Forecasts and predictions of eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, USA: 1975–1984

Public statements about volcanic activity at Mount St. Helens include factual statements, forecasts, and predictions. A factual statement describes current conditions but does not anticipate future events. A forecast is a comparatively imprecise statement of the time, place, and nature of expected activity. A prediction is a comparatively precise statement of the time, place, and ideally, the nature and size of impending activity. A prediction usually covers a shorter time period than a forecast and is generally based dominantly on interpretations and measurements of ongoing processes and secondarily on a projection of past history. The three types of statements grade from one to another, and distinctions are sometimes arbitrary.Forecasts and predictions at Mount St. Helens became increasingly precise from 1975 to 1982. Stratigraphic studies led to a long-range forecast in 1975 of renewed eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, possibly before the end of the century. On the basis of seismic, geodetic and geologic data, general forecasts for a landslide and eruption were issued in April 1980, before the catastrophic blast and landslide on 18 May 1980. All extrusions except two from June 1980 to the end of 1984 were predicted on the basis of integrated geophysical, geochemical, and geologic monitoring. The two extrusions that were not predicted were preceded by explosions that removed a substantial part of the dome, reducing confining pressure and essentially short-circuiting the normal precursors.     

Magma supply, magma discharge and readjustment of the feeding system of mount St. Helens during 1980

The landslide and cataclysmic eruption of Mount St. Helens on May 18, 1980 triggered a sequence of explosive eruptions over the following five months. The volume of explosive products from each of these eruptions decreased uniformly over this period, and the character for each eruption progressed from a fairly continuous eruption lasting more than eight hours on May 18 to a series of short bursts, some of which were spaced 12 hours apart, on October 16–18. The transition in the character of these eruption sequences can be explained by a difference between the magma supply rate and the magma discharge rate from a shallow reservoir.The magma supply rate (MSR) is the rate with which magma is supplied to the level where disruption due to vesiculation occurs. It is determined by dividing the dense-rock-equivalent volume of eruptive products by the total duration of each eruption sequence. The magma discharge rate (MDR) is the rate with which the disrupted magma is discharged through the vent. It is determined by dividing the volume of erupted products by the duration of each explosive burst. The relative magnitude of these two quantities controls the temporal evolution of an explosive event. When MDRMSR the explosive phase of the eruption lasts for several hours as a single continuous event. When MDR>MSR, an eruption is characterized by a series of short explosive bursts at intervals of several minutes to several days. The MSR of the eruptions of 1980 decreased with time from 5500 m' s⁻¹ on May 18 to 7 m³ s⁻² on October 16–18 and approximately fits an exponential decay. The MDR for the same events remained approximately constant at 2000 m³ s⁻¹. Each explosive event has been followed by an aftershock-like series of earthquakes located beneath the volcano at depth mostly between 7 and 14 km. The seismic energy released during each of these series is proportional to the corresponding volume of erupted magma. Deformation data between June and November, 1980 indicate a subsidence of the volcanic structure which can be modeled by a volume collapse of 0.25 km³ located at 9 km depth.We propose a model in which magma is supplied from depths of 7–14 km through a narrow conduit during each eruption. It erupts to the surface at a uniform rate during each eruption. The deep seismic activity following each eruption is related to a readjustment and volume decrease in the deep feeding system. The decrease of the MSR over time is explained by an increase in the viscosity of a progressively water-depleted magma. The amount of water necessary to explain the observed decrease of the MSR is of the order of 4.6%.     

Rock fracture as a precursor to lava dome eruptions at Mount St Helens from June 1980 to October 1986

Following its plinian eruption on 18 May 1980, Mount St Helens (Washington State, USA) entered a period of intermittent lava-dome extrusion until 1986. Renewed extrusion was frequently preceded by accelerating rates of seismicity, with more precursory seismicity observed prior to eruptions later in the sequence. Here the failure forecasting method (FFM) is used to investigate changes in the observed rate of volcano–tectonic (VT) seismicity. The analysis indicates that: (1) all VT crises resulted in an eruption within 3 weeks (usually less than 10 days), (2) the majority of eruptions had VT precursors, and (3) patterns of precursory seismicity showed fluctuations about the ideal model trend. Thus, although these seismic events could be used to warn of an impending eruption, specific forecasts were subject to an uncertainty of weeks or more. It is proposed that: (1) increased seismicity prior to later eruptions is a result of a larger and more solidified dome acting as a greater impediment to magma ascent; (2) the consistency of seismic swarms resulting in an eruption indicates that stresses high enough to initiate fracturing in the country rock and lava dome carapace were only achieved once the approach to an eruption had already begun; and (3) discrepancies between models of accelerating rock fracture and the observed seismicity may arise due to a significant amount of the rocks deforming through ductile mechanisms rather than seismogenic fracture.     

Volcano hazards program in the United States

Volcano monitoring and volcanic-hazards studies have received greatly increased attention in the United States in the past few years. Before 1980, the Volcanic Hazards Program was primarily focused on the active volcanoes of Kilauea and Mauna Loa, Hawaii, which have been monitored continuously since 1912 by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. After the reawakening and catastrophic eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980, the program was substantially expanded as the government and general public became aware of the potential for eruptions and associated hazards within the conterminous United States. Integrated components of the expanded program include: volcanic-hazards assessment; volcano monitoring; fundamental research; and, in concert with federal, state, and local authorities, emergency-response planning.In 1980 the David A. Johnston Cascades Volcano Observatory was established in Vancouver, Washington, to systematically monitor the continuing activity of Mount St. Helens, and to acquire baseline data for monitoring the other, presently quiescent, but potentially dangerous Cascade volcanoes in the Pacific Northwest. Since June 1980, all of the eruptions of Mount St. Helens have been predicted successfully on the basis of seismic and geodetic monitoring.The largest volcanic eruptions, but the least probable statistically, that pose a threat to western conterminous United States are those from the large Pleistocene-Holocene volcanic systems, such as Long Valley caldera (California) and Yellowstone caldera (Wyoming), which are underlain by large magma chambers still potentially capable of producing catastrophic caldera-forming eruptions. In order to become better prepared for possible future hazards associated with such historically unpecedented events, detailed studies of these, and similar, large volcanic systems should be intensified to gain better insight into caldera-forming processes and to recognize, if possible, the precursors of caldera-forming eruptions.     

Energetics of gas-driven limnic and volcanic eruptions

This paper lays the foundation for the rigorous treatment of the energetics of gas exsolution from a gas-containing liquid, which powers gas-driven volcanic and limnic eruptions. Various exsolution processes (reversible or irreversible, slow or rapid) are discussed, and the maximum amount of kinetic energy derivable from a reversible gas exsolution process is obtained. The concept of dynamic irreversibility is proposed for discussing the kinetic energy available from irreversible gas exsolution processes. The changes of thermodynamic properties during gas exsolution processes are derived. Density–pressure relations for gas–liquid mixtures are presented, including empirical relations for irreversible gas exsolution. The energetics of gas-driven eruptions through both fluid and rigid media, including the role of buoyancy and the role of magma chamber expansion work, are investigated. For reversible processes, the energetics can be used to discuss the dynamics of gas-driven eruptions, leading to maximum erupting velocities and maximum eruptible fractions. For irreversible processes, empirical relations and parameters must be employed. The exit velocities of the Lake Nyos eruption and the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens are modeled by incorporating possible irreversibility.     

The prediction of large explosions of andesitic volcanoes

During the large explosions of the Bezymianny (1956), Shiveluch (1964) and Mount St. Helens (1980) volcanoes, 4.8·10¹², 3.0·10¹² and 8.2·10¹² kg of resurgent and magmatic material were ejected respectively. The eruptions were preceded and accompanied by significant crustal deformations and by a great number of volcanic earthquakes. In all three cases, earthquakes with an energy of E = 10⁹ J occurred 8–11 days before the eruption; their foci were at a distance of less than 5 km from the floor of the active crater and the power of earthquake swarms increased continuously and monotonously until the beginning of the eruption. The data obtained on deformations, earthquakes and volcanic activity may be used for the prediction of the place, time, energy and hazards of large explosions of andesitic volcanoes.     

Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM): a volcano monitoring and prediction tool

Seismicity is one of the most commonly monitored phenomena used to determine the state of a volcano and for the prediction of volcanic eruptions. Although several real-time earthquake-detection and data acquisition systems exist, few continuously measure seismic amplitude in circumstances where individual events are difficult to recognize or where volcanic tremor is prevalent. Analog seismic records provide a quick visual overview of activity; however, continuous rapid quantitative analysis to define the intensity of seismic activity for the purpose of predicing volcanic eruptions is not always possible because of clipping that results from the limited dynamic range of analog recorders. At the Cascades Volcano Observatory, an inexpensive 8-bit analog-to-digital system controlled by a laptop computer is used to provide 1-min average-amplitude information from eight telemetered seismic stations. The absolute voltage level for each station is digitized, averaged, and appended in near real-time to a data file on a multiuser computer system. Raw realtime seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) data or transformed RSAM data are then plotted on a common time base with other available volcano-monitoring information such as tilt. Changes in earthquake activity associated with dome-building episodes, weather, and instrumental difficulties are recognized as distinct patterns in the RSAM data set. RSAM data for domebuilding episodes gradually develop into exponential increases that terminate just before the time of magma extrusion. Mount St. Helens crater earthquakes show up as isolated spikes on amplitude plots for crater seismic stations but seldom for more distant stations. Weather-related noise shows up as low-level, long-term disturbances on all seismic stations, regardless of distance from the volcano. Implemented in mid-1985, the RSAM system has proved valuable in providing up-to-date information on seismic activity for three Mount St. Helens eruptive episodes from 1985 to 1986 (May 1985, May 1986, and October 1986). Tiltmeter data, the only other telemetered geophysical information that was available for the three dome-building episodes, is compared to RSAM data to show that the increase in RSAM data was related to the transport of magma to the surface. Thus, if tiltmeter data is not available, RSAM data can be used to predict future magmatic eruptions at Mount St. Helens. We also recognize the limitations of RSAm data. Two examples of RSAM data associated with phreatic or shallow phreatomagmatic explosions were not preceded by the same increases in RSAM data or changes in tilt associated with the three dome-building eruptions.     

Effects of forest land management on erosion and revegetation after the eruption of Mount St. Helens

The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens covered soils with a tephra blanket and killed the forest tree cover in a 550 km² area. After the eruption, rates of sheetwash and rill erosion, and plant cover were measured on tephra-covered hillslopes which had been subject to three land-management practices: grass seeding; scarification, and salvage logging. On rapidly-eroding hillslopes subject to grass seeding, limited plant covers were established only after erosion had declined sharply. Logging of trees downed by the eruption and scarification of previously logged surfaces slowed erosion, although the effect was small because erosion rates had already slowed substantially by the time these two practices were implemented. The factors controlling erosion, revegetation, and their relative timing at Mount St. Helens are similar to those following explosive volcanic eruptions elsewhere, suggesting that grass seeding is not likely to be effective at slowing erosion following most tephra eruptions, and that early mechanical disturbance could be an effective erosion-control measure. The results also indicate that even without deliberate conservation measures, processes which mechanically disturb a surface layer of low hydraulic conductivity (such as frost-action or trampling) can radically reduce runoff and erosion before revegetation has an important effect.     

Crystallization of microlites during magma ascent: the fluid mechanics of 1980–1986 eruptions at Mount St Helens

Eruptions of Mount St Helens (Washington, USA) decreased in intensity and explosivity after the main May 18, 1980 eruption. As the post-May 18 eruptions progressed, albitic plagioclase microlites began to appear in the matrix glass, although the bulk composition of erupted products, the phenocryst compositions and magmatic temperatures remained fairly constant. Equilibrium experiments on a Mount St Helens white pumice show that at 160 MPa water pressure and 900°C, conditions deduced for the 8 km deep magma storage zone, the stable plagioclase is An₄₇. The microlites in the natural samples, which are more albitic, had to grow at lower water pressures during ascent. Isothermal decompression experiments reported here demonstrate that a decrease in water pressure from 160 to 2 MPa over four to eight days is capable of producing the albitic groundmass plagioclase and evolved melt compositions observed in post-May 18 1980 dacites. Because groundmass crystallization occurs over a period of days during and after decreases in pressure, microlite crystallization in the Mount St Helens dacites must have occurred during the ascent of each magma batch from a deep reservoir rather than continuously in a shallow holding chamber. This is consistent with data on the kinetics of amphibole breakdown, which require that a significant portion of magma vented in each eruption ascended from a depth of at least 6.5 km (160 MPa water pressure) in a matter of days. The size and shape of the microlite population have not been studied because of the small size of the experimental samples; it is possible that the texture continues to mature long after chemical equilibrium is approached. As the temperature, composition, crystal content and water content of magma in the deep reservoir remained approximately constant from May 1980 to at least March 1982, the spectacular decrease in eruption intensity during this period cannot be attributed to changes in viscosity or density of the magma. Simple fluld mechanical considerations indicate, however, that the observed changes in mass flux of magma can be modelled by a five-fold decrease in conduit radius from 35 to 7 m, produced perhaps by plating of magma along the conduit walls. The decreased ascent rates which accompanied the decrease in conduit radius can explain the change from closed-system to open-system degassing and the shift from explosive to effusive eruptions during 1980.     

Some regularity in the process of re-awakening of andesite and dacite volcanoes: specific features of the 1982 El Chichón volcano,México reactivation

El Chichón volcano is an andesite stratovolcano in southern México. It erupted in March 1982, after about 550 years of quiescence. The 1982 eruption of El Chichón has not been followed by the growth of a lava dome within the newly formed crater. This is rather anomalous since the construction of a new dome after the destruction of an old one is a common process during the eruptions at andesite and dacite volcanoes. To discuss this anomalous aspect of the El Chichón eruption, some regularity in the process of re-awakening of dormant (here defined as a period of quiescence of more than 100 years) andesite and dacite volcanoes are studied based on the seismic activity recorded at the volcanoes Bezymianny, Mount St. Helens, El Chichón, Unzen, Pinatubo and Soufrière Hills. Three stages were identified in the re-awakening activity of these volcanoes: (1) preliminary seismic activity, leading up to the first phreatic explosion; (2) activity between the first and the largest explosions; (3) post-explosion dome-building process. The eruptions were divided into two groups: low-VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index) and the long duration stage-1 events (Unzen, 1991 and Soufrière Hills volcano, 1995) and high-VEI and the short duration stage-1 events (Bezymianny, 1956; Mount St. Helens, 1980; El Chichón, 1982 and Pinatubo, 1992). The comparative analysis of the seismo-eruptive activity of two eruptions of the second group, the 1980 of Mt. St. Helens and the 1982 of El Chichón, produced an explanation the absence of new dome building during the 1982 eruption of El Chichón volcano. It may be explained in terms of the unusually rapid emission of gas and water from the magmatic and hydrothermal system beneath the volcano during a relatively short sequence of large explosions that could have sharply increased the viscosity of the magma making impossible its exit to the surface.     

Volcanic edifice stability during cryptodome intrusion

Limit equilibrium analyses were applied to the 1980 Mount St. Helens and 1956 Bezymianny failures in order to examine the influence on stability of structural deformation produced by cryptodome emplacement. Weakening structures associated with the cryptodome include outward-dipping normal faults bounding a summit graben and a flat shear zone at the base of the bulged flank generated by lateral push of the magma. Together with the head of the magmatic body itself, these structures serve directly to localize failure along a critical surface with low stability deep within the interior of the edifice. This critical surface, with the safety coefficient reduced by 25-30%, is then very sensitive to stability condition variation, in particular to the pore-pressure ratio (r_u) and seismicity coefficient (n). For r_u=0.3, or n=0.2, the deep surface suffers catastrophic failure, removing a large volume of the edifice flank. In the case of Mount St. Helens, failure occurred within a material with angle of friction ~40°, cohesion in the range 10⁵-10⁶ Pa, and probably significant water pore pressure. On 18 May 1980, detachment of slide block I occurred along a newly formed rupture surface passing through the crest of the bulge. Although sliding of block I may have been helped by the basal shear zone, significant pore pressure and a triggering earthquake were required (r_u=0.3 and n=0.2). Detachment of the second block was guided by the summit normal fault, the front of the cryptodome, and the basal shear zone. This occurred along a deep critical surface, which was on the verge of failure even before the 18 May 1980 earthquake. The stability of equivalent surfaces at Bezymianny Volcano appears significantly higher. Thus, although magma had already reached the surface, weaker materials, or higher pore pressure and/or seismic conditions were probably required to reach the rupture threshold. From our analysis, we find that deep-seated sector collapses formed by removing the edifice summit cannot generally result from a single slide. Cryptodome-induced deformation does, however, provide a deep potential slip surface. As previously thought, it may assist deep-seated sector collapse because it favors multiple retrogressive slides. This leads to explosive depressurization of the magmatic and hydrothermal systems, which undermines the edifice summit and produces secondary collapses and explosive blasts.     

Earthquake swarms on Mount Erebus, Antarctica

Mount Erebus (3794 m), located on Ross Island in McMurdo Sound, is one of the few active volcanoes in Antartica. A high-sensitivity seismic network has been operated by Japanese and US parties on and around the Volcano since December, 1980. The results of these observations show two kinds of seismic activity on Ross Island: activity concentrated near the summit of Mount Erebus associated with Strombolian eruptions, and micro-earthquake activity spread through Mount Erebus and the surrounding area.Seismicity on Mount Erebus has been quite high, usually exceeding 20 volcanic earthquakes per day. They frequently occur in swarms with daily counts exceeding 100 events.Sixteen earthquake swarms with more than 250 events per day were recorded by the seismic network during the three year period 1982–1984, and three notable earthquake swarms out of the sixteen were recognized, in October, 1982 (named 82-C), March–April, 1984 (84-B) and July, 1984 (84-F).Swarms 84-B and 84-F have a large total number of earthquakes and large Ishimoto-Iida's “m”; hence these two swarms are presumed to constitute on one of the precursor phenomena to the new eruption, which took place on 13 September, 1984, and lasted a few months.     

Simulation of the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens using the ash-tracking model PUFF

The dispersal of volcanic ash from the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens (MSH) has been simulated using the Lagrangian ash-tracking model PUFF. Previous applications of the model were limited to smaller, short-lived eruptions with ash dispersal occurring mainly within the troposphere. Two high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR-40) allowed MSH ash cloud dispersal to be simulated up to 30 km elevation. The 1980 eruption was divided into two distinct eruptive phases, (1) an initial, relatively short-lived blast/surge phase that injected ash up to 30 km and (2) a subsequent nine-hour plinian phase that maintained an average eruption column height of 16 km. Using PUFF, the two phases of the MSH eruption were modeled separately based on a range of individual input parameters and then combined to produce an integrated simulation of the entire eruption. The trajectory and areal extent of the modeled atmospheric ash cloud best match the actual distribution of MSH ash when input parameters are set to values inferred from satellite and radar data collected on May 18, 1980. The prevailing wind field exerts the strongest control on the advection and ultimate position of the modeled ash cloud, making the maximum column height and the vertical distribution of ash the most sensitive of the PUFF input parameters for this event. The results indicate that the PUFF model works well at simulating the dispersal of ash injected well into the lower stratosphere from a moderate, relatively long-lived eruption, such as MSH. However, attempts to use PUFF to recreate some granulometric aspects of the MSH fallout deposit, such as the maximum particle size as a function of distance from source, were not successful. PUFF consistently predicts much greater fallout distances for small ash particles (< 500 µm) than actually observed in the MSH deposit. The effective settling velocities used by the PUFF model appear to be too slow to accurately predict fallout distances of small ash particles. As a consequence the PUFF model may overestimate the duration of ash loading in the atmosphere associated with the distal fine ash component of explosive eruptions.     

Nonequilibrium flow in volcanic conduits and application to the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens on May 18, 1980, and Vesuvius in AD 79

A steady-state, one-dimensional, and nonhomogeneous two-phase flow model was developed for the prediction of local flow properties in volcanic conduits. The model incorporates the effects of relative velocity between the phases and for the variable magma viscosity. The resulting set of nonlinear differential equations was solved by a stiff numerical solver and the results were verified with the results of basaltic fissure eruptions obtained by a homogeneous two-phase flow model, before applying the model to the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens and Vesuvius volcanoes. This verification, and a study of the sensitivity of several modeling parameters, proved effective in establishing the confidence in the predicted nonequilibrium results of flow distribution in the conduits when the mass flow rate is critical or maximum. The application of the model to the plinian eruptions of Mt. St. Helens on May 18, 1980, and Vesuvius in AD 79, demonstrates the sensitivity of the magma discharge rate and distributions of pressure, volumetric fraction, and velocities of phases, on the hydrous magma viscosity feeding the volcanic conduits. Larger magma viscosities produce smaller mass discharge rates (or greater conduit diameters), smaller exit pressures, larger disequilibrium between the phases, and larger difference between the local lithostatic and fluid pressures in the conduit. This large pressure difference occurs when magma fragments and may cause a rupture of the conduit wall rocks, producing a closure of the conduit and cessation of the volcanic eruption, or water pouring into the conduit from underground aquifers leading to phreatomagmatic explosions. The motion of the magma fragmentation zone along a conduit during an eruption can be caused by the varying viscosity of magma feeding the volcanic conduit and may cause intermittent phreatomagmatic explosions during the plinian phases as different underground aquifers are activated at different depths. The variation of magma viscosity during the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens in 1980 and Vesuvius in AD 79 is normally associated with the tapping of magmas from different depths of the magma chambers. This variation of viscosity, which can include different crystal and dissolved water contents, can also produce conduit wall erosion, the onset and collapse of volcanic columns above the vent, and the onset and cessation of pyroclastic flows and surges.     

Mount St. Helens a decade after the 1980 eruptions: magmatic models,chemical cycles,and a revised hazards assessment

Available geophysical and geologic data provide a simplified model of the current magmatic plumbing system of Mount St. Helens (MSH). This model and new geochemical data are the basis for the revised hazards assessment presented here. The assessment is weighted by the style of eruptions and the chemistry of magmas erupted during the past 500 years, the interval for which the most detailed stratigraphic and geochemical data are available. This interval includes the Kalama (A. D. 1480–1770s?), Goat Rocks (A.D. 1800–1857), and current eruptive periods. In each of these periods, silica content decreased, then increased. The Kalama is a large amplitude chemical cycle (SiO₂: 57%–67%), produced by mixing of arc dacite, which is depleted in high field-strength and incompatible elements, with enriched (OIB-like) basalt. The Goat Rocks and current cycles are of small amplitude (SiO₂: 61%–64% and 62%–65%) and are related to the fluid dynamics of magma withdrawal from a zoned reservoir. The cyclic behavior is used to forecast future activity. The 1980–1986 chemical cycle, and consequently the current eruptive period, appears to be virtually complete. This inference is supported by the progressively decreasing volumes and volatile contents of magma erupted since 1980, both changes that suggest a decreasing potential for a major explosive eruption in the near future. However, recent changes in seismicity and a series of small gas-release explosions (beginning in late 1989 and accompanied by eruption of a minor fraction of relatively low-silica tephra on 6 January and 5 November 1990) suggest that the current eruptive period may continue to produce small explosions and that a small amount of magma may still be present within the conduit. The gas-release explosions occur without warning and pose a continuing hazard, especially in the crater area. An eruption as large or larger than that of 18 May 1980 (0.5 km³ dense-rock equivalent) probably will occur only if magma rises from an inferred deep (7 km), relative large (5–7 km³) reservoir. A conservative approach to hazard assessment is to assume that this deep magma is rich in volatiles and capable of erupting explosively to produce voluminous fall deposits and pyroclastic flows. Warning of such an eruption is expectable, however, because magma ascent would probably be accompanied by shallow seismicity that could be detected by the existing seismic-monitoring system. A future large-volume eruption (0.1 km³) is virtually certain; the eruptive history of the past 500 years indicates the probability of a large explosive eruption is at least 1% annually. Intervals between large eruptions at Mount St. Helens have varied widely; consequently, we cannot confidently forecast whether the next large eruption will be years decades, or farther in the future. However, we can forecast the types of hazards, and the areas that will be most affected by future large-volume eruptions, as well as hazards associated with the approaching end of the current eruptive period.     

Seismic activity of Erebus volcano,antarctica

Mount Erebus is presently the only Antarctic volcano with sustained eruptive activity in the past few years. It is located on Ross Island and a convecting anorthoclase phonolite lava lake has occupied the summit crater of Mount Erebus from January 1973 to September 1984. A program to monitor the seismic activity of Mount Erebus named IMESS was started in December 1980 as an international cooperative program among Japan, the United States and New Zealand. A new volcanic episode began on 13 September, 1984 and continued until December.Our main observations from the seismic activity from 1982–1985 are as follows: (1) The average numbers of earthquakes which occurred around Mount Erebus in 1982, 1983 and January–August 1984 were 64, 134 and 146 events per day, respectively. Several earthquake swarms occurred each year. (2) The averag number of earthquakes in 1985 is 23 events per day, with only one earthquake swarm. (3) A remarkable decrease of the background seismicity is recognized before and after the September 1984 activity. (4) Only a few earthquakes were located in the area surrounding Erebus mountain after the September 1984 activity.A magma reservoir is estimated to be located in the southwest area beneath the Erebus summit, based on the hypocenter distributions of earthquakes.     

Statistical analysis of intermittent volcanic tremor associated with the September 1989 summit explosive eruptions at Mount Etna, Sicily

The pattern of volcanic tremor accompanying the 1989 September eruption at the south-east summit crater of Mount Etna is studied. In specific, sixteen episodes of lava fountaining, which occurred in the first phase of the eruption, are analysed. Their periodic behaviour, also evidenced by autocorrelation, allows us to define the related tremor amplitude increases as intermittent volcanic tremor episodes. Focusing on the regular intermittent behaviour found for both lava fountains and intermittent volcanic tremors, we tried an a posteriori forecast using simple statistical methods based on linear regression and the Student’ t-test. We performed the retrospective statistical forecast, and found that several eruptions would have been successfully forecast. In order to focus on the source mechanism of tremor linked to lava fountains, we investigated the relationship between volcanic and seismic parameters. A mechanism based on a shallow magma batch ‘regularly’ refilled from depth is suggested.     

Summary of pre-1980 tephra-fall deposits erupted from Mount St. Helens,Washington State,USA

Mount St. Helens has been a prolific source of tephra-fall deposits for about 40 000 years. These tephra deposits (1) record numerous explosive eruptions, (2) form important regional time-stratigraphic marker beds, and (3) record repeated changes in composition within and between eruptive periods.Recognized tephra strata record more than 100 explosive eruptive events at Mount St. Helens; those tephra strata are classified as beds, layers, and sets. Tephra sets, each of which consists of a group of beds and layers, define in part the nine eruptive periods recognized at the volcano. Individual tephra sets are distinguished from stratigraphically adjacent sets by differences in composition or by evidence of clapsed time.Several tephra units from Mount St. Helens form important marker beds at distances of hundreds of kilometers downwind from the volcano. Cummingtonite phenocrysts, which are known in ejecta from only Mount St. Helens in the Pacific Northwest, characterize some marker beds and readily identify their source.The tephra sequence also records eruption of the mafic andesites that mark the appearance of the modern Mount St. Helens and numerous changes in composition among dacite, basalt, and andesite since that time.     

Magma and hydrothermally driven sector collapses: The 3100 and 11,500 y. B.P. eruptions of la Grande Decouverte (la Soufrière) volcano, Guadeloupe, French West Indies

We recently reported (Boudon et al., 1984) on an eruption similar to that of May 18, 1980 at Mount St. Helens, that took place about 3100 years ago at la Soufrière, Guadeloupe. During the course of detailed geological mapping of the deposits of this event, older debris flow and blast deposits were recognized in the northern sector of the mapped area. Uncarbonized wood fragments in the debris flow have yielded ages ca. 11,500 y. B.P. The deposits extend from an amphitheater crater westward to the caribbean shore about 10 km downslope from the volcano. The deposits and crater structure suggest that they are the result of catastrophic flank failure like the event 3100 years ago. Unlike the latter activity, however, no magmatic component is found in the deposits.     

Variations in column height and magma discharge during the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens

Peak eruption column heights for the B1, B2, B3 and B4 units of the May 18, 1980 fall deposit from Mount St. Helens have been determined from pumice and lithic clast sizes and models of tephra dispersal. Column heights determined from the fall deposit agree well with those determined by radar measurements. B1 and B2 units were derived from plinian activity between 0900 and about 1215 hrs. B3 was formed by fallout of tephra from plumes that rose off pyroclastic flows from about 1215 to 1630 hrs. A brief return to plinian activity between 1630 and 1715 hrs was marked by a maximum in column height (19 km) during deposition of B4.Variations in magma discharge during the eruption have been reconstructed from modelling of column height during plinian discharge and mass-balance calculations based on the volume of pyroclastic flows and coignimbrite ash. Peak magma discharge occurred during the period 1215–1630 hrs, when pyroclastic flows were generated by collapse of low fountains through the crater breach. Pyroclastic flow deposits and the widely dispersed co-ignimbrite ash account for 77% of the total erupted mass, with only 23% derived from plinian discharge.A shift in eruptive style at noon on May 18 may have been associated with increase in magma discharge and the eruption of silicic andesite mingled with the dominant mafic dacite. Increasing abundance of the silicic andesite during the period of highest magma discharge is consistent with the draw-up and tapping of deeper levels in the magma reservoir, as predicted by theoretical models of magma withdrawal. Return to plinian activity late in the afternoon, when magma discharge decreased, is consistent with theoretical predictions of eruption column behavior. The dominant generation of pyroclastic flows during the May 18 eruption can be attributed to the low bulk volatile content of the magma and the increasing magma discharge that resulted in the transition from a stable, convective eruption column to a collapsing one.