Studies on seismic source

During the period of 1999-2002, the Chinese seismologists made a serious of developments in the study on seis-mic sources including observations, experiments and theory. In the field of observation, the methods of the accu-racy location of earthquake sources, the inversion of seismic moment tensor and the mechanism of earthquake source are improved and developed. A lot of important earthquake events are studied by using these methods. The rupture processes of these events are inverted and investigated combined with the local stress fields and the tec-tonic moment by using the measurements of surface deformation. In the fields of experiments and theory, many developments are obtained in cause of seismic formation, condition of stress and tectonics, dynamics of earthquake rupture, rock fracture and nucleation of strong earthquakes.     

Potential rupture surface model and its application on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influ-ence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. 1 This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; 2 The attitudes of poten-tial rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.     

A seismic gap on the Anninghe fault in western Sichuan,China

Through integrated analyses of time-varying patterns of regional seismicity, occurrence background of strong and large historical earthquakes along active faults, and temporal-spatial distribution of accu- rately relocated hypocenters of modern small earthquakes, this paper analyzes and discusses the im- plication of a 30-year-lasting seismic quiescence in the region along and surrounding the Anninghe and Zemuhe faults in western Sichuan, China. It suggests that the seismic quiescence for ML≥4.0 events has been lasting in the studied region since January, 1977, along with the formation and evaluation of a seismic gap of the second kind, the Anninghe seismic gap. The Anninghe seismic gap has the background of a seismic gap of the first kind along the Anninghe fault, and has resulted from evident fault-locking and strain-accumulating along the fault during the last 30 years. Now, two fault sections either without or with less small earthquakes exist along the Anninghe fault within the An- ninghe seismic gap. They indicate two linked and locked fault-sections, the northern Mianning section and the Mianning-Xichang section with lengths of 65 km and 75 km and elapsed time from the latest large earthquakes of 527 and 471 years, respectively. Along the Anninghe fault, characteristics of both the background of the first kind seismic gap and the seismicity patterns of the second seismic gap, as well as the hypocenter depth distribution of modern small earthquakes are comparable, respectively, to those appearing before the M=8.1 Hoh Xil earthquake of 2001 and to those emerging in the 20 years before the M=7.1 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of 1989, suggesting that the Anninghe seismic gap is tending to become mature, and hence its mid- to long-term potential of large earthquakes should be noticeable. The probable maximum magnitudes of the potential earthquakes are estimated to be as large as 7.4 for both the two locked sections of the Anninghe fault.     

论发震构造特性在潜在震源区参数确定中的应用

发震构造特性是潜在震源区划分及其地震年发生率确定的重要依据。潜在震源区除了反映“未来具有发生破坏性地震的地区”的内涵外,还应反映高震级档地震具有相似复发特征的涵义。由于在地震活动性参数统计单元内,有一些具有不同本底地震的活动构造块体,为更好地反映地震活动的空间不均匀性,考虑潜在震源区的三级划分是有必要的。通过分析潜在震源区内高震级档地震的复发特征,计算预测时段内潜在震源区的高震级档地震的发震概率,采用预测时段内概率等效转换获得地震年平均发生率的方法,有助于在中国地震危险性分析框架内考虑潜在震源区的强震复发特性。另外,文中还对潜在震源区内特征地震次级震级档频度不足的特性和发震构造上强震非均匀性在地震危险性分析中的应用问题进行了探讨     

2022年云南宁蒗MS 5.5地震房屋震害特征与烈度评定

根据2022年云南宁蒗M_S 5.5地震现场调查情况,详细描述本次地震的烈度分布情况和房屋震害特征,计算各烈度区内各类房屋结构的平均震害指数和破坏比,与2012年宁蒗—盐源M_S 5.7地震和历史地震震害统计规律进行对比,结果表明： ①本次地震最大烈度为Ⅶ度,长轴呈NW向,与地震构造背景、震源机制解、余震序列分布和震例统计规律等科技支撑成果吻合较好; ②本次地震中房屋震害较轻,主要得益于脱贫攻坚、农村危房改造和抗震改造等项目的实施,震区房屋结构的整体抗震性能加强。     

中国大陆第5地震轮回青藏块体强震活动特征

1977年以来（中国大陆第5地震轮回）青藏块体发生11次7级以上地震,分析7级以上地震及地震前5级以上地震活动特征,结果表明,7级以上主震发生前,震中区5级以上地震活动一般存在20年以上的平静异常,地震活动特征差异与主震震源机制解及构造位置密切相关。     

以空间光滑的地震活动性模型为空间分布函数的地震危险性分析方法

根据华北地区的地震目录,建立了4个空间光滑的地震活动性模型,并以这些模型为空间分布函数,将华北地震区每个地震带的地震年发生率分配到空间格点中,计算这一地区的地震危险性．结果表明,采用仪器记录地震计算得到的地震活动性模型和地震危险性结果能够反映华北地区现今的地震活动水平和地震危险性水平,符合人们对现今华北地区地震危险性的认识;采用历史破坏性地震（Mge;4.7）计算的地震活动性模型和地震危险性结果,较好地反映了华北地区中强地震活动区的地震危险性水平;以地震应变计算地震活动率,并根据点椭圆模型和线椭圆模型计算得到的地震活动性模型,能够较好地反映大地震的活动水平和空间构造特征．将根据4个模型计算得到的50年超越概率10%峰值加速度（PGA）分布加权平均,得到综合的华北地区PGA分布,并将该PGA分布与根据《中国地震动参数区划图》中综合潜源方案计算得到的50年超越概率10%的PGA分布做了比较,发现二者无本质差别,均能反映华北地震区的地震危险性水平．当然,二者也具有一定的差异:前者计算得到的符合PGAge;100 cm/s2条件的区域面积明显要比后者的大,而符合PGAge;250 cm/s2条件的区域面积则比后者的要小. 这主要是由于潜在震源区类型和空间分布函数不同造成的．      

On correlation between seismic activities and focal mechanisms of subsequent strong earthquakes

Introduction Earthquakes are direct results from tectonic deformation and crustal movements, which usu- ally contain abundant information of crustal stress status and medium property in the deep lithosphere. Seismic activities might reflect accumulation and concentration of crustal stress in the seismogenic process. And different mechanisms of rock ruptures lead to different precursory phe- nomena prior to earthquakes (ZHANG, et al, 2001). Therefore, seismic activities before a strong earthq…     

应用统计物理方法分析川滇地区地震危险性

川滇菱形块体及其边界断裂带(21°～33°N,96°～108°E)是中国大陆地震活动最强烈的地区之一,该地区发生的一系列大地震造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失。文中分别应用基于地震空间相关性和地壳形变场的预测方法分析了该地区未来的地震危险性。由Kagan等(1994)提出的基于地震空间相关性的方法,假定未来发生地震的概率与历史发生地震的频度成正比,根据历史地震目录建立统计学模型估计未来发生地震的概率。回溯性检验表明,这种方法对于评估地震复发周期较短的断裂带的地震危险性有较高的有效性,但对于地震复发周期较长的断裂带,如龙门山断裂带,很难给出一个理想的预期。由Shen等(2007)提出的基于地壳形变场的方法,假定长期地震危险性与地壳构造应变率成正比,根据由GPS观测获得的应变率场建立统计学模型评估未来的地震危险性。回溯性检验表明,川滇地区过去30a间发生的地震与区域应变率的大小没有明显的对应关系,但过去500a间发生的地震与应变率场有很高的相关性,表明由10a时间尺度的大地测量资料得到的地壳应变场可以很好地反映数百a时间尺度的地震危险性。     

Studies on seismic source

During the period of 1999~2002, the Chinese seismologists made a serious of developments in the study on seismic sources including observations, experiments and theory. In the field of observation, the methods of the accuracy location of earthquake sources, the inversion of seismic moment tensor and the mechanism of earthquake source are improved and developed. A lot of important earthquake events are studied by using these methods. The rupture processes of these events are inverted and investigated combined with the local stress fields and the tectonic moment by using the measurements of surface deformation. In the fields of experiments and theory, many developments are obtained in cause of seismic formation, condition of stress and tectonics, dynamics of earthquake rupture, rock fracture and nucleation of strong earthquakes.     

A GIS-based time-dependent seismic source modeling of Northern Iran

The first step in any seismic hazard study is the definition of seismogenic sources and the estimation of magnitude-frequency relationships for each source. There is as yet no standard methodology for source modeling and many researchers have worked on this topic. This study is an effort to define linear and area seismic sources for Northern Iran. The linear or fault sources are developed based on tectonic features and characteristic earthquakes while the area sources are developed based on spatial distribution of small to moderate earthquakes. Time-dependent recurrence relationships are developed for fault sources using renewal approach while time-independent frequency-magnitude relationships are proposed for area sources based on Poisson process. GIS functionalities are used in this study to introduce and incorporate spatial-temporal and geostatistical indices in delineating area seismic sources. The proposed methodology is used to model seismic sources for an area of about 500 by 400 square kilometers around Tehran. Previous researches and reports are studied to compile an earthquake/fault catalog that is as complete as possible. All events are transformed to uniform magnitude scale; duplicate events and dependent shocks are removed. Completeness and time distribution of the compiled catalog is taken into account. The proposed area and linear seismic sources in conjunction with defined recurrence relationships can be used to develop time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Northern Iran.     

青藏高原北部地区地震统计区划分及地震活动特征

地震统计区的划分是研究地震活动性的重要前提和基础,通过对青藏高原北部地区构造地质背景的分析,依据地球物理特征和强震活动特点,讨论和划分该区地震活动统计区,探讨研究区地震活动的复发特点、地震构造特征、潜在地震危险性及强度,分析研究区未来强震发生的强度和可能地点,结果表明,目前青藏高原北部地区处于第8个活跃期,仍存在发生强震的可能,且未来数年存在发生7级以上地震的可能,应密切东昆仑断裂带东段和祁连山中西段地区。     

潜在震源区震级上限不确定性研究

潜在震源区的震级上限（Mu）是指在该潜在震源区内可能发生的最大地震的震级．预期未来发生超过该震级地震的概率趋于0．本文运用误差分析及逻辑树等方法,并结合发震模型的数值模拟得到的大震合成目录等结果,系统分析并最终得到了不同途径给出的不同类型潜在震源区震级上限的不确定性．该结果可直接应用于包括地震区划在内的工程地震以及活动断裂危险性评价等工作中．     

Rupture segmentation and assessment of probabilities of seismic potential on the Xiaojiang fault zone

Spatial distribution of sources of strong and large earthquakes on the Xiaojiang fault zone in eastern Yunnan is studied according to historical earthquake data. 7 segments of relatively independent sources or basic units of rupture along the fault zone have been identified preliminarily. On every segment, time intervals between main historical earthquakes are generally characterized by “time-predictable” recurrence behavior with indetermination. A statistic model for the time intervals between earthquakes of the fault zone has been preliminarily established. And a mathematical method has been introduced into this paper to reckon average recurrence interval between earthquakes under the condition of having known the size of the last event at a specific segment. Based on these, ranges of the average recurrence intervals given confidence have been estimated for events of various sizes on the fault zone. Further, the author puts forward a real-time probabilistic model that is suitable to analyze seismic potential for individual segments along a fault zone on which earthquake recurrence intervals have been characterized by quasi-time-predictable behavior, and applies this model to calculate conditional probabilities and probability gains of earthquake recurring on the individual segments of the Xiaojiang fault zone during the period from 1991 to 2005. As a consequence, it has shown that two parts of this fault zone, from south of Dongchuan to Songming and from Chengjiang to Huaning, have relatively high likelihoods for strong or large earthquake recurring in the future. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 322–330, 1993.     

Prediction and verification of earthquakes induced by the Xiluodu hydropower station reservoir

Research has been conducted on reservoir-induced earthquakes in China since the Xinfengjiang reservoir-induced earthquakes in the 1960s. Regulations now require the risk of reservoir-induced earthquakes to be evaluated in the pre-research stage of all hydropower projects. Although nearly 40 cases of reservoir-induced earthquakes have been reported in China, analyses comparing the changes in seismic activity following reservoir impoundment with predictions are rare. In this study, we compared seismic activities observed in the reservoir area before and after the impoundment of the Xiluodu hydropower station in terms of the spatial distribution, frequency, and focal depths of the earthquakes, and clarified the correlation between their frequency/timing and reservoir level after impoundment. We then concluded that the seismic events in the head region were karst-type earthquakes, while those in the second segment of the reservoir were tectonic earthquakes. The spatial distribution of the earthquake epicenters and the seismic intensities validated some of the results for the reservoir-induced seismic risk assessment for the Xiluodu hydropower station, indicating that the proposed earthquake triggers and predictive models are reasonable. This study can provide a valuable reference for investigating the mechanism (s) of reservoir-induced earthquakes, revising reservoir-induced earthquake hazard assessment codes, and predicting the hazard zones of reservoir-induced seismicity under similar conditions.     

利用区域地震记录测定地震辐射能量

地震辐射能量作为描述地震大小的物理量,可为地震应急和灾害评估提供重要参考.现有快速测定地震辐射能量的方法多使用远震记录（35°≤Δ < 80°）,受到几何扩展和频率相关衰减校正方法的限制,利用区域地震记录（5°≤Δ < 35°）测定地震辐射能量的难度较大.因此,本文发展了一种利用区域地震记录快速测定地震辐射能量的方法.研究结果表明：（1）利用该方法可以测定5.0级以上地震的辐射能量,弥补了由于低信噪比和台站分布影响,导致利用远震记录只能稳定测定6.0级以上地震辐射能量的不足;（2）将该方法应用于2009—2021年发生在中国大陆的66次M_W>5.0地震,结果显示74%的单台区域能量震级与远震能量震级的偏差在±0.3以内;对于44次M_W≥5.5地震,区域结果与远震结果基本一致,86%的事件区域能量震级与远震能量震级的差在±0.2之间;（3）结合地震矩资料,得到中国大陆地区地震的能矩比范围为5.2×10^-6~8.1×10^-5,平均能矩比为2.4×10^-5;走滑型地震的平均能矩比高于倾滑型地震,能矩比整体分布存在区域特征,西域地块地震的平均能矩比高于青藏地块东部地震,青藏地块西部地震的平均能矩比最低,同一区域内的地震能矩比也存在差别,这表明不同断层上发生的地震能量释放过程存在明显差异;（4）该方法具有广泛的应用前景,可以在地震台网的日常工作中测定地震辐射能量,为科学研究、地震应急和地震灾害评估提供新的地震参数.

     

The Principle and Method for Delineation of Potential Seismic Sources in Northwest Yunnan

INTRODUCTION Withrapideconomicdevelopment,deficiencyofelectricalpowerisbecomingincreasinglysevere.Therefore,theconstructionofmorehydropowerstationsinSouthwestChinawherehydropowerresources areabundantisinevitable.Presently,severalcascadepowerstationsarepla…     

时间-震级可预报模式在南北地震带分段危险性评估中的应用

为了定量评估南北地震带不同段落的长期地震危险性,引入了时间－震级可预报模式。在详细地震复发行为的基础上,沿南北地震带划分了３９个震源区。利用其中２７个震源的多轮回复发资料初步建立起时间－震级可预报统计模型。计算结果表明,不同震源的地震复发表现出较好的时间可预报行为以及相对较弱的震级可预报行为。以时间可预报模型为基础,对所有震源区未来地震的复发概率进行了估算,同时,用震级可预报模型对未来地震的震级作     

A fast automatic identification method for seismic belts based on distance correlation and its earthquake case*

Earthquake prediction practice and a large number of earthquake cases show that anomalous images of small earthquake belts may appear near the epicenter before strong earthquakes. Through the research of earthquake cases, researchers have a relatively consistent method to determine the clarity of an identified seismic belt, but there is still a lack of method on seismic belt identification from the distribution of scattered points. Due to the complexity of exhaustive algorithm, the rapid automatic identification technique of seismic belts has been progressing slowly. Visual recognition is still the basic method of seismic belt identification. Based on the algorithm of distance correlation, this paper presents a fast automatic identification method of seismic belts. The effectiveness of this method was proved by 100 random earthquakes and an example of seismic belts of magnitude 4.0 before the 2005 Jiujiang M5.7 earthquake. The results show that: ① the automatic identification of seismic belts should first identify the “relational earthquake”, then identify the “suspected seismic belt”, and finally use the criterion of seismic belt clarity to determine; ② random earthquakes and real earthquakes identification results show that the distance correlation method can realize the fast automatic identification of seismic belts by computer.     

利用地震活动性参数b值判断张渤地震带中西段地震危险性

利用2000年7月-2017年6月地震资料,计算张渤地震构造带中西段地震活动性参数b值、a值和a/b值。基于沿断裂带的b值空间分布,结合多地震活动参数值组合、历史强震背景分布特点,分析张渤地震构造带中西段不同段落的强震危险性。研究结果表明,河北涿鹿及山西大同一带具有低b值、低a值、较高a/b值的参数组合,反映该区域具有高应力积累,未来具有强震发生的危险。