Statistical analysis of daily maximum and monthly precipitation at Belgrade

Summary  A statistical analysis of monthly mean and daily maximum precipitation at Belgrade during the period 1888–1995 is presented. A very high correlation coefficient exists between the monthly and daily maximum precipitation. Weather types that are associated with the maximum daily precipitation at Belgrade are also analysed. Received July 19, 1999 Revised December 25, 1999     

Extreme daily precipitation: the case of Serbia in 2014

The extreme daily precipitation in Serbia was examined at 16 stations during the period 1961–2014. Two synoptic situations in May and September of 2014 were analysed, when extreme precipitation was recorded in western and eastern Serbia, respectively. The synoptic situation from 14 to 16 May 2014 remained nearly stationary over the western and central Serbia for the entire period. On 15 May 2014, the daily rainfall broke previous historical records in Belgrade (109.8 mm), Valjevo (108.2 mm) and Loznica (110 mm). Precipitation exceeded 200 mm in 72 h, producing the most catastrophic floods in the recent history of Serbia. In Negotin (eastern Serbia), daily precipitation of 161.3 mm was registered on 16 September 2014, which was the maximum value recorded during the period 1961–2014. The daily maximum in 2014 was registered at 6 out of 16 stations. The total annual precipitation for 2014 was the highest for the period 1961–2014 at almost all stations in Serbia. A non-significant positive trend was found for all precipitation indices: annual daily maximum precipitation, the total precipitation in consecutive 3 and 5 days, the total annual precipitation, and number of days with at least 10 and 20 mm of precipitation. The generalised extreme value distribution was fitted to the annual daily maximum precipitation. The estimated 100-year return levels were 123.4 and 147.4 mm for the annual daily maximum precipitation in Belgrade and Negotin, respectively.

     

Surface ozone concentrations in Agra: links with the prevailing meteorological parameters

Measurements of surface ozone (O₃), nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x=NO+NO₂) and meteorological parameters have been made at Agra (North Central India, 27°10??N, 78°05??E) in post monsoon and winter season. The diurnal variation in O₃ concentration shows daytime in situ photochemical production with diurnal maximum in noon hours ranging from 51 to 54 ppb in post monsoon and from 76 to 82 ppb in winter, while minimum (16?C24 ppb) during nighttime and early morning hours. Average 8-h O₃ concentration varied from 12.4 to 83.9 ppb. The relationship between meteorological parameters (solar radiation intensity, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind direction) and surface O₃ variability was studied using principal component analysis (PCA), multiple linear regression (MLR) and correlation analysis (CA). PCA and MLR of daily mean O₃ concentrations on meteorological parameters explain up to 80 % of day to day ozone variability. Correlation with meteorology is strongly emphasized on days having strong solar radiation intensity and longer sunshine time.     

贵州年降水量和年最大月降水量多年一遇的极值计算

根据贵州省84个气象站1961-2007年的月降水资料,用耿贝尔极值I型分布分别对贵州省年降水量和年最大月降水量2种变量进行拟合,进而计算它们在不同重现期下的极值.结果表明:贵州省的降水量集中分布在东南部地区,其中贵州的安顺及黔东南地区降水量较为突出,晴隆15、30、50a一遇的年最大月、年降水量分别为559.8mm、617.1mm、658.9mm和2 019.6mm、2 177.9mm、2 293.2mm,都匀15、30、50a一遇的年最大月、年降水量分别为557mm、626.6mm、677.3mm和1 892.8mm、2 044.9mm、2 155.8mm,对拟合结果的评判采用相对均方根误差进行检验,其年降水量平均相对均方根误差为6%,年最大月降水量平均相对均方根误差为9%,可见拟合良好,对其不同重现期下的极值估计结果可信.     

Recent trends in regional air temperature and precipitation and links to global climate change in the Maharlo watershed,Southwestern Iran

Trends in air temperature and precipitation data are investigated for linkages to global warming and climate change. After checking for serial correlation with trend-free pre-whitening procedure, the Mann–Kendall test is used to detect monotonic trends and the Mann–Whitney test is used for trend step change. The case study is Maharlo watershed, Southwestern Iran, representing a semi-arid environment. Data are for the 1951–2011 period, from four temperature sites and seven precipitation sites. A homogeneity test investigates regional similarity of the time series data. The results include mean annual, mean annual maximum and minimum and seasonal analysis of air temperature and precipitation data. Mean annual temperature results indicate an increasing trend, while a non-significant trend in precipitation is observed in all the stations. Furthermore, significant phase change was detected in mean annual air temperature trend of Shiraz station in 1977, indicating decreasing trend during 1951–1976 and increasing trend during 1977–2011. The annual precipitation analysis for Shiraz shows a non-significant decrease during 1951–1976 and 1977–2011. The result of homogeneity test reveals that the studied stations form one homogeneous region. While air temperature trends appear as regional linkage to global warming/global climate change, more definite outcome requires analysis of longer time series data on precipitation and air temperature.     

Atmospheric circulation and daily precipitation in Wales

Summary Daily precipitation affinity areas are established for Wales by means of S-mode Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Cluster Analysis, using data for the autumn-winter (September-January) period, 1982–87, subset according to surface wind direction. Relatively strong PCA simple structures were found for five wind directions clockwise from south to north, using the OBLIMIN rotation for the first four (south to northwest) and the VARIMAX rotation for the last (north). Whilst interpretation of many of the most significant Prinicipal Components (PCs) was difficult in strictly meteorological or climatological terms, the precipitation areas produced by clustering based on the most important PCs, yielded a continuum of change in areal organisation with progressively changing wind direction. Only the far southwest and northwest of the country appear in every area map, although superficially, northeastern, English border and southeastern areas were present on most. The derived areas bear only small overall resemblance to currently used forecasting areas.With 9 Figures     

北京地区夏季极端降水变化特征及城市化影响

利用1981-2016年京津冀地区174个国家站逐日降水资料,采用百分位方法和线性倾向估计方法对京津冀地区极端降水的时空分布特征及演变趋势进行了分析。结果表明：（1）对于京津冀地区极端降水空间分布,不同百分位降水阈值表现为一致的分布特征,年平均极端降水量、平均极端降水强度与百分位极端降水阈值分布大体一致,而年平均极端降水日数的分布则与其相反。（2）年平均极端降水量在103.6~259.1 mm之间,年平均极端降水日数在3.0~4.0 d之间,平均极端降水强度在大雨到暴雨之间,极端降水量对总降水量贡献达28%以上。（3）极端降水总站次和极端降水日数年变化趋势一致,7月、8月和10月是极端降水较活跃月份。（4）在36 a期间,年平均极端降水量、年平均极端降水日数、平均极端降水强度以及极端降水量对总降水量贡献的变化趋势分布情况基本一致,呈减少趋势的站点均相对较多,年平均极端降水量增减幅度较大,年平均极端降水日数变化在1 d·（10 a）^-1以内,平均极端降水强度和极端降水量对总降水量贡献减少趋势相对明显。

     

近20年中国气象灾害损失的初步分析

采用全国气象部门收集的县（区）域行政单元灾情普查资料,结合全国气象站点降水观测资料,分析了1984—2008年中国暴雨及其引发的洪涝灾害的时空演变特点及灾害损失情况,揭示了气候变化及人类活动双重作用下中国暴雨洪涝灾害变化趋势和演变特点,以及暴雨洪涝灾害影响的时空差异性。结果表明：近25 a来中国暴雨日数总体上稍有增加,暴雨强度和暴雨天数的空间分布均表现为南方高于北方,东部高于西部的特点,20世纪90年代中后期为中国暴雨高发期。研究时段内,中国暴雨洪涝灾害造成的直接经济损失呈增加趋势,但直接经济损失占当年GDP的比例则呈下降趋势,平均每年经济损失约为573亿元人民币,损失较高的地区主要集中在中国南方地区,县域年平均损失超过2 000万元的县约占15%,其中有34个县超过亿元。受灾人口呈增加趋势,但因灾死亡人口呈下降趋势;暴雨洪涝灾害对农作物受灾面积和绝收面积的影响均呈微弱上升趋势,年平均作物受灾面积近9.00×10⁶ hm²,作物绝收面积为1.27×10⁶ hm²。

     

Spatial modelling of air temperature and precipitation for Andorra (Pyrenees) from daily circulation patterns

Based on the daily sea level pressure (SLP) circulation catalogue obtained by Esteban, Martin-Vide and Mases, Int J Climatol 26:1501–1515, (2006) for Western Europe, high-resolution maps of daily maximum and minimum temperature, mean daily precipitation and daily precipitation probability have been obtained for Andorra (Pyrenees). The 20 daily-circulation patterns cover the period 1960–2001 and were generated using new approaches based on the rotated principal component analysis (PCA) and clustering technique. The final maps of Andorra associated with each circulation pattern have been constructed using altitude, latitude, continentality and solar radiation as multiple regression predictors (Ninyerola, Pons and Roure, Int J Climatol 20:1823–1841, 2000). The daily temperature and rainfall series used from Andorran, French and Catalan/Spanish weather stations have been checked for data quality. The results confirm the complexity of the spatial distribution of meteorological phenomena over mountainous areas such as in Andorra, and show the importance of the Mediterranean and Atlantic influence upon the climate of this country of the Pyrenees. On the other hand, different tests have been made showing that the classification results could improve the resulting interpolated climate maps by the use of the circulation-pattern frequencies.     

Evaluation of the weather generator CLIGEN with daily precipitation characteristics in Korea

The ability of the CLImate GENerator (CLIGEN) weather generator to reproduce daily precipitation characteristics for Korea was assessed on the basis of 55-year long historical daily precipitation records from eight weather stations (Seoul, Incheon, Daegu, Ulsan, Gwangju, Busan, Kangneung, and Jeonju) representing different parts of the Korean peninsula. The basic statistics of daily precipitation (mean, standard deviation, skewness of daily precipitation, number of rainy days, and the lengths of wet/dry period), probability distribution characteristics of daily precipitation (percentiles and maximum value), and the spatial covariance statistic generated by CLIGEN were compared with those derived from the observed weather series. Significance tests were conducted on the difference between the historical and generated statistics with the 1% significance level. The results show that CLIGEN simulates most of the daily precipitation characteristics satisfactorily with a tendency to slightly underestimate the mean and variability of daily precipitation. Especially, the number of rainy days is perfectly reproduced with mean relative error of 0.4% across all the stations. It is also found that the spatial covariance statistic from eight different stations is well reproduced by CLIGEN with respect to the leading EOF mode of summer season daily precipitation.     

Wintertime variability of Mediterranean precipitation and its links with large-scale circulation anomalies

A standard principal component analysis has been performed over the Mediterranean and over the larger European region on monthly precipitation anomalies for the winters between 1979 and 1995. The main centres of action of the associated EOFs are very similar for the two regions and the two sets of PCs are highly correlated with each other. Focusing on the Mediterranean region, the same analysis has been performed using 500?hPa geopotential height monthly anomalies taken from the operational NCEP analysis. Comparing the two sets of PCs associated with upper-air and surface data, a strong correlation has been found suggesting the presence of a two-way link between regional precipitation patterns and large-scale circulation anomalies. For both fields, the largest fraction of variance is explained by the North Atlantic Oscillation, while smaller but still substantial fractions are explained by other known patterns of large-scale variability such as the Eastern Atlantic pattern and the Euro-Atlantic blocking. No detectable connection has been found between Mediterranean precipitation patterns and El Niño SST anomalies during winter. With respect to temporal variability, significant trends have been found over most European areas during the winters considered. The associated pattern is characterised by a substantial increase of precipitation over western Scandinavia and a general decrease over southern Europe. This result is confirmed by analysing data from stations located in northern Italy.     

1960—2016年中国北方半干旱区盛夏降水时空变化及其水汽输送特征分析

基于气象台站降水观测资料,本文分析了1960—2016年半干旱区盛夏（7、8月）降水量时空变化特征,探讨了典型降水量时空分布型与大气环流及水汽输送的关系。结果表明,1960—2016年半干旱区7月和8月降水量的主导空间模态均可归纳为“区域一致型”和“区内反向型”。“区域一致型”时间序列显示1960—2016年7、8月降水量均呈减少趋势,但8月减少趋势更明显。这一时间序列与大气环流及水汽通量输送之间相关性分析显示,欧亚遥相关以及中纬度西风气流与7月降水量变化密切相关;而西太平洋副热带高压是影响半干旱区8月降水量变化的主要原因。相较而言,“区内反向型”年际变率较小但年代际变化明显,当北方半干旱区受反气旋性环流控制时,易形成北方半干旱区西部地区降水偏多而东部地区偏少的格局。     

Extreme subsidence in the Agulhas-Benguela air mass transition

Analysis of three-dimensional wind profiles recorded by an acoustic sounder near Cape Town has indicated that extreme subsidence (-35 cm s^-1) is a mean feature throughout the atmospheric boundary layer (50–1000m) during summertime southerly winds. Over the SW Cape coast, the atmospheric subsidence translates into a N-S gradient of the mean summer water deficit (-20 to -32 cm month^-1). The rapid drying out of the air mass along a northward trajectory is linked to a number of factors including synoptic-scale divergence of the surface wind and the effects of the local orography which produce a hydraulic jump of the southerly wind. The along-coast reduction in sea surface temperature provides a major constraint on the height of the moist marine layer. As the depth of the marine air mass shrinks, its potential for inland penetration becomes limited. In addition, dry air is entrained towards the surface as evidenced by aerial survey data. A model is formulated which indicates the importance of the surface heat fluxes in reducing the depth of the Agulhas air mass as it passes northward over the SW tip of Africa during summer.     

Improvement of daily precipitation estimations using PRISM with inverse-distance weighting

Improved daily precipitation estimations were attempted using the parameter-elevation regressions on a parameter-elevation regression on independent slopes model (PRISM) with inverse-distance weighting (IDW) and a precipitation-masking algorithm for precipitation areas. The PRISM (PRISM_ORG) suffers two overestimation problems when the daily precipitation is estimated: overestimation of the precipitation intensity in mountainous regions and overestimation of the local precipitation areas. In order to solve the problem of overestimating the precipitation intensity, we used the IDW technique that employs the same input stations as those used in the PRISM regression (PRISM_IDW). A precipitation-masking algorithm that selectively masks the precipitation estimation grid points was additionally applied to the PRISM_IDW results (PRISM_MSK). For 6 months from March to August 2012, daily precipitation data were produced in a horizontal resolution of 1 km based on the above two experiments and PRISM_ORG. Afterwards, each experiment was evaluated for improvements. The monthly root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of PRISM_IDW and PRISM_MSK were reduced by 0.83 mm/day and 0.86 mm/day, respectively, compared to PRISM_ORG.     

北京逐日气温和降水量的长程变化特征

无标度性广泛存在于自然界系统包括气候系统中,其特征之一是可观测量存在幂函数关系,它揭示了气候系统的复杂性.为探索气候可预测性的客观基础,介绍了去趋势涨落分析(DFA)方法,并应用其对北京2003年逐日观测资料序列进行了分析.结果表明,北京日平均气温和降水量均可划分为多个标度不变区域.在特定的标度域内,它们都表现出正长程相关的性质,为制作这些量的短期气候预测提供了理论基础.     

Mechanisms and reliability of future projected changes in daily precipitation

We isolate the contribution of warming, other large-scale changes and soil moisture decline and feedbacks in driving future projected changes in daily precipitation across Europe. Our confidence in each of these mechanisms differs, so this analysis then allows us to determine an overall confidence (or reliability) in the projected changes. In winter, increases in extreme precipitation over Europe as a whole are judged to be reliable, dominated by increased atmospheric moisture with warming. At scales less than about 2,000 km changing circulation patterns could enhance or offset this increase. Additionally, over the Scandinavian mountains warming-induced circulation changes do offset the effect of increased moisture and the overall change is unreliable. In summer, increases in extreme precipitation over northern Scandinavia and decreases over the Mediterranean are reliable in the absence of considerable circulation change. Over central Europe, an increase in the proportion of summer rainfall falling as extreme events is reliable.     

Extreme midlatitude cyclones and their implications for precipitation and wind speed extremes in simulations of the Maunder Minimum versus present day conditions

Extreme midlatitude cyclone characteristics, precipitation, wind speed events, their inter-relationships, and the connection to large-scale atmospheric patterns are investigated in simulations of a prolonged cold period, known as the Maunder Minimum from 1640 to 1715 and compared with today. An ensemble of six simulations for the Maunder Minimum as well as a control simulation for perpetual 1990 conditions are carried out with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, i.e., the Climate Community System Model (CCSM). The comparison of the simulations shows that in a climate state colder than today the occurrence of cyclones, the extreme events of precipitation and wind speed shift southward in all seasons in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. The extremes of cyclone intensity increases significantly in winter in almost all regions, which is related to a stronger meridional temperature gradient and an increase in lower tropospheric baroclinicity. Extremes of cyclone intensity in subregions of the North Atlantic are related to extremes in precipitation and in wind speed during winter. Moreover, extremes of cyclone intensity are also connected to distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns for the different subregions, but these relationships vanish during summer. Analyzing the mean 1,000 hPa geopotential height change of the Maunder Minimum simulations compared with the control simulation, we find a similar pattern as the correlation pattern with the cyclone intensity index of the southern Europe cyclones. This illustrates that changes in the atmospheric high-frequency, i.e., the simulated southward shift of cyclones in the North Atlantic and the related increase of extreme precipitation and wind speed in particular in the Mediterranean in winter, are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation changes.     

Interannual to decadal variations of precipitation and daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures in southern Brazil

The interannual to decadal variability of precipitation and daily maximum and daily minimum temperature (TMAX and TMIN) in southern Brazil for the 1913–2006 period is investigated using indices for these variables. Relations of these indices and the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Niño 3.4 index) and southwestern subtropical Atlantic (SSA index) are also investigated. Analyses are based on the Morlet wavelet transform. The interannual precipitation variability during the 1913–2006 period is mostly due to the high variances that occurred in specific sub-periods. The TMAX and TMIN indices also show significant interannual variability. The coherency and phase difference analyses of the precipitation index and the SST indices show higher coherency with the Niño 3.4 than with the SSA index. On the other hand, examining the coherencies and phase difference between the temperature indices and the SST indices, weaker coherencies with the Niño 3.4 index than with the SSA index are noted. These differences are discussed in the context of previous results. The new results here, with possible application for climate monitoring tasks, refer to the spectral differences between TMIN and TMAX.     

Decreasing precipitation occurs in daily extreme precipitation intervals across China in observations and model simulations

Extreme precipitation response to increasing temperature includes not only changes of frequency and intensity, but also changes of extreme precipitation interval (EPIV) and the precipitation during the neighboring daily extreme precipitations interval (EPIP). These changes have not been fully evaluated yet in observations or climate model simulations although they are very useful to understand variations of extreme precipitation. We used daily precipitation data from 669 meteorological stations during the past five decades across China and projections of 19 general circulation models from CMIP5 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios to investigate variations of EPIV and EPIP. We found the national average annual EPIV increased across China during the last five decades, while annual EPIP significantly decreased. The decreases mainly occurred in southwest China, east China, and southeast China. At national and regional scales, the average annual EPIV and EPIP showed greater decreases under the RCP8.5 scenario than those under the RCP4.5 scenario from 2006 to 2100. Annual EPIP showed a stronger correlation with extreme precipitation intensity than EPIV. The national average annual EPIP had a significant positive correlation with the Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index. The abnormal geopotential heights over western Mongolia and the western Pacific at 500 hpa as well as the abnormal SSTs in Japan Sea and the western of Pacific in rainy seasons would result in abnormal annual EPIVs and EPIPs in China. This study may provide references for flooding prediction, water resources management, and disaster prevention and mitigation.