Empirical estimate of p-mode frequency shift for solar cycle 23

We have obtained empirical relations between the p-mode frequency shift and the change in solar activity indices. The empirical relations are determined on the basis of frequencies obtained from BBSO and GONG stations during solar cycle 22. These relations are applied to estimate the change in mean frequency for the cycle 21 and 23. A remarkable agreement between the calculated and observed frequency shifts for the ascending phase of cycle 23, indicates that the derived relations are independent of epoch and do not change significantly from cycle to cycle. We propose that these relations could be used to estimate the shift in p-mode frequencies for past, present and future solar activity cycles, if the solar activity index is known. The maximum frequency shift for cycle 23 is estimated to be 265±90 nHz, corresponding to a predicted maximum smoothed sunspot number 118.1±35.     

On the proposed associations of solar neutrino flux with solar particles,cosmic rays,and the solar activity cycle

It has been proposed that the observed solar neutrino flux exhibits important correlations with solar particles, galactic cosmic rays, and the sunspot cycle, with the latter correlation being opposite in phase and lagging behind the sunspot cycle by about one year. Re-examination of the data-available interval 1971–1981, employing various tests of statistical significance, however, suggests that such a claim is, at present, unwarrantable. For example, on the associations of solar neutrino flux and cosmic-ray flux with the Ap geomagnetic index, neither were found to be statistically significant (at the 95% level of confidence), regardless of the choice of lag (-1, 0, or +1 yr). Presuming linear fits, all correlations with Ap had coefficients of determination (r ², where r is the linear correlation coefficient) less than 16%, meaning that 16% of the variation in the selected test parameters could be explained by the variation in Ap. Similarly, on the associations of solar neutrino flux and cosmic ray flux with sunspot number, only the latter association proved to be of statistical importance. Using the best linear fits, the correlation between yearly averages of solar neutrino flux and sunspot number had r ² 19%, the correlation between weighted moving averages (of order 5) of solar neutrino flux and sunspot number had r ² 45%, and the correlation between cosmic-ray flux and sunspot number had r ² 76%, all correlations being inverse associations. Solar neutrino flux was found not to correlate strongly with cosmic-ray flux, and the Ap geomagnetic index was found not to correlate strongly with sunspot number.     

Intermediate degree p-mode frequency splittings near solar maximum

We report on observations of global solar Ca K-line intensity oscillations taken in May 1991 from Mees Solar Observatory, Hawaii. We measurep-mode frequency splittings for modes of spherical harmonic degrees between 20 and 129 averaged over the radial order of the modes. Our measurement of the antisymmetric component of the splittings is comparable with previous measurements and thus indicates a decrease in the latitudinal differential rotation with depth into the convection zone and the upper radiative zone. We find evidence for a 1% variation in the rotation rate of the upper convection zone roughly in phase with the solar activity cycle. Our measurement of the symmetric component of the splittings is of the same order as was reported from the previous solar maximum and is an order of magnitude larger than has been measured near solar minimum. From the degree dependence of the symmetric component of the splittings, we find evidence for an aspherical fractional sound speed perturbation located at a depth of 0.85 ± 0.05 solar radii. This perturbation has a magnitude ofc/c +9 × 10^–4 at the equator relative to the poles. Additionally, there is evidence for a near-surface aspherical sound speed perturbation of smaller magnitudec/c +4 × 10^–4 at the equator relative to the poles. If an intense global magnetic field were the dominant source of the observed symmetric component of the splittings, instead of latitudinal gradients in the sound speed, then global fields of order 10⁵ G would be required in the convection zone.     

Correlation and spectral analysis of daily solar radio flux

Correlation and spectral analysis of solar radio flux density and sunspot number near the maximum of the sunspot cycle has indicated the existence of

1. long period amplitude modulation of the slowly varying component (SVC) of radio emission
2. coronal storage over a period of the order of three solar rotations
3. fast decay (one solar rotation period or less) of gyromagnetic emissions from radio sources
4. shift in location of chromospheric sources compared to those of either the upper corona or the photosphere.

     

On the heliographic latitude dependence of the solar wind velocity

Plasma data from Pioneers 6–7 and from a variety of satellites operating near the Earth are used to investigate the heliographic latitude dependence of the solar wind bulk speed near the sunspot maximum. No evidence is found for a latitude effect: the latitudinal gradient, if any, turns out to be 2 km (sec degree)^–1, to be compared with the gradient of 10 km (sec degree)^–1 observed in periods of low or moderate solar activity.     

The peculiarities of rotation of the solar polar regions

The sidereal rotation rate of the high-latitude solar regions is examined using long-lived photospheric polar faculae. The observations were carried out with the photoheliograph of Kislovodsk Mountain Station of the Pulkovo Observatory from 1982 to 1986. The following facts have been established: (a) There is a differential rotation of the polar faculae close to the maximum of solar activity, while the amount of latitude gradient of solar rotation decreases towards the sunspot minimum; (b) small differences of rotation in the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun are observed; (c) some deviations of differential rotation curves constructed for each Carrington rotation from the mean curve of differential rotation are revealed. The total amplitude of the maximum positive and negative excesses is about 40–50 m s^–1. The positive surplus velocities of solar rotation (the amplitude of which is about 20–25 m s^–1) move in the form of a wave from heliographic latitudes 40° with a velocity of 1.6 m s^–1. The latitude width of this flow is B 15°. This wave of abnormally high velocity starts in the year of minimum solar activity and reaches the pole 11 years later. The picture is symmetrical relative to the equator.     

A solar cycle variation of the interplanetary magnetic field

Measurements of the north-south (B _z component of the interplanetary field as compiled by King (1975) when organized into yearly histograms of the values of ¦B _z ¦ reveal the following. (1) The histograms decrease exponentially from a maximum occurrence frequency at the value ¦B _z ¦ = 0. (2) The slope of the exponential on a semi-log plot varies systematically roughly in phase with the sunspot number in such a way that the probability of large values of ¦B _z ¦ is much greater in the years near sunspot maximum than in the years near sunspot minimum. (3) There is a sparsely populated high-value tail, for which the data are too meager to discern any solar cycle variation. The high-value tail is perhaps associated with travelling interplanetary disturbances. (4) The solar cycle variations of B _z and the ordinary indicators of solar activity are roughly correlated. (5) The solar cycle variation of B _z is distinctly different than that of the solar wind speed and that of the geomagnetic Ap disturbance index.Now at the Aerospace Corporation, El Segundo, Calif. 90245, U.S.A.     

On the variations in the parameters of high-degree acoustic modes with solar cycle

We analyze the pattern of behavior of p-mode wave packets with solar cycle using TON one-day helioseismic data with a high spatial resolution. The time—distance method is used to perform this task. We make an attempt to determine the variations in the travel time of acoustic waves at maximum and minimum solar activity; at maximum activity, this time decreases by 2 s compared to that at minimum activity to a depth of 0.8R_⊙. In addition, the correlation amplitudes of acoustic wave packets from minimum to maximum solar activity were found to decrease by 10–20% for all angular distances.     

Differential rotation of the sun determined tracing sunspots and oscillations of sunspot tilt angle

The time and spatial characteristics of 324 large sunspots (S50 millionths of the solar hemisphere) selected from the Abastumani Astrophysical Observatory photoheliogram collection (1950–1990) have been studied. The variations of sunspot angular rotation velocity residuals and oscillations of sunspot tilt angle were analyzed. It has been shown that the differential rotation rate of selected sunspots correlates on average with the solar cycle. The deceleration of differential rotation of large sunspots begins on the ascending arm of the activity curve and ends on the descending arm reaching minimum near the epochs of solar activity maxima. This behavior disappears during the 21st cycle. The amplitudes and periods of sunspot tilt-angle oscillations correlate well with the solar activity cycle. Near the epochs of activity maximum there appear sunspots with large amplitudes and periods showing a significant scatter while the scatter near the minimum is rather low. We also found evidence of phase difference between the sunspot angular rotation velocity and the amplitudes and periods of tilt-angle oscillations.     

p Modes in and Away from a Sunspot

A time series of GONG Dopplergrams for the period 10–14 May 1997 from Udaipur and Big Bear sites has been used to measure the velocity fluctuations in a sunspot (NOAA active region 8038) and quiet photosphere simultaneously. We observe that the power of pre-dominant p mode is reduced in the sunspot as compared to quiet photosphere by 39–52% depending on the location of the sunspot region on the solar disk. We also observe a relative peak frequency deviation of p modes in the sunspot, of the order of 80–310 Hz, which shows a linear dependence on the magnetic field gradient in the active region. The maximum frequency deviation of 310 Hz on 12 May appears to be an influence of a long-duration solar flare that occurred in this active region. We interpret this relative peak frequency deviation as either due to power re-distribution of p modes in the sunspot or a consequence of frequency modulation of these modes along the magnetic flux tubes due to rapidly varying magnetic field structure.     

Propagation and absorption of cyclotron maser radiation in solar microwave spike bursts

It has been argued that the loss-cone-driven electron cyclotron maser instability can account for the properties of millisecond microwave spike bursts observed during some solar flares. However, as it propagates outward from the corona, maser radiation undergoes gyroresonance absorption when its frequency is a harmonic of the local electron-cyclotron frequency. Existing analytical models using slab geometries predict that this absorption should be sufficiently strong to prevent the radiation from being seen at the observed levels, except under highly restrictive conditions or for unrealistic plasma parameters. A more comprehensive analysis is presented here to determine if and when maser radiation can escape to produce microwave spike bursts. This analysis employs numerical raytracing and incorporates propagation and absorption of fundamental maser emission in a realistic model of a coronal flux loop. It is found that ranges of physical conditions do exist under which maser radiation can escape to an observer and that these conditions are much more limiting for fundamental emission in the extraordinary ()-mode than in the ordinary (o)-mode. Detailed investigation implies that escaping radiation in the -mode is highly directional and chiefly observable toward the center of the solar disk, while escapingo-mode radiation is found to emerge from the corona over a much wider range of directions, with some cases corresponding to radiation observable near the solar limb.     

Variation of the solar constant during the solar cycle

Measurements of the Nimbus-7 and Solar Maximum Mission satellites reported temporary large decreases of the solar constant of the order of a few tenths of a percent on a time-scale from days to weeks. Our investigations show that these decreases were caused by active sunspot groups with fast development and complex structure. This connection between the solar constant variation and the appearance of the active groups seems to be more clear in the maximum of the solar activity. At the time of the solar minimum, mainly in the second part of 1984, there were not any active sunspot groups practically on the solar disk, the value of the solar constant only fluctuated around its mean without large variation. The results of time series analyses show that the periodicity of the solar constant values, of young and active spot areas was nearly 23.5 days in 1980, which increases to 28 days towards the minimum of the solar cycle till 1983. During this time interval the main periodicity of the old, passive spot areas was around 28 days. In 1984, at the time of the solar minimum, there were not any obvious periodicities practically in the projected areas of the different types of the sunspot groups.     

Prediction of the height of solar cycle 23

Presuming a bimodal behaviour of even-odd solar cycle pairs (i.e., four modes designated asA, B, C, andD), we predict the amplitude of solar cycle 23. The bimodal properties include the dependence of maximum relative sunspot number (RM) on cycle rise time (TR) separately for odd-following and even cycles (both in two split modes), and the dependencies of odd-following on even cycles separately for cycle rise times and maximum relative sunspot numbers (each also split into two mode pairs). The procedure was first to identify the proper mode for cycle 22 (modeA), which then explicitly defines the mode for cycle 23 (modeC). The presumed mode-inherent relations were then used to estimate the rise time for cycle 23 (3.7 0.5 yr) and its maximum amplitude (195.1 17.1). A second estimate of maximum amplitude, based directly on a presumed mode-inherent relation between maximum amplitudes for even and odd cycle pairs, yields a somewhat lower value (181.3 44.3). Thus, the results of this analysis supports previous findings that cycle 23 may be one of the largest amplitude cycles ever observed.     

Facular excess radiation and the energy balance of solar active regions

Plage areas and intensities derived from CaII K spectroheliograms are used as a proxy for the facular irradiance excess of solar active regions for the period 19 August to 4 September 1980. Using a calibration method proposed by Vrnak et al. (1991), the photospheric facular index (PFI) with constant facular contrastC _p = 0.018 is replaced by a variableC _p , depending on the plage brightness. A sgnificant increase ofC _p from 0.015 to 0.025 is found for plage areas varying from a few to approx. 6 · 10³ millionths hemispheres.Combining the facular irradiance excess with sunspot deficits (as determined for the same period by Steinegger et al. 1990) yields good aggrement with the irradiance variations measured by ACRIM I, using a center-to-limb variation ofC _p according to Chapman and Meyer (1986). The ratio of facular excess to sunspot deficit (integrated over solid angle 2) decreases from values of 1.5 to 2 for regions with sunspot areas below 100 millionths hemispheres to 0.2 for sunspots of areas > 1000 millionths hemispheres,     

p-mode absorption in the giant active region of 10 March, 1989

A time series of velocity oscillations is observed in the vicinity of NOAA region 5395 with the Kitt Peak vacuum telescope for 6.8 hours on 1989 March 10 as part of a program to study the interaction of solar p-mode oscillations with solar active regions. The data is transformed in a cylindrical coordinate system centered on the visible sunspot, then Hankel- and Fourier-transformed to produce the power spectra of in- and outgoing acoustic waves. It is observed that a maximum of nearly 70% of the power of incident high-degree modes is absorbed by this unusually large sunspot group. The absorptive properties of this active region are compared with those of more typical regions studied previously.A major flare occurred within this region during the observing sequence, providing a rare opportunity to test the hypothesis that flares may excite acoustic waves in the photosphere. A comparison is made of the amount of outgoing p-mode power in equal 200 min time intervals before and after the time of the flare. No significant difference in outgoing acoustic waves is observed within a one-sigma error of about 5% averaged over the interval. A search for acoustic pulses emanating from the flare is made by filtering the data and performing appropriate inverse transforms. No such pulses were detected to a level of about 20% of the background power.NAS-NRC Resident Research Associate.     

Depolarization of solar bursts due to scattering by low-frequency waves

The possibility is explored that fundamental plasma emission in solar radio bursts of types I, II, and III is depolarized due to scattering off low-frequency waves. Three ways in which depolarization might occur are identified: (1) one or several large-angle scatters, (2) several small-angle scatters close to the plasma level, and (3) many small-angle scatters well above the plasma level. It is pointed out that the degree p of polarization (p = 1 initially) may be approximated by p() = cos after one large-angle scatter through an angle , and that for backscatter ( > /2) the sense of polarization changes (from o-mode to x-mode senses). Possibility (2) involves coupling between the o- and x-mode components through their longitudinal parts, and is explored in some detail. The wave vectors k required for the scatterings are identified, and it is suggested that ion-sound waves are suitable for possibility (1) and whistlers for possibility (2). The whistlers may be generated by the streaming electrons themselves.Large-angle scattering is favourable for depolarizing type I emission, as proposed by Wentzel, Zlobec, and Messerotti (1986). Scattering by whistlers near the plasma level is favourable for depolarizing type III bursts. Several predictions are made based on these possibilities.     

The latitude of filament bands at the sunspot minimum and the activity level in the two following 11-year solar cycles

The zonal structure of the distribution of filaments is considered. The mean latitudes of two filament bands are calculated in each solar hemisphere at the minima of the sunspot cycle in the period 1924–1986: middle latitude _{2, m} and low latitude _{1, m} . It is shown that the mean latitude of the filament band _{2, m} at the minimum -m of the cycle correlates, with = 0.94, with the maximum - M sunspot area S(M) and maximum Wolf number W(M) in the succeeding solar cycle M. It is shown that the mean latitude of the low-latitude filament band _{1, m} is linearly dependent on the mean latitude filament band _{2, m + 1} at the succeeding minimum. We found a correlation of the latitude of the low-latitude filament band _{1, m} with the maximum sunspot area in the M + 1 cycle. This enables us to predict the power of two succeeding 11-year solar cycles on the basis of the latitude of filament bands at the minimum of activity, 1985–1986: W(22) - 205 ± 10, W(23) - 210 ± 10. The importance of the relationships found for theory and applied aspects is emphasized. An attempt is made to interpret the relationships physically.     

On the relation between the solar activity cycle and the solar tidal force induced by the planets

The cross-correlation coefficient (t) of the solar tidal force induced by the planets f(x + t) with the sunspot number g(x) during a period of 44 years is about -0.7 when t is about -2 years. This fact will be useful for predicting solar activity. The solar tidal force was calculated from 1928 to 1971 for every degree on the equatorial plane and every time every planet moves one degree. As the solar tidal force, we used the moving annual average by months of the square of the vertical tidal force on the sun, and as the sunspot number we used the Zürich mean annual sunspot number.     

Periods and stability of solar g-modes

We consider the rotation independent (m = 0) frequencies of Hill and Gu (1988) and Henning and Scherrer (1988). Comparison with Cox, Guzik, and Kidman (CGK) frequencies shows that CGK are systematically 5.7 ± 0.7% larger. This effect may be due to the larger central density in this model (162 g cm^–3) compared to the real Sun. A known systematic error of about one percent in the pressure calculated by the Iben (1965) procedure can account for the higher CGK central helium and density. A check of this increase of g-mode frequency with central density is made by calculating g-mode frequencies for a WIMP model with a central density of 210 g cm^–3. This 30% density increase gives a 17% frequency increase, and implies a law with frequency increasing with the 17/30 power of the central density. Thus the 5.7% decrease of frequencies from the model to the real Sun indicates a central density decrease of about 9.7% to about 147 g cm^–3. Comparison with the recent van der Raay g-mode frequencies shows that the CGK model frequencies are about 14% larger, as one would expect for these observed frequencies with a large P ₀ of 41.2 min.Destabilizing mechanisms of the normal -effect at the top of the convection zone and convection blocking at the bottom of the convection zone for low order and low-l g-modes produces pulsation driving that does not seem to be damped by radiation and convection effects at the surface. Since the surface motions are very small, photospheric damping does not stabilize these modes at it does for the 5-min p-modes. For higher-order and degree modes, deep damping by radiation flow across nodes overwhelms the destabilization and any small effect.     

Periodicities of solar irradiance and solar activity indices,I

Using a standard FFT time series analysis, our results show an 8–11 months periodicity in the solar total and UV irradiances, 10.7 cm radio flux, Ca-K plage index, and sunspot blocking function. The physical origin of this period is not known, but the evidence in the results exclude the possibility that the observed period is a harmonic due to the FFT transform or detrending. Periods at 150–157 and 51 days are found in those solar data which are related to strong magnetic fields. The 51-day period is the dominant period in the projected areas of developing complex sunspot groups, but it is missing from the old decaying sunspot areas. This evidence suggests that the 51-day period is related to the emergence of new magnetic fields. A strong 13.5-day period is found in the total irradiance and projected areas of developing complex groups. This confirms those results (e.g., Donnelly et al., 1983, 1984; Bai, 1987, 1989) which show that active centers are located 180 deg apart from each other.Our study also shows that the modulation of various solar data due to the 27-day solar rotation is more pronounced during the declining portion of solar cycle than during the rising portion. This arises from that the active regions and their magnetic fields are better organized and more long-lived during the maximum and declining portion of solar cycle than during its rising portion.