The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?

We examine the initial subevent (ISE) of the M 6.7, 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake in order to discriminate between two end-member rupture initiation models: the preslip and cascade models. Final earthquake size may be predictable from an ISE's seismic signature in the preslip model but not in the cascade model. In the cascade model ISEs are simply small earthquakes that can be described as purely dynamic ruptures. In this model a large earthquake is triggered by smaller earthquakes; there is no size scaling between triggering and triggered events and a variety of stress transfer mechanisms are possible. Alternatively, in the preslip model, a large earthquake nucleates as an aseismically slipping patch in which the patch dimension grows and scales with the earthquake's ultimate size; the byproduct of this loading process is the ISE. In this model, the duration of the ISE signal scales with the ultimate size of the earthquake, suggesting that nucleation and earthquake size are determined by a more predictable, measurable, and organized process. To distinguish between these two end-member models we use short period seismograms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We address questions regarding the similarity in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of the ISE and the mainshock. We also compare the ISE's waveform characteristics to those of small earthquakes and to the beginnings of earthquakes with a range of magnitudes. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both models and thus do not discriminate between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical small earthquakes in the vicinity and more importantly, do not scale with the mainshock magnitude. These results are more consistent with the cascade model.     

Automatic recognition of damaged town buildings caused by earthquake using remote sensing information: Taking the 2001 Bhuj, India, earthquake and the 1976 Tangshan, China, earthquake as examples

Introduction As we well know, the hazard of earthquake is very wide especially in cities. The conventionalmethods to investigate the damage are difficult to meet the requirements in applications. In recentyears, with the rapid development of remote sensing, especially the successful launch and applica-tion of high-resolution commercial remote sensing satellite, it has become possible to recognize andextract damage information by using remote sensing. The researchers at home and abroad hav…     

The environment shear stress field for the 1976 Tangshan earthquake sequence

（陈培善，肖磊，白彤霞，王溪莉）Ｔｈｅｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔｓｈｅａｒｓｔｒｅｓｓｆｉｅｌｄｆｏｒｔｈｅ１９７６Ｔａｎｇｓｈａｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅ￥Ｐｅｉ－ＳｈａｎＣＨＥＮ；ＬｅｉＸＩＡＯ；Ｔｏｎｇ－ＸｉａＢＡＩａｎｄＸｉ－ＬｉＷＡ...     

Development of attenuation relation for the near fault ground motion from the characteristic earthquake

A composite source model has been used to simulate a broadband strong ground motion with an associated fault rupture process. A scenario earthquake fault model has been used to generate 1 000 earthquake events with a magni-tude of Mw8.0. The simulated results show that, for the characteristic event with a strike-slip faulting, the character istics of near fault ground motion is strongly dependent on the rupture directivity. If the distance between the sites and fault was given, the ground motion in the forward direction (Site A) is much larger than that in the backward direction (Site C) and that close to the fault (Site B). The SH waves radiated from the fault, which corresponds to the fault-normal component plays a key role in the ground motion amplification. Corresponding to the sites A, B, and C, the statistical analysis shows that the ratio of their aPG is 2.15:1.5:1 and their standard deviations are about 0.12, 0.11, and 0.13, respectively. If these results are applied in the current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), then, for the lower annual frequency of exceedance of peak ground acceleration, the predicted aPG from the hazard curve could reduce by 30% or more compared with the current PSHA model used in the developing of seismic hazard map in the USA. Therefore, with a consideration of near fault ground motion caused by the rupture directivity, the regression model used in the development of the regional attenuation relation should be modified accordingly.     

Mechanism of the June 4, 2000 Southern Sumatra, Indonesia, earthquake

Introduction The June 4, 2000 southern Sumatra, Indonesia, earthquake (16h28min26.2s UTC, 4.72, 102.09, 33 km, MS=8.0 [IRIS]) occurred under the Indian Ocean, near the Mentawai fault, along the well-known Sumatran subduction zone and the great Sumatran fault, all of which trend northwest-southeast. 1 800 houses were totally destroyed, 10 196 were heavily damaged, and 18 378 were slightly damaged by the earthquake. At least 97 people were killed, 1 900 were injured, and 122 000 were left…     

The December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M_W=9.0, earthquake and the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation

Introduction The unexpected December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, MW=9.0 earthquake, which caused devastating tsunami around the Indian Ocean, reminds seis-mologists of the difficulty of earthquake forecast and/or prediction. For seismologists this earth-quake is almost completely unexpected, because there was neither forecasting (which means the estimation of the future earthquake rate as a function of location, time, and magnitude) nor predic-tion (forecasti…     

The long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc for the April 2016 through March 2021 period,its modification and application; the Kuril–Kamchatka seismicity before and after the May 24, 2013, M 8.3 deep-focus earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk

This paper discusses results from ongoing research on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc based on the concepts of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We developed a forecast for the next 5 years (April 2016 through March 2021) for all segments of the earthquake-generating zone along the Kuril–Kamchatka arc. The 20 segments of the arc were analyzed to develop forecasts of the appropriate phases of the seismic cycle, a normalized parameter of the rate of small earthquakes (A₁₀), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes that are expected with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, the maximum expected magnitudes, and the probabilities of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. We discuss the seismic process in the Kuril–Kamchatka earthquake-generating zone before and after the deep-focus May 24, 2013 M 8.3 earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk. The results corroborate the high seismic hazard in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii and the urgent need for continuing with and expanding the ongoing work of seismic retrofitting and seismic safety enhancement. We quote practical results from applications of the method during 30 years.     

Recorded ground motion and site effects evaluation for the April 6, 2009 L��Aquila earthquake

On April 6, 2009 a M_L = 5.8 earthquake hit the city of L’Aquila on the Apennine chain in central Italy. Notwithstanding the moderate-size event the L’Aquila city and several small villages along the Aterno river valley suffered severe damage, because of the unusual strong motions, mainly due to proximity to the fault (estimated hypocentral depth of about 10 km). In this paper the main features of the recorded motion are discussed. Four accelerometric stations were located within the surface projection of the fault and recorded peak values ranging from 0.4 to 0.6 g. The recorded motions were characterised by short durations and high peak accelerations both in the horizontal and vertical directions. The strong portions of vertical and horizontal motions occurred almost simultaneously due to the short travel paths of P and S waves from the fault to the ground surface near the fault area. Hence site response analyses were performed for the sites where recording stations were located. The geotechnical subsoil model was derived by boreholes, in situ dynamic tests (D-H and SDMT) and by laboratory tests (RCT). One-dimensional numerical analyses were carried out employing the well known computer code EERA. The numerical model was calibrated, in the linear equivalent range, by comparing numerical results with the horizontal acceleration recorded components.     

Re-appraisal of earthquake catalog in the Pamir―Hindu Kush region,emphasizing the early and modern instrumental earthquake events

Journal of Seismology - The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is seismically the most dynamic and active zone that went through many devastating earthquakes. While much research is ongoing to produce seismic...     

Relocation of the 1998 Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake sequence using the double difference earthquake location algorithm

Introduction On January 10, 1998, at 11h50min Beijing Time (03h50min UTC), an earthquake of ML=6.2 occurred in the border region between the Zhangbei County and Shangyi County of Hebei Province. In total 87 events with ML3.0 were recorded by Beijing Telemetry Seismic Network (BTSN) before March of 1999. Before relocation the preliminary hypocenters determined by BTSN showed an epicentral distribution of 25 km long and 25 km wide without any predominate orientation. The epicentral a…     

Database application platform for earthquake numerical simulation

Introduction In recent years, all kinds of observation networks of seismology have been established, which have been continuously producing numerous digital information. In addition, there are many study results about 3D velocity structure model and tectonic model of crust （Huang and Zhao, 2006; Huang et al, 2003; Li and Mooney, 1998）, which are valuable for studying the inner structure of the earth and earthquake preparation process. It is badly needed to combine the observed data, experimental study and theoretical analyses results by the way of numerical simulation and develop a database and a corresponding application platform to be used by numerical simulation, and is also a significant way to promote earthquake prediction.     

Source parameters for the 2013–2015 earthquake sequence in Nógrád county,Hungary

Between 2013 June and 2015 January, 35 earthquakes with local magnitude M _L ranging from 1.1 to 4.2 occurred in Nógrád county, Hungary. This earthquake sequence represents above average seismic activity in the region and is the first one that was recorded by a significant number of three-component digital seismographs in the county. Using a Bayesian multiple-event location algorithm, we have estimated the hypocenters of 30 earthquakes with M _L ≥1.5. The events occurred in two small regions of a few squared kilometers: one to the east of Érsekvadkert and the other at Iliny. The uncertainty of the epicenters is about 1.5–1.7 km in the E-W direction and 1.8–2.1 km in the N-S direction at the 95 % confidence level. The estimated event depths are confined to the upper 3 km of the crust. We have successfully estimated the full moment tensors of 4 M _w ≥3.6 earthquakes using a probabilistic waveform inversion procedure. The non-double-couple components of the retrieved moment tensor solutions are statistically insignificant. The negligible amount of the isotropic component implies the tectonic nature of the investigated events. All of the analyzed earthquakes have strike-slip mechanism with either right-lateral slip on an approximately N-S striking or left-lateral movement on a roughly E-W striking nodal plane. The orientations of the obtained focal mechanisms are in good agreement with the main stress pattern published for the epicentral region. Both the P and T principal axes are horizontal, and the P axis is oriented along a NE-SW direction.     

Strong earthquake activity all over the world andstrong-moderate earthquake activity within and near China (April,2001~May,2001)

~~Strong earthquake activity all over the world andstrong-moderate earthquake activity within and near China (April,2001~May,2001)@陈培善     

Study of the earthquake of the January 23, 1880, in San Cristóbal,Cuba and the Guane fault

All available data on the January 23, 1880, earthquake near San Cristobal, Western Cuba, are compiled and presented here. The earthquake reached a maximum intensity of eight degrees (MSK) and caused three fatalities. It was accompanied by 65 aftershocks and was felt as far away as the Florida Keys. Twentieth century specialists has associated this event, in its day the strongest recorded (Ms = 6.2) in the region, with the Pinar fault. The Pinar fault is well expressed topographically as the boundary between the Guaniguanico Range in the north and an alluvial plain to the south. Most of the major damage caused by the earthquake was located on the alluvial plain, which in consequence has been considered the epicenter area. In the study presented here, the data compiled from the first reports of Father Benito Vines Martorell, S.J., and Pedro Salteraín y Legarra, indicate that the seismic structure was located in the alluvial plain, and that it was the Guane fault, and not the Pinar fault, that was responsible for the earthquake. The Guane fault, found below the alluvial sediments, extends NE-SW for over 110 km. Its eastern extreme, near San José de las Lajas (La Habana), is linked to another active fault which represents a seismoactive knot responsible for the earthquake of March 9, 1995 (I = 5 degrees, MSK). Seismic events of the Western Cuban region are related to the transpressive interaction of the North American and Caribbean Plates, damped by oceanic structures.     

Horizontal rotation signals detected by “G-Pisa” ring laser for the M w = 9.0, March 2011, Japan earthquake

We report the observation of the ground rotation induced by the M _w = 9.0, 11th of March 2011, Japan earthquake. The rotation measurements have been conducted with a ring laser gyroscope operating in a vertical plane, thus detecting rotations around the horizontal axis. Comparison of ground rotations with vertical accelerations from a co-located force balance accelerometer shows excellent ring laser coupling at periods longer than 100?s. Under the plane wave assumption, we derive a theoretical relationship between horizontal rotation and vertical acceleration for Rayleigh waves. Due to the oblique mounting of the gyroscope with respect to the wave direction of arrival, apparent velocities derived from the acceleration/rotation rate ratio are expected to be always larger than or equal to the true wave propagation velocity. This hypothesis is confirmed through comparison with fundamental mode, Rayleigh-wave phase velocities predicted for a standard Earth model.     

Precise determination of focal parameters for July 20, 1995 M_L=4.1 earthquake sequence in the Huailai basin

IntroductionSince the late 1970s, the quickly developed global digital seismograph network has been providing high quality recordings of large earthquakes in global scale, based on which digital seismology has made great progress. Compared with large earthquakes, moderate and small sized shocks have more frequent occurrence, and comprise clues to geological tectonics and tectonic stress field in a region. Preceding and following a large earthquake, usually occur numbers of small events that im…     

The fault plane of the 1991,Datong-Yang-gao,Shanxi,China,Ms=5.8 earthquake

Ｔｈｅｆａｕｌｔｐｌａｎｅｏｆｔｈｅ１９９１，Ｄａｔｏｎｇ－Ｙａｎｇ－ｇａｏ，Ｓｈａｎｘｉ，Ｃｈｉｎａ，Ｍｓ＝５．８ｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅＭｉｎｇＷＡＮＧ（王鸣），Ｌｉａｎ－ＱｉａｎｇＺＨＡＮＧ（张廉强）ａｎｄＰｅｉ－ＤｅＷＡＮＧ（王培德）（Ｉｎｓｔｉ...     

Strong motion characteristics of the M_w 6.6 Lushan earthquake,Sichuan,China——an insight into the spatial difference of a typical thrust fault earthquake

Near-field strong ground motions are useful for engineering seismology studies and seismic design, but dense observation networks of damaging earthquakes are still rare. In this study, based on the strong-motion data from the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake, the ground motion parameters in different spatial regions are systematically analyzed, and the contributions from different effects, like the hanging-wall effect, directivity effect, and attenuation effect are separated to the extent possible. Different engineering parameters from the observed ground motions are compared with the local design response spectra and a new attenuation relation of Western China. General results indicate that the high frequency ground motion, like the peak ground acceleration, on two sides of the fault plane is sensitive to the hanging-wall effect, whereas the low frequency ground motion, like the long period spectral acceleration, in the rupture propagation direction is affected by the directivity effect. Moreover, although the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake is not a large magnitude event, the spatial difference of ground motion is still obvious; thus, for a thrust faulting earthquake, in addition to the hanging effect, the directivity effect should also be considered.