A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations

Summary A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present January climate.List of Symbols west-east mesh size in geographic coordinates south-north mesh size in geographic coordinates N number of large-scale weather classes n number of regional-scale event classes p pressure P probability Ø large-scale event regional-scale event q _v specific humidity potential temperature u west-east wind component v south-north wind componentAbbreviations AGL above ground level - LT local time - UTC universal time coordinated With 13 Figures     

Small-Scale Variability in the Coastal Atmospheric Boundary Layer

The influence of the main large-scale wind directions on thermally driven mesoscale circulations at the Baltic southwest coast, southeast of Sweden, is examined. The aim of the study is to highlight small-scale alterations in the coastal atmospheric boundary layer. A numerical three-dimensional mesoscale model is used in this study, which is focused on an overall behaviour of the coastal jets, drainage flows, sea breezes, and a low-level eddy-type flow in particular. It is shown that synoptic conditions, together with the moderate terrain of the southeast of Sweden (max. height h₀ 206 m), governs the coastal mesoscale dynamics triggered by the land-sea temperature difference T. The subtle nature of coastal low-level jets and sea breezes is revealed; their patterns are dictated by the interplay between synoptic airflow, coastline orientation, and T.The simulations show that coastal jets typically occur during nighttime and vary in height, intensity and position with respect to the coast; they interact with downslope flows and the background wind. For the assigned land surface temperature (varying ±8 K from the sea temperature) and the opposing constant geostrophic wind 8 m s^-1, the drainage flow is more robust to the opposing ambient flow than the sea breeze later on. Depending on the part of the coast under consideration, and the prevailing ambient wind, the sea breeze can be suppressed or enhanced, stationary at the coast or rapidly penetrating inland, locked up in phase with another dynamic system or almost independently self-evolving. A low-level eddy structure is analyzed. It is governed by tilting, divergence and horizontal advection terms. The horizontal extent of the coastal effects agrees roughly with the Rossby radius of deformation.     

Advertent/inadvertent changes in the spatial distribution of rainfall in the central coastal plain of Israel

Analysis of recent rainfall normals reveals an unusual spatial pattern where the rainfall increases with the distance from the sea over the central coastal plain of Israel. Applying a multiple regression technique separately to rainfall amounts for the two randomized experiments of cloud seeding of seeded days and not seeded days, leads to the conclusion that the inadvertent influence of recent urbanization processes along the coastal plain are the cause of this phenomenon, rather than the advertent artificial cloud seeding. The seeding effect at the target area, on the other hand, seems to increase the inhomogeneity of the spatial structure of the rainfall distribution.     

PHYSICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON DELTAIC COASTAL SYSTEMS (II): DRIVING TERMS

The evaluation of the impact of climatic change on deltaic coastal systems requires establishing a reference situation. As deltaic coastal zones are highly dynamic areas, it is necessary to define the reference situation as a function of their present evolutive stage. This implies characterizing coastal processes as a complex system defined by the links between driving or forcing terms and the coastal response at different temporal and spatial scales (long/large, medium and episodic scales). Starting from classical previous works on deltaic systems and including all available field and conceptual knowledge to properly consider present conditions (largely regulated rivers, subsidence, etc.) a detailed methodology to analyse forcing or driving agents at the three mentioned scales is presented. This methodology which developed the general approach presented in a companion paper, will be followed by a future paper focusing on the analysis of the coastal response.     

Evidence of recent climatic anomalies at Trieste (Italy)

A recent noticeable climatic anomaly in some meteomarine quantities is analysed based on observations during the period March 1, 1971-February 28, 1993 taken in Trieste (Italy). Marked deviations from the normal values of the coupled quantities atmospheric pressure-solar irradiance and atmospheric pressure-sea level elevation, during the last 22 years, are analysed. The procedures used bring out a clear and persistent configuration of high pressure, high irradiance and low sea level from 1989 on, previously unmatched.     

A Green Planet Versus a Desert World: Estimating the Maximum Effect of Vegetation on the Land Surface Climate

We quantify the maximum possible influence of vegetation on the global climate by conducting two extreme climate model simulations: in a first simulation (desert world), values representative of a desert are used for the land surface parameters for all non glaciated land regions. At the other extreme, a second simulation is performed (green planet) in which values are used which are most beneficial for the biosphere's productivity. Land surface evapotranspiration more than triples in the presence of the green planet, land precipitation doubles (as a second order effect) and near surface temperatures are lower by as much as 8 K in the seasonal mean resulting from the increase in latent heat flux. The differences can be understood in terms of more absorbed radiation at the surface and increased recycling of water. Most of the increase in net surface radiation originates from less thermal radiative loss and not from increases in solar radiation which would be expected from the albedo change. To illustrate the differences in climatic character and what it would imply for the vegetation type, we use the Köppen climate classification. Both cases lead to similar classifications in the extra tropics and South America indicating that the character of the climate is not substantially altered in these regions. Fundamental changes occur over Africa, South Asia and Australia, where large regions are classified as arid (grassland/desert) climate in the desert world simulation while classified as a forest climate in the green planet simulation as a result of the strong influence of maximum vegetation on the climate. This implies that these regions are especially sensitive to biosphere-atmosphere interaction.     

A projection of future sea level

Evidence is reviewed that suggests faster sea-level rise when climate gets warmer. Four processes appear as dominating on a time scale of decades to centuries: melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps, changes in the mass balance of the large polar ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica), possible ice-flow instabilities (in particular on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet), and thermal expansion of ocean water.For a given temperature scenario, an attempt is made to estimate the different contributions. The calculation yields a figure of 9.5 cm of sea-level rise since 1850 AD, which is within the uncertainty range of estimates of the observed rise.A further 33 cm rise is found as most likely for the year 2050, but the uncertainty is very large ( = 32 cm). The contribution from melting of land ice is of the same order of magnitude as thermal expansion. The mass-balance effects of the major ice sheets tend to cancel to some extent (increasing accumulation on Antarctica, increasing ablation on Greenland). For the year 2100 a value of 66 cm above the present-day stand is found ( = 57 cm). The estimates of the standard deviation include uncertainty in the temperature scenario, as presented elsewhere in this volume.     

Interactions between coherent eddies in the lower convective boundary layer

The processes of interaction between the atmospheric surface and mixed layers in daytime convective conditions over land are studied using a data set obtained during flights by an instrumented aircraft. Profiles of partitioned run-averaged statistics and examples of time series plots are discussed in the light of results from a recently published study by the authors, in which the average structure and flow within coherent eddies was reconstruced using a compositing technique. This evidence is used to support a conceptual model of the mechanisms of interaction between surface-layer plumes and mixed-layer thermal columns. The divergent flow created near the surface by the downdraft arms of the large-scale mixed-layer circulation patterns, forces the development of lines of convergence in the surface layer (the so-called thermal walls), which channel air into the bases of the mixed-layer thermals. Plumes progressively group and merge together with height in the surface and free convection layers, and move along these convergence lines toward large collector plumes at the intersection points, or hubs. Above the hubs are the thermals, and air parcels originating from plumes and their environment are strongly mixed as they rise, leading to an increased difficulty of the conditional sampling method to distinguish between them. The observed influence of mixed-layer convective processes far down into the surface layer, and the form of the averaged profiles, supports recent refinements of the theory of surface-layer structure suggested in Kader and Yaglom (1990).Notation CBL convective boundary layer - SL surface layer - FCL free convection layer - ML mixed layer     

A dynamical analysis of the drag conditions at the sea surface

When applied to a sea surface, shortcomings are noted for the ordinary classification of drag conditions at rigid underlying surfaces according to the Reynolds roughness number Re _s . It is shown that in the case of mobile underlying surfaces, it would be more natural to use the dynamical classification of drag conditions according to the order of magnitude of the ratio ( = /) of the momentum flux toward the waves ( _w) to the viscous momentum flux through the surface ( _w). The relevant estimates of for the main stages of development of the wind waves indicate that the observed values of the drag coefficient of the sea surface correspond to the case of underdeveloped roughness.     

Wind profile development above a locally adjusted sea surface

Results are presented from a numerical experiment of wind and shear stress profile development away from a shore line; the water surface is assumed to obey the Charnock-Ellison relation between surface roughness and friction velocity. In typical cases the upwind, land surface is rough relative to the sea and the velocity and shear stress results are qualitatively similar to those for flows from relatively rough to relatively smooth solid surfaces. In the present case, however, the downwind surface roughness and friction velocity vary with position and we find that wind profile development may play a significant role in the relationship between sea surface roughness and fetch.     

Spectra,variances and length scales in a marine stable boundary layer dominated by a low level jet

A flow situation over coastal waters of the Baltic Sea is studied. The boundary layer was characterized by stable stratification and the presence of a pronounced low level jet at very low height, 30–150 m, above the surface of the sea. The atmospheric surface layer was apparently extremely shallow; thus the non-dimensional wind gradients and temperature gradients derived from measurements at 8 m do not show adherence to Monin-Obukhov similarity, in sharp contrast to findings from the same site at similar stability conditions but with no low level jet. Instead these quantities are shown to be governed by scales characteristic of stable shear flow away from the surface. The height to the jet centre appears to be an important quantity. Thus, for the cases with the lowest jet height values (30–50 m), some turbulent characteristics of the flow (non-dimensional velocity standard deviations and the correlation between the longitudinal and vertical velocity) have values similar to those found for the zero pressure-gradient laboratory boundary layer over a flat plate (the so called canonical boundary layer) rather than the typical values found in atmospheric boundary-layer flow. It was inferred that the large scale fluctuations known as inactive turbulence, as well as gravity waves, were suppressed in this case.     

A note on the analogy between momentum transfer across a rough solid surface and the air-sea interface

The aerodynamic classification of the resistance laws above solid surfaces is based on the use of a so-called Reynolds roughness number Re _s =h _s u _*/, whereh _s is the effective roughness height, -viscosity,u _*-friction velocity. The recent experimental studies reported by Toba and Ebuchi (1991), demonstrated that the observed variability of the sea roughness cannot be explained only on the basis of the classification of aerodynamic conditions of the sea surface proposed by Kitaigorodskii and Volkov (1965) and Kitaigorodskii (1968) even though the latter approach gains some support from recent experimental studies (see for example Geernaertet al. 1986). In this paper, an attempt is made to explain some of the recently observed features of the variability of surface roughness (Toba and Ebuchi, 1991; Donelanet al., 1993). The fluctuating regime of the sea surface roughness is also described. It is shown that the contribution from the dissipation subrange to the variability of the sea surface can be very important and by itself can explain Charnock's (1955) regime.     

Free convection frequency spectra of atmospheric turbulence over the sea

Frequency spectra of atmospheric turbulenceS (f) in the inertial subrange are considered in the free convection regime over the sea surface in a case of motionless instrument measurements (Eulerian frequency spectra). The frequency spectra formulaef _* S (f)/ ² =c (f _*/f)^5/3 for wind velocity (=1–3), temperature (=t) and humidity (=e) fluctuations are derived on the basis of similarity theory and the –5/3 law. These relations also can be derived from a consideration of convective large-scale advection of small eddies. The frequency scalef _* = (N ^{1 2}/)^1/2 (H/z ²)^1/3 is the lower bound of the inertial subrange and it is of order 10^–2 Hz.The spectra formulae are compared with direct measurements of atmospheric turbulence from the fixed research tower in the coastal zone of the Black Sea in calm weather. It is shown that these formulae are realized at least over two to three decades of the frequency range (approximately from 10^–2 to 10 Hz) and values of the numerical coefficients are found. The derived formulae can be used for calculations of sensible and latent heat fluxes by measuring the high-frequency range of spectra at a fixed point at low wind speeds when the conventional inertial dissipation method is not applicable.     

The structure of the stably stratified internal boundary layer in offshore flow over the sea

Observations obtained mainly from a research aircraft are presented of the mean and turbulent structure of the stably stratified internal boundary layer (IBL) over the sea formed by warm air advection from land to sea. The potential temperature and humidity fields reveal the vertical extent of the IBL, for fetches out to several hundred of kilometres, geostrophic winds of 20–25 m s^–1, and potential temperature differences between undisturbed continental air and the sea surface of 7 to 17 K. The dependence of IBL depth on these external parameters is discussed in the context of the numerical results of Garratt (1987), and some discrepancies are noted.Wind observations show the development of a low-level wind maximum (wind component normal to the coast) and rotation of the wind to smaller cross-isobar flow angles. Potential temperature () profiles within the IBL reveal quite a different structure to that found in the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) over land. Over the sea, profiles have large positive curvature with vertical gradients increasing monotonically with height; this reflects the dominance of turbulent cooling within the layer. The behaviour is consistent with known behaviour in the NBL over land where curvature becomes negative (vertical gradients of decreasing with height) as radiative cooling becomes dominant.Turbulent properties are discussed in terms of non-dimensional quantities, normalised by the surface friction velocity, as functions of normalised height using the IBL depth. Vertical profiles of these and the normalised wavelength of the spectral maximum agree well with known results for the stable boundary layer over land (Caughey et al., 1979).     

The streamwise Kolmogoroff constant

Observations over grassland of the turbulent kinetic energy in a band of frequencies in the inertial subrange of the spectrum of the streamwise wind component are related to the stress indicated by the wind profiles. The object is to determine the effective Kolmogoroff constant, _UB , which accords with the assumption of balance between turbulent energy production and dissipation. The mean from 60 half-hour runs made under stability conditions ranging from neutral to moderate instability is _UB = 0.62.This result is compared with those from other studies; four over grassland and six over the sea or a lake. There is no significant difference between the means of the land and sea values, but the latter are more scattered, partly because of difficulties in securing suitable exposure of the instruments for the stress measurements. The mean value from all ten sets of observations is _UB = 0.59 ± 0.025. So the dissipation method should be capable of giving the drag coefficient of the sea in strong winds with an uncertainty of no more than about 10%.     

Radon daughter disequilibria in the lower marine boundary layer

Radon daughters are produced as free ions, but they become attached to aerosol particles at a rate depending on the particle concentration. In the lower marine boundary layer, most of those which do not become attached plate out on the ocean surface. In this paper a simple model is used to examine the influence of several parameters on radon/radon daughter disequilibria in maritime air. The model is compared with experimental data from Cape Grim.The radon daughter to radon ratio, f, decreases from 0.86 to 0.1 as the particle concentration falls from 1000 to 10 cm^-3. Estimates of radon concentration at sea level, based on daughter measurements may therefore be in error by as much as a factor of 10 unless allowance is made for particle concentration. At 100 cm^-3, the standard deviation of the distribution of measured f values is about 30%, indicating that the particle concentration is not the only factor influencing the loss of radon daughters. The implication is that radon daughters can be used to measure radon concentrations at sea level with an accuracy of about 30%, provided the particle concentration is known.The measurements show that there is a very low proportion of unattached daughers in the air between about 30 and 165 m above sea level. According to the model, this implies that mixing of air up to about 200 m is usually rapid enough to result in plate-out of radon daughters on the ocean on a time scale of less than 100 s.     

Variation Of Urban Momentum Roughness Length With Land Use In The Upwind Source Area,As Observed in Two U.K. Cities

The possibility of obtaining urban roughness length from satellite-derived maps of land cover is explored, using turbulence measurements taken above the urban canopy. The upwind land cover is identified using a source-area model. Firstly, from four sets of measurements taken in Birmingham (U.K.), it is shown that in an area mainly split between the land-cover types urban and suburban, suburban cover in the upwind source area is the more important contributor to increasing measured roughness length. A smaller dataset obtained in a second U.K. city (Salford, Greater Manchester) shows a similar result. A roughness-length aggregation model is also applied to the data from both sites. This assigns values of roughness length to each of the land-cover classifications and uses the source-area model to predict the resultant roughness length based on the wind properties. The results from this are shown to agree with the earlier findings.The British Crowns right to retain a non-exclusive royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged     

Regular and seasonal behaviour of atmospheric radio noise field strength (ARNFS) over low latitude station calcutta

Summary The electromagnetic radiation of cloud discharge known as atmospheric radio noise field strength (ARNFS) shows a gradual fall from a frequency of 9 kHz to 81 kHz as studied over a period of two years at Calcutta, very close to Bay of Bengal. The main characteristic features of ARNFS at Calcutta are that-(i) ARNFS shows that midday median value is smaller than midnight median value in all months, (ii) level of daily minimum is higher in February and monsoon compared to other seasons, (iii) sunrise effect and sunset effect are well correlated with local sunrise and sunset times, (iv) the magnitude of sunrise fade and sunrise fade rate are maximum in April and lowest during winter period, (v) the magnitude of sunset fade is higher in premonsoon and postmonsoon while it is lowest in monsoon, (vi) number of occurrence of both sunrise effect and sunset effect is remark-ably smaller in monsoon. The positions of the sun and of atmospheric sources are jointly the causes of seasonal and diurnal variations. The missing of sunrise effect and sunset effect are due to local cloud activity and variation of electron density during geomagnetic storms.With 7 Figures     

Turbulence characteristics in a near neutrally stratified urban atmosphere

Turbulence measurements from the city of Uppsala, Sweden, are analysed. Measurements were taken at two sites: one in the central area, ca. 6 m above roof level, the average building height being ca. 15 m; the other at ca. 8 and 50 m above the ground on a tower situated 100 m downwind of a sharp discontinuity between the densely built-up urban area and flat grass-covered land. The average stability was close to neutral, the range being -0.2 < z/L < 0.2. The main emphasis of the study is on the non-dimensional standard deviations of the velocity components _i /u _*t and on the corresponding non-dimensional energy spectra, u _*t being a local velocity scale defined as _i /( _l is the local momentum flux). Comparison with results obtained from surface-layer measurements at ideal sites (with u _*, being the ordinary friction velocity) shows good general agreement. The most complete agreement is found for the tower 50 m measurements, a result which is notable as this measurement point is found to be within a distinctly transitional zone between the urban and post-urban boundary layers. The results from the central city measurement point are also fairly close to the ideal results, the deviations found being small in view of the fact that the site is probably inside the layer in which the roughness elements (the buildings) have direct influence. The measurements at the tower 8 m level show certain distinct deviations from ideal results: all three _i /u _*l , are higher by ca. 10%, the excessive energy being found at the low frequency end of the spectrum. Arguments are presented for this feature to be due to a spectral lag effect.     

The stably stratified internal boundary layer for steady and diurnally varying offshore flow

A two-dimensional numerical mesoscale model is used to investigate the internal structure and growth of the stably stratified internal boundary layer (IBL) beneath warm, continental air flowing over a cooler sea. Two situations are studied — steady-state and diurnally varying offshore flow. In the steady-state case, vertical profiles of mean quantities and eddy diffusion coefficients (K) within the IBL show small, but significant, changes with increasing distance from the coast. The top of the IBL is well defined, with large vertical gradients within the layer and a maximum in the coast-normal wind component near the top. Well away from the coast, turbulence, identified by non-zero K, decreases to insignificant levels near the top of the IBL; the IBL itself is characterised by a critical value of the layer-flux Richardson number equal to 0.18. The overall behaviour of the mean profiles is similar to that found in the horizontally homogeneous stable boundary layer over land.A simple physical model is used to relate the depth of the layer h to several relevant physical parameters viz., x, the distance from the coast and U, the large-scale wind (both normal to the coastline) and g/, being the temperature difference between continental mixed-layer air and sea surface, is the mean potential temperature and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Excellent agreement with the numerical results is found, with h = 0.014x ^1/2 U (g/)^–1/2.In the diurnally varying case, the mean profiles within the IBL show only small differences from the steady-state case, although diurnal variations, particularly in the wind maximum, are evident within a few hundred kilometres of the coast. A mesoscale circulation normal to the coast, and superimposed upon the mean offshore flow, develops seawards of the coastline with maximum vertical velocities about sunset, of depth about 2 km and horizontal scale 500 km. The circulation is related to the advection, and subsequent decay, of daytime convective turbulence over the sea.