The Djidjelli (Algeria) earthquakes of 21 and 22 August 1856 (I<Subscript>0</Subscript> VIII,IX) and related tsunami effects Revisited

New historical data from primary sources, allow us to revisit the Djidjelli earthquakes of 21 and 22 August 1856 (I₀ VIII, IX respectively). These two large seismic events are among the most significant events that have affected the North African coast. They have caused extensive damage and generated a tsunami that propagated at several harbours of the western Mediterranean Sea. The effects of each earthquake are analysed from all documentary source materials, emphasising the confrontation of observations and data for an accurate reconstruction of the macroseismic field of both events. The method used provides a more precise way to determine the characteristics of the Djidjelli earthquakes.     

Slip Distribution and Seismic Moment of the 2010 and 1960 Chilean Earthquakes Inferred from Tsunami Waveforms and Coastal Geodetic Data

The slip distribution and seismic moment of the 2010 and 1960 Chilean earthquakes were estimated from tsunami and coastal geodetic data. These two earthquakes generated transoceanic tsunamis, and the waveforms were recorded around the Pacific Ocean. In addition, coseismic coastal uplift and subsidence were measured around the source areas. For the 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake, inversion of the tsunami waveforms recorded at nearby coastal tide gauge and Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) stations combined with coastal geodetic data suggest two asperities: a northern one beneath the coast of Constitucion and a southern one around the Arauco Peninsula. The total fault length is approximately 400 km with seismic moment of 1.7 × 10²² Nm (Mw 8.8). The offshore DART tsunami waveforms require fault slips beneath the coasts, but the exact locations are better estimated by coastal geodetic data. The 22 May 1960 earthquake produced very large, ~30 m, slip off Valdivia. Joint inversion of tsunami waveforms, at tide gauge stations in South America, with coastal geodetic and leveling data shows total fault length of ~800 km and seismic moment of 7.2 × 10²² Nm (Mw 9.2). The seismic moment estimated from tsunami or joint inversion is similar to previous estimates from geodetic data, but much smaller than the results from seismic data analysis.     

An Overview of the 28 October 2012 M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.7 Earthquake in Haida Gwaii,Canada: A Tsunamigenic Thrust Event Along a Predominantly Strike-Slip Margin

The boundary between the Pacific and North America plates along Canada’s west coast is one of the most seismically active regions of Canada, and is where Canada’s two largest instrumentally recorded earthquakes have occurred. Although this is a predominantly strike-slip transform fault boundary, there is a component of oblique convergence between the Pacific and North America plates off Haida Gwaii. The 2012 M_w 7.7 Haida Gwaii earthquake was a thrust event that generated a tsunami with significant run up of over 7 m in several inlets on the west coast of Moresby Island (several over 6 m, with a maximum of 13 m). Damage from this earthquake and tsunami was minor due to the lack of population and vulnerable structures on this coast.     

The 11 March 2011 Tohoku Tsunami Survey in Rikuzentakata and Comparison with Historical Events

On 11 March 2011, a moment magnitude M _w = 9.0 earthquake occurred off the Japan Tohoku coast causing catastrophic damage and loss of human lives. In the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, we conducted the reconnaissance survey in the city of Rikuzentakata, Japan. In comparison with three previous historical tsunamis impacting the same region, the 2011 event presented the largest values with respect to the tsunami height, the inundation area and the inundation distance. A representative tsunami height of 15 m was recorded in Rikuzentakata, with increased heights of 20 m around rocky headlands. In terms of the inundation area, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami exceeded by almost 2.6 times the area flooded by the 1960 Chilean tsunami, which ranks second among the four events compared. The maximum tsunami inundation distance was 8.1 km along the Kesen River, exceeding the 1933 Showa and 1960 Chilean tsunami inundations by factors of 6.2 and 2.7, respectively. The overland tsunami inundation distance was less than 2 km. The tsunami inundation height linearly decreased along the Kesen River at a rate of approximately 1 m/km. Nevertheless, the measured inland tsunami heights exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. A designated “tsunami control forest” planted with a cross-shore width of about 200 m along a 2 km stretch of Rikuzentakata coastline was completely overrun and failed to protect the local community during this extreme event. Similarly, many designated tsunami shelters were too low and were overwashed by tsunami waves, thereby failing to provide shelter for evacuees—a risk that had been underestimated.     

Tsunami Source of the 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia Earthquake Inferred from Tsunami Field Survey and Waveform Modeling

The 2010 Mentawai earthquake (magnitude 7.7) generated a destructive tsunami that caused more than 500 casualties in the Mentawai Islands, west of Sumatra, Indonesia. Seismological analyses indicate that this earthquake was an unusual “tsunami earthquake,” which produces much larger tsunamis than expected from the seismic magnitude. We carried out a field survey to measure tsunami heights and inundation distances, an inversion of tsunami waveforms to estimate the slip distribution on the fault, and inundation modeling to compare the measured and simulated tsunami heights. The measured tsunami heights at eight locations on the west coasts of North and South Pagai Island ranged from 2.5 to 9.3 m, but were mostly in the 4–7 m range. At three villages, the tsunami inundation extended more than 300 m. Interviews of local residents indicated that the earthquake ground shaking was less intense than during previous large earthquakes and did not cause any damage. Inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at nine coastal tide gauges, a nearby GPS buoy, and a DART station indicated a large slip (maximum 6.1 m) on a shallower part of the fault near the trench axis, a distribution similar to other tsunami earthquakes. The total seismic moment estimated from tsunami waveform inversion was 1.0 × 10²¹ Nm, which corresponded to M_w 7.9. Computed coastal tsunami heights from this tsunami source model using linear equations are similar to the measured tsunami heights. The inundation heights computed by using detailed bathymetry and topography data and nonlinear equations including inundation were smaller than the measured ones. This may have been partly due to the limited resolution and accuracy of publically available bathymetry and topography data. One-dimensional run-up computations using our surveyed topography profiles showed that the computed heights were roughly similar to the measured ones.     

Geologic Setting, Field Survey and Modeling of the Chimbote, Northern Peru, Tsunami of 21 February 1996

—Whereas the coast of Peru south of 10°S is historically accustomed to tsunamigenic earthquakes, the subduction zone north of 10°S has been relatively quiet. On 21 February 1996 at 21:51 GMT (07:51 local time) a large, tsunamigenic earthquake (Harvard estimate M _w = 7.5) struck at 9.6°S, 79.6°W, approximately 130 km off the northern coast of Peru, north of the intersection of the Mendaña fracture zone with the Peru–Chile trench. The likely mechanism inferred from seismic data is a low-angle thrust consistent with subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the South American plate, with relatively slow rupture characteristics. Approximately one hour after the main shock, a damaging tsunami reached the Peruvian coast, resulting in twelve deaths. We report survey measurements, from 7.7°S to 11°S, on maximum runup (2–5m, between 8 and 10°S), maximum inundation distances, which exceeded 500 m, and tsunami sediment deposition patterns. Observations and numerical simulations show that the hydrodynamic characteristics of this event resemble those of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami. Differences in climate, vegetation and population make these two tsunamis seem more different than they were. This 1996 Chimbote event was the first large (M _w >7) subduction-zone (interplate) earthquake between about 8 and 10°S, in Peru, since the 17th century, and bears resemblance to the 1960 (M _w 7.6) event at 6.8°S. Together these two events are apparently the only large subduction-zone earthquakes in northern Peru since 1619 (est. latitude 8°S, est. M _w 7.8); these two tsunamis also each produced more fatalities than any other tsunami in Peru since the 18th century. We concur with Pelayo and Wiens (1990, 1992) that this subduction zone, in northern Peru, resembles others where the subduction zone is only weakly coupled, and convergence is largely aseismic. Subduction-zone earthquakes, when they occur, are slow, commonly shallow, and originate far from shore (near the tip of the wedge). Thus they are weakly felt, and the ensuing tsunamis are unanticipated by local populations. Although perhaps a borderline case, the Chimbote tsunami clearly is another wake-up example of a "tsunami earthquake."     

Numerical Modeling and Observations of Tsunami Waves in Alberni Inlet and Barkley Sound, British Columbia

Alberni Inlet is a long and narrow fjord adjacent to Barkley Sound on the Pacific Coast of Vancouver Island, Canada. Port Alberni, at the head of the inlet, was affected in 1964 by the largest Pacific tsunami waves in Canadian history. We use observations and results from two numerical models to investigate the resonant characteristics of the region and amplification of tsunami waves in Barkley Sound and Alberni Inlet. The first model (A) was forced at its open boundary with a stationary autoregressive signal, similar to the observed background noise. The second model (B) used an initial sea-level deformation from a potential earthquake off California in the southern segment of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, producing transient tsunami waves. Spectral, cross-spectral and frequency-time (f-t) analyses of the observations were used to examine the resonant properties and topographic response of the local area. The respective results show large admittance functions over a wide 0.5–0.9 cph frequency band, implying a low Q factor but high amplification of arriving waves. This unusual behavior is a result of two effects: A quarter-wave resonance of the system for its fundamental Helmholtz mode and amplification due to the narrowing of the channel cross section from Barkley Sound to Alberni Inlet. The model A numerical results agree favorably with the observations, indicating an energetic resonant mode at frequency of ~0.53 cph (112 min), with its nodal line located near the entrance to Barkley Sound and amplification factor value close to 12. The results from the tsunami propagation model (B) yield spectral characteristics similar to those from the model A and from the observations. The maximum tsunami current speed for this scenario is 2.4 ms^?1 in Sproat Narrows, which divides Alberni Inlet into two parts, while the largest computed wave height is 1.6 m in the northern Alberni Inlet, in the area of Port Alberni.     

Satellite Data for a Rapid Assessment of Tsunami Inundation Areas after the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

The M _w = 9.0 earthquake that occurred off the coast of Japan’s Tohoku region produced a great tsunami causing catastrophic damage and loss of life. Within hours of the tsunami event, satellite data were readily available and massive media coverage immediately circulated thousands of photographs and videos of the tsunami. Satellite data allow a rapid assessment of inundated areas where access can be difficult either as a result of damaged infrastructure (e.g., roads, bridges, ports, airports) or because of safety issues (e.g., the hazard at Nuclear Power Plant at Fukushima). In this study, we assessed in a day tsunami inundation distances and runup heights using satellite data (very high-resolution satellite images from the GeoEye1 satellite and from the DigitalGlobe worldview, SRTM and ASTER GDEM) of the Tohoku region, Northeast Japan. Field survey data by Japanese and other international scientists validated our results. This study focused on three different locations. Site selection was based on coastal morphologies and the distance to the tsunami source (epicenter). Study sites are Rikuzentakata, Oyagawahama, and Yagawahama in the Oshika Peninsula, and the Sendai coastal plain (Sendai City to Yamamoto City). Maximum inundation distance (6 km along the river) and maximum runup (39 m) at Rikuzentakata estimated from satellite data agree closely with the 39.7 m inundation reported in the field. Here the ria coastal morphology and horn shaped bay enhanced the tsunami runup and effects. The Sendai coastal plain shows large inundation distances (6 km) and lower runup heights. Natori City and Wakabayashi Ward, on the Sendai plain, have similar runup values (12 and 16 m, respectively) obtained from SRTM data; these are comparable to those obtained from field surveys (12 and 9.5 m). However, at Yagawahama and Oyagawahama, Miyagi Prefecture, both SRTM and ASTER data provided maximum runup heights (41 to 45 m and 33 to 34 m, respectively), which are higher than those measured in the field (about 27 m). This difference in DEM and field data is associated with ASTER and SRTM DEM’s pixel size and vertical accuracy, the latter being dependent on ground coverage, slope, aspect and elevation. Countries with less access to technology and infrastructure can benefit from the use of satellite imagery and freely available DEMs for an initial, pre-field surveys, rapid estimate of inundated areas, distances and runup, and for assisting in hazard management and mitigation after a natural disaster.     

Manifestation of the 2011 Great Tohoku Tsunami on the Coast of the Kuril Islands: A Tsunami with Ice

The tsunami generated by the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (M _w = 9.0) reached maximum heights of about 5 m along the coast of the Kuril Islands. The most essential feature of this event was sea ice about 0.5 m thick moved by the ocean water. The tsunami did not cause any essential damage on the Kuril Islands, but significantly affected coastal zones and produced interesting effects. The problem of a tsunami accompanied by marine ice is discussed and illustrated with photos.     

The Effect of the Great Barrier Reef on the Propagation of the 2007 Solomon Islands Tsunami Recorded in Northeastern Australia

The effect of offshore coral reefs on the impact from a tsunami remains controversial. For example, field surveys after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami indicate that the energy of the tsunami was reduced by natural coral reef barriers in Sri Lanka, but there was no indication that coral reefs off Banda Aceh, Indonesia had any effect on the tsunami. In this paper, we investigate whether the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) offshore Queensland, Australia, may have weakened the tsunami impact from the 2007 Solomon Islands earthquake. The fault slip distribution of the 2007 Solomon Islands earthquake was firstly obtained by teleseismic inversion. The tsunami was then propagated to shallow water just offshore the coast by solving the linear shallow water equations using a staggered grid finite-difference method. We used a relatively high resolution (approximately 250 m) bathymetric grid for the region just off the coast containing the reef. The tsunami waveforms recorded at tide gauge stations along the Australian coast were then compared to the results from the tsunami simulation when using both the realistic 250 m resolution bathymetry and with two grids having fictitious bathymetry: One in which the the GBR has been replaced by a smooth interpolation from depths outside the GBR to the coast (the “No GBR” grid), and one in which the GBR has been replaced by a flat plane at a depth equal to the mean water depth of the GBR (the “Average GBR” grid). From the comparison between the synthetic waveforms both with and without the Great Barrier Reef, we found that the Great Barrier Reef significantly weakened the tsunami impact. According to our model, the coral reefs delayed the tsunami arrival time by 5–10 minutes, decreased the amplitude of the first tsunami pulse to half or less, and lengthened the period of the tsunami.     

Observations and Impacts from the 2010 Chilean and 2011 Japanese Tsunamis in California (USA)

The coast of California was significantly impacted by two recent teletsunami events, one originating off the coast of Chile on February 27, 2010 and the other off Japan on March 11, 2011. These tsunamis caused extensive inundation and damage along the coast of their respective source regions. For the 2010 tsunami, the NOAA West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issued a state-wide Tsunami Advisory based on forecasted tsunami amplitudes ranging from 0.18 to 1.43 m with the highest amplitudes predicted for central and southern California. For the 2011 tsunami, a Tsunami Warning was issued north of Point Conception and a Tsunami Advisory south of that location, with forecasted amplitudes ranging from 0.3 to 2.5 m, the highest expected for Crescent City. Because both teletsunamis arrived during low tide, the potential for significant inundation of dry land was greatly reduced during both events. However, both events created rapid water-level fluctuations and strong currents within harbors and along beaches, causing extensive damage in a number of harbors and challenging emergency managers in coastal jurisdictions. Field personnel were deployed prior to each tsunami to observe and measure physical effects at the coast. Post-event survey teams and questionnaires were used to gather information from both a physical effects and emergency response perspective. During the 2010 tsunami, a maximum tsunami amplitude of 1.2 m was observed at Pismo Beach, and over $3-million worth of damage to boats and docks occurred in nearly a dozen harbors, most significantly in Santa Cruz, Ventura, Mission Bay, and northern Shelter Island in San Diego Bay. During the 2011 tsunami, the maximum amplitude was measured at 2.47 m in Crescent City Harbor with over $50-million in damage to two dozen harbors. Those most significantly affected were Crescent City, Noyo River, Santa Cruz, Moss Landing, and southern Shelter Island. During both events, people on docks and near the ocean became at risk to injury with one fatality occurring during the 2011 tsunami at the mouth of the Klamath River. Evaluations of maximum forecasted tsunami amplitudes indicate that the average percent error was 38 and 28 % for the 2010 and 2011 events, respectively. Due to these recent events, the California tsunami program is developing products that will help: (1) the maritime community better understand tsunami hazards within their harbors, as well as if and where boats should go offshore to be safe, and (2) emergency managers develop evacuation plans for relatively small “Warning” level events where extensive evacuation is not required. Because tsunami-induced currents were responsible for most of the damage in these two events, modeled current velocity estimates should be incorporated into future forecast products from the warning centers.     

The 2014 Mihoub earthquake (Mw4.3), northern Algeria: empirical Green’s function analysis of the mainshock and the largest aftershock

On November 15, 2014, an Mw4.3 earthquake occurred 2 km west of Mihoub village, 60 km SE of Algiers. In this study, we retrieve the relative source-time functions of the mainshock and largest aftershock (Mw3.9) for rupture analysis using the empirical Green’s function method. The two events are nearly colocated with a smaller aftershock (Mw3.5), which is treated as the empirical Green’s function. Moreover, these three events have similar focal mechanisms, suggesting that deconvolution is well posed in this case. The three events were recorded by nine stations of the Algerian permanent network. We use mainly P-wave data. The focal mechanism solution shows dominant reverse faulting with a strong strike-slip component. The two nodal planes align almost E-W, dipping to the south, and NNE-SSW, dipping to the NW, respectively; the fault and auxiliary planes cannot be resolved from hypocenter locations alone because too few aftershocks were recorded by the permanent network. The results show unilateral rupture propagation to the ENE and complex rupture with multiple episodes for the mainshock. The largest aftershock shows similar behavior with slightly less pronounced directivity at some sites. The rupture directivity for the mainshock is estimated at about N66° E, and the rupture velocity is Vr = 0.66β. The E-W nodal plane of the best-fit focal mechanism is the preferred fault plane because it best agrees with the directivity direction and is consistent with the E-W faulting that dominates in the region.     

Observation and Modeling of the January 2009 West Papua, Indonesia Tsunami

We modeled a tsunami from the West Papua, Indonesia earthquakes on January 3, 2009 (M _w?=?7.7). After the first earthquake, tsunami alerts were issued in Indonesia and Japan. The tsunami was recorded at many stations located in and around the Pacific Ocean. In particular, at Kushimoto on Kii Peninsula, the maximum amplitude was 43?cm, larger than that at Manokwari on New Guinea Island, near the epicenter. The tsunami was recorded on near-shore wave gauges, offshore GPS sensors and deep-sea bottom pressure sensors. We have collected more than 150 records and used 72 stations?? data with clear tsunami signals for the tsunami source modeling. We assumed two fault models (single fault and five subfaults) which are located to cover the aftershock area. The estimated average slip on the single fault model (80?×?40?km) is 0.64?m, which yields a seismic moment of 1.02?×?10²⁰?Nm (M _w?=?7.3). The observed tsunami waveforms at most stations are well explained by this model.     

Tsunamis on the Pacific Coast of Canada Recorded in 1994–2007

In the last 15 years there have been 16 tsunami events recorded at tide stations on the Pacific Coast of Canada. Eleven of these events were from distant sources covering almost all regions of the Pacific, as well as the December 26, 2004 Sumatra tsunami in the Indian Ocean. Three tsunamis were generated by local or regional earthquakes and two were meteorological tsunamis. The earliest four events, which occurred in the period 1994–1996, were recorded on analogue recorders; these tsunami records were recently re-examined, digitized and thoroughly analysed. The other 12 tsunami events were recorded using digital high-quality instruments, with 1-min sampling interval, installed on the coast of British Columbia (B.C.) in 1998. All 16 tsunami events were recorded at Tofino on the outer B.C. coast, and some of the tsunamis were recorded at eight or more stations. The tide station at Tofino has been in operation for 100 years and these recent observations add to the dataset of tsunami events compiled previously by S.O. Wigen (1983) for the period 1906–1980. For each of the tsunami records statistical analysis was carried out to determine essential tsunami characteristics for all events (arrival times, maximum amplitudes, frequencies and wave-train structure). The analysis of the records indicated that significant background noise at Langara, a key northern B.C. Tsunami Warning station located near the northern end of the Queen Charlotte Islands, creates serious problems in detecting tsunami waves. That station has now been moved to a new location with better tsunami response. The number of tsunami events observed in the past 15 years also justified re-establishing a tide gauge at Port Alberni, where large tsunami wave amplitudes were measured in March 1964. The two meteorological events are the first ever recorded on the B.C. coast. Also, there have been landslide generated tsunami events which, although not recorded on any coastal tide gauges, demonstrate, along with the recent investigation of a historical catastrophic event, the significant risk that landslide generated tsunami pose to coastal and inland regions of B.C.     

Coastal Impacts of the March 11th Tohoku, Japan Tsunami in the Galapagos Islands

On March 11, 2011 at 5:46:23 UTC (March 10 11:46:23 PM Galapagos Local Time), the M_w 9.0 Great East Japan Earthquake occurred near the Tohoku region off the east coast of Japan, spawning a Pacific-wide tsunami. Approximately 12,000 km away, the Galapagos Islands experienced moderate tsunami impacts, including flooding, structural damage, and strong currents. In this paper, we present observations and measurements of the tsunami effects in the Galapagos, focusing on the four largest islands in the archipelago; (from west to east) Isabela, Santiagio, Santa Cruz, and San Cristobal. Access to the tsunami affected areas was one of the largest challenges of the field survey. Aside from approximately ten sandy beaches open to tourists, all other shoreline locations are restricted to anyone without a research permit; open cooperation with the Galapagos National Park provided the survey team complete access to the Islands coastlines. Survey locations were guided by numerical simulations of the tsunami performed prior to the field work. This numerical guidance accurately predicted the regions of highest impact, as well as regions of relatively low impact. Tide-corrected maximum tsunami heights were generally in the range of 3–4 m with the highest runup of 6 m measured in a small pocket beach on Isla Isabela. Puerto Ayora, on Santa Cruz Island, the largest harbor in the Galapagos experienced significant flooding and damage to structures located at the shoreline. A current meter moored inside the harbor recorded relatively weak tsunami currents of less than 0.3 m/s (0.6 knot) during the event. Comparisons with detailed numerical simulations suggest that these low current speed observations are most likely the result of data averaging at 20-min intervals and that maximum instantaneous current speeds were considerably larger. Currents in the Canal de Itabaca, a natural waterway between Santa Cruz Island and a smaller island offshore, were strong enough to displace multiple 5.5-ton navigation buoys. Numerical simulations indicate that currents in the Canal de Itabaca exceeded 4 m/s (~8 knots), a very large flow speed for a navigational waterway.     

Probabilistic Assessment of Tsunami Recurrence in the Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean is one of the most tsunamigenic regions of the world and recently experienced a mega-tsunami in the Sumatra region on 26 December 2004 (M _W 9.2 earthquake) with tsunami intensity I (Soloviev-Imamura intensity scale) equal to 4.5, causing heavy destruction of lives and property in the Indian Ocean rim countries. In this study, probabilities of occurrences of large tsunamis with tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 (average wave heights H ≥ 2.83 m and H ≥ 5.66 m, respectively) during a specified time interval were calculated using three stochastic models, namely, Weibull, gamma and lognormal. Tsunami recurrence was calculated for the whole Indian Ocean and the special case of the Andaman-Sumatra-Java (ASJ) region, excluding the 1945 Makran event from the main data set. For this purpose, a reliable, homogeneous and complete tsunami catalogue with I ≥ 2.0 during the period 1797–2006 was used. The tsunami hazard parameters were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The logarithm of likelihood function (ln L) was estimated and used to test the suitability of models in the examined region. The Weibull model was observed to be the most suitable model to estimate tsunami recurrence in the region. The sample mean intervals of occurrences of tsunamis with intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 were calculated for the observed data as well as for the Weibull, gamma and lognormal models. The estimated cumulative and conditional probabilities in the whole Indian Ocean region show recurrence periods of about 27–30 years (2033–2036) and 35–36 years (2039–2040) for tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, while it is about 31–35 years (2037–2041) and 41–42 years (2045–2046) for a tsunami of intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, in the ASJ region. A high probability (>0.9) of occurrence of large tsunamis with I ≥ 2.0 in the next 30–40 years in the Indian Ocean region was revealed.     

The 2010 Chilean Tsunami Off the West Coast of Canada and the Northwest Coast of the United States

The major (M _w = 8.8) Chilean earthquake of 27 February 2010 generated a trans-oceanic tsunami that was observed throughout the Pacific Ocean. Waves associated with this event had features similar to those of the 1960 tsunami generated in the same region by the Great (M _w = 9.5) 1960 Chilean Earthquake. Both tsunamis were clearly observed on the coast of British Columbia. The 1960 tsunami was measured by 17 analog pen-and-paper tide gauges, while the 2010 tsunami was measured by 11 modern digital coastal tide gauges, four NEPTUNE-Canada bottom pressure recorders located offshore from southern Vancouver Island, and two nearby open-ocean DART stations. The 2010 records were augmented by data from seven NOAA tide gauges on the coast of Washington State. This study examines the principal characteristics of the waves from the 2010 event (height, period, duration, and arrival and travel times) and compares these properties for the west coast of Canada with corresponding properties of the 1960 tsunami. Results show that the 2010 waves were approximately 3.5 times smaller than the 1960 waves and reached the British Columbia coast 1 h earlier. The maximum 2010 wave heights were observed at Port Alberni (98.4 cm) and Winter Harbour (68.3 cm); the observed periods ranged from 12 min at Port Hardy to 110–120 min at Prince Rupert and Port Alberni and 150 min at Bamfield. The open-ocean records had maximum wave heights of 6–11 cm and typical periods of 7 and 15 min. Coastal and open-ocean tsunami records revealed persistent oscillations that “rang” for 3–4 days. Tsunami energy occupied a broad band of periods from 3 to 300 min. Estimation of the inverse celerity vectors from cross-correlation analysis of the deep-sea tsunami records shows that the tsunami waves underwent refraction as they approached the coast of Vancouver Island with the direction of the incoming waves changing from an initial direction of 340° True to a direction of 15° True for the second train of waves that arrived 7 h later after possible reflection from the Marquesas and Hawaiian islands.     

Tsunami Hazard Posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and Southern New Hebrides Subduction Margins: An Assessment Based on Plate Boundary Kinematics, Interseismic Coupling, and Historical Seismicity

We assess the tsunami hazard posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and southern New Hebrides subduction margins. Neither of these subduction zones has produced tsunami large enough to cause significant damage in New Zealand over the past 150?years of well-recorded history. However, as this time frame is short compared to the recurrence interval for major tsunamigenic earthquakes on many of the Earth’s subduction zones, it should not be assumed that what has been observed so far is representative of the long term. For each of these two subduction zones we present plate kinematic and fault-locking results from block modelling of earthquake slip vector data and GPS velocities. The results are used to estimate the current rates of strain accumulation on the plate interfaces where large tsunamigenic earthquakes typically occur. We also review data on the larger historical earthquakes that have occurred on these margins, as well as the Global CMT catalogue of events since 1976. Using this information we have developed a set of scenarios for large earthquakes which have been used as initial conditions for the COMCOT tsunami code to estimate the subsequent tsunami propagation in the southwest Pacific, and from these the potential impact on New Zealand has been evaluated. Our results demonstrate that there is a significant threat posed to the Northland and Coromandel regions of New Zealand should a large earthquake (M _w ?8.5) occur on the southern or middle regions of the Kermadec Trench, and that a similarly large earthquake on the southern New Hebrides Trench has the potential to strongly impact on the far northern parts of New Zealand close to the southern end of the submarine Three Kings Ridge. We propose logic trees for the magnitude–frequency parameters of large earthquakes originating on each trench, which are intended to form the basis for future probabilistic studies.     

Tsunami Probability in the Caribbean Region

We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ~500-year empirical record compiled by O’Loughlin and Lander (2003) was used to calculate an empirical tsunami probability map, the first of three constructed for this study. However, it is unclear whether the 500-year record is complete, so we conducted a seismic moment-balance exercise using a finite-element model of the Caribbean-North American plate boundaries and the earthquake catalog, and found that moment could be balanced if the seismic coupling coefficient is c = 0.32. Modeled moment release was therefore used to generate synthetic earthquake sequences to calculate 50 tsunami runup scenarios for 500-year periods. We made a second probability map from numerically-calculated runup rates in each cell. Differences between the first two probability maps based on empirical and numerical-modeled rates suggest that each captured different aspects of tsunami generation; the empirical model may be deficient in primary plate-boundary events, whereas numerical model rates lack backarc fault and landslide sources. We thus prepared a third probability map using Bayesian likelihood functions derived from the empirical and numerical rate models and their attendant uncertainty to weight a range of rates at each 20 km by 20 km coastal cell. Our best-estimate map gives a range of 30-year runup probability from 0–30% regionally.     

The El Salvador and Philippines Tsunamis of August 2012: Insights from Sea Level Data Analysis and Numerical Modeling

We studied two tsunamis from 2012, one generated by the El Salvador earthquake of 27 August (Mw 7.3) and the other generated by the Philippines earthquake of 31 August (Mw 7.6), using sea level data analysis and numerical modeling. For the El Salvador tsunami, the largest wave height was observed in Baltra, Galapagos Islands (71.1 cm) located about 1,400 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 9 and 19 min. Numerical modeling indicated that most of the tsunami energy was directed towards the Galapagos Islands, explaining the relatively large wave height there. For the Philippines tsunami, the maximum wave height of 30.5 cm was observed at Kushimoto in Japan located about 2,700 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 8, 12 and 29 min. Numerical modeling showed that a significant part of the far-field tsunami energy was directed towards the southern coast of Japan. Fourier and wavelet analyses as well as numerical modeling suggested that the dominant period of the first wave at stations normal to the fault strike is related to the fault width, while the period of the first wave at stations in the direction of fault strike is representative of the fault length.