Atmospheric excitation of polar motion

The polar motion excited by the fluctuation of global atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) is investigated. Based on the global AAM data, numerical results demonstrate that the fluctuation of AAM can excite the seasonal wobbles (e.g., the 18-month wobble) and the Chandler wobble, which agree well with previous studies. In addition, by filtering the dominant low frequency components, some distinct polar wobbles corresponding to some great diurnal and semi-diurnal atmospheric tides are found.     

Atmospheric excitation of polar motion

The polar motion excited by the fluctuation of global atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) is investigated. Based on the global AAM data, numerical results demonstrate that the fluctuation of AAM can excite the seasonal wobbles (e.g., the 18-month wobble) and the Chandler wobble, which agree well with previous studies. In addition, by filtering the dominant low frequency components, some distinct polar wobbles corresponding to some great diurnal and semi-diurnal atmospheric tides are found.     

Modeling and forecast of the polar motion excitation functions for short-term polar motion prediction

Short-term forecast of the polar motion is considered by introducing a prediction model for the excitation function that drives the polar motion dynamics. The excitation function model consists of a slowly varying trend, periodic modes with annual and several sub-annual frequencies (down to the 13.6-day fortnightly tidal period), and a transient decay function with a time constant of 1.5 days. Each periodic mode is stochastically specified using a second-order auto-regression process, allowing its frequency, phase, and amplitude to vary in time within a statistical tolerance. The model is used to time-extrapolate the excitation function series, which is then used to generate a polar motion forecast dynamically. The skills of this forecast method are evaluated by comparison to the C-04 polar motion series. Over the lead-time horizon of four months, the proposed method has performed equally well to some of the state-of-art polar motion prediction methods, none of which specifically features forecasting of the excitation function. The annual mode in the ₂ component is energetically the most dominant periodicity. The modes with longer periods, annual and semi-annual in particular, are found to contribute more significantly to forecast accuracy than those with shorter periods.     

利用卫星观测数据评估GLDAS与WGHM水文模型的适用性

利用2002—2012年的GLDAS和WGHM模型模拟水文产品,以及重力恢复与气候试验卫星（Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment,GRACE）观测数据,计算了全球范围内30个主要流域的水储量变化时间序列,从模拟数据与观测数据的年周期振幅、长期趋势项及时空分布一致性等几个方面,对GLDAS和WGHM进行了评估。结果表明,GLDAS的4个子模型都表现出了明显的季节性变化,CLM年周期振幅输出最小,MOSAIC和VIC最大,NOAH居中,且最接近4个子模型的平均值。与GRACE结果相比,约80%流域的GLDAS与WGHM模型年周期振幅输出呈明显低估现象,且GLDAS的低估程度大于WGHM,但靠近北极高纬度地区的流域有相反的情况出现。在长期趋势项方面,三者结果差异较大,尤其是对于面积较小且人类活动影响较大的流域,GLDAS与WGHM模型不能充分反映人类活动的影响,模型输出表现较差,GRACE结果更接近实际情况。此外,还研究了流域水储量长期变化趋势与灌溉率的关系,发现呈现明显下降趋势的流域主要集中在高灌溉率（>10%）地区,而灌溉率是影响流域水储量变化的重要因素之一。     

Prediction of polar motion

Based on an analysis of polar motion behavior, we found the possibility of predicting polar motion up to one year in advance. Comparing these predicted polar coordinates with the observed ones (smoothed), the rms of the differences is about 0".02. The differences of the relative polar motion are much smaller. For any time interval of 20–30 days throughout the whole year, the rms of the relative polar motion differences is about 0".01. It appears that 80–90% of the polar motion is composed of the stable, predictable Chandler and annual terms.     

对分量进行联合解算的极移预报方法研究

为了提高极移预报的精度,该文提出结合极移的两个分量进行统一求解的极移联合预报方法:将极移的两个分量组成一个观测方程,并采用LS+AR模型对联合分量的确定项与随机项进行拟合。实验结果表明,文中采用的联合预报方法可以提高极移的预报精度。     

Short-term polar motion forecasts from earth system modeling data

Polar motion predictions for up to 10 days into the future are obtained from predicted states of the atmosphere, ocean and continental hydrosphere in a hind-cast experiment covering 2003–2008. High-frequency mass variations within the geophysical fluids are the main cause of wide-band stochastic signals not considered in the presently used statistical prediction approach of IERS bulletin A for polar motion. Taking EAM functions based on forecasted model states, derived from ECMWF medium-range forecasts and corresponding LSDM and OMCT simulations, into account the prediction errors are reduced by 26%. The effective forecast length of the model combination is found to be 7 days, primarily limited by the accuracy of the forecasted atmospheric wind fields. Highest improvements are found for forecast days 4–5 with prediction skill scores of the polar motion excitation functions improved by a factor up to 5. Whereas bulletin A forecasts can explain the observed variance within the first 10 days only by up to 40%, half of the model forecasts reach relative explained variances between 40 and 80%.     

Determination of polar motion by Doppler tracking of artificial satellite

Doppler tracking of artificial satellites has been applied to determine the pole components through an experiment called MEDOC. In addition to developing scientific aspects dealing with polar motion, it is proposed to promote new observational techniques and to investigate the possibility of operating an international permanent service. So far, nearly two years of bi-daily solutions have been derived. Each improvement of computational procedures, data processing and station component determination has contributed to better precision in the computed pole positions. MEDOC pole coordinate solutions show good agreement with DMA and BIH global solutions corrected for annual terms. Differences of the smoothed values are less than one meter for both components. The MEDOC experiment was initiated by the GRGS (Groupe de Recherches de Géodésie Spatiale) and took place in 1977 and 1978. The experiment as presently organized will continue up to 1980. Future improvements are still foreseen by increasing the number of observing sites and refinement of the force models, but already international involvement is taking place in the MEDOC experiment.     

Excitation of non-atmospheric polar motion by the migration of the Pacific Warm Pool

Changes in the annual variation of the Earths polar motion are found to be largely caused by the variation of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM). Recent simulation results of oceanic general circulation models further suggest global oceanic effects on the annual polar motion in addition to the atmosphere. In comparison with previous model studies of global oceanic effects, this research particularly singles out a large-scale ocean anomaly and investigates its effect on the annual polar motion, determined from satellite observations of the movement of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Although the scale of the warm pool is much smaller than that of the solid Earth, analysis of the non-atmospheric polar motion excitation has shown that the WPWP contributes non-negligibly to the annual polar motion. The analysis consists of over 30 years of WPWP data (1970–2000) and shows values of polar motion excitation for the x-component of (2.5 mas, –79°) and for the y-component of (0.6 mas, 173°). Comparison of this result with the total geodetic non-atmospheric polar motion excitation of (10.3 mas, 59°) for the x-component and (10.6 mas, 62°) for the y-component shows the significance of the WPWP. Changes in the Earths polar motion have attracted significant attention, not only because it is an important geodetic issue, but also because it has significant value as a global measure of variations within the hydrosphere, atmosphere, cryosphere, and solid Earth, and hence global changes.Tel: 86–21–64386191 Fax: 86–21–64384618Acknowledgments. The authors are grateful to Dr. R. Gross (JPL) and two anonymous reviewers for providing invaluable comments. They also thank Dr. J.L. Chen (CSR) for helpful discussions. Y. Zhou, D. Zheng and X. Liao were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (10273018, 10133010) and Key Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KJCX2-SW-T1). X-H. Yan was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) through Grant NAG5–12745, and by the National Science Foundation (NSF) through the Presidential Faculty Fellow award to X-H. Yan (OCE-9453499). W.T. Liu was supported by the NASA Physical Oceanography Program.     

A study of gravity variations caused by polar motion using superconducting gravimeter data from the GGP network

Long-term continuous gravity observations, recorded at five superconducting gravimeter (SG) stations in the Global Geodynamic Project (GGP) network, as well as data on orientation variations in the Earths rotation axis (i.e. polar motion), have been used to investigate the characteristics of gravity variations on the Earths surface caused by polar motion. All the SG gravity data sets were pre-processed using identical techniques to remove the luni-solar gravity tides, the long-term trends of the instrumental drift, and the effects of atmospheric pressure. The analysis indicates that the spectral peaks, related to the Chandler and annual wobbles, were identified in both the power and product spectral density estimates. The magnitude of gravity variations, as well as the gravimetric amplitude factor associated with the Chandler wobble, changed significantly at different SG stations and during different observation periods. However, when all the SG observations at these five sites were combined, the gravimetric parameters of the Chandler wobble were retrieved accurately: 1.1613 ± 0.0737 for the amplitude factor and –1°.30 ± 1°.33 for the phase difference. The value of the estimated amplitude factor is in agreement with that predicted theoretically for the zonal tides of an elastic Earth model.     

Doppler satellite observations of polar motion

Observations on Navy navigation satellites made by thirteen Doppler receiving stations have been used to determine the position of the earth's pole daily for a six month period of time. A precision of one meter has been obtained on the basis of forty-eight hours of observations on one satellite. No bias is apparant between computations based on different satellites, but differences of about a meter exist with respect to values published by the Bureau International de l'Heure on the basis of astronomical observations.     

Predictability of the Earth’s polar motion

The numerical prediction of the Earth’s polar motion is of both theoretical and practical interest. The present paper is aimed at a comprehensive, experimental study of the predictability of polar motion using a homogeneous BIH (Bureau International de l’Heure) data set for the period 1967–1983. Based on our knowledge of the physics of the annual and the Chandler wobbles, we build the numerical model for the polar motion by allowing the wobble period to vary. Using an optimum base length of six years for prediction, this “floating-period” model, equipped with a nonlinear least-squares estimator, is found to yield polar motion predictions accurate to within 0″.012 to 0″.024 depending on the prediction length up to one year, corresponding to a predictability of 89–82%. This represents a considerable improvement over the conventional fixed-period predictor, which, by its nature, does not respond to variations in the apparent wobble periods (in particular, a dramatic decrease in the periods of both the annual and the Chandler wobbles after the year 1980). The superiority of the floating-period predictor to other predictors based on critically different numerical models is also demonstrated.     

Atmospheric and oceanic forcing of the rapid polar motion

The rapid polar motion for periods below 20 days is revisited in light of the most recent and accurate geodetic and geophysical data. Although its amplitude is smaller than 2 mas, it is excited mostly by powerful atmospheric processes, as large as the seasonal ones. The residual amplitude, representing about 20% of the total excitation, stems from the oceans. Rapid polar motion has an irregular nature that is well explained by the combined influence of the atmosphere and the oceans. An overall spectrum reveals cycles principally at 20, 13.6 (fortnightly tidal period) and 10 days (corresponding to the normal atmospheric mode Y₃¹{\Psi_3^1}), but this is only an averaged feature hiding its strong variability over seasonal time scales. This explains why it is so delicate to determine an empirical model of the tidal effect on polar motion. The variability in both amplitude and phase of the 13.6-day term is probably caused by a lunar barometric effect, modulated by some sub-seasonal thermal processes. The irregularities of the prominent cycles of the short-term polar motion are well explained by the atmospheric and oceanic excitations. The oceanic variability reinforces the atmospheric one, as they were triggered by the same agent, maybe seasonal and inter-annual thermal variations.     

Analysis of secular polar motion and continental drift

The secular latitude variations of the five ILS stations of Mizusawa, Kitab, Carloforte, Gaithersburg and Ukiah were analyzed taking into account the recent continental drift theory. Using Le Pichon's 1968 reconstruction, the rate of rotation was computed from the astronomical data, fixing the pole of rotation by Le Pichon's determination. The most reasonable solution was obtained considering Mizusawa, Kitab and Carloforte lying on the Eurasia plate, the two American stations as one on the American plate (Gaithersburg) and the other on the North—East Pacific plate (Ukiah). The resulting relative rate between the Euro-American plates is found to be 0".0028/year and between the American—Pacific plates 0".0032/ years, or about 1°,3/10⁶ years and in excellent agreement with the plate tectonic theory. Luxembourg Meeting of the “Journées Luxembourgeoises de Géodynamique”, 1972.     

Polar motion of the triaxial nonrigid Earth and atmospheric excitation

The present study aims to extend the traditional rotation theory of the rotational-symmetric Earth to the triaxial Earth.We re-formulate the Liouville equations and their general solutions for the triaxial nonrigid Earth and find that the traditional theory intro-duces some theoretical errors in modeling the excitation functions.Furthermore,we apply that theory to the atmospheric excitation and find that theoretical errors should not be neglected given the present measurement accuracy.Thus we conclude that the traditional the-ory of the rotation of the rotational-symmetric Earth should be revised and upgraded to include the effects of the Earth’s triaxiality.     

Evidence and cause of climate cycles in polar motion

 The long-term variation of polar motion contains a number of periods similar to climate cycles. Two possible causes for these long-term variations are mass redistributions produced by variations of atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and mass exchanges between the cryosphere and hydrosphere. Inner-core wobble, which can be inferred from the observed motion of the geomagnetic pole, is another phenomenon with periods similar to climate cycles. Only observations relating to mass redistributions caused by atmosphere dynamics and inner-core wobble are available for sufficiently long periods of time to investigate their influence on climate cycles in polar motion. Both processes contribute to climate cycles in polar motion, but they cannot completely explain these cycles. Possible sources of climate cycles are discussed. Received: 20 December 1999 / Accepted: 28 August 2000     

基于新参考系的极移改正

本文利用IAU2000决议中关于CIP的定义阐述了极移坐标系和极移坐标的定义,在总结微分旋转矩阵的性质的基础上给出了极移旋转矩阵的详细推导,结合极移产生的主要原因,详细介绍了目前国际上关于极移模型化工作的最新进展,最后给出了获取极移坐标和TIO位置的方法和途径。     

Nonlinear mechanism for polar motion with period of 7 months

 The 7 month-period (sub-Chandler) wobble is considered with respect to the nonlinear dynamical equation of polar motion. Starting with the frequency modulation of Chandler wobble (CW) in the model developed by introduction of damping from perturbed visco-elastic deformation, the rotation equation of the CW becomes a resonance model with a time-dependent parameter. According to evolution calculation, the parameter resonance model is essentially identical to the reality of CW observations. If the frequency of CW is modulated about 3 by visco-elastic deformation, then the amplitude of CW will be modulated by greater than 70. On the other hand, bifurcation may occur according to the nonlinear dynamical system of the parameter resonance model, i.e. a pair of solutions splitting from the main CW. One is the 7-month-period wobble and the other is a motion with a period of about 28 months. Although the latter is very weak, the 7-month-period wobble will be observed as the stability condition is satisfied. The maximum amplitude is about 22.89 mas and the average 12.65 mas. This is identical to what is observed in reality. Received: 7 April 2000 / Accepted: 5 March 2001