区域中尺度模式对西南地区一次强降水过程的预报分析

为了认识区域数值模式对西南地区降水预报能力,探索降水预报误差原因,本文应用MICAP资料,NCEP再分析资料,FY-2E辐射亮温资料,自动站资料,西南涡加密观测资料等,针对2012年7月2～5日西南地区一次强降水过程,分析了西南区域中心运行的WRF模式和GRAPES中尺度模式的预报能力,得到：（1）两模式不同程度反映了本次强降水过程.相对而言,WRF模式的预报略好于GRAPES,得益于WRF模式对对流层中低层温度、水汽、流场等演变的较好反映.（2）两模式预报对流层中低层温度偏差总体呈现正偏差,GRAPES模式呈现较大的温度偏差,正偏差特征更显著.两模式不同程度出现空报降水,特别是在高原东南坡.GRAPES模式空报雨区特征更明显.（3）两模式预报近地层湿度较实况大,都预报高原南坡,特别是高原东南坡风场辐合、水汽场辐合偏强,可能是造成虚假降水的主要原因.（4）较实况,WRF模式预报对流层高层的高压和对流层中低层的低压系统偏强,GRAPES模式预报西南低空急流偏强（可能是引起温度正偏差的原因）,两个模式预报的对流层正涡度较深厚,辐合上升运动强,这些可能是造成降水预报偏差的原因.     

多模式对四川一次强降水过程不确定性预报分析

本文就2008年“5.12”四川大地震后,5月25~26日四川盆地出现的一次强降水过程,比较分析成都区域中心运行的3个区域(GRAPES、AREM和MM5)模式降水预报情况以及各模式预报的物理量场和大气状况的演变,得到:模式就不同起报时间,对同一时间段的降水预报效果是不一样的,初始场获取的大气信息对预报有着重要作用;模式预报的降水落区与物理量的垂直时间演变密切相关;各模式大气初始场差异及随时间演变决定了各模式降水预报差异。      

三个模式对2008年夏半年西南区降水预报效果的检验

利用AREM(-YWand SY)、T213L31、JAPAN三个模式对2008年夏半年(5~11月)西南地区(25°~34.5°N,97°~110.5°E)降水预报进行了统计检验,并对其中两次强降水过程的预报效果进行对比分析,以期了解各模式在西南地区的预报效果及特点,结果表明:(1)小雨-大雨量级JAPAN模式预报情况较好,暴雨量级T213L31、JAPAN、AREM均预报较好,大暴雨量级AREM-SY模式预报较好。(2)对西南地区的降水预报,T213L31预报偏强情况较多,AREM预报偏弱情况多,JAPAN预报相对适中。(3)在西南地区,当降水陡增(即实况降水量较前一天大一个量级以上,且雨量比前一天多5 mm以上)和其后强降水持续阶段,是各模式预报偏弱情况最可能发生的时期,同时也是各模式预报效果较差的时段。(4)三个模式在青藏高原东南缘地区均有降水空报现象,AREM模式的降水空报与其在此处存在低涡空报有关。(5)对于西南低涡这一尺度小、结构复杂的特殊天气系统,当前模式对其强度、位置和诱发的强降水预报效果仍有待提高。     

成都区域气象中心业务数值预报产品检验分析

依据国家气象中心T213、T639全球模式、成都区域中心实时运行的AREM、GRAPES和MM5中尺度数值模式预报结果,对2008年5~9月进行了日降水量和2m温度检验。结果表明:(1)模式对昆明、南京、广州、长沙、北京和郑州温度预报优于温江、兰州和拉萨站,其中拉萨站温度预报与实况偏差最大,即模式对我国中部及南部地区温度预报与实况近似程度高于西部地区。(2)东部地区中雨及以上量级降水评分高于西部,西部4个城市中以昆明站评分最高,反映模式对我国西部城市降雨预报能力偏弱。      

成都区域气象中心业务数值预报产品检验分析

依据国家气象中心T213、T639全球模式、成都区域中心实时运行的AREM、GRAPES和MM5中尺度数值模式预报结果,对2008年5～9月进行了日降水量和2m温度检验。结果表明：（1）模式对昆明、南京、广州、长沙、北京和郑州温度预报优于温江、兰州和拉萨站,其中拉萨站温度预报与实况偏差最大,即模式对我国中部及南部地区温度预报与实况近似程度高于西部地区。（2）东部地区中雨及以上量级降水评分高于西部,西部4个城市中以昆明站评分最高,反映模式对我国西部城市降雨预报能力偏弱。     

基于GRAPES数值预报模式对贵州暴雨过程的模式运用研究

利用我国新一代数值预报模式GRAPES对2004年夏季贵州3次暴雨过程进行了模拟试验，模拟结果表明，GRAPES模式对贵州夏季降水过程的模拟结果有差别，对降水过程和中尺度系统模拟较好，能模拟出降水的落区和大小分布，但对局地强降水的模拟能力较差，降水大小的模拟存在偏差，模拟的降水较实况降水偏小。     

应用GRAPES模式对贵州暴雨过程的模拟试验

利用我国新一代数值预报模式GRAPES（Global／Reglional Assimilationand Prediction Enhanced System），对2004年发生在贵州的3次强降水过程，即6月23—24日、7月17—18日和7月21—22日的暴雨过程进行了数值模拟，并与实况资料进行对比分析。模拟结果表明：GRAPES模式成功地模拟了这几次降水过程中的主要天气系统的位置和移动过程，如西南低涡的加强、较强的低空急流、低空气流辐合以及高空槽过境等，因此较好地模拟出暴雨的落区和分布特征。但对强降水的模拟与实况有一定差异，对局地暴雨的模拟偏小。模拟试验分析可见：GRAPES模式对贵州暴雨有预报能力，有较好的参考作用。     

AREM模式对"05.7"四川大暴雨的敏感性试验

利用AREM中尺度数值模式,对2005年7月8日四川盆地大暴雨天气过程进行了数值模拟,比较分析了AREM模式提供的不同降水方案、地表通量方案、地表辐射参数化方案对此次降水过程的模拟,以及对该过程中西南低涡活动特征的模拟。试验结果表明:各方案较好地反映了四川盆地西南部强降水,对其东北部的强降水模拟存在较大偏差;各方案模拟的涡度场和流场分布决定了降水区域分布;采用降水的显式云微物理过程和大尺度饱和凝结过程模拟的降水强度、低涡强度和低空急流有一定差异,后者模拟的偏强,与实况更接近;不同地表通量过程和地表辐射过程对降水、低涡和低空急流的模拟无明显差异。     

2007年主汛期武汉区域四种数值模式定量降水预报评估

利用武汉中心气象台研发的“武汉区域气象中心天气轨道业务产品检验与评估平台”,对武汉区域气象中心在业务中使用的T213、AREM、日本数值预报模式和德国数值预报模式在2007年主汛期的降水预报进行了分级降水检验以及时空分布演变综合评估。结果表明,日本数值预报模式的综合预报性能最好,AREM次好,各模式均存在对强降水预报漏报率偏大的问题;AREM模式对降水带分布和中心强度的预报与实况最接近,表现出对降水带分布较强的预报能力,其它模式对强降水中心位置及强度的预报均有一定偏差;四种数值模式对区域强降水过程的发展趋势具有较强的预报能力,但降水量预报与实况有一定的差距。     

“6.28”、“8.18”四川盆地暴雨过程的数值预报

疚难∪?001年6月28日四川盆地的首次暴雨过程和8月18日四川盆地的区域暴雨过程,比较了成都区域中心η模式和国家气象中心的HLAFS模式对其降水预报,表明数值模式对此降水过程有一定的预报能力,特别是区域η模式,无论在降水强度和落区上都较HLAFS模式预报要好.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.