Modeling studies of impacts from the Guinea Highlands in relation to tropical cyclogenesis along the West African coast

Numerical simulations of three separate events of tropical cyclogenesis (TC-genesis) off the West African coast between the years of 2006 and 2008 were performed. The purpose of this study was to investigate the processes that take place during the transition of an African easterly wave (AEW) and any associated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) as they progress from continental West Africa into the maritime environment of the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Three tropical cyclones that were associated with AEWs and related MCSs over continental West Africa that progressed off the coast, later achieving at least tropical storm (TS) strength, were selected to be investigated. The three tropical cyclones were: TS Debby (2006), Hurricane Helene (2006), and TS Josephine (2008). The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was utilized to conduct numerical model simulations beginning 72?h prior to each system’s AEW being classified as a tropical depression (TD). Results demonstrated that the model was able to recapture the evolution of each MCS in association with AEWs during all three events. The sensitivity experiments of the impact of topography (i.e., Guinea Highlands) suggested that the elevation of the Guinea Highlands plays a significant role in relation to TC-genesis, even though the highest peaks of the Guinea Highlands are only approximately 1,300?m. Simulation results supported that topographical blocking and northwest deflection of strong southwest winds from the Atlantic played an important role in the enhancement of low-level cyclonic circulation. Without the presence of the Highlands, wind speeds associated with each circulation by simulation’s end were either weaker or the simulation failed to generate a circulation completely. As the MCSs developed along the coast, they became phase locked in the downstream flow of an AEW as it exited the West African coast. The MCS in each event acted as a catalyst for TC-genesis with the associated AEW. Without the Guinea Highlands, the MCS features were either weakened or failed to develop, thus hindering TC-genesis for these three cases.     

Diurnal Variation of MCSs over Asia and the Western Pacific Region

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are severe disaster-producing weather systems. Radar data and infrared satellite image are useful tools in MCS surveillance. The previous method of MCS census is to look through the printed infrared imagery manually. This method is not only subjective and inaccurate, but also inefficient. Different from previous studies, a new automatic MCS identification (AMI) method, which overcomes the above disadvantages, is used in the present study. The AMI method takes three steps: searching potential MCS profiles, tracking the MCS, and assessing the MCS, so as to capture MCSs from infrared satellite images. Finally, 47468 MCSs are identified over Asia and the western Pacific region during the warm seasons (May-October) from 1995 to 2008. From this database, the geographical distribution and diurnal variation of MCSs are analyzed. The results show that different types of MCSs have similar geographical distributions. Latitude is the main control factor for MCS distribution. MCSs are most frequent over the central Tibetan Plateau; meanwhile, this area also has the highest hail frequency according to previous studies. Further, it is found that the diurnal variation of MCSs has little to do with MCSs’ size or shape; MCSs in different areas have their own particular diurnal variation patterns. Based on the diurnal variation characteristics, MCSs are classified into four categories: the whole-day occurring MCSs in low latitude, the whole-day occurring MCSs in high latitude, the nocturnal MCSs, and the postmeridian MCSs. MCSs over most places of mainland China are postmeridian; but MCSs over the Sichuan basin and its vicinity are nocturnal. This conclusion is coincidental with the hail climatology of China.     

Modes of Mesoscale Convective System Organization During Meiyu Season over the Yangtze River Basin

Mesoscale convective systems （MCSs） are classified and investigated through a statistical analysis of composite radar reflectivity data and station observations during June and July 2010-2012. The number of linear-mode MCSs is slightly larger than the number of nonlinear-mode MCSs. Eight types of linear-mode MCSs are identified： trailing stratiform MCSs （TS）, leading stratiform MCSs （LS）, training line/adjoining stratiform MCSs （TL/AS）, back-building/quasi-stationary MCSs （BB）, parallel stratiform MCSs （PS）, bro- ken line MCSs （BL）, embedded line MCSs （EL）, and long line MCSs （LL）. Six of these types have been identified in previous studies, but EL and LL MCSs are described for the first time by this study. TS, LS, PS, and BL MCSs are all moving systems, while TL/AS, BB, EL, and LL MCSs are quasi-stationary. The average duration of linear-mode MCSs is more than 7 h. TL/AS and TS MCSs typically have the longest durations. Linear-mode MCSs often develop close to the Yangtze River, especially over low-lying areas and river valleys. The diurnal cycle of MCS initiation over the Yangtze River valley contains multiple peaks. The vertical distribution of environmental wind is decomposed into storm-relative perpendicular and parallel wind components. The environmental wind field is a key factor in determining the organizational mode of a linear-mode MCS.     

亚洲季风区不同形态中尺度对流系统的特征分析

利用16 a的TRMM卫星观测资料,分析了亚洲季风区准圆状、线状和拉长状中尺度对流系统(MCSs)的空间分布、对流属性及其区域变化特征。结果表明:拉长状MCSs的数量最多,准圆状的其次而线状的最少。自西向东,准圆状(线状)MCSs数量占各区域MCSs总数的比例逐渐减小(增加),线状MCSs在副热带和洋面地区的产生几率相比更大。MCSs的发生频次呈现以暖季(5—9月)为峰值的单峰分布,准圆状和拉长状MCSs的暖季峰值比线状MCSs的大。MCSs主要发生在下午—傍晚时段,但线状MCSs在午夜—凌晨出现的概率比其它两种大。3种类型MCSs的整体强度基本表现为副热带地区弱于近热带地区,但不同类型MCSs的强度差异在各区域不尽相同,如中国中东部地区和西北太平洋地区的准圆状MCSs强度最强,但东海及其以东洋面的线状MCSs强度最强。     

中尺度对流系统中的湿中性层结结构特征

基于CloudSat卫星获得的高分辨率中尺度对流系统垂直剖面结构,结合大气参量相对湿度和相当位温的诊断分析,在低纬度、中高纬度地区、陆地或海洋以及不同天气形势下,发现了多个非常典型的中尺度对流系统(MCS)内部具有湿中性层结特征的个例.进一步利用静止卫星普查到的东亚地区MCS分布情况,结合NCEP再分析资料诊断MCS重心位置处大气状态廓线,利用大量的例子从统计的角度揭示了湿中性层结结构特征在MCS中存在的普遍性,并且从动力学和热力学的角度探讨了湿中性层结结构在MCS发生和发展中所起到的作用.     

季风槽环境中暴雨中尺度对流系统的分析与数值预报试验

应用地面降水观测资料、卫星云图、雷达回波以及NCEP再分析资料,对华南沿海受季风槽影响下发生的一次持续性暴雨的中尺度对流系统（MCS）进行分析,并探讨采用数值模式对中尺度对流系统降水进行预报的可能性。分析表明,暴雨由多个相继发展的中尺度对流系统造成。在相似环境中,不同中尺度对流系统发展形态和水平尺度有较大差异,最大可组织发展成α中尺度对流复合体（MCC）,但一般为β中尺度线状或带状对流系统。对其中发展形态分别表现为椭圆形中尺度对流复合体（MCS-2）和带状β中尺度对流系统（MCS-4）的对比分析发现,对流的起始发展均发生在夜间,与季风槽中低空急流的南风脉动有良好对应关系。基于临近探空资料的诊断发现,被认为对中尺度对流系统组织发展有指示作用的关键物理量如对流有效位能（CAPE）和风垂直切变难以区分不同中尺度对流系统的发展形态和趋势,探空资料的代表性将影响诸如“配料法”等暴雨客观预报方法的建立和应用。利用华南区域中心GRAPES（GRAPES_GZ）数值模式对两个中尺度对流系统进行的模拟预报结果表明,采用数值模式对中尺度对流系统降水进行显式预报已成为可能。比较而言,3 km水平分辨率模式可以更好地预报出暴雨的发生,但结果对是否调用对流参数化（CP）方案敏感。尽管不依靠对流参数化方案模式能够较好地预报出中尺度对流系统初始降水的发生,但会过度预报发展成熟后的降水。模式中如何描述中尺度对流系统对流的组织发展机制、如何处理对流参数化方案的“灰色区分辨率”问题需要仔细考虑。      

STUDY ON CLOUD CLASSIFICATIONS BY USING AVHRR,GMS-5 AND TERRA/MODIS SATELLITE DATA*

This paper presents the automated pixel-scale neural network classification methods being developed at National Satellite Meteorological Center(NSMC) of China to classify clouds by using NOAA/AVHRR and GMS-5 satellite imageries.By using Terra satellite MODIS imageries,an automated pixel-scale threshold technique has been developed to detect and classify clouds.The study focuses on applications of these cloud classification techniques to the Huaihe River and the Changjiang(Yangtze) River drainage basin.The different types of clouds show more clearly on this cloud classification image than single band image.The results of the cloud classifications are the basis of studying cloud amount,cloud top height and cloud top pressure.Cloud mask method sare widely used in SST,LST,and TPW retrieval schemes.Some case studies about cloud mask and cloud classification in satellite imageries,which are related with the study of Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment(GEWEX) in the Huaihe River and the Changjiang River drainage basin are illustrated.     

STUDY ON CLOUD CLASSIFICATIONS BY USING AVHRR,GMS-5 AND TERRA/MODIS SATELLITE DATA

This paper presents the automated pixel-scale neural network classification methods beingdeveloped at National Satellite Meteorological Center(NSMC)of China to classify clouds by usingNOAA/AVHRR and GMS-5 satellite imageries.By using Terra satellite MODIS imageries,anautomated pixel-scale threshold technique has been developed to detect and classify clouds.Thestudy focuses on applications of these cloud classification techniques to the Huaihe River and theChangjiang(Yangtze)River drainage basin.The different types of clouds show more clearly onthis cloud classification image than single band image.The results of the cloud classifications arethe basis of studying cloud amount,cloud top height and cloud top pressure.Cloud mask methodsare widely used in SST,LST,and TPW retrieval schemes.Some case studies about cloud maskand cloud classification in satellite imageries,which are related with the study of Global Energyand Water Cycle Experiment(GEWEX)in the Huaihe River and the Changjiang River drainagebasin are illustrated.     

STATISTIC CHARACTERISTICS OF MCSS OVER ASIA AND WESTERN PACIFIC REGION

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are severe disaster-producing weather systems. Previous attempts of MCS census are made by examining infrared satellite imageries artificially, with subjectivity involved in the process unavoidably. This method is also inefficient and time-consuming. The disadvantages make it impossible to do MCS census over Asia and western Pacific region (AWPR) with an extended span of time, which is not favorable for gaining a deeper insight into these systems. In this paper, a fire-new automatic MCS identification (AMI) method is used to capture four categories of MCSs with different sizes and shapes from numerical satellite infrared data. 47,468 MCSs are identified over Asia and western Pacific region during the warm season (May to October) from 1995 to 2008. Based on this database, MCS characteristics such as shape, size, duration, velocity, geographical distribution, intermonthly variation, and lifecycle are studied. Results indicate that the number of linear MCSs is 2.5 times that of circular MCSs. The former is of a larger size while the latter is of a longer duration. The 500 hPa steering flow plays an important role in the MCS movement. MCSs tend to move faster after they reach the maximum extent. Four categories of MCS have similar characteristics of geographical distribution and intermonthly variation. Basically, MCSs are zonally distributed, with three zones weakening from south to north. The intermonthly variation of MCSs is related to the seasonal adjustment of the large-scale circulation. As to the MCSs over China, they have different lifecycle characteristics over different areas. MCSs over plateaus and hill areas, with only one peak in their lifecycle curves, tend to form in the afternoon, mature at nightfall, and dissipate at night. On the other hand, MCSs over plains, which have several peaks in their lifecycle curves, may form either in the afternoon or at night, whereas MCSs over the oceans tend to form at midnight. Affected by the sea-land breeze circulation, MCSs over coastal areas of Guangdong and Guangxi always come into being at about 1500 or 1600 (local time), while MCSs over the Sichuan Basin, affected by the mountain-valley breeze circulation, generally initiate nocturnally.     

Delineation of Mesoscale Features of Ocean on Satellite IR Image

An ICSED (Improved Cluster Shade Edge-Detection) algorithm and a series of post-processing technique are discussed for automatic delineation of mesoscale structure of the ocean on digital IR images. The popular derivative-based edge operators are shown to be too sensitive to edge fine-structure and to weak gradients. The new edge-detection algorithm is ICSED (Improved Cluster Shade Edge-detection) method and it is found to be an excel lent edge detector that exhibits the characteristic of fine-structure rejection while retaining edge sharpness. This char acteristic is highly desirable for analyzing oceanographic satellite images. A sorting technique for separating clouds or land well from ocean at both day and night is described in order to obtain high quality mesoscale features on the IR image This procedure is evaluated on an AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) image with Kuroshio. Results and analyses show that the mesoscale features can be well identified by using ICSED algorithm.     

长江下游梅雨期低涡统计分析

应用1998—2005年长江下游地区常规观测资料,结合卫星云图和中尺度数值模拟结果,对该时段发生在长江下游的局地生成中尺度低涡活动进行统计,并对低涡生成大尺度环境场及物理量参数进行合成诊断分析,为长江中下游地区梅雨期暴雨预报提供实际参考。结果表明:长江下游地区中尺度低涡主要形成于大别山山脉及山脉两侧的高能高湿的环境条件中,槽前的正涡度平流输送是低涡形成的必要条件之一。长江下游地区中尺度低涡一般存在于700 hPa以下的对流层低层,水平尺度普遍在400 km之内,形成后沿东北方向移动,在山东北部沿海入海,或沿东南方向移动在江苏南部到浙江北部沿海入海,在陆地上的生命期一般小于48 h,但70%以上的低涡都在长江下游地区触发中尺度对流系统发展而产生暴雨。暴雨区主要发生在低涡的南侧或东南侧,高低层急流配置、低层水汽输送和地形条件对低涡暴雨的触发具有重要作用。     

利用FY-2E红外和水汽波段对强对流云团的识别和演变研究

使用FY-2E静止气象卫星的红外1(10.3~11.3μm)和水汽波段(6.3~7.6μm)时序图像,对强对流云进行识别和短时预测。亮温阈值法是将强对流云和其他高云区分开的常用方法,但是合适的亮温阈值是随着时间和空间而变化的,过高的阈值会将许多卷云包括进来,太低的阈值会排除掉云顶发展还不是很高的强对流云。水汽波段所在的位置是水汽的一个强吸收带,而高度在400 h Pa上下的大气层是水汽波段的一个强吸收层,大气在垂直方向上的对水汽波段辐射吸收的分布模式使得卫星接收到的水汽波段辐射主要来自于400 h Pa以上的大气中高层,而卫星接收到的红外波段辐射主要来自于大气中低层,两个波段间辐射来源的差异使得不同光学厚度的高云的辐射观测值在红外—水汽光谱空间中的分布具有明显差别,并且这种差异具有时空的稳定性。本文将一定范围内的云团的象元测值在红外—水汽光谱空间中的分布的拟合直线斜率作为强对流云识别的依据,结果表明相对于亮温阈值法,本文的识别方法不仅能够较好地区别卷云和强对流云,同时也能更有效地识别未达到旺盛阶段的对流云。在对强对流云进行识别后,根据相邻时间段的卫星图像,利用交叉相关法反演得到强对流云团顶部的位移矢量场,并根据后向轨迹法对强对流云团位置形状进行短时预测,预报结果在短时间内(0~1 h)较好,并且对面积较大的云团的预报效果要优于较小的对流云团。此外文中还利用逐半小时的云顶黑体温度(Temperature of Black Body,TBB)资料分析了云顶亮温的分布变化,得到了整个强对流过程的演变特征。     

华南前汛期MCS的活动特征及组织发展形式

利用卫星云图Tbb资料、常规观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,按照Jirak对中尺度对流系统(MCS)的分类方法,将华南MCS分为MCC(中尺度对流复合体)、PECS(线状或长条状MCS)、MβCCS和MβECS(即β尺度的MCC和β尺度的PECS)4种类型,对华南前汛期MCS的时空变化特征、发生发展的组织形式和天气学背景进行了分析。结果表明:PECS是华南地区MCS的主要发展形式。4—6月MCS的发生个数逐月增多。MCS的日变化呈单峰型,主要集中于下午到上半夜形成,傍晚到半夜之间发展成熟。但具体到不同的4种类型,其日变化特征有一定差异。MCS活动分布特征与地形没有明显对应关系,全区都可有PECS发生。MCS主要以东移为主,其次的移动方向4种不同类型分别略有不同。MCS的发生发展有3种主要天气形势:500 hPa槽前西南风场型、850 hPa切变线南侧的西南风场型和地面低槽配合的Ⅰ型;500 hPa西北风场型、850 hPa切变线型和地面低槽配合的Ⅱ型;500 hPa西风槽过境型、850 hPa切变线南侧的西南风场型和地面低槽配合的Ⅲ型。孤立发展和合并增长是华南MCS的主要组织发展形式。     

南海夏季风对强热带风暴Bilis(0604)引发暴雨的影响

Bilis(0604)是一个登陆后长久维持并造成了特大暴雨的强热带风暴.通过对常规观测资料、雷达资料和红外卫星云图的分析,发现暴雨过程中不断有中尺度对流系统(MCSs)产生和发展,这些MCSs是造成强暴雨的主要中尺度系统.在此基础上用中尺度模式MM5对Bilis登陆后66 h的过程进行了数值模拟,模拟的雨带和雨量与实况较符合.利用模拟结果,对MCSs的发展过程和特征作了分析,发现Bilis的低压环流和南海夏季风在华南一带交汇,使得华南一带多中尺度涡旋、辐合中心和中尺度辐合线发展,这些系统为中尺度对流系统的生成和维持提供了有利的环境.敏感性试验表明,南海夏季风输送暖湿气流为暴雨区补充不稳定能量和水汽,对暴雨的产生具有十分重要的作用.     

基于静止卫星红外云图的MCS普查研究进展及标准修订

基于静止卫星红外云图的MCS普查标准不统一不利于各种MCS普查结果的对比分析, 该文在总结MCS普查研究进展的基础上, 依据Orlanski尺度分类标准对MβCS普查的最小尺度标准作了修订, 即修订为TBB≤-32 ℃的连续冷云区直径≥20 km。根据马禹等的MβCS普查标准和该文修订的MβCS普查标准, 利用GOES-9卫星红外云图普查了2003年6月19日—7月22日淮河大水期间的MCS, 结果发现共有10个MαCS和24个MβCS, 并对24个MβCS作了普查标准修订前后的统计结果对比, 发现新的普查标准比根据马禹等的MβCS普查标准获得的结果多7个MβCS, 并且这7个MβCS中有6个都引起强降水, 因此这种对比分析结果表明:新MβCS普查标准对揭示淮河大水和MCS的关系更具合理性。此外, 还分析了3个因MβCS而引起局地强降水的典型个例, 这些MβCS的直径尺度只有几十至一百多公里, 不符合马禹等的MβCS普查标准。对这3个MβCS分析结果表明:该文新MβCS普查标准有助于对产生剧烈天气的MCS的普查研究和预报。     

青藏高原与周边地区近四十年区域夏季地表气温变化趋势的异同及归因分析

欧亚大陆夏季地表气温在近四十年有显著的升温趋势,本文基于ERA5再分析数据研究了1979～2019年间欧亚大陆不同区域的夏季地表气温的变化特征,并利用气候反馈响应分析方法揭示了各区域变暖原因的异同。作为全球海拔最高的大地形,青藏高原在过去四十年经历了显著的增温过程。青藏高原周边相对低海拔的地区（如北非—南欧地区、蒙古地区、东北亚地区）同样表现出明显的变暖特征,而高原南侧的南亚地区的地表气温却变化不明显。青藏高原夏季积雪融化引起的地表反照率减小使得更多短波辐射到达地表,放大高原地表增暖。北非—南欧地区增暖则主要源于大气气溶胶含量减少造成的入射短波辐射增加。同时,大气温度升高导致的向下长波辐射增强对北非—南欧地区以及蒙古地区的增暖都有显著贡献。此外,东北亚地区云的减少是造成其地表增暖最主要的过程,而南亚地区则是水汽增加和感热通量减少造成的增温与云和气溶胶增加造成的降温相抵消,因而温度变化幅度不大。     

近16年暖季青藏高原东部两类中尺度对流系统（MCS）的统计特征

利用日本高知大学提供的逐小时分辨率静止卫星云顶黑体亮温（TBB）资料,使用模式匹配算法对2000～2016年（2005年除外）暖季（5～9月）青藏高原东部的两类中尺度对流系统（MCS）进行了识别和追踪,并利用人工验证订正了结果。基于此,利用NOAA的CMORPH（Climate Prediction Center Morphing）降水资料和NCEP的CFSR（Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）再分析资料对高原东部两类MCS进行了统计和对比研究。研究发现,7月和8月是高原东部MCS生成最活跃的季节,然而,此两个月能够东移出高原MCS的比例最小;5月虽然MCS生成数最少,但是移出率高达近40%。对比表明,能够东移出高原的MCS（V-MCS）比不能移出的MCS（N-MCS）生命史更长,触发更早,短生命史个例占比更低。暖季各个月份,相比于N-MCS,V-MCS的对流更旺盛且发展更快,然而,由于其发生频数远低于N-MCS,总体而言,V-MCS对高原东部的降水贡献率仅为15%左右,是N-MCS相应数值的一半左右。高原东部两类MCS的环流特征差异显著,有利于V-MCS发生、维持和东移的因子主要位于对流层中低层（西风带短波槽、西风引导气流、低层风场切变）,而在对流层高层,N-MCS拥有更好的高空辐散条件（其对应的南亚高压更强）。     

Springtime cloud properties in the Taiwan Strait: synoptic controls and local processes

This paper examines the springtime cloud properties in the Taiwan Strait (TS), with emphases on their dependence on synoptic controls and local processes, using a suite of in situ and remote sensing observations. Cloud properties in the TS are inferred from a combination of MODIS and in situ observations and further classified into two synoptic conditions: continental cold air surge and frontal system. The study reveals a predominance of synoptic-scale controls in regulating the cloud properties in the TS. The sensitivity of clouds to the local thermodynamic mechanisms as well as the underlying surface conditions is fundamentally dependent on synoptic-scale flow patterns. The springtime clouds over the TS are commonly a mixture of stratocumulus and alto clouds. More precisely, there is a preponderance of stratocumulus over the strait. A preferential occupancy of stratiform alto clouds is recognized during cold air surge, whereas vertical development of cloud layers (mostly the stratocumulus) is commonly observed with frontal passage. The most distinct difference between the local clouds formation associated with the two synoptic conditions is the suppression of very low cloud and fog along with cold air surge. Stratus clouds and fog are present within the northward prefrontal airflow from warmer to colder water sites, along with an increase in stability relating to lower altitudes of boundary layer clouds. Although the rainfall occurrences are about the same for both synoptic conditions, the frontal rain amounts are larger on average.     

利用卫星图像分析南京信息工程大学校园变化特征

本文主要目的是利用卫星图像资料分析南京信息工程大学（Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,NUIST）建校之初至今校园的变化特征.共分析了1964年11月至1970年12月之间的5幅无云的美国侦察卫星图像（1995年解密）,地理配准后图像的位置精度为4.8至7.8 m,图像中的建筑物、道路和水体都清晰可见.通过对比这些黑白的侦察卫星图像与2006—2018年的Google Earth彩色图像,发现现在校园面积远远大于旧校园;旧图像里中苑老操场跑道长度为298 m,2006年Google Earth图像中为406.5 m,操场中心点向东移动了9 m,向南移动了47 m.侦察卫星图像和Google Earth图像都是以统一坐标系做地理位置校正,相关图像见附件.