Seismic hazard in mega city Kolkata, India

The damages caused by recent earthquakes in India have been a wake up call for people to take proper mitigation measures, especially the major cities that lie in the high seismic hazard zones. Kolkata City, with thick sediment deposit (∼12 km), one of the earliest cities of India, is an area of great concern as it lies over the Bengal Basin and lies at the boundary of the seismic zones III and IV of the zonation map of India. Kolkata has been affected by the 1897 Shillong earthquake, the 1906 Calcutta earthquake, and the 1964 Calcutta earthquake. An analysis on the maximum magnitude and b-value for Kolkata City region is carried out after the preparation of earthquake catalog from various sources. Based on the tectonic set-up and seismicity of the region, five seismic zones are delineated, which can pose a threat to Kolkata in the event of an earthquake. They are broadly classified as Zone 1: Arakan-Yoma Zone (AYZ), Zone 2: Himalayan Zone (HZ), Zone 3: Shillong Plateau Zone (SPZ), Zone 4: Bay of Bengal Zone (BBZ), and Zone 5: Shield Zone (SZ). The maximum magnitude (m _max) for Zones 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 are 8.30 ± 0.51, 9.09 ± 0.58, 9.20 ± 0.51, 6.62 ± 0.43 and 6.61 ± 0.43, respectively. A probability of 10% exceedance value in 50 years is used for each zone. The probabilities of occurrences of earthquakes of different magnitudes for return periods of 50 and 100 years are computed for the five seismic zones. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) obtained for Kolkata City varies from 0.34 to 0.10 g.     

Microwave D-InSAR technique for assessment of land subsidence in Kolkata city,India

An effective microwave Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (D-InSAR) technique was used to rapidly assess the potential land subsidence with high precision by exploiting the phase difference of two temporally separated SAR data in the region of Kolkata city, India. The objective of this study is to assess land subsidence using D-InSAR technique and to delineate the regions of land subsidence caused by over exploitation of groundwater by minimising the errors by applying topographic and atmospheric corrections. The study area forms a part of Indo-Gangetic plain. Three ENVISAT Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar ?(ASAR) images of the years 2003, 2007 and 2010 were acquired to study the temporal evolution of land subsidence in the study area. The phase changes due to topography in the interferograms were removed by using Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) degital elevation model data. Medium Spectral Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) data were applied to remove the atmospheric noise in the interferogram. The deformation fringes were observed in the northern and central part of the study area where the land subsidence was 12 and 18 mm during the years of 2003–2007 and 2007–2010. The regional variation in the piezometric head compares well with the fringes of the interferogram. This confirms over extraction of groundwater is the main cause for land subsidence in this region. Hence, it is necessary to reduce groundwater pumping and to augment rainfall recharge in northern part of the study area.     

Lahar hazard micro-zonation and risk assessment in Yogyakarta city, Indonesia

Yogyakarta urban area (500,000 inhab.) is located in Central Java on the fluvio-volcanic plain beside Merapi volcano, one of the most active of the world. Since the last eruption of Merapi in November 1994, the Code river, which goes across this city, is particularly threatened by lahars (volcanic debris flows). Until now, no accurate hazard map exists and no risk assessment has been done. Therefore, we drew a detailed hazard map (1/2,000 scale), based on morphometric surveys of the Code channel and on four scenarios of discharge. An additional risk assessment revealed that about 13,000 people live at risk along this river, and that the approximate value of likely loss is US $ 52 millions. However, the risk level varies between the urban suburbs. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Rockfall hazard assessment at Ajanta Cave,Aurangabad, Maharashtra,India

The Ajanta caves are situated in Deccan Trap basalt and declared as one of the World Heritage Sites by UNESCO. The present study aims to investigate and understand the damage of caves and to protect the life of the visitors from the rockfall phenomenon at and around the caves. Information related to the detached rock mass/block was acquired by using Barton–Bandis model in Universal Distinct Element Code. Parameters for rockfall simulation were determined by rigorous field study and laboratory experiment and then calibrated some of the parameters by back analysis. RocFall 4.0 program has been used to calculate maximum bounce heights, total kinetic energies, and translational velocities of the falling blocks of different weights. The maximum bounce height varies from 14.0 to 19.0 m for the weight of the block size ranging from 500 to 2,000 kg, whereas the maximum velocity and maximum kinetic energy are 30.0 m/s and 917.66 kJ, respectively. Finally, the results of simulation have been used to find out the position of the barrier and its capacity to design the protection barrier. The barrier capacity was found to be 325 kJ for 2,000 kg of falling blocks at a height of 50.0 m.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for some parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains,India

Natural Hazards - Indo-Gangetic plains are seismically most vulnerable due to the proximity of adjacent great Himalayan earthquakes and thick alluvium deposits of the Ganga River system. As the...     

Geotechnical aspects and ground response studies in Bhuj earthquake, India

The extent of damage and affected areas in Bhuj earthquake (26th January 2001) has provided a unique opportunity to evaluate a wide range of geotechnical issues. A large area in the Rann of Kutch experienced massive liquefaction resulting in ground subsidence and lateral flow. A large number of dams in the Kutch district suffered moderate to severe damages. Many buildings were damaged and collapsed in the city of Ahmedabad situated on the bank of the Sabarmati River. In this paper, the ground response studies at a site in Ahmedabad City along with observations of geotechnical aspects such as ground cracking, sand volcanoes and liquefaction of soils associated with the Bhuj earthquake are discussed. The ground response studies indicate that the varying degree of damage to multistorey buildings in Ahmedabad in the close proximity of Sabarmati river area was essentially due to the collapse and undesirable settlement of partly saturated silty sand deposits. Large settlements are attributed to amplification of the ground and the near resonance condition. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Seismic hazard and probability assessment of Kashmir valley,northwest Himalaya,India

Seismic hazard analysis of the northwest Himalayan belt was carried out by using extreme value theory (EVT). The rate of seismicity (a value) and recurrence intervals with the given earthquake magnitude (b value) was calculated from the observed data using Gutenberg–Richter Law. The statistical evaluation of 12,125 events from 1902 to 2017 shows the increasing trend in their inter-arrival times. The frequency–magnitude relation exhibits a linear downslope trend with negative slope of 0.8277 and positive intercept of 4.6977. The empirical results showed that the annual risk probability of high magnitude earthquake M?≥?7.7 in 50 years is 88% with recurrence period of 47 years, probability of M?≤?7.5 in 50 years is 97% with recurrence period of 27 years, and probability of M?≤?6.5 in 50 years is 100% with recurrence period of 4 years. Kashmir valley, located in the NW Himalaya, encompasses a peculiar tectonic and structural setup. The patterns of the present and historical seismicity records of the valley suggest a long-term strain accumulation along NNW and SSE extensions with the decline in the seismic gap, posing a potential threat of earthquakes in the future. The Kashmir valley is characterized by the typical lithological, tectono-geomorphic, geotechnical, hydrogeological and socioeconomic settings that augment the earthquake vulnerability associated with the seismicity of the region. The cumulative impact of the various influencing parameters therefore exacerbates the seismic hazard risk of the valley to future earthquake events.     

Seismic hazard assessment and mitigation in India: an overview

The Indian subcontinent is characterized by various tectonic units viz., Himalayan collision zone in North, Indo-Burmese arc in north-east, failed rift zones in its interior in Peninsular Indian shield and Andaman Sumatra trench in south-east Indian Territory. During the last about 100 years, the country has witnessed four great and several major earthquakes. Soon after the occurrence of the first great earthquake, the Shillong earthquake (M _w: 8.1) in 1897, efforts were started to assess the seismic hazard in the country. The first such attempt was made by Geological Survey of India in 1898 and since then considerable progress has been made. The current seismic zonation map prepared and published by Bureau of Indian Standards, broadly places seismic risk in different parts of the country in four major zones. However, this map is not sufficient for the assessment of area-specific seismic risks, necessitating detailed seismic zoning, that is, microzonation for earthquake disaster mitigation and management. Recently, seismic microzonation studies are being introduced in India, and the first level seismic microzonation has already been completed for selected urban centres including, Jabalpur, Guwahati, Delhi, Bangalore, Ahmadabad, Dehradun, etc. The maps prepared for these cities are being further refined on larger scales as per the requirements, and a plan has also been firmed up for taking up microzonation of 30 selected cities, which lie in seismic zones V and IV and have a population density of half a million. The paper highlights the efforts made in India so far towards seismic hazard assessment as well as the future road map for such studies.     

Soft soil mapping using Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) for seismic hazard assessment of Chandigarh city in Himalayan foothills,north India

The populated and expanding city of Chandigarh is located in the foothills of Himalaya, near the potentially active Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). A hazard assessment for this city is consequently of major importance. Thick sediments underlies the city and that can potentially amplify the earthquake shaking and contribute to an earthquake disaster in the city. The present study applies the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) ambient noise methodology to estimate the resonance frequency of the soft sediments and to obtain a first order estimate of sediment thickness. The study indicates that the soil thickness range from 30 to 270 m and that the resonance frequencies vary from 0.236 to 1.479 Hz. A smooth correlation function between soil thickness and resonance frequency is found, indicating relatively homogeneous soil.     

Threat of land subsidence in and around Kolkata City and East Kolkata Wetlands,West Bengal,India

This paper attempts to estimate the possible rate of land subsidence of Kolkata City including Salt Lake City and the adjoining East Kolkata Wetlands located at the lower part of the deltaic alluvial plain of South Bengal basin. Demand of groundwater for drinking, agricultural and industrial purposes has increased due to rapid urbanization. The subsurface geology consists of Quaternary sediments comprising a succession of clay, silty clay and sand of various grades. Groundwater occurs mostly under confined condition except in those places where the top aquitard has been obliterated due to the scouring action of past channels. Currently, the piezometric head shows a falling trend and it may be accelerated due to further over-withdrawal of groundwater resulting in land subsidence. The estimated mean land subsidence rate is 13.53 mm/year and for 1 m drop in the piezometric head, the mean subsidence is 3.28 cm. The surface expression of the estimated land subsidence is however, cryptic because of a time lag between the settlement of the thick low-permeable aquitard at the top and its surface expression. Therefore, groundwater of the cities and wetland areas should be developed cautiously based on the groundwater potential to minimize the threat of land subsidence.     

Critical parameter investigation for earthquake hazard assessment in the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy

Probabilistic methods have been applied for the assessment of seismic hazard in a selected region of Southern Italy (Sannio-Matese). This method is mainly suitable for engineering and planning purposes and was first introduced in 1968 by Cornell and efficiently codified into a FORTRAN computer program by McGuire. Special attention is paid in this paper to the specific input parameters, i.e. completeness of data catalogues, time variability of seismic activity, different forms of frequency distributions, and regional attenuation characteristics.     

Regional attributes of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment

Accurate quantification of hurricane surge probabilities is critically important for coastal planning and design. Recently, the joint probability method has been shown to yield statistically reliable surge probabilities and has quickly become the method of choice for extreme-value surge analysis in the United States. A main disadvantage of the joint probability method is the requirement to have accurate computational surge simulations for a large array of hurricane conditions. Recently, this shortcoming has been overcome by using a variety of interpolation schemes to reduce the number of surge simulations required to an optimal sample for joint probability analysis. One interpolation scheme uses response functions, or physically based dimensionless scaling laws, that consider the relative impact of hurricane landfall position, central pressure, and storm size on surge magnitude at the location of interest. Here, the influence of regional changes in bathymetry on the physically based response function form is investigated. It will be shown that the influence of continental shelf width on surge generation along a continuous coast is coupled with the influence of storm size and that this coupled physical effect can be treated within the response functions via dimensionless scaling. The surge response function model presented here has an algebraic form for rapid calculation. This model performs well for the entire 600-km Texas coast, yielding accurate surge estimates (root-mean-square errors less than 0.22?m and R ² correlations better than 0.97) with virtually no bias (mean error magnitudes less than 0.03?m).     

Landslide hazard and risk assessment mapping of mountainous terrains - a case study from Kumaun Himalaya, India

Landslides are studied systematically in order to evaluate the nature of hazard and the damages to the human life, land, roads, buildings and other properties. This can be expressed in terms of risk, which is a function of hazard probability and damage potential. A risk map will indicate the priorities for landslide hazard management. A new approach to risk assessment mapping using a risk assessment matrix (RAM) is presented.     

Seismic hazard assessment of Chennai city considering local site effects

Chennai city suffered moderate tremors during the 2001 Bhuj and Pondicherry earthquakes and the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. After the Bhuj earthquake, Indian Standard IS: 1893 was revised and Chennai city was upgraded from zone II to zone III which leads to a substantial increase of the design ground motion parameters. Therefore, a comprehensive study is carried out to assess the seismic hazard of Chennai city based on a deterministic approach. The seismicity and seismotectonic details within a 100 km radius of the study area have been considered. The one-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out for 38 representative sites by the equivalent linear method using the SHAKE91 program to estimate the ground motion parameters considering the local site effects. The shear wave velocity profile was inferred from the corrected blow counts and it was verified with the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) test performed for a representative site. The seismic hazard is represented in terms of characteristic site period and Spectral Acceleration Ratio (SAR) contours for the entire city. It is found that structures with low natural period undergo significant amplification mostly in the central and southern parts of Chennai city due to the presence of deep soil sites with clayey or sandy deposits and the remaining parts undergo marginal amplification.     

Seismic treatment for a maximal credible earthquake in Guwahati city area of northeast India region

Strong ground motion parameters for the Guwahati city area, the capital city of the state of Assam in northeast India, are examined with the help of data accrued from local as well as worldwide network. Empirical relations are proposed for the ground motion parameters as a function of earthquake magnitude, distance, fault type, source depth and velocity characteristics of medium. Seismotectonics of the study region is examined, and a maximum credible earthquake M _S ~ 8.0 is presumed from the Brahmaputra fault, the nearest source zone in the city area. Such great/major event may cause intensity of the of 9.3 with a probability of 0,95 in the Guwahati city during time interval of 500 years. Further, the design spectrum with 67 % confidence level and the synthetic three-component accelerograms are constructed. These results are much relevant and useful for structural engineering to mitigate seismic hazards in the region.