Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme precipitation in South Korea using peaks-over-threshold and annual maxima

The conventional approach to the frequency analysis of extreme precipitation is complicated by non-stationarity resulting from climate variability and change. This study utilized a non-stationary frequency analysis to better understand the time-varying behavior of short-duration (1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h) precipitation extremes at 65 weather stations scattered across South Korea. Trends in precipitation extremes were diagnosed with respect to both annual maximum precipitation (AMP) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) extremes. Non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models with model parameters made a linear function of time were applied to AMP and POT respectively. Trends detected using the Mann–Kendall test revealed that the stations showing an increasing trend in AMP extremes were concentrated in the mountainous areas (the northeast and southwest regions) of South Korea. Trend tests on POT extremes provided fairly different results, with a significantly reduced number of stations showing an increasing trend and with some stations showing a decreasing trend. For most of stations showing a statistically significant trend, non-stationary GEV and GPD models significantly outperformed their stationary counterparts, particularly for precipitation extremes with shorter durations. Due to a significant-increasing trend in the POT frequency found at a considerable number of stations (about 10 stations for each rainfall duration), the performance of modeling POT extremes was further improved with a non-homogeneous Poisson model. The large differences in design storm estimates between stationary and non-stationary models (design storm estimates from stationary models were significantly lower than the estimates of non-stationary models) demonstrated the challenges in relying on the stationary assumption when planning the design and management of water facilities. This study also highlighted the need of caution when quantifying design storms from POT and AMP extremes by showing a large discrepancy between the estimates from those two approaches.     

Trends in frequency of precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin,China: 1960–2003 / Tendances d'évolution de la fréquence des précipitations extrêmes entre 1960 et 2003 dans le bassin versant du Fleuve Yangtze (Chine)

Abstract

The spatial distribution and trends in the frequency of precipitation extremes over the last 44 years (1960–2003), especially since 1990, have been analysed using daily precipitation data from 147 stations in the Yangtze River basin. The research results are as follows: (1) The 15 mm precipitation isohyet approximately divides the precipitation extremes (corresponding to the 95th percentile) of the stations in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches (higher) from those of the upper Yangtze reaches (lower). Also the starting time of the precipitation extremes in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches is earlier than of those in the upper Yangtze reaches. Precipitation extremes are concentrated mostly in June in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches, and July in the upper Yangtze reaches. (2) During the period 1960–2003, the first two decades had fewer precipitation extremes than the last two decades. There have been significant increasing trends and step changes in frequency of annual total precipitation extremes and precipitation extremes with a 1–5 day gap in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches. Precipitation extremes occur more frequently in shorter periods, separated by a few days. Precipitation extremes are also becoming more concentrated in the month with the highest frequency of extremes (June) in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches. In the upper Yangtze reaches, there is an upward tendency of extreme events in June. Increasing precipitation extremes in June for both the middle and lower, and the upper Yangtze reaches will increase the probability of flooding if the observed trends of the last 40 years continue into the future.     

Frequency analysis of climate extreme events in Zanjan, Iran

In this study, generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) were fitted to the maximum and minimum temperature, maximum wind speed, and maximum precipitation series of Zanjan. Maximum (minimum) daily and absolute annual observations of Zanjan station from 1961 to 2011 were used. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Quantiles corresponding to 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return periods were calculated. It was found that both candidate distributions fitted to extreme events series, were statistically reasonable. Most of the observations from 1961 to 2011 were found to fall within 1–10 years return period. Low extremal index (θ) values were found for excess maximum and minimum temperatures over a high threshold, indicating the occurrence of consecutively high peaks. For the purpose of filtering the dependent observations to obtain a set of approximately independent threshold excesses, a declustering method was performed, which separated the excesses into clusters, then the de-clustered peaks were fitted to the GPD. In both models, values of the shape parameters of extreme precipitation and extreme wind speed were close to zero. The shape parameter was less negative in the GPD than the GEV. This leads to significantly lower return period estimates for high extremes with the GPD model.     

Hydrological extreme variability in the headwater of Tarim River: links with atmospheric teleconnection and regional climate

Variability and possible relationship between monthly 1-day maximum/minimum flow from headwater of Tarim River basin, climatic indices and regional climate were detected by Mann–Kendall test, continuous wavelet transform, cross-wavelet and wavelet coherence methods. The results showed that: (1) hydrological extremes have increased during past 50 years, and the trends of 1-day minimum flow were larger than that of 1-day maximum flow. The most significant change occurred in winter; (2) the hydrological extremes exhibited significant 1-year period and 0.5-year period along the whole hydrological series; (3) different circulation indices may influence the trends of hydrological extremes in different river. The area of polar vortex in North American (i25) and area of Northern Hemisphere polar vortex (i5) showed most significant correlation with 1-day maximum flow and 1-day minimum flow in Aksu River, respectively. In Hotan River, the most significant correlated climate indices with 1-day maximum and minimum flow were Southern oscillation index and area of Northern American Subtropical High (i15), respectively. The area of polar vortex in Atlantic and Europe Sector (i35) showed significant relationships with 1-day minimum flow in Yarkand River; (4) regions of shared power at 0.8–1.5 year mode were found between selected climate indices and the hydrological extremes, anti-phase relations were detected for most of the series; (5) the fluctuations of temperature have strong effects on hydrological extremes, and significant coherence between regional climate and extremes was found at 0.7–1.5 year scale. The results of the study provide valuable information for improving the long-term forecasting of the hydrological extremes using its relationship with climate indices.     

Precipitation regional extreme mapping as a tool for ungauged areas and the assessment of climate changes

The spatial‐temporal characteristics of mean annual daily maximum precipitation events in the upper Yangtze River basin in China are examined using a framework termed precipitation regional extreme mapping (PREM). The framework consists of regional analyses and mapping methods, which have the capability to assess the presence or absence of climate change. The findings confirm the homogeneous regions identified by Wang (2002) using a heterogeneity measure, where all three regions have heterogeneity less than 1.0. The Pearson type III (PE3) distribution was found to be acceptable for all three regions, while the generalized extreme‐value distribution performs better than PE3 for Region I (eastern portion of the upper Yangtze basin). Two indices, root mean square error and mean bias, were used to access the performance of the extreme map, and the results show that the map of extreme can predict precipitation for ungauged regions with acceptable accuracy. The regional frequency maps were used in conjunction with the Student's t‐test to identify the statistical significance of changes of extremes in precipitation. Results indicate that there have been no significant changes in maximum daily precipitation magnitudes over the past four decades, a finding that is valuable for the safe planning of major hydraulic projects and the management and planning of water resources in the upper Yangtze River basin. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends in precipitation extremes over the Yellow River basin in North China: Changing properties and causes

The Mann–Kendall test, composite analysis, and 68 high‐quality meteorological stations were used to explore the spatiotemporal variations and causes of precipitation extremes over the Yellow River basin (YRB) during the period of 1960–2011. Results showed that (a) the YRB is characterized by decreases of most precipitation indices, excluding the simple daily intensity index, which has increasing trends in most locations, suggesting that the intensity of rainfall and the probability of occurrence of droughts have increased during the last decades. (b) Trends of extreme precipitation show mixed patterns in the lower reach of the YRB, where drought–flood disasters have increased. The increases in heavy rainfall and decreases in consecutive wet days in recent years over the northwestern portions of the YRB indicate that the intensity and frequency of above‐normal precipitation have been trending upward in domains. In the central‐south YRB, the maximum 1‐day precipitation (RX1day) and precipitation on extremely wet days (R99p) have significantly increased, whereas the number of consecutive dry days has declined; these trends suggest that the intensity of precipitation extremes has increased in those regions, although the frequency of extreme and total rainfall has decreased. (c) The spatial distributions of seasonal trends in RX1day and maximum 5‐day precipitation (RX5day) exhibited less spatial coherence, and winter is becoming the wettest season regionwide, particularly over the central‐south YRB. (d) There were multiple and overlapping cycles of variability for most precipitation indices, indicating variations of time and frequency. (e) Elevation is intimately correlated with precipitation indices, and a weakening East Asian summer monsoon during 1986–2011 compared to that in 1960–1985 may have played an important role in the declines in most indices over the YRB. Therefore, the combined effects from local and teleconnection forcing factors have collectively influenced the variations in precipitation extremes across the YRB. This study may provide valuable evidence for the effective management of water resources and the conduct of agricultural activities at the basin scale.     

Hydrological and isotopic characterization of river water,groundwater, and groundwater recharge in the Heihe River basin,northwestern China

We used hydrochemistry and environmental isotope data (δ¹⁸O, δD, tritium, and ¹⁴C) to investigate the characteristics of river water, groundwater, and groundwater recharge in China's Heihe River basin. The river water and groundwater could be characterized as Ca²⁺? Mg²⁺? HCO₃^?? SO₄^2? and Na⁺? Mg²⁺? SO₄^2?? Cl^? types, respectively. Hydrogeochemical modelling using PHREEQC software revealed that the main hydrogeochemical processes are dissolution (except for gypsum and anhydrite) along groundwater flow paths from the upper to middle Heihe reaches. Towards the lower reaches, dolomite and calcite tend to precipitate. The isotopic data for most of the river water and groundwater lie on the global meteoric water line (GMWL) or between the GMWL and the meteoric water line in northwestern China, indicating weak evaporation. No direct relationship existed between recharge and discharge of groundwater in the middle and lower reaches based on the isotope ratios, d‐excess, and ¹⁴C values. On the basis of tritium in precipitation and by adopting an exponential piston‐flow model, we evaluated the mean residence time of shallow groundwater with high tritium activities, which was around 50 years (a). Furthermore, based on the several popular models, it is calculated that the deep groundwaters in piedmont alluvial fan zone of the middle reaches and in southern part of the lower reaches are modern water, whereas the deep groundwaters in the edge of the middle reaches and around Juyan Lake in the lower reaches of Heihe river basin are old water. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of land‐use changes on hydrological processes in the middle basin of the Heihe River,northwest China

The effects of land‐use changes on the runoff process in the midstream plain of this arid inland river basin are a key factor in the rational allocation of water resources to the middle and lower reaches. The question is whether and by how much increasingly heavy land use impacts the hydrological processes in such an arid inland river basin. The catchment of the Heihe River, one of the largest inland rivers in the arid region of northwest China, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land‐use change. Flow duration curves were used to detect trends and variations in runoff between the upper and lower reaches. Relationships among precipitation, upstream runoff, and hydrological variables were identified to distinguish the effects of climatic changes and upstream runoff changes on middle and downstream runoff processes. The quantitative relation between midstream cultivated land use and various parameters of downstream runoff processes were analysed using the four periods of land‐use data since 1956. The Volterra numerical function relation of the hydrological non‐linear system response was utilized to develop a multifactor hydrological response simulation model based on the three factors of precipitation, upstream runoff, and cultivated land area. The results showed that, since 1967, the medium‐ and high‐coverage natural grassland area in the midstream region has decreased by 80·1%, and the downstream runoff has declined by 27·32% due to the continuous expansion of the cultivated land area. The contribution of cultivated land expansion to the impact on the annual total runoff is 14–31%, on the annual, spring and winter base flow it is 44–75%, and on spring and winter discharge it is 23–64%. Once the water conservation plan dominated by land‐use structural adjustments is implemented over the next 5 years, the mean annual discharge in the lower reach could increase by 8·98% and the spring discharge by 26·28%. This will significantly alleviate the imbalance between water supply and demand in both its quantity and temporal distribution in the middle and lower reaches. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial distribution and temporal trends in daily and monthly precipitation concentration indices in the upper reaches of the Huai River, China

Understanding precipitation variations on various timescales and their correlations is important for assessment of flood risk and utilization of water resources. In this study, the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation concentration in the upper reaches of the Huai River, China, were investigated using two indices: the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the concentration index (CI) for measuring seasonality and daily heterogeneity using monthly and daily precipitation series, respectively. In particular, the trends of PCI and CI were tested by the Mann–Kendall method, and relationship among PCI, CI and percentage of precipitation contributed by the rainiest days was analyzed by the linear correlation analysis. The results show a significant seasonality of the rainfall distribution and very in homogeneous temporal distribution of the daily rainfall in the south part of the study area, especially in the three reservoirs. Positive trends in the PCI and CI were found at most stations, although none of the PCI trends were statistically significant. Daily heterogeneity of the rainfall in a year is highly correlated with the heavy rainfall amount of the 15 % rainiest days, and seasonality in rainfall distribution over a year can be partly explained by the daily rainfall heterogeneity.     

Prediction of variability of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin under the climate change conditions based on automated statistical downscaling

Many impact studies require climate change information at a finer resolution than that provided by general circulation models (GCMs). Therefore the outputs from GCMs have to be downscaled to obtain the finer resolution climate change scenarios. In this study, an automated statistical downscaling (ASD) regression-based approach is proposed for predicting the daily precipitation of 138 main meteorological stations in the Yangtze River basin for 2010–2099 by statistical downscaling of the outputs of general circulation model (HadCM3) under A2 and B2 scenarios. After that, the spatial–temporal changes of the amount and the extremes of predicted precipitation in the Yangtze River basin are investigated by Mann–Kendall trend test and spatial interpolation. The results showed that: (1) the amount and the change pattern of precipitation could be reasonably simulated by ASD; (2) the predicted annual precipitation will decrease in all sub-catchments during 2020s, while increase in all sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin during 2050s and during 2080s, respectively, under A2 scenario. However, they have mix-trend in each sub-catchment of Yangtze River basin during 2020s, but increase in all sub-catchments during 2050s and 2080s, except for Hanjiang River region during 2080s, as far as B2 scenario is concerned; and (3) the significant increasing trend of the precipitation intensity and maximum precipitation are mainly occurred in the northwest upper part and the middle part of the Yangtze River basin for the whole year and summer under both climate change scenarios and the middle of 2040–2060 can be regarded as the starting point for pattern change of precipitation maxima.     

Spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events during 1951–2011 in Shandong,China and possible connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation

Analyses of the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation extremes defined by eleven extreme precipitation indices in Shandong were conducted by utilizing the methods of linear regression, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and Mann–Kendall test. The results revealed that statistically significant decreasing trends existed for almost all extreme precipitation indices except for the consecutive dry days (CDD) and simple daily intensity index. A periodicity of 10–15 years for precipitation extremes is detected by EEMD analysis. Greatest 5-day total rainfall (RX5day), very wet days (R95p) and annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) experienced decreasing trends in the region stretching from the southeast coast to the west, while the spatial distribution of the decreasing trends for other indices was more complicated. Moreover, the frequency of occurrence in precipitation extremes at Changdao station, surrounded by the sea in the northeast region, increased in contrast to surrounding stations. This may suggest a possible effect from the local marine environment on extreme precipitation. In addition, the stations with statistically significant positive trends for CDD were mainly located in mid-west Shandong and along the southeast coast, where the extreme precipitation and total rainfall were, on the contrary, characterized by decreasing trends. These results indicate that drought or severe drought events have become more frequent in those regions. Analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes indicates that a strengthening anticyclonic circulation and increasing geopotential height as well as decreasing strength of monsoonal flow in recent decades may have contributed to the variations in extreme precipitation in Shandong.     

Statistical downscaling of extreme daily precipitation,evaporation, and temperature and construction of future scenarios

Generally, the statistical downscaling approaches work less perfectly in reproducing precipitation than temperatures, particularly for the extreme precipitation. This article aimed to testify the capability in downscaling the extreme temperature, evaporation, and precipitation in South China using the statistical downscaling method. Meanwhile, the linkages between the underlying driving forces and the incompetent skills in downscaling precipitation extremes over South China need to be extensively addressed. Toward this end, a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was built up to construct future scenarios of extreme daily temperature, pan evaporation, and precipitation. The model was thereafter applied to project climate extremes in the Dongjiang River basin in the 21st century from the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) model under A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The results showed that: (1) The SDSM generally performed fairly well in reproducing the extreme temperature. For the extreme precipitation, the performance of the model was less satisfactory than temperature and evaporation. (2) Both A2 and B2 scenarios projected increases in temperature extremes in all seasons; however, the projections of change in precipitation and evaporation extremes were not consistent with temperature extremes. (3) Skills of SDSM to reproduce the extreme precipitation were very limited. This was partly due to the high randomicity and nonlinearity dominated in extreme precipitation process over the Dongjiang River basin. In pre‐flood seasons (April to June), the mixing of the dry and cold air originated from northern China and the moist warm air releases excessive rainstorms to this basin, while in post‐flood seasons (July to October), the intensive rainstorms are triggered by the tropical system dominated in South China. These unique characteristics collectively account for the incompetent skills of SDSM in reproducing precipitation extremes in South China. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial distribution and temporal trends of mean precipitation and extremes in the arid region,northwest of China,during 1960–2010

On the basis of daily precipitation records at 76 meteorological stations in the arid region, northwest of China, the spatial and temporal distribution of mean precipitation and extremes were analysed during 1960–2010. The Mann–Kendall trend test and linear least square method were utilized to detect monotonic trends and magnitudes in annual and seasonal mean precipitation and extremes. The results obtained indicate that both the mean precipitation and the extremes have increased except in consecutive dry days, which showed the opposite trend. The changes in amplitude of both mean precipitation and extremes show seasonal variability. On an annual basis, the number of rain days (R0.1) has significantly increased. Meanwhile, the precipitation intensity as reflected by simple daily intensity index (SDII), number of heavy precipitation days (R10), very wet days (R95p), max 1‐day precipitation amount (RX1day) and max 5‐day precipitation amount (RX5day) has also significantly increased. This suggests that the precipitation increase in the arid region is due to the increase in both precipitation frequency and intensity. Trends in extremes are very highly correlated with mean trends of precipitation. The spatial correlation between trends in extremes and trends in the mean is stronger for winter (DJF) than for annual and other seasons. The regional annual and seasonal precipitation and extremes are observed the step jump in mean in the late 1980s. Overall, the results of this study are good indicators of local climate change, which will definitely enhance human mitigation to natural hazards caused by precipitation extremes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatiotemporal trends of aridity index in Shiyang River basin of northwest China

Drought/wetness conditions are fundamental not only for agricultural production but also ecology, human health, and economic activity. Dryness/wetness is a function of precipitation, temperature, vegetation and potential evapotranspiration. Regions with low moisture are often characterized by aridity which, in turn, reflects the degree of meteorological drought. Observed climatic data from eleven meteorological stations in and around Shiyang River basin, China, were used to calculate the aridity index (AI) which was defined as the ratio of potential evapotranspiration (ET₀) to precipitation (P). ET₀ was calculated using the Penman–Monteith method. The ordinary kriging method was used to interpolate the spatial variability of ET₀, P and AI. The Mann–Kendall test with a pre-whitening method was employed using the Yue and Wang autocorrelation correction to detect temporal trends. The Theil–Sen estimator was used to estimate the slopes of trend lines. Results showed a higher AI in the north basin and a lower AI in the Qilian Mountain region. Annual ET₀ and P had increasing trends with a slope of 0.672 and 0.459 mm per year, respectively, but trends were not statistically significant for most stations. While annual AI had a slight decreasing trend with a slope of ?0.01 per year, the trend was not statistically significant for all stations. The decreasing trends in winter AI (at a rate of ?0.313/a) was more significant than that in other seasons. The study indicates that the Shiyang River basin is getting slightly wetter, especially in winter.     

A sample reconstruction method based on a modified reservoir index for flood frequency analysis of non-stationary hydrological series

Flood extremes, affected by climate change and intense human activities, exhibit non-stationary characteristics. As a result, the stationarity assumption of traditional flood frequency analysis (FFA) cannot be satisfied. Generally, the impacts of human activities, especially water conservancy projects (i.e., reservoirs), on extreme flood series are much greater than those of climate change; therefore, new FFA methods must be developed to address the non-stationary flood extremes associated with large numbers of reservoirs. In this study, a new sample reconstruction method is proposed to convert the reservoir-influenced annual maximum flow (AMF) series from non-stationary to stationary, thus warranting the feasibility of the traditional FFA approach for non-stationary cases. To be more specifically, a modified reservoir index (MRI(t)) is proposed and the original non-stationary AMF series are converted to stationary series by multiplying by a scalar factor 1/(1 ? MRI(t)), and thus traditional FFA can be adopted. Besides, Bayesian theory was applied to analyze the effect of uncertainty on the designed reconstructed AMF. As an example, the proposed method was applied to observations from Huangzhuang station located on the Hanjiang River. The original AMF observations from Huangzhuang displayed nonstationarity for the continuous construction of reservoirs in the basin. After applying the new method of sample reconstruction, the original AMF observations became stationary, and the designed AMFs were estimated using the reconstructed series and compared with those estimated based on the original observation series. In addition, Bayesian theory is adopted to quantify the uncertainty of designed reconstructed AMF and provide the expectation of the sampling distribution.     

Evaluation of a spatial rainfall generator for generating high resolution precipitation projections over orographically complex terrain

Space–time variability of precipitation plays a key role as driver of many environmental processes. The objective of this study is to evaluate a spatiotemporal (STG) Neyman–Scott Rectangular Pulses (NSRP) generator over orographically complex terrain for statistical downscaling of climate models. Data from 145 rain gauges over a 5760-km² area of Cyprus for 1980–2010 were used for this study. The STG was evaluated for its capacity to reproduce basic rainfall statistical properties, spatial intermittency, and extremes. The results were compared with a multi-single site NRSP generator (MSG). The STG performed well in terms of average annual rainfall (+1.5 % in comparison with the 1980–2010 observations), but does not capture spatial intermittency over the study area and extremes well. Daily events above 50 mm were underestimated by 61 %. The MSG produced a similar error (+1.1 %) in terms of average annual rainfall, while the daily extremes (>50-mm) were underestimated by 11 %. A gridding scheme based on scaling coefficients was used to interpolate the MSG data. Projections of three Regional Climate Models, downscaled by MSG, indicate a 1.5–12 % decrease in the mean annual rainfall over Cyprus for 2020–2050. Furthermore, the number of extremes (>50-mm) for the 145 stations is projected to change between ?24 and +2 % for the three models. The MSG modelling approach maintained the daily rainfall statistics at all grid cells, but cannot create spatially consistent daily precipitation maps, limiting its application to spatially disconnected applications. Further research is needed for the development of spatial non-stationary NRSP models.     

Temporal and spatial variations in hydro-climatic extremes in the Lake Victoria basin

A study was carried out to investigate variability in long term hydro-climatic extremes in the Lake Victoria basin, East Africa. The study aimed at determining whether the long term historical changes in frequency and magnitude of hydro-climatic extremes are statistically significant, to give more light on the differentiation of climate variability from climate change. Long term extremes for 22 rainfall and 10 river flow gauge stations were examined. The hydro-climatic extremes were aggregated at levels from daily, decadal, to monthly scales defined for two wet seasons in the area, the long rainy season extending from March to May (MAM) and the short rainy season extending from October to December (OND), and time slices of 10 years using a sliding window approach. An empirical statistical technique based on Quantile Perturbation Method (QPM) was used. Quantile perturbations that represent empirical changes for precipitation and river flow extremes were derived. Significant decreasing trends in precipitation were observed in the 1930s, 1970s and 1980s, while significant increasing trends were common in the 1960s, late 1980s, and 1990s to the most recent years (2000–2006). In general, significant trends were dominant in the OND compared to MAM season for precipitation and river flow extremes. Results indicated further that there are differences in geographic location of significant trends in the hydro-climatic variables investigated implying that impacts are not spatially coherent. Areas with significant trends appeared to be concentrated in the North to North eastern parts compared to those in the southern parts of the basin.     

长江上游地区可利用降水量的气候特征

利用长江上游地区107个观测站1960-2008年气温、降水观测资料,采用陆面蒸发经验模型计算得到各观测站的月蒸发量,再根据水量平衡关系,得到可利用降水量,采用数理统计、REOF分析和M-K突变检验等方法,分析长江上游地区可利用降水量的气候变化特征.结果表明:长江上游可利用降水量季节变化显著,5-9月长江上游可利用降水...     

Effect of climate changes and water‐related human activities on annual stream flows of the Shiyang river basin in arid north‐west China

The change of annual stream flow in the Shiyang river basin, a typical arid‐inland basin in north‐west China, was investigated using hydrological, meteorological and water‐related human activities' data of the past 50 years. The long‐term trends of the hydrological time series were examined by non‐parametric techniques, including the Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests. Double cumulative curves and multi‐regression methods were used to separate and quantify the effects of climate changes and human activities on the stream flows. The results show that the study area has been experiencing a significant upward warming trend since 1986 and precipitation shows a decreasing trend in the mountainous region but an increasing trend in the plains region. All stream flows in the upper reach and lower reaches of the Shiyang river exhibit decreasing tendencies. Since 1970, human activities, such as irrigation, have had a significant effect on the upstream flow, and account for 60% of total flow decreases in the 1970s. However, climate changes are the main reason for the observed flow decreases in the 1980s and 1990s, with contributions to total flow decrease of 68% and 63%, respectively. Before 1975, flow decreases in the upper reaches were the main factor causing reduced flows in the lower reaches of the Shiyang river. After 1975, the effect of human activities became more pronounced, with contributions of 63%, 68% and 56% to total flow decreases in the lower reaches of the Shiyang river in the periods 1975 to 1980, 1980s and 1990s, respectively. As a result, climate change is responsible for a large proportion of the flow decreases in the upstream section of the catchment during the 1980s and 1990s, while human activities have caused flow decreases downstream during the same period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.