Geo-effectiveness of CMEs

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are important phenomena in coronal dynamics causing interplanetary signatures (ICMEs). They eject large amounts of mass and magnetic fields into the heliosphere, causing major geomagnetic storms and interplanetary shocks. Geomagnetic storms are often characterized by abrupt increases in the northward component of the earth’s field, called sudden commencements (SSC) followed by large decreases of the magnetic field and slow recovery to normal values. The SSCs are well correlated with IP shocks. Here a case study of 10–15 February 2000 and also the statistical study of CME events observed by IPS array, Rajkot, during the years 2000 to 2003 and Radio Astronomy Center, Ooty are described. The geomagnetic storm index Dst, which is a measure of geo-effectiveness, is shown to be well correlated with normalized scintillation index ‘g’, derived from Ooty Radio Telescope (ORT) observations.     

Prediction of Space Weather Using an Asymmetric Cone Model for Halo CMEs

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are responsible of the most severe geomagnetic storms. A prediction of their geoeffectiveness and travel time to Earth’s vicinity is crucial to forecast space weather. Unfortunately, coronagraphic observations are subjected to projection effects and do not provide true characteristics of CMEs. Recently, Michalek (Solar Phys. 237, 101, 2006) developed an asymmetric cone model to obtain the space speed, width, and source location of HCMEs. We applied this technique to obtain the parameters of all front-sided HCMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO experiment during a period from the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2002 (solar cycle 23). These parameters were applied for space weather forecasting. Our study finds that the space speeds are strongly correlated with the travel times of HCMEs to Earth’s vicinity and with the magnitudes related to geomagnetic disturbances.     

Deflection and Rotation of CMEs from Active Region 11158

Between 13 and 16 February 2011, a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) erupted from multiple polarity inversion lines within active region 11158. For seven of these CMEs we employ the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) flux rope model to determine the CME trajectory using both Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and coronagraph images. We then use the model called Forecasting a CME’s Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT) for nonradial CME dynamics driven by magnetic forces to simulate the deflection and rotation of the seven CMEs. We find good agreement between ForeCAT results and reconstructed CME positions and orientations. The CME deflections range in magnitude between \(10^{\circ }\) and \(30^{\circ}\). All CMEs are deflected to the north, but we find variations in the direction of the longitudinal deflection. The rotations range between \(5^{\circ}\) and \(50^{\circ}\) with both clockwise and counterclockwise rotations. Three of the CMEs begin with initial positions within \(2^{\circ}\) from one another. These three CMEs are all deflected primarily northward, with some minor eastward deflection, and rotate counterclockwise. Their final positions and orientations, however, differ by \(20^{\circ}\) and \(30^{\circ}\), respectively. This variation in deflection and rotation results from differences in the CME expansion and radial propagation close to the Sun, as well as from the CME mass. Ultimately, only one of these seven CMEs yielded discernible in situ signatures near Earth, although the active region faced toward Earth throughout the eruptions. We suggest that the differences in the deflection and rotation of the CMEs can explain whether each CME impacted or missed Earth.     

Near-Sun Flux-Rope Structure of CMEs

We have used the Krall flux-rope model (Krall and St. Cyr, Astrophys. J. 2006, 657, 1740) (KFR) to fit 23 magnetic cloud (MC)-CMEs and 30 non-cloud ejecta (EJ)-CMEs in the Living With a Star (LWS) Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) 2011 list. The KFR-fit results shows that the CMEs associated with MCs (EJs) have been deflected closer to (away from) the solar disk center (DC), likely by both the intrinsic magnetic structures inside an active region (AR) and ambient magnetic structures (e.g. nearby ARs, coronal holes, and streamers, etc.). The mean absolute propagation latitudes and longitudes of the EJ-CMEs (18^°, 11^°) were larger than those of the MC-CMEs (11^°, 6^°) by 7^° and 5^°, respectively. Furthermore, the KFR-fit widths showed that the MC-CMEs are wider than the EJ-CMEs. The mean fitting face-on width and edge-on width of the MC-CMEs (EJ-CMEs) were 87 (85)^° and 70 (63)^°, respectively. The deflection away from DC and narrower angular widths of the EJ-CMEs have caused the observing spacecraft to pass over only their flanks and miss the central flux-rope structures. The results of this work support the idea that all CMEs have a flux-rope structure.     

Width of Radio-Loud and Radio-Quiet CMEs

In the present paper we report on the difference in angular sizes between radio-loud and radio-quiet CMEs. For this purpose we compiled these two samples of events using Wind/WAVES and SOHO/LASCO observations obtained during 1996 – 2005. We show that the radio-loud CMEs are almost twice as wide as the radio-quiet CMEs (considering expanding parts of CMEs). Furthermore, we show that the radio-quiet CMEs have a narrow expanding bright part with a large extended diffusive structure. These results were obtained by measuring the CME widths in three different ways.     

Catastrophic fragmentation of asteroids: evidence from meteorites

Meteorites are impact-derived fragments from ≈ 85 parent bodies. For seven of these bodies, the meteorites record evidence suggesting that they may have been catastrophically fragmented. We identify three types of catastrophic events: (a) impact and reassembly events > 4.4 Gy ago, involving molten or very hot parent bodies(> 1200°C); this affected the parent bodies of the ureilites, Shallowater, and the mesosiderites. In each case, the fragments cooled rapidly (≈ 1–1000°C day⁻¹) and then reassembled, (b) Later impacts involving cold bodies which, in some cases, reassembled; this occurred on the H and L ordinary chondrite parent bodies. The L parent body probably suffered another catastrophic event about 500 My ago. (c) Recent impacts of cold, multi-kilometer-sized bodies that generated meter-sized meteoroids; this occurred on the parent bodies of the IIIAB irons (650 My ago), the IVA irons (400 My ago), and the H ordinary chondrite (7 My ago).     

Velocity Distribution of CMEs After Projection Correction

The observed CME (coronal mass ejection) is its projection on the sky plane, and this leads to certain discrepancies between the observational and true parameters of the CME. For example, the observed velocity is generally smaller than the true velocity. The method of making projection correction for the CME velocity based on the conical model is utilized to analyze the velocity distributions of the 1691 CMEs which are only correlated to flares (called the class FL CMEs for short) and the 610 CMEs which are only correlated to filament eruptions (called the class FE CMEs for short) before and after the projection correction. These CMEs were observed with the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronograph on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory from September 1996 to September 2007 (close to a solar cycle). The obtained results are as follows: (1) before and after the projection correction the velocity distribution of FL CMEs is quite similar to that of FE CMEs, and before and after the projection correction the mean velocities of the two classes of CMEs are almost the same; (2) before and after the projection correction, the natural logarithm distribution of the FL CME velocities is also very similar to that of the FE CME velocities.     

Predictions of Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity Deduced from that of Sunspot Number

A new method is proposed to predict cosmic ray intensity and solar modulation parameters. The method is coupled with the McNish and Lincoln method, which predicts first smoothed sunspot numbers. The error achieved is estimated and compared with the same chain of predictions using two other methods developed for US and Russian space applications. The three methods give satisfactory results when applied, for example, to prediction of the dose received on-board commercial aeroplane flights.     

Relation Between Type II Bursts and CMEs Inferred from STEREO Observations

The inner coronagraph (COR1) of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission has made it possible to observe CMEs in the spatial domain overlapping with that of the metric type II radio bursts. The type II bursts were associated with generally weak flares (mostly B and C class soft X-ray flares), but the CMEs were quite energetic. Using CME data for a set of type II bursts during the declining phase of solar cycle 23, we determine the CME height when the type II bursts start, thus giving an estimate of the heliocentric distance at which CME-driven shocks form. This distance has been determined to be ～1.5R _s (solar radii), which coincides with the distance at which the Alfvén speed profile has a minimum value. We also use type II radio observations from STEREO/WAVES and Wind/WAVES observations to show that CMEs with moderate speed drive either weak shocks or no shock at all when they attain a height where the Alfvén speed peaks (～3R _s?–?4R _s). Thus the shocks seem to be most efficient in accelerating electrons in the heliocentric distance range of 1.5R _s to 4R _s. By combining the radial variation of the CME speed in the inner corona (CME speed increase) and interplanetary medium (speed decrease) we were able to correctly account for the deviations from the universal drift-rate spectrum of type II bursts, thus confirming the close physical connection between type II bursts and CMEs. The average height (～1.5R _s) of STEREO CMEs at the time of type II bursts is smaller than that (2.2R _s) obtained for SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) CMEs. We suggest that this may indicate, at least partly, the density reduction in the corona between the maximum and declining phases, so a given plasma level occurs closer to the Sun in the latter phase. In two cases, there was a diffuse shock-like feature ahead of the main body of the CME, indicating a standoff distance of 1R _s?–?2R _s by the time the CME left the LASCO field of view.     

Coronal Magnetic Field Context of Simple CMEs Inferred from Global Potential Field Models

Most work on coronal mass ejection (CME) interpretation focuses on the involved active region rather than on the large-scale coronal context. In this paper a global potential-field source-surface model of the coronal magnetic field is used to evaluate the sensitivity of the coronal field configuration to the location, orientation, and strength of a bipolar active region relative to a background polar field distribution. The results suggest that the introduction of antiparallel components between the field of the active region and the background field can cause significant topological changes in the large-scale coronal magnetic field resembling observations during some simple CMEs. Antiparallel components can be introduced in the real corona by the diffusion and convection of photospheric fields, flux emergence, or erupted or shear-induced twist of active-region fields. Global MHD models with time-dependent boundary conditions could easily test the stability of such configurations and the nature of any related transients.     

Kinematics and Flare Properties of Radio-Loud CMEs

A detailed analysis of the characteristics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares associated with decameter-hectometer wavelength type-II radio bursts (hereafter DH-type-II radio bursts, DH-CMEs or radio-loud CMEs) observed in the period 1997??C?2008 is presented. A sample of 61 limb events is divided into two populations based on the residual acceleration: accelerating CMEs (a _r>0) and decelerating CMEs (a _r<0). We found that average speed (residual acceleration) of all limb DH-CMEs (called radio-loud CMEs) is nearly three (two) times greater than the average speed of the general population CMEs (radio-quiet CMEs). While the initial acceleration (a _i) of the accelerating DH-CMEs is smaller than that of decelerating DH-CMEs (0.79 and 1.62 km?s^?2, respectively), the average speed and magnitude of residual acceleration of the accelerating and decelerating DH-CMEs are similar (??V _CME??: 1254 km?s^?1 and 1303 km?s^?1; ??a _r??: 0.026 km?s^?2 and 0.028 km?s^?2, respectively). The accelerating DH-CMEs attain their peak speed at larger heights than decelerating DH-CMEs. A good positive and negative linear correlation for accelerating and decelerating DH-CMEs (R _a=0.74 and R _d=?0.77, respectively) is found. The flares associated with accelerating DH-CME events have longer rise times and decay times than flares of decelerating DH-CME. The accelerating and decelerating DH-CMEs events associated with DH-type-II bursts have similar ending frequencies. The analysis of time lags between DH-type-II start and the flare onset shows that the delays are longer in accelerating DH-CMEs than decelerating DH-CMEs (P??7 %). However, the time lags between the DH-type-II start and the CMEs onset are similar.     

Association of CMEs with solar surface activity during the rise and maximum phases of solar cycles 23 and 24

The cyclical behaviors of sunspots,flares and coronal mass ejections(CMEs) for 54 months from 2008 November to 2013 April after the onset of Solar Cycle(SC) 24 are compared,for the first time,with those of SC 23 from 1996 November to 2001 April.The results are summarized below.(i) During the maximum phase,the number of sunspots in SC 24 is significantly smaller than that for SC 23 and the number of flares in SC 24 is comparable to that of SC 23.(ii) The number of CMEs in SC 24 is larger than that in SC 23 and the speed of CMEs in SC 24 is smaller than that of SC 23 during the maximum phase.We individually survey all the CMEs(1647 CMEs) from 2010 June to 2011 June.A total of 161 CMEs associated with solar surface activity events can be identified.About 45%of CMEs are associated with quiescent prominence eruptions,27%of CMEs only with solar flares,19%of CMEs with both active-region prominence eruptions and solar flares,and 9%of CMEs only with active-region prominence eruptions.Comparing the association of the CMEs and their source regions in SC 24 with that in SC 23,we notice that the characteristics of source regions for CMEs during SC 24 may be different from those of SC 23.     

Evolution of morphological features of CMEs deduced from catastrophe model of solar eruptions

We describe the evolution of morphological features of the magnetic configuration of CME according to the catastrophe model developed previously. For the parameters chosen for the present work, roughly half of the total mass is nominally contained in the initial flux rope, while the remaining plasma is brought by magnetic reconnection from the corona into the current sheet and from there into the CME bubble. The physical attributes of the difference in the observable features between CME bubble and flare loop system were studied. We tentatively identified distinguishable evolutionary features like the outer shell, the expanding bubble and the flux rope with the leading edge, void and core of the 3-component CME structure. The role of magnetic reconnection is discussed as a possible mechanism for the heating of the prominence material during eruptions. Several aspects of this explanation that need improvement are outlined.     

Geoeffectiveness and flare properties of radio-loud CMEs

A detailed investigation on geoeffective CMEs associated with meter to Deca-Hectometer (herein after m- and DH-type-II) wavelengths range type-II radio bursts observed during the period 1997–2005 is presented. The study consists of three steps: i) the characteristics of m-and DH-type-II bursts associated with flares and geoeffective CMEs; ii) characteristics of geo and non-geoeffective radio-loud and quiet CMEs, iii) the relationships between the geoeffective CMEs and flares properties. Interestingly, we found that 92 % of DH-type-II bursts are extension of m-type-II burst which are associated with faster and wider geoeffective DH-CMEs and also associated with longer/stronger flares. The geoeffective CME-associated m-type-II bursts have higher starting frequency, lower ending frequency and larger bandwidth compared to the general population of m-type-II bursts. The geoeffective CME-associated DH-type-II bursts have longer duration (P?1 %), lower ending frequency (P=2 %) and lower drift rates (P=2 %) than that of DH-type-IIs associated with non-geoeffective CMEs. The differences in mean speed of geoeffective DH-CMEs and non-geoeffective DH-CMEs (1327 km?s^?1 and 1191 km?s^?1, respectively) is statistically insignificant (P=20 %).However, the mean difference in width (339^° and 251^°, respectively) is high statistical significant (P=0.8 %). The geo-effective general populations of LASCO CMEs speeds (545 km?s^?1 and 450 km?s^?1, respectively) and widths (252^° and 60^°, respectively) is higher than the non geo-effective general populations of LASCO CMEs (P=3 % and P=0.02 %, respectively). The geoeffective CMEs associated flares have longer duration, and strong flares than non-geoeffective DH-CMEs associated flares (P=0.8 % and P=1 %, respectively). We have found a good correlation between the geo-effective flare and DH-CMEs properties: i) CMEs speed—acceleration (R=?0.78, where R is a linear correlation coefficient), ii) acceleration—flare peak flux (R=?0.73) and, iii) acceleration—Dst index intensity (R=0.75). The radio-rich CMEs (DH-CMEs) produced more energetic storm than the radio-quiet CMEs (general populations of LASCO CMEs). The above results indicate that the DH-type-II bursts tend to be related with flares and geoeffective CMEs, although there is no physical explanation for the result. If the DH-type-II burst is a continuation of m-type-II burst, it could be a good indicator of geoeffective storms, which has important implications for space weather studies.     

Characteristics of DH type II bursts, CMEs and flares with respect to the acceleration of CMEs

A detailed investigation on DH-type-II radio bursts recorded in Deca-Hectometer (hereinafter DH-type-II) wavelength range and their associated CMEs observed during the year 1997–2008 is presented. The sample of 212 DH-type-II associated with CMEs are classified into three populations: (i) Group I (43 events): DH-type-II associated CMEs are accelerating in the LASCO field view (a>15 m s⁻²); (ii) Group II (99 events): approximately constant velocity CMEs (−15<a<15 m s⁻²) and (iii) Group III (70 events): represents decelerating CMEs (a<−15 m s⁻²). Our study consists of three steps: (i) statistical properties of DH-type-II bursts of Group I, II and III events; (ii) analysis of time lags between onsets of flares and CMEs associated with DH-type-II bursts and (iii) statistical properties of flares and CMEs of Group I, II and III events. We found statistically significant differences between the properties of DH-type-II bursts of Group I, II and III events. The significance (P _a ) is found using the one-way ANOVA-test to examine the differences between means of groups. For example, there is significant difference in the duration (P _a =5%), ending frequency (P _a =4%) and bandwidth (P _a =4%). The accelerating and decelerating CMEs have more kinetic energy than the constant speed CMEs. There is a significant difference between the nose height of CMEs at the end time of DH-type-IIs (P _a ≪1%). From the time delay analysis, we found: (i) there is no significant difference in the delay (flare start—DH-type-II start and flare peak—DH-type-II start); (ii) small differences in the time delay between the CME onset and DH-type-II start, delay between the flare start and CME onset times. However, there are high significant differences in: flare duration (P _a =1%), flare rise time (P _a =0.5%), flare decay time (P _a =5%) and CMEs speed (P _a ≪1%) of Group I, II and III events. The general LASCO CMEs have lower width and speeds when compared to the DH CMEs. It seems there is a strong relation between the kinetic energy of CMEs and DH-type-II properties.     

X-ray emission characteristics of flares associated with CMEs

We present the study of 20 solar flares observed by “Solar X-ray Spectrometer (SOXS)” mission during November 2003 to December 2006 and found associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) seen by LASCO/SOHO mission. In this investigation, X-ray emission characteristics of solar flares and their relationship with the dynamics of CMEs have been presented. We found that the fast moving CMEs, i.e., positive acceleration are better associated with short rise time (< 150 s) flares. However, the velocity of CMEs increases as a function of duration of the flares in both 4.1–10 and 10–20 keV bands. This indicates that the possibility of association of CMEs with larger speeds exists with long duration flare events. We observed that CMEs decelerate with increasing rise time, decay time and duration of the associated X-ray flares. A total 10 out of 20 CMEs under current investigation showed positive acceleration, and 5 of them whose speed did not exceed 589 km/s were associated with short rise time (< 150 s) and short duration (< 1300 s) flares. The other 5 CMEs were associated with long duration or large rise time flare events. The unusual feature of all these positive accelerating CMEs was their low linear speed ranging between 176 and 775 km/s. We do not find any significant correlation between X-ray peak intensity of the flares with linear speed as well as acceleration of the associated CMEs. Based on the onset time of flares and associated CMEs within the observing cadence of CMEs by LASCO, we found that in 16 cases CME preceded the flare by 23 to 1786 s, while in 4 cases flare occurred before the CME by 47 to 685 s. We argue that both events are closely associated with each other and are integral parts of one energy release system.     

Relationship of Halo CMEs and Solar Proton Events

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are important sources of Solar Proton Events (SPEs). Their speeds and source region locations have significant effects on the occurrence of SPEs. In this paper, all the halo CMEs observed in recent five years are statistically analyzed. The results show that the fast halo CMEs with small angular distances are more likely to produce SPEs, especially, those halo CMEs with a speed greater than 1200 km s^?1 and an angular distance less than 60°. Three fast halo CMEs with no SPEs caused are elaborately studied. The results show that the ejection direction of the CME's main body and the variation of interplanetary magnetic field also have important impacts on the occurrence of SPEs. Consequently, in the practical daily space environment forecasts, an accurate forecast for SPEs must take various factors into account, such as the eruption speed, source region location, the main-body ejection direction of CMEs, and the interplanetary environment, etc.     

Ineffectiveness of Narrow CMEs for Cosmic Ray Modulation

Monthly coronal mass ejection (CME) counts, – for all CMEs and CMEs with widths >?30^°, – and monthly averaged speeds for the events in these two groups were compared with both the monthly averaged cosmic ray intensity and the monthly sunspot number. The monthly P _i-index, which is a linear combination of monthly CME count rate and average speed, was also compared with the cosmic ray intensity and sunspot number. The main finding is that narrow CMEs, which were numerous during 2007?–?2009, are ineffective for modulation. A cross-correlation analysis, calculating both the Pearson (r) product–moment correlation coefficient and the Spearman (ρ) rank correlation coefficient, has been used. Between all CMEs and cosmic ray intensity we found correlation coefficients r=??0.49 and ρ=??0.46, while between CMEs with widths >?30^° and cosmic ray intensity we found r=??0.75 and ρ=??0.77, which implies a significant increase. Finally, the best expression for the P _i-index for the examined period was analyzed. The highly anticorrelated behavior among this CME index, the cosmic ray intensity (r=??0.84 and ρ=??0.83), and the sunspot number (r=+?0.82 and ρ=+?0.89) suggests that the first one is a very useful solar–heliospheric parameter for heliospheric and space weather models in general.