallis检验方法对长春地区所属的各个行政子区域地下水中的N...     

基于MVFOSM有限元可靠度方法的结构整体概率抗震能力分析

结构整体概率抗震能力分析既属于结构体系抗力统计分析研究内容,也属于地震易损性分析研究范畴,多采用数值模拟方法.作为一种不确定性传递的近似解析分析工具,平均值一次二阶矩方法(MVFOSM)广泛地应用于结构构件抗力的统计分析,但是很难应用于结构整体抗力的统计分析,主要困难在于结构反应是基本随机变量的隐式函数,梯度信息很难得到.将结构体系抗力的统计分析和地震易损性分析结合起来,通过基于MVFOSM的有限元可靠度方法,以新一代的地震工程模拟仿真软件OpenSees为计算平台,以最大层间位移角作为结构整体抗震能力参数,对钢筋混凝土框架结构的整体概率抗震能力进行分析,并用Monte Carlo模拟法结果进行验证,从而建立了钢筋混凝土框架结构的整体概率抗震能力模型.算例分析表明,MVFOSM有限元可靠度方法的精度和效率都很高,只需要进行一次有限元分析即可较为准确地获得结构整体概率抗震能力的前二阶矩信息.     

钢框架基于复模态随机反应分析的抗震可靠度研究

首次将复模态法应用于钢框架结构的随机地震反应分析中,通过算例对钢框架结构在平稳地震激励下的抗震可靠度进行了计算分析。同时,提出了钢框架在非平稳地震激励下的反应统计量的求解方法。研究表明,钢框架结构在非平稳地震激励下的随机反应分析,可以利用扩阶的方法来进行,将求解结构非平稳随机响应转化为求解扩阶系统在均匀调制白噪声激励下的响应。采用复模态分析法可较方便地求解出结构在非平稳地震激励下弹性随机反应的协方差函数及均方差的解析表达式。