哈尔滨市冬季烟幕天气诊断分析

利用哈尔滨1960～2005年烟幕出现次数进行气候分析,找出了烟幕冬季的月、年变化规律,统计发现哈尔滨市烟幕日主要出现在冬季(11、12、1、2)4个月,并通过对哈尔滨市2000～2005年6a烟幕资料详细分析,结合烟幕发生时的天气特征,以及烟幕与各项天气要素之间的关系,找出烟幕的气象预报着眼点。烟幕日多产生在高压系统控制下,冬季烟尘排放量多、风速较小、大气层结稳定(常有逆温层存在)是多烟幕的主要原因。     

济南烟幕统计及其天气特征分析

利用济南１９６１～１９９１年的气象资料，从气候学的角度，统计分析了济南烟幕日形成的一些特征规律。统计结果发现，济南市烟幕日年均２９０天以上，强烟幕日年均达２３．２天，其中冬季烟幕日最多。烟幕日多产生在高压天气系统控制下。烟尘排放量多，大气层结较稳定（常有逆湿层存在）是多烟幕的主要原因；另外，济南市所处的特定地形环境也是多烟幕的原因之一。     

铜陵市区的烟幕分析及其预测

作者应用气象资料分析烟幕的发生规律，并应用灰色理论对烟幕进行预测。     

对“烟幕与轻雾能否同时记载”的看法

《气象》今年第6期上刊登了谈刚毅“烟幕与轻雾能否同时记载”一文,我们对该文论点有不同的看法。 在城市中,烟幕和轻雾是不能截然分开的。轻雾中可能有烟的成分,烟幕中也可能有轻雾的成分。从这     

北京春季一次持续浮尘和污染天气过程分析

2001年4月底5月初北京地区出现了一次以浮尘天气为主，夹杂轻雾、雷阵雨、烟幕等复杂天气过程的持续重污染事件，给北京地区的生产和生活带来了较大的影响。文章主要从天气形势上分析了北京浮尘天气形成的原因和持续空气污染的气象条件。结果表明，此次过程是由于高空冷涡发展东移，蒙古气旋发展和地面冷锋移动经过蒙古国南部和华北北部等干燥、疏松的地表形成扬沙、沙尘暴，大量的细小沙尘粒子随高空偏西气流携带而至北京，形成浮尘天气。本地低空处于弱辐合区，层结稳定，风速小、逆温频繁，这些均不利于沙尘粒子和本地污染物的扩散，导致连续可吸入颗粒物重污染的形成。     

新疆和田地区烟幕变化特征及成因分析

运用和田地区气象、社会统计、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,综合应用气候趋势、小波、突变、合成方法分析了1960—2010年和田地区烟幕天气的变化趋势、周期及突变特征,揭示了影响烟幕天气多发的气候及社会成因,结果发现:(1)和田地区烟幕天气呈现出递增(15.4 d/10a)的趋势,多年平均日数66 d,其代表站——和田高达123 d,烟幕天气在20世纪60年代最少、90年代增至最高峰,2000—2010年大幅减少,年烟幕日数呈单峰型,峰值在10月—次年3月的冬半年,日烟幕频数呈双峰型,峰值在20—01时和早上09—12时;(2)年烟幕日数具有稳定的准17 a振荡周期,1982年为显著突变增加年、2005年为显著突变减少年;(3)影响和田地区烟幕天气多寡的主因是人口快速增长下,冬半年长时间向空中大量排放烟尘,加之冬半年受高空浅暖高压脊和地面塔里木盆地低气压环流的控制,气层稳定、逆温易发且频率高,风速较小,烟尘不易扩散。     

辨认轻雾、烟幕和霾的标准

《地面气象观测规范》对轻雾、烟幕和霾已有明确的定义 ,可是有些观测员对这些现象的定义理解并不准确 ,一般有个习惯性认识 :轻雾是由微小水滴等构成的 ,出现轻雾时湿度一定要大 ;而烟幕和霾是干物质构成的 ,出现时湿度要小。于是就只以湿度大小作为辨别轻雾与霾或烟幕的标准。有的站为了避免争议 ,甚至规定了一个标准 :相对湿度大于 70 %时记轻雾 ;当已记录有轻雾 ,在湿度降到 70 %以下且水平能见度小于 10 .0ｋｍ时 ,则转记为烟幕或霾。轻雾、烟幕和霾这 3种天气现象的辨认 ,应根据成因、颜色及天气条件、较易出现的时间、现象的连续等综…     

湿度大小不是区别轻雾和烟幕的唯一依据

湿度大小不是区别轻雾和烟幕的唯一依据于红莲目前，大多数观测员是用１．０～１０．０ｋｍ能见度来确定轻雾和烟幕这两种天气现象的。也有人单纯用湿度作为指标确定轻雾和烟幕。在测报实践中，常遇到在轻雾消失的过程中，因为雾滴蒸发需要一段时间，所以尽管相对湿度已经...     

1961年-2012年山西雾霾的时空变化特征及成因分析

利用1961年-2012年山西逐日天气现象、能见度、相对湿度和日平均气温资料,采用Kendall-tau方法和相关分析法研究山西雾霾日数的时空变化特征及成因。结果表明：雾多发区在中南部,北部雾日较少。霾、烟幕日数高值区出现在以大同、太原、临汾为中心线的带状区域。季节分布来看,轻雾、雾日数峰值出现在8、9月份,谷值在5月份出现;霾和烟幕日数的峰值出现在12、1月份,谷值在8、9月份出现。近50余年以来,山西雾霾日数呈现增多趋势,雾日增加趋势较弱,60、70年代为增多趋势,进入21世纪则为减少趋势;轻雾和霾日数均为显著单调上升趋势;烟幕日数也为显著增多趋势,但表现为抛物线型,90年代后期以前为增多,之后转为下降趋势。山西霾和烟幕日数与E1Nino事件有很好的对应关系,E1Nino事件发生年往往霾和烟幕日数较多,赤道中东太平洋的海温异常通过海气相互作用,引起东亚地区上空的大气环流异常,形成利于霾和烟幕出现的天气条件。山西冬季气温偏高往往导致霾和烟幕天气的增多,气候变暖对霾和烟幕天气的影响不容置疑。     

谈几种水汽凝结物及干质悬浮物的判别

位于城市环境的气象台站,如杭州市气象台,由于种种原因,大气透明度较差,以致使能见度经常小于10.0千米。此时,值班员为记何种天气现象而伤脑筋。现就轻雾、烟幕、霾、扬沙、浮尘等现象的判别问题,谈一点浅见,供讨论。轻雾(=)与烟幕(?):地面气象观测规范(以下简称规范)第五章§5.1天气现象的特征中指出:轻雾——“微小水滴或已湿的吸湿性质粒所构成的灰白色的稀薄雾幕”。烟幕——“大量的烟存在空气中”“城市、工矿区上空的烟幕呈黑色、灰色或褐色,浓时可以闻到烟味。”轻雾为气层稳定,空气较潮湿;烟幕为气团稳定,有逆温时利于形成。“大致出现时     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.