Earthquake forerunner as probable precursor — an example from north burma subduction zone

The Burmese Arc seismic activity is not uniform for its ∼ 1100 km length; only the Northern Burmese Arc (NBA) is intensely active. Six large earthquakes in the magnitude range 6.1–7.4 have originated from the NBA Benioff zone between 1954–2011, within an area of 200 × 300 km² where the Indian plate subducts eastward to depths beyond 200 km below the Burma plate. An analysis on seismogenesis of this interplate region suggests that while the subducting lithosphere is characterized by profuse seismicity, seismicity in the overriding plate is rather few. Large earthquakes occurring in the overriding plate are associated with the backarc Shan-Sagaing Fault (SSF) further east. The forecasting performance of the Benioff zone earthquakes in NBA as forerunner is analysed here by: (i) spatial earthquake clustering, (ii) seismic cycles and their temporal quiescence and (iii) the characteristic temporal b-value changes. Three such clusters (C1–C3) are identified from NBA Benioff Zones I & II that are capable of generating earthquakes in the magnitude ranges of 7.38 to 7.93. Seismic cycles evidenced for the Zone I displayed distinct quiescence (Q₁, Q₂ and Q₃) prior to the 6^th August 1988 (M 6.6) earthquake. Similar cycles were used to forecast an earthquake (Dasgupta et al. 2010) to come from the Zone I (cluster C1); which, actually struck on 4 February 2011 (M 6.3). The preparatory activity for an event has already been set in the Zone II and we speculate its occurrence as a large event (M > 6.0) possibly within the year 2012, somewhere close to cluster C3. Temporal analysis of b-value indicates a rise before an ensuing large earthquake.     

On the Bayesian analysis of the earthquake hazard in the North-East Indian peninsula

The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been used to estimate the seismic hazard in 12 seismogenic zones of the North-East Indian peninsula. The Bayesian approach has been used very efficiently to combine the prior information on seismicity obtained from geological data with historical observations in many seismogenic zones of the world. The basic parameters to obtain the prior estimate of seismicity are the seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude. These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical evaluations of seismicity associated with each zone. From the Bayesian analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences for North-East Indian peninsula, it is found that for T = 5 years, the probability of occurrences of magnitude (M _w = 5.0–5.5) is greater than 0.9 for all zones. For M _w = 6.0, four zones namely Z1 (Central Himalayas), Z5 (Indo-Burma border), Z7 (Burmese arc) and Z8 (Burma region) exhibit high probabilities. Lower probability is shown by some zones namely␣Z4, Z12, and rest of the zones Z2, Z3, Z6, Z9, Z10 and Z11 show moderate probabilities.     

缅甸与莫桑比克红宝石的元素含量及紫外可见光谱学特征对比研究

采用镜下观察、激光剥蚀电感耦合等离子体质谱、紫外-可见吸收光谱等观察测试方法,对缅甸和莫桑比克红宝石的常规宝石学、包裹体、化学元素含量及紫外光谱特征进行了系统的对比研究。结果表明,缅甸红宝石在紫外荧光灯下呈现较强的红色荧光,内部含有互为60°夹角定向排列的短针状金红石、"糖浆状"构造等特征包裹体,具有低Fe、高V、高Ga的微量元素特征,紫外区吸收截止边小于320 nm,且694 nm处的荧光较强。莫桑比克红宝石在紫外荧光灯下荧光较弱,内部可见双晶面、无序排列的金红石和角闪石晶体等特征包裹体,具有高Fe、低V、低Ga的微量元素特征,紫外区吸收截止边在350 nm附近。上述性质可用作区分缅甸和莫桑比克红宝石的标志性识别特征。     

Cross-border regional enlargement in Øresund

Cross-border regional enlargement entails complex dynamics. The integration process at the maritime border between Sweden and Denmark illustrates this. Physical infrastructure has been improved by national governments and intranational and supranational institutions have added to the instrumentation as a precondition for social interaction and integration. The outcome of these efforts is here tested under a hypothesis that in spite of this forceful cocktail of policy instruments, the cross-border regionalization process is at best a long-run phenomenon in the ?resund Region. The point of departure is the stepwise procedure for the formation of binational cities suggested in Ehlers (2001, GeoJournal 54: 21–32). Social interaction is identified as the pivotal factor in the present state of integration of the ?resund Region using Bucken-Knapp (2001, GeoJournal 54: 51–60). A benchmarking method is proposed for testing social interaction in the labour market, where cross-border dynamics are benchmarked against national dynamics. The cross-border regional enlargement process is still in its very infancy and a continued focus on policies to promote cross-border social interaction is required. The present governance without government approach to cross-border cooperation in the ?resund Region is in that respect challenged by a reform of the Danish geo-administrative system.     

The Indonesia-Malaysia-Singapore Growth Triangle: Sub-regional economic cooperation and integration

Regional economic cooperation is being re-considered in the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines and Brunei. The political leadership in each of the member countries appearsto have recognised that regional integration of their economies hold out better prospects for economic competitiveness and sustained growth. The diversity among the ASEAN states however, explains the mixed reaction to development schemes that have been premised on regional cooperation and economic integration. It is the paradox that while difference among the ASEAN countries account for some of the toughest competition faced by the region's newly industrialising economies, these differences have also been the reason behind integration and cooperation. This paper examines the growth triangle arrangement initiated by the government of Singapore and involving the Riau Islands in Indonesia and the state of Johor in the neighbouring country of Malaysia. The spatial and economic impact of Indonesia-Malaysia-Singapore Growth Triangle, as it is now officially called, is discussed. In spite of the addition of more growth triangles which have been identified following on this pioneering effort in the region, the discussion will highlight the limits to such cooperation at least, among the newly industrializing economies in the region.     

Double transformation at the eastern border of the EU: the case of the Euroregion pro Europa Viadrina

One of the major means to foster European integration is the establishment of border spanning regions (‘Euroregions’). This is particularly important on the Eastern borders of the EU, e.g. in Eastern Germany. There, however, a double transformation to post-socialist society is taking place, both inside and outside the EU. Tensions arise between objectives on local and higher political levels, intensified by totally different economic structures and access to EU funds on both sides of the border. This is particularly true for the case of the emerging Euroregion Viadrina. Problems in preserving old industrialised localities in East Germany (e.g. steel) and attempts to resurrect the urban fair place Frankfurt/Oder, clash with transition in agriculture and consumer industries and with new concepts in tourism development and environmental protection in the Polish border zone. In region building, political, economic and ideological goals compete with each other. Local initiatives and higher political governance may both support and hamper each other. The same holds true for the interdependence of cultural integration and economic development. The paper concludes that regional economic development can only be expected if, via the building of the Euroregion, the interplay of these factors leads to compromise and harmonization between the different parties involved. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Militarism and the environment in Guatemala

This paper examines how civil war in Guatemala created and destroyed community cohesion, which, in turn, influences land use practices in the frontier region of Ixcán today. The impact of civil war on the environment and land use in this region takes many forms. Some communities took refuge in Mexico. Other communities refused to take refuge in Mexico and also refused to submit to military rule. These communities of “people in resistance” formed highly cohesive units in order to evade military detection. The lessons of cooperation and the high levels of cohesion they developed during their years in hiding have carried over to their successful management of natural resources in post-conflict Guatemala. Return refugees accumulated higher levels of cohesion while in refuge because they often participated in workshops organized and funded by outside relief agencies. Higher levels of community cohesion have allowed return refugee communities to better organize and use their land in more sustainable ways. Other communities did not flee and thus endured military rule. They were forced out of their dispersed land parcels into concentrated model villages. Concentration of community members forced intensive use of the environment in the zone immediately surrounding the new settlement. Often, distrust permeated these occupied communities and community cohesion dipped. Today, these low levels of community cohesion lead to a lack of consensus on how to use land and resources in the community. The overall goal of the paper is to point out the community level variation in the relationship between military actions, community cohesion, and the environment.

The discrepancy in PAMINA between the European image of a cross-border region and cross-border behaviour

Subsidizing cross-border regions is a method to close the gap between citizens and the European Union. This analysis of PAMINA, a cross-border region in the Rhine Valley near Karlsruhe, discusses some of the difficulties of this policy. There are structural mismatches between the scales of different cross-border relations. These vertical mismatches are linked to the differences in the horizontal logics of economic and administrative cross-border relations. Especially cross-border commuting, made possible by European economic integration, has improved the daily life of many inhabitants of this region. Paradoxically this regional success of European economic integration is disconnected from the EU funded cross-border region. They not only relate to different scales, but the same spatial asymmetry generating this cross-border behaviour hinders administrative cross-border cooperation in PAMINA.

Imagining the border and Southern spaces: Cinematic explorations of race and gender

For some time the US-Mexico border has been a symbol – and site – of conflict, collaboration, and transnational mobility. Related to the border, the topic of undocumented immigration, and Mexican migrants in particular, has received considerable attention in US mainstream media. Cinema in particular, provides a context for producing and interrogating discourses of nationalism, nativism, and fear. The cinematic examples I draw on illustrate an ongoing fear (and terror) about borders and border crossing of various forms. In this paper I explore how narratives of borders and nationhood are mapped onto immigrant bodies and border spaces through specific filmic representations. In order to undertake this study I focus on three cinematic examples exploring immigration at the US-Mexico border – Touch of Evil, The Border and Lone Star. I examine how concepts of borders, race, and gender, and tropes of ‘The South’ are reterritorialized around immigrant bodies and specific locales. I argue that an inability to control and ‘fix’ boundaries around possible ‘threats’ to specific US spaces and identities is counteracted by displacing this fear onto more easily marked targets that are viewed as posing challenges to US national (and personal) security, i.e., undocumented immigrants. At the same time, cinematic images illustrate that the threats and spaces for immigrants themselves become increasingly marginalized, blurred, and frequently erased. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Pathways,motivations and challenges: contemporary Tuvaluan migration to New Zealand

The global climate change literature suggests that at some point in the future it is possible that low-lying areas may be drowned due to rising sea levels, and a number of Pacific Ocean states could be particularly vulnerable. It is increasingly evident that the emerging scenario of environmental change has compounded more established push–pull factors leading to migration, and has provided a new imperative for migration decision-making. By interrogating the proposition that there is a clear distinction between the policy categories of ‘migrants’ and ‘refugees,’ we examine a hitherto un-defined group of Tuvaluan migrants whose movement is in response to environmental change and possible climate change effects. The paper examines Tuvaluan migration to New Zealand through various immigration schemes for permanent residency, with an emphasis on the International/Humanitarian stream.     

Surviving in the periphery of the town — the living conditions of sahelian drought refugees in Mopti (Republic of Mali)

This article intends to describe the social situation and living conditions of the drought refugees living in the periphery of Mopti. The complex phenomenon of ‘poverty’ and of social discrimination is explained by different indicators (kind of ‘informal economy’, kind of dwelling, composition of food, hygienic situation). In contemporary Africa hunger has become a problem of those people who have lost their original social and economic roots. This holds expecially true for the drought refugees. The transformation of nomads and peasants into proletarian and dependent outcasts will be demonstrated.     

中国滇西-泰国地区侏罗纪——第四纪盆地发育及其对比研究

 侏罗纪时东南亚大陆上形成两个大盆地,西为海相盆地,东为陆相红盆。白垩纪时大盆地闭合或解体。第三纪出现裂谷盆地,其发育受燕山期构造格局控制;拉张应力自南向北变弱,裂谷发育自南向北变晚。第四纪为上叠盆地阶段。滇西与泰国各时期盆地的对比研究有助于更好地认识其演化特征,恢复东南亚大陆侏罗纪以来不断碎裂、局部解体的历史。     

Refugees and village renewal in Yugoslavia

Using statistics collected by UNHCR and the Serbian government, the paper examines aspects of the refugee problem in FR Yugoslavia whose war-affected population amounted to 646 066 persons in 1996 (a figure that is almost certainly an underestimate). Relatively few refugees will return to their homes even with a political settlement because so many homes are damaged or destroyed. Many people would like to settle in Western Europe and some have already succeeded (especially in Scandinavia where asylum seekers from Former Yugoslavia accounted for 80 percent of the applications in January-September 1993). But regulations are being tightened and asylum seekers are now facing deportation. Housing refugees in FRY is expensive (only 350 refugees got new homes and permanent citizenship in 1994), but some exchanges have been arranged between Serbs arriving from Croatia and Croats established in Vojvodina who are willing to move in the opposite direction. The most promising solution discussed in the paper is resettlement in border villages which have experienced steady depopulation since the Second World War. Houses are available for refurbishment and arable land is cheap. The resettlement of refugee farmers could make an immediate impact on food production and over the longer term there could be sustained economic growth in the context of a newly-constituted Euroregion. Such a strategy would make a virtue out of necessity by helping the refugees and the border regions which have had their potential enhanced by cross-border cooperation. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

中国滇西-泰国地区侏罗纪——第四纪盆地发育及其对比研究

侏罗纪时东南亚大陆上形成两个大盆地,西为海相盆地,东为陆相红盆。白垩纪时大盆地闭合或解体。第三纪出现裂谷盆地,其发育受燕山期构造格局控制;拉张应力自南向北变弱,裂谷发育自南向北变晚。第四纪为上叠盆地阶段。滇西与泰国各时期盆地的对比研究有助于更好地认识其演化特征,恢复东南亚大陆侏罗纪以来不断碎裂、局部解体的历史。     

Analytic hierarchy models for regional groundwater monitoring well allocation in Southeast Asian countries and South Korea

Groundwater has played an important role in economic development in Southeast Asian countries, but some problems caused by nature or human actions such as contamination, over pumping, and land subsidence bring the necessity of more systematic groundwater monitoring wells. The analytical hierarchy process with pairwise comparison was used to allocate and organize the regional groundwater monitoring wells in five regions, Thailand, Cambodia, East/West Malaysia, and South Korea. Five different multi criteria decision models, which were composed of three primary criteria and eight secondary criteria, were developed based on the answers of the questionnaire from 76 groundwater experts in Thailand, 100 in Cambodia, 101 in East Malaysia, 87 in West Malaysia, and 93 in South Korea. It was revealed that the weights of model criteria for each country, which also represent relative importance on groundwater monitoring, were different according to the diverse groundwater situation. The most important factor to determine the number of monitoring well was ‘number of households using only groundwater as a water source’ for Thailand and South Korea, ‘number of contamination sources’ for Cambodia, ‘amount of groundwater use for drinking-water supply’ for East Malaysia, and ‘number of wells with contaminated water’ for West Malaysia.     

The creation and consequences of international refugees: Politics,military and geography

Worldwide, the number and the occurrence of events that create international refugees has been increasing dramatically for at least the past fifty years. Analysis of the distribution of the causes and location of refugees has revealed that refugees more often result from military actions than natural disasters. In many instances, the creation of international refugees is a conscious political and military policy, a practice that seems to be increasing. More importantly, some geographic areas seem to be continuing core areas of such practices. Finally, regardless of their cause, refugees present specific problems to national control of population and territory. States that have been open to refugee settlement seldom are neighbor states and many now find their own populations rebelling against continued aid in the form of increased immigration. Most often, contiguous states are unwilling hosts as well as unwilling sites of refugee camps. Such circumstances can cause serious social, political as well as potential military consequences.     

Assessment of mercury mobility and bioavailability by fractionation method in sediments from coastal zone inundated by the 26 December 2004 tsunami in Thailand

The 26 December 2004 tsunami covered significant portion of a coastal zone with a blanket of potentially contaminated sediments. In this report are presented results on mercury concentrations in sediments deposited by the tsunami in a coastal zone of Thailand. Since the total mercury concentrations are insufficient to assess mercury mobility and bioavailability in sediment, its fractionation was applied. Sediments were sampled within 50 days after the event and analyzed by sequential extraction method. The procedure of sequential extraction involved five subsequent stages performed with solutions of chloroform, deionized water, 0.5 M HCl, 0.2 M NaOH, and aqua regia. The mean concentration of total mercury in sediments was 119 ± 50 ng g⁻¹ dry mass (range 66–230). The fractionation revealed that mercury is mainly bound to the least bioavailable sulphides 75 ± 6% (range 62–86), organomercury compounds 14 ± 7% (range 4–26), and humic matter 9 ± 7% (range 1–27). The lowest contributions bring fractions of water-soluble mercury 0.8 ± 1.0% (range 0.1–3.6) and acid soluble mercury 0.9 ± 0.5% (range 0.2–2.1). Although, the total mercury content is similar in a reference sample and in the tsunami sediments, the highly toxic organomercury fraction contribution is higher in the latter. The results were compared with chemical and sedimentological properties of the sediments but no significant correlations were obtained between them.     

Andradite and andradite-grossular solid solutions in very low-grade regionally metamorphosed rocks in Southern New Zealand

Almost pure andradite and intermediate members of the andradite-grossular series (gros_40–49, and _47–54, py_0–3, alm_0–3, spess_0–2, hydrogarnet_0–3), often framboidal in habit, are widespread in metabasites including lavas, minor intrusions, and volcanic sandstones and breccias metamorphosed under prehnite-pumpellyite and pumpellyite-actinolite facies conditions, possibly extending into the zeolite facies. Coexisting phases include iron-rich epidotes (100 Fe*/Fe*+Al=22–34), pumpellyite, prehnite, actinolite, and chlorite, electron microprobe analyses of which are given, as well as quartz, albite, and calcite. Zoisite (100 Fe*/Fe*+Al=1–5) and iron-poor epidote (100 Fe*/Fe*+Al=11–18) occur in 2 rocks in pseudomorphs after plagioclase together with more iron-rich epidote, but not in close association with the garnets. Coexisting pumpellyite is iron-rich (FeO* 9–14%) in the prehnite-pumpellyite facies and iron-poor (FeO* 5%) in the pumpellyiteactinolite facies. Chlorites and actinolites vary widely and sympathetically in FeO/MgO+FeO ratio. Andradite is also described from a stilpnomelane-actinolite-hematite-bearing andradite quartzite of the pumpellyite-actinolite facies. Conditions of formation involved temperatures of 300 to 400 ° or less, at pressures up to a few kilobars. A wide range of oxygen fugacities is possible, but in the fluid phase was low. Grandite and chlorite are incompatible in the pumpellyite-actinolite and greenschist facies in the presence of quartz but the 2 minerals occur together in some pumpellyite-actinolite facies assemblages as a result of incomplete reaction and/or local deficiency in silica. In the greenschist facies the association is replaced by epidote-actinolite±hematite and sodic amphibole. Whereas at medium to high grades of metamorphism andradite and grandite are characteristic of skarns irrespective of , at very low grades they are found in mafic volcanic rocks and volcanogenic sediments as well as in certain cherty rocks of unusual composition, rodingites, and serpentinites, where was very low.     

Who speaks? And who listens? The relationship between planners and women’s participation in local planning in a multi-cultural urban environment

In recent decades, the dominant planning discourse has undergone a great change from a previous top-down approach towards collaborative and communicative planning. Instead of merely planning for the people in a technocratic and positivist approach, planners are increasingly expected to pay attention to the voices of the citizens. However, within this new participatory approach there is a growing post-colonial and feminist critique pointing out that not all voices are being heard. This critique sheds light on inherent power relations within the collaborative and communicative planning discourse. In particular, the voices of women in marginalised neighbourhoods are often neglected (Sandercock Towards cosmopolis. Planning for multicultural cities. New York: Wiley, 1998; Cornwall World Development, 31(8), 1325–1342, 2003; Peleman Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 94(2), 151–163, 2003; Cameron and Grant-Smith Urban Policy and Research, 23(1), 21–36, 2005). Participatory planning in marginalised housing areas demands both a great sensibility to citizens’ everyday life worlds, and a more reflexive planner role. However, the complexities of the planner’s praxis and uncertainties in the planner’s roles become an obstacle to develop a more inclusive participatory approach. Difficulties of reaching out to the whole community is often recognised, but seldom fully dealt with, neither in theory, nor in practice.

Reaction textures and P–T conditions of Opx-Crd gneisses from Karimnagar, Andhra Pradesh, India

Summary The Karimnagar granulite terrain is an integral part of the Eastern Dharwar Craton (EDC). It has received much interest because of the only reported granulite facies rocks in the EDC. These granulites contain quartz-free sapphirine-spinel-bearing granulites, kornerupine – bearing granulites, mafic granulites, orthopyroxene-cordierite gneisses, charnockites, amphibolites, dolerite dykes, granite gneisses, quartzites and banded magnetite quartzite. The orthopyroxene-cordierite gneisses occur as enclaves within granite-gneiss in association with banded magnetite quartzites, charnockites and amphibolites. The observed reaction textures, spectacular as they are, have an extraordinary information content within a tiny domain. Coronas, symplectites and resorption textures are of particular interest as they reflect discontinuous or continuous reactions under changing physical conditions. The main mineral assemblages encountered in these gneisses are orthopyroxene – cordierite – biotite – plagioclase – perthite – quartz and garnet – orthopyroxene – cordierite – biotite – quartz – plagioclase – perthite ± sillimanite. Multiphase reaction textures in conjunction with mineral chemical data in the KFMASH system indicate the following reactions: Based on chemographic relationships and petrogenetic grids in the K₂O–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O (KFMASH) system, a sequence of prograde (early stage), isothermal decompression (middle stage) and retrograde (late stage) reactions (‘back reactions’ and hydration reactions) are inferred. Relatively lower P–T estimates (0.35 GPa/550–750 °C) obtained from the different geothermobarometers are attributed to late Fe–Mg re-equilibration during cooling. Therefore, the convergence method has been applied to retrieve simultaneously the P–T conditions of the thermal peak of metamorphism. The near thermal peak condition of metamorphism estimated by the convergence method are 850 °C/0.62 GPa. The P–T estimates define a retrograde trajectory with substantial decompression.