Seismotectonic regionalization of the Red Sea area and its application to seismic risk analysis

A seismological evaluation of the Red Sea margin is presented in this contribution based on the concept of seismotectonic regionalization. The geology and the tectonic structure are critically reviewed to define regions of homogeneous seismicity in the study area, and available seismicity data are implemented to estimate the seismic parameters of the region. The results of the study are applied to evaluate the seismic hazard of an offshore platform site.     

Seismic hazard maps for Jordan and vicinity

Probabilistic methods are used to quantify the seismic hazard in Jordan and neighbouring regions. The hazard model incorporates the uncertainties associated with the seismicity parameters and the attenuation equation. Seven seismic sources are identified in the region and the seismicity parameters of these sources are estimated by making use of all the available information. Seismic hazard computations and the selection of peak ground acceleration and modified Mercalli intensity values at the nodes of a 25 × 25 km mesh covering the region under study are carried out by two different computer programs.The results of the study are presented through a set of seismic hazard maps displaying iso-acceleration and iso-intensity contours corresponding to specified return periods. The first set of maps is derived based on the seismicity data assessed in this study and display our best estimate of the seismic hazard for Jordan and the neighbouring areas. The second set of maps which shows the alternative estimate of seismic hazard is based solely on the seismicity parameters reported by other researchers. The third set of maps, called the Bayesian estimate of seismic hazard, reflects the influence of expert opinion involving more conservative assumptions regarding the Red Sea and Araba faults.     

Seismic hazard assessment in Jordan and its vicinity

The earthquake hazard in Jordan and its vicinity is assessed on the basis of probabilistic methods. For this purpose, an updated earthquake catalog is compiled which covers the period between AD 1–1989. The earthquakes lie between latitudes 27.0°-35.5° N and longitudes 32.0°-39.0° E. Thirteen seismic zones are defined on a regional seismic and tectonic map presented for the area. Point-source and line-source models are used. The seismic hazard parameters, namely, theb-parameter (of the Gutenberg-Richter relation),m ₁ (the upper bound magnitude), and ₄ (the annual rate of occurrence of earthquakes with local magnitudeM _L 4.0) are calculated for each zone. The results of the seismic hazard assessment are displayed as iso-acceleration contours expected to be exceeded during typical economic life times of structures, i.e. 50 and 100 years. For each model, two seismic hazard maps are derived. In order to determine the importance of the South-eastern Mediterranean zone and the north part of the Red Sea zone from a seismic hazard point of view for Jordan, one seismic hazard map which corresponds to 50 years' economic life for every model, excluding the seismicity of these zones, is derived.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Tripura and Mizoram states

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the states of Tripura and Mizoram in North East India is presented in this paper to evaluate the ground motion at bedrock level. Analyses were performed considering the available earthquake catalogs collected from different sources since 1731–2010 within a distance of 500 km from the political boundaries of the states. Earthquake data were declustered to remove the foreshocks and aftershocks in time and space window and then statistical analysis was carried out for data completeness. Based on seismicity, tectonic features and fault rupture mechanism, this region was divided into six major seismogenic zones and subsequently seismicity parameters (a and b) were calculated using Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) relationship. Faults data were extracted from SEISAT (Seismotectonic atlas of India, Geological Survey of India, New Delhi, 2000) published by Geological Survey of India and also from satellite images. The study area was divided into small grids of size 0.05° × 0.05° (approximately 5 km × 5 km), and the hazard parameters (rock level peak horizontal acceleration and spectral accelerations) were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells considering all the seismic sources within a radius of 500 km. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were carried out for Tripura and Mizoram states using the predictive ground motion equations given by Atkinson and Boore (Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:1703–1729, 2003) and Gupta (Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 30:368–377, 2010) for subduction belt. Attenuation relations were validated with the observed PGA values. Results are presented in the form of hazard curve, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and uniform hazard spectra for Agartala and Aizawl city (respective capital cities of Tripura and Mizoram states). Spatial variation of PGA at bedrock level with 2 and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years has been presented in the paper.     

Seismic hazard in Northern Algeria using spatially smoothed seismicity. Results for peak ground acceleration

Seismic hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) has been evaluated in northern Algeria using spatially smoothed seismicity data. We present here a preliminary seismic zoning in northern Algeria as derived from the obtained results.Initially, we have compiled an earthquake catalog of the region taking data from several agencies. Afterwards, we have delimited seismic areas where the b and m_max parameters are different. Finally, by applying the methodology proposed by Frankel [Seismol. Res. Lett. 66 (1995) 8], and using four complete and Poissonian seismicity models, we are able to compute the seismic hazard maps in terms of PGA with 39.3% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.A significant result of this work is the observation of mean PGA values of the order of 0.20 and 0.45 g, for return periods of 100 and 475 years, respectively, in the central area of the Tell Atlas.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore

This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Bangalore, South India. Analyses have been carried out considering the seismotectonic parameters of the region covering a radius of 350 km keeping Bangalore as the center. Seismic hazard parameter ‘b’ has been evaluated considering the available earthquake data using (1) Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) relationship and (2) Kijko and Sellevoll (1989, 1992) method utilizing extreme and complete catalogs. The ‘b’ parameter was estimated to be 0.62 to 0.98 from G–R relation and 0.87 ± 0.03 from Kijko and Sellevoll method. The results obtained are a little higher than the ‘b’ values published earlier for southern India. Further, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore region has been carried out considering six seismogenic sources. From the analysis, mean annual rate of exceedance and cumulative probability hazard curve for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) have been generated. The quantified hazard values in terms of the rock level peak ground acceleration (PGA) are mapped for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on a grid size of 0.5 km × 0.5 km. In addition, Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at rock level is also developed for the 5% damping corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) value of 0.121 g obtained from the present investigation is slightly lower (but comparable) than the PGA values obtained from the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) for the same area. However, the PGA value obtained in the current investigation is higher than PGA values reported in the global seismic hazard assessment program (GSHAP) maps of Bhatia et al. (1999) for the shield area.     

Seismic Hazard Estimation in Northern Algeria

In the present study, the seismic hazard in northern Algeria is estimated using both physical strain energy release and Gumbel's extreme values approaches. For six of the most industrial and populated cities in Algeria, seismic hazard is assessed and examined in greater detail. Gumbel's extreme values approach has been used to estimate seismic hazard in terms of magnitude and P.G.A at each point of an equispaced grid all over the north of Algeria. An average attenuation relationship for PGA has been provided using known relations which have been established in regions with similar attenuation characteristics.The results are presented mainly in the form of graphs and contour maps of magnitudes (respectively PGA) with a 60% probability of not being exceeded in the next 100 and 200 years. Globally, they give main features of northern Algeria in terms of zoning (as well as in terms of magnitude and in terms of PGA). They corroborate the ones obtained through other works, especially in the basin areas (Mitidja, Cheliff, Soumam and Constantine Basin).     

Seismic hazard map of Coimbatore using subsurface fault rupture

This study presents the future seismic hazard map of Coimbatore city, India, by considering rupture phenomenon. Seismotectonic map for Coimbatore has been generated using past earthquakes and seismic sources within 300 km radius around the city. The region experienced a largest earthquake of moment magnitude 6.3 in 1900. Available earthquakes are divided into two categories: one includes events having moment magnitude of 5.0 and above, i.e., damaging earthquakes in the region and the other includes the remaining, i.e., minor earthquakes. Subsurface rupture character of the region has been established by considering the damaging earthquakes and total length of seismic source. Magnitudes of each source are estimated by assuming the subsurface rupture length in terms of percentage of total length of sources and matched with reported earthquake. Estimated magnitudes match well with the reported earthquakes for a RLD of 5.2% of the total length of source. Zone of influence circles is also marked in the seismotectonic map by considering subsurface rupture length of fault associated with these earthquakes. As earthquakes relive strain energy that builds up on faults, it is assumed that all the earthquakes close to damaging earthquake have released the entire strain energy and it would take some time for the rebuilding of strain energy to cause a similar earthquake in the same location/fault. Area free from influence circles has potential for future earthquake, if there is seismogenic source and minor earthquake in the last 20 years. Based on this rupture phenomenon, eight probable locations have been identified and these locations might have the potential for the future earthquakes. Characteristic earthquake moment magnitude (M _w ) of 6.4 is estimated for the seismic study area considering seismic sources close to probable zones and 15% increased regional rupture character. The city is divided into several grid points at spacing of 0.01° and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) due to each probable earthquake is calculated at every grid point in city by using the regional attenuation model. The maximum of all these eight PGAs is taken for each grid point and the final PGA map is arrived. This map is compared to the PGA map developed based on the conventional deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) approach. The probable future rupture earthquakes gave less PGA than that of DSHA approach. The occurrence of any earthquake may be expected in near future in these eight zones, as these eight places have been experiencing minor earthquakes and are located in well-defined seismogenic sources.     

The comparison of the NDSHA, PSHA seismic hazard maps and real seismicity for the Italian territory

Rigorous and objective testing of seismic hazard assessments against the real seismic activity must become the necessary precondition for any responsible seismic risk estimation. Because seismic hazard maps seek to predict the shaking that would actually occur, the reference hazard maps for the Italian seismic code, obtained by probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), and the alternative ground shaking maps based on the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA), are cross-compared and tested against the real seismicity for the territory of Italy. The comparison between predicted intensities and those reported for past earthquakes shows that models generally provide rather conservative estimates, except for PGA with 10 % probability of being exceeded in 50 years, which underestimates the largest earthquakes. In terms of efficiency in predicting ground shaking, measured accounting for the rate of underestimated events and for the territorial extent of areas characterized by high seismic hazard, the NDSHA maps appear to outscore the PSHA ones.     

Developing a seismic source model for the Arabian Plate

A seismic source model is developed for the entire Arabian Plate, which has been affected by a number of earthquakes in the past and in recent times. Delineation and characterization of the sources responsible for these seismic activities are crucial inputs for any seismic hazard study. Available earthquake data and installation of local seismic networks in most of the Arabian Plate countries made it feasible to delineate the seismic sources that have a hazardous potential on the region. Boundaries of the seismic zones are essentially identified based upon the seismicity, available data on active faults and their potential to generate effective earthquakes, prevailing focal mechanism, available geophysical maps, and the volcanic activity in the Arabian Shield. Variations in the characteristics given by the above datasets provide the bases for delineating individual seismic zones. The present model consists of 57 seismic zones extending along the Makran Subduction Zone, Zagros Fold-Thrust Belt, Eastern Anatolian Fault, Aqaba-Dead Sea Fault, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Owen Fracture Zone, Arabian Intraplate, and a background seismic zone, which models the floating seismicity that is unrelated to any of the distinctly identified seismic zones. The features of the newly developed model make the seismic hazard results likely be more realistic.     

Seismic Hazard Assessment at Esfaraen‒Bojnurd Railway,North‒East of Iran

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the Esfarayen-Bojnurd railway using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) method. This method was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. Attenuation equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 1.2 × 1.2 km covering the study area, ground acceleration for every node was calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to return periods of 74, 475 and 2475 years.     

Strong ground-motion prediction and uncertainties estimation for Delhi,India

An endeavour has been made in the present study to estimate the uncertainties in strong ground-motion estimation for Delhi region. The strong ground motion (SGM) has been estimated using the logic-tree approach with equal weights chosen for the branches of the logic tree because a scientific preference has not yet been developed for the area. Coefficient of variation (COV) maps have been generated along with the mean SGM which aid in visualizing the effect of our lack of knowledge on the final results and highlight those areas where improved scientific understanding can have an impact on future hazard maps. Monte Carlo simulation has been sued to consider the effect of the variation in the seismic hazard parameters. The spectral ground generated for various return periods suggests higher values in the north-west region with a decreasing trend towards the south-east part of Delhi. The hazard gradient is highest at spectral acceleration (Sa) 0.1 s and lowest at spectral acceleration (Sa) 1.0 s for all return periods. The highest COV values (~0.60) were observed in case of PGA while lowest COV values (~0.15) were observed for spectral acceleration (Sa) 0.3 s at all return periods. One of the conspicuous observations is that the trends of COV maps have been found to be governed by the boundaries of the seismogenic sources. While COV values are governed mostly by Line Sources in smaller return and time periods, in higher return periods trend of the COV maps were found to be governed by the boundaries of the Areal Sources.     

Seismicity Characterization of Iran: A Multivariate Statistical Approach

This paper presents the results of two multivariate analysis techniques—principal component and cluster analysis—as they are applied to the seismicity characterization of Iran. The seismic data used in this study covers a period of 50 years, from the beginning of 1957 to the end of 2006. The values of eight seismic variables were calculated on a grid of equally spaced points at one geographic degree spacing in both latitude and longitude. The data matrix was analyzed using principal component and cluster analysis. Principal component analysis identified two significant components, introduced in this study as the Seismic Frequency Index (SFI) and the Seismic Severity Index (SSI), responsible for the data structure. The SFI and SSI explain 34.34 % and 32.33 % of the total variance of the data set, respectively, and allowed grouping of the selected variables according to their common features. The standardized data matrix was analyzed using Ward’s clustering method. The resulting seismicity pattern recognition maps of the region at three levels of similarity are presented. From these maps, differentiated seismic zones are outlined in detail and compared quantitatively. Comparison between the seismic zoning maps obtained in this analysis and the general tectonic map of the region indicates that the seismic zones are consistent with the tectonic zones of the region. This study presents the necessity and usefulness of multivariate analysis in evaluating and interpreting seismic data catalogues with the goal of obtaining more objective information about the seismicity pattern of regions.     

蒙特卡罗模拟在区域地震滑坡灾害评价中应用

2004年10月23日,日本新泻中越地区发生史上最强地震之一,震级达到Mw6.6。这次地震诱发上千个规模大小不一、形式各样的滑坡,造成一定的灾害损失和人员伤亡。因此,为了有效地避免和减轻这方面的灾害,有必要有效地、科学地预测和评价地震诱发滑坡的空间发生规律。为此以一定的地区作为研究对象,提出了蒙特卡罗随机模拟和Newmark滑动体位移分析法在区域地震斜坡失稳概率分析中的应用。该法充分考虑到岩土参数和相关地震参数空间变异性,结合地理信息系统空间分析的优势,以网格模型为基础,分析该区斜坡滑动体位移分布规律,并以2cm为失稳临界值探讨网格斜坡破坏的概率。实例证明,所提出的模型有效地预测了滑坡发生的空间分布规律。     

Seismic hazard studies for Gaziantep city in South Anatolia of Turkey

Seismic hazard studies were conducted for Gaziantep city in the South Anatolia of Turkey. For this purpose, a new attenuation relationship was developed using the data of Zaré and Bard and accelerations were predicted employing this new equation. Deterministic approach, total probability theorem and GIS methodology were all together utilized for the seismic assessments. Seismic hazard maps with 0.25° grid intervals considering the site conditions were produced by the GIS technique. The results indicated that the acceleration values by the GIS hazard modelings were matched with the ones from the deterministic approach, however, they were underestimated comparing with the total probability theorem. In addition, the GIS based seismic hazard maps showed that the current seismic map of Turkey fairly yields conservative acceleration values for the Gaziantep region. Therefore, the constructed GIS hazard models are offered as a base map for a further modification of the current seismic hazard map.     

Modeling of seismic hazard for Turkey using the recent neotectonic data

Recent developments in the neotectonic framework of Turkey introduced new tectonic elements necessitating the reconstruction of Turkey's seismic hazard map. In this regard, 14 seismic source zones were delineated. Maximum earthquake magnitudes for each seismic zones were determined using the fault rupture length approximation. Regression coefficients of the earthquake magnitude–frequency relationships for the seismic zones were compiled mostly from earlier works. Along with these data, a strong ground motion attenuation relationship developed by Joyner and Boore [Joyner, W.B., Boore, D.M., 1988. Measurement, characterization, and prediction of strong ground motion. Earthquake Engineering and Soil Dynamics, 2. Recent Advances Ground Motion Evaluation, pp. 43–102.] was utilized to model the seismic hazard for Turkey using the probabilistic approach. For the modeling, the “earthquake location uncertainty” concept was employed. A grid of 5106 points with 0.2° intervals was constituted for the area encompassed by the 25–46°E longitudes and 35–43°N latitudes. For the return periods of 100 and 475 years, the peak horizontal ground acceleration (pga) in bedrock was computed for each grid point. Isoacceleration maps for the return periods of 100 and 475 years were constructed by contouring the pga values at each node.     

Analysis of seismic hazard in landslide-prone regions: criteria and example for an area of Daunia (southern Italy)

In relation to the assessment of earthquake-induced landslide hazard, this paper discusses general principles and describes implementation criteria for seismic hazard estimates in landslide-prone regions. These criteria were worked out during the preparation of a hazard map belonging to the official Italian geological cartography and they are proposed as guidelines for future compilation of similar maps. In the presented case study, we used a procedure for the assessment of seismic hazard impact on slope stability adopting Arias intensity Ia as seismic shaking parameter and critical acceleration a _c as parameter representing slope strength to failures induced by seismic shaking. According to this procedure, after a preliminary comparison of estimated historical maximum values of Ia with values proposed in literature as landslide-triggering thresholds, a probabilistic approach, based on the Newmark’s model, is adopted: it allows to estimate the minimum critical acceleration a _c required for a slope to keep under a prefixed value, the probability of failures induced by seismic shakings expected in a given time interval. In this way, one can prepare seismic hazard maps where seismic shaking is expressed in an indirect way through a parameter (the critical acceleration) representing the “strength” that seismic shakings mobilise in slope materials (strength demand) with a prefixed exceedance probability. This approach was applied to an area of Daunia (Apulia—southern Italy) affected by frequent landslide phenomena. The obtained results indicate that shakings with a significant slope destabilisation potential can be expected particularly in the north-western part of the area, which is exposed to the seismic activity of Apennine tectonic structures.     

Seismic hazard assessment and rheological implications: a case study selected for cities of Saudi Arabia along the eastern coast of Red Sea

A probabilistic approach is used to evaluate the seismic hazard for 12 strategic cities in Saudi Arabia along the eastern coast of Red Sea. The focal depth variations controlled by rheological characteristics are taken into account for hazard calculations, and its creditability is tested through sensitivity analysis for hazard results. This study presents a neo-probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology in which the focal depth distribution of earthquakes within seismogenic layer is divided into three depth slices. These depth slices are based upon rheological characteristic of seismogenic layer. The hazard results are obtained using this depth-slice methodology and conventional approach in which uniform distribution of seismicity within seismogenic layer is assumed. The sensitivity analysis culminated in underestimation of hazard values in higher frequencies for uniform distribution of seismicity within seismogenic layer. Foregoing the observations recorded above, it can be concluded that the exploitation of depth-slices biased by the rheology to calculate hazard is relatively preferable in the situations demanding safety measures.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the sultanate of Oman

This study presents the results of the first probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the framework of logic tree for Oman. The earthquake catalogue was homogenized, declustered, and used to define seismotectonic source model that characterizes the seismicity of Oman. Two seismic source models were used in the current study; the first consists of 26 seismic source zones, while the second is expressing the alternative view that seismicity is uniform along the entire Makran and Zagros zones. The recurrence parameters for all the seismogenic zones were determined using the doubly bounded exponential distribution except the zones of Makran, which were modelled using the characteristic distribution. Maximum earthquakes were determined and the horizontal ground accelerations in terms of geometric mean were calculated using ground-motion prediction relationships developed based upon seismic data obtained from active tectonic environments similar to those surrounding Oman. The alternative seismotectonic source models, maximum magnitude, and ground-motion prediction relationships were weighted and used to account for the epistemic uncertainty. Hazard maps at rock sites were produced for 5?% damped spectral acceleration (SA) values at 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0 and 2.0?s spectral periods as well as peak ground acceleration (PGA) for return periods of 475 and 2,475?years. The highest hazard is found in Khasab City with maximum SA at 0.2?s spectral period reaching 243 and 397?cm/s² for return periods 475 and 2,475 years, respectively. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the choice of seismic source model and the ground-motion prediction equation influences the results most.     

Non-Poisson probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

The development of the new seismic hazard map of metropolitan Tehran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the non-Poisson recurrence time model. For this model, two maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of the region in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines. They display the non-Poisson probabilistic estimates of peak ground accelerations over bedrock for 10 and 63 % probability of exceedance in 50 years. To carry out the non-Poisson seismic hazard analysis, appropriate distributions of interoccurrence times of earthquakes were used for the seismotectonic provinces which the study region is located and then the renewal process was applied. In order to calculate the seismic hazard for different return periods in the probabilistic procedure, the study area encompassed by the 49.5–54.5°E longitudes and 34–37°N latitudes was divided into 0.1° intervals generating 1,350 grid points. PGA values for this region are estimated to be 0.30–0.32 and 0.16–0.17 g for 10 and 63 % probability of exceedance, respectively, in 50 years for bedrock condition.