Numerical simulations of the influence of the seasonal snow cover on the occurrence of permafrost at high latitudes

It has repeatedly been reported that snow cover is a dominating factor in determining the presence or absence of permafrost in the discontinuous and sporadic permafrost regions. The temperature at the snow-soil interface by the end of winter, known as the bottom temperature of winter snow (BTS) method, has been used to detect the existence of permafrost in European alpine regions when the maximum snow depth is about 1.0 m or greater. A critical snow thickness of about 50 cm or greater can prevent the development of permafrost in eastern Hudson Bay, Canada. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of snow cover on the presence or absence of permafrost in cold regions through numerical simulations. A one-dimensional heat transfer model with phase change and a snow cover regime is used to simulate energy exchange between deep soils and the atmosphere. The model has been validated against the in situ data in the Arctic. The simulation results indicate that both snow depth and the onset date of snow cover establishment are important parameters in relation to the presence or absence of permafrost. Early establishment of snow cover can make permafrost disappear, even with a relatively thin snow cover. Permafrost may survive when snow cover starts after the middle of December even with a snow thickness >1.0 m. This effect of snow cover on the ground thermal regime can be explained with reference to the pattern of seasonal temperature variation. Early establishment of snow cover enhances the insulating impact over the entire cold season, thus warming and eventually thawing the permafrost. The insulating effect is substantially reduced when snow cover starts relatively late and snowmelt in the spring creates a huge heat sink, resulting in a favorable combination for permafrost existence.     

Geocryological characteristics of the upper permafrost in a tundra-forest transition of the Indigirka River Valley,Russia

Understanding geocryological characteristics of frozen sediment, such as cryostratigraphy, ice content, and stable isotope ratio of ground ice, is essential to predicting consequences of projected permafrost thaw in response to global warming. These characteristics determine thermokarst extent and controls hydrological regime—and hence vegetation growth—especially in areas of high latitude; it also yields knowledge about the history of changes in the hydrological regime. To obtain these fundamental data, we sampled and analyzed unfrozen and frozen surficial sediments from 18 boreholes down to 1–2.3 m depth at five sites near Chokurdakh, Russia. Profiles of volumetric ice content in upper permafrost excluding wedge ice volume showed large variation, ranging from 40 to 96%, with an average of 75%. This large amount of ground ice was in the form of ice lenses or veins forming well-developed cryostructures, mainly due to freezing of frost-susceptible sediment under water-saturated condition. Our analysis of geocryological characteristics in frozen ground including ice content, cryostratigraphy, soil mechanical characteristics, organic matter content and components, and water stable isotope ratio provided information to reconstruct terrestrial paleo-environments and to estimate the influence of recent maximum thaw depth, microtopography, and flooding upon permafrost development in permafrost regions of NE Russia.     

A model of permafrost formation and occurrences in the intracontinental mountains

The proposed method of permafrost distribution mapping entails the use of a computer-based model that takes into account the specific conditions of arid mountains for permafrost formation and occurrence. In the intracontinental arid mountains, incoming short-wave solar radiation, mean annual temperature and evaporation are the main influences on the distribution of permafrost. Coarse debris is widespread in the high mountains and greatly influences the thermal state of the ground. The model can compute heat transfer in the coarse debris, which is considered a porous body, and it can be used for permafrost distribution mapping with various degrees of spatial resolution. As a result, the GIS-based map of permafrost distribution for the Bolshaya Almatinka River basin, Kazakhstan, was generated.     

Permafrost in Svalbard: a review of research history, climatic background and engineering challenges

This paper reviews permafrost in High Arctic Svalbard, including past and current research, climatic background, how permafrost is affected by climatic change, typical permafrost landforms and how changes in Svalbard permafrost may impact natural and human systems. Information on active layer dynamics, permafrost and ground ice characteristics and selected periglacial features is summarized from the recent literature and from unpublished data by the authors. Permafrost thickness ranges from less than 100 m near the coasts to more than 500 m in the highlands. Ground ice is present as rock glaciers, as ice-cored moraines, buried glacial ice, and in pingos and ice wedges in major valleys. Engineering problems of thaw-settlement and frost-heave are described, and the implications for road design and construction in Svalbard permafrost areas are discussed.     

Morphology and geotechnique of active-layer detachment failures in discontinuous and continuous permafrost, northern Canada

Fifty active-layer detachment failures triggered after forest fire in the discontinuous permafrost zone (central Mackenzie Valley, 65° N.) are compared to several hundred others caused by summer meteorological triggers in continuous permafrost (Fosheim Peninsula, Ellesmere Island, 80°N). Most failures fall into compact or elongated morphological categories. The compact type occur next to stream channels and have little internal disturbance of the displaced block, whereas the elongated types can develop on any part of the slope and exhibit greater internal deformation. Frequency distributions of length-to-width and length-to-depth ratios are similar at all sites. Positive pore pressures, expected theoretically, were measured in the field at the base of the thawing layer. Effective stress analysis could predict the instability of slopes in both areas, providing cohesion across the thaw plane was set to zero and/or residual strength parameters were employed. The location of the shear planes or zones in relation to the permafrost table and the degree of post-failure secondary movements (including headwall recession and thermokarst development within the failure track) differed between the localities, reflecting dissimilarity in the environmental triggers and in the degree of ground thermal disturbance.     

Using relict rockglaciers in GIS-based modelling to reconstruct Younger Dryas permafrost distribution patterns in the Err-Julier area,Swiss Alp

Differences in mean annual air temperature between the Younger Dryas period and today were estimated at the fronts of 32 relict rockglaciers in the Err-Julier area, eastern Swiss Alps. The analyses were based on a case-by-case calculation of direct incoming solar radiation and mean annual air temperature using a digital elevation model (DEM) and meteo data of recent years. Our results suggest that mean annual air temperature during the Younger Dryas was lowered by c. 3C to 4C, and that the lower limit of permafrost occurrence was depressed considerably more than glacier equilibrium lines. This indicates strongly reduced precipitation (30% to 40% reduction) and much larger abundance of mountain permafrost at that time. A model simulation of the corresponding spatial permafrost distribution during the Younger Dryas indicates that glaciers in the study area were mostly surrounded by permafrost at that time and probably had a polythermal structure of englacial temperatures.     

Modelling alpine permafrost distribution,Val de Rechy,Valais Alps (Switzerland)

The spatial distribution of the alpine permafrost is modelled in the uppermost part of Val de Rechy (Valais Alps, Switzerland) with the use of a geographical information system (GIS). Two empirical-statistical models are compared and their validity tested by a set of bottom temperature of winter snow (BTS) measurements carried out in the field. One model can simulate the spatial distribution of the permafrost facing ground warming consecutive to climatic change. Local/regional maps of simulated permafrost distribution as presented in this paper can be useful in the context of a preventive approach for natural hazards management.     

Channel network morphology and sediment dynamics under alternating periglacial and temperate regimes: a numerical simulation study

The occurrence of permafrost in a highly permeable catchment has a profound effect on runoff generation. The presence of permafrost effectively makes the subsoil impermeable. Therefore, overland flow can be the dominant runoff-generating process during periglacial conditions. The absence of permafrost will promote subsurface drainage and, therefore, saturation excess overland flow can become the dominant runoff-generating process during temperate conditions. In this paper, we present a numerical modelling study in which the effect of alternating climate-related phases of permafrost and nonpermafrost on catchment hydrology and geomorphology is investigated. Special attention is given to the characteristics of the channel network being formed, and the sediment yield from these catchments. We find that channel networks expand under permafrost conditions and contract under nonpermafrost conditions. A change from permafrost to nonpermafrost conditions is characterised by a decrease in sediment yield, while a change towards permafrost conditions is marked by a peak in sediment yield. This peak is explained by the build-up of a reservoir of erodible sediment during the nonpermafrost phase. The driving force behind this reservoir build-up may be local base-level change due to tectonic uplift or eustacy. We present a number of experiments, which show the details of this process. The results are in line with existing reconstructions of climate and fluvial dynamics during the Pleistocene in Europe and offer a new explanation to these observations.     

Regional modelling of present,past and future potential distribution of discontinuous permafrost based on a rock glacier inventory in the Bagnes‐Hérémence area (Western Swiss Alps)

A regional model was used to draw the permafrost distribution in the 200 km 2 of the Bagnes-Hérémence area (Western Swiss Alps). The model is based on the fact that permafrost distribution depends mainly on altitude and orientation and that the minimal altitude of active/inactive rock glaciers can be used as an indicator of the lower limit of discontinuous permafrost. The lower limit of relict rock glaciers is also used as an indicator of past distribution of permafrost. An inventory of rock glaciers was therefore made in the study area. The lower limit of permafrost during the Younger Dryas was determined by comparing the position of relict rock glaciers and glacier extension during the Older Dryas. The model was then applied to four periods (Younger Dryas, Little Ice Age, current period and future) in order to show the temporal evolution of permafrost distribution and glacier extension.     

Permafrost distribution modelling in the mountains of the Mediterranean: Corral del Veleta,Sierra Nevada,Spain

A statistical model for automated mapping of the spatial distribution of permafrost in the area of Corral del Veleta in south-east Spain (3703' N, 322' W; 3398 m a.s.l.) was developed and applied. The model uses a relationship between permafrost occurrence as indicated by BTS measurements, and variables such as altitude, solar radiation and summer snow cover. The model was implemented within a geographical information system (GIS) and determines the spatial distribution of probable permafrost in Corral del Veleta. Validation was achieved by comparing the predicted permafrost distribution with the results of recent fieldwork, such as geomorphic mapping, geophysical soundings and ground temperature logging.     

Assessment of geomorphic hazards in connection with permafrost occurrence in the Zugspitze area (Bavarian Alps, Germany)

In the Zugspitze area (Bavarian Alps, Germany), permafrost conditions are present in limestone bedrock and in regolith. Distribution is strongly dependent on topography in the east–west oriented mountain crest with steep north- and south-facing slopes. Numerous structures mainly for tourist purposes (cable car and recreation buildings, ski-lift masts, rack-railway tunnel, tunnel with supply facilities) are situated in the area, and several of them are placed on ground with permafrost. Results from a temperature measurement programme and distribution modelling show that for some of these constructions, the effects of permafrost degradation have to be considered in terms of stability of the foundations.The permafrost limit is close to the summit crest, and therefore, stability evaluations for the constructions in this area have to bear in mind the possible warming or even melting of ice within the bedrock crevasses caused by climate warming. Stability of the foundations as well as stability of rock walls in this area will probably be affected by a shifting of the permafrost limit. Constructions in the Zugspitzplatt area are already affected by the melting ground ice, and stabilizing measures have to be evaluated for several foundations where subsidence is likely to occur.Besides the local results, the study provides for the first time data on permafrost distribution in the northern Alpine margin based on standard methods of BTS measurements and numerical modelling.     

Permafrost distribution in the Posets massif,Central Pyrenees

The Posets massif is located in the Central Pyrenees and reaches a height of 3363 m a.s.l. at the Posets peak, the second highest massif in the Pyrenees. Geomorphological maps of scales 1:25000 and 1:10000, BTS (bottom temperature of winter snow), ground measurements and snow poles were used to observe the more representative periglacial active landform association, ground thermal regime, the winter snow cover evolution and basal temperatures of snow. The main active periglacial landforms and processes related to the ground thermal regime and snow cover were studied. Mountain permafrost up to 2700 m a.s.l. on northexposed slopes and up to 2900 m a.s.l. on south-exposed slopes were detected. Three permafrost belts were differentiated: sporadic permafrost between 2700 and 2800 m a.s.l. and between 2850 and 3000 m a.s.l., discontinuous permafrost between 2800 and 2950 and between 2950 and 3050, and continuous permafrost up to 2900 m a.s.l. and up to 3050 m a.s.l. on northern and southern slopes, respectively.     

疏勒河源区的多年冻土

疏勒河流域地处祁连山西段,气候极端干旱.2008年6月在疏勒河源区海拔3729-3890 m的不同地面、地形条件下在5个点上布设了10眼钻孔进行钻探勘察,并布设测温管定期监测地温.根据勘察和测温资料,确定了疏勒河流域内多年冻土下界高程在3750 m左右,查明河谷中松散地层以冲积层为主,多为粗颗粒土,多年冻土含冰量普遍较低.局地因素对多年冻土状态影响明显.其中坡度差异可以使地温相差0.5℃.坡向的差异可以使地温相差达1.0℃;地层水分含量对浅层地温的影响甚至超过坡向的影响;地面状态的差异,造成地温、活动层厚度等方面的显著差异.与祁连山中东部地区相比,疏勒河源区多年冻土几乎没有生态过程的影响,多年冻土形成和保存受气候驱动,基本上代表了一类干旱气候条件下的多年冻土特征.     

积沙影响下伏冻土的水热耦合模型研究

青藏高原地区冻土正呈退化趋势,除气候变化、人为活动的影响外,沙漠化也被认为是冻土退化的原因之一,但仍存在较大争议。基于不饱和土渗流和热传导理论,结合CoLM和Coup-Model模型,初步构建了积沙-冻土-水热概念模型和耦合模型。并在两模型的基础上,讨论了沙层反射率、积沙体热容量、积沙体厚度和沙的传热率等参数对下伏冻土的热影响过程。结果表明,沙层的反射率、地面发射率均高于天然地表,沙层接受的热量较天然地表偏少;积沙地表下的沙层和活动层能截留更多热量,使冻结层获得的热量相对减少;沙的导热性较差,导致积沙地表下地温变化出现延迟,从而延缓冻土退化;同时,积沙无论厚薄,都将起到延缓冻土退化的作用。因而,沙漠化对青藏高原冻土退化的影响可能较小,但全面揭示沙漠化对冻土的影响仍需深入研究。     

Investigation of mountain permafrost in the Kozia Dolinka valley,Tatra Mountains,Poland

The Kozia Dolinka valley lies at an altitude above 1900 m a.s.l. on the northern slope of the main ridge of the High Tatra Mountains. Mountain permafrost occurrences were studied with the use of BTS, infrared imaging, water and ground temperature measurements and DC resistivity soundings. The data suggest the existence of isolated patches of permafrost. The lowest observed bottom temperature of winter snow values was in the order of-10C. DC soundings revealed the existence of a high resistivity layer of limited extent. Permafrost seasonal monitoring was conducted with resistivity soundings. Measurements were carried out in spring-autumn 1999, when a distinct change in permafrost thickness was observed.     

黄河源区多年冻土温度及厚度研究新进展

利用新布设的冻土孔及原有冻土资料,分析黄河源区冻土温度和厚度的空间分布。源区实测多年冻土年均地温最低为-1.81℃,冻土最厚74 m,均位于巴颜喀拉山北坡的查拉坪。214国道(K445-K604段)沿线多为高温多年冻土(年均地温>-1℃),但巴山北坡海拔4 520 m、布青山海拔4 300 m以上,年均地温低于-0.5℃。巴山北坡海拔4 610 m、布青山海拔4 420 m以上,年均地温低于-1℃。巴山北坡海拔每升高100 m,年均地温减少0.47~0.75℃,冻土厚度增加16~25 m;纬度向北增加1°,年均地温减少0.85℃,冻土厚度增加20~30 m。     

斯瓦尔巴群岛冰川学研究进展与我国北极冰川监测系统建设

北极斯瓦尔巴群岛冰川大多数属于亚极地型(sub-polar)或多热型(polythermal)。Austre Br(?)ggerbreen和Midre Lovénbreen冰川(＜10km~2)长时间系列物质平衡研究显示,自小冰期结束以来几乎所有的观测年中夏季消融比冬季积累更大,导致冰体稳定地减小;而面积更大、海拔高度更高的冰川如Kongsvegen冰川(105km~2)则更加接近稳定态的平衡。斯瓦尔巴群岛冰川流动速率一般较低,但跃动相当频繁,控制跃动型冰川空间分布的因素包括冰川长度、基底岩性和多热场。可通过冰川水文特征、钻孔温度测量和无线电回波探测获取斯瓦尔巴群岛冰川热场的信息。斯瓦尔巴群岛冰川的低流速和多热性结构对冰川上的排水系统相当重要,整个群岛淡水径流的四个主要来源分别是冰川消融、雪融化、夏季降雨和冰崩解,经验回归方法和模式方法用于计算淡水径流量。因夏季融水渗浸作用、采样分辨率低和化学成分分析有限,早期斯瓦尔巴群岛冰芯的准确定年受到严重影响,但最近的研究显示,来自斯瓦尔巴群岛冰帽的冰芯数据仍然能够提供重要的气候和环境信息。通过我国北极黄河站2005年度科学考察,我们已初步建立了Austre Lovénbreen冰川和Pedersenbreen冰川监测系统,并计划在Austre Lovénbreen冰川进行钻孔温度测量、冰川气象要素观测、冰川前缘水文观测以及冰川厚度和内部结构测量,重点开展斯瓦尔巴群岛冰川基本特征和发育条件、冰川表面能量和物质平衡、冰川波动与气候变化关系、淡水径流年际和季节性变化和气/雪/冰界面过程等方面的研究。     

Recent air temperature changes in the permafrost landscapes of northeastern Eurasia

In the last two decades, climatic change has resulted in increased cryogenic activity in northeastern Eurasia, with adverse consequences for landscapes and socio-economic systems in the permafrost zone.The main purpose of this study was to assess the recent phases of warming, starting with Arctic warming. We performed a spatiotemporal analysis of climatic conditions during phases of maximum warming (i.e., 1935–1945, 1988–1995, and 2005–2009) in northeastern Eurasia and compared the magnitude of warming and its effect on permafrost among these critical periods. Our observations of permafrost landscape dynamics confirmed that the last two warming phases have played major roles in changing the environment.Data analysis has revealed regional patterns in the intensity of warming. Areas south of 60–62° latitude experienced no rise in air temperature during the Arctic warming period (1935–1945), whereas during 1988–1995, the center of warming shifted to the south of northeastern Eurasia. The last phase of warming (2005–2009) was characterized by maximum values of mean annual air temperature and the thawing index, and a decrease in the freezing index throughout northeastern Eurasia.     

GIS-simulation of the spatial distribution of snow cover and observed ground temperatures in the Daisetsu Mountains,Japan

This paper describes one geometrical method of simulating the spatial distribution of snow cover. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and precise Digital Elevation Model (DEM) were used in the simulation. The model is based on empirical parameters called coefficients depending on slope aspect and inclination. As a result, this model predicts that windward convex terrains remain snow-free during winter. This snow cover distribution was validated by usage of an air photograph taken in early spring, and the distribution of vegetation patches which represent the outer fringes of snow covered areas. Low ground temperatures together with high DC resistivities, which suggest the presence of permafrost, were identified in simulated snow-free areas.     

A comparison of permafrost prediction models along a section of Trail Ridge Road, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA

The distribution of mountain permafrost along Trail Ridge Road (TRR) in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, was modeled using ‘frost numbers’ and a ‘temperature of permafrost model’ (TTOP) in order to assess the accuracy of prediction models. The TTOP model is based on regional observations of air temperature and heat transfer functions involving vegetation, soil, and snow; whereas the frost number model is based on site-specific ratios of ground temperature measurements of frozen and thawed degree-days. Thirty HOBO© temperature data loggers were installed near the surface as well as at depth (30 to 85 cm). From mid-July 2008 to 2010, the mean annual soil temperature (MAST) for all surface sites was − 1.5 °C. Frost numbers averaged 0.56; TTOP averaged − 1.8 °C. The MAST was colder on western-facing slopes at high elevations. Surface and deeper probes had similar MASTs; however, deeper probes had less daily and seasonal variation. Another model developed at the regional scale based on proxy indicators of permafrost (rock glaciers and land cover) classified 5.1 km² of permafrost within the study area, whereas co-kriging interpolations of frost numbers and TTOP data indicated 2.0 km² and 4.6 km² of permafrost, respectively. Only 0.8 km² were common among all three models. Three boreholes drilled within 2 m of TRR indicate that permafrost does not exist at these locations despite each borehole being classified as containing permafrost by at least one model. Addressing model uncertainty is important because nutrients stored within frozen or frost-affected soils can be released and impact alpine water bodies. The uncertainty also exposes two fundamental problems: empirical models designed for high latitudes are not necessarily applicable to mountain permafrost, and the presence of mountain permafrost in the alpine tundra of the Colorado Front Range has not been validated.