Multifractal characteristics of spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes in intraplate and interplate regions

Introduction For a long time, the seismologists have paid great attentions to the research on the spatio- temporal distribution of earthquake intensity, which provide us with significant information for the researches on crustal stress variation, tectonic activity and earthquake risk prediction in a certain spatio-temporal region. The existing results have shown consistently that the intensity of earth- quakes is characterized by non-stability, non-linearity in temporal domain and non-uniformi…     

On stress-forecasting strategy of earthquakes from stress buildup, stress shadow and stress transfer （SSS） based on numerical approach

Global Positioning System(GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar(InSAR),used for monitoring crust deformation,are found to be very promising in earthquake prediction subject to stress-forecasting.However,it is recognized that unless we can give reasonable explanations of these curious precursory phenomena that continue to be seren-dipitously observed from time to time,such high technology of GPS or InSAR is difficult to be efficiently used.Therefore,a proper model revealing the relation between e...     

Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence

We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the north-eastern Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau since 1920.Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be drivenby dislocations of large earthquakes(M≥7.0)and secular tectonic loading.The earthquake rupture parameters suchas the fault rupture length,width,and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their sta-tistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments.Our study shows that among 20 largeearthquakes(M≥7.0)investigated,17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive,with atriggering rate of 85%.This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation oflarge earthquakes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.     

Investigation of the Calibration Function of Local Earthquake Magnitude （ ML ） in the Fujian-Taiwan Region

The author carefully selected earthquakes with M_L=4.0～5.0, 215 occurring in the crust in the Taiwan region. The attenuation characteristics of maximum displacement recorded by the Fujian digital network have been obtained by multi-analysis as follows:logA=2.07 231.1/Δ (150km≤Δ≤650km) And the corresponding expression of calibration function is, R(Δ)=3.45-231.1(1/Δ-0.01) (150km≤Δ≤650km) Then, the author determined the magnitude and its error with the data from the Fujian network using the calibration function brought forward in 1997 and the above formula for 790 earthquakes occurring in the crust in the Taiwan region from September 1997 ～ August 2005. The result indicates that the average error of the network is 0.20 with the former and 0.18 with the latter. The average error is 0.13 with the latter with station correction. Compared with the magnitude determined by Taiwan seismologists, the magnitude value with the former is lower by 0.50 on average and that with the latter is higher by 0.08 on average.     

广义地震应变能释放的多重分形特征

利用基于小波变换的多重分形谱估计方法，研究了以中国东西部地区为代表的板内地震活动和以新西兰、日本为代表的板缘地震活动广义应变能释放的多重分形特征．结果表明，中国东、西部地震活动广义应变能释放的多重分形特征有明显差别，新西兰与日本的地震活动广义应变能释放的多重分形特征也有明显不同；地震活动的多重分形特征与构造的复杂程度有关．      

Multifractal measures of earthquakes in west Taiwan

The generalized fractal dimension for epicentral distribution of earthquakes in west Taiwan is measured. The entire area is first divided into two zones, i.e., north and south zones, after which the two zones are further separated into three subzones for the former and two for the latter. The logC _q (r) versus logr function, whereC _q (r) is the generalized correlation integral andr is the distance between two epicenters, shows that a linear relation between logC _q and logr exists in the range ofr smaller thanr _c . The value ofr _c is 25 km for the north zone, 40 km for the south and 12 km for the three north subzones. The valuesr _c =25 and 40 km are almost the smallest ones of the width of epicentral distributions of the north and south zones, respectively. The value ofr _c =12 km for the three north subzones is approximately the smallest size of the cluster of epicenters. For the plots of two south subzones, the pattern of data points does not bend in the range ofr in consideration, and, thus, there is not such a critical radius. TheD _q –q relations forq=0, 1, 2,..., 15 are constructed for the two zones and five subzones. Results show significant multifractality and a spatial variation in multifractality for epicentral distributions of earthquakes in west Taiwan.     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

On stress-forecasting strategy of earthquakes from stress buildup,stress shadow and stress transfer (SSS) based on numerical approach

Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), used for monitoring crust deformation, are found to be very promising in earthquake prediction subject to stress-forecasting. However, it is recognized that unless we can give reasonable explanations of these curious precursory phenomena that continue to be serendipitously observed from time to time, such high technology of GPS or InSAR is difficult to be efficiently used. Therefore, a proper model revealing the relation between earthquake evolution and stress variation, such as the phenomena of stress buildup, stress shadow and stress transfer (SSS), is crucial to the GPS or InSAR based earthquake prediction. Here we address this question through a numerical approach of earthquake development using an intuitive physical model with a map-like configuration of discontinuous fault system. The simulation provides a physical basis for the principle of stress-forecasting of earthquakes based on SSS and for the application of GPS or InSAR in earthquake prediction. The observed SSS associated phenomena with images of stress distribution during the failure process can be continuously simulated. It is shown that the SSS are better indicators of earthquake precursors than that of seismic foreshocks, suggesting a predictability of earthquakes based on stress-forecasting strategy.     

鄂尔多斯周缘地区中强震发生前地震矩加速释放时空特征

为研究鄂尔多斯周缘地区中强地震发生前地震矩加速释放时空特征,选取去丛集后的地震目录,基于地震矩释放程度m值,对1981年以来鄂尔多斯周缘地区10例MS≥5.5中强地震进行二维时空扫描,提取与地震矩加速释放特征相关的时空尺度作为矩释放程度时空扫描模型参数,以3个月为扫描步长,对震前12个月m值及累积Benioff应变释放进行拟合计算。结果显示,震前破裂成核点附近存在显著的AMR现象,7次震例存在累积Benioff应变加速释放特征,说明鄂尔多斯周缘地区MS≥5.5地震发生前AMR现象存在一定普遍性,应用矩加速时空扫描方法具有一定优势,但仍需结合其他方法进行综合分析。     

Space-time correlations ofb values with stress release

A total of 1503 events for a 2-month period associated with am _N 2.6 rockburst is investigated for possible space-time correlations between low magnitude (–1.1 to –0.4)b values and several estimates of stress (static stress drop, apparent stress, and dynamic stress). Spatial variations of decreasingb values were found to be well correlated with increasing stress release estimates for time intervals prior to the rockburst and following the aftershock sequence. The strongest correlation tob value was with the dynamic stress drop, having correlation coefficients of 0.87 and 0.79 for the two intervals, respectively. The rockburst was found to actually occur at the intersection of the spatial coordinates corresponding to the largest gradient inb value. Based on these correlations, we conclude that the low magnitude seismicity is an indicator of the stress state within the rock mass, and can be used to study and forecast stress patterns in the vicinity of an impending major event. Time variations, however, did not show the same clear correlations and these are discussed in terms of departure from steady state conditions. Regardless, our results favour the use ofb values in a spatial, context rather than in a time analysis approach, and we consider thatb values provide valuable information regarding the changing stress conditions within the seismogenic volume.     

Recent tectonic stress field and major earthquakes of the Bohai Sea basin

Introduction The present Bohai Sea is a half-closed shallow one in the continent, located at the northeast to North China, with an area about 7.3104 km2. Geologically, it is situated in the northern North China basin and of a short development history. Previous studies (WANG, LI, 1983; Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1985; HUANG, et al, 1993) show that the Fu-jian-Lingnan uplift in the East China Sea continental shelf sank gradually into the oceanic bottom, mak…     

The principle of coupled stress release model and its application

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