汶川震前几种低频事件波形分析

列举分析了国外文献所记载的几类低频事件.选择汶川MS8.0地震主断层附近四川省部分台网宽频带数据,采用相应频段,进行带通滤波处理,检测到4种类似的低频事件波形．分别为低频震颤与滑移事件（ETS事件）,深低频地震事件(LFE事件),深低频震动事件（DLF事件）,以及超低频震动事件（VLF事件）．定位分析实例证实,汶川震前的ETS和DLF等低频事件发生在主断层附近,表明大震发生之前龙门山断裂带附近有低频事件发生,主要为ETS和VLF两类事件及少量DLF事件．因有远震记录与LFE事件时间相近,无法确认此类事件是否存在．低频事件作为天然地震目录的补充,可为大震前兆和触发机理研究提供新的探索方向．      

低频事件频谱特征分析

根据文献记录低频事件可根据频率特征划分为低频震动(LFE),超低频地震(VLE)和慢滑移事件(SSE),间歇性脉动与滑移事件(ETS),深低频震颤事件(DLF)等.随着更多低频观测资料的出现,需要对各种地面震动做出类别属性划分的深入研究结果,为未知事件的判别提供依据.     

地震前低频事件的实验研究

介绍了几种强震前超低频事件的观测证据,并通过实验,研究了产生和传播机理。初步结果表明,微破裂的集结和断层的破裂起始会出现超低频脉冲,并透射到空气中形成次声波。塑性体的冲击或超临界流体的膨胀比脆性破裂更容易激发（超）低频波,且不伴随明显高频辐射成分。这样可以较为合理地解释震前“平衡”背景下的（超）低频事件。对实验中破坏前的低频脉冲给出了断裂力学解释。断裂力学的实验和膨胀－－扩容理论证明了震前会产生断层的张裂隙,从而为超临界流体提供了运移空间。流体在运移过程中突然涨缩会激发（超）低频辐射波。讨论了改进（超）低频事件的观测条件问题。     

基于极差归一化变换的超低频地震电磁场事件提取方法研究

介绍一种高采样率超低频地震电磁场观测系统,通过对几种事件分析和提取方法的优缺点讨论,引入一种新的事件判定和提取方法,即极差归一化变换法,利用该方法对怀来地震台的超低频地震电磁场试验观测数据进行分析处理.研究结果表明:极差归一化变换法在事件阈值计算中不受观测数据幅度变化的影响,且受到背景噪声干扰的影响比较小,是一种比较有应用前景的超低频地震电磁场事件提取方法.     

浅谈超低频电磁波异常与相关地震

介绍了锦州东港电力有限公司地震台多年来应用超低频电磁信息探索地震前兆所总结出的异常形态分别与远震、近震、地方震的对应实例,揭示了ＵＬＦ电磁波异常与将要发生 地震映震的一些初步规律,说明了电磁波是地震短临预报的好方法。     

1988年亚美尼亚地震震源复杂性：慢速余滑事件的证据

我们利用多重事件的反褐积方法分析了１９８８年１２月７日的亚美尼亚斯皮塔塬远震Ｐ波和Ｓ波，以探讨震源过程。长周期远震体波表现出复杂的波形，比通常看到的同等大小的地震显得更复杂。     

JJI甚低频台站信号对太阳耀斑事件的响应特性

太阳耀斑发生时,日地空间的X射线通量会随之增大,进而影响到地球电离层的电子密度分布,导致地球-电离层波导状态发生改变,因此接收到的甚低频（VLF,Very Low Frequency）信号会表现出对应的扰动现象.2017年9月8日,位于湖北省内武汉和随州两站点的VLF接收机分别监测到与X射线太阳耀斑相关的来自日本宫崎县（130°49'E,32°04'N）的JJI甚低频台站信号（22.2 kHz）的振幅异常事件.分析当日的数据发现JJI信号的振幅对不同的太阳耀斑出现不同的响应类型,而且对于同一个耀斑,两地的信号响应类型不尽相同.通过统计2017—2019年间与太阳耀斑相关的JJI信号振幅扰动事件,发现两接收站点的JJI信号响应类型都与耀斑强度及其发生时间存在一定的关系,且呈现出四种响应类型,即两次上升下降型、先上升后下降型、下降型和上升型,但是四种响应类型的事件占比不同.拟合结果表明信号的扰动幅度与X射线通量的积分成正相关,但是两站点的线性拟合斜率存在差异.JJI信号到武汉和随州均属于近似沿纬度方向的短距离传播,且两接收站点相距较近,因此两传播路径大致相似.研究两路径上JJI信号对太阳耀斑响应的差异性有助于理解VLF信号的传播以及探索其在太阳活动监测方面的应用.

     

震源性质的时频分析与事件识别

应用时频分析技术研究了近年来发生在朝鲜半岛的核爆炸、化学爆炸与天然地震事件的识别问题,计算了上述三者的瞬时频率、瞬时振幅谱与群延迟等多项参数,提出地震与爆炸的识别指标.初步研究结果表明,对较大事件,上述三者来自震源的激发频率信息有明显差异性,核爆炸源激发的频率明显高于地震,化学爆炸最低.特别是,这些信息指标对于识别小当...     

Non-stationary frequency analysis of heavy rainfall events in southern France

Abstract

Heavy rainfall events often occur in southern French Mediterranean regions during the autumn, leading to catastrophic flood events. A non-stationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) model with climatic covariates for these heavy rainfall events is developed herein. A regional sample of events exceeding the threshold of 100 mm/d is built using daily precipitation data recorded at 44 stations over the period 1958–2008. The POT model combines a Poisson distribution for the occurrence and a generalized Pareto distribution for the magnitude of the heavy rainfall events. The selected covariates are the seasonal occurrence of southern circulation patterns for the Poisson distribution parameter, and monthly air temperature for the generalized Pareto distribution scale parameter. According to the deviance test, the non-stationary model provides a better fit to the data than a classical stationary model. Such a model incorporating climatic covariates instead of time allows one to re-evaluate the risk of extreme precipitation on a monthly and seasonal basis, and can also be used with climate model outputs to produce future scenarios. Existing scenarios of the future changes projected for the covariates included in the model are tested to evaluate the possible future changes on extreme precipitation quantiles in the study area.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed

Citation Tramblay, Y., Neppel, L., Carreau, J., and Najib, K., 2013. Non-stationary frequency analysis of heavy rainfall events in southern France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 280–294.     

Ultra low frequency electromagnetic wave anomaly and its spectrum characteristics before earthquakes

Many observations and researches show that abundant and intense ultra low frequency (ULF) electromagnetic anomalies appeare before local earthquakes. In order to understand this phenomenon systematically, the transmission property and the formation of the seismic-electric dipole are discussed in this paper. The results show that the vertical component of the ULF electric anomaly before earthquake has the properties of better penetration, less disturbance and high signal-to-noise ratio. The signal can be easily extracted and received. The anomaly should be an important way to seek for reliable short-term and imminent earthquake precursors. After the spectrum analysis of the (ULF) electric field anomalies, we found that the periods of the anomaly related to local earthquakes are from a few minutes to a dozens minutes. There is a relation between the spectrum of the anomaly and the epicentral distance. The ULF electric field anomalies strongly rely on the orientation of the seismogenic zone. The percolation electric field anomaly and its spectrum amplitude do not have obvious relation with the size of local earthquakes. Contribution No. 94A0097, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China. The English version is improved by Prof. Guo-Hua FAN, Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau.     

Source characterisation of low frequency events at Stromboli and Vulcano Islands (Isole Eolie Italy)

The discussion about the source of low frequency events generally wrecorded on active volcanoes is still open and needs deeper understanding of the phenomena involved in their generation. Most of the models view such a phenomenon as a source effect (oscillation of volcanic fluids in conduits or cracks), although a different explanation as a path or site effect exists. In the present paper we analysed 26 seismic signals recorded at Vulcano and 60 at Stromboli in order to put some constraints on the functional shape of the recorded signals. They evidence all the characteristics of the low frequency events. The spectral analysis reveals sharp peaks in the range 0.5–4 Hz, while the cepstra suggest that the signals are composed by a two-sine kind function. This suggestion is confirmed by the two-dimensional projections of the reconstructed phase space. The correlation dimension of the attractor is very close to 3 for both the volcanoes confirming the existence of a toroidal structure in the phase space. This implies that we can suggest as a model for the low frequency events source a physical mechanism very similar to a Duffing oscillator or any other quasiperiodic one. In particular in the cases of the analysed volcanoes we recognise two independent oscillations.     

德令哈地震台测震干扰频谱特征及背景分析

通过3个台站地脉动频谱特征的对比,发现德令哈地震台地脉动记录6.5-7.5 Hz频段存在明显的高频干扰.根据2008年1月至2010年10月以来该高频干扰的频谱演化规律,对其产生背景来源做初步分析,在一定程度上解释了德令哈地震台P波记录个数减少的原因.     

Performance of flood frequency pooling analysis in a low CV context

Abstract

Pooling of flood data is widely used to provide a framework to estimate design floods by the Index Flood method. Design flood estimation with this approach involves derivation of a growth curve which shows the relationship between X_T and the return period T, where X_T ?=?Q_T /Q_I and Q_I is the index flood at the site of interest. An implicit assumption with the Index Flood procedure of pooling analysis is that the X_T –T relationship is the same at all sites in a homogeneous pooling group, although this assumption would generally be violated to some extent in practical cases, i.e. some degree of heterogeneity exists. In fact, in only some cases is the homogeneity criterion effectively satisfied for Irish conditions. In this paper, the performance of the index-flood pooling analysis is assessed in the Irish low CV (coefficient of variation) hydrology context considering that heterogeneity is taken into account. It is found that the performance of the pooling method is satisfactory provided there are at least 350 station years of data included. Also it is found that, in a highly heterogeneous group, it is more desirable to have many sites with short record lengths than a smaller number of sites with long record lengths. Increased heterogeneity decreases the advantage of pooling group-based estimation over at-site estimation. Only a heterogeneity measure (H1) less than 4.0 can render the pooled estimation preferable to that obtained for at-site estimation for the estimation of 100-year flood. In moderately to highly heterogeneous regions it is preferable to conduct at-site analysis for the estimation of 100-year flood if the record length at the site concerned exceeds 50.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Carsteanu

Citation Das, S. and Cunnane, C., 2012. Performance of flood frequency pooling analysis in a low CV context. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 433–444.     

Interference effects of aircraft on earth's electromagnetic response at very low frequency and low frequency

Over the last few decades, very low frequency electromagnetics has been widely and successfully applied in mineral exploration and groundwater exploration. Many radio transmitters with strong signal‐to‐noise ratios are scattered in the very low frequency band and low frequency band. Based on experiences gained from ground measurements with the radio‐magnetotelluric technique operating in the frequency interval 1–250 kHz, broadband magnetometers have been used to cover both very low frequency (3–30 kHz) and low frequency (30–300 kHz) bands to increase the resolution of the near‐surface structure. The metallic aircraft as a conductive body will distort the magnetic signal to some extent, and thus it is important to investigate aircraft interference on the electromagnetic signal. We studied noise caused by rotation of an aircraft and the aircraft itself as a metallic conductive body with three methods: 3D wave polarization, determination of transmitter direction and full tipper estimation. Both very low frequency and low frequency bands were investigated. The results show that the magnetic field is independent of the aircraft at low frequencies in the very low frequency band and part of the low frequency band (below 100 kHz). At high frequencies (above 100 kHz), the signals are more greatly influenced by the aircraft, and the wave polarization directions are more scattered, as observed when the aircraft turned. Some aircraft generated noise mixed with radio transmitter signals, detected as ‘dummy’ signals by the 3D wave polarization method. The estimated scalar magnetic transfer functions are dependent on the aircraft flight directions at high frequencies, because of aircraft interference. The aircraft eigenresponse in the transfer functions (tippers) between vertical and horizontal magnetic field components was compensated for in the real part of the estimated tippers, but some unknown effect was still observed in the imaginary parts.     

Identification of uncertainty in low flow frequency analysis using Bayesian MCMC method

This study employs the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) using a quadratic approximation of the likelihood function for the evaluation of uncertainties in low flow frequency analysis using a two‐parameter Weibull distribution. The two types of prior distributions, a non‐data‐based distribution and a data‐based distribution using regional information collected from neighbouring stations, are used to establish a posterior distribution. Eight case studies using the synthetic data with a sample size of 100, generated from two‐parameter Weibull distribution, are performed to compare with results of analysis using MLE and Bayesian MCMC. Also, Bayesian MCMC and MLE are applied to 36 years of gauged data to validate the efficiency of the developed scheme. These examples illustrate the advantages of Bayesian MCMC and the limitations of MLE based on a quadratic approximation. From the point of view of uncertainty analysis, Bayesian MCMC is more effective than MLE using a quadratic approximation when the sample size is small. In particular, Bayesian MCMC method is more attractive than MLE based on a quadratic approximation because the sample size of low flow at the site of interest is mostly not enough to perform the low flow frequency analysis. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.