渭干河流域暴雨融雪型洪水预报服务新技术研究

通过分析新疆渭干河流域2002年夏李特大洪水过程中的暴雨以及融雪对径流量的贡献。综合应用天气监测、雷达卫星监测、水文气象预报等手段，发现了西北地区暴雨融雪型洪水的一种新副型。并通过对渭干河流域暴雨、融雪型洪水的监测、预测及克孜尔水库防洪调控等气象服务技术问题进行综合分析，得出新疆暴雨、融雪型洪水服务的新思路、新方法、新手段。     

贵州省小流域洪水预报系统开发与应用

贵州夏季突发性山洪频繁发生,山洪灾害损失巨大。对小流域的雨情、水情进行实时监测,结合精细化的降水预报数据,并与水文模型进行耦合开发贵州小流域洪水预报系统可有效地减少山洪灾害带来的损失。贵州省小流域洪水预报系统以AreGIS为平台,依托GIS、数据库技术,利用地理信息数据和气象数据实现小流域降水、流量和水位变化的监测、预报、预警,系统可根据降水预报数据输入水文模型中模拟小流域未来相应时间段的水位和流量变化情况,当达到一定阈值之后系统会自动报警,为决策部门及时提供监测预警信息,最大限度的减少小流域陡涨洪水造成的各种损失,有效地提高贵州省小流域山洪或洪水灾害的防灾减灾能力。     

北江流域清城洪水水位短期预报方法

对北江流域面雨量分布特征与洪水组合特性进行了研究,用非线性曲线的数据拟合和卡尔曼滤波方法,建立了面雨量与洪水水位预报系统,为北江防汛部门提供准确的降水和河流水位预报。     

陕西省十流域面雨量预报系统

利用陕西省MM5V3中尺度模式,基于陕西省河流特点、面雨量计算方法开发了陕西省十流域面雨量预报系统,系统以中尺度模式降水预报所计算的面雨量为基础,人工订正的方法制作流域面雨量,对外发布和服务。该项工作是对面雨量预报客观化、定量化的一个有益的尝试。     

基于面雨量预报的长江上游洪水分级预估及其应用

基于面雨量预报和线性回归方法,建立长江上游洪水分级预估模型。在此基础上,挑选1971—2009年6—8月长江上游5个流域面雨量满足暴雨条件的203次过程,分别用一元多次方程、多元一次方程计算由暴雨产生的洪峰流量,并与实况流量增量进行对比,同时对该模型2010年汛期三次洪峰过程实时预报结果进行检验。结果表明:该预估模型对长江上游洪水分级具有一定的预估能力,其预报的宜昌洪峰流量以偏大为主,偏大(0.1～0.6)×10⁴ m³·s^-1不等;同时,对长江上游洪水分级预估的量级把握较好,72 h内量级预报准确率达100%;洪峰流量逐日滚动预报误差检验结果显示,除一天的预报相对误差超过20%外,其余预报与实况的相对误差均小于20%;长江流域水文预报台7 d面雨量定量预报产品的使用,可使宜昌洪峰预报提前5天。     

黄河上游洪灾及流域面雨量预报

通过统计分析黄河上游流域特征、洪灾特征和强降水特征及成因等 ,首先建立了强降水预报智能模型。并在此预报结论的基础上 ,利用三角形面积计算法和流域分区原理在MICAPS系统上进行二次开发 ,完成了黄河上游流域及各区段面雨量预报业务系统的建立 ,使用效果良好。     

三峡水库分流域面雨量预报检验系统研究

基于多种数值预报模式降水产品,应用编程和文字表格处理工具、OLE自动化控制等方法,采用距离平方反比格点插值、预报检验、权重平均、等值线分析和色斑图绘制等方法,将三峡水库汇水流域的面雨量预报经面雨量实况检验,以权重集合平均的方式形成面雨量预报的制作流程,编制成三峡水库分流域面雨量预报检验系统,实现三峡水库分流域面雨量预报产品自动化输出及自动评分检验等功能。系统有助于提高面雨量预报的准确性、客观性、及时性和精细化水平。     

内蒙古流域面雨量预报方法的研制

首先讨论了面雨量的概念、面雨量在气象学上的意义及面雨量的计算问题 ,在此基础上针对内蒙古四个主要流域进行了流域划分和代表站点选取 ,并利用 T10 6资料建立了四个流域的面雨量统计预报方法 ,且进行了业务化系统的建设     

MAPS数值降水预报产品在长江中上游流域面雨量预报中的应用

检验分析了湖北省ＭＡＰＳ数值降水预报产品对长江中上游嘉陵江、三峡区间东段、西段和清江流域面雨量的预报精度,并对造成空漏报的天气系统进行了分析统计分析。得到的若干结论有助于该类产品在业务预报中的应用。     

流域洪涝预报研究

提出了一个应用水文上降水产生流量过程线的变化原理,仅用降水资料来推算流域洪涝指数,用量化指标来预报未来流域洪涝强度的研究思路和方法。利用流域内测站雨量计算出流域的有效综合面雨量(考虑了前一段时间内的逐日流域面雨量的不同贡献)。复核流量(或水位)等洪涝有关资料与流域有效综合面雨量的关系,最终确定出各级洪涝指数的流域有效综合面雨量的大小。在实际预报业务中,利用流域的实况面雨量和预报面雨量计算出未来流域某日的有效综合面雨量,对其值与已确定的各级洪涝指数的有效综合面雨量大小进行比较分析,最终判断未来流域可能出现的洪涝等级和强度。     

Computation and prediction of the flood runoff of the Eastern Caucasus rivers

Analysis of observational data of the average monthly discharges, air temperatures, and precipitation totals collected at about 100 hydrological and meteorological stations before 2005 revealed that precipitation fallen on the Eastern Caucasus river basins in winter and spring plays the principal role in formation of floods that are observed in the period from April to June. The precipitation and runoff variability over the territory and altitudinal zones was studied and generalized. The hydrograph decomposition and the rivers classification according to their sources of feeding in the flooding period were performed. Analysis of correlation between the flood flow and winter and spring precipitation allowed obtaining reliable multiple regression equations that are suitable for computation and forecasting of the flood flow.     

黔南地区汛期短期气候预测方法

总结近几年汛期(6-8月,下同)预测的经验,逐步深化对短期气候变化物理过程的认识,进而不断提高短期气候预测水平。     

湄江河流域洪涝监测预警系统

本研究项目主要针对湄江河流域上游重点地域的防汛工作而展开,利用最新的集合(集成)预报和流域面雨量预报技术,结合水文关于流量、水位的洪涝预报模式,开发研制了湄江河流域洪涝监测预警系统,基于定性和定量的综合集成方法原理,探讨洪水流量、水位预测的综合分析方法,随时向湄江河防汛决策部门提供准确、客观、可靠的洪涝预警信息以及防汛决策所需的水文、气象服务信息,这对湄江河乃至全市相关县市提高气象预报决策服务效益、增强流域洪涝监测预警能力和更好地配合党政决策部门做好防灾减灾工作、提高我市可持续发展战略能力等都具有十分重大的意义。     

Bayesian prediction of minimum river runoff under nonstationary conditions of future climate change

The problem of runoff prediction taking into account the possible climate change is considered using the Bayesian approach. The proposed technique is applied to the probabilistic forecasting of minimum runoff variations on the rivers of the Volga River basin.     

The role of different links of the river net in forming winter river runoff

Results of investigations of the winter river runoff formation in the Northern Dvina River basin (without the Vychegda River basin) are under consideration. The peculiarities of the winter runoff formation are revealed from the analysis of the conditions of the runoff reduction in different parts of the river basin. A regulatory effect of the upper links of the river net on the lower links is established.     

辽河流域气候变化及对径流影响预估与评估分析

辽河流域属于气候变暖较为显著区域,增温幅度比全球和全国的增温幅度都要高。同时辽河流域也是水资源较为匮乏且需求量大的地区,因此气候变化对水资源影响问题也更值得关注。基于长期历史观测气象水文数据和未来不同情景下气候变化预估资料,建立评估气候变化与径流量的关系,预估未来气候变化对径流量的可能影响,为辽河流域应对气候变化决策提供科学依据。结果表明：1961—2020年,辽河流域气温为持续上升趋势,降水没有明显的增减趋势,但存在阶段性变化;辽河流域降水量与径流量有较好的相关关系,具有较为一致的长期变化趋势与特征,年降水量与径流量相关数达到0.6以上。日降水量与径流量相关分析表明,降水发生后次日且为大雨降水等级(即日降水量≥25 mm)时,两者相关系数可高达0.85;敏感性试验和模式模拟试验表明,径流量对气候变化有明显的响应,降水增加(减少)、气温降低(升高),则径流量增加(减少);在未来RCP8.5排放情景下气温升高趋势最为明显,未来径流量也为显著增加趋势;RCP2.6排放情景下气温增加的幅度最小,未来径流量也表现为无明显增减趋势;RCP4.5情景下,气温增加的幅度居中,未来径流量则为减少趋势。     

黔东南州6月洪涝灾害气候特征分析

利用黔东南州16个县(市)1961～2000年6月降水资料，着重从大尺度环流特征及影响系统、气候背景、4月夏季风、副热带高压和赤道辐合带等方面分析了黔东南州2000年6月降水异常多的原因，分析结果表明，以上这些因子都是造成黔东南州6月降水特多的主要因素。     

The effects of precipitation and river runoff in a coupled ice-ocean model of the Arctic

A coupled ice-ocean model of the Arctic is developed in order to study the effects of precipitation and river runoff on sea ice. A dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model is coupled to an ocean general circulation model which includes a turbulent closure scheme for vertical mixing. The model is forced by interannually varying atmospheric temperature and pressure data from 1980–1989, and spatially varying mean monthly precipitation and river runoffs. Salinity and fresh water fluxes to the ocean from ice growth, snow melt, rain, and runoffs are computed, with no artificial constraints on the ocean salinity. The modeled ice thickness is similar to the observed pattern, with the thickest ice remaining against the Canadian Archipelago throughout the year. The modeled ice drift reproduces the Beaufort gyre and Transpolar drift exiting through Fram Strait. The stable arctic halocline produced by the vertical mixing scheme isolates the surface from the Atlantic layer and reduces the vertical fluxes of heat and salinity. A sensitivity experiment with zero precipitation results in rapidly decreasing ice thickness, in response to greater ocean heat flux from a weakening of the halocline, while an experiment with doubled precipitation results in a smaller increase in ice thickness. A zero-runoff experiment results in a slower decrease in ice thickness than the zero-precipitation case, due to the decadal time scale of the transport of runoff in the model. The results suggest that decadal trends in both arctic precipitation and river runoffs, caused either by anthropogenic or natural climatic change, have the potential to exert broad-scale impacts on the arctic sea ice regime. Received: 6 February 1996 / Accepted: 4 April 1996     

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5?×?0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km² of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km² of cropland, and the change in risk varies between ?9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.     

On the problem of the Neva river flood waves identification

Based on the analysis of the measurements of hydrometeorological characteristics, the identification is corroborated of the Neva River flood waves as the baroclinic topographic waves. It is demonstrated that during the formation and maximum development of the most significant sea level rises in the Neva Bay, the stratification in the Gulf of Finland still remains pronounced despite the storm conditions. The baroclinic nature of the flood wave is indicated by the significant changes in the dispersion of currents with depth with their direction changing to the reverse one as it occurs in the first baroclinic mode wave. Directions of major axes of the standard deviation ellipses are oriented not along the isobaths as it should be in case of long gravity waves (being the longitudinal ones) but are extended across the bottom topography contours that is typical of gradient-vorticity waves assigned to the class of horizontal transverse waves.