Development of an empirical model for rainfall-induced hillside vulnerability assessment: a case study on Chen-Yu-Lan watershed,Nantou, Taiwan

In Taiwan, the hillside is about 70 % of total area. These areas also have steep topography and geological vulnerability. When an event of torrential rain comes during a typhoon, the landslide disasters usually occur at these areas due to the long duration and high intensity of rainfall. Therefore, a design which considers the potential landslide has become an important issue in Taiwan. In this study, a temporal characteristic of landslide fragility curve (LFC) was developed, based on the geomorphological and vegetation factors using landslides at the Chen-Yu-Lan watershed in Taiwan, during Typhoon Sinlaku (September 2008) and Typhoon Morakot (August 2009). This study addressed an effective landslide hazard assessment process, linking together the post-landslide damage and post-rainfall data for LFC model. The Kriging method was used to interpolate the rainfall indices (R ₀, R, I) for numerical analysis. Remote sensing data from SPOT images were applied to analyze the landslide ratio and vegetation conditions. The 40-m digital elevation model was used for slope variation analysis in the watershed, and the maximum likelihood estimate was conducted to determine the mean and standard deviation parameters of the proposed empirical LFC model. This empirical model can express the probability of exceeding a damage state for a certain classification (or conditions) of landslides by considering a specific hazard index for a given event. Finally, the vulnerability functions can be used to assess the loss from landslides, and, in the future, to manage the risk of debris flow in the watershed.     

Modified DRASTIC assessment for intrinsic vulnerability mapping of karst aquifers: a case study

Groundwater in karstic aquifers can be dangerously sensitive to contamination. In this paper, DRASTIC assessment was modified and applied, for the first time, to address the intrinsic vulnerability for karst aquifers. The theoretical weights of two of DRASTIC’s parameters (aquifer media and hydraulic conductivity) were modified through sensitivity analysis. Two tests of sensitivity analyses were carried out: the map removal and the single parameter sensitivity analyses. The modified assessment was applied for the karst aquifers underlying Ramallah District (Palestine) as a case study. The aquifer vulnerability map indicated that the case study area is under low, moderate and high vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. The vulnerability index can assist in the implementation of groundwater management strategies to prevent degradation of groundwater quality. The modified DRASTIC assessment has proven to be effective because it is relatively straightforward, use data that are commonly available or estimated and produces an end product that is easily interpreted.     

Location model analysis of flood relief facilities: a case study of the Fazih River floodplain,Taiwan

The continuously low efficiencies of flood relief service in responding to flooding disasters in Taiwan highlight a need for research. This service efficiency is negatively influenced by flood relief facility locations and their operational management structure. The Fazih River floodplain has been previously identified as a high-flood-risk area using an analytic hierarchy process. The purpose of this study is to use the location set covering problem and the maximal covering location problem to determine the number of relief facilities required and the maximum covering area of each facility for the case study area of the Fazih River floodplain. The findings showed that covering distances range from 3.0 to 6.6 km and the number of facilities required for improved service efficiency is between 1 and 4.

     

Coastal vulnerability assessment: a case study on erosion and coastal change along Tuticorin,Gulf of Mannar

Natural Hazards - Assessment of vulnerability is essential for identifying and recognizing the coastal livelihood, socio-economic and ecological security status. However, coastal vulnerability...     

Social vulnerability assessment of natural hazards on county-scale using high spatial resolution satellite imagery: a case study in the Luogang district of Guangzhou,South China

Social vulnerability assessment of natural hazards aims to identify vulnerable populations and provide decision makers with scientific basis for their disaster prevention and mitigation decisions. A new method based on remote sensing is presented here to establish a model of social vulnerability for county-scale regions that lack of relative data. To calculate population density, which is the most important indicator in social vulnerability assessment, first, a statistical model is established to estimate the population on village level. Then a new concept defined as “population density based on land use” is created to replace the arithmetic population density. The former has taken the dynamic human distribution related to land use into account; thus, it can map the population distribution more realistically. The other two indicators are age structure and distance to hospital. The application of this method to the Luogang District of Guangzhou, South China demonstrated its capability of providing high spatial resolution and reasonable social vulnerability for social vulnerability assessment of natural hazards.     

Spatial data for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment: An overview

The aim of this paper is to discuss a number of issues related to the use of spatial information for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The paper centers around the types of spatial data needed for each of these components, and the methods for obtaining them. A number of concepts are illustrated using an extensive spatial data set for the city of Tegucigalpa in Honduras. The paper intends to supplement the information given in the “Guidelines for Landslide Susceptibility, Hazard and Risk Zoning for Land Use Planning” by the Joint ISSMGE, ISRM and IAEG Technical Committee on Landslides and Engineered Slopes (JTC-1). The last few decades have shown a very fast development in the application of digital tools such as Geographic Information Systems, Digital Image Processing, Digital Photogrammetry and Global Positioning Systems. Landslide inventory databases are becoming available to more countries and several are now also available through the internet. A comprehensive landslide inventory is a must in order to be able to quantify both landslide hazard and risk. With respect to the environmental factors used in landslide hazard assessment, there is a tendency to utilize those data layers that are easily obtainable from Digital Elevation Models and satellite imagery, whereas less emphasis is on those data layers that require detailed field investigations. A review is given of the trends in collecting spatial information on environmental factors with a focus on Digital Elevation Models, geology and soils, geomorphology, land use and elements at risk.     

An integrated indicator framework for spatial assessment of industrial and social vulnerability to indirect disaster losses

The focus of this study is on multi-dimensional vulnerability of regions to indirect disaster losses. An integrated indicator framework has been developed which captures the multi-layered vulnerability drivers in industrial production systems and also accounts for the social fragilities and coping capacities in communities. By combining industrial vulnerability and social vulnerability spatially, and proposing a methodology to account between their interactions, the total vulnerability to indirect risks of regions is revealed. The outcome of the framework is a ranking of industrial sectors and geographic areas according to their vulnerability against indirect losses. It answers the question which of the two affected regions is in a better position to cope with indirect consequences in a disaster. Indicators provide a flexible framework for the comparison and integration of different data types and allow the combination of social as well as economic aspects. Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) methodology was applied to analyze direct and indirect dependencies within the selected social and industrial vulnerability indicators. The hierarchical indicator system has been implemented in a software system based on multi-criteria decision theory (MCDA) with an interactive interface to take into account a broader range of expert judgement. The methodology was applied in a case study in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg in Germany for 16 different industrial sectors. The approach helps to identify particular vulnerable processes and points out where mitigation measures could be implemented most effectively.     

Population vulnerability assessment based on scenario simulation of rainstorm-induced waterlogging: a case study of Xuhui District, Shanghai City

Waterlogging is one of the most serious hazards in cities. People are the core of the human social system and the main group affected by disasters. This research introduces a method of scenario simulation which provides a basis for the accurate measurement of exposure to waterlogging. Then based on the concept and structure of vulnerability, representative indicators are selected to develop an indicator system based on objective weights derived from principal components analysis. The method is then used to conduct a population vulnerability assessment in Xuhui District of Shanghai city based on scenario simulation of rainstorm-induced waterlogging over a 50-year period. The final assessment results show that the population vulnerability is greatest for Tianlin Street, Lingyun Street, Changqiao Street, Fenglin Street, and Caohejing Street, while Tianping Street, Xujiahui Street, and Xietulu Street have medium levels of vulnerability. Hongmei Road Street, Healthy Village Street, Longhua Street, and Hunan Road Street have low levels of vulnerability, and Huajing Town is the area with the lowest population vulnerability. The results provide both necessary information and guidance for the government to improve the flood management.     

Enhanced groundwater vulnerability assessment in geological homogeneous areas: a case study from the Argentine Pampas

The southeast area of the Argentine Pampas is characterized by the presence of an unconfined aquifer in a wide plain. A methodology is proposed that deals with the aquifer vulnerability where the homogeneity of the hydrogeological variables used by traditional methods (in this case, DRASTIC-P) causes vulnerability maps to show more than 80% of the territory under the same class. This absence of discrimination renders vulnerability maps of little use to decision-makers. In addition, the proposed methodology avoids the traditional vague classification (high, low, and moderate vulnerability) which is highly dependent on subjectivity in its association of each class with hydrogeological considerations. That traditional vulnerability assessment methodology was adapted using a geographic information system to reclassify classes, based on the Natural Breaks (Jenks) method. The pixel-to-pixel comparison between the result obtained by the DRASTIC-P and the reclassified classes generates the so-called operational vulnerability index (OVI), which shows four classes, associating each with different hydrogeological requirements to make decisions.     

Mapping composite vulnerability to groundwater arsenic contamination: an analytical framework and a case study in India

Natural Hazards - Groundwater arsenic (As) contamination affects millions of people in South Asia. In this paper, we propose a composite vulnerability framework to identify, for mitigation, the...     

An assessment of environmental impacts of quarry-blasting operation: a case study in Istanbul, Turkey

This study evaluates the impacts resulting from quarry-blasting operation on nearby buildings and structures as it generates ground vibration, air blast, and fly rocks. In this paper, first blasting operation and its possible environmental effects are defined. Then the methods of blast-vibration prediction and commonly accepted criteria to prevent damage were introduced. A field experimental work was conducted to minimize the vibration effects at Saribayir quarry as it is an identical case for the many quarries situated in and around Istanbul, Turkey. Although the local surrounding geology and rock mechanics have great influence on vibrations as uncontrollable parameter, the charge weight per delay, delay period, geometric parameters of the blasts were changed to solve the existing vibration problem in the studied quarry. To obtain a realistic result, 10 blasts were carried out and 30 seismic records were made in different places mainly very close the buildings and the other vulnerable structures around the quarry. The evaluation is performed whether the vibration level are within safe limits or not. The prediction equation based on scaled distance concept is also determined, however, it is a site-specific model and need to be updated when the quarry advances. The safe blast parameters which minimize the environmental effect were determined for the Saribayir quarry.     

An ensemble risk assessment model for urban rainstorm disasters based on random forest and deep belief nets: a case study of Nanjing,China

Natural Hazards - Effective management of rainstorm risk is essential for reducing regional rainstorm disaster risks and losses. In this paper, we discussed the influencing factors of urban...     

A method for tsunami risk assessment: a case study for Kamakura,Japan

This paper presents a methodology for tsunami risk assessment, which was applied to a case study in Kamakura, Japan. This methodology was developed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of a risk-reducing system against such hazards, also aiming to demonstrate that a risk assessment is possible for these episodic events. The tsunami risk assessment follows these general steps: (1) determination of the probability of flooding, (2) calculation of flood scenarios, (3) assessment of the consequences and (4) integration into a risk number or graph. The probability of flooding was approximated based on the data provided by local institutes, and the flood scenarios were modeled in 1D using the Simulating WAves till SHore model. Results showed that a tsunami in Kamakura can result in thousands of casualties. Interventions such as improvements in evacuation systems, which would directly reduce the number of casualties, would have a large influence in risk reduction. Although this method has its limits and constraints, it illustrates the value it can add to existing tsunami risk management in Japan.     

Entropy theory-integrated information model for the assessment of geothermal potential: a case study of Tengchong County,Southwest China

Geothermal energy remains a largely undeveloped natural resource because of the high risk associated with its development. An accurate prediction model for easy identification of potential regions can help to lower the risk and cost associated with development. In this study, geothermal potential regions were identified through the relationship between geothermal emergencies and their controlling factors in Tengchong County, China. Publicly available databases for this analysis including epicenters, active faults, Bouguer gravity, Landsat7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus images, the magnetic data and digital elevation model data were extracted as the b-value map, distance to faults map, distance to main grabens map, land surface temperature map, magnetic anomaly map and distance to rivers map, respectively. Based on the platforms within geographic information system, an entropy theory-integrated information model was established to evaluate the geothermal potential sites within the region. Moreover, factor analysis method was applied to test the conditional independence between the map pairs before modeling application. The results of the weighted information model show that the model shows perfect performance in discovering potential geothermal regions. In the final maps, undeveloped or unexploited geothermal regions can be observed along the Mingguang River and Nu River. Undeniably, these models will help to find undiscovered geothermal regions with limited geological information publically available.     

Development of a GIS-based catastrophe theory model (modified DRASTIC model) for groundwater vulnerability assessment

This study developed a new paradigm for groundwater vulnerability assessment by modifying the standard DRASTIC index (DI) model based on catastrophe theory. The developed paradigm was called the catastrophe theory-based DI (CDI) model. The proposed model was applied to assess groundwater vulnerability to pollution index (GVPI) in Perak Province, Malaysia. The area vulnerability index was modeled by considering the DRASTIC multiple vulnerability causative factors (VCFs) obtained from different data sources. The weights and ranking of the VCFs were computed by using the inner fuzzy membership mechanism of the CDI model. The estimated vulnerability index values of the CDI model were processed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment to produce a catastrophe theory–DRASTIC groundwater vulnerability to pollution index (CDGVPI) map, which demarcated the area into five vulnerability zones. The produced CDGVPI map was validated by applying the water quality status–vulnerability zone relationship (WVR) approach and the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve method. The performance of the developed CDI model was compared with that of the standard DI model. The validation results of the WVR approach exhibits 89.29% prediction accuracy for the CDI model compared with 75% for the DI model. Meanwhile, the ROC validation results for the CDI and DI models are 88.8% and 78%, respectively. The GIS-based CDI model demonstrated better performance than the DI model. The GVPI maps produced in this study can be used for precise decision making process in environmental planning and groundwater management.