NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF INFLUENCE OF STRATOSPHERIC METHANE ON TROPICAL WATER VAPOR AND TEMPERATURE

Climatic c haracteristics of tropical stratospheric methane have been well researched using various satellite data, and numerical simulations have furtherly conducted using chemical climatic models, while the impact of tropica1 stratospheric methane oxidation on tropical distribution of water vapor is not paid enough attention in general circulation models. Parameterization of methane oxidation is taken into account to deal with the chemical moisturizing action due to the methane oxidation in this paper. Numerical simulation and analysis of the influence of stratospheric methane on the prediction of tropical stratospheric moisture and temperature fields using general circulation model is conducted using heavy storm cases including a heavy rain in South China and a typhoon caused tropical storm. The results show obvious impact of methane oxidation on the forecasting precipitation. It is demonstrated that the stratospheric water vapor in the tropic is significantly remedied by introducing of parameterization of methane oxidation. And prediction of stratospheric temperature is accordingly modified, especially in the lower stratosphere within 30°N. The verification of monthly mean of forecast anomaly correlation(ACC) and root mean square(RMS)errors over the tropics indicated that the impact of stratospheric methane is neutral as to the forecast of geopotential height, and positive to the forecast of temperature and winds over the tropics.     

基于DART +WACCM模式搭建的平流层同化、天气预报和气候预测模型研究

本论文基于WACCM（Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model）模式最新版本WACCM6和DART（Data Assimilation Research TestBed）同化工具最新版本Manhattan,开发了中高层大气温度、臭氧和水汽卫星资料的同化接口,搭建了一个包含完整平流层过程的数值同化、天气预报和短期气候预测模型（此后简称模型）;本模型对2020年3～4月平流层大气变化进行了同化观测资料的模拟,并以同化试验输出的分析场作为初值,对5～6月的平流层大气进行了0～30天天气尺度预报以及31～60天短期气候尺度预测的回报试验。结果表明:本模型能较好地重现2020年3、4月北极平流层出现的大规模臭氧损耗事件随时间的演变特征,模拟结果和Microwave Limb Sounder（MLS）卫星观测结果很接近;而未进行同化的模拟试验,虽然可以模拟出北极臭氧损耗现象,但是模拟的臭氧损耗规模相比MLS卫星观测结果要低很多;利用同化试验4月末输出的分析场作为初值,预报的5月北极平流层臭氧体积混合比变化与MLS卫星观测值的差值小于0.5,预测的6月北极平流层臭氧变化只在10～30 hPa之间的区域,与观测之间的差异达到了1 ppm（ppm=10?6）。本模型不但改善了北极平流层化学成分变化的模拟,也显著地提升了北极平流层温度和环流的模拟。本模型同化模拟的3～4月、预报预测的5～6月北极平流层温度和纬向风变化与Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 （MERRA2）再分析资料结果具有很好的一致性,仅在北极平流层顶部,预报预测的温度和纬向风分别与再分析资料之间的均方根误差（RMSE）约为3 K和4 m s?1。未进行同化的试验模拟的3～4月、预报预测的5～6月北极平流层的温度和纬向风与MERRA2再分析资料之间的RMSE在大部分区域都达到6 K及5 m s?1以上。从全球范围来看,本模型对平流层中低层模拟性能改善最为显著,其预报预测结果与观测值之间的差异,比未进行同化试验的结果,减少了50%以上。     

北半球春季平流层环流季节转换研究的若干进展

简要总结了近年来北半球春季平流层环流季节转换研究的若干进展。涉及平流层环流季节转换的特征、某些影响因素、与对流层环流的关系及平流层环流季节转换的应用。由于平流层季节转换早于对流层，其深入研究可为短期气候预测提供线索。     

QBO influence on extratropical predictive skill

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere is one of the most predictable aspects of the circulation anywhere in the atmosphere and can be accurately forecast for many months in advance. If the stratospheric QBO systematically (and significantly) affects the tropospheric circulation, it potentially provides a predictable signal useful for seasonal forecasting. The stratospheric QBO itself is generally not well represented in current numerical models, however, including those used for seasonal prediction and this potential may not be exploited by current numerical-model based forecast systems. The purpose of the present study is to ascertain if a knowledge of the state of the QBO can contribute to extratropical boreal winter seasonal forecast skill and, if so, to motivate further research in this area. The investigation is in the context of the second Historical Forecasting Project (HFP2), a state-of-the-art multimodel two-tier ensemble seasonal forecasting system. The first tier, consisting of a prediction of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), is followed by the second tier which is a prediction of the state of the atmosphere and surface using an AGCM initialized from atmospheric analyses and using the predicted SSTs as boundary conditions. The HFP2 forecasts are successful in capturing the extratropical effects of sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific to the extent that a linear statistical correction based on the NINO3.4 index does not provide additional extratropical skill. By contrast, knowledge of the state of the stratospheric QBO can be used statistically to add extratropical skill centred in the region of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Although the additional skill is modest, the result supports the contention that taking account of the QBO could improve extratropical seasonal forecasting skill. This might be done statistically after the fact, by forcing the QBO state into the forecast model as it runs or, preferably, by using models which correctly represent the physical processes and behaviour of the QBO.     

Verification of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for Major Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in Northern Winter from 1998/99 to 2012/13

This study reports verification results of hindcast data of four systems in the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2 S) prediction project for major stratospheric sudden warmings(MSSWs) in northern winter from 1998/99 to 2012/13. This report deals with average features across all MSSWs, and possible differences between two MSSW types(vortex displacement and split types). Results for the average features show that stratospheric forecast verifications, when further averaged among the four systems, are judge...     

CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation

Lagged ensembles from the operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal hindcast dataset are used to assess skill in forecasting interannual variability of the December–February Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find that a small but statistically significant portion of the interannual variance (>20 %) of the wintertime AO can be predicted at leads up to 2 months using lagged ensemble averages. As far as we are aware, this is the first study to demonstrate that an operational model has discernible skill in predicting AO variability on seasonal timescales. We find that the CFS forecast skill is slightly higher when a weighted ensemble is used that rewards forecast runs with the most accurate representations of October Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE), hinting that a stratospheric pathway linking October Eurasian SCE with the AO may be responsible for the model skill. However, further analysis reveals that the CFS is unable to capture many important aspects of this stratospheric mechanism. Model deficiencies identified include: (1) the CFS significantly underestimates the observed variance in October Eurasian SCE, (2) the CFS fails to translate surface pressure anomalies associated with SCE anomalies into vertically propagating waves, and (3) stratospheric AO patterns in the CFS fail to propagate downward through the tropopause to the surface. Thus, alternate boundary forcings are likely contributing to model skill. Improving model deficiencies identified in this study may lead to even more skillful predictions of wintertime AO variability in future versions of the CFS.     

Effects of Non-orographic Gravity Wave Drag on Seasonal and Medium-range Predictions in a Global Forecast Model

This study implements the parameterizations of convective and frontal gravity wave drag (GWD) with wide phase speed spectra into a global forecast model with a model top near 0.3 hPa. The new convective GWD scheme replaces the existing one that considers only a stationary convective GW, and the frontal GWD scheme is newly introduced. When the new GWD schemes are used, the Rayleigh friction, applied above 2 hPa to mimic the effects of missing GWD, is removed. The convective (frontal) GWs are generated mainly in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and winter extratropical storm track regions (extratropics where strong baroclinicity exists). The convective and frontal GWD derived from the new schemes are significant near the model top, with maxima of ~2-4 and ~26-58 m s^?1 day^?1, respectively. The differences in convective GWD between the stationary and non-stationary schemes appear mainly in the tropics and summer hemisphere, where stationary GWs cannot propagate upward. The new schemes improve the seasonal representation of stratospheric wind, through changes in both the GWD and the resolved wave forcing, which is modulated by the changed large-scale wind due to the GWD. The downward influence, in response to the changed GWD, is also positive in the tropospheric fields, such as subtropical jet and planetary-scale disturbances. For the medium-range forecasts, improved skill scores on wind speed are achieved globally with the new schemes. The improvements mostly appear only in the stratosphere during the early forecast period (~3 days) but expand to the troposphere as forecast time increases.     

北半球冬半年平流层大气低频振荡特征的研究

利用NCEP/NCAR(1970～1999年)位势高度场和风场再分析资料,通过小波分析的方法,研究并揭示了北半球冬半年平流层大气低频振荡的周期,然后通过滤波等方法,揭示了冬半年平流层大气低频振荡的空间结构、传播规律、地域分布特征及北半球低频遥相关的一些分布特征,并且与对流层大气低频振荡作比较.作者对北半球平流层大气低频振荡进行的系统分析研究结果表明:在北半球冬半年平流层,大气低频振荡十分显著,其振荡周期以60天最为显著,在垂直方向上表现出正压结构特征,在水平方向上表现为一致西传,并且以北极涛动(the arctic oscillation)占据主导地位.北半球冬半年平流层大气低频振荡主要活动区域为北极地区,并且在45°N附近还存在3个活动中心,即欧亚大陆、北太平洋和北大西洋中心.     

Meteorological conditions and polar stratospheric clouds over Yakutsk in winter 2004/05

Regular observations of polar stratospheric clouds were started at a lidar stratospheric station in the city of Yakutsk. According to lidar measurements in the winter of 2004/05, thick aerosol layers in the lower stratosphere appeared over this region quite frequently. They were episodically observed as pearl clouds. In November 2004, polar stratospheric clouds were observed at the stratospheric temperatures that were much higher than those at which particles of the polar stratospheric clouds could condense. Analysis of air-mass trajectories that simultaneously passed over Yakutsk at different altitudes on the days of polar stratospheric cloud observations showed that clouds could be formed over the Norwegian Sea at altitudes of about 18–21 km, where the stratosphere was the coldest, and then were transported to Yakutsk by wind during 4–5 days.     

中国大范围持续性极端低温事件的一类平流层前兆信号

本文利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,研究了中国大范围持续性极端低温事件(EPECE)的平流层前兆信号及其对对流层环流异常的影响。结果表明,在52个EPECE中,有17个EPECE具有一类共同的平流层前兆信号:(1)在EPECE发生前10天左右,在巴伦支海一带的100 hPa位势高度场呈现较强的正距平特征;(2)随后,该正异常环流逐渐向东移动,并在EPECE发生的前5天左右,使贝加尔湖西北侧200 hPa纬向风显著减弱。本文据此提出了关于EPECE平流层前兆信号的两个判别条件,并以这两个判别条件对1949～2009年冬季(11月至次年3月)所有逐日低频场进行了后查和检验。结果表明,上述两个判别条件对EPECE的发生日期具有一定的预测能力。本文进一步通过位涡(PV)反演探讨了平流层前期异常环流如何影响EPECE发生的物理机制。分析表明,巴伦支海附近的平流层中低层PV异常有利于该地区对流层中上层正高度异常的维持,后者强度的25%来源于前者的作用。     

1979年2月平流层持续性暖平流与阻塞形势的相互联系

本文利用1979年2月的FGGE资料,诊断分析了北半球冬季平流层内持续性暖平流与对流层阻塞形势的相互联系。分析指出:北大西洋平流层持续性暖平流提供了对流层阻塞形势形成、维持的可能机制和引起对流层内持续的暖平流强度随高度减小的形势,通过斜压机制造成北大西洋阻塞高压在对流层内形成和维持。 垂直运动场的分析表明:平流层持续性暖平流作为一种强的引导,从对流层到平流层产生强烈上升运动,在对流层上层和平流层下层高压脊后产生强的辐散,反气旋性涡度使得下游高压脊发展。文中还指出:平流层内暖平流与对流层阻塞高压同时具有持续性、区域性及准静止性的特点。     

CFSv2在湖北省梅雨特征量延伸期预报中的应用

利用NCEP的气候预报系统第二版(CFSv2)提供的逐日降水模式资料,采用集合预报方法开展区域性夏季降水预报,使用出入梅日期均方根误差(RMSE)、准确率(ACCU),梅雨期长度均方根误差(RMSE)及梅雨雨强距平符号一致率(Pc)等3种方法评估模式资料对湖北省梅雨特征量的预报能力。结果表明:入梅预报提前13 d的ACCU可达0.5以上、RMSE小于3 d,出梅预报提前14 d的ACCU可达0.5以上、RMSE小于3 d,梅雨期长度预报提前14天的RMSE小于5 d,梅雨雨强预报提前14 d的Pc可达0.5以上。梅雨特征量总体预报时效为14 d左右,CFSv2模式资料对区域性夏季降水在梅雨延伸期时段表现出一定的预报技巧。     

Reversal of monthly East Asian winter air temperature in 2020/21 and its predictability

在全球变暖的背景下,近年来东亚冬季气温存在复杂的季节内变化.本文研究了2020/21年东亚冬季气温的月际转折及可预测性.结果 表明,2020/21年东亚冬季气温前冬(2020年12月-2021年1月中旬)偏冷,后冬(2021年1月中旬-2月)偏暖.西伯利亚高压强度在前冬和后冬也出现转折变化.在前冬,由于2020年9月巴...     

Stratosphere-troposphere exchange and its specific features at extratropical latitudes

A review of the papers dealing with various aspects of stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) is presented. The development of STE concepts is described and quantitative estimates of STE obtained by different authors are given. Typical time scales and geographic features of STE are described. Special attention is given to the specific features of STE at extratropical latitudes where active vertical air transport is observed in both directions. The air ascent through the tropopause occurs there in the zones of warm conveyor belts, and the air descent takes place in the zones of stratospheric intrusions. Exchange processes in the key region including the upper troposphere and the lowermost stratosphere are described. The mechanisms of large-scale stratospheric intrusions in the systems of tropopause folds or cut-off lows are presented as well as the mechanisms of the mixing of the stratospheric air with the tropospheric one. Specific features of deep stratospheric intrusions are discussed which are based on the analysis of such indicators of stratospheric air as high concentrations of ozone and stratospheric radionuclide 7Be. Some aspects of stratosphere-troposphere energy exchange are considered.     

Observational Subseasonal Variability of the PM2.5 Concentration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area during the January 2021 Sudden Stratospheric Warming

It is still not well understood if subseasonal variability of the local PM_2.5 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region is affected by the stratospheric state. Using PM_2.5 observations and the ERA5 reanalysis, the evolution of the air quality in BTH during the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is explored. The subseasonal variability of the PM_2.5 concentration after the SSW onset is evidently enhanced. Stratospheric circumpolar easterly anomalies lasted for 53 days during the January–February 2021 SSW with two evident stratospheric pulses arriving at the ground. During the tropospheric wave weakening period and the intermittent period of dormant stratospheric pulses, the East Asian winter monsoon weakened, anomalous temperature inversion developed in the lower troposphere, anomalous surface southerlies prevailed, atmospheric moisture increased, and the boundary layer top height lowered, all of which favor the accumulation of pollutant particulates, leading to two periods of pollution processes in the BTH region. In the phase of strengthened East Asian winter monsoon around the very beginning of the SSW and another two periods when stratospheric pulses had reached the near surface, opposite-signed circulation patterns and meteorological conditions were observed, which helped to dilute and diffuse air pollutants in the BTH region. As a result, the air quality was excellent during the two periods when the stratospheric pulse had reached the near surface. The increased subseasonal variation of the regional pollutant particulates after the SSW onset highlights the important role of the stratosphere in the regional environment and provides implications for the environmental prediction.     

南亚高压研究概述及指示意义

南亚高压是行星尺度大气环流系统,是北半球对流层上部和平流层底部夏季最强大、稳定的半永久性大气活动中心,影响和制约我国乃至亚洲的天气、气候演变,有关南亚高压形成及变异规律的研究是大气科学领域的组成部分之一。文章简要回顾了我国南亚高压研究工作的若干主要进展,对比分析了不同时期的一些研究特点,在此基础上初步展望并着重指出了南亚高压研究在内蒙古地区的应用前景及对天气预报和气候预测的指示意义。     

近年平流层气溶胶模式研究综述

平流层气溶胶在全球大气的辐射与化学平衡中起着重要作用,对全球气候变化有着重要的影响。数值模拟研究是研究平流层气溶胶浓度、粒径分布及其化学组成的重要手段之一。回顾了平流层气溶胶模式的发展历程,并对现今研究中较有代表性的5种模式进行了比较,着重考察了模拟结果在OCS、SO2分布情况等方面与实测数据的相符程度。结果发现5种模式均可再现平流层气溶胶和它的主要前体气体分布的大部分特征,但同时也都存在各自的局限。最后展望了平流层气溶胶模式未来的发展方向以及需要改进的问题。     

Station-based verification of qualitative and quantitative MM5 precipitation forecasts over Northwest Himalaya (NWH)

Weather forecasts by any forecast system are verified using either distributions-oriented or measures-oriented forecast verification measures. Both the forecast verification schemes represent different aspects of the forecast quality, and advantages of them can be utilized to get better insight and to identify particular strengths (deficiencies) in the forecast performance of any forecast system. Keeping this in view, multi-faced verification (binary and continuous) of quantitative precipitation forecasts for consecutive 3 days by a Regional Meso-scale Weather Simulation Model (MM5 Model) has been carried out to get complete insight into its performance. The MM5 model forecasts at 10-km resolution for 792 days of six winters (winter 2003/2004 to winter 2008/2009) are compared with the observational data of six stations in the complex topography of Northwest Himalaya (NWH) in India. The model forecasts are verified using binary categorical forecast verification measures such as Probability of Detection, False Alarm Rate, Miss Rate, Correct Non-occurrence, Critical Success Index and Percent correct, and continuous forecast verification measures such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). BIAS is computed to know over-forecast/under-forecast tendency of a precipitation day (PT day) by the MM5 model. MAE (RMSE) of the MM5 model is computed separately for all days, PT days and no precipitation days (NPT days). MAE (RMSE) of PT days is found to be relatively larger as compared to NPT days and all days. These findings indicate that MAE (RMSE) computed separately for all days, PT days and NPT days provides better insight into the performance of the MM5 model. Results also suggest that the MM5 model shows reasonably good performance for binary forecasts (PT days/NPT days) for day 1 (0–24 h), day 2 (24–48 h) and day 3 (48–72 h). However, large errors are seen in predicting the observed precipitation amount of PT days over NWH.     

Notes and correspondence

Abstract

A series of experiments was carried out to determine the sensitivity of an operational numerical weather prediction model to increased vertical resolution and the addition of stratospheric levels. Emphasis is placed on the planetary waves, since recent theoretical investigations indicate that the structure of these waves is greatly influenced by a model's vertical configuration.

It is shown that the sensitivity is low and that only a small reduction of forecast error in the planetary waves is achieved by augmented vertical structure.     

A deep stratospheric intrusion event down to the earth’s surface of the megacity of Athens

This case study investigates a stratospheric intrusion event down to the earth’s surface (near sea-level pressure) of the greater area of Athens (23.43°E 37.58°N), which occurred on 9 October 2003 and caused a remarkable increase in surface ozone concentrations not related to photochemical production. This event is among the rare case studies investigating, on the one hand, a deep stratospheric intrusion down to the earth’s surface at near sea-level pressure and, on the other, an event affecting the near surface ozone of a megacity such as Athens. The synoptic situation is described by a deep upper lever trough at 300 and 500 hPa extending over Greece, which is related to a deep tropopause fold as revealed by vertical cross sections of potential vorticity, relative humidity, divergence and vertical velocity. The analysis of potential vorticity at several isentropic levels indicates a hook-shaped streamer of high PV values (greater than 4 pvu at the 315 K isentropic level) over southeast Europe, which coincides with a streamer of dry air as observed from satellite images of water vapor. The aforementioned structure characterizes a textbook case study of stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was used to calculate the trajectories of air particles reaching the receptor site and the fraction of particles with stratospheric origin. It reveals an important direct stratospheric impact within 1 day related to the tropopause fold described in this study with the fraction of stratospheric particles reaching maximum values of 1.9 and 4.5% for threshold values of the dynamical tropopause 2 and 1.5 pvu, respectively. Furthermore, a larger indirect aged stratospheric contribution is also revealed 4 to 5 days prior to the release, related to stratospheric intrusion events at the western Atlantic Ocean, reaching maximum values of 2.5 and 6.9% of particles crossing the 2 and 1.5 pvu potential vorticity surfaces, respectively.