基于Agent建模在旅游模拟研究中的回顾与展望

旅游模拟是认识旅游复杂系统内部要素相互作用及其演化发展的重要方法.国际上对旅游模拟的研究始于1970s的荒野使用模型(WUSM),经缓慢发展在1990s分化出现了Extend和RBSim两个代表性旅游模拟模型,其历史轨迹表明,基于Agent建模(ABM)将成为一种重要的旅游模拟工具.目前,旅游模拟可用的ABM平台(软件)日趋成熟,一个完整的ABM系统包括模型输入、规则及模型输出3个基本部分,其中"规则"的制定是ABM的核心,也是ABM实现对复杂系统"局部简单行为导致宏观复杂现象"进行模拟的关键.今后ABM将通过与3S技术的进一步结合和对CA模拟的深度融合而呈现更强大的旅游模拟能力,并在应用领域突破荒野旅游地游憩使用模拟的单一格局,开辟旅游者行为、旅游地演化和旅游应急管理等旅游模拟新领域.     

Geological Modeling of Gold Deposit Based on Grade Domaining Using Plurigaussian Simulation Technique

Mineral resource evaluation requires defining grade domains of an ore deposit. Common practice in mineral resource estimation consists of partitioning the ore body into several grade domains before the geostatistical modeling and estimation at unsampled locations. Many ore deposits are made up of different mineralogical ensembles such as oxide and sulfide zone: being able to model the spatial layout of the different grades is vital to good mine planning and management. This study addresses the application of the plurigaussian simulation to Sivas (Turkey) gold deposits for constructing grade domain models that reproduce the contacts between different grade domains in accordance with geologist’s interpretation. The method is based on the relationship between indicator variables from grade distributions on the Gaussian random functions chosen to represent them. Geological knowledge is incorporated into the model by the definition of the indicator variables, their truncation strategy, and the grade domain proportions. The advantages of the plurigaussian simulation are exhibited through the case study. The results indicated that the processes are seen to respect reproducing complex geometrical grades of an ore deposit by means of simulating several grade domains with different spatial structure and taking into account their global proportions. The proposed proportion model proves as simple to use in resource estimation, to account for spatial variations of the grade characteristics and their distribution across the studied area, and for the uncertainty in the grade domain proportions. The simulated models can also be incorporated into mine planning and scheduling.     

Reservoir Modeling by Data Integration via Intermediate Spaces and Artificial Intelligence Tools in MPS Simulation Frameworks

Conditioning stochastic simulations are very important in many geostatistical applications that call for the introduction of nonlinear and multiple-point data in reservoir modeling. Here, a new methodology is proposed for the incorporation of different data types into multiple-point statistics (MPS) simulation frameworks. Unlike the previous techniques that call for an approximate forward model (filter) for integration of secondary data into geologically constructed models, the proposed approach develops an intermediate space where all the primary and secondary data are easily mapped onto. Definition of the intermediate space, as may be achieved via application of artificial intelligence tools like neural networks and fuzzy inference systems, eliminates the need for using filters as in previous techniques. The applicability of the proposed approach in conditioning MPS simulations to static and geologic data is verified by modeling a real example of discrete fracture networks using conventional well-log data. The training patterns are well reproduced in the realizations, while the model is also consistent with the map of secondary data.     

Conference announcement

Conference announcement     

基于智能体和人工神经网络的元胞自动机建模及城市扩展模拟

城市扩展模拟可为城市可持续发展与国土空间规划提供参考。智能体模型(ABM)与元胞自动机(CA)结合可兼顾城市空间增长的自组织性和不同决策主体的决策过程,人工神经网络(ANN)可描述智能体与城市扩展之间复杂的非线性关系。该文基于ANN-ABM-CA耦合模型,在构建CA转换规则时基于ABM刻画人类决策行为的影响,并采用ANN挖掘不同类型的智能体在城市扩展过程中的偏好差异,同时考虑宏观和微观层面的智能体决策行为,结合城市扩展的10个驱动因素,模拟武汉市主城区2005-2015年的扩展情况,结果表明:1)相比传统的ANN-CA模型,ANN-ABM-CA模型模拟性能更优,从宏观与微观相结合的角度更好地解释了城市扩展的驱动机制,OA值为97.46%,Kappa系数为0.9176,FoM值为0.4375,结果可靠且合理;2)不同收入层级的居民智能体对城市扩展的决策偏好不同;3)武汉主城区城市扩展模式主要为边缘型扩展,洪山区西南部有少部分填充型扩展、东南部出现飞地型扩展,与实际扩展情况相符。     

Multi-scale Numerical Simulation and 3D Modeling for Deep Mineral Exploration in the Jiaojia Gold District,China

In this study, deposit- and district-scale three-dimensional (3D) fault-and-intrusion structure models were constructed, based on which a numerical simulation was implemented in the Jiaojia gold district, China. The numerical simulation of the models shows the basic metallogenic path and trap of the gold deposits using mineral system theory. The objective of this study was to delineate the uncertainty of the geometry or buffer zones of the ore-forming and ore-controlling fault-and-intrusion domains in 3D environment representing the exploration criteria extraction and the gold potential targeting in the study area. The fast Lagrangian analysis of continua in three dimensions was used as the platform to define the stress deformation fracture ore storage and the hydrothermal seepage channel zone based on the gold deposit features and metallogenic model in the study area. The validity of the numerical simulation was verified by comparing it with robust 3D geological models of the large Xincheng gold deposit. The potential targeting zones are analyzed for uncertainty and then evaluated by Boolean operation in a 3D geological model using the computer-aided design platform. The research results are summarized as follows. (1) In the pre-mineralization period, the Jiaodong fault’s left lateral movement created the Jiaojia network faults and formed a fracture zone with NW- to NNW-trending dips of 20° to 40°. (2) During the mineralization period, hydrothermal flow was associated with the intrusion geometry and features. However, it was constrained by the Jiaojia fault, which blocked the vadose flow into the upper wall rock and made the hydrothermal route close to the fault in the footwall fracture zones. (3) Three gold potential targets were identified by the numerical simulation results in the study area: the NW-trending Sizhuang gold deposit, the NW-trending zone of Jiaojia gold deposit, and the NE-trending zone of the Xincheng gold deposit. (4) The numerical simulation results show the fault-and-intrusion metallogenic domain and the hydrothermal alteration zones, which reflect the main ore-controlling and ore-forming factors of mineralization. The information obtained through the numerical simulation discussed here can be used to define exploration criteria in the study area.

     

中国三种太阳辐射起始数据分布式模拟

天文辐射、干洁大气总辐射和湿洁大气总辐射是太阳辐射模拟的3种重要起始数据。依托Iqbal Model C和起伏地形下干/湿洁大气总辐射模型,实现了水平面和起伏地形下干/湿洁大气总辐射分布式模拟。以DEM数据作为地形的综合反映,结合常规气象资料,计算了水平面和起伏地形下中国1 km×1 km分辨率日天文辐射量、干洁大气总辐射量、湿洁大气总辐射量的空间分布,并对3种太阳辐射起始数据的时空分布特征做了对比分析。结果表明：3种辐射量均遵循随纬向变化的宏观分布规律;水平面干/湿洁大气总辐射量的分布体现了海拔的影响,水平面湿洁大气总辐射量的分布还体现了水汽分布的影响;起伏地形下的3种辐射量能很好的体现坡度、坡向和地形之间相互遮蔽等局部地形特征对辐射量的影响;以干/湿洁大气总辐射作为起始数据,将有助于提高太阳总辐射的模拟精度。