On the interpretation of seasonal variations of stratospheric ozone

Insight into the causes of the annual and semi-annual ozone oscillations may be gained from the analysis of photochemical model behavior. In this paper, the monthly variations of the ozone mixing ratio computed by the two-dimensional photochemical model of Garcia and Solomon (1983, J. geophys. Res. 88, 1379) are Fourier-analyzed and compared with SBUV observations of ozone mixing ratio. Remarkably good qualitative agreement between the model calculations and the observations is found. Analysis of computed transport and chemical production and destruction rates reveals the causes of the modelled seasonal ozone variations.

It will be shown that at high latitudes and low altitudes, modelled ozone abundances increase in the winter due to transport and decrease in the summer due to chemical destruction. In the middle stratosphere, the calculated annual ozone variation is largely due to the annual variation in the odd-oxygen production rate, and in the upper stratosphere, the computed annual ozone variation is caused by the large calculated annual oscillation in temperature. Comparison between the model and observations suggests that the equatorial semi-annual oscillation above 10 mb is caused mainly by the semi-annual temperature and wind oscillation (SAO). Below 10 mb the computed equatorial ozone variation is caused by the increased rates of odd-oxygen production associated with the semi-annual zenith crossings of the Sun. Finally, the calculated polar semi-annual ozone oscillations are found to be caused by modulation of the radiatively driven middle-stratospheric ozone variation by temperature dependent chemical destruction processes.     

Tropospheric,stratospheric and mesospheric ozone observed using the Umkehr method

Ozone vertical profiles have been obtained above the “Observatoire de Haute-Provence” from 9 to 19 June 1981, with both conventional and short Umkehr methods: the mesospheric and stratospheric ozone variability has been found to be very small while the ozone variability was large in the troposphere and maximum at the tropopause level.     

North-south asymmetries of solar particle events in upper stratospheric ozone

Stratospheric ozone depressions, following intense solar particle events (SPE) observed by the backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) experiment on the Nimbus-4 satellite, indicate the existence of distinct asymmetries between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. These asymmetries are observed in the magnitude of the depressions above the 5-mb level, their temporal variations, and the spatial (i.e., latitude and longitude) dependence of these variations. Possible causes of asymmetries, shown by two events on 4 August 1972 and 25 January 1971, can be attributed to: (1) tilt of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) with respect to the Earth's dipole magnetic field which influences the precipitation of energetic solar particles into the polar atmospheres; (2) differences in ozone chemistry caused by the large change in atmospheric temperature between summer and winter hemispheres; (3) seasonal differences of the stratosphere's dynamic states which are affected by upward propagating planetary waves in winter in contrast to the relatively undisturbed zonal flow in summer; (4) topographic asymmetry between Northern and Southern Hemispheres.These effects are shown by three-dimensional plots of the events in geographic coordinates and by color contour plots of the stratospheric ozone distributions in geomagnetic and geographic polar coordinates, respectively.     

Rotational modulation of Ca K flux ratio and sunspot number

The results of daily monitoring of the Ca K flux variations of integrated sunlight during the period 1 July 1979–18 February 1980 are presented, and the data analyzed by both power spectrum and autocorrelation methods. The latter method is found to be superior; in it the autocorrelation function is fit to a model having three parameters, viz. the maximum long-term autocorrelation c ₁, the rotational period ₀ and an effective lifetime ₁. Values of c ₁ = 0.26, ₀ = 25.9 days, and ₁ = 500 days are obtained for the Ca K flux ratio; somewhat different values of c ₁ = 0.77, ₀ = 28.0 days, and ₁ = 89 days are obtained for the sunspot number for the same period. Rotational modulation is clearly evident for the relatively weak chromosphere of the Sun and should be even more easily observed for more active stars.     

Design of a new DIAL system for tropospheric and lower stratospheric ozone monitoring in Northern Greece

An improved ozone Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) system has been designed for tropospheric and lower stratospheric ozone monitoring in Northern Greece. The system is based on a frequency quadrupled pulsed Nd:YAG laser and the Raman shifting technique in D₂ and H₂ gases. The lidar system emits simultaneously 4 wavelengths (266 mn, 289 nm, 299 nm and 316 nm) at 10 Hz repetition rate using a single low pressure Raman cell. The optical receiving system is based on a 50 cm concave telescope which is directly coupled to a specially conceived grating spectrometer. This lidar system uses analog (12 bits-40 MHz) and photon counting (250 MHz) detection systems, able to measure lidar signals up 16 km height. Ozone vertical profiles are to be measured from 0.8 km up to 15 km height, with a 30–500 m spatial and a 1-minute temporal resolution. In this paper the major technical characteristics of the improved lidar system are presented. The system is foreseen to provide the first daytime/nighttime ozone vertical profiles during early winter 1999.     

Predicting the maximum amplitude for the sunspot cycle from the rate of rise in sunspot number

Examined are associational aspects as they relate the maximum amplitude R _M for the sunspot cycle to the rate of rise R _t during the ascending phase, where R _M is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum and R _t is the sum of the monthly mean sunspot numbers for selected 6-month intervals (t) measured from cycle onset. One finds that, prior to about 2 yr into the cycle, the rate of rise is not a reliable predictor for maximum amplitude. Only during the latter half of the ascent do the fits display strong linearity, having a coefficient of correlation r 0.9 and a standard error S _yx 20. During the first four intervals, the expected R _M and the observed R _M were found to differ by no more than 20 units of smoothed sunspot number only 25, 42, 50, and 58 % of the time; during the latter four intervals, they differed by no more than 20 units 67, 83, 92, and 100% of the time.     

Long-term modulation of cosmic ray intensity in relation to sunspot numbers and tilt angle

A detailed correlative analysis between sunspot numbers (SSN) and tilt angle (TA) with cosmic ray intensity (CRI) in the neutron monitor energy range has been performed for the solar cycles 21, 22 and 23. It is found that solar activity parameters (SSN and TA) are highly (positive) correlated with each other and have inverse correlation with cosmic ray intensity (CRI). The ‘running cross correlation coefficient’ between cosmic ray intensity and tilt angle has also been calculated and it is found that the correlation is positive during the maxima of odd cycles 21 and 23. Moreover, the time lag analysis between CRI and SSN, and between CRI and TA has also been performed and is supported by hysteresis curves, which are wide for odd cycles and narrow for even cycles.     

Diffuse scattering of radar on the surface of Venus: Origin and implications for the distribution of soils

Previous analysis of PV altimeter data has shown that ~25% of the surface of Venus is characterized by low values of reflectivity, interpreted as being due to the presence of porous materials such as soils. However, examination of a corrected reflectivity data set in combination with PV altimeter data suggests that no more than 5% of the surface of Venus is covered by soils more than several to tens of cm in depth. Most regions of apparent low reflectivity are instead interpreted to be due to the presence of small (5–50 cm) roughness elements on the surface that cause diffuse scattering at the 17 cm PV wavelength. Regions of low apparent reflectivity are of interest because of a correlation with tessera, a complex tectonic unit mapped from Venera 15/16 SAR data. Regions of tessera are characterized by a complex system of intersecting ridges and valleys thought to be of tectonic origin. Examination of possible models for the form of diffuse scatterers in the tessera suggests that they are rock fragments and originate from a mass-wasting process that is linked to the rugged nature of the terrain. Further, these diffuse scatterers are associated with other tectonic landforms, suggesting that they originate as part of tectonic deformation of the surface. Viewed from a geologic standpoint, the PV data sets are important tools for understanding tectonic, volcanic, and degradational processes on Venus, as well as for future interpretation of data from the Magellan mission.     

Perchloric acid: A possible sink for stratospheric chlorine

The possibility that chlorine may deplete stratospheric chlorine has received considerable attention recently. The only termination steps considered up to now involve HCl formation by chlorine atom attack on hydrogen-bearing molecules. We propose that an important removal mechanism for chlorine in the stratosphere may be the formation of HClO₄ via the sequence of steps Cl + O₂ + O₃ → ClO₃ + O₂ ClO₃ + OH → HClO₄. In addition to being produced as often as HCl, HClO₄ may be more stable to radical attack and thus a more efficient sink than HCl for stratospheric chlorine.     

On the average rate of growth in sunspot number and the size of the sunspot cycle

The average rate of growth during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, defined here as the difference in smoothed sunspot number values between elapsed time (in months) t and sunspot minimum divided by t, is shown to correlate (r 0.78) with the size of the sunspot cycle, especially for t 18 months. Also, the maximum value of the average rate of growth is shown to highly correlate (r = 0.98) with the size of the cycle. Based on the first 18 months of the cycle, cycle 22 is projected to have an R(M) = 186.0 ± 27.2 (at the ± 1 level), and based on the first 24 months of the cycle, it is projected to have an R(M) = 201.0 ± 20.1 (at the ± 1 level). Presently, the average rate of growth is continuing to rise, having a value of about 4.5 at 24 months into the cycle, a value second only to that of cycle 19 (4.8 at t = 24 and a maximum value of 5.26 at t = 27). Using 4.5 as the maximum value of the average rate of growth for cycle 22, a lower limit can be estimated for R(M); namely R(M) for cycle 22 is estimated to be 164.0 (at the 97.5% level of confidence). Thus, these findings are consistent with the previous single variate predictions that project R(M) for cycle 22 to be one of the greatest on record, probably larger than cycle 21 (164.5) and near that of cycle 19 (201.3).     

On the discovery of CO nighttime emissions on Titan by Cassini/VIMS: Derived stratospheric abundances and geological implications

We present a quantitative analysis of CO thermal emissions discovered on the nightside of Titan by Baines et al. [2005. The atmospheres of Saturn and Titan in the near-infrared: First results of Cassini/VIMS. Earth, Moon, and Planets, 96, 119–147]. in Cassini/VIMS spectral imagery. We identify these emission features as the P and R branches of the 1-0 vibrational band of carbon monoxide (CO) near 4.65 μm. For CH₃D, the prominent Q branch of the ν₂ fundamental band of CH₃D near 4.55 μm is apparent. CO₂ emissions from the strong v₃ vibrational band are virtually absent, indicating a CO₂ abundance several orders of magnitude less than CO, in agreement with previous investigations. Analysis of CO emission spectra obtained over a variety of altitudes on Titan's nightside limb indicates that the stratospheric abundance of CO is 32±15 ppm, and together with other recent determinations, suggests a vertical distribution of CO nearly constant at this value from the surface throughout the troposphere to at least the stratopause near 300 km altitude. The corresponding total atmospheric content of CO in Titan is 2.9±1.5×10¹⁴ kg. Given the long lifetime of CO in the oxygen-poor Titan atmosphere (0.5–1.0 Gyr), we find a mean CO atmospheric production rate of 6±3×10⁵ kg yr⁻¹. Given the lack of primordial heavy noble gases observed by Huygens [Niemann et al., 2005. The abundances of constituents of Titan's atmosphere from the GCMS on the Huygens probe. Nature, 438, 779–784], the primary source of atmospheric CO is likely surface emissions. The implied CO/CH₄ mixing ratio of near-surface material is 1.8±0.9×10⁻⁴, based on an average methane surface emission rate over the past 0.5 Gyr of 1.3×10⁻¹³ gm cm⁻² s⁻¹ as required to balance hydrocarbon haze production via methane photolysis [Wilson and Atreya, 2004. Current state of modeling the photochemistry of Titan's mutually dependent atmosphere and ionosphere. J. Geophys. Res. 109, E06002 Doi:10.1029/2003JE002181]. This low CO/CH₄ ratio is much lower than expected for the sub-nebular formation region of Titan and supports the hypothesis [e.g., Atreya et al., 2005. Methane on Titan: photochemical-meteorological-hydrogeochemical cycle. Bull. Am. Astron. Soc. 37, 735] that the conversion of primordial CO and other carbon-bearing materials into CH₄-enriched clathrate-hydrates occurs within the deep interior of Titan via the release of hydrogen through the serpentinization process followed by Fischer–Tropsch catalysis. The time-averaged predicted emission rate of methane-rich surface materials is 0.02 km³ yr⁻¹, a value significantly lower than the rate of silicate lava production for the Earth and Venus, but nonetheless indicative of significant active geological processes reshaping the surface of Titan.     

Correction of sunspot intensities for scattered light

Correction of sunspot intensities for scattered light usually involves fitting theoretical curves to observed aureoles (Zwaan, 1965; Staveland, 1970, 1972). In this paper we examine the inaccuracies in the determination of scattered light by this method. Earlier analyses are extended to examine uncertainties due to the choice of the expression for limb darkening, including terms up to sin¹² . For the spread function we consider Lorentzians and Gaussians for which analytic expressions for the aureole can be written down. Lorentzians lead to divergence and normalization difficulties, and should not be used in scattered light determinations. Gaussian functions are more suitable.     

The shape of the sunspot cycle

The temporal behavior of a sunspot cycle, as described by the International sunspot numbers, can be represented by a simple function with four parameters: starting time, amplitude, rise time, and asymmetry. Of these, the parameter that governs the asymmetry between the rise to maximum and the fall to minimum is found to vary little from cycle to cycle and can be fixed at a single value for all cycles. A close relationship is found between rise time and amplitude which allows for a representation of each cycle by a function containing only two parameters: the starting time and the amplitude. These parameters are determined for the previous 22 sunspot cycles and examined for any predictable behavior. A weak correlation is found between the amplitude of a cycle and the length of the previous cycle. This allows for an estimate of the amplitude accurate to within about 30% right at the start of the cycle. As the cycle progresses, the amplitude can be better determined to within 20% at 30 months and to within 10% at 42 months into the cycle, thereby providing a good prediction both for the timing and size of sunspot maximum and for the behavior of the remaining 7–12 years of the cycle. The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

On the maximum rate of change in sunspot number growth and the size of the sunspot cycle

Statistically significant correlations exist between the size (maximum amplitude) of the sunspot cycle and, especially, the maximum value of the rate of rise during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, where the rate of rise is computed either as the difference in the month-to-month smoothed sunspot number values or as the average rate of growth in smoothed sunspot number from sunspot minimum. Based on the observed values of these quantities (equal to 10.6 and 4.63, respectively) as of early 1989, one infers that cycle 22's maximum amplitude will be about 175 ± 30 or 185 ± 10, respectively, where the error bars represent approximately twice the average error found during cycles 10–21 from the two fits.     

Mathematical modelling of the sunspot cycle

The sunspot record for the time interval 1749–1977 can be represented conveniently by an harmonic model comprising a relatively large number of lines. Solar activity can otherwise be considered as a sequence of partly overlapping events, triggered periodically at intervals of the order of 11 years. Each individual cycle is approximated by a function of the Maxwell distribution type; the resulting impulse model consists of the superposition of the independent pulses. Application of these two models for the prediction of annual values of the Wolf sunspot numbers leads to controversial results. Mathematical modelling of the sunspot time series does not give an unambiguous result.     

On the dissolution of sunspot groups

The behavior of magnetic fluxes from active regions is investigated for times near sunspot disappearance. It is found that the magnetic fluxes decrease on or near the date the spot vanishes. We investigate this effect, and conclude that it is actually due to changes in the field, rather than through dissipation of the active region fields. This is important in considerations of the large-scale behavior of solar magnetic fields.     

The nature of the sunspot phenomenon

Heat transport in the Sun is describable by a Fokker-Planck, or diffusion, transfer equation. A study of the general character of the solutions of the transfer equation shows that the inhibition of convective transport beneath the photosphere produces a photospheric dark ring surrounded by a bright ring, or at best, a dark area surrounded by a bright ring. The mean temperature beneath the sunspot is unavoidably above normal, so that the enhanced gas pressure would disperse, rather than concentrate, the magnetic field. Hence we conclude that the inhibition of convection cannot be the cause of a sunspot.We suggest, instead, that a sunspot is a region of enhanced, rather than inhibited, energy transport and emissivity. The magnetic field of the sunspot causes a dynamical overstability in the outer thousand km of the convective zone, generating copious fluxes of hydromagnetic waves, which propagate rapidly out of the region along the magnetic field. We suggest that this heat engine is so efficient as to convert at least three fourths of the heat flux into waves. Solutions of the heat transport equation in the presence of a heat sink automatically resemble the observed sunspot, including a dark interior, a sharp transition at the edge of the umbra, and an extended grey area around the outside, the penumbra. The mean temperature is reduced, causing the observed concentration of the magnetic field.The enhanced radiation is in the form of hydromagnetic waves, which do not appear in ordinary photographs, but which light up the sky over the sunspot in a manner conspicuous in any UV or X-ray picture. In this respect, then, a sunspot is effectively a hole in the Sun, extending down to temperatures of 2 × 10⁴ K or more.This work was supported in part by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant NGL 14-001-001.     

On the structure of sunspot penumbra

The structure of sunspot penumbrae is discussed in terms of bright filaments on a dark background, as opposed to dark filaments above a bright granular background.     

A model of the sunspot umbra

Equations governing the structure of the umbra of a single spot have been integrated on the spot-axis. It is shown that a consistent umbral model can be obtained only for a narrow range of the electron pressures at the spot surface. The spot center is found to be at a depth of about 400 km below the normal solar surface. The reduced energy flux observed at the surface is assumed to be due to the effect of the spot-magnetic field on subphotospheric convection and an empirical factor is introduced to take into account the reduction in the convective energy flux. With an inferred expression for as a function of the internal and magnetic-energy density it is shown that in a consistent model the physical variables in the spot approach their ambient values at about 2330 km below the undisturbed solar surface and at the same depth the energy flux approaches the normal solar value and the magnetic interference with convection vanishes. The present investigation is a refinement of an earlier paper by Chitre (1963).Supported in part by the Office of Naval Research [Nonr-220(47)] and the National Science Foundation [GP-5391].