Impact of global warming on cyclonic disturbances over south Asian region

A state-of-the-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK is applied over the Indian domain to investigate the impact of global warming on the cyclonic disturbances such as depressions and storms. The PRECIS simulations at 50 × 50 km horizontal resolution are made for two time slices, present (1961–1990) and the future (2071–2100), for two socioeconomic scenarios A2 and B2. The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed to study the likely changes in the frequency, intensity and the tracks of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) and the Indian landmass during monsoon season. The model overestimates the frequency of cyclonic disturbances over the Indian subcontinent in baseline simulations (1961–1990). The change is evaluated towards the end of present century (2071–2100) with respect to the baseline climate. The present study indicates that the storm tracks simulated by the model are southwards as compared to the observed tracks during the monsoon season, especially for the two main monsoon months, viz., July and August. The analysis suggests that the frequency of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean is likely to reduce by 9% towards the end of the present century in response to the global warming. However, the intensity of cyclonic disturbances is likely to increase by about 11% compared to the present.     

Remanence magnetic records of the recent 130 000 years from the sediments in Nansha area, South China Sea

Two hundred and eighty-one samples, collected from drilling core NS93-5 located in the Nansha area of the South China Sea, were used to study the magnetic characteristics of the sediments in the sea. Detailed rock magnetic results show that the magnetic minerals of the sediments were dominated by ferrimagnetic minerals such as magnetite, and a small contribution of hematite and maghematite also existed. The sediments recorded three negative values of remanence magnetic inclination at the depth: 191–206 cm, 232–248 cm, and 292–308 cm. The corresponding ages of these negative values were 65.87–68.7 ka B.P., 73.4–80.8 ka B.P. and 108.4–113.6 ka B.P., respectively, according to stratigraphy of oxygen isotope, ¹⁴C, and the age of a volcanic ash layer. The negative value during 108.4–113.6 ka B.P. may be the record of a Blake event in the sediments of the Nansha area. Translated from Marine Geology & Quaternary Geology, 2006, 26(1): 59–66 [译自: 海洋地质与第四纪地质]     

Holocene thermal maximum in the western Arctic (0–180°W)

The spatio-temporal pattern of peak Holocene warmth (Holocene thermal maximum, HTM) is traced over 140 sites across the Western Hemisphere of the Arctic (0–180°W; north of ∼60°N). Paleoclimate inferences based on a wide variety of proxy indicators provide clear evidence for warmer-than-present conditions at 120 of these sites. At the 16 terrestrial sites where quantitative estimates have been obtained, local HTM temperatures (primarily summer estimates) were on average 1.6±0.8°C higher than present (approximate average of the 20th century), but the warming was time-transgressive across the western Arctic. As the precession-driven summer insolation anomaly peaked 12–10 ka (thousands of calendar years ago), warming was concentrated in northwest North America, while cool conditions lingered in the northeast. Alaska and northwest Canada experienced the HTM between ca 11 and 9 ka, about 4000 yr prior to the HTM in northeast Canada. The delayed warming in Quebec and Labrador was linked to the residual Laurentide Ice Sheet, which chilled the region through its impact on surface energy balance and ocean circulation. The lingering ice also attests to the inherent asymmetry of atmospheric and oceanic circulation that predisposes the region to glaciation and modulates the pattern of climatic change. The spatial asymmetry of warming during the HTM resembles the pattern of warming observed in the Arctic over the last several decades. Although the two warmings are described at different temporal scales, and the HTM was additionally affected by the residual Laurentide ice, the similarities suggest there might be a preferred mode of variability in the atmospheric circulation that generates a recurrent pattern of warming under positive radiative forcing. Unlike the HTM, however, future warming will not be counterbalanced by the cooling effect of a residual North American ice sheet.     

The progressive intensification of northern hemisphere glaciation as seen from the North Pacific

Ocean Drilling Project (ODP) site 882 (50°22′N, 167°36′E) provides the first high-resolution GRAPE density, magnetic susceptibility, carbonate, opal and foraminifera (planktonic and benthic) stable isotopes records between 3.2 and 2.4 Ma in the Northwest Pacific. We observed a dramatic increase in ice rafting debris at site 882 at 2.75 Ma, which is coeval with that found in the Norwegian Sea, suggesting that the Eurasian Arctic and Northeast Asia were significantly glaciated from 2.75 Ma onwards. Prior to 2.75 Ma planktonic foraminifera δ¹⁸O records indicate a warming or freshening trend of 4°C or 2‰ over 80 ka. If this is interpreted as a warm pre-glacial Pliocene North Pacific, it may have provided the additional moisture required to initially build up the northern hemisphere continental ice sheet. The dramatic drop in sea surface temperatures (SST>7.5°C) at 2.75 Ma ended this suggested period of enhanced SST and thus the proposed moisture pump. Moreover, at 2.79 and 2.73 Ma opal mass accumulation rates (MAR) decrease in two steps by five fold and is accompanied by a more gradual long-term decrease in CaCO₃ MARs. Evidence from the Southern Ocean (ODP site 704) indicates that just prior to 2.6 Ma there is a massive increase in opal MARs, the opposite to what is found in the North Pacific. This indicates that the intensification of northern hemisphere glaciation was accompanied by a major reorganisation of global oceanic chemical budget, possibly caused by changes in deep ocean circulation. The initiation of northern hemisphere glaciation occurred in the late Miocene with a significant build up of ice on southern Greenland. However, the progressive intensification did not occur until 3.5–3 Ma when the Greenland ice sheet expanded to include northern Greenland. Following this stage we suggest that the Eurasian Arctic and Northeast Asia glaciated at 2.75 Ma, approximately 100 ka before the glaciation of Alaska (2.65 Ma) and 200 ka before the glaciation of the North East American continent (2.54 Ma).     

Mediterranean Seagrass Growth and Demography Responses to Experimental Warming

We experimentally examined the effects of increased temperature on growth and demography of two Mediterranean seagrasses Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa. Shoots of C. nodosa and seedlings and shoots of P. oceanica were kept in mesocosms for 3?months and exposed to temperatures between 25 and 32?°C encompassing the range of maximum summer seawater temperatures projected for the Mediterranean Sea during the twenty-first century. The response of P. oceanica seedlings to warming was evident with reduced growth rates, leaf formation rates and leaf biomass per shoot. Younger life stages of P. oceanica may therefore be particularly vulnerable to climate change and warming. Leaf formation rates in the shoots of P. oceanica declined with increasing temperature and the lowest population growth (?0.005?day^?1) was found at 32?°C. Temperature effects on C. nodosa were variable. Rhizome growth increased with warming (0.07?C0.09?cm?day^?1?°C of warming), whereas other indicators of plant performance (aboveground/belowground biomass, leaf biomass and population growth) appeared to be stimulated by increased temperature to a threshold temperature of around 29?C30?°C beyond which they declined. P. oceanica and C. nodosa are likely to be negatively impacted by the effects of global warming over the next century and climate change poses a significant challenge to seagrasses and may stress these key habitat-forming species that are already suffering losses from anthropogenic impacts.     

Surface air temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau: Historical evaluation and future projection based on CMIP6 models

With its amplification simultaneously emerging in cryospheric regions, especially in the Tibetan Plateau, global warming is undoubtedly occurring. In this study, we utilized 28 global climate models to assess model performance regarding surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2014, reported spatiotemporal variability in surface air temperature in the future under four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), and further quantified the timing of warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3 °C) in the region. The results show that the multimodel ensemble means depicted the spatiotemporal patterns of surface air temperature for the past decades well, although with differences across individual models. The projected surface air temperature, by 2099, would warm by 1.9, 3.2, 5.2, and 6.3 °C relative to the reference period (1981–2010), with increasing rates of 0.11, 0.31, 0.53, and 0.70 °C/decade under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the period 2015–2099, respectively. Compared with the preindustrial periods (1850–1900), the mean annual surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau has hit the 1.5 °C threshold and will break 2 °C in the next decade, but there is still a chance to limit the temperature below 3 °C in this century. Our study provides a new understanding of climate warming in high mountain areas and implies the urgent need to achieve carbon neutrality.     

Active layer thickness variations on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under the scenarios of climate change

Climate change has greatly influenced the permafrost regions on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). Most general circulation models (GCMs) project that global warming will continue and the amplitude will amplify during the twenty-first century. Climate change has caused extensive degradation of permafrost, including thickening of the active layer, rising of ground temperature, melting of ground ice, expansion of taliks, and disappearance of sporadic permafrost. The changes in the active layer thickness (ALT) greatly impact the energy balance of the land surface, hydrological cycle, ecosystems and engineering infrastructures in the cold regions. ALT is affected by climatic, geographic and geological factors. A model based on Kudryavtsev’s formulas is used to study the potential changes of ALT in the permafrost regions on the QTP. Maps of ALT for the year 2049 and 2099 on the QTP are projected under GCM scenarios. Results indicate that ALT will increase with the rising air temperature. ALT may increase by 0.1–0.7 m for the year 2049 and 0.3–1.2 m for the year 2099. The average increment of ALT is 0.8 m with the largest increment of 1.2 m under the A1F1 scenario and 0.4 m with the largest increment of 0.6 m under the B1 scenario during the twenty-first century. ALT changes significantly in sporadic permafrost regions, while in the continuous permafrost regions of the inland plateau ALT change is relatively smaller. The largest increment of ALT occurs in the northeastern and southwestern plateaus under both scenarios because of higher ground temperatures and lower soil moisture content in these regions.     

Optically stimulated luminescence chronology of terrace sediments of Siang River,Higher NE Himalaya: Comparison of Quartz and Feldspar chronometers

Four levels of terraces located along Siang River, north of Main Central Thrust at Tuting, NE Himalaya are dated using Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL). The dating technique is applied using (1) Blue LED stimulation on Quartz (2) Infrared Stimulated Luminescence (IRSL) stimulation on Feldspar at 50 °C and (3) Infrared Stimulated Luminescence stimulation on Feldspar at an elevated temperature of 225 °C. The results indicated that the later two protocols on feldspars yielded overestimated ages that suggested incomplete bleaching of luminescence signals in feldspar. The ages derived using quartz suggested a nearly continued valley aggradation from >21–8 ka with three phases of bedrock incision. The phase of aggradation coincides with a climatic transition from cold and dry Last Glacial phase to warm and wet Holocene Optimum. The bedrock incision phases centered at <21 ka, ∼11 ka and ∼8 ka indicate towards major episodes of tectonic uplift in the region around Tuting.     

Progress in rapid climate changes and their modeling study in millennial and centennial scales

Rapid climate change at millennial and centennial scales is one of the most important aspects in paleoclimate study. It has been found that rapid climate change at millennial and centennial scales is a global phenomenon during both the glacial age and the Holocene with amplitudes typical of geological or astronomical time-scales. Simulations of glacial and Holocene climate changes have demonstrated the response of the climate system to the changes of earth orbital parameter and the importance of variations in feedbacks of ocean, vegetation, icecap and greenhouse gases. Modeling experiments suggest that the Atlantic thermohaline circulation was sensitive to the freshwater input into the North Atlantic and was closely related to the rapid climate changes during the last glacial age and the Holocene. Adopting the Earth-system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), CLIMBER-2, the response of East Asian climate change to Dansgaard/Oeschger and Heinrich events during the typical last glacial period (60 ka B.P.-20 ka B.P.) and impacts of ice on the Tibetan plateau on Holocene climate change were stimulated, studied and revealed. Further progress of paleoclimate modeling depends on developing finer-grid models and reconstructing more reliable boundary conditions. More attention should be paid on the study of mechanisms of abrupt climatic changes as well as regional climate changes in the background of global climate change. __________ Translated from Advances in Earth Science, 2007, 22(10): 1054–1065 [译自: 地球科学进展]     

The nature of MIS 3 stadial–interstadial transitions in Europe: New insights from model–data comparisons

15 abrupt warming transitions perturbed glacial climate in Greenland during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3, 60–27 ka BP). One hypothesis states that the 8–16 °C warming between Greenland Stadials (GS) and Interstadials (GI) was caused by enhanced heat transport to the North Atlantic region after a resumption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) from a weak or shutdown stadial mode. This hypothesis also predicts warming over Europe, a prediction poorly constrained by data due to the paucity of well-dated quantitative temperature records. We therefore use a new evidence from biotic proxies and a climate model simulation to study the characteristics of a GS–GI transition in continental Europe and the link to enhanced AMOC strength. We compare reconstructed climatic and vegetation changes between a stadial and subsequent interstadial – correlated to GS15 and GI14 (～55 ka BP) – with a simulated AMOC resumption using a three-dimensional earth system model setup with early-MIS 3 boundary conditions. Over western Europe (12°W–15°E), we simulate twice the annual precipitation, a 17 °C warmer coldest month, a 8 °C warmer warmest month, 1300 °C-day more growing degree days with baseline 5 °C (GDD5) and potential vegetation allowing tree cover after the transition. However, the combined effect of frequent killing frosts, <20 mm summer precipitation and too few GDD5 after the transition suggest a northern tree limit lying at ～50°N during GI14. With these 3 climatic limiting factors we provide a possible explanation for the absence of forests north of 48°N during MIS 3 interstadials with mild summers. Finally, apart from a large model bias in warmest month surface air temperatures, our simulation is in reasonable agreement with reconstructed climatic and vegetation changes in Europe, thus further supporting the hypothesis.     

Mid-Wisconsin seasonal temperatures reconstructed from fossil beetle assemblages in eastern North America: comparisons with other proxy records from the Northern Hemisphere

Mutual climatic range (MCR) analysis was applied to 15 North American beetle assemblages spanning the interval from > 52 000 to 17 200 yr BP, bracketing a Mid-Wisconsin interstadial interval. The analyses yielded estimates of mean July (TMAX) and mean January (TMIN) temperatures. The oldest assemblage (> 52 ka) yielded TMAX values 7.5–8°C lower than present and TMIN values 15–18°C lower than present. A Mid-Wisconsin interstadial warming dating from 43.5–39 ka was rapid and intense. At the peak of the warming event, about 42 ka, TMAX values were only 1–2°C lower than modern. This level of amelioration apparently lasted only about 2000–3000 yr. By 23.7 ka, TMAX values declined to 11.5–10°C lower than modern, but another, small-scale amelioration is indicated by assemblages dating from 20.5 to 19.7 ka. The interstadial event recorded from the site at Titusville, Pennsylvania closely matches the timing and intensity of the climate change estimated from British beetle faunas in the Upton Warren interstadial. Another warm interval (ca. 31–32.5 ka) has been documented from fossil beetle assemblages in Europe and North America. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A record of pre-Variscan Barrovian regional metamorphism in the eastern part of the Slavonian Mountains (NE Croatia)

Summary Petrological investigations and monazite dating are carried out on medium-grade metamorphic rocks (micaschist, gneiss and amphibolite) from the Kutjevačka Rijeka transect in the Slavonian Mts., Tisia Unit (NE Croatia). Field, mesoscopic and microstructural observations, as well as the preserved mineral chemistry, point to a single metamorphic event during peak assemblage growth reaching amphibolite facies conditions of ca. 600–650 °C and 8–11 kbar. Th, U and Pb contents of yttrium-rich accessory monazites indicate a pre-Variscan, i.e. Ordovician-Silurian age (444 ± 19 and 428 ± 25 Ma) for the medium-grade metamorphism of garnet-bearing micaschist.     

Does the Agulhas Current amplify global temperatures during super‐interglacials?

Future projections of climate suggest our planet is moving into a ‘super‐interglacial’. Here we report a global synthesis of ice, marine and terrestrial data from a recent palaeoclimate equivalent, the Last Interglacial (ca. 130–116 ka ago). Our analysis suggests global temperatures were on average ～1.5°C higher than today (relative to the AD 1961–1990 period). Intriguingly, we identify several Indian Ocean Last Interglacial sequences that suggest persistent early warming, consistent with leakage of warm, saline waters from the Agulhas Current into the Atlantic, intensifying meridional ocean circulation and increasing global temperatures. This mechanism may have played a significant positive feedback role during super‐interglacials and could become increasingly important in the future. These results provide an important insight into a future 2°C climate stabilisation scenario. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in summer monsoon precipitation over Hunan Province during 1952–2007: response to the west Pacific sea surface temperature and global warming

Using a historical database (1952–2007) of sea surface temperature (SST) from a subtropical high-controlled area (110°E–140°E, 15°N–35°N) of the west Pacific Ocean and the precipitation over Hunan Province of southeast China, we analyzed time series variations of precipitation in relation to the East Asian summer monsoon and a global warming setting. The results show that there has been a significant increase in SST of the subtropical high-controlled area in the recent 50 years. Although the increase in annual summer monsoon precipitation during the same period has been subtle over Hunan province, seasonal rainfall distribution has obviously changed, represented by a reduction in May, but a significant increase through June to August, especially in July. We suggest that the mechanism of seasonal redistribution of monsoon precipitation is primarily due to the increasing SST that delays the intrusion of the west Pacific Subtropical High, therefore leading to a postponing of migration of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall belt inland and northward.     

Rapid warming in mid-latitude central Asia for the past 100 years

Surface air temperature variations during the last 100 years (1901–2003) in mid-latitude central Asia were analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The results suggest that temperature variations in four major sub-regions, i.e. the eastern monsoonal area, central Asia, the Mongolian Plateau and the Tarim Basin, respectively, are coherent and characterized by a striking warming trend during the last 100 years. The annual mean temperature increasing rates at each sub-region (representative station) are 0.19°C per decade, 0.16°C per decade, 0.23°C per decade and 0.15°C per decade, respectively. The average annual mean temperature increasing rate of the four sub-regions is 0.18°C per decade, with a greater increasing rate in winter (0.21°C per decade). In Asian mid-latitude areas, surface air temperature increased relatively slowly from the 1900s to 1970s, and it has increased rapidly since 1970s. This pattern of temperature variation differs from that in the other areas of China. Notably, there was no obvious warming between the 1920s and 1940s, with temperature fluctuating between warming and cooling trends (e.g. 1920s, 1940s, 1960s, 1980s, 1990s). However, the warming trends are of a greater magnitude and their durations are longer than that of the cooling periods, which leads to an overall warming. The amplitude of temperature variations in the study region is also larger than that in eastern China during different periods.     

Maximum Storm Surge Curve Due to Global Warming for the European North Sea Region During the 20th–21st Century

Computations of storm surges during the 20th century needs to incorporate globalwarming of about 0.6 °C ± 0.2 °C (IPCC, 2001). In order totake this global warming into consideration, the development of all storm surgesoccurred during the 20th century have been analysed. The study comprises determiningto what degree the storm surge curve and storm surge level depend on each other. Thisfact can be used to calculate a maximum storm surge curve and each single storm surgeevent can be summarised. The tendency of the surge and wind parameters do not showthat this maximum storm surge levels in the 20th century will occur earlier than predicted, however, the global warming of 0.6 °C will extend the duration of the mean storm surge curve.     

郑州邙山马兰黄土的光释光(OSL)测年初步研究

对郑州市西北邙山黄土塬赵下峪(34°58'N,113°22'E)剖面上部马兰黄土(厚约87m)不同层位的24个样品作了细颗粒(4-11μm)组分红外释光(IRSL)测年,其中8个样品同时进行了细颗粒组分绿光释光(GLSL)测年。样品的IRSL和GLSL信号强度都在Daybreak1100TL/OSL检测系统中测量。该系统的本底计数为70-80光子/秒。被检测的IRSL和GLSL波长分别为340-480nm和340±25nm;激发光束波长分别为880±80nm和514±14nm,功率为18mW和15-16mW。所有样品的等效剂量都用再生释光法测定;环境剂量率是通过测定样品的铀、钍和钾含量,按Aitken(1985)的转换系数确定的,考虑了含水量的影响及宇宙射线的贡献。从这批样品的光释光测年结果可得以下初步认识:
(1)8个样品细颗粒组分的IRSL和GLSL测定的等效剂量和年龄值,除1个样品外,都在1-2σ范围内一致。这可能提供了沉积物光释光测年可靠性的一种自检方法。(2)邙山剖面马兰黄土不同层位段的沉积速率变化十分显著,从0.4m/ka到5.6m/ka,并与剖面上质量磁化率测定值的变化大致相吻合。该剖面马兰黄土至少有4个快速堆积层(沉积速率>3m/ka),其磁化率低而变化小;3个缓慢堆积层(沉积速率<0.5m/ka),其磁化率大或变化显著,它们之间有一系列过渡层。(3)邙山马兰黄土大体可三分即上部(L_1-1)埋深2.7-27.5m,中部(L_1-2)埋深27.5-57.9m)和下部(L_1-3)埋深57.9-87.9m。它们的形成年代分别为10.8-36.2ka B P,36.2-70.3ka B P和70.3-80.2ka B P。较详细的黄土-古土壤序列年代表将在文中讨论      

Methods for determination of the age of Pleistocene tephra,derived from eruption of Toba,in central India

Tephra, emplaced as a result of Pleistocene eruption of the Indonesian ‘supervolcano’ Toba, occurs at many localities in India. However, the ages of these deposits have hitherto been contentious; some workers have argued that these deposits mark the most recent eruption (eruption A, ca 75 ka), although at some sites they are stratigraphically associated with Acheulian (Lower Palaeolithic) artefacts. Careful examination of the geochemical composition of the tephras, which are composed predominantly of shards of rhyolitic glass, indicates that discrimination between the products of eruption A and eruption D (ca 790 ka) of Toba is difficult. Nonetheless, this comparison favours eruption D as the source of the tephra deposits at some sites in India, supporting the long-held view that the Lower Palaeolithic of India spans the late Early Pleistocene. In principle, these tephra deposits should be dateable using the K–Ar system; however, previous experience indicates contamination by a small proportion of ancient material, resulting in apparent ages that exceed the true ages of the tephras. We have established the optimum size-fraction in which the material from Toba is concentrated, 53–61 μm, and have considered possible origins for the observed contamination. We also demonstrate that Ar–Ar analysis of four out of five of our samples has yielded material with an apparent age similar to that expected for eruption D. These numerical ages, of 809 ± 51, 714 ± 62, 797 ± 45 and 827 ± 39 ka for the tephras at Morgaon, Bori, Gandhigram and Simbhora, provide a weighted mean age for this eruption of 799 ± 24 ka (plus-or-minus two standard deviations). However, these numerical ages are each derived from no more than 10–20% of the argon release in each sample, which is not ideal. Nonetheless, our results demonstrate that it is feasible, in principle, to date this difficult material using the Ar–Ar technique; future follow-up studies will therefore be able to refine our preparation and analysis procedures to better optimize the dating.     

Annual variation of temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon decomposition in North peatlands: implications for thermal responses of carbon cycling to global warming

Temperature sensitivities of microbial respiration and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production were investigated by using a novel method, thermal gradient (2–20°C) temperature bar, in two typical peatlands (bog and fen) in North Wales, UK over 12 months. The study indicated that temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon decomposition in North peatlands was regulated not only by temperature but soil water content, dry–rewet event and phenologies. Potential decreases of Q₁₀ (CO₂) with increasing soil temperature were confirmed in both peatlands, but Q₁₀ (DOC) increase with increasing soil temperature in both bog and fen sites. These results imply, if other factors such as the so-called CO₂ fertilization effect are simultaneously taken into account, that the feedback of global warming induced CO₂ release from peatlands to climate change may be overestimated in current biogeochemical models. However, global warming might have been nonlinearly accelerating DOC thermal production, and therefore it helps explaining the causes of remarkable increase of DOC in surface water in the Northern Hemisphere during last several decades.     

黄土高原东南部黄土记录的全新世东亚季风变化

在全球变暖背景下,未来东亚季风的变化一直备受关注,而东亚季风演化规律的研究能够为未来的预测提供重要基础。黄土-古土壤序列几乎连续地记录了古东亚季风变化的信息,本文选取黄土高原东南部的荥阳、偃师、灵宝、吉县、丁村五个剖面进行磁化率和古风化强度分析,重建了黄土高原东南部两万年以来的东亚夏季风演化历史: 18～12 ka B. P.,季风强度较弱; 12～10 ka B. P.,季风强度显著增强; 10～6 ka B. P.,季风强度最强; 6 ka B. P.以后季风强度逐渐减弱。对比发现黄土高原东南缘全新世东亚夏季风的演化与东亚季风区不同纬度代表性记录基本同步,没有显著的区域性差别; 东亚夏季风变化主要受控于北半球低纬太阳辐射,但存在明显滞后。同时发现全新世古土壤磁化率与古风化强度峰值在地层中的位置往往不一致,在风化较强的地区,古风化强度最大值位置偏下,两个指标相比,古风化强度能够更客观地反映东亚夏季风强度。