RegCM3模式在西北地区的应用研究Ⅱ:区域选择及参数化方案的敏感性

通过数值模拟方法,研究了降水对区域尺度、积云对流参数化等的敏感性.结果表明:由于较小区域尺度的模式内部场和大尺度分析场激发的外强迫之间有更强的束缚,这种束缚使得内外强迫更容易达到一致.小区域尺度模拟的降水型比大的区域尺度的模拟更好,但同时,大的区域尺度消弱了由于模式侧边界效应产生的虚假动力效应,模拟的降水在量值上更加接近于观测值.因此,进行区域气候模拟时,须根据需要对模式区域进行仔细的选择.结果同时表明,由于Grell方案倾向于模拟更多的对流降水,因此Kuo-Anthes方案对西北地区降水型和量值的模拟比Grell方案更接近于实际.由于地形对于降水的重要意义,在复杂地形下进行区域气候模拟时有必要在模式中仔细描述地形.     

RegCM3模式在西北地区的应用研究I:对极端干旱事件的模拟

为了检验区域气候模式RegCM3在西北地区的模拟能力,对2001年夏季西北地区极端干旱事件进行了模拟.结果表明:模式能很好地再现西北地区主要的环流特征和温度及降水的变化情况,主要的偏差在于高原上低压中心的模拟偏低,对西北东部对流层低层位势高度的模拟偏高.区域平均的温度模拟存在着1~3℃的冷偏差,偏差产生的原因与地表净辐射的负偏差有关.月降水量模拟远远偏大,最小的百分比偏差也达到了30%.模拟结果同时表明,由于受模式初始场的影响,6月降水和气温的模拟效果最差.RegCM3的模拟中还存在着许多问题,必须开展进一步的工作来提高模式的模拟效果,减少偏差.     

Probabilistic multi-model ensemble prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using general circulation models: A non-parametric approach

Probabilistic prediction has the ability to convey the intrinsic uncertainty of forecast that helps the decision makers to manage the climate risk more efficiently than deterministic forecasts. In recent times, probabilistic predictions obtained from the products from General Circulation Models (GCMs) have gained considerable attention. The probabilistic forecast can be generated in parametric (assuming Gaussian distribution) as well as non-parametric (counting method) ways. The present study deals with the non-parametric approach that requires no assumption about the form of the forecast distribution for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) based on the hindcast run of seven general circulation models from 1982 to 2008. Probabilistic prediction from each of the GCM products has been generated by non-parametric methods for tercile categories (viz. below normal (BN), near-normal (NN), and above normal (AN)) and evaluation of their skill is assessed against observed data. Five different types of PMME schemes have been used for combining probabilities from each GCM to improve the forecast skill as compared to the individual GCMs. These schemes are different in nature of assigning the weights for combining probabilities. After a rigorous analysis through Rank Probability Skill Score (RPSS) and relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the superiority of PMME has been established over climatological probability. It is also found that, the performances of PMME1 and PMME3 are better than all the other methods whereas PMME3 has showed more improvement over PMME1.     

Influence of different land-surface processes on Indian summer monsoon circulation

The impact of different land-surface parameterisation schemes for the simulation of monsoon circulation during a normal monsoon year over India has been analysed. For this purpose, three land-surface parameterisation schemes, the NoaH, the Multi-layer soil model and the Pleim-Xiu were tested using the latest version of the regional model (MM5) of the Pennsylvania State University (PSU)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) over the Indian summer monsoon region. With respect to different land-surface parameterisation schemes, latent and sensible heat fluxes and rainfall were estimated over the Indian region. The sensitivity of some monsoon features, such as Somali jet, tropical easterly jet and mean sea level pressure, is discussed. Although some features of the Indian summer monsoon, such as wind and mean sea level pressure, were fairly well-simulated by all three schemes, many differences were seen in the simulation of the typical characteristics of the Indian summer monsoon. It was noticed from the results that the features of the Indian summer monsoon, such as strength of the low-level westerly jet, the cross-equatorial flow and the tropical easterly jet were better simulated by NoaH compared with verification analysis than other land-surface schemes. It was also observed that the distribution of precipitation over India during the peak period of monsoon (July) was better represented with the use of the NoaH scheme than by other schemes.

集合卡尔曼滤波估计水文地质参数的局域化修正

集合卡尔曼滤波(Ensemble Kalman Filter,EnKF)作为一种有效的数据同化方法,在众多数值实验中体现优势的同时,也暴露了它使用小集合估计协方差情况下精度较低的缺陷。为了降低取样噪声对协方差估计的干扰并提高滤波精度,应用局域化函数对小集合估计的协方差进行修正,即在协方差矩阵中以舒尔积的形式增加空间距离权重以限制远距离相关。在一个二维理想孔隙承压含水层模型中的运行结果表明,局域化对集合卡尔曼滤波估计地下水参数的修正十分有效,局域化可以很好地过滤小集合估计中噪声的影响,节省计算量的同时又可以防止滤波发散。相关长度较小的水文地质参数(如对数渗透系数)更容易受到噪声的干扰,更有必要进行局域化修正。     

Quantitative assessment of precipitation seasonality and summer surface wetness using ombrotrophic sediments from an Arctic Norwegian peatland

Seasonality of precipitation is an important yet elusive climate parameter in paleoclimatological reconstructions. This parameter can be inferred qualitatively from pollen and other paleoecological methods, but is difficult to assess quantitatively. Here, we have assessed seasonality of precipitation and summer surface wetness using compound specific hydrogen and carbon isotope ratios of vascular plant leaf waxes and Sphagnum biomarkers extracted from the sediments of an ombrotrophic peatland, Bøstad Bog, Nordland, Norway. Our reconstructed precipitation seasonality and surface wetness are consistent with regional vegetation reconstructions. During the early Holocene, 11.5–7.5 ka, Fennoscandia experienced a cool, moist climate. The middle Holocene, 7.5–5.5 ka, was warm and dry, transitioning towards cooler and wetter conditions from the mid-Holocene to the present. Changes in seasonality of precipitation during the Holocene show significant coherence with changes in sea surface temperature in the Norwegian Sea, with higher SST corresponding to greater percentage of winter precipitation. Both high SST in the Norwegian Sea and increased moisture delivery to northern Europe during winter are correlated with a strong gradient between the subpolar low and subtropical high over the North Atlantic (positive North Atlantic Oscillation).     

数据同化在气候模拟中的应用——对中国西部区域气候研究的展望

现代数值模拟技术是一种把数值模型与观测资料结合起来对地球系统状态进行理想化评估的方法。除了在数值天气预报和气候分析中发挥重要作用外，数据同化技术也被应用于气候研究的许多方面，如模式初始化、确认及最优化。主要通过几个与中国西部区域气候研究紧密相关的议题，讨论了数据同化在气候模拟中的应用。并且阐述了其将面对的挑战、潜在方法学、最新研究成果和未来发展。     

梯级水电站多目标发电优化调度

以发电量和保证出力为目标建立梯级水电站的多目标发电优化调度模型,对三峡梯级中长期发电优化调度进行研究。针对传统方法求解多目标优化问题的局限,提出一种强度Pareto差分进化算法(Strength Pareto Differential Evolution,SPDE)用于求解梯级水电站的多目标发电优化调度问题。SPDE以差分进化算法(Differential Evolution,DE)为基础,采用SPEA2的适应度评价方法,并根据多目标优化的特点对DE的进化算子进行修正。同时,提出一种自适应柯西变异策略(Adaptive Cauchy Mutation,ACM)用于克服算法的早熟收敛问题。三峡梯级水电站实例研究结果表明,SPDE可同时考虑两个目标并有效处理复杂约束条件,一次运行即可得到一组在各目标分布均匀、分布范围广的非劣调度方案供决策者评价优选。     

青藏高原地面辐射对中国东部夏季降水影响的数值试验

利用CAM5模式设计敏感性试验,研究了中国东部夏季降水对青藏高原地面辐射异常变化的响应和可能的物理机制。试验结果表明：当高原北部、中部等区域夏季地面辐射减小,中国东部夏季降水整体上增多,但南部、东部沿海区域降水异常减少。青藏高原地面辐射的变化,对青藏高压、西太平洋副热带高压和季风等天气系统具有一定影响,进而影响中国东部地区的夏季降水。当青藏高原地面辐射减小,青藏高压中心位置偏西,强度减弱;东亚季风和南亚季风强度增大,中国东部大部分地区850 hPa风场强度增强;西太平洋副热带高压位置偏东,强度减弱,中国南部、东部沿海区域夏季降水受其影响而减少,但华中、华北、东北等地夏季降水整体上增多。故中国东部夏季降水异常变化与青藏高原地面辐射之间具有显著的相关关系。     

明末清初华北夏季降水年代际变化的模拟研究

明末清初中国社会动荡加剧, 王朝更迭, 伴随着华北地区较为明显的年代际气候变化。本研究使用CESM-LME(CESM Last Millennium Ensemble)模拟数据, 结合重建证据, 对明末清初华北夏季降水年代际气候变化特征和原因进行了分析。重建证据显示, 1644年华北夏季降水发生由少到多的年代际转变, 中国东部夏季降水呈"南旱北涝"的变化格局。CESM-LME集合试验成员012能够模拟出这样的年代际转变, 但模拟的变化幅度偏弱且转变发生时间略晚。模拟显示, 北太平洋出现类PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation, 太平洋年代际振荡)正位相的海温年代际异常, 引起日本海附近低压异常。同时, 热带太平洋呈现类拉尼娜型海温异常, 使得菲律宾以东洋面对流增强、降水增加, 通过北传罗斯贝波激发类东亚-太平洋遥相关, 导致西北太平洋副热带高压增强西伸和日本海附近异常低压的加强。对应于这样的环流异常, 华北有北风异常, 长江以南有南风异常, 华北地区南部水汽辐合增强, 有异常的上升运动, 华北夏季降水年代际增多, 并伴随着东亚副热带西风急流的向南移动。伴随华北夏季降水年代际转变, 华北土地承载力提高, 社会系统逐渐恢复和稳定。     

Reduced-order optimal control of water flooding using proper orthogonal decomposition

Model-based optimal control of water flooding generally involves multiple reservoir simulations, which makes it into a time-consuming process. Furthermore, if the optimization is combined with inversion, i.e., with updating of the reservoir model using production data, some form of regularization is required to cope with the ill-posedness of the inversion problem. A potential way to address these issues is through the use of proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), also known as principal component analysis, Karhunen–Loève decomposition or the method of empirical orthogonal functions. POD is a model reduction technique to generate low-order models using ‘snapshots’ from a forward simulation with the original high-order model. In this work, we addressed the scope to speed up optimization of water-flooding a heterogeneous reservoir with multiple injectors and producers. We used an adjoint-based optimal control methodology that requires multiple passes of forward simulation of the reservoir model and backward simulation of an adjoint system of equations. We developed a nested approach in which POD was first used to reduce the state space dimensions of both the forward model and the adjoint system. After obtaining an optimized injection and production strategy using the reduced-order system, we verified the results using the original, high-order model. If necessary, we repeated the optimization cycle using new reduced-order systems based on snapshots from the verification run. We tested the methodology on a reservoir model with 4050 states (2025 pressures, 2025 saturations) and an adjoint model of 4050 states (Lagrange multipliers). We obtained reduced-order models with 20–100 states only, which produced almost identical optimized flooding strategies as compared to those obtained using the high-order models. The maximum achieved reduction in computing time was 35%.     

西安城市地温与气温变化初步分析

地下浅层地温和近地表空气温度存在着必然的内在联系,地面温度变化的信息随着时间推移向下传播并叠加到稳态地温场上,因此通过对现今地温剖面的分析可以重建过去地面温度变化的历史。为了研究西安地区地下和地上的温度变化,本文在西安开展了钻孔温度测量,获得了16个钻孔的地温剖面,同时收集整理了西安气象站1951～2010年气温数据。对1951～2010年气温数据进行回归分析得到西安地区年平均气温、年平均最高气温和最低气温增温率分别为3.71 ℃/100a、2.03 ℃/100a和5.14 ℃/100a,均高于全国和全球平均水平,其中1986～2010年间平均气温增温更是显著,达到9.01 ℃/100a。从钻孔测温曲线中筛选出西安城郊6个传导型地温剖面进行分析,结果表明西安地区钻孔温度记录的地面温度变化趋势与气象台记录的气温变化趋势基本吻合。根据利用钻孔温度剖面下段回归分析得到的地表稳态温度和地温梯度以及25年间西安地区平均气温增温率推算得到钻孔理论地温剖面与实测地温数据总体上具有较好的一致性。对实测地温数据的进一步精确拟合分析显示,西安城郊6个选定的钻孔所在区域地面温度变暖分别起始于20年、24年、26年、28年、30年和30年前,对应的地表增温幅度分别为0.4 ℃、0.72 ℃、2.18 ℃、4.2 ℃、2.4 ℃和2.4 ℃。市区和周边郊区钻孔所在区域在增温幅度上存在明显的差异,市区增温强度明显高于郊区,而城郊结合部介于两者之间。     

内蒙古包头某铁矿尾矿库生态修复的植物优选研究

【研究目的】植物修复技术因其具有绿色、经济、环保的特点,在矿山生态修复中应用广泛,而调查和筛选矿山周边适应本地生境的植物物种是进行植物生态修复的关键环节。【研究方法】通过野外调查取样和室内分析测试相结合的方法,对内蒙古包头某废弃铁矿尾矿库及周边11种优势植物的重金属含量、重金属迁移富集能力及其上覆土壤重金属特征进行分析研究,以期筛选优良修复植物,为矿区生态修复提供科学依据。【研究结果】该废弃铁矿尾矿库及周边土壤Fe、Mn、Cu、Pb、Zn、Cr、Cd、F含量均远超过河套平原土壤背景值,地累积指数显示污染等级为2～7级,污染程度从轻—中度污染到极强度污染。植物地下部分各元素含量总体上高于地上部分,除Cu外各植物重金属含量大多超出了正常值范围。【结论】沙蒿和独行菜具有富集型植物特征,玉米、狗尾草、虎尾草和拂子茅属于根部囤积型,碱蓬、灰条菜、苍耳、新疆杨和红柳符合规避型植物特征。可根据植物对重金属的吸收和富集特点,科学合理地选择适宜的植物进行矿区受污染土壤植物修复。创新点：研究了废弃铁尾矿库及周边11种优势植物的重金属特征;揭示了优势植物对重金属的吸收机制。     

约900 ka前后冰期夏季风降水减弱:东北平原湖相沉积物的粒度证据

中更新世转型(mid-Pleistocene Transition,简称MPT)期间,除了冰量周期由40 ka向100 ka的特征转变之外,约900 ka以后,高纬冰量、全球海平面和大气CO₂/大洋碳库的变幅也都发生了明显变化,这些因素对东亚夏季风的演化产生了深远影响。但关于此时期东亚夏季风降水的变化趋势及其驱动机制,目前尚存在不同看法。本文在前期古地磁和光释光(optically stimulated luminescence,简称OSL)年代框架的基础上,基于东北平原QAL钻孔上部71 m的沉积物粒度重建了夏季风降水演化序列。结果表明：1)时间跨度为1180~450 ka的林甸组和令字组均为较细颗粒的湖相沉积,且林甸组明显较令字组颗粒粗;2)粒度粗的层位代表低湖面阶段,反映降水少,为冰期,反之亦然;3)小波分析显示约900 ka后,100 ka周期特征明显,为通过与深海氧同位素对比获得更精细的年龄序列奠定基础;4)约900 ka后,冰期的降水有明显减弱的趋势。高纬冰量扩张造成的全球海平面下降导致更多陆地暴露出海平面,增加了大洋水汽的输送距离,可能是降水减少的一个影响因素。大西洋经向翻转流(Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,简称AMOC)减弱,热带太平洋区域"热带辐合带"(Intertropical Convergence Zone,简称ITCZ)南移,可能是东亚夏季风降水减弱的另一重要原因。古湖相沉积能够用来重建长尺度夏季风降水变化,未来应加强东亚季风区不同区域古湖泊沉积研究,进而弥补长尺度夏季风演化研究存在的不足,这将有助于更好理解轨道尺度夏季风演化的动力机制。

     

基于元素组合特征的相似性系数法圈定异常——以南岭地区为例

强调了统计域的正确选择对区域地球化学数据分析的重要性。本文以南岭研究区的W元素原始异常作为统计域,分析得出了研究区内不同成矿类型钨矿一种量化的简单元素组合特征。以此量化的元素组合特征,并结合相似度分析方法,统计了研究区内样点与各典型钨矿元素组合特征的相似性系数,其成图结果非常准确地圈定了已知的各类型钨矿,相比W元素原始异常其准确率得到了明显提升。该方法亦可认为是对地球化学场的一种成因分解,能够准确提取其中与成矿有关的异常信息。该研究可作为区域异常结构模式研究的重要补充,也可以为扩大南岭地区钨矿找矿远景提供线索。     

Trace-element variations in an annually layered stalagmite as recorders of climatic changes and anthropogenic pollution in Central China

We analyzed variations in the Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca, REE/Ca (REE: rare earth element), Zn/Ca, and Pb/Ca ratios preserved in an annually layered stalagmite, XL21, from central China. The stalagmite record spans the 95 year period AD 1914–2008. The Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios have a significant positive correlation with the stalagmite's growth rate, suggesting that they were primarily controlled by growth-rate variations. Variations in REE/Ca ratios are consistent with local temperature changes, suggesting temperature influenced REE concentrations in the stalagmite over decadal to annual timescales. Higher temperature in this humid area can increase vegetation cover, microbial activity, and organic decomposition in the soil, resulting in enhanced pCO₂, organic matter concentration and reduced pH, and consequently increased REE mobilization from the overlying soil layer and host rock. Higher temperatures may also increase the natural Zn mobilization from the overlying soil mediated by organic matter and consequently may have led to increased Zn retention in XL21. An increasing trend is seen in the Pb/Ca ratios from XL21 since 1985, which is consistent with increased lead production in this area, and indicates an increase in mine-derived lead pollution in the local environment over the past 30 years.     

A decision support system using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for the optimal environmental reclamation of an open-pit mine

The selection of an optimal reclamation method is one of the most important factors in open-pit design and production planning. It also affects economic considerations in open-pit design as a function of plan location and depth. Furthermore, the selection is a complex multi-person, multi-criteria decision problem. The group decision-making process can be improved by applying a systematic and logical approach to assess the priorities based on the inputs of several specialists from different functional areas within the mine company. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) can be very useful in involving several decision makers with different conflicting objectives to arrive at a consensus decision. In this paper, the selection of an optimal reclamation method using an AHP-based model was evaluated for coal production in an open-pit coal mine located at Seyitomer region in Turkey. The use of the proposed model indicates that it can be applied to improve the group decision making in selecting a reclamation method that satisfies optimal specifications. Also, it is found that the decision process is systematic and using the proposed model can reduce the time taken to select a optimal method.     

Forecasting flood disasters using an accelerated genetic algorithm: Examples of two case studies for China

This article discusses a rescaled range analysis model, titled AGA-R/S, that is based on an accelerated genetic algorithm. The parameter a, Hurst index of rescaled range analysis, and the recurrent time of disaster in the next time-period, were directly computed using an accelerated genetic algorithm developed by the authors. As case studies, using the AGA-R/S model, a forecast was made of the tendency for change in a time series of annual precipitation for the city of Jinhua, China. The model also forecast flooding-disaster in the city of Wuzhou, China. Results indicate that it is a relatively efficient technique to forecast the change-tendency of flood and disaster time series using the AGA-R/S model. When time series is utilized, forecasted error of the AGA-R/S model is less than with a linear least square method. The Hurst indexes of the two cities are from 0.23 to 0.24, which indicates that these time series are fractal and relatively long-term. Their fractional Brownian motion shows anti-persistence. AGA-R/S has application in forecasting the change-tendency of other natural disaster for specific time series.